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A homogeneous stochastic model for earthquake occurrences

Anne S. Kiremidjian·Thalia Anagnos
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic model for earthquake occurrences with temporal and spatial memory. Stochastic processes are used to characterize both the spatial and temporal dependencies of seismic occurrences along a fault. Currently, only homogeneous space and time transitions are considered. The resulting process however is evolutionary and depends on the specific sequence of events over a period of time. The model provides estimates on the cumulative activity of a fault over a future time period. In addition, probabilities of occurrences of individual events along a geologic fault at some specified future time are obtained when a descritized time scale is used. The information from these evaluations is particularly useful in engineering seismic hazard computations and for social and engineering seismic risk assessments.

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Anne S. Kiremidjian, Thalia Anagnos. 1980. A homogeneous stochastic model for earthquake occurrences. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr801153

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