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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks. We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract. Overall, models indicated that suitable habitats for whitebark and foxtail pine are more likely to shift geographically within the parks by 2100 rather than decline precipitously. This implies park managers might focus conservation efforts on stressors other than climate change, working toward species resilience in the face of threats from introduced disease and elevated native insect damage. More specifically, further understanding of the incidence and severity of white pine blister rust and other stressors in high elevation white pines would help assess vulnerability from threats other than climate change.

California↗

USGS1999

The distribution of, and relation among, mercury and methylmercury, organic carbon, carbonate, nitrogen and phosphorus, in periphyton of the south Florida ecosystem

Periphyton samples from Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, and Everglades National Park in south Florida were analyzed for concentrations of total mercury, methylmercury, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, and inorganic carbon. Concentrations of total mercury in periphyton decrease slightly along a gradient from north‐to‐south. Both total mercury and methylmercury are positively correlated with organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in periphyton. In horizontal sections of periphyton mats, total mercury concentrations tend to be largest at the tops and bottoms of the mats. Methylmercury concentrations tend to be the largest near the bottom of mats. These localized elevated concentrations of methylmercury suggest that there are “hot spots”; of methylmercury in periphyton.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Turbidity alters pre-mating social interactions between native and invasive stream fishes

Environmental degradation can result in the loss of aquatic biodiversity if impairment promotes hybridisation between non-native and native species. Although aquatic biological invasions involving hybridisation have been attributed to elevated water turbidity, the extent to which impaired clarity influences reproductive isolation among non-native and native species is poorly understood. We examined whether turbidity influences intraspecific and interspecific pre-mating social interactions between invasive red shiner ( Cyprinella lutrensis ) and native blacktail shiner ( Cyprinella venusta ) from the Upper Coosa River Basin (U.S.A.). We found that the number or duration of conspecific and heterospecific interactions increased under turbid conditions. Additionally, we found evidence indicating that native blacktail shiner females are especially likely to interact with invasive red shiner males due to species- and sex-specific responses to turbid conditions. These findings suggest that elevated turbidity can increase pre-mating social interactions between native and invasive species, which could result in greater hybridisation and promote the genetic assimilation of native species following species introductions. Thus, integrating knowledge of species behaviour into conservation and management planning can help deter the establishment and spread of invasive species.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2002

Introduction

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska is one of 16 refuges in Alaska and 539 refuges nationwide within the National Wildlife Refuge System administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. First established as the Arctic National Wildlife Range in 1960 by Public Land Order 2214, it initially had a three-fold purpose to preserve unique wildlife, wilderness, and recreation values on 8.9 million acres. In 1980, the Arctic National Wildlife Range was expanded to the southwest and renamed the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (also called the Arctic Refuge in this report) when the U.S. Congress passed the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA), Public Law 96-487 (94 Stat. 2371). This legislation also designated almost all of the original Arctic National Wildlife Range as wilderness, and it directed the Secretary of the Interior to conduct studies evaluating both the biological resources and the potential petroleum reserves of 1.5 million acres (titled the 1002 Area) on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge. In April 1982, the Arctic Refuge staff completed a report summarizing the then current state of knowledge on the fish, wildlife, and their habitats present on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1982). From 1982 to 1985, field investigations of biological resources of the 1002 Area were carried out by a number of investigators, and annual reports summarized the results (Garner and Reynolds 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987). These reports and other resources were used to prepare a Department of the Interior report to Congress: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska Coastal Plain Resource Assessment - Report and Recommendation to the Congress of the United States and Final Environmental Impact Satement (Clough et al., 1987).

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2019

Floodplains provide important amphibian habitat despite multiple ecological threats

Floodplain ponds and wetlands are productive and biodiverse ecosystems, yet they face multiple threats including altered hydrology, land use change, and non‐native species. Protecting and restoring important floodplain ecosystems requires understanding how organisms use these habitats and respond to altered environmental conditions. We developed Bayesian models to evaluate occupancy of six amphibian species across 103 off‐channel aquatic habitats in the Chehalis River floodplain, Washington State, USA. The basin has been altered by changes in land use, reduced river–wetland connections, and the establishment of non‐native American bullfrogs ( Rana catesbeiana = Lithobates catesbeianus ) and centrarchid fishes, all of which we hypothesized could influence native amphibian occupancy. Despite potential threats, the floodplain habitats had relatively high rates of native amphibian occupancy, particularly when compared to studies from non‐floodplain habitats within the species’ native ranges. The biggest challenge for native amphibians appears to be non‐native centrarchid fishes, which strongly reduced occupancy of two native amphibians: the northern red‐legged frog ( Rana aurora ) and the northwestern salamander ( Ambystoma gracile ). Emergent vegetative cover increased occupancy probability for all five native amphibian species, indicating that plant management may offer a strategy to counter the negative effect of centrarchids by providing refuge from predation. We found that temporary and permanent hydroperiod sites supported different species; hence, both should be conserved on the landscape. Lastly, human‐created and natural ponds had similar amphibian occupancy patterns, suggesting that pond construction offers a viable strategy for adding habitats to the floodplain landscape. Overall, floodplain ponds and wetlands provide important amphibian habitat, and we offer management strategies that will bolster amphibian occupancy in an altered floodplain landscape.

Washington↗

USGS2023

Identifying drivers of population dynamics for a stream breeding amphibian using time series of egg mass counts

The decline in amphibian populations is one of the starkest examples of the biodiversity crisis. For stream breeding amphibians, alterations to natural flow regimes by dams, water diversions, and climate change have been implicated in declines and extirpations. Identifying drivers of amphibian declines requires long time series of abundance data because amphibian populations can exhibit high natural variability. Multiple population viability analysis (MPVA) models integrate abundance data and share information from different populations to estimate how environmental factors influence population growth. Flow alteration has been linked to declines and extirpations in the Foothill Yellow-legged Frog ( Rana boylii ), a stream breeding amphibian native to California and Oregon. To date, no study has jointly analyzed abundance data from populations throughout the range of R. boylii in an MPVA model. We compiled time series of egg mass counts (an index of adult female abundance) from R. boylii populations in 36 focal streams and fit an MPVA model to quantify how streamflow metrics, stream temperature, and surrounding land cover affect population growth. We found population growth was positively related to stream temperature and was higher in the years following a wet year with high total annual streamflow. Density dependence was weakest (i.e., carrying capacity was highest) for streams with high seasonality of streamflow and intermediate rates of change in streamflow during spring. Our results highlight how altered streamflow can further increase the risk of decline for R. boylii populations. Managing stream conditions to better match natural flow and thermal regimes would benefit the conservation of R. boylii populations.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2006

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)-West: Summary of activities and accomplishments in South Dakota, 2000-2004

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)-West was initiated in South Dakota in 2000 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The two primary objectives of the surface waters component of EMAP-West were to (1) develop the monitoring tools (biological indicators, stream survey design, estimates of reference condition) necessary to produce unbiased estimates of the ecological condition of surface waters across a large geographic area of the West; and (2) demonstrate the effectiveness of those tools in a large-scale assessment. Although not specifically defined as an objective, data collected during EMAP-West also will help to establish a baseline for comparisons with data obtained from future monitoring efforts and could document changing biological conditions resulting from changing land-use or land-management practices associated with regulatory or restorative efforts. EMAP-West is a partnership between USEPA, States, Tribes, and other interested parties in USEPA Regions 8, 9, and 10. In South Dakota, the principle EMAP-West cooperators include the USEPA, South Dakota Department of Game, Fish and Parks (GF&P), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Other agencies such as the Natural Resource Conservation Service, the South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources (SDDENR), State Conservation Districts, and various Tribal departments also have provided valuable expertise and assistance. This fact sheet summarizes the activities and accomplishments associated with EMAP-West in South Dakota during 2000–2004. Efforts were focused on perennial streams that usually can be waded. Large rivers also were assessed during EMAP-West under the auspices of USEPA using boats and similar techniques, but are not included in the activities discussed here. Data-collection activities for wadeable streams were conducted under the auspices of USEPA in South Dakota during 2000 and by the USGS during 2001–2004. A more detailed description of EMAP-West activities and assessments in South Dakota is available in Heakin and others ( in press ).

South Dakota↗

USGS2026

Previous prescribed burns saved thousands of ancient sequoias during historically unprecedented wildfires

Wildfires in California’s Sierra Nevada during 2020–2021 killed giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) at rates unseen for millennia, underscoring the vulnerability of highly fire-adapted trees to ongoing environmental change. Following a century of fire exclusion and fuel accumulation, the effectiveness of prescribed burns in reducing giant sequoia mortality from wildfire remained poorly quantified. Here we estimate mortality outcomes for 26,403 giant sequoias across 19 groves in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks following the Castle (2020) and KNP Complex (2021) wildfires using a Bayesian framework. We map tree mortality using a deep learning classifier integrating 3 m PlanetScope imagery, airborne lidar, and field observations. From an estimated 7,974 sequoia deaths (95% Bayesian credible interval (CI): 7,555–8,430), corresponding to 30.2% mortality (CI: 28.6–31.9%), we find previous prescribed burns (≤10 years prior) reduced mortality odds by 77% (CI: 69–83%), making treated trees nearly four times more likely to survive. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prescribed burns prevented at least 1,888 (CI: 1,487–2,302) deaths, and universal treatment would have saved an additional 3,888 (CI: 3,236–4,580) giant sequoias. These results show that prescribed burns substantially improve survival during extreme wildfires, offering guidance for conserving long-lived, fire-adapted forests under intensifying fire regimes.

California↗

USGS2009

Identifying across‐system sources of variation in a generalist freshwater fish: Correlates of total and size‐specific abundance of yellow perch

Variation in fish abundance across systems presents a challenge to our understanding of fish populations because it limits our ability to predict and transfer basic ecological principles to applied problems. Yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) is an ideal species for exploring environmental and biotic correlates across system because it is widely distributed and physiologically tolerant. In 16 small, adjacent systems that span a wide range of environmental and biotic conditions, yellow perch were sampled with a standard suite of gear. Water quality, morphometry, vegetation, invertebrates and fish communities were concurrently measured. Multimodel inference was used to prioritise regressors for the entire yellow perch sample and three size groups (35-80, 81-180, ≥181 mm TL). Across systems, pH and fish richness were identified as the key drivers of yellow perch abundance. At very low pH (<4.0), few fish species and few yellow perch individuals were found. At ponds with moderately low pH (4.0–4.8), numbers of yellow perch increased. Ponds with high pH (>4.8) had many other species and few yellow perch. Similar patterns for pH and fish community were observed for the two largest‐size classes. Negative interactions were observed between the medium‐ and large‐sized yellow perch and between the largest and smallest yellow perch, although interspecific interactions were weaker than expected. This examination of variability for an indicator species and its component‐size classes provides ecological understanding that can help frame the larger‐scale sampling programs needed for the conservation of freshwater fish.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

USGS2001

A spatially referenced regression model (SPARROW) for suspended sediment in streams of the Conterminous U.S.

Suspended sediment has long been recognized as an important contaminant affecting water resources. Besides its direct role in determining water clarity, bridge scour and reservoir storage, sediment serves as a vehicle for the transport of many binding contaminants, including nutrients, trace metals, semi-volatile organic compounds, a nd numerous pesticides (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000a). Recent efforts to addr ess water-quality concerns through the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process have iden tified sediment as the single most prevalent cause of impairment in the Nation’s streams a nd rivers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000b). Moreover, sediment has been identified as a medium for the tran sport and sequestration of organic carbon, playing a potentia lly important role in understa nding sources and sinks in the global carbon budget (Stallard, 1998). A comprehensive understanding of sediment fate a nd transport is considered essential to the design and implementation of effective plans for sediment management (Osterkamp and others, 1998, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1990). An exte nsive literature addr essing the problem of quantifying sediment transport has produced a nu mber of methods for estimating its flux (see Cohn, 1995, and Robertson and Roerish, 1999, for us eful surveys). The accuracy of these methods is compromised by uncertainty in the concentration measurements and by the highly episodic nature of sediment movement, particul arly when the methods are applied to smaller basins. However, for annual or decadal flux es timates, the methods are generally reliable if calibrated with extended periods of data (Robertson and Roerish, 1999). A substantial literature also supports the Universal Soil Loss Equation (U SLE) (Soil Conservation Service, 1983), an engineering method for estimating sheet and rill erosion, although the empirical credentials of the USLE have recently been questioned (Tri mble and Crosson, 2000). Conversely, relatively little direct evidence is available concerning the fate of sediment. The common practice of quantifying sediment fate with a sediment deliv ery ratio, estimated from a simple empirical relation with upstream basin area, does not artic ulate the relative importance of individual storage sites within a basin (Wolman, 1977). Rates of sediment deposition in reservoirs and flood plains can be determined from empirical measurement s , but only a limited number of sites have been monitored, and net rates of deposition or loss from other potential sinks and sources is largely unknown (Stallard, 1998). In particular, little is known about how much sediment loss from fields ultimately makes its way to stream channels, and how much sediment is subsequently stored in or lost from th e streambed (Meade and Parker, 1985, Trimble and Crosson, 2000). This paper reports on recent progress made to a ddress empirically the question of sediment fate and transport on a national scale. The model pres ented here is based on the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attr ibutes (SPARROW) methodology, fi rst used to estimate the distribution of nutrients in str eams and rivers of the United Stat es, and subsequently shown to describe land and stream processes affecting the delivery of nutrients (Smith and others, 1997, Alexander and others, 2000, Preston and Brakeb ill, 1999). The model makes use of numerous spatial datasets, available at the national level, to explain long-term sediment water-quality conditions in major streams and rivers throughou t the United States. Sediment sources are identified using sediment erosion rates from the National Resources I nventory (NRI) (Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2000) and apportioned over the landscape according to 30- meter resolution land-use information from th e National Land Cover Data set (NLCD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000a). More than 76,000 reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams (NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engin eers, 1996) are identified as pot ential sediment sinks. Other, non-anthropogenic sources and sinks are identified using soil in formation from the State Soil Survey Geographic (STATSGO) data base (Schwarz and Alexander, 1995) and spatial coverages representing surficial rock t ype and vegetative cover. The SPA RROW model empirically relates these diverse spatial datasets to estimates of long-term, mean annual sediment flux computed from concentration and flow measurements co llected over the period 1985 -95 from more than 400 monitoring stations maintained by the Na tional Stream Quality Accounting Network (Alexander and others, 1998), the National Wa ter Quality Assessment Program, and U.S. Geological Survey District offices (Turcios and Gray, in press). Th e calibrated model is used to estimate sediment flux for over 60,000 stream segments included in the River Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network (Alexander and others, 1999). SPARROW uses statis tical methods to calibrate a simple, structural model of riverine water quality, one that imposes mass ba lance in accounting for changes in contaminant flux. As applied here, the mass-balance approach facilitates the interpretation of model results in terms of physical processes affecting sediment transport, and makes possible the estimation of various rates of sediment generation and loss associated with stream channels and features of the landscape. The statistical approach provides a basi s for assessing the error of these inferred rates and of the error in extrapolated estimates of sediment flux made for streams in the RF1 network. An important implication of the holistic modeling approach adopted in this analysis is that estimates of sediment production and loss ar e based on, and therefore consistent with, measurements of in-stream flux. Other ancillary information, such as direct measurements of long-term sediment storage and release from rese rvoirs (Steffen, 1996), is incorporated into the analysis by specifying additional equations expl aining these ancillary variables. The imposition of cross-equation constraints affords this info rmation a statistically consistent weight in explaining in-stream sediment flux. Thus, the me thodology described here represents a general framework for synthesizing a wide spectrum of available information relevant to the understanding of sediment fate and transport.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2014

Data worth and prediction uncertainty for pesticide transport and fate models in Nebraska and Maryland, United States

BACKGROUND Complex environmental models are frequently extrapolated to overcome data limitations in space and time, but quantifying data worth to such models is rarely attempted. The authors determined which field observations most informed the parameters of agricultural system models applied to field sites in Nebraska (NE) and Maryland (MD), and identified parameters and observations that most influenced prediction uncertainty. RESULTS The standard error of regression of the calibrated models was about the same at both NE (0.59) and MD (0.58), and overall reductions in prediction uncertainties of metolachlor and metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid concentrations were 98.0 and 98.6% respectively. Observation data groups reduced the prediction uncertainty by 55–90% at NE and by 28–96% at MD. Soil hydraulic parameters were well informed by the observed data at both sites, but pesticide and macropore properties had comparatively larger contributions after model calibration. CONCLUSIONS Although the observed data were sparse, they substantially reduced prediction uncertainty in unsampled regions of pesticide breakthrough curves. Nitrate evidently functioned as a surrogate for soil hydraulic data in well-drained loam soils conducive to conservative transport of nitrogen. Pesticide properties and macropore parameters could most benefit from improved characterization further to reduce model misfit and prediction uncertainty. RESULTS: The standard error of regression of the calibrated models was about the same at both NE (0.59) and MD (0.58), and overall reductions in prediction uncertainties of metolachlor and metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid concentrations were 98.0 and 98.6% respectively. Observation data groups reduced the prediction uncertainty by 55–90% at NE and by 28–96% at MD. Soil hydraulic parameters were well informed by the observed data at both sites, but pesticide and macropore properties had comparatively larger contributions after model calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Although the observed data were sparse, they substantially reduced prediction uncertainty in unsampled regions of pesticide breakthrough curves. Nitrate evidently functioned as a surrogate for soil hydraulic data in well-drained loam soils conducive to conservative transport of nitrogen. Pesticide properties and macropore parameters could most benefit from improved characterization further to reduce model misfit and prediction uncertainty.

Maryl;Nebraska↗

USGS2015

Environmental effects on the aquatic system and metal discharge to the Mediterranean Sea from a near-neutral zinc-ferrous sulfate mine drainage

After mine closure in the 1980s and subsequent shutdown of the dewatering system, groundwater rebound led to drainage outflow from the Casargiu gallery (Montevecchio mine, SW Sardinia, Italy) beginning in 1997. Mine drainage had pH 6.0 and dissolved concentrations of sulfate (5000 mg/L) and metals (e.g., 1000 mg/L Zn, 230 mg/L Fe, 150 mg/L Mn) much higher than those previously measured in groundwater under dewatering conditions. As compared with the first stages of rebound at Casargiu, a very high contamination level still persists after more than 15 years of flushing. Mine drainage (20–70 L/s; pH 6.0 ± 0.2; Zn-Mg-Ca-SO 4 composition) flowed into the Rio Irvi. Abundant precipitation of amorphous Fe(III)-(oxy)hydroxides occurred. Moreover, sulfate-bearing green rust was observed to flocculate in the reach of the Rio Irvi where pH was still circumneutral. Water sampling along this stream for about 6 km almost to its mouth in the Mediterranean Sea showed a pH decrease from 6.0 to 4.0 and a significant removal of Fe (46 %) and As (96 %), while sulfate, Zn, Mn, Co, Ni, and Cd showed small variations downstream. Lead was initially adsorbed onto Fe(III)-(oxy)hydroxides, then desorbed as pH dropped below 5. The estimated amount of dissolved metals discharged into the Mediterranean Sea is significant (e.g., 900 kg/day Zn, 1.4 kg/day Cd, 5 kg/day Ni). In particular, a conservative estimation of the amount of Zn discharged to the sea is about 330 ton/year, which would correspond to 1.4 % of the global annual flux of dissolved Zn from uncontaminated rivers to the oceans.

Sardinia↗

USGS2020

Occurrence of a suite of stream-obligate amphibians in timberlands of Mendocino County, California, examined using environmental DNA

Stream-obligate amphibians are important indicators of ecosystem health in the Pacific Northwest, but distributional information to improve forest management is lacking in many regions. We analyzed archived DNA extracted from water samples in 60 pools in streams on private timberlands in Mendocino County, California, for 3 California Species of Special Concern—Coastal Tailed Frogs ( Ascaphus truei ), Foothill Yellow-legged Frogs ( Rana boylii ), and Southern Torrent Salamanders ( Rhyacotriton variegatus )—to better understand their distributions in the region. Detection probabilities for eDNA of Foothill Yellow-legged Frogs and Coastal Tailed Frogs were positively influenced by water temperature. eDNA occurrence for both frogs was affected by whether silt or organic matter was a dominant substrate in the sampled pool, and Foothill Yellow-legged Frog eDNA occurrence was also affected by water temperature. Foothill Yellow-legged Frog eDNA occurrence had a strong, positive association with water temperature, with occurrence unlikely below 14°C and very likely above 16°C, and a positive association with silt or organic substrates in pools, which was likely an indicator of higher-order stream reaches. In contrast, Coastal Tailed Frogs had a negative association with silt or organic substrates. Historical visual detections were generally congruent with findings using eDNA, but differences highlight important areas for further study. We did not detect Southern Torrent Salamanders using eDNA at any sites. Our study reinforces that ecological relationships of these species are varied, and shows the importance of maintaining the integrity of streams with diverse characteristics for conserving stream amphibians.

California↗

USGS2002

Intermittent fasting during winter and spring affects body composition and reproduction of a migratory duck

We compared food intake, body mass and body composition of male and female black ducks (Anas rubripes) during winter (January-March). Birds were fed the same complete diet ad libitum on consecutive days each week without fasting (control; nine male; nine female) or with either short fasts (2 day.week-1; nine male; nine female), or long fasts (4 day.week-1; eleven male; twelve female). We continued treatments through spring (March-May) to measure the effect of intermittent fasts on body mass and egg production. Daily food intake of fasted birds was up to four times that of unfasted birds. Weekly food intake of males was similar among treatments (364 g.kg-1.week-1) but fasted females consumed more than unfasted females in January (363 g.kg-1.week-1 vs. 225 g.kg-1.week-1). Although both sexes lost 10-14% body mass, fasted females lost less mass and lipid than unfasted females during winter. Total body nitrogen was conserved over winter in both sexes even though the heart and spleen lost mass while the reproductive tract and liver gained mass. Intermittent fasting increased liver, intestinal tissue and digesta mass of females but not of males. Fasting delayed egg production in spring but did not affect size, fertility or hatching of the clutch. Females on long fasts were still heavier than controls after laying eggs. Thus black ducks combine flexibility of food intake with plasticity of digestive tract, liver and adipose tissue when food supply is interrupted during winter. Females modulate body mass for survival and defer reproduction when food supply is interrupted in spring.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, ↗

USGS2018

Adaptive management of animal populations with significant unknowns and uncertainties: A case study

Conservation and management decision making in natural resources is challenging due to numerous uncertainties and unknowns, especially relating to understanding system dynamics. Adaptive resource management (ARM) is a formal process to making logical and transparent recurrent decisions when there are uncertainties about system dynamics. Despite wide recognition and calls for implementing adaptive natural resource management, applications remain limited. More common is a reactive approach to decision making, which ignores future system dynamics. This contrasts with ARM, which anticipates future dynamics of ecological process and management actions using a model-based framework. Practitioners may be reluctant to adopt ARM because of the dearth of comparative evaluations between ARM and more common approaches to making decisions. We compared the probability of meeting management objectives when managing a population under both types of decision frameworks, specifically in relation to typical uncertainties and unknowns. We use a population of Sandhill Cranes as our case study. We evaluate each decision process under varying levels of monitoring and ecological uncertainty, where the true underlying population dynamics followed a stochastic age-structured population model with environmentally driven vital rate density dependence. We found that the ARM framework outperformed the currently employed reactive decision framework to manage Sandhill Cranes in meeting the population objective across an array of scenarios. This was even the case when the candidate set of population models contained only naïve representations of the true population process. Under the reactive decision framework, we found little improvement in meeting the population objective even if monitoring uncertainty was eliminated. In contrast, if the population was monitored without error within the ARM framework, the population objective was always maintained, regardless of the population models considered. Contrary to expectation, we found that age-specific optimal harvest decisions are not always necessary to meet a population objective when population dynamics are age structured. Population managers can decrease risks and gain transparency and flexibility in management by adopting an ARM framework. If population monitoring data has high sampling variation and/or limited empirical knowledge is available for constructing mechanistic population models, ARM model sets should consider a range of mechanistic, descriptive, and predictive model types.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2012

Modeling of soil erosion and sediment transport in the East River Basin in southern China

Soil erosion is a major global environmental problem that has caused many issues involving land degradation, sedimentation of waterways, ecological degradation, and nonpoint source pollution. Therefore, it is significant to understand the processes of soil erosion and sediment transport along rivers, and this can help identify the erosion prone areas and find potential measures to alleviate the environmental effects. In this study, we investigated soil erosion and identified the most seriously eroded areas in the East River Basin in southern China using a physically-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We also introduced a classical sediment transport method (Zhang) into SWAT and compared it with the built-in Bagnold method in simulating sediment transport process along the river. The derived spatial soil erosion map and land use based erosion levels can explicitly illustrate the identification and prioritization of the critical soil erosion areas in this basin. Our results also indicate that erosion is quite sensitive to soil properties and slope. Comparison of Bagnold and Zhang methods shows that the latter can give an overall better performance especially in tracking the peak and low sediment concentrations along the river. We also found that the East River is mainly characterized by sediment deposition in most of the segments and at most times of a year. Overall, the results presented in this paper can provide decision support for watershed managers about where the best management practices (conservation measures) can be implemented effectively and at low cost. The methods we used in this study can also be of interest in sediment modeling for other basins worldwide.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2017

Used-habitat calibration plots: A new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models

“Species distribution modeling” was recently ranked as one of the top five “research fronts” in ecology and the environmental sciences by ISI's Essential Science Indicators (Renner and Warton 2013), reflecting the importance of predicting how species distributions will respond to anthropogenic change. Unfortunately, species distribution models (SDMs) often perform poorly when applied to novel environments. Compounding on this problem is the shortage of methods for evaluating SDMs (hence, we may be getting our predictions wrong and not even know it). Traditional methods for validating SDMs quantify a model's ability to classify locations as used or unused. Instead, we propose to focus on how well SDMs can predict the characteristics of used locations. This subtle shift in viewpoint leads to a more natural and informative evaluation and validation of models across the entire spectrum of SDMs. Through a series of examples, we show how simple graphical methods can help with three fundamental challenges of habitat modeling: identifying missing covariates, non-linearity, and multicollinearity. Identifying habitat characteristics that are not well-predicted by the model can provide insights into variables affecting the distribution of species, suggest appropriate model modifications, and ultimately improve the reliability and generality of conservation and management recommendations.

Ecography↗

USGS2024

Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia

Climate change is anticipated to cause species to shift their ranges upward and poleward, yet space for tracking suitable habitat conditions may be limited for range-restricted species at the highest elevations and latitudes of the globe. Consequently, range-restricted species inhabiting Arctic freshwater ecosystems, where global warming is most pronounced, face the challenge of coping with changing abiotic and biotic conditions or risk extinction. Here, we use an extensive fish community and environmental dataset for 1762 lakes sampled across Scandinavia (mid-1990s) to evaluate the climate vulnerability of Arctic char ( Salvelinus alpinus ), the world's most cold-adapted and northernly distributed freshwater fish. Machine learning models show that abiotic and biotic factors strongly predict the occurrence of Arctic char across the region with an overall accuracy of 89 percent. Arctic char is less likely to occur in lakes with warm summer temperatures, high dissolved organic carbon levels (i.e., browning), and presence of northern pike ( Esox lucius ). Importantly, climate warming impacts are moderated by habitat (i.e., lake area) and amplified by the presence of competitors and/or predators (i.e., northern pike). Climate warming projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario indicate that 81% of extant populations are at high risk of extirpation by 2080. Highly vulnerable populations occur across their range, particularly near the southern range limit and at lower elevations, with potential refugia found in some mountainous and coastal regions. Our findings highlight that range shifts may give way to range contractions for this cold-water specialist, indicating the need for pro-active conservation and mitigation efforts to avoid the loss of Arctic freshwater biodiversity.

Global Change Biology↗