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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 775 records · Page 43Linked to original sources

USGS2003

Ground cracks associated with the 1994 double spring flat earthquake, west-central Nevada

The 1994 Double Spring Flat earthquake (M w 5.8) occurred within a densely faulted step-over between the Genoa and Antelope Valley faults, two principal normal faults of the transition zone between the Basin and Range Province and the northern Sierra Nevada . The earthquake created zones of ground cracks from 0.1 to 2.8 km long along at least five northwest- to north-northwest-striking faults in the epicentral area. Individual cracks had extensional openings generally from 1 to 10 mm wide. No cracks displayed obvious vertical separation, and only one zone showed permissive evidence of right-lateral separation. Over the 8 days following the mainshock (the period over which the cracks were found), aftershocks formed a dominant northeast trend suggesting the earthquake occurred along a northeast-striking structure. However, no ground breakage was found along faults striking parallel to this northeast aftershock alignment, and subsequent aftershocks formed a conjugate northwest trend. Based on the location and character of the five zones, the observed cracks are attributed to secondary fault slip and shaking effects. The earthquake also created ground cracks along at least two faults 15-25 km from the epicenter. In both of these cases, the faults had documented histories of prior ground cracking, indicating that they are particularly susceptible to such triggered deformation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

The earthquake cycle in the San Francisco Bay region: A.D. 1600–2012

Stress changes produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake had a profound effect on the seismicity of the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR), dramatically reducing it in the twentieth century. Whether the SFBR is still within or has emerged from this seismic quiescence is an issue of debate with implications for earthquake mechanics and seismic hazards. Historically, the SFBR has not experienced one complete earthquake cycle (i.e., the accumulation of stress, its release primarily as coseismic slip during surface‐faulting earthquakes, its re‐accumulation in the interval following, and its subsequent rerelease). The historical record of earthquake occurrence in the SFBR appears to be complete at about M 5.5 back to 1850 ( Bakun, 1999 ). For large events, the record may be complete back to 1776, which represents about half a cycle. Paleoseismic data provide a more complete view of the most recent pre‐1906 SFBR earthquake cycle, extending it back to about 1600. Using these, we have developed estimates of magnitude and seismic moment for alternative sequences of surface‐faulting paleoearthquakes occurring between 1600 and 1776 on the region’s major faults. From these we calculate seismic moment and moment release rates for different time intervals between 1600 and 2012. These show the variability in moment release and suggest that, in the SFBR regional plate boundary, stress can be released on a single fault in great earthquakes such as that in 1906 and in multiple ruptures distributed on the regional plate boundary fault system on a decadal time scale.

California↗

USGS2020

The predictive skills of elastic Coulomb rate-and-state aftershock forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence

Operational earthquake forecasting protocols commonly use statistical models for their recognized ease of implementation and robustness in describing the short-term spatiotemporal patterns of triggered seismicity. However, recent advances on physics-based aftershock forecasting reveal comparable performance to the standard statistical counterparts with significantly improved predictive skills when fault and stress field heterogeneities are considered. Here, we perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment during the first month of the 2019 Ridgecrest (California) earthquake sequence. We develop seven Coulomb rate-and-state models that couple static stress change estimates with continuum mechanics expressed by the rate-and-state friction laws. Our model parametrization supports a gradually increasing complexity; we start from a preliminary model implementation with simplified slip distributions and spatially homogeneous receiver faults to reach an enhanced one featuring optimized fault constitutive parameters, finite-fault slip models, secondary triggering effects, and spatially heterogenous planes informed by pre-existing ruptures. The data-rich environment of Southern California allows us to test whether incorporating data collected in near real-time during an unfolding earthquake sequence boosts our predictive power. We assess the absolute and relative performance of the forecasts by means of statistical tests used within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and compare their skills against a standard benchmark ETAS model for the short (24 hours after the two Ridgecrest mainshocks) and intermediate-term (one month). Stress-based forecasts expect heightened rates along the whole near-fault region and increased expected seismicity rates in Central Garlock Fault. Our comparative model evaluation supports that faulting heterogeneities coupled with secondary triggering effects are the most critical success components behind physics-based forecasts, but also underlines the importance of model updates incorporating near real-time available aftershock data reaching better performance than ETAS models. We explore the physical basis behind our results by investigating the localized shut down of pre-existing normal faults in the Ridgecrest near-source area.

California↗

USGS2001

Known and suggested quaternary faulting in the midcontinent United States

The midcontinent United States between the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains contains 40 known faults or other potentially tectonic features for which published geologic information shows or suggests Quaternary tectonic faulting. We report results of a systematic evaluation of published and other publicly available geologic evidence of Quaternary faulting. These results benefit seismic-hazard assessments by (1) providing some constraints on the recurrence intervals and magnitudes of large, prehistoric earthquakes, and (2) identifying features that warrant additional study. For some features, suggested Quaternary tectonic faulting has been disproved, whereas, for others, the suggested faulting remains questionable. Of the 40 features, nine have clear geologic evidence of Quaternary tectonic faulting associated with prehistoric earthquakes, and another six features have evidence of nontectonic origins. An additional 12 faults, uplifts, or historical seismic zones lack reported paleoseismological evidence of large. Quaternary earthquakes. The remaining 13 features require further paleoseismological study to determine if they have had Quaternary earthquakes that were larger than any known from local historical records; seven of these 13 features are in or near urbanized areas where their study could affect urban hazard estimates. These seven are: (1) the belt of normal faults that rings the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to Texas. (2) the Northeast Ohio seismic zone, (3) the Valmont and (4) Goodpasture faults of Colorado. (5) the Champlain lowlands normal faults of New York State and Vermont, and (6) the Lexington and (7) Kentucky River fault systems of eastern Kentucky. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2012

Paleoseismicity and neotectonics of the Cordillera Blanca fault zone, northern Peruvian Andes

The Cordillera Bianca fault zone is a major west dipping normal fault that bounds the west side of a 120- to 170-km-wide zone of active extension along the crest of the northern Peruvian Andes. The fault is approximately 210 km long and exhibits continuous geomorphic evidence of repeated late Pleistocene and Holocene displacements but has not been the source of historical or teleseismically recorded earthquakes. Trenching and mapping of fault scarps provide new information on earthquake recurrence, slip rate, timing of the most recent events, and Andean neotectonics. At Quebrada Queroccocha, 55 km from the south end of the zone, an 11,000- to 14,000-year-old moraine is displaced 12–15 m, and younger valley fill lacustrine and fluvial deposits are displaced 7.5–8 m. Scarp profiles, tectonic terraces, and trench exposures indicate five to seven scarp-forming earthquakes of 2–3 m per event during the past 11,000–14,000 years at this location. Considering uncertainties in the number of events and in the age of the displaced moraine, the average recurrence interval is estimated to be 2440±1060 years. Detrital charcoal from colluviums that predate and postdate the most recent event yielded ages of 2480±65 and 750+80 14 C years B.P., respectively, and stratigraphic relationships suggest that the event may be closer to the older date. The late Quaternary slip rate at Quebrada Queroccocha is 0.86–1.36 mm/yr and appears to be representative of much of the fault zone. At Pachma Bajo, located 30 km from the north end of the zone on a separate segment, displacement during each of the past two events was 2 to ≥ 3 m. The morphology of scarps in alluvial fan and debris flow deposits indicates recurrence intervals of about 1000–3000 years. Relationships between pre-Inca walls and faulted deposits suggest that 1500–2000 years have elapsed since the most recent event. Fault behavior parameters, particularly displacement per event and fault segment length, show that the Cordillera Bianca fault zone is similar to seismogenic normal faults that nucleate M 7–7½ earthquakes at depths of approximately 15 km. The Quebrada Queroccocha slip rate and analysis of other normal faults in the region suggest cumulative late Quaternary extensional strain rates of about 1–4 mm/yr across the complete zone of Andean crestal extension.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature↗

USGS2003

Intraplate triggered earthquakes: Observations and interpretation

We present evidence that at least two of the three 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, mainshocks and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake triggered earthquakes at regional distances. In addition to previously published evidence for triggered earthquakes in the northern Kentucky/southern Ohio region in 1812, we present evidence suggesting that triggered events might have occurred in the Wabash Valley, to the south of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and near Charleston, South Carolina. We also discuss evidence that earthquakes might have been triggered in northern Kentucky within seconds of the passage of surface waves from the 23 January 1812 New Madrid mainshock. After the 1886 Charleston earthquake, accounts suggest that triggered events occurred near Moodus, Connecticut, and in southern Indiana. Notwithstanding the uncertainty associated with analysis of historical accounts, there is evidence that at least three out of the four known Mw 7 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States seem to have triggered earthquakes at distances beyond the typically assumed aftershock zone of 1-2 mainshock fault lengths. We explore the possibility that remotely triggered earthquakes might be common in low-strain-rate regions. We suggest that in a low-strain-rate environment, permanent, nonelastic deformation might play a more important role in stress accumulation than it does in interplate crust. Using a simple model incorporating elastic and anelastic strain release, we show that, for realistic parameter values, faults in intraplate crust remain close to their failure stress for a longer part of the earthquake cycle than do faults in high-strain-rate regions. Our results further suggest that remotely triggered earthquakes occur preferentially in regions of recent and/or future seismic activity, which suggests that faults are at a critical stress state in only some areas. Remotely triggered earthquakes may thus serve as beacons that identify regions of long-lived stress concentration.

South Carolina↗

USGS1999

Integration of high-resolution seismic and aeromagnetic data for earthquake hazards evaluations: An example from the Willamette Valley, Oregon

Aeromagnetic and high-resolution seismic reflection data were integrated to place constraints on the history of seismic activity and to determine the continuity of the possibly active, yet largely concealed Mount Angel fault in the Willamette Valley, Oregon. Recent seismic activity possibly related to the 20-km-long fault includes a swarm of small earthquakes near Woodburn in 1990 and the magnitude 5.6 Scotts Mills earthquake in 1993. Newly acquired aeromagnetic data show several large northwest-trending anomalies, including one associated with the Mount Angel fault. The magnetic signature indicates that the fault may actually extend 70 km across the Willamette Valley to join the Newberg and Gales Creek faults in the Oregon Coast Range. We collected 24-fold high-resolution seismic reflection data along two transects near Woodburn, Oregon, to image the offset of the Miocene-age Columbia River Basalts ( CRB ) and overlying sediments at and northwest of the known mapped extent of the Mount Angel fault. The seismic data show a 100-200-m offset in the CRB reflector at depths from 300 to 700 m. Folded or offset sediments appear above the CRB with decreasing amplitude to depths as shallow as were imaged (approximately 40 m). Modeling experiments based on the magnetic data indicate, however, that the anomaly associated with the Mount Angel fault is not caused solely by an offset of the CRB and overlying sediments. Underlying magnetic sources, which we presume to be volcanic rocks of the Siletz terrane, must have vertical offsets of at least 500 m to fit the observed data. We conclude that the Mount Angel fault appears to have been active since Eocene age and that the Gales Creek, Newberg, and Mount Angel faults should be considered a single potentially active fault system. This fault, as well as other parallel northwest-trending faults in the Willamette Valley, should be considered as risks for future potentially damaging earthquakes.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

The Evergreen basin and the role of the Silver Creek fault in the San Andreas fault system, San Francisco Bay region, California

The Evergreen basin is a 40-km-long, 8-km-wide Cenozoic sedimentary basin that lies mostly concealed beneath the northeastern margin of the Santa Clara Valley near the south end of San Francisco Bay (California, USA). The basin is bounded on the northeast by the strike-slip Hayward fault and an approximately parallel subsurface fault that is structurally overlain by a set of west-verging reverse-oblique faults which form the present-day southeastward extension of the Hayward fault. It is bounded on the southwest by the Silver Creek fault, a largely dormant or abandoned fault that splays from the active southern Calaveras fault. We propose that the Evergreen basin formed as a strike-slip pull-apart basin in the right step from the Silver Creek fault to the Hayward fault during a time when the Silver Creek fault served as a segment of the main route by which slip was transferred from the central California San Andreas fault to the Hayward and other East Bay faults. The dimensions and shape of the Evergreen basin, together with palinspastic reconstructions of geologic and geophysical features surrounding it, suggest that during its lifetime, the Silver Creek fault transferred a significant portion of the ∼100 km of total offset accommodated by the Hayward fault, and of the 175 km of total San Andreas system offset thought to have been accommodated by the entire East Bay fault system. As shown previously, at ca. 1.5–2.5 Ma the Hayward-Calaveras connection changed from a right-step, releasing regime to a left-step, restraining regime, with the consequent effective abandonment of the Silver Creek fault. This reorganization was, perhaps, preceded by development of the previously proposed basin-bisecting Mount Misery fault, a fault that directly linked the southern end of the Hayward fault with the southern Calaveras fault during extinction of pull-apart activity. Historic seismicity indicates that slip below a depth of 5 km is mostly transferred from the Calaveras fault to the Hayward fault across the Mission seismic trend northeast of the Evergreen basin, whereas slip above a depth of 5 km is transferred through a complex zone of oblique-reverse faults along and over the northeast basin margin. However, a prominent groundwater flow barrier and related land-subsidence discontinuity coincident with the concealed Silver Creek fault, a discontinuity in the pattern of seismicity on the Calaveras fault at the Silver Creek fault intersection, and a structural sag indicative of a negative flower structure in Quaternary sediments along the southwest basin margin indicate that the Silver Creek fault has had minor ongoing slip over the past few hundred thousand years. Two earthquakes with ∼M6 occurred in A.D. 1903 in the vicinity of the Silver Creek fault, but the available information is not sufficient to reliably identify them as Silver Creek fault events.

California↗

USGS2001

Viscoelastic shear zone model of a strike-slip earthquake cycle

I examine the behavior of a two-dimensional (2-D) strike-slip fault system embedded in a 1-D elastic layer (schizosphere) overlying a uniform viscoelastic half-space (plastosphere) and within the boundaries of a finite width shear zone. The viscoelastic coupling model of Savage and Prescott [1978] considers the viscoelastic response of this system, in the absence of the shear zone boundaries, to an earthquake occurring within the upper elastic layer, steady slip beneath a prescribed depth, and the superposition of the responses of multiple earthquakes with characteristic slip occurring at regular intervals. So formulated, the viscoelastic coupling model predicts that sufficiently long after initiation of the system, (1) average fault-parallel velocity at any point is the average slip rate of that side of the fault and (2) far-field velocities equal the same constant rate. Because of the sensitivity to the mechanical properties of the schizosphere-plastosphere system (i.e., elastic layer thickness, plastosphere viscosity), this model has been used to infer such properties from measurements of interseismic velocity. Such inferences exploit the predicted behavior at a known time within the earthquake cycle. By modifying the viscoelastic coupling model to satisfy the additional constraint that the absolute velocity at prescribed shear zone boundaries is constant, I find that even though the time-averaged behavior remains the same, the spatiotemporal pattern of surface deformation (particularly its temporal variation within an earthquake cycle) is markedly different from that predicted by the conventional viscoelastic coupling model. These differences are magnified as plastosphere viscosity is reduced or as the recurrence interval of periodic earthquakes is lengthened. Application to the interseismic velocity field along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault suggests that the region behaves mechanically like a ???600-km-wide shear zone accommodating 50 mm/yr fault-parallel motion distributed between the San Andreas fault system and Eastern California Shear Zone. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

California↗

USGS2016

RMT focal plane sensitivity to seismic network geometry and faulting style

Modern tectonic studies often use regional moment tensors (RMTs) to interpret the seismotectonic framework of an earthquake or earthquake sequence; however, despite extensive use, little existing work addresses RMT parameter uncertainty. Here, we quantify how network geometry and faulting style affect RMT sensitivity. We examine how data-model fits change with fault plane geometry (strike and dip) for varying station configurations. We calculate the relative data fit for incrementally varying geometries about a best-fitting solution, applying our workflow to real and synthetic seismograms for both real and hypothetical station distributions and earthquakes. Initially, we conduct purely observational tests, computing RMTs from synthetic seismograms for hypothetical earthquakes and a series of well-behaved network geometries. We then incorporate real data and station distributions from the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD), which recorded aftershocks of the 2010 M W 8.8 Maule earthquake, and a set of regional stations capturing the ongoing earthquake sequence in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We consider RMTs computed under three scenarios: (1) real seismic records selected for high data quality; (2) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for the observed source-station pairings and (3) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for all possible station-source pairings. To assess RMT sensitivity for each test, we observe the ‘fit falloff’, which portrays how relative fit changes when strike or dip varies incrementally; we then derive the ranges of acceptable strikes and dips by identifying the span of solutions with relative fits larger than 90 per cent of the best fit. For the azimuthally incomplete IMAD network, Scenario 3 best constrains fault geometry, with average ranges of 45° and 31° for strike and dip, respectively. In Oklahoma, Scenario 3 best constrains fault dip with an average range of 46°; however, strike is best constrained by Scenario 1, with a range of 26°. We draw two main conclusions from this study. (1) Station distribution impacts our ability to constrain RMTs using waveform time-series; however, in some tectonic settings, faulting style also plays a significant role and (2) increasing station density and data quantity (both the number of stations and the number of individual channels) does not necessarily improve RMT constraint. These results may be useful when organizing future seismic deployments (e.g. by concentrating stations in alignment with anticipated nodal planes), and in computing RMTs, either by guiding a more rigorous data selection process for input data or informing variable weighting among the selected data (e.g. by eliminating the transverse component when strike-slip mechanisms are expected).

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2012

Rapid acceleration leads to rapid weakening in earthquake-like laboratory experiments

After nucleation, a large earthquake propagates as an expanding rupture front along a fault. This front activates countless fault patches that slip by consuming energy stored in Earth’s crust. We simulated the slip of a fault patch by rapidly loading an experimental fault with energy stored in a spinning flywheel. The spontaneous evolution of strength, acceleration, and velocity indicates that our experiments are proxies of fault-patch behavior during earthquakes of moment magnitude (M w ) = 4 to 8. We show that seismically determined earthquake parameters (e.g., displacement, velocity, magnitude, or fracture energy) can be used to estimate the intensity of the energy release during an earthquake. Our experiments further indicate that high acceleration imposed by the earthquake’s rupture front quickens dynamic weakening by intense wear of the fault zone.

Science↗

USGS2006

A note on the correlation between geophysical observations and seismicity in the Arava/(Araba) Valley at the southern part of the Dead Sea fault

The spatial distribution of the earthquakes in the Arava Valley, a 150-km section of the Dead Sea Transform, is compared for the first time with the local subsurface geological features derived from geophysical and geological data. Gravity data suggested that the Gharandal, Timna, and Elat basins were filled by low-density young sediments. These features were confirmed by seismic reflection profiles and high-resolution aeromagnetic (HRAM) survey. The HRAM survey delineated the trace of the Dead Sea Transform (DST), which separates magnetic anomalies in the eastern and western parts of the valley, and revealed the occurrence of the unknown deep magmatics. Overall, the earthquake activity appears to be strongly related to the Dead Sea Transform. However, on a local scale, there is no apparent correlation between the seismicity and the mapped fault segments comprising the DST fault system. Absence of the correlation may be a result of insufficient accuracy of the earthquake localization and/or the inclined fault plane. However, in spite of such inaccuracy, it is clearly observed that the large clusters of the low-magnitude earthquakes coincide well with the sedimentary basins. Two pronounced clusters appear to coincide with the subsurface magmatics. We assume that the subsurface geology predetermines areas of stress accumulation and earthquakes. These areas can be the end of faults, or fault jogs, which sometimes create basins. Magmatism can also be affected by the stress field and predetermine the stress and earthquakes' allocation. ?? 2007 Science From Israel/LPPLtd.

Israel Journal of Earth Sciences↗

USGS1999

Subduction zone and crustal dynamics of western Washington; a tectonic model for earthquake hazards evaluation

The Cascadia subduction zone is extremely complex in the western Washington region, involving local deformation of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and complicated block structures in the crust. It has been postulated that the Cascadia subduction zone could be the source for a large thrust earthquake, possibly as large as M9.0. Large intraplate earthquakes from within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Puget Sound region have accounted for most of the energy release in this century and future such large earthquakes are expected. Added to these possible hazards is clear evidence for strong crustal deformation events in the Puget Sound region near faults such as the Seattle fault, which passes through the southern Seattle metropolitan area. In order to understand the nature of these individual earthquake sources and their possible interrelationship, we have conducted an extensive seismotectonic study of the region. We have employed P-wave velocity models developed using local earthquake tomography as a key tool in this research. Other information utilized includes geological, paleoseismic, gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, deformation, seismicity, focal mechanism and geodetic data. Neotectonic concepts were tested and augmented through use of anelastic (creep) deformation models based on thin-plate, finite-element techniques developed by Peter Bird, UCLA. These programs model anelastic strain rate, stress, and velocity fields for given rheological parameters, variable crust and lithosphere thicknesses, heat flow, and elevation. Known faults in western Washington and the main Cascadia subduction thrust were incorporated in the modeling process. Significant results from the velocity models include delineation of a previously studied arch in the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The axis of the arch is oriented in the direction of current subduction and asymmetrically deformed due to the effects of a northern buttress mapped in the velocity models. This buttress occurs under the North Cascades region of Washington and under southern Vancouver Island. We find that regional faults zones such as the Devils Mt. and Darrington zones follow the margin of this buttress and the Olympic-Wallowa lineament forms its southern boundary east of the Puget Lowland. Thick, high-velocity, lower-crustal rocks are interpreted to be a mafic/ultramafic wedge occuring just above the subduction thrust. This mafic wedge appears to be jointly deformed with the arch, suggesting strong coupling between the subducting plate and upper plate crust in the Puget Sound region at depths >30 km. Such tectonic coupling is possible if brittle-ductile transition temperatures for mafic/ultramafic rocks on both sides of the thrust are assumed. The deformation models show that dominant north-south compression in the coast ranges of Washington and Oregon is controlled by a highly mafic crust and low heat flow, allowing efficient transmission of margin-parallel shear from Pacific plate interaction with North America. Complex stress patterns which curve around the Puget Sound region require a concentration of northwest-directed shear in the North Cascades of Washington. The preferred model shows that greatest horizontal shortening occurs across the Devils Mt. fault zone and the east end of the Seattle fault.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1998

Two-way coupling between Vesuvius eruptions and southern Apennine earthquakes, Italy, by elastic stress transfer

During the past 1000 years, eruptions of Vesuvius have often been accompanied by large earthquakes in the Apennines 50–60 km to the northeast. Statistical investigations had shown that earthquakes often preceded eruptions, typically by less than a decade, but did not provide a physical explanation for the correlation. Here, we explore elastic stress interaction between earthquakes and eruptions under the hypothesis that small stress changes can promote events when the Apennine normal faults and the Vesuvius magma body are close to failure. We show that earthquakes can promote eruptions by compressing the magma body at depth and opening suitably oriented near-surface conduits. Voiding the magma body in turns brings these same normal faults closer to Coulomb failure, promoting earthquakes. Such a coupling is strongest if the magma reservoir is a dike oriented normal to the regional extension axis, parallel to the Apennines, and the near-surface conduits and fissures are oriented normal to the Apennines. This preferred orientation suggests that the eruptions issuing from such fissures should be most closely linked in time to Apennine earthquakes. Large Apennine earthquakes since 1400 are calculated to have transferred more stress to Vesuvius than all but the largest eruptions have transferred to Apennine faults, which may explain why earthquakes more commonly lead than follow eruptions. A two-way coupling may thus link earthquakes and Vesuvius eruptions along a 100-km-long set of faults. We test the statistical significance of the earthquake-eruption correlation in the two-way coupling zone, and find a correlation significant at the 95% confidence level.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2018

Holocene fault reactivation in the eastern Cascades, Washington

Significant uncertainty remains concerning how and where crustal shortening occurs throughout the eastern Cascade Range in Washington State. Using light detection and ranging (lidar) imagery, we identified an ∼ 5 ‐ km ‐ long "> ∼5‐km‐long lineament in Swakane canyon near Wenatchee, roughly coincident with a strand of the Entiat fault. Topographic profiles across the lineament reveal a southwest‐side‐up break in slope, with an average of 2–3 m of vertical separation of the hillslope surface. We consider a range of possible origins for this feature, including differential erosion across a fault‐line scarp, slope failure (sackung or landslide), and surface deformation across an active fault strand. Based on trenching, radiocarbon and luminescence dating, and ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) across the lineament, we conclude that warped saprolite observed in the shallow subsurface is most consistent with southwest‐side‐up folding caused by blind reverse faulting at depth. Following this reasoning, dating of overlying colluvial deposits suggests that at least one Holocene earthquake occurred on this strand of the southern Entiat fault, with an approximate vertical separation of ≥ 1    m "> m ≥1 m . GPR reveals up to 4 m of cumulative vertical separation of the saprolite, suggesting a history of multiple earthquakes on the structure. Taken in context with other potential fault‐related lineaments along the Entiat fault, our interpretation of Holocene earthquakes in Swakane canyon could suggest reactivation of longer sections of the Entiat fault, as well as of other bedrock faults in the eastern Cascades. Although active erosion and slow strain rates lead to a subdued geomorphic expression of recent deformation, we conclude that the reactivated Entiat fault represents a seismogenic structure that should be considered in regional seismic hazard analyses. The difficulty of recognizing low‐slip‐rate structures in forested and mountainous terrain underscores the importance of additional lidar surveys and geological and geophysical studies for fully understanding seismic hazard in regions with infrequent but potentially large earthquakes.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Rupture scenarios for the 3 June 1770 Haiti earthquake

The 2010 M 7.0 Haiti earthquake provided the impetus to reconsider historical earthquakes in Hispaniola ( Bakun et al. , 2012 ). That earthquake also shed new light on complex fault systems along Haiti’s southern peninsula ( Douilly et al. , 2013 ; Saint Fleur et al. , 2015 ). Recently, the 2021 M 7.2 Nippes earthquake ( Calais et al. , 2022 ; Douilly et al. , 2022 ), and a recent study reconsidering the 1860 sequence ( Martin et al. , 2022 ) further underscored the complexity of fault systems and large earthquake ruptures along the peninsula. Motivated by these studies and recent geological investigations ( Prentice et al. , 2010 ; Saint Fleur et al. , 2020 ), we reconsider the 3 June 1770 Haiti earthquake to explore the conventional assumption that it was the last major ( M ≥7.5) earthquake along the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden fault (EPGF). Accounts provide compelling evidence for substantial liquefaction in the Cul‐de‐Sac plain, one or more likely landslide‐driven tsunami in Gonaïves Bay, and extensive landsliding that created at least three documented landslide dams. We consider three end‐member rupture scenarios that are consistent with available constraints: two scenarios with M 7.7 and rupture lengths of 150–170 km, and one scenario with a ∼90 km rupture and M 7.5. Absent future work to identify and date paleoevents along the southern peninsula, none of these scenarios can be ruled out. Our preferred rupture model extends from the Miragoâne pull‐apart to near la Selle mountain, with a rupture length of 127 km, M 7.6, and a high stress drop. Rupture could have been on the EPGF or on an oblique thrust fault associated with overthrusting of the Massif de la Selle. The results do support the conclusion that the 1770 earthquake was the last major earthquake in southern Haiti, with a magnitude upward of M 7.5 and significantly more severe shaking in southern Haiti than during the 2010 earthquake.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2002

Investigation of an earthquake swarm near Trinidad, Colorado, August-October 2001

A swarm of 12 widely felt earthquakes occurred between August 28 and September 21, 2001, in the area west of the town of Trinidad, Colorado. The earthquakes ranged in magnitude between 2.8 and 4.6, and the largest event occurred on September 5, eight days after the initial M 3.4 event. The nearest permanent seismograph station to the swarm is about 290 km away, resulting in large uncertainties in the location and depth of these events. To better locate and characterize the earthquakes in this swarm, we deployed a total of 12 portable seismographs in the area of the swarm starting on September 6. Here we report on data from this portable network that was recorded between September 7 and October 15. During this time period, we have high-quality data from 39 earthquakes. The hypocenters of these earthquakes cluster to define a 6 km long northeast-trending fault plane that dips steeply (70-80?) to the southeast. The upper bound of well-constrained hypocenters is near 3 km depth and lower bound is near 6 km depth. Preliminary fault mechanisms suggest normal faulting with movement down to the southeast. Significant historical earthquakes have occurred in the Trinidad region in 1966 and 1973. Reexamination of felt reports from these earthquakes suggest that the 1973 events may have occurred in the same area, and possibly on the same fault, as the 2001 swarm. In recent years, a large volume of excess water that is produced in conjunction with coal-bed methane gas production has been returned to the subsurface in fluid disposal wells in the area of the earthquake swarm. Because of the proximity of these disposal wells to the earthquakes, local residents and officials are concerned that the fluid disposal might have triggered the earthquakes. We have evaluated the characteristics of the seismicity using criteria proposed by Davis and Frohlich (1993) as diagnostic of seismicity induced by fluid injection. We conclude that the characteristics of the seismicity and the fluid disposal process do not constitute strong evidence that the seismicity is induced by the fluid disposal, though they do not rule out this possibility.

Colorado↗