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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources

Application of a workflow to determine the feasibility of using simulated streamflow for estimation of streamflow frequency statistics

Streamflow records from hydrologic models are attractive for use in operational hydrology, such as a streamflow frequency analysis. The amount of bias inherent to simulated streamflow from hydrologic models is often unknown, but it is likely present in derivative products. Therefore, a workflow may help determine where streamflow frequency analysis is credibly feasible from simulated streamflow and allow for a systematic way to assess and correct for bias. The proposed workflow consists of hydrologically matching model output locations with streamflow-gauging station (stream gauge) locations, computing the desired statistic from the simulated and observed streamflow record, computing the differences between the simulated and observed statistic (i.e., the bias), and constructing generalized additive models (GAMs) from the differences to determine bias corrections. The US Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council and the US Environmental Protection Agency, is testing the proposed workflow on a low-streamflow frequency (LFF) analysis. Simulated streamflows for the LFF analysis were sourced from a machine-learning model that estimated daily streamflow at Level-12 hydrologic unit code (HUC12) pour points (outlets) in the southern and southeastern US for 1950–2010. The comparison data set consists of 497 stream gauges that are coincident with a HUC12 outlet. The simulated LFF statistics were being overestimated on average; thus, there are limits to using simulated streamflow for frequency analysis. The magnitude of the overprediction generally increases where no-flow conditions are common. Bias corrections determined from the GAMs decreased the magnitude of bias observed in the simulated LFF statistics on average, suggesting it is feasible to expand the operational use of simulated streamflows to frequency analyses with the proposed workflow. The proposed workflow could be advantageous to practitioners interested in leveraging existing and future simulated streamflow data sets with regional and or global coverage.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗

Topographic and hydrographic survey data for the São Francisco River near Torrinha, Bahia, Brazil, 2014

Navigable inland waterways, including lakes, rivers, and reservoirs, are important transportation routes for people and goods in Brazil. Natural and anthropogenic effects coupled with recent severe droughts have led to decreased inland waterway navigation. The Company for Development of the São Francisco and Parnaíba River Valleys (CODEVASF) has recognized the decrease in waterway navigation and is investing resources to help restore selected reaches of the São Francisco River for navigation. In 2011, CODEVASF signed an agreement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) seeking technical assistance and engineering expertise in waterway navigation and bank stabilization. The Torrinha-Itacoatiara study reach near Torrinha, Bahia was 1 of 12 conceptual waterway navigation improvement feasibility studies and was the focus of this study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the USACE and CODEVASF, collected topographic and hydrographic data from May 22 to June 12, 2014, to provide baseline data for supporting computational streamflow models. This report presents the surveying techniques and data-processing methods used to collect, process, and disseminate topographic and hydrographic data. All standard and non‑standard data-collection methods, techniques, and data process methods were documented. Additional discussion describes the quality-assurance and quality-control elements used in this study, along with the limitations for the Torrinha-Itacoatiara study reach data. The topographic and hydrographic geospatial data are published along with associated metadata.

Bahia↗

Program and abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop; July 19-20, 2010

In response to a request by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for computing tsunami propagations in the western Pacific, Eric Geist asked Willie Lee for assistance in providing parameters of earthquakes which may be future tsunami sources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Tsunami Source Working Group (TSWG) was initiated in August 2005. An ad hoc group of diverse expertise was formed, with Steve Kirby as the leader. The founding members are: Rick Blakely, Eric Geist, Steve Kirby, Willie Lee, George Plafker, Dave Scholl, Roland von Huene, and Ray Wells. Half of the founding members are USGS emeritus scientists. A report was quickly completed because of NOAA's urgent need to precalculate tsunami propagation paths for early warning purposes. It was clear to the group that much more work needed to be done to improve our knowledge about tsunami sources worldwide. The group therefore started an informal research program on tsunami sources and meets irregularly to share ideas, data, and results. Because our group activities are open to anyone, we have more participants now, including, for example, Harley Benz and George Choy (USGS, Golden, Colo.), Holly Ryan and Stephanie Ross (USGS, Menlo Park, Calif.), Hiroo Kanamori (Caltech), Emile Okal (Northwestern University), and Gerard Fryer and Barry Hirshorn (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Hawaii). To celebrate the fifth anniversary of the TSWG, a workshop is being held in the Auditorium of Building 3, USGS, Menlo Park, on July 19-20, 2010 (Willie Lee and Steve Kirby, Conveners). All talks (except one) will be video broadcast. The first tsunami source workshop was held in April 2006 with about 100 participants from many institutions. This second workshop (on a much smaller scale) will be devoted primarily to recent work by the USGS members. In addition, Hiroo Kanamori (Caltech) will present his recent work on the 1960 and 2010 Chile earthquakes, Barry Hirshorn and Stuart Weinstein (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center) will present their work on tsunami warning, and Rick Wilson (California Geological Survey) will display three posters on tsunami studies by him and his colleagues.

Open-File Report↗

Low-flow and flow duration of Tennessee streams

Low-flow frequency and duration data are presented to define variations of the low flow of Tennessee streams both in time and place. Analysis has been made of 204 continuous record stations, both regulated and unregulated and 651 partial-record stations operated either by the U.S. Geological Survey or Tennessee Valley Authority through the 1975 water year. Flow duration and frequency data have been tabulated for the continuous record sites using the digital computer and graphical methods. Frequency data only is presented for partial-record sites computed in most cases by comparing several discharge measurements at the site with concurrent daily mean flow for an appropriate gaging station. Flow duration data can be used to define a flow duration curve, with the slope at points on that curve used to establish the dependability of the stream to sustain a particular flow. Low-flow frequency data are presented to predict the probability that a specified flow or lesser flow will recur through time. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

User's guide to SAC, a computer program for computing discharge by slope-area method

This user's guide contains information on using the slope-area program, SAC. SAC can be used to compute peak flood discharges from measurements of high-water marks along a stream reach. The Slope-area method used by the program is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) procedure presented in Techniques of Water Resources Investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey, beok 3, chapter A2, "Measurement of Peak Discharge by the Slope-Area Method." The program uses input files that have formats compatible with those used by the water-surface profile program (WSPRO) described in the Federal Highways Administration publication FHWA-IP-89-027. The guide briefly describes the slope-area method documents the input requirements and the output produced, and demonstrates use of SAC.

Open-File Report↗

Exploratory analysis of environmental interactions in central California

As part of its global change research program, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has produced raster data that describe the land cover of the United States using a consistent format. The data consist of elevations, satellite measurements, computed vegetation indices, land cover classes, and ancillary political, topographic and hydrographic information. This open-file report uses some of these data to explore the environment of a (256-km)? region of central California. We present various visualizations of the data, multiscale correlations between topography and vegetation, a path analysis of more complex statistical interactions, and a map that portrays the influence of agriculture on the region's vegetation. An appendix contains C and Mathematica code used to generate the graphics and some of the analysis.

Open-File Report↗

Investigation of pier scour in coarse-bed streams in Montana, 2001 through 2007

A primary goal of ongoing field research of bridge scour is improvement of scour-prediction equations so that pier-scour depth is predicted accurately-an important element of hydraulic analysis and design of highway bridges that cross streams, rivers, and other waterways. Scour depth for piers in streambeds with a mixture of sand, gravel, cobbles, and boulders (coarse-bed streams, which are common in Montana) generally is less than the scour depth in finer-grained (sandy) streambeds under similar conditions. That difference is attributed to an armor layer of coarser material. Pier-scour data from the U.S. Geological Survey were used in this study to develop a bed-material correction factor, which was incorporated into the Federal Highway Administration's recommended equation for computing pier scour. This report describes results of a study of pier scour in coarse-bed streams at 59 bridge sites during 2001-2007 in the mountain and foothill regions of western Montana. Respective drainage areas ranged from about 3 square miles (mi 2 ) to almost 20,000 mi 2 . Data collected and analyzed for this study included 103 pier-scour measurements; the report further describes data collection, shows expansion of the national coarse pier-scour database, discusses use of the new data in evaluation of relative accuracy of various predictive equations, and demonstrates how differences in size and gradation between surface bed material and shallow-subsurface bed material might relate to pier scour. Nearly all measurements were made under clear-water conditions with no incoming sediment supply to the bridge opening. Half of the measurements showed approach velocities that equaled or surpassed the critical velocity for incipient motion of bed material, possibly indicating that measurements were made very near the threshold between clear-water and live-bed scour, where maximum scour was shown in laboratory studies. Data collected in this study were compared to selected pier-scour data from the nationwide Bridge Scour Data Management System (BSDMS), to show the effect of bed-material size and gradation on scour depth. Unsteady field flow conditions and armoring by coarser material reduced scour relative to the clear-water/sandy-bed laboratory results at steady flow. The new correction factor and the standard scour equation produced the most accurate estimates of scour depth in armored, coarse-bed conditions. Maximum relative scour occurred at similar velocity across variations in bed material and gradation. Pier scour decreased with increased variation in particle size and gradation.

Montana↗

Improvement in precipitation-runoff model simulations by recalibration with basin-specific data, and subsequent model applications, Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

Water-resource managers in Onondaga County, New York, are faced with the challenge of improving the water quality of Onondaga Lake, which has the distinction of being one of the most contaminated lakes in the United States. To assist in this endeavor, during 2003-07 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Onondaga Lake Partnership, developed a precipitation-runoff model of the 285-square-mile Onondaga Lake Basin with the computer program Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF). The model was intended to provide a tool whereby the processes responsible for the generation of loads of sediment and nutrients that are transported to Onondaga Lake could be better understood. This objective was only partly attained because data for calibration of the model were available from monitoring sites only at or near the mouths of the major tributaries to Onondaga Lake; no calibration data from headwater subbasins, where the loads originated, were available. To address this limitation and thereby decrease the uncertainty in the simulated results that were associated with headwater processes, the USGS conducted a 3-year (2005-08) basinwide study to assess the quality of surface water in the Onondaga Lake Basin. The study quantified the relative contributions of nonpoint sources associated with the major land uses and land covers in the basin and also monitored known sources and presumed sinks of sediment and nutrient loads, which previously had not been evaluated. The use of the newly acquired data to recalibrate the HSPF model resulted in improvements in the simulation of processes in the headwater subbasins, including suspended-sediment, orthophosphate, and phosphorus generation and transport. Simulation of streamflows in small subbasins was improved by adjusting model parameter values to match base flows, storm peaks, and storm recessions more precisely than had been done with the original model. Simulated recessional and low flows were either increased or decreased as appropriate for a given stream, and simulated peak flows generally were lowered in the revised model. The use of suspended-sediment concentrations rather than concentrations of the surrogate constituent, total suspended solids, resulted in increases in the simulated low-flow sediment concentrations and, in most cases, decreases in the simulated peak-flow sediment concentrations. Simulated orthophosphate concentrations in base flows generally increased but decreased for peak flows in selected headwater subbasins in the revised model. Compared with the original model, phosphorus concentrations simulated by the revised model were comparable in forested subbasins, generally decreased in developed and wetland-dominated subbasins, and increased in agricultural subbasins. A final revision to the model was made by the addition of the simulation of chloride (salt) concentrations in the Onondaga Creek Basin to help water-resource managers better understand the relative contributions of salt from multiple sources in this particular tributary. The calibrated revised model was used to (1) compute loading rates for the various land types that were simulated in the model, (2) conduct a watershed-management analysis that estimated the portion of the total load that was likely to be transported to Onondaga Lake from each of the modeled subbasins, (3) compute and assess chloride loads to Onondaga Lake from the Onondaga Creek Basin, and (4) simulate precolonization (forested) conditions in the basin to estimate the probable minimum phosphorus loads to the lake.

Onondaga, New York↗

Evaluation of the lakes and impoundments drought index for the Massachusetts Drought Management Plan

The condition of surface water storage in lakes and impoundments is used as an index of drought in the Massachusetts drought management plan. The U.S. Geological Survey visited 28 of these lakes and impoundments at 14 single and multiple waterbody systems to evaluate their appropriateness for characterizing drought. The data collection and computation methods at each system were then reviewed and checked for consistency. The types of historical monthly data available varied by system and included water surface elevation, depth of water below the spillway, volume, or reservoir capacity (percent full). For this analysis, water surface elevations and reservoir capacities were converted to volumes to assess the interannual variability in lake volumes. As a second level of assessment, analysis was also done on water surface elevation variability. Systems that did not have enough differentiation in monthly values between lake volume or water surface elevations to clearly demarcate drought levels were identified as unsuitable for use in the drought index for that month. This report discusses the limitations of using the reviewed lakes and impoundments as a drought index, as well as a list of best practices for data collection techniques to improve the confidence and reliability of the data collected.

Massachusetts↗

Statistical frequency analysis of flood records

The U.S. Geological Survey, like other Federal agencies, uses Hydrology Subcommittee Bulletin 17 for guidance in statistical frequency analysis of flood records. This paper describes the formal statistical and computational aspects of the Bulletin 17 methodology. The methodology includes provisions for dealing with high and low out-liers, historic peaks, and other anomalous flood data. If these options are inadequate, alternative procedures may be used if properly documented.

Conference Paper↗

Flood-inundation maps for the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01170100 Green River near Colrain to the confluence with the Deerfield River

The U.S. Geological Survey developed flood elevations in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency for a 14.3-mile reach of the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, to assist landowners and emergency management workers to prepare for and recover from floods. The river reach extends from the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage downstream to the confluence with the Deerfield River. A series of seven digital flood inundation maps were developed for the upper 4.4 miles of the river reach downstream from the stream. Flood discharges corresponding to the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed for the reach from updated flood-frequency analyses. These peak flows and the flood flows associated with the stages of 10.2, 12.4, and 14.4 feet (ft) at the Green River streamgage were routed through a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model to obtain the corresponding peak water-surface elevations and to place the Tropical Storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011 (stage 13.97 ft), into historical context. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current (2015) stage-discharge relation at the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage and from documented high-water marks from the Tropical Storm Irene flood, which had a flow higher than a 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood discharge. The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages referenced to the streamgage and ranging from the 50-percent annual exceedance probability (bankfull flow) at 7.6 ft (439.8 ft above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]) to 14.4 ft (446.7 ft NAVD 88), which exceeds the maximum recorded water level of 13.97 ft (Tropical Storm Irene) at the streamgage. The mapped stages of 7.6 to 14.4 ft were selected to match the stages for bankfull; the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities; incremental stages of 10.2 and 12.4 ft; and the maximum stage of the stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.5-ft vertical accuracy to create a set of flood-inundation maps. The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near real-time stage from U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

Massachusetts↗

Geologic interpretation of aeromagnetic map of the Seward and Blying Sound quadrangles, Alaska

An aeromagnetic survey of the Seward and northern part of the Blying Sound quadrangles was flown by Geometrics, Inc., during 1975-77 to provide magnetic data to aid in an appraisal of the mineral resources. Background details of the regional geology and major structures are described in a companion report by Tysdal and Case (1979), and interpretation of the gravity data are described in a report by Case and others (1979). Preliminary reports of a paleomagnetic investigation have been reported by Hillhouse and Gromme (1977), and a more complete analysis of the results is in preparation. The aeromagnetic survey was flown at a nominal height of 300 m above the surface and flight lines were spaced about 1.7 km apart. Total magnetic field was measured by a proton-precession magnetometer. The International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF), updated to 1976, was removed, and the residual values were computer-contoured to produce the aeromagnetic map (sheet 1). Detailed aeromagnetic maps at scale 1:63,360 and a map at scale 1:250,000 have been released as Open File Reports 78-1080 through 1083 (U.S. Geological Survey, 1978). Magnetic anomalies in the Seward-Blying Sound region are somewhat less complex than in other parts of south-central Alaska, primarily because of the huge volume of relatively nonmagnetic flysch that constitutes the Valdez and Orca Groups. Several rather isolated groups of mafic-ultramafic rocks are significantly more magnetic than the flysch assemblages, and cause distinctive patterns of magnetic anomalies. A few of the granitic plutons are magnetic, but most appear to have little or no magnetic expression.

Alaska↗

A spatially referenced regression model (SPARROW) for suspended sediment in streams of the Conterminous U.S.

Suspended sediment has long been recognized as an important contaminant affecting water resources. Besides its direct role in determining water clarity, bridge scour and reservoir storage, sediment serves as a vehicle for the transport of many binding contaminants, including nutrients, trace metals, semi-volatile organic compounds, a nd numerous pesticides (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000a). Recent efforts to addr ess water-quality concerns through the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process have iden tified sediment as the single most prevalent cause of impairment in the Nation’s streams a nd rivers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000b). Moreover, sediment has been identified as a medium for the tran sport and sequestration of organic carbon, playing a potentia lly important role in understa nding sources and sinks in the global carbon budget (Stallard, 1998). A comprehensive understanding of sediment fate a nd transport is considered essential to the design and implementation of effective plans for sediment management (Osterkamp and others, 1998, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1990). An exte nsive literature addr essing the problem of quantifying sediment transport has produced a nu mber of methods for estimating its flux (see Cohn, 1995, and Robertson and Roerish, 1999, for us eful surveys). The accuracy of these methods is compromised by uncertainty in the concentration measurements and by the highly episodic nature of sediment movement, particul arly when the methods are applied to smaller basins. However, for annual or decadal flux es timates, the methods are generally reliable if calibrated with extended periods of data (Robertson and Roerish, 1999). A substantial literature also supports the Universal Soil Loss Equation (U SLE) (Soil Conservation Service, 1983), an engineering method for estimating sheet and rill erosion, although the empirical credentials of the USLE have recently been questioned (Tri mble and Crosson, 2000). Conversely, relatively little direct evidence is available concerning the fate of sediment. The common practice of quantifying sediment fate with a sediment deliv ery ratio, estimated from a simple empirical relation with upstream basin area, does not artic ulate the relative importance of individual storage sites within a basin (Wolman, 1977). Rates of sediment deposition in reservoirs and flood plains can be determined from empirical measurement s , but only a limited number of sites have been monitored, and net rates of deposition or loss from other potential sinks and sources is largely unknown (Stallard, 1998). In particular, little is known about how much sediment loss from fields ultimately makes its way to stream channels, and how much sediment is subsequently stored in or lost from th e streambed (Meade and Parker, 1985, Trimble and Crosson, 2000). This paper reports on recent progress made to a ddress empirically the question of sediment fate and transport on a national scale. The model pres ented here is based on the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attr ibutes (SPARROW) methodology, fi rst used to estimate the distribution of nutrients in str eams and rivers of the United Stat es, and subsequently shown to describe land and stream processes affecting the delivery of nutrients (Smith and others, 1997, Alexander and others, 2000, Preston and Brakeb ill, 1999). The model makes use of numerous spatial datasets, available at the national level, to explain long-term sediment water-quality conditions in major streams and rivers throughou t the United States. Sediment sources are identified using sediment erosion rates from the National Resources I nventory (NRI) (Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2000) and apportioned over the landscape according to 30- meter resolution land-use information from th e National Land Cover Data set (NLCD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000a). More than 76,000 reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams (NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engin eers, 1996) are identified as pot ential sediment sinks. Other, non-anthropogenic sources and sinks are identified using soil in formation from the State Soil Survey Geographic (STATSGO) data base (Schwarz and Alexander, 1995) and spatial coverages representing surficial rock t ype and vegetative cover. The SPA RROW model empirically relates these diverse spatial datasets to estimates of long-term, mean annual sediment flux computed from concentration and flow measurements co llected over the period 1985 -95 from more than 400 monitoring stations maintained by the Na tional Stream Quality Accounting Network (Alexander and others, 1998), the National Wa ter Quality Assessment Program, and U.S. Geological Survey District offices (Turcios and Gray, in press). Th e calibrated model is used to estimate sediment flux for over 60,000 stream segments included in the River Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network (Alexander and others, 1999). SPARROW uses statis tical methods to calibrate a simple, structural model of riverine water quality, one that imposes mass ba lance in accounting for changes in contaminant flux. As applied here, the mass-balance approach facilitates the interpretation of model results in terms of physical processes affecting sediment transport, and makes possible the estimation of various rates of sediment generation and loss associated with stream channels and features of the landscape. The statistical approach provides a basi s for assessing the error of these inferred rates and of the error in extrapolated estimates of sediment flux made for streams in the RF1 network. An important implication of the holistic modeling approach adopted in this analysis is that estimates of sediment production and loss ar e based on, and therefore consistent with, measurements of in-stream flux. Other ancillary information, such as direct measurements of long-term sediment storage and release from rese rvoirs (Steffen, 1996), is incorporated into the analysis by specifying additional equations expl aining these ancillary variables. The imposition of cross-equation constraints affords this info rmation a statistically consistent weight in explaining in-stream sediment flux. Thus, the me thodology described here represents a general framework for synthesizing a wide spectrum of available information relevant to the understanding of sediment fate and transport.

Conterminous United States↗

Precise determination of δ 88 Sr in rocks, minerals, and waters by double-spike TIMS: A powerful tool in the study of chemical, geologic, hydrologic and biologic processes

We present strontium isotopic ( 88 Sr/ 86 Sr and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) results obtained by 87 Sr– 84 Sr double spike thermal ionization mass-spectrometry (DS-TIMS) for several standards as well as natural water samples and mineral samples of abiogenic and biogenic origin. The detailed data reduction algorithm and a user-friendly Sr-specific stand-alone computer program used for the spike calibration and the data reduction are also presented. Accuracy and precision of our δ 88 Sr measurements, calculated as permil (‰) deviations from the NIST SRM-987 standard, were evaluated by analyzing the NASS-6 seawater standard, which yielded δ 88 Sr = 0.378 ± 0.009‰. The first DS-TIMS data for the NIST SRM-607 potassium feldspar standard and for several US Geological Survey carbonate, phosphate, and silicate standards (EN-1, MAPS-4, MAPS-5, G-3, BCR-2, and BHVO-2) are also reported. Data obtained during this work for Sr-bearing solids and natural waters show a range of δ 88 Sr values of about 2.4‰, the widest observed so far in terrestrial materials. This range is easily resolvable analytically because the demonstrated external error (±SD, standard deviation) for measured δ 88 Sr values is typically ≤0.02‰. It is shown that the “true” 87 Sr/ 86 Sr value obtained by the DS-TIMS or any other external normalization method combines radiogenic and mass-dependent mass-fractionation effects, which cannot be separated. Therefore, the “true” 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and the δ 87 Sr parameter derived from it are not useful isotope tracers. Data presented in this paper for a wide range of naturally occurring sample types demonstrate the potential of the δ 88 Sr isotope tracer in combination with the traditional radiogenic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr tracer for studying a variety of biological, hydrological, and geological processes.

Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry↗

Estimation and comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood flows at Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance study flow locations across Pennsylvania

Flood-flow estimates were computed at over 5,000 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood insurance study (FIS) flow locations across Pennsylvania for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood event (1-percent AEP). Depending on a point of interest’s proximity to a streamgage, weighting techniques may be applied to obtain flood-flow estimates for ungaged flow locations using observed peak-flow data from a nearby streamgage. Following the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) published guidance, stream segments were identified where the drainage-area ratio method could be leveraged. Using updated regional regression equations and recently published flood-flow estimates at USGS streamgage locations following USGS Bulletin 17C guidelines, weighted and transferred flood flows were computed, where appropriate. For locations not applicable for the drainage-area ratio method, regression equations were used to compute flood-flow estimates. These flood-flow estimates were then compared to FEMA FIS 1-percent AEP flood-flow estimates. Percentage-difference values were computed for 3,599 FIS flow locations determined to be suitable for analysis, finding that USGS-derived flood-flow estimates were consistently lower than FEMA FIS flood-flow estimates with a statewide median percentage difference of −10.1 percent. The dataset was normally distributed with a standard deviation of 45.7 percent. Allegheny County was found to have 74 FIS flow locations with percentage-difference values greater than or equal to 67 percent or less than or equal to −67 percent. The flood-flow region in which Allegheny County is contained, Region 2, had a median percentage-difference value of −39 percent. Although removed from the final analysis, flow locations with drainage-area values above the recommended threshold for regression-based estimation (about 1,000 square miles [mi 2 ]) were observed to have consistently higher percentage-difference values; a reminder of the limitations of use for regression-based flood-flow estimates. This report, the comparisons within, and a companion data release are intended to serve as tools to FEMA in assisting with the ongoing assessment of FIS flow locations across Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania↗

National assessment of shoreline change—Summary statistics for updated vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the north coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape

Long-term rates of shoreline change for the north coast of Alaska, from the U.S.-Canadian border to the Icy Cape region of northern Alaska, have been updated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Short-term shoreline change rates are reported for the first time. Additional shoreline position data were used to compute rates where the previous rate-of-change assessment only included two shoreline positions at a given location. The calculation of uncertainty associated with the long-term average rates has also been updated to match refined methods used in other study regions of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. The average rates of this report have a reduced amount of uncertainty compared to those presented in the first assessment for this region.

Alaska↗

A homogeneous stochastic model for earthquake occurrences

The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic model for earthquake occurrences with temporal and spatial memory. Stochastic processes are used to characterize both the spatial and temporal dependencies of seismic occurrences along a fault. Currently, only homogeneous space and time transitions are considered. The resulting process however is evolutionary and depends on the specific sequence of events over a period of time. The model provides estimates on the cumulative activity of a fault over a future time period. In addition, probabilities of occurrences of individual events along a geologic fault at some specified future time are obtained when a descritized time scale is used. The information from these evaluations is particularly useful in engineering seismic hazard computations and for social and engineering seismic risk assessments.

Open-File Report↗

Compilation of ground water quality data in Pennsylvania

The U.S. Geological Survey's water quality file of 4,671 wells and springs in Pennsylvania provided ground-water-quality data for Pennsylvania. The data were assembled into computer-readable format and sorted into 15 major aquifer groups based on principal lithology, physiographic province, and age. Nineteen variables in each group were summarized by the Statistical Analysis Systems UNIVARIATE procedures to produce descriptive statistics including extreme values and quartiles. The bulk of the water-quality data are in the important aquifers in the unconsolidated Coastal Plain sediments, the Triassic sedimentary rocks, the igneous and metamorphic rocks, and the carbonate rocks. On the other hand, water-quality data for aquifer groups in the Appalachian Plateau and Valley and Ridge Province are sparse. Statewide, only six wells provide sufficient long-term data for trend analyses. Ground-water quality in Pennsylvania is highly diverse. High concentrations of dissolved solids, iron, manganese, sulfate, and nitrate are prevalent forms of natural and manmade contamination. The unconsolidated Coastal Plain aquifers have been most severely degraded. On the other hand, some of the best quality water is found in the quartzite, sandstone, and conglomerate rock units in the Cambrian and Precambrian rocks.

Open-File Report↗