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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Near-fault measurement of postseismic slip associated with the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

Five small-aperture (0.5 to 7.7 m) quadrilaterals were installed across the San Andreas fault and newly formed extensional cracks shortly after the October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta M 7.1 earthquake. Two quadrilaterals were installed across the San Andreas fault near the southeast and northwest ends of the 1989 rupture, and three were installed across dominantly extensional cracks in the Summit Road area near the main-shock epicenter and off the San Andreas fault. Measurements of line-length changes from as early as 4 d up to 184 d after the earthquake in the nail quadrilaterals indicate a small amount of right-lateral postseismic slip on the San Andreas fault. The site near the southeast end of the 1989 afterstock zone on the San Andreas fault showed about 5±2 mm of postseismic right-lateral component of slip in addition to 23 mm of right-lateral coseismic movement. The site near the northwest end of aftershocks likewise showed about 5±2 mm of postseismic slip, but after only 5 mm of coseismic slip. Measurements at sites across extensional cracks indicate possible minor left-lateral postseismic slips, and possible extensional/contractional motion. No measurements were made of possible vertical movements. Sites on extensional cracks showed similarly small amounts of possible postscismic lateral slip, from ∼2 to 10 mm, even though coseismic lateral slips were much greater (up to 410 mm) than on the surface trace of the San Andreas fault. The small slip values, in spite of uncertainties, clearly show that the lack of coseismic surface slip associated with the earthquake was not followed by large postseismic slip.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Nonlinear strain buildup and the earthquake cycle on the San Andreas fault

Two contrasting models of the earthquake deformation cycle on strike slip faults predict significant temporal declines in shear strain rate near the fault, accompanied by a progressive broadening of the zone of deformation adjacent to it. In the thin lithosphere model, transient deformation results from flow in the asthenosphere due to stress relaxation following faulting through most or all of the lithosphere. For an earth model with a thick elastic lithosphere (plate thickness » depth of seismic slip), transient motions are due to postearthquake aseisrnic slip below the coseismic fault plane. Data from the San Andreas fault indicate a long-term temporal decrease in strain rate that persists for at least 30 years and may extend through the entire earthquake cycle. Observations support a cycle-long rate decrease and a temporal spreading of the deformation profile only if movement cycles on the northern and southern locked sections of the fault are basically similar. If so, the usually lower strain rates and broader deformation zone currently observed on the southern San Andreas represent a later evolutionary stage of the northern locked section, where a great earthquake is a more recent occurrence. Although the data allow some extreme models to be discarded, no sufficiently strong constraints exist to decide between the thin and thick lithosphere models. Regardless of the appropriate model the geodetic observations themselves indicate that strain buildup is sufficiently nonlinear to cause significant departures from recurrence estimates based on linear strain accumulation and the time-predictable model.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1997

Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering

10 M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939–1992, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. We use the mapped surface slip and fault geometry to infer the transfer of stress throughout the sequence. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that nine out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 1–10 bar, equivalent to 3–30 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability gains using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. The transient effects of the stress changes dominate during the mean 10 yr period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence. The stress changes result in an average three-fold gain in the net earthquake probability during the decade after each event. Stress is calculated to be high today at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15 per cent probability of a M ≥ 6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern centre of Ercinzan, and a 12 per cent probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2002

Displaced rocks, strong motion, and the mechanics of shallow faulting associated with the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

The paucity of strong-motion stations near the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake makes it impossible to make instrumental studies of key questions about near-fault strong-motion patterns associated with this event. However, observations of displaced rocks allow a qualitative investigation of these problems. By observing the slope of the desert surface and the frictional coefficient between these rocks and the desert surface, we estimate the minimum horizontal acceleration needed to displace the rocks. Combining this information with observations of how many rocks were displaced in different areas near the fault, we infer the level of shaking. Given current empirical shaking attenuation relationships, the number of rocks that moved is slightly lower than expected; this implies that slightly lower than expected shaking occurred during the Hector Mine earthquake. Perhaps more importantly, stretches of the fault with 4 m of total displacement at the surface displaced few nearby rocks on 15?? slopes, suggesting that the horizontal accelerations were below 0.2g within meters of the fault scarp. This low level of shaking suggests that the shallow parts of this rupture did not produce strong accelerations. Finally, we did not observe an increased incidence of displaced rocks along the fault zone itself. This suggests that, despite observations of fault-zone-trapped waves generated by aftershocks of the Hector Mine earthquake, such waves were not an important factor in controlling peak ground acceleration during the mainshock.

California↗

USGS2010

Evidence for a twelfth large earthquake on the southern hayward fault in the past 1900 years

We present age and stratigraphic evidence for an additional paleoearthquake at the Tyson Lagoon site. The acquisition of 19 additional radiocarbon dates and the inclusion of this additional event has resolved a large age discrepancy in our earlier earthquake chronology. The age of event E10 was previously poorly constrained, thus increasing the uncertainty in the mean recurrence interval (RI), a critical factor in seismic hazard evaluation. Reinspection of many trench logs revealed substantial evidence suggesting that an additional earthquake occurred between E10 and E9 within unit u45. Strata in older u45 are faulted in the main fault zone and overlain by scarp colluviums in two locations.We conclude that an additional surfacerupturing event (E9.5) occurred between E9 and E10. Since 91 A.D. (??40 yr, 1??), 11 paleoearthquakes preceded the M 6:8 earthquake in 1868, yielding a mean RI of 161 ?? 65 yr (1??, standard deviation of recurrence intervals). However, the standard error of the mean (SEM) is well determined at ??10 yr. Since ~1300 A.D., the mean rate has increased slightly, but is indistinguishable from the overall rate within the uncertainties. Recurrence for the 12-event sequence seems fairly regular: the coefficient of variation is 0.40, and it yields a 30-yr earthquake probability of 29%. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this earthquake chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast earthquakes, at least for the southern Hayward fault.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Fluid‐driven seismicity response of the Rinconada fault near Paso Robles, California, to the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused significant damage in the city of Paso Robles and a persistent cluster of aftershocks close to Paso Robles near the Rinconada fault. Given the importance of secondary aftershock triggering in sequences of large events, a concern is whether this cluster of events could trigger another damaging earthquake near Paso Robles. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is fit to the Rinconada seismicity, and multiple realizations indicate a 0.36% probability of at least one M≥6.0 earthquake during the next 30 years. However, this probability estimate is only as good as the projection into the future of the ETAS model. There is evidence that the seismicity may be influenced by fluid pressure changes, which cannot be forecasted using ETAS. The strongest evidence for fluids is the delay between the San Simeon mainshock and a high rate of seismicity in mid to late 2004. This delay can be explained as having been caused by a pore pressure decrease due to an undrained response to the coseismic dilatation, followed by increased pore pressure during the return to equilibrium. Seismicity migration along the fault also suggests fluid involvement, although the migration is too slow to be consistent with pore pressure diffusion. All other evidence, including focal mechanisms and b‐value, is consistent with tectonic earthquakes. This suggests a model where the role of fluid pressure changes is limited to the first seven months, while the fluid pressure equilibrates. The ETAS modeling adequately fits the events after July 2004 when the pore pressure stabilizes. The ETAS models imply that while the probability of a damaging earthquake on the Rinconada fault has approximately doubled due to the San Simeon earthquake, the absolute probability remains low.

California↗

USGS2012

A comparison among observations and earthquake simulator results for the allcal2 California fault model

In order to understand earthquake hazards we would ideally have a statistical description of earthquakes for tens of thousands of years. Unfortunately the ∼100‐year instrumental, several 100‐year historical, and few 1000‐year paleoseismological records are woefully inadequate to provide a statistically significant record. Physics‐based earthquake simulators can generate arbitrarily long histories of earthquakes; thus they can provide a statistically meaningful history of simulated earthquakes. The question is, how realistic are these simulated histories? This purpose of this paper is to begin to answer that question. We compare the results between different simulators and with information that is known from the limited instrumental, historic, and paleoseismological data. As expected, the results from all the simulators show that the observational record is too short to properly represent the system behavior; therefore, although tests of the simulators against the limited observations are necessary, they are not a sufficient test of the simulators’ realism. The simulators appear to pass this necessary test. In addition, the physics‐based simulators show similar behavior even though there are large differences in the methodology. This suggests that they represent realistic behavior. Different assumptions concerning the constitutive properties of the faults do result in enhanced capabilities of some simulators. However, it appears that the similar behavior of the different simulators may result from the fault‐system geometry, slip rates, and assumed strength drops, along with the shared physics of stress transfer. This paper describes the results of running four earthquake simulators that are described elsewhere in this issue of Seismological Research Letters. The simulators ALLCAL (Ward, 2012), VIRTCAL (Sachs et al., 2012), RSQSim (Richards‐Dinger and Dieterich, 2012), and ViscoSim (Pollitz, 2012) were run on our most recent all‐California fault model, allcal2. With the exception of ViscoSim, which ran for 10,000 years, all the simulators ran for 30,000 years. Presentations containing content similar to this paper can be found at http://scec.usc.edu/research/eqsims/.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2022

Surface rupture on a secondary fault associated with the August 8, 2020, Mw 5.1 Sparta North Carolina Earthquake

On August 8, 2020 northwest North Carolina experienced a M w 5.1 earthquake that caused damage to buildings and roads in the city of Sparta. A regional centroid moment tensor solution shows the earthquake was the result of slip on a reverse fault with a minor strike-slip component. InSAR data, from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s ALOS2 satellite, reveal a deformation field that is more complex than expected from a single reverse fault earthquake. The data also reveal an apparent fault rupture at the Earth’s surface that caused damage to local roads. Modeling of the InSAR deformation field indicates the fault rupture is associated with a very shallow normal faulting event with an equivalent M w of about 5.1, that overprinted the reverse fault deformation field and possibly occurred aseismically.

North Carolina↗

USGS1986

STRIKE SLIP ON REACTIVATED TRIASSIC(? ) BASIN BOUNDARY FAULT ZONES AS SOURCES OF EARTHQUAKES NEAR CHARLESTON, S. C.

Interpretation of several thousand kilometers of multifold seismic reflection data supports the old theory that earthquakes in the Charleston, S. C. area are associated with reactivated Triassic(? ) basin boundary extensional fault zones. The Gants-Cooke fault zone associated with the Jedburg basin in the 1886 meizoseismal area, an unnamed fault along the margin of the Branchville basin in the Bowman earthquake area and the offshore Helena Banks fault zone (no observed seismicity) along the margin of the Kiawah basin show evidence of reactivation of Triassic(? ) normal faults zones in a compressional, probably strike slip sense. The previously reported reverse separation of these faults observed on the seismic profiles in the late Cretaceous-Cenozoic Coastal Plain sediments is possibly produced by oblique slip with the horizontal component possibly 10 to 100 times the vertical. Earthquake recurrence intervals of several thousand years reported in the Charleston area appear consistent with ranges of magnitude of strike slip displacement inferred from the seismic reflection data, and are constrained by aeromagnetic data.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2003

Static stress transfer during the 2002 Nenana Mountain-Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake sequence

On 23 October 2002, the Mw 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake occurred in central Alaska. It was followed on 3 November 2002 by the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault mainshock, the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in North America during the past 150 years. We have modeled static Coulomb stress transfer effects during this sequence. We find that the Nenana Mountain foreshock transferred 30-50 kPa of Coulomb stress to the hypocentral region of the Denali Fault mainshock, encouraging its occurrence. We also find that the two main earthquakes together transferred more than 400 kPa of Coulomb stress to the Cross Creek segment of the Totschunda fault system and to the Denali fault southeast of the mainshock rupture, and up to 80 kPa to the Denali fault west of the Nenana Mountain rupture. Other major faults in the region experienced much smaller static Coulomb stress changes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2004

Effects of fault dip and slip rake angles on near-source ground motions: Why rupture directivity was minimal in the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

We study how the fault dip and slip rake angles affect near-source ground velocities and displacements as faulting transitions from strike-slip motion on a vertical fault to thrust motion on a shallow-dipping fault. Ground motions are computed for five fault geometries with different combinations of fault dip and rake angles and common values for the fault area and the average slip. The nature of the shear-wave directivity is the key factor in determining the size and distribution of the peak velocities and displacements. Strong shear-wave directivity requires that (1) the observer is located in the direction of rupture propagation and (2) the rupture propagates parallel to the direction of the fault slip vector. We show that predominantly along-strike rupture of a thrust fault (geometry similar in the Chi-Chi earthquake) minimizes the area subjected to large-amplitude velocity pulses associated with rupture directivity, because the rupture propagates perpendicular to the slip vector; that is, the rupture propagates in the direction of a node in the shear-wave radiation pattern. In our simulations with a shallow hypocenter, the maximum peak-to-peak horizontal velocities exceed 1.5 m/sec over an area of only 200 km2 for the 30°-dipping fault (geometry similar to the Chi-Chi earthquake), whereas for the 60°- and 75°-dipping faults this velocity is exceeded over an area of 2700 km2 . These simulations indicate that the area subjected to large-amplitude long-period ground motions would be larger for events of the same size as Chi-Chi that have different styles of faulting or a deeper hypocenter.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1982

Surface displacement on the Imperial and Superstition Hills faults triggered by the Westmorland, California, earthquake of 26 April 1981

Parts of the Imperial and the Superstition Hills faults moved right-laterally at the ground surface at the time of or shortly following the ML 5.6 Westmorland earthquake of 26 April 1981. The displacements occurred prior to any significant aftershocks on either fault and thus are classed as sympathetic. Although the main shock was located in an exceptionally seismogenic part of Imperial Valley, about 20 km distant from either fault, no clear evidence of surface faulting has yet been found in the epicentral area. Horizontal displacement on the Imperial and Superstition Hills faults, southeast and southwest of the epicenter, respectively, reached maxima of 8 mm and 14 mm, and the discontinuous surface ruptures formed along approximately equal lengths of northern segments of the two structures (16.8 km and 15.7 km, respectively). The maximum vertical component of slip on the Imperial fault, 6 ram, was observed 3.4 km north of the point of largest horizontal slip. Vertical movement on the Superstition Hills fault was less than 1 mm. No new displacement was found along the traces of the Brawley fault zone, the San Andreas fault, or the part of the Coyote Creek fault that slipped during the 1968 Borrego Mountain earthquake. A careful search in the epicentral area of the main shock failed to locate any definite evidence of surface faulting. Concentrations of late aftershocks north and northeast of Calipatria near the southeastward projection of the San Andreas fault occurred mostly after our field check; this area was not investigated.

California↗

USGS2000

Did stress triggering cause the large off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 MW=8.1 Antarctic plate earthquake?

The 1998 Antarctic plate earthquake produced clusters of aftershocks (MW ??? 6.4) up to 80 km from the fault rupture and up to 100 km beyond the end of the rupture. Because the mainshock occurred far from the nearest plate boundary and the nearest recorded earthquake, it is unusually isolated from the stress perturbations caused by other earthquakes, making it a good candidate for stress transfer analysis despite the absence of near-field observations. We tested whether the off-fault aftershocks lie in regions brought closer to Coulomb failure by the main rupture. We evaluated four published source models for the main rupture. In fourteen tests using different aftershocks sets and allowing the rupture sources to be shifted within their uncertainties, 6 were significant at ??? 99% confidence, 3 at > 95% confidence, and 5 were not significant (< 95% level). For the 9 successful tests, the stress at the site of the aftershocks was typically increased by 1-2 bars (0.1-0.2 MPa). Thus the Antarctic plate event, together with the 1992 MW=7.3 Landers and its MW=6.5 Big Bear aftershock 40 km from the main fault, supply evidence that small stress changes might indeed trigger large earthquakes far from the main fault rupture.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1996

Holocene paleoseismicity, temporal clustering, and probabilities of future large (M > 7) earthquakes on the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

The chronology of M > 7 paleoearthquakes on the central five segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) is one of the best dated in the world and contains 16 earthquakes in the past 5600 years with an average repeat time of 350 years. Repeat times for individual segments vary by a factor of 2, and range from about 1200 to 2600 years. Four of the central five segments ruptured between ∼620 ± 30 and 1230 ± 60 calendar years B.P. The remaining segment (Brigham City segment) has not ruptured in the past 2120 ± 100 years. Comparison of the WFZ space-time diagram of paleoearthquakes with synthetic paleoseismic histories indicates that the observed temporal clusters and gaps have about an equal probability (depending on model assumptions) of reflecting random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion. Regional seismicity suggests that for exposure times of 50 and 100 years, the probability for an earthquake of M > 7 anywhere within the Wasatch Front region, based on a Poisson model, is 0.16 and 0.30, respectively. A fault-specific WFZ model predicts 50 and 100 year probabilities for an M > 7 earthquake on the WFZ itself, based on a Poisson model, as 0.13 and 0.25, respectively. In contrast, segment-specific earthquake probabilities that assume quasi-periodic recurrence behavior on the Weber, Provo, and Nephi segments are less (0.01–0.07 in 100 years) than the regional or fault-specific estimates (0.25–0.30 in 100 years), due to the short elapsed times compared to average recurrence intervals on those segments. The Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, however, have time-dependent probabilities that approach or exceed the regional and fault specific probabilities. For the Salt Lake City segment, these elevated probabilities are due to the elapsed time being approximately equal to the average late Holocene recurrence time. For the Brigham City segment, the elapsed time is significantly longer than the segment-specific late Holocene recurrence time.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1992

Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 Landers earthquake

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.

California↗

USGS2016

Afterslip behavior following the M6.0, 2014 South Napa earthquake with implications for afterslip forecasting on other seismogenic faults

The M6.0, 24 Aug. 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake exhibited unusually large slip for a California strike-slip event of its size with a maximum coseismic surface slip of 40-50 cm in the north section of the 15 km-long rupture. Although only minor (<10 cm) surface slip occurred coseismically in the southern 9-km section of the rupture, there was considerable postseismic slip, so that the maximum total slip one year after the event approached 40-50 cm, about equal to the coseismic maximum in the north. We measured the accumulation of postseismic surface slip on four, ~100-m-long alignment arrays for one year following the event. Because prolonged afterslip can delay reconstruction of fault-damaged buildings and infrastructure, we analyzed its gradual decay to estimate when significant afterslip would likely end. This forecasting of Napa afterslip suggests how we might approach the scientific and engineering challenges of afterslip from a much larger M~7 earthquake anticipated on the nearby, urban Hayward Fault. However, we expect its afterslip to last much longer than one year.The M6.0, 24 Aug. 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake exhibited unusually large slip for a California strike-slip event of its size with a maximum coseismic surface slip of 40-50 cm in the north section of the 15 km-long rupture. Although only minor (<10 cm) surface slip occurred coseismically in the southern 9-km section of the rupture, there was considerable postseismic slip, so that the maximum total slip one year after the event approached 40-50 cm, about equal to the coseismic maximum in the north. We measured the accumulation of postseismic surface slip on four, ~100-m-long alignment arrays for one year following the event. Because prolonged afterslip can delay reconstruction of fault-damaged buildings and infrastructure, we analyzed its gradual decay to estimate when significant afterslip would likely end. This forecasting of Napa afterslip suggests how we might approach the scientific and engineering challenges of afterslip from a much larger M~7 earthquake anticipated on the nearby, urban Hayward Fault. However, we expect its afterslip to last much longer than one year.

California↗

USGS2026

Earthquake rupture arrest from depth‐dependent frictional stability on the Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye (Turkey)

Determining why earthquake ruptures stop is a central challenge in earthquake science and seismic hazard assessment. The Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye, exhibits shallow creep (<∼3 km depth) yet hosts M > 6.5 earthquake ruptures at greater depth. Here, we evaluate whether variations in frictional stability along this segment aided arrest of the 2020 M 6.7 Elaziğ and 2023 M 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake ruptures. Analysis of Sentinel‐1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery indicates the 2023 M 7.8 rupture propagated laterally into a metamorphic massif within the Pütürge segment, where slip rapidly decayed below detection limits. Creepmeters along this segment recorded no significant surface afterslip (<3 mm) in the following year. To investigate this fault‐slip behavior, we conducted triaxial friction experiments on Pütürge fault gouge sampled from an outcrop exposure. The gouge, composed primarily of muscovite, quartz, and calcite, is velocity strengthening at conditions approximating 0–2.5 km depth and velocity weakening at 4–5 km depth. This transition to velocity‐weakening friction is associated with enhanced comminution and shear localization observed microstructurally. Our results suggest that depth‐dependent frictional stability of the Pütürge fault segment facilitates rupture nucleation and propagation at depth while maintaining rupture‐arresting behavior near Earth’s surface.

Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone↗

USGS2018

The Hayward Fault—Is it due for a repeat of the powerful 1868 earthquake?

On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay area. Although the region was sparsely populated, the quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California’s history. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies show that similar Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past and that the fault may be ready to produce another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Such an earthquake could unexpectedly change people’s lives and impact the Bay Area’s infrastructure and economy, but updated building codes and retrofits, as well as planning, community training, and preparedness, will help reduce the effects of a future Hayward Fault earthquake.

California↗