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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Dormant-season prescribed fires can enhance forage quality for two growing seasons in the northwestern Great Plains

Fire is an ecological disturbance that can accelerate nutrient cycling and alter herbivore distribution in grasslands and shrublands. Historically and today, humans have used prescribed fire to enhance forage quality for wild and domestic herbivores, and to achieve other management objectives. Contextual factors such as ecosystem type, seasonality, and fuel characteristics can determine how prescribed fire affects forage quality. For example, forage quality enhancements are relatively short lived in shortgrass steppe and subhumid grasslands but may persist for multiple years in northern mixed-grass prairie and sagebrush steppe. Outcomes near ecosystem boundaries are uncertain. Using 152 independent, small-plot, prescribed burns completed over multiple years at 36 sites in Wyoming and South Dakota, USA, we tested the effects of ecosystem type (northern mixed-grass prairie vs. sagebrush grassland ecotone), burn seasonality (fall vs. spring), and fuel characteristics (ambient vs. added fuel) on forage quality. Across ecosystems, fall fires had strong positive effects on forage quality parameters during the first growing season after fire, and energy benefits that persisted into the second growing season after fire. In northern mixed-grass prairie, spring and fall prescribed fires implemented before the same growing season yielded similar forage quality enhancements for one season. Finally, artificially increased fuel loads had few effects on forage quality. Although forage quality rarely dropped below critical nutrition thresholds for ruminants regardless of burning, our findings suggest relatively consistent, positive forage quality responses to prescribed fire across ecosystem types, seasonality of dormant-season burns, and fuel characteristics. Many improvements lasted through one growing season, and some persisted into a second growing season. Managers could take advantage of short-term nutritional benefits via adaptive management strategies that allow animals access to burned and unburned areas.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming

Temperate inland wetlands have long been viewed as climate regulators, with sustained CO₂ sequestration offsetting continuous CH₄ emissions over centennial–millennial timescales. However, the net climatic effect of these opposing fluxes remains uncertain under anthropogenic warming as they differ in both magnitude and atmospheric lifetime. We combine 19,000 CH₄ chamber measurements from 202 temperate inland wetlands with carbon burial rates from 16 dated sediment cores in North America’s Prairie Pothole Region to estimate greenhouse gas dynamics over two centuries. Here we show that CH₄ emissions rise by ~1.39 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over the historical period and are projected to approach 950 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ under high-forcing scenarios by 2100, while CO₂ sequestration is expected to decline by ~0.3 kg CO₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, driving a shift toward persistent net CO₂-equivalent source behaviour and a weakening of the long-term cooling effect that wetlands have provided under natural conditions.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2026

CrustCheck: A conceptual framework for interpreting biocrust trait–function relationships in drylands

Introduction Biocrusts are increasingly recognized for their contribution to soil stability, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and energy balance in drylands, yet practical field methods for assessing functional roles are limited. Existing approaches typically rely on cover estimates, taxonomic identification, or laboratory analyses, providing little insight into functional variation among biocrust types. To address this gap, we developed CrustCheck, a literature-derived conceptual framework that synthesizes potential relationships between easily observable biocrust traits and key ecological functions. The framework provides a foundation for future empirical validation of these relationships. Objectives We aimed to: (1) identify visual characteristics of biocrusts potentially associated with key ecological functions, and (2) synthesize these relationships into a literature-derived conceptual framework for comparative interpretation of potential biocrust contributions to landscape function. Methods We conducted a structured review of global literature on biocrusts' contribution to landscape function, drawing on multiple databases, targeted journals, and identifying relevant scientific publications from reference lists. We screened sources for information on relationships between visual traits and metrics of landscape function, synthesized relationships thematically, and used them to develop a multi-trait, function-oriented conceptual framework to inform further testing of these hypotheses in the field. Results Our review revealed that visual traits such as thickness/height, patchiness, cover, and surface roughness emerged as potential indicators of surface stability, hydrological function, and nutrient accumulation. Community composition was also frequently associated with these functions, while color reflected energy balance and carbon fixation potential. Conclusions Literature reveals that visual traits of biocrusts may serve as proxies for landscape function. CrustCheck is presented here as a conceptual synthesis framework intended to support interpretation of potential trait–function relationships rather than as a quantitatively validated predictive tool.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2026

Bat skin microbiome and the association of ecoregion and bat species that impacted isolation of members with bioactivity against Pseudogymnoascus destructans

Background Microbiome constituents can serve as a primary defense against vertebrate pathogens. This may be crucial to the protection of North American bats who have been devastated over the last two decades by the fungal pathogen, Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) , which causes white-nose syndrome (WNS). The objectives of this study were to isolate members of the external microbiome of bats post-hibernation in Arizona and New Mexico before the arrival of WNS, to identify those bacteria with bioactivity against Pd , and to determine the variables associated with antifungal strains. Results In this study we isolated 2,936 bacteria from the fur and skin of 314 bats across 12 bat species at 6 sites across New Mexico and Arizona from 2013 to 2016. Selective media were used to promote the isolation of Actinomycetota (2,594 isolates, 88.4%), particularly species of Streptomyces (2,045 isolates, 69.7%) known for their bioactivity. Although Actinomycetota isolation was targeted, this collection includes representatives from Pseudomonadota (Alpha-, Beta -, and Gamma-Proteobacteria ), Bacillota , and Bacteroidota phyla also common to the bat microbiome. A bi-layer challenge assay performed on 1,089 isolates identified 61 bat-associated bacteria with activity against Pd. These results were pooled with efforts by Hamm et al. [ 1 ] to determine what metrics impacted isolation of bacteria that inhibit Pd ( n = 97). Ecoregion and bat species were determinant variables associated with Pd inhibition. Conclusions This study represents, to our best knowledge, the largest culture collection of bacteria from bats’ skin and fur before the impact of WNS. We identified bacteria with antifungal activity against Pd and found significant associations of bioactive strains with bat species and ecoregions.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2026

Thermal infrared and ultraviolet remote sensing of sulfur dioxide gas emitted during the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kilauea, Hawaiʻi

Ultraviolet (UV) remote sensing is widely used to detect volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) due to its high sensitivity and favorable spatial and temporal resolution. However, significant discrepancies have been reported between ground-based and satellite-based UV observations of dense volcanic plumes. A notable example is the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea, where SO₂ emission rates derived from ground-based Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements differed substantially from those obtained by the spaceborne Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). In this study, we investigate these differences by applying thermal infrared (TIR) satellite retrievals using a modified version of the SO₂-ALTA algorithm to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations. The resulting TIR-derived SO₂ fluxes are compared with ground-based DOAS data, satellite UV observations, and petrological estimates of gas emissions. Our results show strong agreement between TIR-derived fluxes, ground-based DOAS measurements, and petrological estimates, particularly during the peak and plateau phases of the eruption. In contrast, satellite UV-derived SO₂ emissions are systematically lower. We find that TIR observations are more effective in quantifying high-concentration SO₂ plumes in the near-vent region, while UV measurements are more sensitive under lower-concentration conditions but more affected by scattering in optically dense plumes. These findings highlight the complementary strengths of UV and TIR remote sensing techniques and emphasize the importance of accounting for plume density and observation geometry when interpreting satellite SO₂ retrievals.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Mid-Cretaceous porphyritic magmatism in the Beartooth Mountains of the northern Laramide foreland and its connection to Frontier Formation sediment dispersal in Bighorn basin, Montana-Wyoming (USA), and Cordilleran tectonism

Porphyritic intrusions in the southeast Beartooth Mountains and porphyritic cobbles from the Torchlight conglomerate of the Cenomanian Frontier Formation in Bighorn basin (Montana-Wyoming, USA) bear striking resemblance. We utilize geologic mapping, petrography, geochemistry, and geochronology to characterize rocks from both locations and test whether the Beartooth Mountains area was the provenance for Bighorn basin cobbles. Mapping on Line Creek Plateau in the Beartooth Mountains shows three units with porphyritic phenocrysts consisting dominantly of plagioclase, plagioclase + potassium feldspar, and plagioclase + quartz. Petrography shows embayed quartz, opacitic rims, and zoned plagioclase. Geochemistry characterizes the intrusions as trachydacite to trachyte and trace elements exhibit enrichment in light rare earth elements and slight depletion in heavy rare earth elements relative to primitive mantle. Zircon U-Pb dating shows substantial Archean inheritance and ca. 104−92 Ma dates; some samples display multiple mid-Cretaceous date populations. Bighorn basin porphyritic cobbles exhibit similar modal mineralogy, near-identical geochemistry, and Archean inheritance and mid-Cretaceous geochronology. We suggest the porphyritic cobbles were sourced from basement-hosted porphyritic intrusions now exposed in the Beartooth Mountains, given that geochemistry does not agree with coeval volcanic sources along the Frontier Formation depositional fairway (Idaho batholith) or sedimentary-hosted Beartooth Mountains porphyritic sills intruded into Cambrian shale. Stratigraphic evidence does not support kilometer-scale mid-Cretaceous Beartooth Mountains exhumation to expose basement-hosted porphyritic intrusions, and we therefore present a volcanic hypothesis to bring rocks to the surface. This mid-Cretaceous multimillion-year magmatism is unexplained by tectonic models for the north-central Laramide foreland, and thus we further explore the emplacement processes, spatiotemporal significance, and tectonic implications of these rocks.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Cascadia Subduction Zone science: Call for the next generation community seismic velocity model

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) hosts major seismic and tsunami hazards, yet key questions persist about the relationship between margin structure, fluid distribution, episodic tremor and slip, shallow megathrust behavior, shaking and tsunamigenesis, and the resulting hazard estimates. Addressing these problems requires an empirically grounded, three‐dimensional seismic velocity model to illuminate subsurface structure and properties and to provide a basis for geophysical studies such as earthquake simulations and ground‐motion estimation. In May 2024, the National Science Foundation‐funded Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) community velocity model (CVM) working group, with U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners, convened a workshop to identify priorities for such a model. Participants emphasized the features necessary for addressing key science questions, including implementing findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability (FAIR) access, capturing along‐strike and along‐dip structural heterogeneity, resolving shallow offshore–onshore structure, constraining elastic properties and quantifying their uncertainties for numerical wave propagation simulations, their validation benchmarks, and supporting associated accurate earthquake ground‐motion simulations and hazard assessments. This article describes the priorities defined in the workshop, and a description of how, guided by these needs, CRESCENT plans to develop multiple generations of a CVM to advance CSZ science and improve seismic and tsunami hazard modeling across the Pacific Northwest. The CVM will span the CSZ from the surface to ∼100 km depth, offshore and east of the Cascades into Idaho (∼132°–110° W) and the southern and northern tectonic regime transitions (∼36°–52° N) to capture the entire tectonic system as well as its surroundings.

Cascadia Subduction Zone↗
USGS2026

Steps toward a satellite-based global volcano monitoring and early warning system: From pilot to demonstrator to GVEWERS

The consequences of volcanic eruptions span a broad range. Large explosive eruptions that recur every several hundred to thousands of years can impact global climate, but even small eruptions of a magnitude that takes place multiple times each year someplace on Earth can have devastating effects given the large number of people who live near volcanoes. Ground-based monitoring is inadequate or lacking at many of the world’s active volcanoes, but satellite observations can fill important gaps and provide operational awareness of volcanic unrest and eruptions. The need for satellite monitoring of volcanoes has been articulated in numerous international agreements, and for some datasets, like thermal and ultraviolet imagery, daily or sub-daily monitoring has been incorporated into operational volcano surveillance. Utilization of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical datasets, however, has lagged. Since 2014, the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) has sponsored a series of projects designed to enhance access to, and utilization of, high-resolution SAR and optical satellite imagery for volcano monitoring. The efforts have culminated in the development of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (GVEWERS) initiative—a global and sustainable program intended to support volcano hazards assessment and mitigation. GVEWERS builds on lessons learned from a decade of CEOS volcano projects while also providing a foundation for continuing to improve the accessibility and exploitation of satellite data for better anticipating and responding to hazardous volcanic eruptions.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2026

What a difference a day makes: When and where are daily satellite observations of morphology and deformation needed during volcanic eruptions and unrest?

Daily high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery at active volcanoes could be used to anticipate eruptions and save lives, but is only rarely available or used in real time. Specifically, daily repeat coverage of ground deformation, topography, and surface morphology at volcanoes is now possible using high-spatial resolution optical and radar imagery (< 10 m/pixel). However, multiple satellites are needed—either constellations of four or more sibling satellites or a “virtual constellation” using several different types of satellites. As part of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (G-VEWERS) project of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), we review case studies at both erupting and restless volcanoes to identify scenarios where near-daily radar (both backscatter images and interferometric products) or optical data captured noteworthy changes, including Merapi and Mount Agung, Indonesia; La Soufrière, St. Vincent; Colima, Mexico; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; and Fagradalsfjall, Iceland. Finally, we consider the resources needed to scale this globally. There are 40–50 volcanoes erupting at any given time, but currently only about 10% have daily imaging at high-spatial-resolution. The allocations of high-spatial-resolution imagery available through G-VEWERS and other open datasets (~10,000 scenes/year) are < 60% of what is needed (~17,000 scenes/year) for daily imaging of all restless and erupting volcanoes. We therefore propose criteria to prioritize where daily satellite high-spatial-resolution observations may be useful continuously or under emergency conditions based on the threat and the type of volcano/eruption.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2026

The influence of surface crust dynamics and sediment availability on aeolian dust emission from ephemeral lake beds: Evidence from Etosha Pan, Namibia

Ephemeral lake beds (playas) are major global sources of atmospheric mineral dust, yet controls governing sediment availability and emission potential at fine spatial scales remain poorly constrained. This study presents the first in situ measurements of surface erodibility and potential PM 10 emission fluxes from Etosha Pan, Namibia. Threshold shear velocities and PM 10 emission fluxes were quantified using a Portable In-Situ Wind ERosion Laboratory (PI-SWERL) across five surface types spanning highly emissive hotspots to non-emissive consolidated salt crusts. Threshold shear velocities ranged from 0.38 m s −1 on deflated clay-rich surfaces to >1.14 m s −1 on recently inundated or cemented salt crusts, and PM 10 fluxes at u ⁎ = 0.56 m s −1 varied by more than three orders of magnitude. Emissions were highest where degraded efflorescent crusts exposed fine sediment, whereas halite-rich crusts exhibited greater mechanical strength and resisted wind erosion despite low surface moisture. X-ray diffraction analyses confirmed spatial variability in evaporite and silicate mineral assemblages, with halite abundance inversely related to dust emission potential. Antecedent hydrological conditions regulated sediment availability. Moderate wetting–drying cycles promoted weak, emissive crusts, whilst persistently wet or dry conditions were associated with continuous, resistant crusts and reduced emissions. Distinct emission regimes arose from differences in crust failure and saltation feedbacks, highlighting sub-landform-scale variability in dust sources. Crust dynamism, driven by spatial variability in surface conditions and antecedent hydrological regime, is identified as a key, under-represented control on dust emission. The relationships quantified here provide new empirical constraints for improving the representation of sediment availability in global dust modelling.

Etosha Pan↗
USGS2026

Oil in the Alaska North Slope gas hydrate reservoir: Micro-CT and flow simulation insights into permeability

Gas hydrate-bearing sands on the Alaska North Slope (ANS) host minor volumes of crude oil whose impact on formation permeability has never been quantified relative to a gas hydrate reservoir system. Here, we combine in situ pressure-core microcomputed-tomography (μ-CT), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), gas-chromatography–mass-spectrometry (GC–MS), scanning-electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), and Stokes-flow simulation to (i) quantify oil saturation, (ii) infer its source, and (iii) evaluate its influence on permeability after gas-hydrate dissociation. μ-CT and SEM-EDS imaging identify the host sediment as silty, with some grain-coating clay present. Eight representative 300 3 -voxel subvolumes extracted from a preserved pressure core (Core 15P-3c, from the B1 sand (unit B), HYDRATE 02 Geo Data Well (GDW), 886.96–887.29 m measured depth, MD) exhibit porosities of 0.34–0.37 and an average oil saturation of 0.09 ± 0.03, in comparison to an independent TGA-based estimate of 0.16. GC-MS fingerprints obtained from an adjacent depressurized core (Core 17P-1, 891.37–891.44 m MD), together with oil pore habit revealed by μ-CT, suggest that the oil is partly native but also includes contributions from mineral oil-based drilling fluid contamination. Further analysis of oil–porewater interactions and flushing tests confirms that native oil saturation in the analyzed samples ranges from 0.04 to 0.08 with an average of approximately 0.06, and the oil is highly immobile. Flow simulations demonstrate that the native oil saturation of ≈0.06 reduces permeability by approximately 50% due to both pore blockage and increased flow-path tortuosity. These findings reveal the potential presence of native oil within the ANS gas hydrate reservoir and suggest that future simulation models may need to account for its impact on permeability to improve long-term performance predictions of gas and water production.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between homeowners and trained assessors in wildland-urban interface communities across the western United States

Wildfire risk mitigation on private property is central to reducing community wildfire vulnerability. Homeowners have control over many of the key factors that contribute to wildfire risk on their parcels, yet vulnerable conditions persist. One potential explanation is a misalignment between homeowners' and trained assessors' perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk. Prior research has documented a “risk gap” in a single community wherein owners often underestimate their parcel-level wildfire risk; however, it is unclear whether such misalignments are widespread. This study replicates and expands previous research by examining the parcel-level wildfire risk gap in 38 wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities across the Western United States using paired data from household surveys and parcel-level wildfire risk assessments by trained assessors. We find that homeowners and assessors often perceive parcel characteristics differently. Homeowners may systematically mis-weight their importance, tending to underweight key controllable factors such as building materials and defensible space, leading to meaningful divergence from trained assessor ratings. Accordingly, we also find that homeowners generally underestimate overall parcel wildfire risk compared to trained assessors. These results suggest that even when homeowners recognize attributes on their parcels that contribute to wildfire risk, they may not fully grasp how much the attributes contribute to overall parcel risk, potentially failing to recognize the need to undertake meaningful mitigation actions. The findings from this study contribute to the broader natural hazards literature on expert-layperson risk perception gaps and offer insights for improving wildfire communication, education, and mitigation strategies in WUI communities.

Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

A ground-motion model derived using a generalized mean rupture distance for large slab interface earthquakes

Source–station distance is a central input to ground‐motion models (GMMs) for predicting seismic shaking. GMM development uses distance metrics including the Joyner–Boore distance, which is the shortest distance from an observation point to the surface projection of the earthquake rupture, and R rup the shortest distance to the rupture in three dimensions. Thompson and Baltay (2018) proposed the generalized mean rupture distance R p to address observed near‐fault ground‐motion saturation. R p accounts for the contribution to the shaking of all parts of the rupture and provides a simple method for incorporating spatially variable slip. They used R p to develop a GMM for shallow crustal earthquakes, assuming uniform slip. Here, we investigate the improvement offered by an R p ‐based GMM for large subduction interface earthquakes by recalibrating the path term for a published GMM ( Parker et al. , 2022 ) using R p derived from distributed slip models (DSMs). Inspection of within‐event and total residuals indicates that the recalibrated model fits the data at least as well as an alternative in which the path term was recalibrated using R rup and the same dataset. Incorporating slip information in its entirety or trimming the DSM geometry is preferable to assuming uniform moment release on a prescribed model fault that extends beyond the actual ruptured area. R p tuned to minimize model uncertainty is closer to the maximum distance to rupture for peak ground velocity (PGV) than acceleration, possibly reflecting the contribution to high‐frequency shaking of slip on local asperities. However, when the moment is concentrated far from stations, PGV is fit adequately with R p closer to R rup ⁠ . Our results suggest incorporating slip‐derived moment release through R p could improve GMMs for slab interface events, especially if the implementation of R p ‐based models is refined using a larger dataset of earthquakes with greater geographic diversity to account for regional ground‐motion variations.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Colored shaded-relief bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter maps of Jenkinson Lake with orthomosaic of the Sly Park Creek and Hazel Creek area, California

The Caldor Fire was ignited on August 14, 2021, and burned almost 222,000 acres (898 square kilometers) in forested terrain of the central and western Sierra Nevada, California. During the subsequent two months, the fire burned nearly all of Sly Park Creek watershed in El Dorado County. The El Dorado Irrigation District manages the water supply for the area using storage in Jenkinson Lake, a 1.6-kilometer- (1.0-mile-) wide and 3.6-kilometer- (2.2-mile-) long reservoir, located south of the town of Pollock Pines. Several weeks after the fire, the U.S. Geological Survey began investigations into post-fire landscape responses, including sediment yield, by measuring new sediment deposition in Jenkinson Lake. This study focused on the collection and processing of bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter data, as well as onshore aerial imagery in and around Jenkinson Lake, to support wildfire science after the Caldor Fire. A colored shaded-relief bathymetric map (sheet 1) and an acoustic backscatter map (sheet 2) show the lake floor morphology and backscatter intensities.

California↗
USGS2026

Flood-inundation maps of the Blue River and major tributaries in and near Kansas City, Missouri, 2023–25

Digital flood-inundation maps for 35.5 miles of the Blue River, in and near Kansas City, Missouri, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Kansas City. Maps were also developed for a combined 7.3 miles of Brush Creek (4.4 miles) and Indian Creek (2.9 miles), two primary tributaries to the Blue River in the study reach. The flood-inundation maps, available through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Program website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding, depth of water above first-floor elevations in selected buildings, water velocity, water-surface elevations, and time of travel corresponding to selected water levels or gage heights (hereafter referred to as “stages”) at nine reference USGS streamgages—five on the Blue River (USGS station numbers 06893590, 06893578, 06893500, 06893150, and 06893100), two on Brush Creek (USGS station numbers 06893562 and 06893557), one on Indian Creek (USGS station number 06893390), and one on the Missouri River (USGS station number 06893000). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages may be obtained from USGS Water Data for the Nation at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or the National Weather Service National Water Prediction Service at http://water.noaa.gov/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at seven of these sites (USGS station numbers 06893000, 06893590, 06893578, 06893500, 06893150, 06893557, and 06893390). Flood profiles were computed for eight map reaches by means of two-dimensional hydraulic models. The models were calibrated using the USGS-developed stage–streamflow relations at each reference streamgage. Two map reaches on the lower Blue River also include the effects of backwater from the Missouri River on flood inundation extent and hydraulic characteristics. The hydraulic models were used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datums. The profile stages ranged from the National Weather Service “Action Stage” or near bankfull to a stage exceeding the highest recorded water level at each streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a nonvegetated vertical accuracy of a maximum 10-centimeter root-mean-square error) to delineate the area flooded at each water level and the associated hydraulic characteristics. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel, resource managers, and residents with information that could be critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Kansas, Missouri↗
USGS2026

The path to FAIR research models: Lessons learned

Numerical modeling of Earth surface processes emerged as an important scientific tool in the late 1960s to mid-1970s, driven by the development of finite element methods in computer science. These advancements, initially applied in civil engineering, enabled scientists to simulate complex geological phenomena. At that time, models were often only described in publications, access was limited to researchers with direct connections to the developers, and the code was rarely documented for reuse, limiting their application beyond the original research context. The FAIR principles (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) as applied to data began to take shape in the 21st century with the rise of open science, digital repositories, and standardized data sharing frameworks. In the late 2010s, grassroots movements began to apply some of the FAIRness goals to numerical models. Subsequently, more formalized FAIR model principles were developed that addressed the specific needs of the scientific modeling community, resulting in the formulation of the FAIR principles for research software (FAIR4RS). In this study, we examine the development and implementation of strategies by two geoscience research infrastructures – the CSDMS (Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System) Model Repository and the U.S. Geological Survey Model Catalog – to enhance the FAIRness of models guided by FAIR4RS. Some of the development and implementation efforts described predate the formalization of FAIR and FAIR4RS principles, making this an ongoing and adaptive process. We evaluate the temporal progression towards increased FAIR4RS alignment across three phases of research infrastructure development: prototype, refinement, and growth and iteration. Although certain principles were more straightforward to implement early in prototypes of the catalog infrastructures, others required broader community collaboration during refinement, and some continue to pose practical challenges in the growth and iteration phase. By tracing these dynamics, our aim is to provide insights that can guide other modeling initiatives in effectively adopting FAIR4RS principles within their communities.

Geoscientific Model Development↗
USGS2026

Combining individual and close-kin mark–recapture to design an effective wildlife population survey

Close-kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is a promising approach for assessing population size of species that have been difficult to survey using more traditional methods. Here, we combine individual and close-kin mark–recapture in a single modeling framework (ICKMR) and provide an example of study design using this approach for Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ). We develop the ICKMR model and test it using simulated datasets, then use properties of the pseudo-likelihood to investigate the expected precision in estimates of abundance with different proposed survey designs. Our motivating example, the Pacific walrus, is an ice-associated marine mammal found in the Bering and Chukchi seas, where it is an important resource for Indigenous peoples. Pacific walrus abundance declined in the late 20th century, and it is currently a species of conservation concern due to potential impacts of climate change, particularly the loss of sea ice. To reduce uncertainty in population size estimates, researchers undertook a genetic mark–recapture sampling campaign from 2013 to 2017 and collected tissue samples from over 8000 individuals. Another campaign of a similar scale is ongoing (2023–2028). While sample collection was designed for individual mark–recapture, advances in CKMR methods and associated molecular techniques mean that these samples could also be suitable for CKMR. The advantages of CKMR over mark–recapture include an increased effective sample size (because each individual tags itself and its parents, siblings, and offspring) and additional insights into demographic quantities of interest. To make best use of genetic samples, we combine individual mark–recapture (IMR) with CKMR (ICKMR) and investigate whether different sampling strategies can increase precision in estimates of abundance. Our modeling approach includes special considerations for walrus life history, including a multi-year inter-birth interval. We found that expected coefficients of variation (CVs) of the ICKMR estimates of abundance, adult female survival, juvenile female survival, and proportion of breeding females are lower than those expected from IMR alone, and with ICKMR, fewer years of sampling can be conducted to obtain sufficient precision in estimates of abundance. This work demonstrates the utility of ICKMR and could be applicable across a variety of taxa.

Ecology↗