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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources

USGS2024

The geometry of fault reactivation and uplift along the central part of the Maacama fault zone, northern California Coast Ranges (USA)

Fault reactivation of bedrock structures in active fault zones influences stress state and earthquake rupture phenomena through the introduction of weak slip surfaces that impact fault zone geometry and width. Yet, geometric relationships between modern faults and older reactivated faults are difficult to quantify in rocks that have experienced multiple deformation episodes. We used new geologic mapping, geomorphic tools, and structural modeling to quantify rock uplift and subsurface fault geometry of the central part of the Maacama Fault Zone near Ukiah, California, USA, and the surrounding area. Results suggest that the northern Mayacamas Mountains are in a tectonically driven disequilibrium, with differential rock uplift focused on the western side of the range. Steeply east-dipping fault surfaces and splays characterize the geometry of the Maacama Fault Zone. We mapped two newly identified faults to the east of the main Maacama Fault, the Cow Mountain–Mill Creek Fault, and Willow Creek Fault, which align with a moderately east-dipping cluster of microseismicity between 4–10 km depth beneath the Mayacamas Mountains. Static stress modeling on the Maacama Fault Zone and newly identified faults to the east quantify slip tendency values of 0.5–0.4, which suggests that the faults are moderately to poorly suited for slip in the modern stress field and may be weak. We infer that modern uplift is driven by oblique reverse, up-to-the-east, dip-slip motion on the reactivated Cenozoic Cow Mountain–Mill Creek and Willow Creek Faults as material is advected through a restraining bend on the Maacama Fault. This study shows that reactivated bedrock faults increase the fault zone width and introduce fault surfaces that contribute a component of vertical deformation and uplift in major strike-slip fault zones. Deformation is accommodated on an interconnected network of new and reactivated faults that delineate a complex seismic hazard.

California↗

USGS2012

Influence of fault trend, bends, and convergence on shallow structure and geomorphology of the Hosgri strike-slip fault, offshore central California

We mapped an &sim;94-km-long portion of the right-lateral Hosgri fault zone in offshore central California using a dense network of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles, marine magnetic data, and multibeam bathymetry. These data document the location, length, and continuity of multiple fault strands, highlight fault-zone heterogeneity, and demonstrate the importance of fault trend, fault bends, and fault convergence in the development of shallow structure and tectonic geomorphology along strike-slip faults. Eight sections (A through H) of the Hosgri fault are mapped. The fault trends &sim;335° to 341° in the southern &sim;40 km of the study area (sections A through C) where shallow deformation is primarily dilational. The absence of tectonic uplift in this area has contributed to localization of the Santa Maria River and delta and, as a result, Holocene sediments cover the fault zone. The Hosgri fault generally trends 329° to 337° in the central &sim;24 km of the study area (sections D through F), which coincides with oblique convergence of the Hosgri and the more northwest-trending Los Osos and Shoreline faults. This convergence has resulted in local restraining and releasing fault bends, transpressive uplifts, and extensional basins of varying size and morphology. Notably, development of a paired fault bend is linked to indenting and bulging of the Hosgri fault by a strong crustal block translated to the northwest along the Shoreline fault. Two diverging Hosgri fault strands bounding a central uplifted block characterize the northern &sim;30 km of the Hosgri fault (sections G and H) in this area. The eastern Hosgri passes through significant releasing (329° to 335°) and restraining (335° to 328°) bends before passing onland at San Simeon; the releasing bend is the primary control on development of an elongate, asymmetric, 15-km-long × 300- to 2400-m-wide, “Lazy Z” sedimentary basin. The western strand of the Hosgri fault passes through a significant restraining bend (329° to 316°) and continues northward until slip is transferred to faults underlying the Piedras Blancas fold belt. Earthquake hazard assessments should incorporate a minimum rupture length of 110 km based on continuity of the Hosgri fault zone through this area. Lateral slip rates may vary along the fault (both to the north and south) as different structures converge and diverge but are probably in the geodetically estimated range of 2–4 mm/yr.

California↗

USGS1993

Precisely locating the Klamath Falls, Oregon, earthquakes

The Klamath Falls earthquakes on September 20, 1993, were the largest earthquakes centered in Oregon in more than 50 yrs. Only the magnitude 5.75 Milton-Freewater earthquake in 1936, which was centered near the Oregon-Washington border and felt in an area of about 190,000 sq km, compares in size with the recent Klamath Falls earthquakes. Although the 1993 earthquakes surprised many local residents, geologists have long recognized that strong earthquakes may occur along potentially active faults that pass through the Klamath Falls area. These faults are geologically related to similar faults in Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada that occasionally spawn strong earthquakes. In this article we present preliminary results of a close-in, instrumental study of the Klamath Falls earthquake sequence, carried as a cooperative effort by scientists from the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) and universities in Washington, Orgeon, and California. In addition to obtaining much mroe accurate earthquake locations, this study has improved our understanding of the relationship between seismicity and mapped faults in the region.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Observations of static Coulomb stress triggering of the November 2011 M5.7 Oklahoma earthquake sequence

In November 2011, a M 5.0 earthquake occurred less than a day before a M 5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma, which may have promoted failure of the mainshock and thousands of aftershocks along the Wilzetta fault, including a M 5.0 aftershock. The M 5.0 foreshock occurred in close proximity to active fluid injection wells; fluid injection can cause a buildup of pore fluid pressure, decrease the fault strength, and may induce earthquakes. Keranen et al . [ 2013 ] links the M 5.0 foreshock with fluid injection, but the relationship between the foreshock and successive events has not been investigated. Here we examine the role of coseismic Coulomb stress transfer on earthquakes that follow the M 5.0 foreshock, including the M 5.7 mainshock. We resolve the static Coulomb stress change onto the focal mechanism nodal plane that is most consistent with the rupture geometry of the three M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, as well as specified receiver fault planes that reflect the regional stress orientation. We find that Coulomb stress is increased, e.g., fault failure is promoted, on the nodal planes of ~60% of the events that have focal mechanism solutions, and more specifically, that the M 5.0 foreshock promoted failure on the rupture plane of the M 5.7 mainshock. We test our results over a range of effective coefficient of friction values. Hence, we argue that the M 5.0 foreshock, induced by fluid injection, potentially triggered a cascading failure of earthquakes along the complex Wilzetta fault system.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

Relationships among seismic velocity, metamorphism, and seismic and aseismic fault slip in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field region

The Salton Sea Geothermal Field is one of the most geothermally and seismically active areas in California and presents an opportunity to study the effect of high-temperature metamorphism on the properties of seismogenic faults. The area includes numerous active tectonic faults that have recently been imaged with active source seismic reflection and refraction. We utilize the active source surveys, along with the abundant microseismicity data from a dense borehole seismic network, to image the 3-D variations in seismic velocity in the upper 5 km of the crust. There are strong velocity variations, up to ~30%, that correlate spatially with the distribution of shallow heat flow patterns. The combination of hydrothermal circulation and high-temperature contact metamorphism has significantly altered the shallow sandstone sedimentary layers within the geothermal field to denser, more feldspathic, rock with higher P wave velocity, as is seen in the numerous exploration wells within the field. This alteration appears to have a first-order effect on the frictional stability of shallow faults. In 2005, a large earthquake swarm and deformation event occurred. Analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar data and earthquake relocations indicates that the shallow aseismic fault creep that occurred in 2005 was localized on the Kalin fault system that lies just outside the region of high-temperature metamorphism. In contrast, the earthquake swarm, which includes all of the M > 4 earthquakes to have occurred within the Salton Sea Geothermal Field in the last 15 years, ruptured the Main Central Fault (MCF) system that is localized in the heart of the geothermal anomaly. The background microseismicity induced by the geothermal operations is also concentrated in the high-temperature regions in the vicinity of operational wells. However, while this microseismicity occurs over a few kilometer scale region, much of it is clustered in earthquake swarms that last from hours to a few days and are localized near the MCF system.

Salton Sea↗

USGS1988

Forecast model for great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone

An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido earthquake. In model simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗

USGS1987

Modelling aftershock migration and afterslip of the San Juan Bautista, California, earthquake of October 3, 1972

The San Juan Bautista earthquake of October 3, 1972 ( M L = 4.8), located along the San Andreas fault in central California, initiated an aftershock sequence characterized by a subtle, but perceptible, tendency for aftershocks to spread to the northwest and southeast along the fault zone. The apparent dimension of the aftershock zone along strike increased from about 7–10 km within a few days of the earthquake, to about 20 km eight months later. In addition, the mainshock initiated a period of accelerated fault creep, which was observed at 2 creep meters situated astride the trace of the San Andreas fault within about 15 km of the epicenter of the mainshock. The creep rate gradually returned to the preearthquake rate after about 3 yrs. Both the spreading of the aftershocks and the rapid surface creep are interpreted as reflecting a period of rapid creep in the fault zone representing the readjustment of stress and displacement following the failure of a “stuck” patch or asperity during the San Juan Bautista earthquake. Numerical calculations suggest that the behavior of the fault zone is consistent with that of a material characterized by a viscosity of about 3.6×10 14 P, although the real rheology is likely to be more complicated. In this model, the mainshock represents the failure of an asperity that slips only during earthquakes. Aftershocks represent the failure of second-order asperities which are dragged along by the creeping fault zone.

California↗

USGS2010

Coherence of Mach fronts during heterogeneous supershear earthquake rupture propagation: Simulations and comparison with observations

We study how heterogeneous rupture propagation affects the coherence of shear and Rayleigh Mach wavefronts radiated by supershear earthquakes. We address this question using numerical simulations of ruptures on a planar, vertical strike-slip fault embedded in a three-dimensional, homogeneous, linear elastic half-space. Ruptures propagate spontaneously in accordance with a linear slip-weakening friction law through both homogeneous and heterogeneous initial shear stress fields. In the 3-D homogeneous case, rupture fronts are curved owing to interactions with the free surface and the finite fault width; however, this curvature does not greatly diminish the coherence of Mach fronts relative to cases in which the rupture front is constrained to be straight, as studied by Dunham and Bhat (2008a). Introducing heterogeneity in the initial shear stress distribution causes ruptures to propagate at speeds that locally fluctuate above and below the shear wave speed. Calculations of the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of ground velocity time histories corroborate the kinematic results of Bizzarri and Spudich (2008a): (1) The ground motion of a supershear rupture is richer in high frequency with respect to a subshear one. (2) When a Mach pulse is present, its high frequency content overwhelms that arising from stress heterogeneity. Present numerical experiments indicate that a Mach pulse causes approximately an ω −1.7 high frequency falloff in the FAS of ground displacement. Moreover, within the context of the employed representation of heterogeneities and over the range of parameter space that is accessible with current computational resources, our simulations suggest that while heterogeneities reduce peak ground velocity and diminish the coherence of the Mach fronts, ground motion at stations experiencing Mach pulses should be richer in high frequencies compared to stations without Mach pulses. In contrast to the foregoing theoretical results, we find no average elevation of 5%-damped absolute response spectral accelerations (SA) in the period band 0.05–0.4 s observed at stations that presumably experienced Mach pulses during the 1979 Imperial Valley, 1999 Kocaeli, and 2002 Denali Fault earthquakes compared to SA observed at non-Mach pulse stations in the same earthquakes. A 20% amplification of short period SA is seen only at a few of the Imperial Valley stations closest to the fault. This lack of elevated SA suggests that either Mach pulses in real earthquakes are even more incoherent that in our simulations or that Mach pulses are vulnerable to attenuation through nonlinear soil response. In any case, this result might imply that current engineering models of high frequency earthquake ground motions do not need to be modified by more than 20% close to the fault to account for Mach pulses, provided that the existing data are adequately representative of ground motions from supershear earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2010

The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California

Since 1985, a focused earthquake prediction experiment has been in progress along the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California. Parkfield has experienced six moderate earthquakes since 1857 at average intervals of 22 years, the most recent a magnitude 6 event in 1966. The probability of another moderate earthquake soon appears high, but studies assigning it a 95% chance of occurring before 1993 now appear to have been over-simplified. The identification of a Parkfield fault “segment” was initially based on geometric features in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault, but more recent microearthquake studies have demonstrated that those features do not extend to seismogenic depths. On the other hand, geodetic measurements are consistent with the existence of a “locked” patch on the fault beneath Parkfield that has presently accumulated a slip deficit equal to the slip in the 1966 earthquake. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake in October 1992 brought the Parkfield experiment to its highest level of alert, with a 72-hour public warning that there was a 37% chance of a magnitude 6 event. However, this warning proved to be a false alarm. Most data collected at Parkfield indicate that strain is accumulating at a constant rate on this part of the San Andreas fault, but some interesting departures from this behavior have been recorded. Here we outline the scientific arguments bearing on when the next Parkfield earthquake is likely to occur and summarize geophysical observations to date.

California↗

USGS1996

The July 12, 1993, Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki, Japan, earthquake: Coseismic slip pattern from strong-motion and teleseismic recordings

We employ a finite fault inversion scheme to infer the distribution of coseismic slip for the July 12, 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake using strong ground motions recorded by the Japan Meteorological Agency within 400 km of the epicenter and vertical P waveforms recorded by the Global Digital Seismograph Network at teleseismic distances. The assumed fault geometry is based on the location of the aftershock zone and comprises two fault segments with different orientations: a northern segment striking at N20°E with a 30° dip to the west and a southern segment with an N20°W strike. For the southern segment we use both westerly and easterly dip directions to test thrust orientations previously proposed for this portion of the fault. The variance reduction is greater using a shallow west dipping segment, suggesting that the direction of dip did not change as the rupture propagated south from the hypocenter. This indicates that the earthquake resulted from the shallow underthrusting of Hokkaido beneath the Sea of Japan. Static vertical movements predicted by the corresponding distribution of fault slip are consistent with the general pattern of surface deformation observed following the earthquake. Fault rupture in the northern segment accounts for about 60% of the total P wave seismic moment of 3.4 × 10 20 N m and includes a large circular slip zone (4-m peak) near the earthquake hypocenter at depths between 10 and 25 km. Slip in the southern segment is also predominantly shallower than 25 km, but the maximum coseismic displacements (2.0–2.5 m) are observed at a depth of about 5 km. This significant shallow slip in the southern portion of the rupture zone may have been responsible for the large tsunami that devastated the small offshore island of Okushiri. Localized shallow faulting near the island, however, may require a steep westerly dip to reconcile the measured values of ground subsidence.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Historic surface slip along the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California

The Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment is focusing close attention on the 44-km-long section of the San Andreas fault that last ruptured seismically in 1966 ( M s 6.0). The 20-km-long central segment of the 1966 Parkfield rupture, extending from the mainshock epicenter at Middle Mountain southeastward to Gold Hill, forms a 1- to 2-km salient northeastward away from the dominant N40°W strike. Following the 1966 earthquake afterslip, aseismic slip has been nearly constant. Moderate Parkfield earthquakes have recurred on average every 21 years since 1857, when a great earthquake ( M ≈8) ruptured at least as far north as the southern Parkfield segment. Many measurements of slip have been made near Parkfield since 1966. Nevertheless, much of the history of surface slip remained uncertain, especially the total amount associated with the 1966 event. In 1985 we measured accumulated slip on the four oldest cultural features offset by the fault along the 1966 Parkfield rupture segment. We interpret net slip on each feature as a sum of event slip (sum of coseismic and rapid preseismic and postseismic slip) from Parkfield earthquakes and steady interseismic slip as measured over the last 20 years on nearby alinement arrays, creep meters, and trilateration lines. We assumed for each site that event slip was identical for the 1922, 1934, and 1966 Parkfield events and that long-term average rate of interseismic slip was constant between all events. Two fences on the southern segment, southeast of Gold Hill, indicate event slip of 13 and 15 cm and interseismic slip rate of 0.36 and 0.30 cm/yr since 1959 and 1908, respectively. At these sites, redundant independent data support our assumption that both event and interseismic slip occur uniformly. On the central segment, near Parkfield, both the 1934 and the 1966 ruptures offset a bridge built in 1932. Interseismic slip rate near the bridge has been about 1.1 cm/yr since 1966; thus we deduce an average event slip of 31 cm for the 1934 and 1966 earthquakes. On a parallel fault trace, 1 km to the southwest, slip was about 8 cm in 1966; thus total event slip summed across the entire fault zone near Parkfield was nearly 40 cm. On Middle Mountain, 4 km north of the 1966 mainshock epicenter, an offset fence indicates 17 cm of slip in 1966 and a 2.26-cm/yr interseismic slip rate since circa 1946. Thus the central segment of the 1966 rupture is characterized by much larger event slip (∼40 cm) than both distal segments (∼15 cm). This amount of surface slip per event is about twice what had been previously assumed. Larger 1966 surface slip in the central part of the rupture is geodetically compatible with a coseismic slip of 65±10 cm slip on a narrow, buried asperity between Middle Mountain and Gold Hill that has been inferred from the depth distribution of early aftershocks. Assuming our characteristic surface slip model, one can further deduce a deficit in slip since the great 1857 earthquake. Taking the long-term slip rate as 3.3 cm/yr, the surface slip deficit is 3±0.2 m south of Gold Hill but only 0.3±0.3 m northward from Parkfield.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1994

The magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994

The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.

Los Angeles↗

USGS2009

Palaeoseismology of the Vilariça segment of the Manteigas-Bragança fault in northeastern Portugal

The Manteigas-Bragança fault is a major, 250-km-long, NNE-striking, sinistral strike-slip structure in northern Portugal. This fault has no historical seismicity for large earthquakes, although it may have generated moderate (M5+) earthquakes in 1751 and 1858. Evidence of continued left horizontal displacement is shown by the presence of Cenozoic pull-apart basins as well as late Quaternary stream deflections. To investigate its recent slip history, a number of trenches were excavated at three sites along the Vilariça segment, north and south of the Douro River. At one site at Vale Meão winery, the occurrence of at least two and probably three events in the past 14.5 ka was determined, suggesting an average return period of about 5–7 ka. All three events appear to have occurred as a cluster in the interval between 14.5 and 11 ka, or shortly thereafter, suggesting a return period of less than 2 ka between events within the cluster. In the same area, a small offset rill suggests 2–2.5 m of slip in the most recent event and about 6.1 m after incision below a c . 16 ka alluvial fill event along the Douro River. At another site along the Vilariça River alluvial plain, NE of the Vale Meão site, several trenches were excavated in late Pleistocene and Holocene alluvium, and exposed the fault displacing channel deposits dated to between 18 and 23 ka. In a succession of closely spaced parallel cuts and trenches, the channel riser was traced into and across the fault to resolve c . 6.5 m of displacement after 18 ka and c . 9 m of slip after c . 23 ka. These observations yield a slip rate of 0.3–0.5 mm/a, which is consistent with earlier estimates. Combining the information on timing at Vale Meão winery and displacement at Vilariça argues for earthquakes in the M7+ range, with coseismic displacements of 2–3 m. This demonstrates that there are potential seismic sources in Portugal that are not associated with the 1755 Lisbon earthquake or the Tagus Valley, and, although rare, large events on the Vilariça fault could be quite destructive for the region. This work provides an analogue for the study of active faulting in intracontinental settings and supports the view that earthquakes within intracontinental settings tend to cluster in time. In addition, this study highlights the usefulness and application of multiple field, remote sensing and geochronological techniques for seismic hazard mitigation.

Manteigas - Braganca fault↗

USGS2003

Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley and an M ???5.0 event under or near Santa Monica Bay, 11.3 and 31.3 hr after the San Francisco mainshock, respectively. The western Arizona event is inferred to have been triggered dynamically. In general, the largest aftershocks occurred at the ends of the 1906 rupture or away from the rupture entirely; very few significant aftershocks occurred along the mainshock rupture itself. The total number of large aftershocks was less than predicted by a generic model based on typical California mainshock-aftershock statistics, and the 1906 sequence appears to have decayed more slowly than average California sequences. Similarities can be drawn between the 1906 aftershock sequence and that of the 1857 (Mw 7.9) San Andreas fault earthquake.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

A Viscoelastic earthquake simulator with application to the San Francisco Bay region

Earthquake simulation on synthetic fault networks carries great potential for characterizing the statistical patterns of earthquake occurrence. I present an earthquake simulator based on elastic dislocation theory. It accounts for the effects of interseismic tectonic loading, static stress steps at the time of earthquakes, and postearthquake stress readjustment through viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle. Earthquake rupture initiation and termination are determined with a Coulomb failure stress criterion and the static cascade model. The simulator is applied to interacting multifault systems: one, a synthetic two-fault network, and the other, a fault network representative of the San Francisco Bay region. The faults are discretized both along strike and along dip and can accommodate both strike slip and dip slip. Stress and seismicity functions are evaluated over 30,000 yr trial time periods, resulting in a detailed statistical characterization of the fault systems. Seismicity functions such as the coefficient of variation and a- and b-values exhibit systematic patterns with respect to simple model parameters. This suggests that reliable estimation of the controlling parameters of an earthquake simulator is a prerequisite to the interpretation of its output in terms of seismic hazard.

California↗

USGS2021

Late Holocene slip rate of the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, California

The geologic slip rate on the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault is poorly constrained, despite its importance for understanding earthquake hazard, apparent discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates along this fault section, and long‐term fault interactions in southern California. Here, we use surficial geologic mapping, excavations, and radiocarbon and luminescence dating to quantify the displacements and ages of late Holocene landforms offset by the fault at three sites. At the Ranch Center site, the slip rate is determined using the base of a fan marking incision and deflection of an ephemeral channel. At the adjacent Key Slide site, the margin of a landslide deposited on indigenous fire hearths provides a minimum rate. At the X‐12 site, the slip rate is determined from a channel that incised into a broad fan surface, and is deflected and beheaded by the fault. We use maximum–minimum bounds on both the displacement and age of each offset feature to calculate slip rate for each site independently. Overlap of the three independent rate ranges yields a rate of 33–39 mm/yr over the last 3 ka, under the assumption that the sites share a common history, given their proximity. Considered in sequence, site‐level epistemic uncertainties in the data permit but do not require a rate increase since ∼1200 cal B.P. Modest rate changes can be explained by aleatory variability in earthquake timing and magnitude; larger changes could suggest a shared regional variation with the Garlock and other faults. The new late Holocene slip rates are consistent with geodetic model estimates that include a viscoelastic crust and earthquake cycle effects. The geologic slip rates also provide average slip over dozens of earthquake cycles—a key constraint for long‐term earthquake rupture forecasts.

California↗

USGS2000

Data for Quaternary faults, liquefaction features, and possible tectonic features in the Central and Eastern United States, east of the Rocky Mountain Front

The USGS is currently leading an effort to compile published geological information on Quaternary faults, folds, and earthquake-induced liquefaction in order to develop an internally consistent database on the locations, ages, and activity rates of major earthquake-related features throughout the United States. This report is the compilation for such features in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), which for the purposes of the compilation, is defined as the region extending from the Rocky Mountain Front eastward to the Atlantic seaboard. A key objective of this national compilation is to provide a comprehensive database of Quaternary features that might generate strong ground motion and therefore, should be considered in assessing the seismic hazard throughout the country. In addition to printed versions of regional and individual state compilations, the database will be available on the World-Wide Web, where it will be readily available to everyone. The primary purpose of these compilations and the derivative database is to provide a comprehensive, uniform source of geological information that can by used to complement the other types of data that are used in seismic-hazard assessments. Within our CEUS study area, which encompasses more than 60 percent of the continuous U.S., we summarize the geological information on 69 features that are categorized into four classes (Class A, B, C, and D) based on what is known about the feature's Quaternary activity. The CEUS contains only 13 features of tectonic origin for which there is convincing evidence of Quaternary activity (Class A features). Of the remaining 56 features, 11 require further study in order to confidently define their potential as possible sources of earthquake-induced ground motion (Class B), whereas the remaining features either lack convincing geologic evidence of Quaternary tectonic faulting or have been studied carefully enough to determine that they do not pose a significant seismic hazard (Classes C and D). The correlation between historical seismicity and Quaternary faults and liquefaction features in the CEUS is generally poor, which probably reflects the long return times between successive movements on individual structures. Some Quaternary faults and liquefaction features are located in aseismic areas or where historical seismicity is sparse. These relations indicate that the record of historical seismicity does not identify all potential seismic sources in the CEUS. Furthermore, geological studies of some currently aseismic faults have shown that the faults have generated strong earthquakes in the geologically recent past. Thus, the combination of geological information and seismological data can provide better insight into potential earthquake sources and thereby, contribute to better, more comprehensive seismic-hazard assessments.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2002

Control of strong ground motion of mining-induced earthquakes by the strength of the seismogenic rock mass

The shear stress ?? that can be sustained by the rock mass in the environs of a mining-induced earthquake controls the near-fault peak ground velocity v of that event according to v???0.25(??/G) ??, where ?? is the shear wave speed and G is the modulus of rigidity. To estimate ?? at mining depths, I review the results of four studies involving Witwatersrand tremors that relate to the bulk shear strength. The first and most general analysis uses the common assumptions that the seismogenic crust is pervasively faulted, has hydrostatic pore pressure before mining, and an extensional stress state that is close to failure. Mining operations reduce the pore pressure to zero within the mine and redistribute the stresses such that, in localized regions, the state of stress is again at the point of failure. Laboratory friction experiments can be used to estimate ?? in the zero-pore-pressure regime. Second, model calculations of states of stress in the vicinity of milling at about 3 km depth indicated the shear stress available to cause faulting near the centre of a distribution of induced earthquakes. Third, laboratory experiments combined with microscopic analyses of fault gouge from the rupture zone of a mining-induced event provided an estimate of the average shear stress acting on the fault to cause this earthquake at a depth of 2 km. Fourth, moment tensors determined for mining- induced earthquakes usually show substantial implosive components, from which it is straightforward to estimate ??. These four different analyses yield estimates of ?? that fall in the range 30 to 61 MPa which implies that near-fault particle velocities could he as high as about 1.5 m/s. To the extent that the causative fault ruptures previously intact rock, both ?? and v, in localized regions, could be several times higher than 61 MPa and 1.5 m/s.

Journal of the South African Institute of Mining a↗