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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

Comparison of data handling techniques for modeling bat acoustic activity

With the proliferation of acoustic sampling to investigate bat distribution and ecology, researchers have implemented a myriad of statistical modeling approaches to interpret findings. Bats are taxa of high conservation concern; therefore, ensuring the accuracy of species-level habitat association models is critical for informing management. We sought to determine prediction differences among statistical approaches to modeling counts of acoustic detections, using generalized linear mixed models with 8 acoustic data-handling techniques. We applied each approach or combination of approaches to a rare species, the northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ), and a common species, the eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ), from summer survey results on a landscape in south-central Pennsylvania, USA, 2024. We evaluated the accuracy of habitat association models of bat acoustic activity at the species level using cross-validation and compared resulting predictions of models using spatial correlations. We determined that filtering data by automated identification software (Kaleidoscope Pro), the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) P -value thresholds reduced relative mean absolute error (rMAE) in cross-validation of northern long-eared bat models. Using the MLE-retained data produced the most accurate predictions over using raw data or the overly conservative match ratio data. However, for the eastern red bat, the results from the most conservative approach of only retaining data with at least a 90% match ratio from software development training sets had the lowest rMAE. We have provided evidence that the current standard of filtering data by nightly MLE can result in more accurate and informative habitat-use acoustic activity models for rare bat species.

Pennsylvania↗

Abundance, trends, and challenges facing mountain goats throughout their North American distribution

Recent declines among some mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus ) populations have heightened concern about their current status and ability to cope with future challenges. We conducted a range-wide assessment of the status of mountain goats across their distribution to understand the extent and patterns of change in recent years. We queried states, provinces, National Parks, and Indigenous governments with territories and reserves containing local wild populations, requesting updates on estimated mountain goat abundance and trends over time, as well as qualitative assessments of conservation challenges. We supplemented the questionnaires with existing literature (both published and available from agency websites). We subjected a subset of mountain goat population time−series to exploratory meta-analyses, examining covariates associated with rates of change. Respondents identified 203 units within which estimates were documented, a majority of which were raw counts from aircraft; fewer jurisdictions used site-specific sightability models, mark-recapture statistics, or other approaches to account for imperfect detection. Jurisdictions updated unit-specific estimates on average every 4.0 years (SD = 2.9, Min–Max = 1–24 years). Among 152 qualitative estimates of trends of native populations, 3% were reported as having increased substantially, 10% as having increased slightly, 24% as having declined slightly, and 14% as having declined substantially (49% reported either no detectable trend or insufficient data to identify a trend). Among 133 estimates of trends of introduced or pioneering populations, 5% increased substantially, 24% increased slightly, 20% declined slightly, and 11% declined substantially (40% reported no detectable trend). Jurisdiction-wide abundance estimates were lower than those previously published in all jurisdictions except Colorado and Oregon, and in Alaska, where trends were unclear. Intrinsic rates of increase ( r ) were positively associated with the population being introduced or pioneering, negatively associated with heavy snow and, to a lesser extent, with drought, but were not associated with abundance or presence of hunter harvest. Existing evidence suggested that many local populations, especially native populations, have declined, but understanding of specific causes has been constrained by limited monitoring capacity. Greater spatiotemporal monitoring effort and detailed studies would inform appropriate strategies to address threats and future challenges to mountain goats.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Evaluating groundwater quality influences from oil field operations and other anthropogenic activities in an urban setting, Santa Fe Springs, California

Groundwater quality is often affected by anthropogenic activities in urban settings. This study examines groundwater quality in and around the Santa Fe Springs Oil Field in Los Angeles County, California, where oil and gas production commonly intersects with high density industrial, commercial and residential land uses. Utilizing a combination of new and historical data, we evaluated potential pathways that would allow for oil field formation fluids to migrate into groundwater and whether mixing may have occurred based on the distribution of groundwater and oil field formation fluid tracers in samples. Samples were analyzed for a wide array of constituents including volatile organic compounds, light hydrocarbons, major ions, and various isotopic compositions. Despite evidence of oil field infrastructure providing potential pathways of migration via uncemented annular spaces, casing breaches and historical disposal of oil field formation water in surface ponds, the distribution and occurrence of stable isotopes of water, chloride, boron, and total dissolved solids do not indicate mixing of oil field formation water and groundwater. However, methane isotopic signatures and the presence of heavier alkanes suggest gas from oil-bearing formations have migrated from depth via oil field well infrastructure. Volatile organic compound detections were mainly from manufactured compounds unrelated to oil and gas production, with a relatively limited number of petroleum hydrocarbons also detected. Volatile organic compounds were generally found in wells tapping shallow, modern aged groundwater, indicating anthropogenic activities occurring at or near land surface as the source. Study results suggest that while oil field infrastructure provides migration pathways for oil field formation fluids to be introduced into groundwater, urban land uses not related to oil and gas production are the primary drivers of groundwater quality degradation.

California↗

Significant coastal dune loss challenges California's climate resilience and biodiversity goals

Coastal sand dunes support unique biodiversity and buffer beaches and communities against storm impacts. However, these sensitive and dynamic ecosystems are increasingly threatened by erosion, sea-level rise (SLR), and encroaching coastal development. Restoration projects designed to re-establish the eco-geomorphic functions of degraded dunes and associated ecosystem services present a viable pathway to relieve these stressors. Yet, even for populated coasts like California, insufficient information on the location of dunes and patterns of change over time constrain regional efforts to identify suitable restoration/conservation sites, and forecast future impacts on vulnerable beach–dune systems. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of coastal dune extent and loss, spanning 165 years and 9.5° of latitude across California. Areas and drivers of change were quantified by comparing historical and current dune extents generated using historical surveys, high-resolution aerial imagery, and LiDAR, combined with a machine-learning tool. Coastal dunes currently extend along 352 km (22%) of California's 1,625 km coastline, covering almost 300 km 2 . This represents a 60% (442 km 2 ) decrease in area since the mid-1800s with the loss, degradation, and fragmentation of many dune ecosystems attributed to urban development, altered land-uses, and erosion. Strong regional patterns of dune loss were evident, reflecting population demographics and land uses. Densely populated areas of southern California experienced the greatest dune losses (95%, 108 km 2 ), although substantial reductions were also found in central California (60%, 331 km 2 ). Our results highlight the magnitude of coastal change in California over time and can inform future conservation, restoration, and resilience-planning efforts and priorities.

California↗

Individual encounter data of six African carnivore species optimized for multi-species density estimation

The ability to estimate abundances of multiple wildlife species within an area is valuable for both conservation and ecological inquiry. Spatially explicit capture–recapture (SCR) methods are commonly used to obtain reliable population size estimates, particularly for low-density and individually identifiable carnivore species. However, estimating abundance within multi-species communities poses a methodological challenge as survey designs and analytical tools are primarily tailored for single target species. Here, we present a dataset of spatially referenced individual encounter histories of six carnivore species with varying space requirements (lion, Panthera leo ; leopard, Panthera pardus ; spotted hyena, Crocuta crocuta ; cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus ; serval, Leptailurus serval ; large-spotted genet, Genetta tigrina ). These data were collected in a South African game reserve using a camera trap array optimized for multi-species density estimation using SCR methods. This dataset will be a valuable resource for studying spatial processes among potentially interacting carnivores without the common pitfalls that come with by-catch data of non-target species, and will provide a much-needed case study for the further development of multi-species statistical method development.

Munywana Conservancy↗

Bridging remote sensing advances and management needs for small Prairie Pothole waterbodies using a multiscale accuracy assessment

Remote sensing of surface water provides a powerful tool to inform the management of waterfowl habitat, but there is little information available to directly assess the relative accuracy of different remote sensing datasets. Our objective was to understand how the characteristics of remotely sensed inundation datasets inform dataset accuracy, the reliable detection of small waterbodies, the distribution of surface water, observation frequency and completeness of data: all attributes relevant to the management of waterfowl habitat. We compared surface water composites from 10 remotely sensed surface water datasets from 2016 to 2021 to in-situ surface water data for three complexes of small waterbodies in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region and evaluated their accuracy at the pixel, waterbody and local landscape scales. While all products had high per-pixel balanced accuracies (>0.75), we found distinct differences in waterbody area and landscape distribution estimates among datasets. Sentinel-1-based datasets provided a more complete set of observations over time and were more sensitive in detecting water presence in smaller waterbodies but were less accurate at identifying waterbody area than other datasets evaluated. Landsat datasets, alternatively, produced simpler landscape distributions that largely omitted the smallest waterbodies. While the datasets that either fused Sentinel-1 and −2 data collections or utilized local training data had the highest performances (e.g. balanced accuracy = 0.92), all datasets had use-case scenarios for which they may be informative. Our comparisons revealed differences that were not evident in traditional pixel-scale accuracy assessment, such as an 18-fold difference in the number of inundated waterbodies identified across remote sensing datasets. These findings provide novel insights for waterfowl conservation management on howremote sensing datasets may differ in their ability to monitor annual spring surface water presence within landscapes dominated by small waterbodies, such as the Prairie Pothole Region.

Minnesota, North Dakota↗

A practical framework for identifying genetic subpopulations and ESUs: Insights for IUCN assessments and broader management

Species conservation assessments evaluate extinction risk, and recovery potential, advancing species persistence through guiding resource prioritization and planning. Assessment frameworks, including the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and Green Status of Species, typically focus on species as a whole. Importantly, they do not routinely account for genetically distinct units or do not have standardized methods of unit delineation. This limits the representation of genetically distinct components, including adaptive genetic diversity that underpins long-term resilience and recovery. Incorporating standardized within-species units like subpopulations and Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) into species assessments could help address this oversight. However, identifying and delineating such units remain challenging, particularly when molecular data are limited. Here, we propose a flexible framework that integrates molecular and non-molecular evidence to identify both subpopulations and ESUs across taxa, providing a practical tool to incorporate within-species diversity into conservation assessments.

BioScience↗

The US XPD-24–200—An isokinetic suspended-sediment and water-quality collapsible-bag sampler with point- or depth-integrating sampling capabilities

Accurate collection of fluvial suspended‑sediment and water‑quality samples is essential for understanding transport processes, evaluating river health, quantifying loads, and supporting regulatory and management decisions. Since 1939, the Federal Interagency Sedimentation Project (FISP) has led the development and standardization of sediment‑sampling equipment and methods across Federal agencies. Although substantial advancements have been made, the most recent point‑integrating sampler developed in 2006 has notable limitations, including insufficient sample volume for low‑concentration analyses and a mechanically complex pressure‑equalization system required for a rigid-bottle sample container. To address these limitations, FISP collaborated with Carnet Technology to design, fabricate, and test a new collapsible‑bag sampler capable of collecting larger sample volumes and operating as either a point‑integrating or depth‑integrating sampler. The resulting sampler, the US XPD‑24‑200, was evaluated through controlled tow‑tank tests and field testing in a lake environment. Results indicate that the US XPD‑24‑200 can collect a 5.5-fold increase in maximum sample volume than a pre-existing point sampler developed in 2006. The US XPD‑24‑200 performs isokinetically within the expected intake efficiency (IE) range under most conditions. Approximately 73 percent of IEs fell within the target range of 0.9–1.1. A mild bias was observed with IE values outside this range that were predominantly lower than 0.9 and occurred most frequently at the lower test velocities, whereas only 2 percent of IEs exceeded 1.1, primarily at the highest velocities tested. Tow‑tank tests produced tightly clustered IE values with low variability, demonstrating stable performance under controlled conditions. Lake towing tests exhibited more variability, reflecting natural environmental influences such as turbulence, temperature gradients, and unsteady inflow. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the US XPD‑24‑200 provides reliable IEs comparable to existing samplers while offering increased sample volume, reduced mechanical complexity, and enhanced operational flexibility.

Open-File Report↗

Dietary composition and diversity in an endemic island bat, the Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus semotus)

Due to the importance of sufficient diets, conservation practices for endangered bats often involve protection and restoration of foraging resources. For insectivorous (or arthropodivorous) bats, detailed knowledge of prey consumption can inform effective management. In this study, we used metabarcoding techniques to investigate the diet of Lasiurus semotus , a primarily insectivorous, solitary foliage-roosting endangered bat endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. To determine diet composition and how it relates to sex, reproductive condition, and habitat, we analyzed 141 guano samples collected from across the Hawaiian archipelago between 2010–2021. We detected 424 arthropod prey items, with Lepidoptera — the most common order (found in 100% of all samples), followed by Blattodea (85%), Coleoptera (42%), Orthoptera (47%), Diptera (33%), and Hemiptera (25%). Coleoptera were more frequent in guano collected from females. Prey richness and evenness at the family-level were similar across sex, reproductive condition, elevation, and land cover type. High variability among samples, and the dominance of Lepidoptera and Kalotermitidae (Blattodea), indicates that local prey abundance may influence L. semotus diet more strongly than prey richness and evenness. Lasiurus semotus consumed both native and non-native arthropods, including several invasive agricultural pests. Our study demonstrates that hoary bats in the Hawaiian Islands consume a wide variety of prey types, likely sought over an extensive range of habitats.

Hawaii↗

Comparative genomics reveals potential mechanisms of invasion in Phragmites australis (common reed)

Biological invasions are transforming ecosystems worldwide, yet the genomic bases enabling certain species to dominate new environments remain poorly understood. Phragmites australis , a widespread wetland grass with invasive and native subspecies co-occurring in North America, provides a powerful system to investigate genomic mechanisms of invasiveness. We generated independent chromosome-scale genome assemblies for invasive P. australis ssp. australis and co-occurring native ssp. americanus and used comparative genomic and transcriptomic analyses to identify lineage-specific innovations associated with invasive success. The invasive subspecies exhibits genomic novelties through functionally-biased single-copy orthologs, intronless genes, and subgenome expression asymmetry, along with a stress-ready basal transcriptome relative to the native subspecies. Following the removal of aboveground shoots (“cutback”), which measures the ability to recover from damage, the invasive subspecies undergoes stronger transcriptional reprogramming, increased shoot production, and higher biomass accumulation compared to the native. It also displays expansion of gene families and coordinately expressed gene modules that support resource mobilization, growth responses to light, and stress tolerance. Beyond Phragmites , comparative analyses across multiple grass genomes, including eight invasive species with related non-invasive species, revealed repeated expansion of gene families associated with abiotic stress tolerance and developmental regulation, suggesting convergent adaptive strategies in the grass family for invasive success. Together, these results demonstrate genomic architecture linked to invasion success and highlight potential targets for managing invasive grasses.

BioRxiv↗

Revealing tidal pumping processes of alternating groundwater discharge and tidal intrusion using vertical temperature analysis along an estuarine interface

Alternating patterns of groundwater discharge and tidal intrusion along shorelines have remained difficult to characterize and quantify efficiently using empirical data. Groundwater flowpaths along estuarine coastal interfaces have profound effects on dynamic redox conditions, contaminant transport and ecology in estuarine environments. In this study, we quantify tidally influenced groundwater discharge from the McAllister Point Landfill in Newport, Rhode Island, USA using temperature with depth measurements to model bidirectional hydrological fluxes in a recursive estimation state-space model. Zones of groundwater discharge at low tide were first located using thermal infrared and electromagnetic conductivity surveys based on strong contrasts between cooler, more electrically resistive terrestrial groundwater compared to the warmer, more electrically conductive tidal waters that occur in the summer. An array of 25 vertical temperature profilers was subsequently deployed along the southern shoreline of the site, directly adjacent to a landfill. Water samples were collected from discharge zones using a PushPoint sampler with depth, and from surface water away from these zones. Temperature with depth time-series data were used to model one-dimensional alternating groundwater discharge and tidal intrusion dynamics. A nonlinear cross-spectral inversion of the bed temperature data was employed to estimate bulk sediment thermal properties at the same temporal scale as the flux models. One-dimensional hydrological flux models were spatially upscaled via interpolation of fluxes over the southern shoreline area to estimate total volumetric flux. Models of hydrological flux show alternating periods of groundwater discharge at low tide and tidal intrusion into coastal sediments during high tide at a sub-daily scale. Additionally, geochemical analysis of pore waters revealed contrasts in heavy metal concentrations between sampling periods and depth, indicating potential landfill leachate transport. This study represents the use of temperature with depth data to model sub-daily changes in vertical hydrological flux through coastal sediments using a recursive estimation state-space model.

Rhode Island↗

Morphodynamic controls on the performance of dune-based coastal flood mitigation under sea-level rise

Dune-based adaptation is increasingly used as a nature-based solution for coastal flood mitigation, yet many assessments rely on hydrodynamic-only approaches that treat beach and dune morphology as static, neglecting storm-driven erosion that can degrade dune performance during extreme events. This study develops a process-based modeling framework coupling extreme value analysis of regional wave climate with XBeach surfbeat simulations to evaluate coastal flooding, erosion, and dune performance across three time horizons (2025, 2055, 2085) and four storm return periods (5, 20, 50, and 100 years) at two contrasting sites in Santa Cruz County, California. At Santa Cruz Beach, flood extent increases at an accelerating rate with sea-level rise (SLR) for a given return period, while higher return period storms exhibit diminishing incremental increases under fixed SLR conditions. Storm-scale morphodynamic feedbacks reduce predicted flood extent by up to 32.4% through profile adjustment and nearshore bar formation. Dune effectiveness is strongly regime-dependent, reducing flooding by up to 60% under collision-regime conditions but declining rapidly as the system transitions toward overwash and inundation under stronger storms and late-century SLR. Comparison of static and erodible dune representations shows that flood estimates are not consistently conservative, with differences reaching up to 54.3% depending on storm intensity and time horizon. At Capitola Beach, limited accommodation space and water-level-dominated dynamics collectively constrain morphodynamic adjustment, render the site near its inundation capacity under present-day conditions, and result in near-complete dune collapse and limited flood mitigation across all scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of site-specific regime evaluation, process-based morphodynamic modeling, and adaptive management when assessing dune-based adaptation under rising sea levels.

California↗

Evidence for a biological origin of uranium-rich carbon masses within the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of Pakistan

Thucholites are unique organic structures found in igneous and sedimentary rocks composed of a U-C-rich interior enclosed by an organic outer shell. Their formation and occurrence have perplexed scientists for over 100 years. Typically, thucholites are sparse in sedimentary rocks but where found in abundance, they may be the result of rapid paleoecological disruptions, e.g., volcanic ashfall. Here, we evaluated thucholites from the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of the Indus Basin in Pakistan using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) and nanoscale secondary ion mass spectroscopy (NanoSIMS) to propose a two-stage mechanism for thucholite development. NanoSIMS results suggest organic matter in thucholite cores formed by biological fractionation (represented by the presence of lighter 13 C/ 12 C and 34 S/ 32 S) while the outer organic mantle formed via radiolysis-induced polymerization. FESEM elemental analysis confirms compositional differences between the two thucholite components (core and mantle), further implying their contrasting origins. Dimensional comparison of thucholite cores and their U-bearing mineral morphologies to ancient and modern U-biomineralized microbes suggests that the thucholite cores formed from metal-biological interactions. The presence of volcanogenic biotite, alkali feldspar, and clay spherules (interpreted as devitrified volcanic glass) with thucholite suggests that the thucholite cores in the Salt Range Formation are biological responses to rapid paleoenvironmental change from volcanic eruption which preserved the fossilized morphologies of Proterozoic microorganisms.

Salt Range↗

Exploratory ecology of reintroduced elk in Virginia

Reintroductions of extirpated species are an important tool in wildlife conservation. Understanding how reintroduced populations acclimatize to novel environments can lend insight into social learning that in turn is valuable for assessing reintroduction success and maximizing efficacy of subsequent efforts. During 2012, 2013, and 2014, the Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources implemented soft releases of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) translocated to southwestern Virginia from eastern Kentucky. We investigated home range establishment and post-release movements of these reintroduced elk ( n = 60). We found adults moved farther from the release site than either yearlings or calves (F = 6.93, p = 0.001). Elk released in 2012 and 2013 took similar amounts of time to establish home ranges (median 181 days, range 108–214 days; and median 189 days, range 147–209 days, respectively), but individuals released in 2013 remained closer to the release site ( 𝑥 ̲ = 605.5 m, SD = 335.7 m, closer) presumably by joining established social groups. However, the 2014 cohort generally took longer to establish home ranges (median: 231 days; range: 56–258 days) and moved farthest from the release site ( 𝑥 ̲ = 1360.2 m, SD = 293.9 m, farther than 2012 individuals) possibly due to the larger cohort size and resulting intraspecific competition, or the earlier release date that year. Our findings suggest the number of consecutively released cohorts, the timing of the release, and the composition of age classes for released individuals are important considerations for reintroductions.

Virginia↗

Carryover effects across juvenile periods vary by species, cause-specific mortality, and stage-specific behavior

Conditions during one life-stage can carry over to influence fitness outcomes in later stages. How carryover effects manifest, however, may vary depending on the type and magnitude of risks that animals face in subsequent life-stages. The influence of carryover effects on cause-specific mortality remains largely unclear, particularly during vulnerable life-stages, including juvenile periods. We proposed and investigated the Cause-specific carryover hypothesis, that the relative influence of traits developed during a previous stage on mortality during the next vary by cause of mortality, using juvenile sagebrush songbirds (Brewer’s sparrow, Spizella breweri ; sagebrush sparrow, Artemisiospiza nevadensis ; sage thrasher, Oreoscoptes montanus ) as a focal system. We tracked birds during the post-fledging period (a juvenile period following the nestling period), identified the rates and causes of mortality, and tested the relative influence of different nestling traits (wing length, tarsus length, feather development, and body condition) on post-fledging mortality risk. Carryover effects varied across co-occurring species and differed by cause of mortality, and tarsus length had an unexpected and outsized impact on predation risk in the two sparrows. Although wing morphology typically is considered the most important trait for mobility in birds, most mortalities occurred during the first 5 days of the post-fledging period when altricial fledglings were incapable of flight and likely relied on running or scrambling ability to escape predators. Therefore, carryover effects were driven by stage-specific behavior during the period of highest risk. Developing animals may face investment trade-offs between morphological traits that influence different types of risk during different subsequent stages.

Wyoming↗

Osmium isotope constraints on Mauna Loa–Kilauea magmatic connectivity, Island of Hawai‘i

The Hawaiian volcanic chain exhibits a long-recognized double track of volcanism defined by the Loa and Kea trends, which erupt chemically and isotopically distinct lavas. Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, the two most frequently active volcanoes of the Loa and Kea trends, produce distinct endmember compositions. However, historical periods of compositional convergence have prompted debate regarding a potential magmatic connection between the two adjacent volcanoes. Proposed links include a shallow edifice-level plumbing system, a common magma source at ∼40 km depth, or a deeper asthenospheric source. In the latter scenario, based on correlated Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes and trace-element systematics, a “shared” mantle source supplies melt alternately to both volcanoes on multi-decadal timescales. Here, we use Os isotopes to evaluate the proposed connections. We measured Os isotopes in eight historical Mauna Loa tholeiites along with three Kīlauea tholeiites (1832 summit eruption; Uēkahuna Bluff; 2000 Pu‘u‘ō‘ō eruption) previously identified as isotopically intermediate between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea endmembers. We found that the acidic bromide leachates of all samples yield more radiogenic 187 Os/ 188 Os than corresponding bulk residues, with the labile Os-bearing phase comprising ∼0.4–27% of bulk Os. Mauna Loa tholeiites display nearly constant 187 Os/ 188 Os over the past ∼200 years (0.134–0.136; mean = 0.1357 ± 0.0013, n = 8, 2SD), despite large variations in total [Os] ranging from ∼30 pg/g (2022 tholeiite) to ∼966 pg/g (1868 picrite). The Kīlauea 1832 sample has 187 Os/ 188 Os = 0.1302 ± 0.0008, slightly higher than the Kīlauea endmember (0.1285 ± 0.0008), whereas the Uēkahuna Bluff and Pu‘u‘ō‘ō samples exhibit more elevated ratios (0.1314 ± 0.0008 and 0.1327 ± 0.0008, respectively). We conclude that the “shared” mantle source exerts negligible control on Mauna Loa Os isotope systematics. In contrast, the Kīlauea mantle source is more heterogeneous, with contributions from small-scale recycled domains with variable time-integrated Re/Os ratios.

Hawaii↗

Bayesian belief network model to predict human-wildlife conflict in protected areas

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a pervasive global challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening biodiversity. To better anticipate and mitigate HWC risk, we developed a large-scale predictive model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We surveyed 1,011 park rangers across 135 terrestrial protected areas in three Andean countries, documenting recent HWC incidents involving wildlife persecution or killing, livestock depredation, crop damage, or threats to human safety and property. We identified key drivers of HWC risk, including governance, wildlife acceptance, participation, and habitat quality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that enhancing governance and improving wildlife acceptance could reduce HWC risk by > 85%. The BBN model demonstrated scalability, effectively identifying strategies to reduce HWC risk at multiple scales, from individual protected areas to national networks. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, increasing wildlife acceptance, and enhancing community participation in conservation efforts. BBNs provide a flexible, cost-effective, and data-driven tool to guide protected areas and wildlife managers in monitoring, anticipating, and making informed decisions to mitigate conflict and promote coexistence.

Scientific Reports↗