Managing Pacific salmon escapements: The gaps between theory and reality
There are myriad challenges to estimating intrinsic production capacity for Pacific salmon populations that are heavily exploited and/or suffering from habitat alteration. Likewise, it is difficult to determine whether perceived decreases in production are due to harvest, habitat, or hatchery influences, natural variation, or some combination of all four. There are dramatic gaps between the true nature of the salmon spawner/recruit relationship and the theoretical basis for describing and understanding the relationship. Importantly, there are also extensive practical difficulties associated with gathering and interpreting accurate escapement and run-size information and applying it to population management. Paradoxically, certain aspects of salmon management may well be contributing to losses in abundance and biodiversity, including harvesting salmon in mixed population fisheries, grouping populations into management units subject to a common harvest rate, and fully exploiting all available hatchery fish at the expense of wild fish escapements. Information on U.S. Pacific salmon escapement goal-setting methods, escapement data collection methods and estimation types, and the degree to which stocks are subjected to mixed stock fisheries was summarized and categorized for 1,025 known management units consisting of 9,430 known populations. Using criteria developed in this study, only 1% of U.S. escapement goals are by methods rated as excellent. Escapement goals for 16% of management units were rated as good. Over 60% of escapement goals have been set by methods rated as either fair or poor and 22% of management units have no escapement goals at all. Of the 9,430 populations for which any information was available, 6,614 (70%) had sufficient information to categorize the method by which escapement data are collected. Of those, data collection methods were rated as excellent for 1%, good for 1%, fair for 2%, and poor for 52%. Escapement estimates are not made for 44% of populations. Escapement estimation type (quality of the data resulting from survey methods) was rated as excellent for <1%, good for 30%, fair for 3%, poor for 22%, and nonexistent for 45%. Numerous recommendations for improvements in escapement mangement are made in this chapter. In general, improvements are needed on theoretical escapement management techniques, escapement goal setting methods, and escapement and run size data quality. There is also a need to change managers' and harvesters' expectations to coincide with the natural variation and uncertainty in the abundance of salmon populations. All the recommendations are aimed at optimizing the number of spawners-healthy escapements ensure salmon sustainability by providing eggs for future production, nutrients to the system, and genetic diversity.