Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Mariana Garcia Criado; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Anne Bjorkman; Signe Normand; Anne Blach-Overgaard; Haydn J. D. Thomas; Anu Eskelinen; Konsta Happonen; Juha Alatalo; Alba Anadon-Rosell; Isabelle Aubin; Mariska te Beest; Katlyn R. Betway-May; Daan Blok; Allan Buras; Bruno E. L. Cerabolini; Katherine S. Christie; J. Hans C. Cornelissen; Bruce C. Forbes; Esther R. Frei; Paul Grogan; Luise Hermanutz; Robert D. Hollister; James Hudson; Maitane Iturrate-Garcia; Elina Kaarlejarvi; Michael Kleyer; Laurent J. Lamarque; Jonas J. Lembrechts; Esther Levesque; Miska Luoto; Petr Macek; Jeremy May; Janet S. Prevéy; Gabriela Schaepman-Strub; Serge N. Sheremetiev; Laura Siegwart Collier; Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia; Andrew Trant; Susanna E. Venn; Anna-Maria Virkkala

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4

Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70248113

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Explore related subjects

Nature Communications Article

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Mariana Garcia Criado, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Anne Bjorkman, Signe Normand, Anne Blach-Overgaard, Haydn J. D. Thomas, Anu Eskelinen, Konsta Happonen, Juha Alatalo, Alba Anadon-Rosell, Isabelle Aubin, Mariska te Beest, Katlyn R. Betway-May, Daan Blok, Allan Buras, Bruno E. L. Cerabolini, Katherine S. Christie, J. Hans C. Cornelissen, Bruce C. Forbes, Esther R. Frei, Paul Grogan, Luise Hermanutz, Robert D. Hollister, James Hudson, Maitane Iturrate-Garcia, Elina Kaarlejarvi, Michael Kleyer, Laurent J. Lamarque, Jonas J. Lembrechts, Esther Levesque, Miska Luoto, Petr Macek, Jeremy May, Janet S. Prevéy, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub, Serge N. Sheremetiev, Laura Siegwart Collier, Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia, Andrew Trant, Susanna E. Venn, Anna-Maria Virkkala. 2023-06-28. Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

The saline groundwater legacy of a large buried coastal paleo-estuary

Elevated groundwater salinity in coastal regions threatens the beneficial use of fresh groundwater. Coastal groundwater management typically focuses on preventing intrusion from modern sources of seawater; however, past geological processes can also leave a legacy of saline groundwater now hidden in the subsurface. Here, multiple extensive airborne electromagnetic surveys provide detailed evidence of residual salinity from a paleo-estuary filling a late Pleistocene incised valley impacting more than 10,000 km 2 that is now hidden beneath coastal Louisiana’s deltaic plain. Our results show that the three-dimensional pattern of saline groundwater beneath Louisiana mimics that of near-surface aquifers surrounding the modern Delaware Bay estuary, fingerprinting the signature of the past drowning of a large, incised valley of the Mississippi River following post-glacial sea-level rise. These findings demonstrate a new framework for understanding legacy sources of saltwater critical for managing stressed water resources along global coastlines.

Louisiana↗

USGS2026

Previous prescribed burns saved thousands of ancient sequoias during historically unprecedented wildfires

Wildfires in California’s Sierra Nevada during 2020–2021 killed giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) at rates unseen for millennia, underscoring the vulnerability of highly fire-adapted trees to ongoing environmental change. Following a century of fire exclusion and fuel accumulation, the effectiveness of prescribed burns in reducing giant sequoia mortality from wildfire remained poorly quantified. Here we estimate mortality outcomes for 26,403 giant sequoias across 19 groves in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks following the Castle (2020) and KNP Complex (2021) wildfires using a Bayesian framework. We map tree mortality using a deep learning classifier integrating 3 m PlanetScope imagery, airborne lidar, and field observations. From an estimated 7,974 sequoia deaths (95% Bayesian credible interval (CI): 7,555–8,430), corresponding to 30.2% mortality (CI: 28.6–31.9%), we find previous prescribed burns (≤10 years prior) reduced mortality odds by 77% (CI: 69–83%), making treated trees nearly four times more likely to survive. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prescribed burns prevented at least 1,888 (CI: 1,487–2,302) deaths, and universal treatment would have saved an additional 3,888 (CI: 3,236–4,580) giant sequoias. These results show that prescribed burns substantially improve survival during extreme wildfires, offering guidance for conserving long-lived, fire-adapted forests under intensifying fire regimes.

California↗

USGS2026

Tectonically driven integration of the 4.8 Ma Colorado River USA tracked with detrital sanidine and fish genetics

The development of the continental-scale Colorado River system, western USA, from 8 to 4.8 Ma, is revealed using 60-40 Ma detrital sanidine tracer grains and fish phylogeny. Here we show that precursor paleoriver segments became integrated north to south as traced by 60-40 Ma sand grains that were derived from the north and sequentially appeared in the 25-8 Ma Browns Park Formation of Utah, 7-6 Ma upper Bidahochi Formation of Arizona, and 4.8 Ma Bouse Formation of the lower Colorado River and proto Gulf of California. This timing is mimicked by molecular clock estimates of divergence times among fish lineages. River integration was a response to headwater uplifts in the Yellowstone hotspot track and Rocky Mountains. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages refine the timing for mantle-drips that caused subsidence, then uplift, of depositional basins that influenced the integration pathway and tempo. The ~ 3-million-year timescale suggests that multiscale mantle-driven uplift, rather than lake spillover, was the primary driver for integration of the proto-Colorado River through Grand Canyon.

Colorado River↗