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Seismicity rate changes along the central California coast due to stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes

We investigated the relationship between seismicity rate changes and modeled Coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes in central California. Coulomb stress modeling indicates that the San Simeon mainshock loaded parts of the Rinconada, Hosgri, and San Andreas strike-slip faults, along with the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain. All of these loaded faults, except for the San Andreas, experienced a seismicity rate increase at the time of the San Simeon mainshock. The Parkfield earthquake occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the San Andreas fault. The Parkfield earthquake unloaded the Hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain, which both experienced seismicity rate decreases at the time of the Parkfield event, although the decreases may be related to the decay of San Simeon-triggered seismicity. Coulomb stress unloading from the Parkfield earthquake appears to have altered the aftershock decay rate of the southern cluster of San Simeon after-shocks, which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the Omori decay parameters based on the pre-Parkfield aftershocks. Dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks, providing evidence that static stress changes affect earthquake occurrence. However, a burst of seismicity following the Parkfield earthquake at Ragged Point, where the static stress was decreased, provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering. It therefore appears that both Coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity rate.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Geodetically inferred coseismic and postseismic slip due to the M 5.4 31 October 2007 Alum Rock earthquake

On 31 October 2007 the M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake occurred near the junction between the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay Area, producing coseismic and postseismic displacements recorded by 10 continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments. The cumulative postseismic displacements over the four months following the earthquake are linearly related to the cumulative number of aftershocks and are comparable in magnitude to the coseis mic displacements. The postseismic signal suggests that, in addition to afterslip at seismogenic depths, localized right-lateral/reverse slip occurred on dipping shallow fault surfaces southwest of the Calaveras. The spatial distribution of slip inferred by inverting the GPS data is compatible with a model in which moderate Calaveras fault earthquakes rupture locked patches surrounded by areas of creep, afterslip, and microseismicity (Oppenheimer et al., 1990). If this model and existing Calaveras fault slip rate estimates are correct, a slip deficit remains on the 2007 Alum Rock rupture patch that may be made up by aseismic slip or slip in larger earthquakes. Recent studies (e.g., Manaker et al., 2005) suggest that at depth the Hayward and central Calaveras faults connect via a simple continuous surface illuminated by the Mission Seismic Trend (MST), implying that a damaging earthquake rupture could involve both faults (Graymer et al., 2008). If this geometry is correct, the combined coseismic and postseismic slip we infer for the 2007 Alum Rock event predicts static Coulomb stress increases of ???0:6 bar on the MST surface and on the northern Calaveras fault ???5 km northwest of the Alum Rock hypocenter.

California↗

Tectonic setting of the Wooded Island earthquake swarm, eastern Washington

Magnetic anomalies provide insights into the tectonic implications of a swarm of ~1500 shallow (~1 km deep) earthquakes that occurred in 2009 on the Hanford site,Washington. Epicenters were concentrated in a 2 km2 area nearWooded Island in the Columbia River. The largest earthquake (M 3.0) had first motions consistent with slip on a northwest-striking reverse fault. The swarm was accompanied by 35 mm of vertical surface deformation, seen in satellite interferometry (InSAR), interpreted to be caused by ~50 mm of slip on a northwest-striking reverse fault and associated bedding-plane fault in the underlying Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). A magnetic anomaly over exposed CRBG at Yakima Ridge 40 km northwest of Wooded Island extends southeastward beyond the ridge to the Columbia River, suggesting that the Yakima Ridge anticline and its associated thrust fault extend southeastward in the subsurface. In map view, the concealed anticline passes through the earthquake swarm and lies parallel to reverse faults determined from first motions and InSAR data. A forward model of the magnetic anomaly near Wooded Island is consistent with uplift of concealed CRBG, with the top surface <200 m below the surface. The earthquake swarm and the thrust and bedding-plane faults modeled from interferometry all fall within the northeastern limb of the faulted anticline. Although fluids may be responsible for triggering the Wooded Island earthquake swarm, the seismic and aseismic deformation are consistent with regional-scale tectonic compression across the concealed Yakima Ridge anticline.

Washington↗

High‐resolution surface deformation and slip distribution observations for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence help constrain the rupture process

Splay, or branch, faults are a common geometric feature of earthquake surface ruptures and may provide constraints on the rupture behavior of an earthquake. The 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık and M w 7.5 Elbistan, Türkiye, earthquakes are examples of ruptures with multiple small splays, and the Pazarcık earthquake nucleated on a splay fault, the Narlı fault, before rupturing bilaterally on the East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present 3‐m‐resolution surface displacement from subpixel correlation of Planet Dove optical images for the entirety of both ruptures with corresponding surface slip distributions. For a 30‐km‐long study region spanning the Narlı‐EAF intersection, we compare surface slip derived from five data sets with different resolutions (on‐the‐ground, WorldView, Planet Dove, Sentinel‐2, and Sentinel‐1) to elucidate complementary information. In addition, we integrate information from the surface expression of faulting with published dynamic rupture simulations and rupture process studies to constrain a rupture evolution for the Pazarcık earthquake that is consistent across data sets. This work highlights the complementary nature of disparate surface slip data sets and the role that high‐resolution surface displacement information, including from fault splays, can play in constraining nonunique rupture models and refining understanding of the earthquake rupture process.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Analysis and selection of magnitude relations for the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities

Prior to calculating time-independent and -dependent earthquake probabilities for faults in the Wasatch Front region, the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities (WGUEP) updated a seismic-source model for the region (Wong and others, 2014) and evaluated 19 historical regressions on earthquake magnitude (M). These regressions relate M to fault parameters for historical surface-faulting earthquakes, including linear fault length (e.g., surface-rupture length [SRL] or segment length), average displacement, maximum displacement, rupture area, seismic moment (Mo ), and slip rate. These regressions show that significant epistemic uncertainties complicate the determination of characteristic magnitude for fault sources in the Basin and Range Province (BRP). For example, we found that M estimates (as a function of SRL) span about 0.3–0.4 units (figure 1) owing to differences in the fault parameter used; age, quality, and size of historical earthquake databases; and fault type and region considered.

Conference Paper↗

Poroelastic rebound along the Landers 1992 earthquake surface rupture

Maps of surface displacement following the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake, generated by interferometric processing of ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, reveal effects of various postseismic deformation processes along the 1992 surface rupture. The large-scale pattern of the postseismic displacement field includes large lobes, mostly visible on the west side of the fault, comparable in shape with the lobes observed in the coseismic displacement field. This pattern and the steep displacement gradient observed near the Emerson-Camp Rock fault cannot be simply explained by afterslip on deep sections of the 1992 rupture. Models show that horizontal slip occurring on a buried dislocation in a Poisson's material produces a characteristic quadripole pattern in the surface displacement field with several centimeters of vertical motion at distances of 10–20 km from the fault, yet this pattern is not observed in the postseismic interferograms. As previously proposed to explain local strain in the fault step overs [ Peltzer et al ., 1996b], we argue that poroelastic rebound caused by pore fluid flow may also occur over greater distances from the fault, compensating the vertical ground shift produced by fault afterslip. Such a rebound is explained by the gradual change of the crustal rocks' Poisson's ratio value from undrained (coseismic) to drained (postseismic) conditions as pore pressure gradients produced by the earthquake dissipate. Using the Poisson's ratio values of 0.27 and 0.31 for the drained and undrained crustal rocks, respectively, elastic dislocation models show that the combined contributions of afterslip on deep sections of the fault and poroelastic rebound can account for the range change observed in the SAR data and the horizontal displacement measured at Global Positioning System (GPS) sites along a 60-km-long transect across the Emerson fault [ Savage and Svarc , 1997]. Using a detailed surface slip distribution on the Homestead Valley, Kickapoo, and Johnson Valley faults, we modeled the poroelastic rebound in the Homestead Valley pull apart. A Poisson's ratio value of 0.35 for the undrained gouge rocks in the fault zone is required to account for the observed surface uplift in the 3.5 years following the earthquake. This large value implies a seismic velocity ratio V p /V s of 2.1, consistent with the observed low V s values of fault zone guided waves at shallow depth [ Li et al ., 1997]. The SAR data also reveal postseismic creep along shallow patches of the Eureka Peak and Burnt Mountain faults with a characteristic decay time of 0.8 years. Coseismic, dilatant hardening (locking process) followed by post-seismic, pore pressure controlled fault creep provide a plausible mechanism to account for the decay time of the observed slip rate along this section of the fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Late Quaternary slip on the Santa Cruz Island fault, California

The style, timing, and pattern of slip on the Santa Cruz Island fault were investigated by trenching the fault and by analysis of offset late Quaternary landforms. A trench excavated across the fault at Christi Beach, on the western coast of the island, exposed deformation of latest Pleistocene to Holocene sediments and pre-Quaternary rocks, recording repeated large-magnitude rupture events. The most recent earthquake at this site occurred ca. 5 ka. Coastal terraces preserved on western Santa Cruz Island have been dated using the uranium-series technique and by extrapolation using terrace elevations and the eustatic record. Offset of terraces and other landforms indicates that the Santa Cruz Island fault is predominantly left lateral, having a horizontal slip rate of not more than 1.1 mm/yr and probably about 0.8 mm/yr. The fault also has a smaller reverse component, slipping at a rate of between 0.1 and 0.2 mm/yr. Combined with measurements of slip per event, this information suggests a long-term average recurrence interval of at least 2.7 k.y. and probably 4–5 k.y., and average earthquake magnitudes of Mw 7.2–7.5. Sense of slip, recurrence interval, and earthquake magnitudes calculated here for the Santa Cruz Island fault are very similar to recent results for other faults along the southern margin of the western Transverse Range, including the Malibu Coast fault, the Santa Monica fault, the Hollywood fault, and the Raymond fault, supporting the contention that these faults constitute a continuous and linked fault system, which is characterized by large but relatively infrequent earthquakes.

California↗

Geologic map and structure sections along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and adjacent areas from Cache Creek to Lake Berryessa, northern Coast Ranges, California

Introduction Located in the Coast Ranges of northern California, the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is the easternmost fault in the San Andreas Fault system in northern California. The fault is a right-lateral, strike-slip structure considered capable of producing an earthquake of moment magnitude 7. The purpose of this mapping is to better characterize the geology and earthquake hazards associated with the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and to help identify any evidence of active uplift on the faults bounding the Coast Ranges. Although the area immediately surrounding the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is sparsely populated, its southern segment presents a potential seismic hazard to northern California communities as far away as the San Francisco Bay region and Sacramento. There are also nearby water resources, mineral resources, and public lands used for public recreation. The Coast Ranges of northern California are a series of northwest-southeast-oriented mountain ranges and valleys located north of the San Francisco Bay region, between the Pacific Ocean to the west and the Sacramento Valley to the east. The region has rugged terrain, high mountain peaks that reach more than 2,400 meters above sea level, isolated and narrow valley bottoms on which most human settlements are located, and large drainage systems that tend to follow the northwest-southeast-oriented topographic grain. The physiographic character of the region is shaped by its bedrock geology, deformational history, and active faulting. The basement rocks of the northern Coast Ranges consist of the Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex, the latter of which consists of two informal units, the Coast Range ophiolite and the Great Valley sequence. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are in structural contact along the Coast Range Fault, a regional-scale structure and fundamental crustal boundary. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are superposed by active, northwest-southeast-striking strike-slip faults that are associated with seismicity swarms. These active strike-slip faults can produce moderate to large earthquakes that have moment magnitudes of 7–8. In places, these active structures bound large ranges and valleys, suggesting that much of the modern topographic expression is the result of active deformation processes. This report contains new 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone between Clear Lake and Lake Berryessa. The map area spans 738 square kilometers in northern Napa County, southern Lake County, and parts of Yolo and Colusa Counties. The south and east borders of the map are 90 kilometers north of San Francisco and 70 kilometers west of Sacramento, respectively. The map area is within the Knoxville mining district, which has a history of mercury and gold mining dating back to the mid-19th century. The two main towns in the region, Lower Lake and Clearlake, California, are west-northwest of the map area. Approximately 71,000 people live in the cities and rural communities located within a 40-kilometer radius of the center of the map area. The bedrock geology, cross sections, and structural data presented herein are critical for evaluating the long-term evolution of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone. This work will supplement studies on local seismic hazards, liquefaction potential, landslide hazards, earthquake geology, natural resources, groundwater resources, engineering geology, and tectonic history by providing the background information for site-specific investigations on these subjects.

California↗

Neogene contraction between the San Andreas fault and the Santa Clara Valley, San Francisco Bay region, California

In the southern San Francisco Bay region of California, oblique dextral reverse faults that verge northeastward from the San Andreas fault experienced triggered slip during the 1989 M7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. The role of these range-front thrusts in the evolution of the San Andreas fault system and the future seismic hazard that they may pose to the urban Santa Clara Valley are poorly understood. Based on recent geologic mapping and geophysical investigations, we propose that the range-front thrust system evolved in conjunction with development of the San Andreas fault system. In the early Miocene, the region was dominated by a system of northwestwardly propagating, basin-bounding, transtensional faults. Beginning as early as middle Miocene time, however, the transtensional faulting was superseded by transpressional NE-stepping thrust and reverse faults of the range-front thrust system. Age constraints on the thrust faults indicate that the locus of contraction has focused on the Monte Vista, Shannon, and Berrocal faults since about 4.8 Ma. Fault slip and fold reconstructions suggest that crustal shortening between the San Andreas fault and the Santa Clara Valley within this time frame is ∼21%, amounting to as much as 3.2 km at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr. Rates probably have not remained constant; average rates appear to have been much lower in the past few 100 ka. The distribution of coseismic surface contraction during the Loma Prieta earthquake, active seismicity, late Pleistocene to Holocene fluvial terrace warping, and geodetic data further suggest that the active range-front thrust system includes blind thrusts. Critical unresolved issues include information on the near-surface locations of buried thrusts, the timing of recent thrust earthquake events, and their recurrence in relation to earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.

California↗

7th U.S. / Japan Natural Resources (UJNR) Panel on Earthquake Research: Abstract volume and technical program

The U.S. / Japan Natural Resources (UJNR) Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced study toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Panel promotes basic and applied research to improve our understanding of the causes and effects of earthquakes and to facilitate the transmission of research results to those who implement hazard reduction measures on both sides of the Pacific and around the world. Meetings are held every other year, and alternate between countries with short presentation on current research and local field trips being the highlights. The 5th Joint Panel meeting was held at Asilomar, California in October, 2004. The technical sessions featured reports on the September 28, 2004 Parkfield, California earthquake, progress on earthquake early warning and rapid post-event assessment technology, probabilistic earthquake forecasting and the newly discovered phenomenon of nonvolcanic tremor. The Panel visited the epicentral region of the M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake and viewed the surface ruptures along the San Andreas Fault. They also visited the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD), which had just completed the first phase of drilling into the fault. The 6th Joint Panel meeting was held in Tokushima, Japan in November, 2006. The meeting included very productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation of earthquake processes. Sixty eight technical papers were presented during the meeting on a wide range of subjects, including interplate earthquakes in subduction zones, slow slip and nonvolcanic tremor, crustal deformation, recent earthquake activity and hazard mapping. Through our discussion, we reaffirmed the benefits of working together to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake hazard, continued cooperation on issues involving densification of observation networks and the open exchange of data among scientific communities. We also reaffirmed the importance of making information public in a timely manner. The Panel visited sites along the east coast of Shikoku that were inundated by the tsunami caused by the 1946 Nankai earthquake where they heard from survivors of the disaster and saw new tsunami shelters and barriers. They also visited the Median Tectonic Line, a major onshore strike-slip fault on Shikoku. The 7th Joint Panel meeting was held in Seattle, Wash., U.S.A. from October 27-30, 2008.

Open-File Report↗

Spatio-temporal mapping of plate boundary faults in California using geodetic imaging

The Pacific–North American plate boundary in California is composed of a 400-km-wide network of faults and zones of distributed deformation. Earthquakes, even large ones, can occur along individual or combinations of faults within the larger plate boundary system. While research often focuses on the primary and secondary faults, holistic study of the plate boundary is required to answer several fundamental questions. How do plate boundary motions partition across California faults? How do faults within the plate boundary interact during earthquakes? What fraction of strain accumulation is relieved aseismically and does this provide limits on fault rupture propagation? Geodetic imaging, broadly defined as measurement of crustal deformation and topography of the Earth’s surface, enables assessment of topographic characteristics and the spatio-temporal behavior of the Earth’s crust. We focus here on crustal deformation observed with continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) data and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA’s airborne UAVSAR platform, and on high-resolution topography acquired from lidar and Structure from Motion (SfM) methods. Combined, these measurements are used to identify active structures, past ruptures, transient motions, and distribution of deformation. The observations inform estimates of the mechanical and geometric properties of faults. We discuss five areas in California as examples of different fault behavior, fault maturity and times within the earthquake cycle: the M6.0 2014 South Napa earthquake rupture, the San Jacinto fault, the creeping and locked Carrizo sections of the San Andreas fault, the Landers rupture in the Eastern California Shear Zone, and the convergence of the Eastern California Shear Zone and San Andreas fault in southern California. These examples indicate that distribution of crustal deformation can be measured using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and high-resolution topography and can improve our understanding of tectonic deformation and rupture characteristics within the broad plate boundary zone.

California↗

Least cost path analysis as an objective and automatic method to define the main fault trace for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses

A main goal of probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) is to quantify displacement along and across an identified active fault that poses a hazard to nearby infrastructure such as roads, bridges, pipelines, and telecommunications. PFDHA relies on empirical models developed using data sets of displacement measurements and mapped surface rupture traces compiled from past global surface rupturing earthquakes by field surveys or remote sensing. However, current approaches to determine the location of the main rupture trace are subjective and lack repeatability due to different geological interpretations of the often complex network of mapped rupture traces. This subjectivity makes it difficult to compile and analyze displacement measurements and ruptures from multiple events in a consistent manner. This study provides an objective and repeatable approach to define a main rupture trace that can be applied to either field or remote sensing data. The new approach defined here can be used in developing rupture trace connectivity and geometry for use in displacement model developments and for use in objectively defining the input fault trace for assessing fault displacement hazard.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Evidence for and implications of self-healing pulses of slip in earthquake rupture

Dislocation time histories of models derived from waveforms of seven earthquakes are discussed. In each model, dislocation rise times (the duration of slip for a given point on the fault) are found to be short compared to the overall duration of the earthquake (??? 10%). However, in many crack-like numerical models of dynamic rupture, the slip duration at a given point is comparable to the overall duration of the rupture; i.e. slip at a given point continues until information is received that the rupture has stopped propagating. Alternative explanations for the discrepancy between the short slip durations used to model waveforms and the long slip durations inferred from dynamic crack models are: (1) the dislocation models are unable to resolve the relatively slow parts of earthquake slip and have seriously underestimated the dislocations for these earthquakes; (2) earthquakes are composed of a sequence of small-dimension (short duration) events that are separated by locked regions (barriers); (3) rupture occurs in a narrow self-healing pulse of slip that travels along the fault surface. Evidence is discussed that suggests that slip durations are indeed short and that the self-healing slip-pulse model is the most appropriate explanation. A qualitative model is presented that produces self-healing slip pulses. The key feature of the model is the assumption that friction on the fault surface is inversely related to the local slip velocity. The model has the following features: high static strength of materials (kilobar range), low static stress drops (in the range of tens of bars), and relatively low frictional stress during slip (less than several hundreds of bars). It is suggested that the reason that the average dislocation scales with fault length is because large-amplitude slip pulses are difficult to stop and hence tend to propagate large distances. This model may explain why seismicity and ambient stress are low along fault segments that have experienced large earthquakes. It also qualitatively explains why the recurrence time for large earthquakes may be irregular. ?? 1990.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗

Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations

A sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates, but should it also revise earthquake probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of recurrence-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the recurrence-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood earthquake history, a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Recurrence of seismic migrations along the central California segment of the San Andreas fault system

VERIFICATIONS of tectonic concepts 1 concerning seafloor spreading are emerging in a manner that has direct bearing on earthquake prediction. Although the gross pattern of worldwide seismicity contributed to the formulation of the plate tectonic hypothesis, it is the space-time characteristics of this seismicity that may contribute more toward understanding the kinematics and dynamics of the driving mechanism long speculated to originate in the mantle. If the lithosphere is composed of plates that move essentially as rigid bodies, then there should be seismic edge effects associated with this movement. It is these interplate effects, especially seismic migration patterns, that we discuss here. The unidirectional propagation at constant velocity (80 km yr −1 east to west) for earthquakes ( M ≥7.2) on the Antblian fault for the period 1939 to 1956 (ref. 2) is one of the earliest observations of such a phenomenon. Similar studies 3,4 of the Alaska Aleutian seismic zone and certain regions of the west coast of South America suggest unidirectional and recurring migrations of earthquakes ( M ≥7.7) occur in these areas. Between these two regions along the great transform faults of the west coast of North America, there is some evidence 5 for unidirectional, constant velocity and recurrent migration of great earthquakes. The small population of earthquakes (M>7.2) in Savage's investigation 5 indicates a large spatial gap along the San Andreas system in central California from 1830 to 1970. Previous work on the seismicity of this gap in central California indicates that the recurrence curves remain relatively constant, independent of large earthquakes, for periods up to a century 6 . Recurrence intervals for earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault have been calculated empirically by Wallace 7 on the basis of geological evidence, surface measurements and assumptions restricted to the surficial seismic layer. Here we examine the evidence for recurrence of seismic migrations along the San Andreas fault system of central California for earthquakes of magnitude M ≥5.

California↗

Complex rupture during the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake

Initially, the devastating Mw 7.0, 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone. Here, we combine seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process may have involved slip on multiple faults. Primary surface deformation was driven by rupture on blind thrust faults with only minor, deep, lateral slip along or near the main Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone; thus the event only partially relieved centuries of accumulated left-lateral strain on a small part of the plate-boundary system. Together with the predominance of shallow off-fault thrusting, the lack of surface deformation implies that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone, as occurred in inferred Holocene and probable historic events. We suggest that the geological signature of this earthquakeg-broad warping and coastal deformation rather than surface rupture along the main fault zoneg-will not be easily recognized by standard palaeoseismic studies. We conclude that similarly complex earthquakes in tectonic environments that accommodate both translation and convergenceg-such as the San Andreas fault through the Transverse Ranges of Californiag-may be missing from the prehistoric earthquake record. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗

Postglacial faulting near Crater Lake, Oregon, and its possible association with the Mazama caldera-forming eruption

Volcanoes of subduction-related magmatic arcs occur in a variety of crustal tectonic regimes, including where active faults indicate arc-normal extension. The Cascades arc volcano Mount Mazama overlaps on its west an ∼10-km-wide zone of ∼north-south–trending normal faults. A lidar (light detection and ranging) survey of Crater Lake National Park, reveals several previously unrecognized faults west of the caldera. Postglacial vertical separations measured from profiles across scarps range from ∼2 m to as much as 12 m. Scarp profiles commonly suggest two or more postglacial surface-rupturing events. Ignimbrite of the ca. 7.6 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama, during which Crater Lake caldera formed, appears to bury fault strands where they project into thick, valley-filling ignimbrite. Lack of lateral offset of linear features suggests principally normal displacement, although predominant left stepping of scarp strands implies a component of dextral slip. West-northwest–east-southeast and north-northwest–south-southeast linear topographic elements, such as low scarps or ridges, shallow troughs, and straight reaches of streams, suggest that erosion was influenced by distributed shear, consistent with GPS vectors and clockwise rotation of the Oregon forearc block. Surface rupture lengths (SRL) of faults suggest earthquakes of (moment magnitude) M w 6.5 from empirical scaling relationships. If several faults slipped in one event, a combined SRL of 44 km suggests an earthquake of M w 7.0. Postglacial scarps as high as 12 m imply maximum vertical slip rates of 1.5 mm/yr for the zone west of Crater Lake, considerably higher than the ∼0.3 mm/yr long-term rate for the nearby West Klamath Lake fault zone. An unanswered question is the timing of surface-rupturing earthquakes relative to the Mazama climactic eruption. The eruption may have been preceded by a large earthquake. Alternatively, large surface-rupturing earthquakes may have occurred during the eruption, a result of decrease in east-west compressive stress during ejection of ∼50 km 3 of magma and concurrent caldera collapse.

Oregon↗