SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Nature Methods”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,243 records · Page 69Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Concentration and retention of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts by marine snails demonstrate a novel mechanism for transmission of terrestrial zoonotic pathogens in coastal ecosystems

The parasite T oxoplasma gondii is an environmentally persistent pathogen that can cause fatal disease in humans, terrestrial warm-blooded animals and aquatic mammals. Although an association between T . gondii exposure and prey specialization on marine snails was identified in threatened California sea otters, the ability of kelp-dwelling snails to transmit terrestrially derived pathogens has not been previously investigated. The objective of this study was to measure concentration and retention of T . gondii by marine snails in laboratory aquaria, and to test for natural T . gondii contamination in field-collected snails. Following exposure to T . gondii -containing seawater, oocysts were detected by microscopy in snail faeces and tissues for 10 and 3 days respectively. Nested polymerase chain reaction was also applied as a method for confirming putative T . gondii oocysts detected in snail faeces and tissues by microscopy. T oxoplasma gondii was not detected in field-collected snails. Results suggest that turban snails are competent transport hosts for T . gondii . By concentrating oocysts in faecal pellets, snails may facilitate entry of T . gondii into the nearshore marine food web. This novel mechanism also represents a general pathway by which marine transmission of terrestrially derived microorganisms can be mediated via pathogen concentration and retention by benthic invertebrates.

Environmental Microbiology↗

USGS1989

Geophysical framework of the continental United States: Progress, problems, and opportunities for research

Significant progress has been made over the past five decades in determining the geophysical framework of the continental United States. Highlights include detailed maps of gravity and aeromagnetic anomalies, heat flow, crustal thickness, seismicity, state of stress, and paleomagnetic pole positions. Important tectonic insights have come from earthquake studies, and from knowledge of lithospheric structure derived from seismic reflection, refraction/wide-angle reflection, surface-wave, and teleseismic data. Additional major advances in lithospheric geophysics will depend on four key factors: the reduction of uncertainties in the measurement and interpretation of geophysical data, the widespread application of coincident geophysical methods in concert with geological investigations, the collection of a more uniform continent-scale data base for all geophysical measurements, and the investigation of topical geophysical questions regarding the physical state and properties of the lithosphere. The impracticality of repeating most geophysical field measurements introduces poorly known, but likely large, uncertainties. Since most measurements are not repeated, high priority must be given to the reduction and quantification of uncertainties in measurements and interpretations. The most productive future investigations, in terms of resolution and minimum uncertainties in interpretation, will be those that apply different geophysical methods along identical profiles or areas, and that include geological investigations as a vital ingredient. Important gaps remain in our knowledge of the geophysical framework of the United States on a continent-wide scale, including the deep conductivity structure, the nature of the Moho discontinuity, the structure of the subcrustal lithosphere, and the depth of the lithosphere/asthenosphere boundary. Most transition zones separating geologic or physiographic provinces are poorly studied, yet these zones are likely to be the locations of the most profound changes in the physical properties of the lithosphere. Application of coincident geophysical techniques is needed to study these transition zones. Several topical geophysical questions warrant special emphasis in the future. These questions include the rheology of the crust and subcrustal lithosphere; the distribution, composition, and abundance of fluids in the crust; the genesis and evolution of the Moho; the origin of crustal conductivity zones and deep crustal reflections; the evidence for seismic anisotropy; and the short-term prediction of earthquakes.

GSA Memoirs↗

USGS2010

Correction for the 17O interference in δ(13C) measurements when analyzing CO2 with stable isotope mass spectrometry

Measurements of δ( 13 C) determined on CO 2 with an isotope-ratio mass spectrometer (IRMS) must be corrected for the amount of 17 O in the CO 2 . For data consistency, this must be done using identical methods by different laboratories. This report aims at unifying data treatment for CO 2 IRMS by proposing (i) a unified set of numerical values, and (ii) a unified correction algorithm, based on a simple, linear approximation formula. Because the oxygen of natural CO 2 is derived mostly from the global water pool, it is recommended that a value of 0.528 be employed for the factor λ, which relates differences in 17 O and 18 O abundances. With the currently accepted N( 13 C)/N( 12 C) of 0.011 180(28) in VPDB (Vienna Peedee belemnite) reevaluation of data yields a value of 0.000 393(1) for the oxygen isotope ratio N( 17 O)/N( 16 O) of the evolved CO 2 . The ratio of these quantities, a ratio of isotope ratios, is essential for the 17 O abundance correction: [N( 17 O)/N( 16 O)]/[N( 13 C)/N( 12 C)] = 0.035 16(8). The equation [δ( 13 C) ≈ 45 δ VPDB-CO2 + 2 17 R/ 13 R ( 45 δ VPDB-CO2 – λ 46 δ VPDB-CO2 )] closely approximates δ( 13 C) values with less than 0.010 ‰ deviation for normal oxygen-bearing materials and no more than 0.026 ‰ in extreme cases. Other materials containing oxygen of non-mass-dependent isotope composition require a more specific data treatment. A similar linear approximation is also suggested for δ( 18 O). The linear approximations are easy to implement in a data spreadsheet, and also help in generating a simplified uncertainty budget.

Pure and Applied Chemistry↗

USGS2012

Florida Bay salinity and Everglades wetlands hydrology circa 1900 CE: A compilation of paleoecology-based statistical modeling analyses

Throughout the 20th century, the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of south Florida was greatly altered by human activities. Construction of water-control structures and facilities altered the natural hydrologic patterns of the south Florida region and consequently impacted the coastal ecosystem. Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem is guided by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), which is attempting to reverse some of the impacts of water management. In order to achieve this goal, it is essential to understand the predevelopment conditions (circa 1900 Common Era, CE) of the natural system, including the estuaries. The purpose of this report is to use empirical data derived from analyses of estuarine sediment cores and observations of modern hydrologic and salinity conditions to provide information on the natural system circa 1900 CE. A three-phase approach, developed in 2009, couples paleosalinity estimates derived from sediment cores to upstream hydrology using statistical models prepared from existing monitoring data. Results presented here update and improve previous analyses. A statistical method of estimating the paleosalinity from the core information improves the previous assemblage analyses, and the system of linear regression models was significantly upgraded and expanded. The upgraded method of coupled paleosalinity and hydrologic models was applied to the analysis of the circa-1900 CE segments of five estuarine sediment cores collected in Florida Bay. Comparisons of the observed mean stage (water level) data to the paleoecology-based model's averaged output show that the estimated stage in the Everglades wetlands was 0.3 to 1.6 feet higher at different locations. Observed mean flow data compared to the paleoecology-based model output show an estimated flow into Shark River Slough at Tamiami Trail of 401 to 2,539 cubic feet per second (cfs) higher than existing flows, and at Taylor Slough Bridge an estimated flow of 48 to 218 cfs above existing flows. For salinity in Florida Bay, the difference between paleoecology-based and observed mean salinity varies across the bay, from an aggregated average salinity of 14.7 less than existing in the northeastern basin to 1.0 less than existing in the western basin near the transition into the Gulf of Mexico. When the salinity differences are compared by region, the difference between paleoecology-based conditions and existing conditions are spatially consistent.

Forida↗

USGS2026

Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme—A transdisciplinary approach to address the challenge of distributed volcanism in an urban environment

The Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme was launched in 2008 to address the challenges associated with monogenetic volcanism in an urban setting and to enhance volcanic risk management in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland in Aotearoa New Zealand. It is a multi-agency, increasingly transdisciplinary (defined here as research that transcends traditional disciplinary boundaries by integrating diverse types of knowledge, perspectives, and methods from academic and non-academic participants to create novel solutions to complex problems), and collaborative research program jointly led by Waipapa Taumata Rau University of Auckland and Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ; formerly GNS Science), with core funding from Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC; formerly the Earthquake Commission, EQC) and Te Kaunihera o Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland Council (AC). The primary research focus of DEVORA is to investigate the geologic history, volcanic hazards, and risk posed by the basaltic intraplate Auckland Volcanic Field. Disruption from ash fall and gas from other Aotearoa New Zealand volcanoes is also considered. DEVORA’s work to explore exposure and vulnerability in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland is also useful for assessing risks from other non-volcanic natural hazards, such as seismic and tsunami hazards. The greater Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland region has an ethnically and socio-economically diverse population of approximately 1.7 million, representing about one-third of the Aotearoa New Zealand population, and hosts critical infrastructure of national significance. The size and nature of the populace, consequential economic base, and important infrastructure within Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland mean that the effects of a volcanic eruption would be felt nationally, including through the disruption of air travel to Aotearoa New Zealand. The hazards from such an eruption could potentially affect hundreds of thousands of people, businesses, and lifelines (critical infrastructure). A considerable challenge for emergency and risk managers is the monogenetic nature of the volcanic field. It is not known where or when the next eruption will occur, how much warning we may get before an eruption, nor how an eruption and its effects might unfold. In this contribution, we highlight the concept and collaborative intent of the DEVORA Programme and show how it has evolved over the 16 years since its inception. We describe how DEVORA has unified more than 100 researchers (including more than 50 graduate students) and numerous stakeholders to address key issues facing Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland and describe how research findings are being implemented into policy and communicated to stakeholder agencies and the public. We also illustrate the broader influence of the DEVORA Programme and provide some learnings that might benefit others embarking on similar integrated projects, especially those focused on distributed volcanism in and near populated areas.

Auckland↗

USGS2021

Identification of bacteria in groundwater used for domestic supply in the southeast San Joaquin Valley, California, 2014

Groundwater is an important source of drinking water in California. Water-borne diseases caused by microbial contamination are a growing concern. The MI test, a membrane filtration method for the chromogenic/fluorogenic detection of total coliforms and Escherichia coli , was used for samples collected January to April 2014 from 42 domestic wells in the southeastern San Joaquin Valley. The wells were sampled as part of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Program Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP), a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the California State Water Resources Control Board. Polymerase chain reaction analysis and sequencing of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) were used for 34 target and nontarget colonies that grew on the MI media from samples collected from 13 of the domestic wells to identify what genera of bacteria could exist in groundwater used by domestic wells. Gene sequences obtained using the Sanger method were entered into the basic local alignment search tool (BLAST) database, and 17 genera of bacteria were identified. Of these, 13 genera contain species that are human pathogens or opportunistic human pathogens. All the genera that include human pathogens are naturally present in soil, plants, or water; one of the pathogens also can be found in fecal matter. Six of the human pathogens were from non-target colony growth on the MI media. Target and non-target microbial growth on MI media are indicators of the possible presence of pathogenic bacteria even if the bacteria naturally are from soil rather than from a fecal source.

California↗

USGS2025

Channel and floodplain cross-section and bed-elevation analyses of the Green River in Echo, Island, and Rainbow Parks, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah

This report by the U.S. Geological Survey focuses on describing geomorphic changes in the alluvial segments of the Green River within Echo, Island, and Rainbow Parks of Dinosaur National Monument, between the 1990s and 2019. Substantial channel change occurred within these meandering alluvial segments following the construction and closure of Flaming Gorge Dam in 1962. Geomorphic analyses in the early 1990s documented this change, but variations in dam operations, climate, and the natural sand supply from the Yampa River have since occurred. It was unclear whether channel change within those meandering alluvial segments had continued since the early 1990s; hence, our study provides an update to previous work. This study used three primary methods to quantify the amount and style of channel change that occurred within those alluvial segments of the Green River: (1) digital aerial-photograph analyses, (2) surveys of alluvial topography in the 1990s and 2019 at fixed cross-section locations, and (3) surveys of channel bathymetry in 1998 and 2019. Our analyses show that channel narrowing has continued, with declines in channel width of 4 percent in Echo Park, 16 percent in Island Park, and 15 percent in Rainbow Park from 1993 through 2019. In 11 of the 15 cross sections examined, vertical accretion of sediment on the floodplain and lateral accretion of sediment on the channel margins led to net sediment deposition and a loss of cross-sectional area. Mean changes in bed elevations showed slight erosion; however, bed elevations were considered stable within the bounds of measurement uncertainty and annual variability within the study area. These results show that channel change has continued to occur in these alluvial segments of the Green River from 1993 through 2019, with the dominant changes including sediment deposition and channel narrowing. Although changes in the operations of Flaming Gorge Dam have occurred, these changes have had little effect on flood peak or duration in the segment of the Green River downstream from its confluence with the Yampa River. Instead, ongoing channel change is likely driven by the amount of sediment supplied from the Yampa River, the duration and magnitude of the combined annual spring snowmelt flood from both the Green River upstream from the Yampa River confluence and the Yampa River, and the capacity of this flood to convey the supplied sediment through these wider alluvial reaches.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS1992

Techniques for estimating peak-flow frequency relations for North Dakota streams

This report presents techniques for estimating peak-flow frequency relations for North Dakota streams. In addition, a generalized skew coefficient analysis was completed for North Dakota to test the validity of using the generalized skew coefficient map in Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982, "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency." The analysis indicates that the generalized skew coefficient map in Bulletin 17B provides accurate estimates of generalized skew coefficient values for natural-flow streams in North Dakota. Peak-flow records through 1988 for 192 continuous- and partial-record streamflow gaging stations that had 10 or more years of record were used in a generalized least-squares regression analysis that relates peak flows for selected recurrence intervals to selected basin characteristics. Peak-flow equations were developed for recurrence intervals of 2, 10, 15, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years for three hydrologic regions in North Dakota. The peak-flow equations are applicable to natural-flow streams that have drainage areas of less than or equal to 1,000 square miles. The standard error of estimate for the three hydrologic regions ranges from 60 to 70 percent for the 100-year peak-flow equations. Methods are presented for transferring peak-flow data from gaging stations to ungaged sites on the same stream and for determining peak flows for ungaged sites on ungaged streams. Peak-flow relations, weighted estimates of peak flow, and selected basin characteristics are tabulated for the 192 gaging stations used in the generalized skew coefficient and regression analyses. Peak-flow relations also are provided for 63 additional gaging stations that were not used in the generalized skew coefficient and regression analyses. These 63 gaging stations generally represent streams that are significantly controlled by regulation and those that have drainage areas greater than 1,000 square miles.

North Dakota↗

USGS2009

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18 000 radiocarbon years ago

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000±500 and 18 000±1000 radiocarbon years before present ( 14 C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation. At 6000±500 14 C yr BP 255 samples are analysed from 127 sites. Differences between the modern and the 6000±500 14 C yr BP reconstruction are comparatively small; change relative to the modern reconstruction are mainly to biomes characteristic of drier climate in the north of the region with a slight more mesic shift in the south. Cool temperate rain forest remains dominant in western South America. In northwestern South America a number of sites record transitions from tropical seasonal forest to tropical dry forest and tropical rain forest to tropical seasonal forest. Sites in Central America show a change in biome assignment, but to more mesic vegetation, indicative of greater plant available moisture, e.g. on the Yucatán peninsula sites record warm evergreen forest, replacing tropical dry forest and warm mixed forest presently recorded. At 18 000±1000 14 C yr BP 61 samples from 34 sites record vegetation reflecting a generally cool and dry environment. Cool grass/shrubland is prevalent in southeast Brazil whereas Amazonian sites record tropical dry forest, warm temperate rain forest and tropical seasonal forest. Southernmost South America is dominated by cool grass/shrubland, a single site retains cool temperate rain forest indicating that forest was present at some locations at the LGM. Some sites in Central Mexico and lowland Colombia remain unchanged in the biome assignments of warm mixed forest and tropical dry forest respectively, although the affinities that these sites have to different biomes do change between 18 000±1000 14 C yr BP and present. The "unresponsive" nature of these sites results from their location and the impact of local edaphic influence.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2001

Type characters of non-native plant species in Great Lakes national parks (USA)

Non-native plant species are increasing in frequency and abundance in many natural areas in the United States. In Midwestern National Parks, as much as one third of the flora may be non-native. It was hypothesized that botanical characters of these species could be used to typify them and improve the methods of predicting invasions. Data on 19 characters of 341 non-native species from the four Great Lakes national lakeshores (Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, Pictured Rocks, and Sleeping Bear Dunes) and invasive non-native species for the State of Wisconsin were collected and studied. For many of the species, little data could be found, but for 139 of them, data were collected for at least 80% of the characters. The frequencies of classes of the characters were tabulated and ranked to typify the most common non-native species. This led to a description of a 'type species' just for these four National Parks. Three species of Cirsium, including Canada (C. arvense), marsh (C. palustre) and bull thistle (C. vulgare), matched the type species better than other species. C. vulgare occurs in more National Parks than the other thistles.

Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Nonsteady flow to a well of constant drawdown in an extensive aquifer

A mathematical theory is given for the discharge of a well of constant drawdown, discharging as by natural flow from an effectively infinite aquifer of uniform transmissibility and uniform compressibility. This theory is based on the solution by L. P. Smith of the analogous problem in heat conduction. The mathematical function involved in the solution, which cannot be integrated directly, is evaluated by numerical integration. A table of its values is given for a wide range of its argument. This function is compared with other,asymptotic solutions, and simple, useful approximations are given. Two graphical methods are outlined for determining the coefficients of storage and transmissibility from variations in the rate of discharge of wells flowing at constant drawdown. Data from the Grand Junction, Colo., artesian basin are treated by these methods. In the Grand Junction artesian basin there are about 25 flowing wells ranging in depth from 600 to 1600 ft, most of which obtain water from the Entrada sandstone. A few of the wells obtain water from a sandstone in the overlying Morrison formation and a few tap the underlying Wingate sandstone. The procedure of the tests is outlined, and the “ink-well” mercury gage used to measure the artesian pressures is described. Recovery tests were run on the same wells after the discharge tests. Values of transmissibility obtained from the recovery tests check those obtained by means of the discharge tests.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Using stable oxygen isotope dual-inlet isotope-ratio mass spectrometry to elucidate uranium transport and mixed 230Th/U calcite formation ages at the seminal Devils Hole, Nevada, natural laboratory

Rationale Vein calcite in Devils Hole has been precipitating continuously in oxygen-isotope equilibrium at a constant temperature for over 500 000 years, providing an unmatched δ 18 O paleoclimate time series. A substantial issue is that coeval calcite (based on matching δ 18 O values) has uranium-series ages differing by 12 000 years. Methods An unparalleled high-accuracy δ 18 O chronology series from continuously submerged calcite was used to correct the published uranium-series ages of non-continuously formed calcite in two cores, cyclically exposed by water-table decline during glacial–interglacial transitions. This method relies on the premise that the δ 18 O values of coevally precipitated calcite are identical, allowing matching calcite δ 18 O values to establish formation ages. Results Exposed calcite can have apparent ages that are 12 000 years too young due to unrecognized uranium mobility and resulting mixed ages identified in over 50 mixed uranium-series ages from previous studies. Secondary uranium in fluids, sourced from the formation or dissolution of porous carbonate deposits (folia) with high uranium-238 ( 238 U) concentrations, has migrated up to 10 mm into vein calcite. Conclusions The continuously submerged Devils Hole δ 18 O chronology is not explained by orbital forcing. Rather, this chronology represents a regional climate record in the southern Great Basin of sea-surface-temperature (SST) variations off California, variations that preceded the last and penultimate deglaciations by 5000 to approximately 10 000 years. Temporal discrepancies between the continuously submerged Devils Hole chronology and other regional δ 18 O records (e.g., the Leviathan chronology) can be explained by unrecognized cryptic, pernicious uranium mobility, leading to model estimations that may be thousands of years younger than actual ages. Consequently, paleo-moisture availability, water-table, and groundwater recharge models based on these mixed uranium-series ages are too young by as much as 12 000 years. The potential for post-formation uranium addition in subaerial cores and speleothems underscores the need for caution in uranium-series dating, highlighting δ 18 O time-series comparisons as a method for identifying mixed ages.

Nevada↗

USGS2022

Natural inactivation of MS2, poliovirus type 1 and Cryptosporidium parvum in an anaerobic and reduced aquifer

Aims The study of microbial inactivation rates in aquifer systems has most often been determined in aerobic and oxidized systems. This study examined the inactivation (i.e. loss of infectivity) of MS2, poliovirus type 1 (PV1) and Cryptosporidium parvum in an anaerobic and reduced groundwater system that has been identified as storage zones for aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facilities. Methods and Results Anaerobic and reduced (ORP < − 250 mV) groundwater from an artesian well was diverted to an above-ground, flow-through mesocosm that contained diffusion chambers filled with MS2, PV1 or Cryptosporidium parvum . The respective infectivity assays were performed on microorganisms recovered from the diffusion chambers during 30- to 58-day experiments. The net reduction in infectivity was 5.73 log 10 over 30 days for MS2, 5.00 log 10 over 58 days for PV1 and 4.07 log 10 over 37 days for C . parvum . The best fit inactivation model for PV1 was the log-linear model and the Weibull model for MS2 and C . parvum , with respective inactivation rates (95% confidence interval) of 0.19 (0.17–0.21) log 10 day −1 , 0.31 (0.19–0.89) log 10 day −1 and 0.20 (0.14–0.37) log 10 day −1 . Conclusions The groundwater geochemical conditions in this aquifer enhanced the inactivation of MS2, PV1, and C . parvum at rates approximately 2.0–5.3-fold, 1.2–17.0-fold, and 4.5–5.6-fold greater, respectively, than those from published studies that used diffusion chambers in aerobic-to-anoxic groundwater systems, with positive redox potentials. Significance and Impact of the Study Geochemical conditions like those in the aquifer zone in this study can naturally and significantly reduce concentrations of microbial indicators and pathogens of human health concern in injected surface water. Appropriate storage times for injected surface water could complement above-ground engineered processes for microorganism removal and inactivation (e.g. filtration, disinfection) by naturally increasing overall microorganism log-inactivation rates of ASR facilities.

Journal of Applied Microbiology↗

USGS2019

Evaluating consumptive and nonconsumptive predator effects on prey density using field times series data

Determining the degree to which predation affects prey abundance in natural communities constitutes a key goal of ecological research. Predators can affect prey through both consumptive effects (CEs) and nonconsumptive effects (NCEs), although the contributions of each mechanism to the density of prey populations remain largely hypothetical in most systems. Common statistical methods applied to time series data cannot elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hypothesized predator effects on prey density (e.g., differentiate CEs from NCEs), nor provide parameters for predictive models. State space models (SSMs) applied to time series data offer a way to meet these goals. Here, we employ SSMs to assess effects of an invasive predatory zooplankter, Bythotrephes longimanus, on an important prey species, Daphnia mendotae, in Lake Michigan. We fit mechanistic models in a SSM framework to seasonal time series (1994-2012) using a recently developed, maximum likelihood-based optimization method, iterated filtering, which can overcome challenges in ecological data (e.g. nonlinearities, measurement error, and irregular sampling intervals). Our results indicate that B. longimanus strongly influences D. mendotae dynamics, with mean annual peak densities of B. longimanus observed in Lake Michigan estimated to cause a 61% reduction in D. mendotae population growth rate and a 59% reduction in peak biomass density. Further, the observed B. longimanus effect is most consistent with an NCE via reduced birth rates. The SSM approach also provided estimates for key biological parameters (e.g., demographic rates) and the contribution of dynamic stochasticity and measurement error. Our study therefore provides evidence derived directly from survey data that the invasive zooplankter B. longimanus is affecting zooplankton demographics and offer parameter estimates needed to inform predictive models that explore the effect of B. longimanus under different scenarios such as climate change.

Ecology↗

USGS2019

Organic pellet decomposition induces mortality of Lake Trout embryos in Yellowstone Lake

Yellowstone Lake is the site of actions to suppress invasive Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush and restore native Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri and natural ecosystem function. Although gill netting is effective (Lake Trout λ ≤ 0.6 from 2012 through 2018), the effort costs more than US$2 million annually and only targets Lake Trout age 2 and older. To increase suppression efficiency, we developed an alternative method using organic (soy and wheat) pellets to increase mortality of Lake Trout embryos on spawning sites. Decomposition of pellets during two in situ experiments caused dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations to temporarily decline to lethal levels (<3.4 mg/L) within days of application. Embryo mortalities during the first exposure period (days 1–6 following application) were high at all treatment levels (1.75–28.0 kg/m 2 ) at the substrate surface and within interstices 20 cm below the surface, varying from 97 ± 1.8% (mean ± SE) to 100 ± 0.0%, but may have been enhanced by a handling effect (exposure to sunlight). Embryo mortalities during the second exposure period (days 11–22) were highest 20 cm below the surface, varying from 78 ± 9.7% to 100 ± 0.0%. Almost all (98 ± 3.1%) Lake Trout embryos died after exposure to DO < 3.4 mg/L for >200 h during the second period. Pellets caused lethal DO for several weeks below the substrate surface, despite largely dissolving and dissipating from the surface of treated areas by day 39. Broad-scale application of pellets at 1.75 kg/m 2 following the spawning period in autumn may reduce Lake Trout recruitment and enhance population suppression because the area of 14 verified spawning sites is only 11.4 ha (0.03% of lake surface area). Pellet application may be useful in other similar systems as part of an integrated pest management approach targeting multiple life stages of invasive freshwater fish.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Statistical detection of flow regime changes in horizontal hydraulically fractured Bakken oil wells

The application of horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells for producing oil from low permeability formations has changed the face of the North American oil industry. One feature of the production profile of many such wells is a transition from transient linear oil flow to boundary-dominated flow. The identification of the time of this transition is important for the calibration of models that forecast the well’s future production and the expected ultimate recovery. It is preferable that such models generally use data from the boundary-dominated flow regime for parameter calibration. Accurate well production forecasts are needed for operational decisions, long-term planning, commercial transactions, regulatory proceedings, and asset valuation. Petroleum engineers frequently make the call on the transition point based on subjective visual interpretations of log–log plots for individual wells. This is time-consuming and is generally not repeatable by other analysts. This note evaluates statistical approaches that can serve as alternatives to the subjective visual interpretations. Specifically, the predictive performance of production models calibrated with boundary-dominated data based on transition dates calculated with constrained nonlinear least squares and Bayesian regressions was very close to that obtained using the visual method, suggesting that statistical approaches may indeed be constructed to replace less objective visual approaches without loss of accuracy.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2025

Developing biocrust field cultivation techniques for soil restoration: An assessment of bacterial communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are a coherent, thin soil surface layer, engineered and inhabited by a diverse community of moss, lichen, cyanobacteria, and other microorganisms. Biocrusts provide critical functions in dryland systems and may be lost from the ecosystem through physical disturbance or other global change drivers. Once biocrusts are lost, natural recovery can occur very slowly. This has led to the development of biocrust rehabilitation strategies, including cultivation of biocrust propagules to inoculate degraded sites. As the need for biocrust restoration grows in scale and across different regions, inoculum cultivation and application methods are being asked to keep up. In this work, we evaluate cyanobacterial community composition and abundance in greenhouse and field cultivation systems, with and without growth substrate and shade treatments. We also consider cultivation of locally and non-locally sourced biocrust inocula at a single cultivation facility on the Colorado Plateau. We found that field cultivation is a viable option for biocrust cultivation. For almost all cyanobacteria, habitat amelioration was necessary for growth in the field. Despite differences in inocula composition following cultivation, restoration outcomes five months after inoculation were poor with no significant increases in cyanobacterial abundance, soil chlorophyll a , or soil exopolysaccharide content. Thus, more work is needed to boost the initial growth and survival of biocrust inocula, regardless of the method of cultivation (i.e., greenhouse or field). Future work focused on assessing opportunities for habitat amelioration during application to improve biocrust establishment during this critical restoration phase would be highly valuable.

Utah↗

USGS2011

Multimodel inference and adaptive management

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

Journal of Environmental Management↗