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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

Predictive models of phosphorus concentration and load in stormwater runoff from small urban residential watersheds in fall season

Urban street trees are a key part of public green infrastructure in many cities, however, leaf litter on streets is a critical biogenic source of phosphorus (P) in urban stormwater runoff during Fall. This study identified mass of street leaf litter (M leaf ) and antecedent dry days (ADD) as the top two explanatory parameters that have significant predictive power of event end-of-pipe P concentrations through multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. M leaf and volume of runoff (Vol) were the top two key explanatory parameters of event end-of-pipe P loads. Two-predictor MLR models were developed with these explanatory parameters using a 40-storm dataset derived from six small urban residential watersheds in Wisconsin, USA, and evaluated using storms specific to each study basin. The MLR model validation results indicated sensitivity to storm composition in the datasets. Our analysis shows selected parameters can be used by environmental managers to facilitate end-of-pipe P prediction in urban areas. This information can be used to reduce the amount of P in stormwater runoff by adjusting the timing and frequency of municipal leaf collection and street cleaning programs in urban areas.

Wisconsin

Fluvial delivery and wave resuspension of sediment in a sheltered, urbanized Pacific Northwest estuary

The sequence and timing of sediment delivery and redistribution in coastal systems is important for shoreline stability, ecosystem services, and remediation planning. In temperate estuaries, understanding the role of fluvial sediment delivery and dispersal relative to wind and wave remobilization processes is particularly important to address the fate of contaminants, many of which adsorb to fine particles, and to assess changes in coastal systems under projected changes in climate. Here we present an integrated analysis of observations at multiple timescales to evaluate sediment dynamics and the sedimentary coupling between fluvial and oceanographic processes within Bellingham Bay, Washington, USA, an urban estuary. Time-series data of currents, waves, and turbidity at four moorings along with geochemical data from grab samples and cores of seabed sediment from across the bay are contrasted with the dynamics of the Nooksack River, its fluvial sediment source. Even during large (5-yr return interval) river-flood events, water-column suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) near the bed on the outer delta topset was not correlated with Nooksack River runoff and was instead closely correlated with local wind-wave height. In contrast, near-surface SSC was strongly correlated with fluvial discharge, suggesting intense water-column suspended-sediment stratification during flood events. Grain-size and geochemical ( 7 "> 7 Be and excess 210 "> 210 Pb) results from seabed-sediment samples and historical bathymetric measurements of the subaqueous Nooksack River delta reveal spatial gradients of fluvial and wave influence and sediment-accumulation rates. Analysis of historical bathymetric surveys of the Nooksack River delta combined with the geochemical data reveal that about 75% of the fluvial sediment load can be accounted for in the Bellingham Bay receiving system. Studies of this type in urbanized coastal settings can help address ecological and geological questions regarding the risks from contaminants associated with fine-grained sediment, predict longer-term delta morphological evolution, and inform managers planning future coastal restoration efforts

Washington

A method for the use of landscape metrics in freshwater research and management

Freshwater research and management efforts could be greatly enhanced by a better understanding of the relationship between landscape-scale factors and water quality indicators. This is particularly true in urban areas, where land transformation impacts stream systems at a variety of scales. Despite advances in landscape quantification methods, several studies attempting to elucidate the relationship between land use/land cover (LULC) and water quality have resulted in mixed conclusions. However, these studies have largely relied on compositional landscape metrics. For urban and urbanizing watersheds in particular, the use of metrics that capture spatial pattern may further aid in distinguishing the effects of various urban growth patterns, as well as exploring the interplay between environmental and socioeconomic variables. However, to be truly useful for freshwater applications, pattern metrics must be optimized based on characteristic watershed properties and common water quality point sampling methods. Using a freely available LULC data set for the Santa Clara Basin, California, USA, we quantified landscape composition and configuration for subwatershed areas upstream of individual sampling sites, reducing the number of metrics based on: (1) sensitivity to changes in extent and (2) redundancy, as determined by a multivariate factor analysis. The first two factors, interpreted as (1) patch density and distribution and (2) patch shape and landscape subdivision, explained approximately 85% of the variation in the data set, and are highly reflective of the heterogeneous urban development pattern found in the study area. Although offering slightly less explanatory power, compositional metrics can provide important contextual information.

Landscape Ecology

Influence of new residential construction varying in housing density on bird species, human tolerance guilds, and communities

Human population growth and changing settlement patterns fuel the development of urban fringe lands worldwide, with implications for biodiversity. We conducted a 12-year study of birds in the fast-developing urban fringe lands of the central Puget Sound region, Washington, USA, to examine the effect of development configuration on birds. We hypothesized that lower-intensity conservation developments, compared to higher-intensity planned community developments, would benefit the overall bird community, as well as native forest birds (avoiders of human development) and avian generalist species (adapters to human development), but that higher-intensity planned community developments would benefit synanthropic species (exploiters of human development). We fit single-species and multi-species occupancy models to test these hypotheses. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found that a greater proportion of the overall community, avoiders, and adapters occupied lower-intensity conservation developments compared to higher-intensity planned community developments. However, we did not detect an effect of development type on the exploiter guild, and we found that species in the exploiter guild are variable in their response to the configuration of suburban developments. We also hypothesized that human tolerance guilds would be a useful predictor of individual species responses to development type. This hypothesis was somewhat supported: we found that, for avoiders, 87% of species in the guild had the same response to development type as the overall guild; for adapters, 63% had the same response as the overall guild, and for exploiters, only 44% had the same response as the overall guild. Our results indicate that the configuration of suburban developments can have a meaningful impact on bird communities, particularly on those species that are most sensitive to any level of development.

Washington

Effects of beaver dams and ponds on water quality in urban streams of the Tualatin River Basin, northwestern Oregon

Significant Findings American beavers ( Castor canadensis ) are native to the Pacific Northwest, and their populations have increased in many locations after being nearly removed by historical trapping. Beaver dams have well-documented effects on water quality in forested streams, but their effects on water quality in urban streams have not been well characterized. The study documented the water-quality effects of beaver dams and beaver activity in selected urban streams of the Tualatin River Basin in northwestern Oregon. Variations in water quality upstream, downstream, and within ponded areas behind beaver dams were quantified with continuous measurements of water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and pH from May 2016 to November 2017 in two intensively monitored reaches of urban streams (Fanno and Bronson Creeks). Five other urban stream reaches were monitored upstream and downstream from beaver ponds using water-temperature sensors to document water-temperature changes in additional beaver-affected reaches. Spatial water-quality variations within a beaver pond along Fanno Creek were characterized in more detail on four hot summer afternoons with numerous measurements of temperature and dissolved oxygen. Results from the study were used to document and derive insights from measured patterns in the water-quality data, such as the following: Shallow and unshaded ponds created by beaver dams (such as at Fanno Creek) capture more solar radiation than channelized and shaded stream reaches, resulting in substantially warmer water temperatures during summer. A large beaver pond along Fanno Creek had variable water depths and riparian shade, resulting in a wide range of water-temperature and dissolved-oxygen conditions. Some conditions measured during summer were stressful for sensitive aquatic species, with temperatures higher than 18 degrees Celsius (°C) and (or) dissolved-oxygen concentrations less than 2 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Although water flowing out of beaver-affected reaches was warmer than water entering the reaches, water tended to cool downstream when streams returned to a more-shaded, confined channel (such as at Fanno Creek) or received subsurface inputs and exchange (such as at Bronson Creek). The magnitude of water-temperature increases in beaver ponds depended on site characteristics, such as the surface area and depth of the ponds, the extent of riparian shade, and the potential for subsurface exchange. Beaver dams caused Fanno Creek to overflow its banks, resulting in a wide and shallow floodplain pond that had little riparian shade in most places. In contrast, Bronson Creek remained in its stream channel behind the beaver dams, was often deeper and more shaded, and had more subsurface water exchange than the Fanno Creek reach. Despite the longer reach length, these differences caused the Bronson Creek reach to warm less than the Fanno Creek reach. Beaver dams trapped sediment and organic matter, and ponding increased the time available for organic matter to decompose in the trapped sediments, thus consuming dissolved oxygen. The construction of a beaver dam in the monitored reach of Bronson Creek during the study caused an increase in oxygen demands and a rapid decrease in dissolved-oxygen concentrations. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations in monitored study reaches were affected by primary production (algal photosynthesis) and respiration, and hypoxic (low to zero dissolved oxygen) conditions were measured in the two intensively monitored reaches for multiple weeks during summer. Two single-station stream metabolism models were used to calculate net ecosystem production in the two intensively monitored urban stream reaches. Results indicated that the reaches were heterotrophic, with respiration demands consuming more oxygen than what was produced through photosynthesis. Beaver ponds at all sites had a measurable effect on water quality, causing wider ranges in temperature and dissolved-oxygen conditions than would have occurred without ponding. That wider range (both spatially and temporally) might support a variety of aquatic organisms, but also is likely to increase the frequency of water-quality standard violations in those beaver-affected reaches. Any water-quality effects or standard violations associated with beaver dams and ponds, however, may be localized or transitory along the stream network. Restored stream reaches can attract beavers. Considering the potential for beaver colonization when designing habitat restoration plans will require evaluation of the potential water-quality changes associated with beaver dams and ponds alongside other desired physical changes.

Oregon

A remote sensing approach for estimating the location and rate of urban irrigation in semi-arid climates

Urban irrigation is an important component of the hydrologic cycle in many areas of the arid and semiarid western United States. This paper describes a new approach that uses readily available datasets to estimate the location and rate of urban irrigation. The approach provides a repeatable methodology at 1/3 km 2 resolution across a large urbanized area (500 km 2 ). For this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery, air photos, climatic records, and a land-use map were used to: (1) identify the fraction of irrigated landscaping in urban areas, and (2) estimate the monthly rate of irrigation being applied to those areas. The area chosen for this study was the San Fernando Valley in Southern California. Identifying irrigated areas involved the use of 29 satellite images, air photos, and a land-use map. The fraction of a pixel that consists of irrigated landscaping (F irr ) was estimated using a linear-mixture model of two land-cover endmembers (selected pixels within a satellite image that represent a targeted land-cover). The two endmembers were impervious and fully-irrigated landscaping. In the San Fernando Valley, we used airport buildings, runways, and pavement to represent the impervious endmember; golf courses and parks were used to represent the fully irrigated endmember. The average F irr using all 29 satellite scenes was 44%. F irr calculated from hand-digitizing using air photos for 13 randomly selected single-family-residential neighborhoods showed similar results (42%). Estimating the rate of irrigation required identification of a third endmember: areas that consisted of urban vegetation but were not irrigated. This "nonirrigated" endmember was used to compute a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) surplus, defined as the difference between the NDVI signals of the irrigated and nonirrigated endmembers. The NDVI signals from irrigated areas remains relatively constant throughout the year, whereas the signal from nonirrigated areas rises and falls seasonally due to precipitation. The areas between airport runways were chosen to represent the nonirrigated endmember. Water-delivery records from 65 spatially-distributed single-family neighborhoods, consisting of nearly 1800 homes, were correlated with the NDVI surplus. The results show a strong exponential correlation ( r 2 = 0.94). In the absence of water-delivery records, which can be difficult to obtain, a surrogate was identified: the landscape evapotranspiration rate (ET L ). ET L was used to scale NDVI surplus (which is dimensionless) to irrigation rates using an exponential scaling function. The monthly irrigation rates calculated from satellite and climatic data compared well with irrigation rates calculated from actual water-delivery data using a paired Wilcoxan signed-rank test ( p = 0.0063). Identification of F irr at the pixel scale, along with identification of the irrigation rate for a fully-irrigated pixel, allows for mapping of urban irrigation over large areas. Maps showing the location and rate of monthly irrigation for the San Fernando study area were computed for January and August 1997.

California

Phytoplankton community and algal toxicity at a recurring bloom in Sullivan Bay, Kabetogama Lake, Minnesota, USA

Kabetogama Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, USA suffers from recurring late summer algal blooms that often contain toxin-producing cyanobacteria. Previous research identified the toxin microcystin in blooms, but we wanted to better understand how the algal and cyanobacterial community changed throughout an open water season and how changes in community structure were related to toxin production. Therefore, we sampled one recurring bloom location throughout the entire open water season. The uniqueness of this study is the absence of urban and agricultural nutrient sources, the remote location, and the collection of samples before any visible blooms were present. Through quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), we discovered that toxin-forming cyanobacteria were present before visible blooms and toxins not previously detected in this region (anatoxin-a and saxitoxin) were present, indicating that sampling for additional toxins and sampling earlier in the season may be necessary to assess ecosystems and human health risk.

Minnesota

Differences in mosquito communities in six cities in Oklahoma

Vector-borne diseases in the United States have recently increased as a result of the changing nature of vectors, hosts, reservoirs, pathogens, and the ecological and environmental conditions. Current information on vector habitats and how mosquito community composition varies across space and time is vital to successful vector-borne disease management. This study characterizes mosquito communities in urban areas of Oklahoma, United States, an ecologically diverse region in the southern Great Plains. Between May and September 2016, 11,996 female mosquitoes of 34 species were collected over 798 trap nights using three different trap types in six Oklahoma cities. The most abundant species trapped were Culex pipiens L. complex (32.4%) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) (12.0%). Significant differences among mosquito communities were detected using analysis of similarities (ANOSIM) between the early (May–July) and late (August–September) season. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) further highlighted the cities of Altus and Idabel as relatively unique mosquito communities, mostly due to the presence of Aedes aegypti (L.) and salt-marsh species and absence of Aedes triseriatus (Say) in Altus and an abundance of Ae. albopictus in Idabel. These data underscore the importance of assessing mosquito communities in urban environments found in multiple ecoregions of Oklahoma to allow customized vector management targeting the unique assemblage of species found in each city.

Oklahoma

Thirty years of the U.S. National Land Cover Database: Impacts and future direction

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD), developed through the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, was initiated 30 years ago and has continually provided critical, Landsat-based landcover and land-change information for the United States. Originally launched to address the lack of national-scale, moderate-resolution land-cover data, NLCD has evolved from the pioneering 1992 dataset into a comprehensive, annually updated product suite. Key innovations include the introduction of impervious surface mapping, forest canopy mapping, standardized Landsat mosaics, national-scale accuracy assessments, continual evolution of deep learning and artificial intelligence methodologies, and a transition toward operational, change-focused monitoring. The NLCD has become an essential resource for scientific research, land management, and policy development, with extensive adoption across federal, state, and local agencies; academia; and the private sector. The NLCD data underpin a wide array of applications, including biodiversity conservation, urban planning, hydrology, human health studies, and natural hazard assessment. As new global and high-resolution commercial land-cover products emerge, the NLCD continues to distinguish itself through its temporal depth, federal backing, and thematic consistency. Moving forward, the NLCD will maintain its niche as the leading, moderate-resolution, long-term land-cover and land-change dataset for the United States, ensuring continued support for broad national applications while complementing higher-resolution and global-mapping efforts.

Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing

Response of benthic algae to environmental gradients in an agriculturally dominated landscape

Benthic algal communities were assessed in an agriculturally dominated landscape in the Central Columbia Plateau, Washington, to determine which environmental variables best explained species distributions, and whether algae species optima models were useful in predicting specific water-quality parameters. Land uses in the study area included forest, range, urban, and agriculture. Most of the streams in this region can be characterized as open-channel systems influenced by intensive dryland (nonirrigated) and irrigated agriculture. Algal communities in forested streams were dominated by blue-green algae, with communities in urban and range streams dominated by diatoms. The predominance of either blue-greens or diatoms in agricultural streams varied greatly depending on the specific site. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicated a strong gradient effect of several key environmental variables on benthic algal community composition. Conductivity and % agriculture were the dominant explanatory variables when all sites ( n = 24) were included in the CCA; water velocity replaced conductivity when the CCA included only agricultural and urban sites. Other significant explanatory variables included dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), orthophosphate (OP), discharge, and precipitation. Regression and calibration models accurately predicted conductivity based on benthic algal communities, with OP having slightly lower predictability. The model for DIN was poor, and therefore may be less useful in this system. Thirty-four algal taxa were identified as potential indicators of conductivity and nutrient conditions, with most indicators being diatoms except for the blue-greens Anabaena sp. and Lyngbya sp.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ

Factors affecting nutrient trends in major rivers of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Trends in nutrient loads and flow-adjusted concentrations in the major rivers entering Chesapeake Bay were computed on the basis of water-quality data collected between 1985 and 1998 at 29 monitoring stations in the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, York, Patuxent, and Choptank River Basins. Two computer models-the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) and the U.S. Geological Survey's 'Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes' (SPARROW) Model-were used to help explain the major factors affecting the trends. Results from WSM simulations provided information on temporal changes in contributions from major nutrient sources, and results from SPARROW model simulations provided spatial detail on the distribution of nutrient yields in these basins. Additional data on nutrient sources, basin characteristics, implementation of management practices, and ground-water inputs to surface water were analyzed to help explain the trends. The major factors affecting the trends were changes in nutrient sources and natural variations in streamflow. The dominant source of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1985 to 1998 in six of the seven tributary basins to Chesapeake Bay was determined to be agriculture. Because of the predominance of agricultural inputs, changes in agricultural nutrient sources such as manure and fertilizer, combined with decreases in agricultural acreage and implementation of best management practices (BMPs), had the greatest impact on the trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations. Urban acreage and population, however, were noted to be increasing throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and as a result, delivered loads of nutrients from urban areas increased during the study period. Overall, agricultural nutrient management, in combination with load decreases from point sources due to facility upgrades and the phosphate detergent ban, led to downward trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations atmany of the monitoring stations in the watershed. The loads of nutrients, however, were not reduced significantly at most of the monitoring stations. This is due primarily to higher streamflow in the latter years of the monitoring period, which led to higher loading in those years. Results of this study indicate a need for more detailed information on BMP effectiveness under a full range of hydrologic conditions and in different areas of the watershed; an internally consistent fertilizer data set; greater consideration of the effects of watershed processes on nutrient transport; a refinement of current modeling efforts; and an expansion of the non-tidal monitoring network in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Relation of fish communities to environmental conditions in urban streams of the Wasatch Front, Utah

Twenty-eight sites along the Wasatch Front, north central Utah, representing the range ot urban land use intensity for wadeable streams of the area, were sampled in September 2000. Fish communities were assessed by single-pass electrofishing, and physical habitat and water-quality characteristics were measured. On average, nonnative species comprised 54% of species richness and 53% of relative abundance, although only Salmo trutta and Pimephales promelas were very abundant at any 1 site. Salmo trutta and Catostomus platyrhynchus, a native species, were the most widely distributed and abundant species captured. Analysis of fish communities using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) revealed a community gradient from sites dominated by Salmo trutta and Cottus species (C. bairdi, C. beldingi) to sites dominated by Catostomus platyrhynchus. Sites dominated by C. platyrhynchus were smaller in size and had less habitat cover, smaller average substrate size, higher concentrations of dissolved constituents, and higher water temperature than sites dominated by S. trutta. Sites dominated by C. platyrhynchus were located in more intensely urbanized watersheds at lower elevations. Stream size and associated instream habitat availability appear to limit S. trutta distribution and abundance, while native species appear more tolerant of decreased water quality and increased water temperatures in more urbanized streams. Most of the study sites are affected by development of water infrastructure for human water use (e.g., dams and diversions), and this infrastructure may play a role in dispersal of species.

Western North American Naturalist

A Comparison of Natural and Urban Characteristics and the Development of Urban Intensity Indices Across Six Geographic Settings

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems have been intensively investigated in six metropolitan areas in the United States. Approximately 30 watersheds in each area, ranging in size from 4 to 560 square kilometers (median is 50 square kilometers), and spanning a development gradient from very low to very high urbanization, were examined near Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh, North Carolina; Denver, Colorado; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Portland, Oregon; and Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin. These six studies are a continuation of three previous studies in Boston, Massachusetts; Birmingham, Alabama; and Salt Lake City, Utah. In each study, geographic information system data for approximately 300 variables were assembled to (a) characterize the environmental settings of the areas and (b) establish a consistent multimetric urban intensity index based on locally important land-cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic variables. This paper describes the key features of urbanization and the urban intensity index for the study watersheds within each area, how they differ across study areas, and the relation between the environmental setting and the characteristics of urbanization. A number of features of urbanization were identified that correlated very strongly to population density in every study area. Of these, road density had the least variability across diverse geographic settings and most closely matched the multimetric nature of the urban intensity index. A common urban intensity index was derived that ranks watersheds across all six study areas. Differences in local natural settings and urban geography were challenging in (a) identifying consistent urban gradients in individual study areas and (b) creating a common urban intensity index that matched the site scores of the local urban intensity index in all areas. It is intended that the descriptions of the similarities and differences in urbanization and environmental settings across these study areas will provide a foundation for understanding and interpreting the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems in the studies being conducted as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program.

Scientific Investigations Report

Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban stormwater, Madison, Wisconsin, 2005–08

Concentrations of 18 PAH compounds were characterized from six urban source areas (parking lots, feeder street, collector street, arterial street, rooftop, and strip mall) around Madison, Wisconsin. Parking lots were categorized into those that were or were not sealed. On average, chrysene, fluoranthene, and pyrene were the dominant PAH compounds in all urban stormwater samples. Geometric mean concentrations for most individual PAH compounds were significantly greater for a parking lot that was sealed than for lots that were not sealed. Results from this study are consistent with similar studies that measured PAH concentrations in urban stormwater samples in Marquette, Mich., and Madison, Wis.

Wisconsin

Urban flood analysis in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Flood insurance study information from the Federal Emergency Management Agency is utilized to estimate future flood hazard in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Techniques are described for estimating future urban runoff estimates. A method of developing stream cross section rating curves is explained. Future runoff estimates are used in conjuction with the rating curves to develop an estimate of 50- and 100- year flood profiles that would result from future urban development.

Open-File Report

Tracking geomorphic signatures of watershed suburbanization with multi-temporal LiDAR

Urban development practices redistribute surface materials through filling, grading, and terracing, causing drastic changes to the geomorphic organization of the landscape. Many studies document the hydrologic, biologic, or geomorphic consequences of urbanization using space-for-time comparisons of disparate urban and rural landscapes. However, no previous studies have documented geomorphic changes from development using multiple dates of high-resolution topographic data at the watershed scale. This study utilized a time series of five sequential light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derived digital elevation models (DEMs) to track watershed geomorphic changes within two watersheds throughout development (2002–2008) and across multiple spatial scales (0.01–1 km 2 ). Development-induced changes were compared against an undeveloped forested watershed during the same time period. Changes in elevations, slopes, hypsometry, and surface flow pathways were tracked throughout the development process to assess watershed geomorphic alterations. Results suggest that development produced an increase in sharp topographic breaks between relatively flat surfaces and steep slopes, replacing smoothly varying hillslopes and leading to greater variation in slopes. Examinations of flowpath distributions highlight systematic modifications that favor rapid convergence in unchanneled upland areas. Evidence of channel additions in the form of engineered surface conduits is apparent in comparisons of pre- and post-development stream maps. These results suggest that topographic modification, in addition to impervious surfaces, contributes to altered hydrologic dynamics observed in urban systems. This work highlights important considerations for the use of repeat LiDAR flights in analyzing watershed change through time. Novel methods introduced here may allow improved understanding and targeted mitigation of the processes driving geomorphic changes during development and help guide future research directions for development-based watershed studies.

Geomorphology

Synthesized flood frequency for small urban streams in Tennessee

Bridge, culvert, and highway design often require knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of flood discharge from small streams where the drainage basin is urbanized. The results of a 6-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey provide methods for estimating flood magnitudes for selected frequencies on small streams draining urban areas in Tennessee. A total of 22 rainfall-runoff sites located in basins with drainage areas of 0.21 to 24.3 square miles in size and in municipalities with populations between 5,000 and 100,000 were used to derive regionalized flood-frequency equations. Impervious area, measured from recent aerial photographs, ranged between 4.7 percent and 74.0 percent of the basin. The equations were derived by multiple regression analyses of snythetic flood-frequency estimates, derived from a rainfall-runoff modeling procedure, versus physical basin characteristics and a precipitation factor. These equations can be used to estimate the magnitude of future floods with recurrence intervals of 2 to 100 years on ungaged urbanized streams in Tennessee. One equation for each recurrence interval applies statewide. Flood-frequency estimates for stations used in the analyses and example computations demonstrating applications of the regression equations to urban streams in Tennessee are given in the report. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2000 to 2030 - A summary of findings

The San Francisco Bay region sits astride a dangerous “earthquake machine,” the tectonic boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates. The region has experienced major and destructive earthquakes in 1838, 1868, 1906, and 1989, and future large earthquakes are a certainty. The ability to prepare for large earthquakes is critical to saving lives and reducing damage to property and infrastructure. An increased understanding of the timing, size, location, and effects of these likely earthquakes is a necessary component in any effective program of preparedness. This study reports on the probabilities of occurrence of major earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) for the three decades 2000 to 2030. The SFBR extends from Healdsberg on the northwest to Salinas on the southeast and encloses the entire metropolitan area, including its most rapidly expanding urban and suburban areas. In this study a “major” earthquake is defined as one with M≥6.7 (where M is moment magnitude). As experience from the Northridge, California (M6.7, 1994) and Kobe, Japan (M6.9, 1995) earthquakes has shown us, earthquakes of this size can have a disastrous impact on the social and economic fabric of densely urbanized areas. To reevaluate the probability of large earthquakes striking the SFBR, the U.S. Geological Survey solicited data, interpretations, and analyses from dozens of scientists representing a wide crosssection of the Earth-science community (Appendix A). The primary approach of this new Working Group (WG99) was to develop a comprehensive, regional model for the long-term occurrence of earthquakes, founded on geologic and geophysical observations and constrained by plate tectonics. The model considers a broad range of observations and their possible interpretations. Using this model, we estimate the rates of occurrence of earthquakes and 30-year earthquake probabilities. Our study considers a range of magnitudes for earthquakes on the major faults in the region—an innovation over previous studies of the SFBR that considered only a small number of potential earthquakes of fixed magnitude.

California