USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Nature Climate Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,675 records · Page 93Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Hydrogeologic characteristics of Hourglass and New Years Cave Lakes at Jewel Cave National Monument, South Dakota, from water-level and water-chemistry data, 2015–21

Jewel Cave National Monument is in the western Black Hills of South Dakota and contains an extensive cave network, including various subterranean water bodies (cave lakes) that are believed to represent the regionally important Madison aquifer. Recent investigations have sought to improve understanding of hydrogeologic characteristics of cave lakes in Jewel Cave. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, collected water-level and water-chemistry data within and near Jewel Cave to better understand groundwater interactions in Jewel Cave and to evaluate recharge characteristics of cave lakes. Continuous water-level data were collected at two cave lakes (Hourglass and New Years Lakes) from 2018 to 2021, and discrete measurements were collected by National Park Service staff from 2015 to 2021. Water samples were collected from one stream, one rain collector, three springs, and two cave lakes. The approach for this study included comparing water-level data collected from two cave lakes to historical climate data and using multivariate statistical analyses to evaluate water samples collected during this study and from previous investigations. This study builds on interpretations from previous investigations that collected similar datasets and performed similar analyses. Hydrographs of Hourglass and News Years Lakes from 2015 to 2021 demonstrated the variability of groundwater levels in Jewel Cave in response to dry and wet climate conditions. Hourglass Lake displayed small (up to 4.8 feet), gradual water-level changes, whereas New Years Lake displayed relatively large (up to at least 27.5 feet) and rapid water-level changes. Hourglass and New Years Lakes are about 0.4 mile apart at the land surface, and the water-level elevation between the lakes varied from 61 to 93.5 feet from 2016 to 2021. The proximity and relatively small elevation difference of Hourglass and New Years Lakes indicated different recharge sources and (or) mechanisms were responsible for hydrograph dissimilarities. Water-level changes at Hourglass Lake were similar to water-level changes at a well completed in the Madison aquifer about 9 miles south of Jewel Cave National Monument, which indicated Hourglass Lake may be recharged similar to the regional Madison aquifer along outcrops north of Jewel Cave. New Years Lake displayed almost no similarities to the well completed in the Madison aquifer—indicating a more direct connection to local recharge rather than solely from outcrops recharging the regional Madison aquifer. Results from multivariate statistical analyses of water-chemistry data were used to evaluate recharge observations from water-level data. The water chemistry of Hourglass Lake indicated its water was chemically more similar to precipitation than other groundwater sites sampled. A conceptual karst recharge model indicated that the dominant recharge source to Hourglass Lake was diffuse allogenic recharge from vertical movement of infiltrated precipitation through vertical or near-vertical fractures that extend through the Minnelusa Formation and unsaturated zone of the Madison Limestone. The water chemistry of New Years Lake was chemically similar to Hell Canyon Creek about 0.2 mile from New Years Lake at the land surface. Streamflow loss zones (concentrated allogenic recharge) along Hell Canyon Creek have not been mapped, but their presence in the Jewel Cave area has been speculated by previous investigations. A fault observed in the cave ceiling above New Years Lake by National Park Service staff could provide a natural conduit for direct recharge from Hell Canyon Creek to New Years Lake if the fault is extensive. Additional water-chemistry and water-level data, as well as streamflow data upstream and downstream of the potential streamflow loss zone along Hell Canyon Creek, are needed to prove the presence of this loss zone and discern further correlations between streamflow and water levels in New Years Lake. Observations from previous investigations and this study indicated recharge to Jewel Cave is complex and occurs on various timescales that are affected temporally by precipitation patterns and spatially by hydrologic connection with the overlying Minnelusa aquifer of the Minnelusa Formation.

South Dakota↗
USGS1979

Hydrology and surface morphology of the Bonneville Salt Flats and Pilot Valley Playa, Utah

The Bonneville Salt Flats and Pilot Valley are in the western part of the Great Salt Lake Desert in northwest Utah. The areas are separate, though similar, hydrologic basins, and both contain a salt crust. The Bonneville salt crust covered about 40 square miles in the fall of 1976, and the salt crust in Pilot Valley covered 7 square miles. Both areas lack any noticeable surface relief (in 1976, 1.3 feet on the Bonneville salt crust and 0.3 foot on the Pilot Valley salt crust). The salt crust on the Salt Flats has been used for many years for automobile racing, and brines from shallow lacustrine deposits have been used for the production of potash. In recent years, there has been an apparent conflict between these two major uses of the area as the salt crust has diminished in both thickness and extent. Much of the Bonneville Racetrack has become rougher, and there has also been an increase in the amount of sediment on the south end of the racetrack. The Pilot Valley salt crust and surrounding playa have been largely unused. Evaporite minerals on the Salt Flats and the Pilot Valley playa are concentrated in three zones: (1) a carbonate zone composed mainly of authigenic clay-size carbonate minerals, (2) a sulfate zone composed mainly of authigenic gypsum, and (3) a chloride zone composed of crystalline halite (the salt crust). Five major types of salt crust were recognized on the Salt Flats, but only one type was observed in Pilot Valley. Geomorphic differences in the salt crust are caused by differences in their hydrologic environments. The salt crusts are dynamic features that are subject to change because of climatic factors and man's activities. Ground water occurs in three distinct aquifers in much of the western Great Salt Lake Desert: (1) the basin-fill aquifer, which yields water from conglomerate in the lower part of the basin fill, (2) the alluvial-fan aquifer, which yields water from sand and gravel along the western margins of both playas, and (3) the shallow-brine aquifer, which yields water from near-surface carbonate muds and crystalline halite and gypsum. The shallow-brine aquifer is the main source of brine used for the production of potash on the Salt Flats. Recharge to that part of the shallow-brine aquifer north of Interstate Highway 80 on the Salt Flats is mainly by infiltration of precipitation and wind-driven floods of surface brine. Discharge was mainly by evaporation at the playa surface and withdrawals from brine-collection ditches. Some water was transpired by phreatophytes, and some leaked into the alluvial fan along the western edge of the playa. Salt-scraping studies indicate that the amount of halite on the Salt Flats is directly related to the amount of recharge through the surface (which causes re-solution of halite) and the amount of evaporation at the surface (which causes crystallization of halite). Evaporation rates through sediment-covered salt crust and the gypsum surface were estimated at between 3x10 -4 and 4x10 -3 inches per day during the summer and fall of 1976. Evaporation rates through the surface of thick perennial salt crust were much higher. The concentration of dissolved solids in brine in the shallow-brine aquifer varies, but it generally increases from the edges of the playas toward areas of salt crust. Dissolved-solids concentration in the shallow brine ranges from less than 100,000 to more than 300,000 milligrams per liter on both playas. The increase in salinity toward areas of salt crust reflects the natural direction of brine movement through the aquifer toward the natural discharge area. On the Salt Flats, the percentages of dissolved potassium chloride and magnesium chloride in the shallow-brine aquifer generally increase from the edge of the playa to- ward the salt crust. The relative enrichment in potassium and magnesium reflects the many years of subsurface drainage toward the main discharge area (the salt crust) prior to man's withdrawal of brine. By artificially extracting brines from the carbonate muds, the percentages of potassium and magnesium have decreased while brine salinity has been maintained by re-solution of the salt crust. The configuration of the density-corrected potentiometric surface in the fall of 1976 indicates that brine in the shallow-brine aquifer under the Bonneville Racetrack was draining toward brine-collection ditches or a well field to the west. Ground-water divides have no effect on the movement of dissolved salt across the surface in wind-driven floods, and salt in surface brine was carried from the racetrack into the area of influence of the ditches by such surface movement. During 1976 on the Salt Flats, some brine was moving through the shallow-brine aquifer across lease and property boundaries. An evaluation of suggested remedial measures indicates that none will completely eliminate the conflict between uses or transform the Bonneville Salt Flats to its original state prior to man's activities in the area.

Utah↗
USGS2023

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2018

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Migration timing and tributary use of spawning flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis)

Spawning phenology and associated migrations of fishes are often regulated by factors such as temperature and stream discharge, but flow regulation of mainstem rivers coupled with climate change might disrupt these cues and affect fitness. Flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) persisting in heavily modified river networks are known to spawn in tributaries that might provide better spawning habitat than neighboring mainstem rivers subject to habitat degradation (e.g., embedded sediments, altered thermal regimes, and disconnected floodplains). Passive integrative transponder (PIT) tag data and radio telemetry were used to quantify the timing and duration of flannelmouth sucker tributary spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues in McElmo Creek, a tributary to the San Juan River in the American Southwest. We also tested the extent of the tributary migration and assessed mainstem movements prior to and following tributary migrations. Additionally, multi-year datasets of PIT detections from other tributaries in the Colorado River basin were used to quantify interannual and cross-site variation in the timing of flannelmouth sucker spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues. The arrival and residence times of fish spawning in McElmo Creek varied among years with earlier migration and a three-week increase in residence time in relatively wet years compared to drier years. Classification tree analysis suggested a combination of discharge and temperature determined arrival timing. Of fish PIT tagged in the fall, 56% tagged within 10 km of McElmo Creek spawned in the tributary the following spring, as did 60% of radio-tagged fish, with a decline in its use corresponding to increased distance of tagging location. A broader analysis of four tributaries in the Colorado River basin, including McElmo Creek, found photoperiod and temperature of tributary and mainstem rivers were the most important variables in determining migration timing, but tributary and mainstem discharge also aided in classification success. The largest tributary, the Little Colorado River, had more residential fish or fish that stayed for longer periods (median = 30 days), while McElmo Creek fish stayed an average of just 10 days in 2022. Our results generally suggest that higher discharge, across years or across sites, results in extended use of tributaries by flannelmouth suckers. Conservation actions that limit water extraction and maintain natural flow regimes in tributaries, while maintaining open connection with mainstem rivers may benefit migratory species including flannelmouth suckers.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS1963

Some climatic indicators in the period A.D. 1200-1400 in New Mexico

Three centuries before Columbus landed in America, the alluvial valleys of the south-western United States teemed with activity. The indigenous peoples had been building for 300 years a culture centred around community life based on flood-water farming and on hunting. A large number of pueblos had developed on sites earlier occupied by pit-house people. Community organization had brought advances in the ceramic and decorative arts, and changes in these artistic activities were sufficiently rapid that accurate chronologies have become available through the work of archaeologists during the twentieth century. These chronologies were at first unrelated to absolute dates, but the excavations of the 1920s at Chaco Canyon (New Mexico) provided the materials through which absolute dates could be established. This was accomplished by matching the changes in tree-ring width backward in time from living trees through successively older samples. Trees overlapping in age provided, by unique successions of distinctive tree-ring widths, a calendar by which individual logs could be dated. Beams found in the excavations at Chaco Canyon gave the first material by which the cultural developments culminating about A.D. 1300 could be dated. As a result of the time sequence provided by the tree-ring calendar, the dates within which different pottery types were developed could be accurately established. The dates of pottery types have been checked at a sufficiently large number of sites throughout the south-western United States that absolute dating of a large number of distinctive patterns can be considered unassailable. The sequence of tree-ring widths gives some climatic indications of great interest both to archaeologists and to climatologists. A relatively large number of logs spanning the period from A.D. 1200 to 1300 and, in particular, the years between 1276 and 1299, indicate that this period was generally characterized by smaller tree-ring widths than in the centuries immediately before and after. As a first approximation, the hundred years of narrow tree-ring widths were interpreted as a time of relative aridity, and have been referred to as the “Pueblo Drought”. More recent studies of tree-ring widths using sophisticated statistical techniques have thrown some doubts on any direct correlation of tree-ring widths with rainfall. Such doubts have been put forward before by Glock (1955) whose studies have been aimed at separating the various effects of seasonal occurrence of precipitation, the amount falling in various seasons, and other climatic factors in their relative influence on tree-ring widths. At present, then, tree-ring widths may be considered more satisfactory for reading chronology than for reading climate. It is this concern about direct correlation of tree-ring width with climate that led to initiation of the present study. This work is a preliminary attempt to obtain independent evidence from pollen concerning the probable nature of the vegetation and thus the climate in a period known to be characterized by narrow tree rings.

New Mexico↗
USGS2019

Ross Ice Shelf response to climate driven by the tectonic imprint on seafloor bathymetry

Ocean melting has thinned Antarctica's ice shelves at an increasing rate over the past two decades, leading to loss of grounded ice. The Ross Ice Shelf is currently close to steady state but geological records indicate that it can disintegrate rapidly, which would accelerate grounded ice loss from catchments equivalent to 11.6 m of global sea level rise. Here, we use data from the ROSETTA-Ice airborne survey and new ocean simulations, to identify the principal threats to Ross Ice Shelf stability. We locate the tectonic boundary between East and West Antarctica from magnetic anomalies and use gravity data to generate a new high-resolution map of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry. The tectonic imprint on bathymetry constrains sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation, protecting the ice shelf grounding line from moderate changes in global ocean heat content. In contrast, local, seasonal production of warm upper-ocean water near the ice front drives rapid ice shelf melting east of Ross Island, where thinning would lead to faster grounded ice loss from both East and West Antarctic ice sheets. We confirm high modelled melt rates in this region using ROSETTA-Ice radar data. Our findings highlight the significance of both the tectonic framework and local ocean-atmosphere exchange processes near the ice front in determining the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2011

Setting limits: Using air pollution thresholds to protect and restore U.S. ecosystems

More than four decades of research provide unequivocal evidence that sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury pollution have altered, and will continue to alter, our nation's lands and waters. The emission and deposition of air pollutants harm native plants and animals, degrade water quality, affect forest productivity, and are damaging to human health. Many air quality policies limit emissions at the source but these control measures do not always consider ecosystem impacts. Air pollution thresholds at which ecological effects are observed, such as critical loads, are effective tools for assessing the impacts of air pollution on essential ecosystem services and for informing public policy. U.S. ecosystems can be more effectively protected and restored by using a combination of emissions-based approaches and science-based thresholds of ecosystem damage. Based on the results of a comprehensive review of air pollution thresholds, we conclude: ??? Ecosystem services such as air and water purification, decomposition and detoxification of waste materials, climate regulation, regeneration of soil fertility, production and biodiversity maintenance, as well as crop, timber and fish supplies are impacted by deposition of nitrogen, sulfur, mercury and other pollutants. The consequences of these changes may be difficult or impossible to reverse as impacts cascade throughout affected ecosystems. ??? The effects of too much nitrogen are common across the U.S. and include altered plant and lichen communities, enhanced growth of invasive species, eutrophication and acidification of lands and waters, and habitat deterioration for native species, including endangered species. ??? Lake, stream and soil acidification is widespread across the eastern United States. Up to 65% of lakes within sensitive areas receive acid deposition that exceeds critical loads. ??? Mercury contamination adversely affects fish in many inland and coastal waters. Fish consumption advisories for mercury exist in all 50 states and on many tribal lands. High concentrations of mercury in wildlife are also widespread and have multiple adverse effects. ??? Air quality programs, such as those stemming from the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, have helped decrease air pollution even as population and energy demand have increased. Yet, they do not adequately protect ecosystems from long-term damage. Moreover they do not address ammonia emissions. ??? A stronger ecosystem basis for air pollutant policies could be established through adoption of science-based thresholds. Existing monitoring programs track vital information needed to measure the response to policies, and could be expanded to include appropriate chemical and biological indicators for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and establishment of a national ecosystem monitoring network for mercury. The development and use of air pollution thresholds for ecosystem protection and management is increasing in the United States, yet threshold approaches remain underutilized. Ecological thresholds for air pollution, such as critical loads for nitrogen and sulfur deposition, are not currently included in the formal regulatory process for emissions controls in the United States, although they are now considered in local management decisions by the National Park Service and U.S. Forest Service. Ecological thresholds offer a scientifically sound approach to protecting and restoring U.S. ecosystems and an important tool for natural resource management and policy. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Issues in Ecology↗
USGS2012

Phosphorus and groundwater: Establishing links between agricultural use and transport to streams

Phosphorus is a highly reactive element that is essential for life and forms a variety of compounds in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In water, phosphorus may be present as the orthophosphate ion (PO 4 3- ) and is also present in all life forms as an essential component of cellular material. In natural ecosystems, phosphorus is derived from the erosion of rocks and is conserved for plant growth as it is returned to the soil through animal waste and the decomposition of plant and animal tissue; but in agricultural systems, a portion of the phosphorus is removed with each harvest, especially since phosphorus is concentrated in the seeds and fruit. Phosphorus is added to soil by using chemical fertilizers, manure, and composted materials. Agricultural use of chemical phosphorus fertilizer, in the United States, in 2008 was 4,247,000 tons, which is an increase of 25 percent since 1964 (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/). Widely grown corn, soybeans, and wheat use the greatest amount of phosphorus fertilizer among agricultural crops. Phosphorus is largely retained in soil by a process called adsorption. Soils have a limited capacity to store phosphorus, and once the capacity of soil to adsorb phosphorus is exceeded, the excess will dissolve and move more freely with water either directly to a stream or downward to an aquifer. Surface-water runoff from rainstorms or excess irrigation is the primary way that phosphorus or soil containing phosphorus is transported to streams in most watersheds. There is a growing awareness that long-term over-application of manure and chemical fertilizer contributes to phosphorus movement into the groundwater system, resulting in a significant groundwater source of phosphorus to streams and lakes, as well as potential contamination of the groundwater resources. Leaching of applied fertilizer and surface runoff of phosphorus from the soil can contribute to excess growth of algae in downstream water bodies, a condition known as eutrophication. Excessive amounts of algae in eutrophic water bodies can cause large daily changes in the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water because oxygen concentrations tend to be high during daylight hours as a result of photosynthetic activity but then decrease at night. Low concentrations of dissolved oxygen can stress or kill sensitive species living in the water. This study examined concentrations and movement of phosphorus in the soils and groundwater in five agricultural settings across the United States characterized by differences in soil geochemistry, climate, irrigation usage, and cropping systems to assess potential phosphorus movement in the soil and groundwater under common agricultural conditions. The study design included assessment of a variety of agricultural practices, especially cropping patterns and irrigation, so that the factors that contribute to phosphorus movement to groundwater, or sequestration of the phosphorus to soil could be compared and examined. This type of information could potentially be used to formulate best management practices to limit the transport of phosphorus from the agricultural fields.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2013

Shallow groundwater in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska—Conceptualization and simulation of flow

The Matanuska-Susitna Valley is in the Upper Cook Inlet Basin and is currently undergoing rapid population growth outside of municipal water and sewer service areas. In response to concerns about the effects of increasing water use on future groundwater availability, a study was initiated between the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Geological Survey. The goals of the study were (1) to compile existing data and collect new data to support hydrogeologic conceptualization of the study area, and (2) to develop a groundwater flow model to simulate flow dynamics important at the regional scale. The purpose of the groundwater flow model is to provide a scientific framework for analysis of regional-scale groundwater availability. To address the first study goal, subsurface lithologic data were compiled into a database and were used to construct a regional hydrogeologic framework model describing the extent and thickness of hydrogeologic units in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. The hydrogeologic framework model synthesizes existing maps of surficial geology and conceptual geochronologies developed in the study area with the distribution of lithologies encountered in hundreds of boreholes. The geologic modeling package Geological Surveying and Investigation in Three Dimensions (GSI3D) was used to construct the hydrogeologic framework model. In addition to characterizing the hydrogeologic framework, major groundwater-budget components were quantified using several different techniques. A land-surface model known as the Deep Percolation Model was used to estimate in-place groundwater recharge across the study area. This model incorporates data on topography, soils, vegetation, and climate. Model-simulated surface runoff was consistent with observed streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated on the basis of records from major water suppliers during 2004-2010. Fluxes between groundwater and surface water were estimated during field investigations on several small streams. Regional groundwater flow patterns were characterized by synthesizing previous water-table maps with a synoptic water-level measurement conducted during 2009. Time-series water-level data were collected at groundwater and lake monitoring stations over the study period (2009–present). Comparison of historical groundwater-level records with time-series groundwater-level data collected during this study showed similar patterns in groundwater-level fluctuation in response to precipitation. Groundwater-age data collected during previous studies show that water moves quickly through the groundwater system, suggesting that the system responds quickly to changes in climate forcing. Similarly, the groundwater system quickly returns to long-term average conditions following variability due to seasonal or interannual changes in precipitation. These analyses indicate that the groundwater system is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, characterized by water-level fluctuation about a constant average state, with no long-term trends in aquifer-system storage. To address the second study goal, a steady-state groundwater flow model was developed to simulate regional groundwater flow patterns. The groundwater flow model was bounded by physically meaningful hydrologic features, and appropriate internal model boundaries were specified on the basis of conceptualization of the groundwater system resulting in a three-layer model. Calibration data included 173 water‑level measurements and 18 measurements of streamflow gains and losses along small streams. Comparison of simulated and observed heads and flows showed that the model accurately simulates important regional characteristics of the groundwater flow system. This model is therefore appropriate for studying regional-scale groundwater availability. Mismatch between model-simulated and observed hydrologic quantities is likely because of the coarse grid size of the model and seasonal transient effects. Next steps towards model refinement include the development of a transient groundwater flow model that is suitable for analysis of seasonal variability in hydraulic heads and flows. In addition, several important groundwater budget components remain poorly quantified—including groundwater outflow to the Matanuska River, Little Susitna River, and Knik Arm.

Alaska↗
USGS1956

Sedimentation and chemical quality of surface waters in the Wind River basin, Wyoming

This report gives results of an investigation by the U. S. Geological Survey of chemical quality of surface waters and sedimentation in the Wind River Basin, Wyo. The sedimentation study was begun in 1946 to determine the quantity of sediment that is transported by the streams in the basin; the probable sources of the sediment; the effect of large irrigation projects on sediment yield, particularly along Fivemile Creek; and the probable specific weight of the sediment when initially deposited in a reservoir. The study of the chemical quality of the water was begun in 1945 to obtain information on the sources, nature, and amounts of dissolved material that is transported by streams and on the suitability of the waters for different uses. Phases of geology and hydrology pertinent to the sedimentation and chemical quality were studied. Results of the investigation through September 30, 1952, and some special studies that were made during the 1953 and 1954 water years are reported. The rocks in the Wind River Basin are granite, schist, and gneiss of Precambrian age and a thick series of sedimentary strata that range in age from Cambrian to Recent. Rocks of Precambrian and Paleozoic age are confined to the mountains, rocks of Mesozoic age crop out along the flank of the Wind River and Owl Creek Mountains and in denuded anticlines in the floor of the basin, and rocks of Tertiary age cover the greater part of the floor of the basin. Deposits of debris from glaciers are in the mountains, and remnants of gravel-capped terraces of Pleistocene age are on the floor of the basin. The lateral extent and depth of alluvial deposits of Recent age along all the streams are highly variable. The climate of the floor of the basin is arid. The foothills probably receive a greater amount of intense rainfall than the areas at lower altitudes. Most precipitation in the Wind River Mountains falls as snow. The foothill sections, in general, are transitional zones between the cold, humid climate of the high mountains and the warmer, drier climate of the basin floor. Average annual runoff in the basin is about 3.6 inches on the basis of adjusted streamflow records for the Bighorn River near Thermopolis. Runoff from the mountains is high and is mostly from melting of snow and from spring and early summer rains. It does not vary greatly from year to year because annual water losses are small in comparison to annual precipitation. In the areas on the floor of the basin, where runoff is low, the runoff is mostly the result of storms in late spring and early summer. The annual water losses nearly equal the annual precipitation; therefore, runoff is extremely variable, in terms of percentage changes, from year to year and from point to point during any 1 year.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS1995

Large-scale atmospheric forcing of recent trends toward early snowmelt runoff in California

Since the late 1940s, snowmelt and runoff have come increasingly early in the water year in many basins in northern and central California. This subtle trend is most pronounced in moderate-altitude basins, which are sensitive to changes in mean winter temperatures. Such basins have broad areas in which winter temperatures are near enough to freezing that small increases result initially in the formation of less snow and eventually in early snowmelt. In moderate-altitude basins of California, a declining fraction of the annual runoff has come in April–June. This decline has been compensated by increased fractions of runoff at other, mostly earlier, times in the water year. Weather stations in central California, including the central Sierra Nevada, have shown trends toward warmer winters since the 1940s. A series of regression analyses indicate that runoff timing responds equally to the observed decadal-scale trends in winter temperature and interannual temperature variations of the same magnitude, suggesting that the temperature trend is sufficient to explain the runoff-timing trends. The immediate cause of the trend toward warmer winters in California is a concurrent, long-term fluctuation in winter atmospheric circulations over the North Pacific Ocean and North America that is not immediately distinguishable from natural atmospheric variability. The fluctuation began to affect California in the 1940s, when the region of strongest low-frequency variation of winter circulations shifted to a part of the central North Pacific Ocean that is teleconnected to California temperatures. Since the late 1940s, winter wind fields have been displaced progressively southward over the central North Pacific and northward over the west coast of North America. These shifts in atmospheric circulations are associated with concurrent shifts in both West Coast air temperatures and North Pacific sea surface temperatures.

California↗
USGS2015

Spatial and temporal variation in marine birds in the north Gulf of Alaska: The value of marine bird monitoring within Gulf Watch Alaska

Birds offer useful insights into marine ecosystems. Marine birds are responsive to spatial and temporal variation in the environment, that often originates with fluctuations in oceanographic and climatic drivers and permeates up through food webs to conspicuous top predators such as seabirds (Coyle and Pinchuk 2005, Speckman et al. 2005, Gonzales-Solis et al. 2009, Cushing et al., this report). In that way, marine birds are excellent assimilators, samplers, and indicators of the status of marine environments (Montevecchi 1993, Piatt et al. 2007b, Zador et al. 2013). Marine bird responses to dynamic marine ecosystems can be detected in a variety of metrics, including abundance, distribution, and productivity. For example, in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA), decadal-scale variation in oceanographic conditions has been associated with dramatic shifts in prey composition and abundance (Anderson and Piatt 1999). In turn, these shifts were more closely correlated with changes in abundance of fish-eating birds of Prince William Sound (PWS), such as pigeon guillemots (Golet et al. 2002) and marbled and Kittlitz’s murrelets (Kuletz et al. 2011a, 2011b), than in the abundance of species that primarily consume plankton or benthic prey (Agler et al. 1999, Cushing et al., this report). Birds also are responsive to anthropogenic influences in marine environments, including commercial fishing, contamination, introduction of non-native species, coastal development, offshore resource extraction, and vessel traffic. A major anthropogenic perturbation in the northern GOA was the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, in which marine birds suffered high immediate mortality (Piatt and Ford 1996). Additionally, several species showed long-term evidence of declines in the oiled areas of PWS (Lance et al. 2001), as well as impacts to reproductive success years later (Golet et al. 2002). However, the degree of direct impact and vulnerability to chronic injury, which was related to exposure to lingering oil, varied widely among species (see Esler et al., this report). Research and monitoring directed at documenting the timelines and mechanisms of wildlife recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill led to an unprecedented understanding of oil spill effects on marine birds, as well as previously unknown information about marine bird ecology in the northern GOA. Quantifying effects of anthropogenic influences requires an understanding of variation in marine bird abundance, distribution, and productivity, in relation to naturally occurring dynamics in marine environments continued marine bird work as part of Gulf Watch Alaska will facilitate this. In addition to their value as indicators of marine conditions and anthropogenic influences, marine birds are protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act and are managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Marine birds have high societal value from a wide variety of interests (e.g., tourism, bird watching, hunting, mythology), and are an important source of subsistence foods in Alaska (Naves and Braem 2014). Because of the conservation interest in marine birds, as well as their value for indicating the status of marine ecosystems, monitoring of marine birds is an important component of many ocean monitoring programs, including Gulf Watch Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event - Marine Isotope Stage M2

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58 Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature of warm climates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~ 3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausible M2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude the possibility of the existence of larger ice masses during M2 in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant ice masses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2003

Ground-water resources of Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

Saipan has an area of 48 mi 2 and is the largest of the 14 islands in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). The island is formed by volcanic rocks overlain by younger limestones. The island is situated in the western Pacific Ocean at latitude 15 o 12'N and longitude 145 o 45'E, about 3,740 mi west-southwest of Honolulu and midway between Japan and New Guinea (fig. 1). The climate on Saipan is classified as tropical marine with an average temperature of 80 o F. The natural beauty of the island and surrounding waters are the basis for a growing tourist-based economy. The resulting rapid development and increases in resident and tourist populations have added stresses to the island's limited water supplies. Freshwater resources on Saipan are not readily observable because, aside from the abundant rainfall, most freshwater occurs as ground water. Fresh ground water is found in aquifers composed mainly of fragmental limestones. About 90 percent of the municipal water supply comes from 140 shallow wells that withdraw about 11 Mgal/d. The chloride concentration of water withdrawn from production wells ranges from less than 100 mg/L for wells in the Akgak and Capital Hill well fields, to over 2,000 mg/L from wells in the Puerto Rico, Maui IV, and Marpi Quarry well fields. The chloride concentrations and rates of ground-water production are not currently adequate for providing island residents with a potable 24-hour water supply and future demands are expected to be higher. To better understand the ground-water resources of the island, and water resources on tropical islands in general, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a cooperative program with the Commonwealth Utilities Corporation (CUC). The objective of the program, initiated in 1989, is to assess the ground-water resources of Saipan and to make hydrologic information available to the CUC in support of their ongoing efforts to improve the quality and quantity of the municipal water supply. This report presents some of the results of the program including descriptions of (1) the geography and geology, (2) the occurrence of fresh ground water in permeable limestones that extend to some distance below sea level where water-level elevation is affected by ocean tides (coastal aquifers) and in limestones that overlie volcanic basement rocks above sea level (high-level aquifers), (3) the water-table configuration and directions of ground-water flow, and (4) the rainfall, ground-water withdrawal, and chloride concentrations in well water. Also described is the relation of the changes in water-table elevations to changes in sea level, rainfall, and ground-water withdrawal.

Saipan↗
USGS2003

Assessment of selected inorganic constituents in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area, Arizona and northern Mexico, through 1998

Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations from data collected by the National Water-Quality Assessment and other U.S. Geological Survey water-quality programs were analyzed to (1) assess water quality, (2) determine natural and human factors affecting water quality, and (3) compute stream loads for the surface-water resources in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Stream temperature, pH, dissolved-oxygen concentration and percent saturation, and dissolved-solids, suspended-sediment, and nutrient concentration data collected at 41 stream-water quality monitoring stations through water year 1998 were used in this assessment. Water-quality standards applicable to the stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentration data for the stations investigated in this study generally were met, although there were some exceedences. In a few samples from the White River, the Black River, and the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam, the pH in reaches designated as a domestic drinking water source was higher than the State of Arizona standard. More than half of the samples from the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and almost all of the samples from the stations on the Central Arizona Project Canal—two of the three most important surface-water sources used for drinking water in the Central Arizona Basins study area—exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for dissolved solids. Two reach-specific standards for nutrients established by the State of Arizona were exceeded many times: (1) the annual mean concentration of total phosphorus was exceeded during several years at stations on the main stems of the Salt and Verde Rivers, and (2) the annual mean concentration of total nitrogen was exceeded during several years at the Salt River near Roosevelt and at the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam. Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were related to streamflow, season, water management, stream permanence, and land and water use. Dissolved-oxygen percent saturation, pH, and nutrient concentrations were dependent on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Seasonality and correlation with streamflow were dependant on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Temporal trends in streamflow, stream properties, and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were common in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Temporal trends in the streamflow of unregulated perennial reaches in the Central Highlands tended to be higher from 1900 through the 1930s, lower from the 1940s through the 1970s, and high again after the 1970s. This is similar to the pattern observed for the mean annual precipitation for the Southwestern United States and indicates long-term trends in flow of streams draining the Central Highlands were driven by long-term trends in climate. Streamflow increased over the period of record at stations on effluent-dependent reaches as a result of the increase in the urban population and associated wastewater returns to the Salt and Gila Rivers in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the Santa Cruz River in the Tucson metropolitan area. Concentrations of dissolved solids decreased in the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and in the Verde River below Bartlett Dam. This decrease represents an improvement in the water quality and resulted from a concurrent increase in the amount of runoff entering the reservoirs. Stream loads of water-chemistry constituents were compared at different locations along the streams with one another, and stream loads were compared to upstream inputs of the constituent from natural and anthropogenic sources to determine the relative importance of different sources and to determine the fate of the water-chemistry constituent. Of the dissolved solids transported into the Basin and Range Lowlands each year from the Central Arizona Project Canal and from streams draining the Central Highlands, about 1.2 billion kilograms accumulated in the soil, unsaturated zone, and aquifers in agricultural and urban areas as a result of irrigating crops and urban vegetation. Stream loads of phosphorus decreased from the 91st Avenue Wastewater-Treatment Plant downstream to the Gila River at Gillespie Dam, probably as a result of adsorption of phosphorus to the streambed sediments. In this same reach, stream loads of nitrogen increased, most likely because of inputs from fertilizers. The annual mass of nitrogen and phosphorus input to developed basins from quantifiable sources was much larger than the mass input to basins that had little or no municipal or agricul-tural development. These computed inputs exclude the mass of nitrogen and phosphorus from sources such as geologic formations and soils that could not be quantified. The quantifiable annual inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus for the upper Salt River Basin and the upper Verde River Basin were similar to those for the West Clear Creek Basin. This similarity suggests that the small amount of municipal and agricultural development in the upper Salt River and the upper Verde River Basins did not greatly change the basin input flux. For basins with minimal urban and agricultural development, the largest quantifiable source of nitrogen was precipitation, and the largest source of phosphorus was human bodily waste treated by sewer and septic systems. This was in contrast to developed basins, for which fertilizer was the largest quantifiable source of both nutrients. For most basins examined, quantifiable inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from nonpoint sources were greater than inputs from point sources. This relation emphasizes the importance of land- and water-management policies that protect surface-water resources from nonpoint sources of nutrients as well as from point sources. The amount of nitrogen and phosphorus transpor-ted out of basins was a small fraction of the total for the quantifiable inputs. This result indicated that most of the nutrients input to basins were not transported out of the basins in surface water, but rather were transported to the subsurface (the soil, unsaturated zone, or aquifer), released to the atmosphere (such as volatilized ammonia), or incorporated into the biomass.

Central Arizona Basins study area↗
USGS2008

PFReports: A program for systematic checking of annual peaks in NWISWeb

The accuracy, characterization, and completeness of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) peak-flow data drive the determination of flood-frequency estimates that are used daily to design water and transportation infrastructure, delineate flood-plain boundaries, and regulate development and utilization of lands throughout the Nation and are essential to understanding the implications of climate change on flooding. Indeed, this high-profile database reflects and highlights the quality of USGS water-data collection programs. Its extension and improvement are essential to efforts to strengthen USGS networks and science leadership and is worthy of the attention of Water Science Center (WSC) hydrographers. This document describes a computer program, PFReports, and its output that facilitates efficient and robust review and correction of data in the USGS Peak Flow File (PFF) hosted as part of NWISWeb (the USGS public Web interface to much of the data stored and managed within the National Water Information System or NWIS). Checks embedded in the program are recommended as part of a more comprehensive assessment of peak flow data that will eventually include examination of possible regional changes, seasonal changes, and decadal variations in magnitude, timing, and frequency. Just as important as the comprehensive assessment, cleaning up the database will increase the likelihood of improved WSC regional flood-frequency equations. As an example of the value of cleaning up the PFF, data for 26,921 sites in the PFF were obtained. Of those sites, 17,542 sites had peak streamflow values and daily values. For the 17,542 sites, 1,097 peaks were identified that were less than the daily value for the day on which the peak occurred. Of the 26,921 sites, 11,643 had peak streamflow values, concurrent daily values, and at least 10 peaks. At the 11,643 sites, 2,205 peaks were identified as potential outliers in a regression of peak streamflows on daily values. Previous efforts to identify problems with the PFF were time consuming, laborious, and often ineffective. This new suite of checks represents an effort to automate identification of specific problems without plotting or printing large amounts of data that may not have problems. In addition, the results of the checks of the peak flow files are delivered through the World Wide Web with links to individual reports so that WSCs can focus on specific problems in an organized and standardized fashion. Over the years, technical reviews, regional-flood studies, and user inquiries have identified many minor and some major problems in the PFF. However, the cumbersome nature of the PFF editor and a lack of analytical tools have hampered efforts at quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) and subsequently to make needed revisions to the database. This document is organized to provide information regarding PFReports, especially those tests involving regression and to provide an overview of the review procedures for utilizing the output. It also may be used as a reference for the data qualification codes and abbreviations for the tests. Results of the checks for all peak flow files (March 2008) are available at http://nd.water.usgs.gov/internal/pfreports/.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Unforeseen plant phenotypic diversity in a dry and grazed world

Earth harbours an extraordinary plant phenotypic diversity 1 that is at risk from ongoing global changes 2 , 3 . However, it remains unknown how increasing aridity and livestock grazing pressure—two major drivers of global change 4 , 5 , 6 —shape the trait covariation that underlies plant phenotypic diversity 1 , 7 . Here we assessed how covariation among 20 chemical and morphological traits responds to aridity and grazing pressure within global drylands. Our analysis involved 133,769 trait measurements spanning 1,347 observations of 301 perennial plant species surveyed across 326 plots from 6 continents. Crossing an aridity threshold of approximately 0.7 (close to the transition between semi-arid and arid zones) led to an unexpected 88% increase in trait diversity. This threshold appeared in the presence of grazers, and moved toward lower aridity levels with increasing grazing pressure. Moreover, 57% of observed trait diversity occurred only in the most arid and grazed drylands, highlighting the phenotypic uniqueness of these extreme environments. Our work indicates that drylands act as a global reservoir of plant phenotypic diversity and challenge the pervasive view that harsh environmental conditions reduce plant trait diversity 8 , 9 , 10 . They also highlight that many alternative strategies may enable plants to cope with increases in environmental stress induced by climate change and land-use intensification.

Nature↗