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At least 1,639 records · Page 91Linked to original sources
USGS2011

The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze

In this paper we examine the variations of the boreal summer season sea breeze circulation along the Florida panhandle coast from relatively high resolution (10 km) regional climate model integrations. The 23 year climatology (1979–2001) of the multidecadal dynamically downscaled simulations forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP‐DOE) Reanalysis II at the lateral boundaries verify quite well with the observed climatology. The variations at diurnal and interannual time scales are also well simulated with respect to the observations. We show from composite analyses made from these downscaled simulations that sea breezes in northwestern Florida are associated with changes in the size of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on interannual time scales. In large AWP years when the North Atlantic Subtropical High becomes weaker and moves further eastward relative to the small AWP years, a large part of the southeast U.S. including Florida comes under the influence of relatively strong anomalous low‐level northerly flow and large‐scale subsidence consistent with the theory of the Sverdrup balance. This tends to suppress the diurnal convection over the Florida panhandle coast in large AWP years. This study is also an illustration of the benefit of dynamic downscaling in understanding the low‐frequency variations of the sea breeze.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Sources and physical processes responsible for OH/H2O in the lunarsoil as revealed by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3)

Analysis of two absorption features near 3 μ m in the lunar reflectance spectrum, observed by the orbiting M 3 spectrometer and interpreted as being due to OH and H 2 O, is presented, and the results are used to discuss the processes producing these molecules. This analysis focuses on the dependence of the absorptions on lunar physical properties, including composition, illumination, latitude, and temperature. Solar wind proton-induced hydroxylation is proposed as the creation process, and its products could be a source for other reported types of hydrogen-rich material and water. The irregular and damaged fine-grained lunar soil seems especially adapted for trapping solar wind protons and forming OH owing to abundant dangling oxygen bonds. The M 3 data reveal that the strengths of the two absorptions are correlated and widespread, and both are correlated with lunar composition but in different ways. Feldspathic material seems richer in OH. These results seem to rule out water from the lunar interior and cometary infall as major sources. There appear to be correlations of apparent band strengths with time of day and lighting conditions. However, thermal emission from the Moon reduces the apparent strengths of the M 3 absorptions, and its removal is not yet completely successful. Further, many of the lunar physical properties are themselves intercorrelated, and so separating these dependencies on the absorptions is difficult, due to the incomplete M 3 data set. This process should also operate on other airless silicate surfaces, such as Mercury and Vesta, which will be visited by the Dawn spacecraft in mid-2011.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983–1987, 1991–1997, and 2000–2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO 4 ), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual “boomerang” pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2011

Direction of unsaturated flow in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope

The distribution of soil moisture in a homogeneous and isotropic hillslope is a transient, variably saturated physical process controlled by rainfall characteristics, hillslope geometry, and the hydrological properties of the hillslope materials. The major driving mechanisms for moisture movement are gravity and gradients in matric potential. The latter is solely controlled by gradients of moisture content. In a homogeneous and isotropic saturated hillslope, absent a gradient in moisture content and under the driving force of gravity with a constant pressure boundary at the slope surface, flow is always in the lateral downslope direction, under either transient or steady state conditions. However, under variably saturated conditions, both gravity and moisture content gradients drive fluid motion, leading to complex flow patterns. In general, the flow field near the ground surface is variably saturated and transient, and the direction of flow could be laterally downslope, laterally upslope, or vertically downward. Previous work has suggested that prevailing rainfall conditions are sufficient to completely control these flow regimes. This work, however, shows that under time-varying rainfall conditions, vertical, downslope, and upslope lateral flow can concurrently occur at different depths and locations within the hillslope. More importantly, we show that the state of wetting or drying in a hillslope defines the temporal and spatial regimes of flow and when and where laterally downslope and/or laterally upslope flow occurs.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2011

Formation dynamics of subsurface hydrocarbon intrusions following the Deepwater Horizon blowout

Hydrocarbons released following the Deepwater Horizon (DH) blowout were found in deep, subsurface horizontal intrusions, yet there has been little discussion about how these intrusions formed. We have combined measured (or estimated) observations from the DH release with empirical relationships developed from previous lab experiments to identify the mechanisms responsible for intrusion formation and to characterize the DH plume. Results indicate that the intrusions originate from a stratification‐dominated multiphase plume characterized by multiple subsurface intrusions containing dissolved gas and oil along with small droplets of liquid oil. Unlike earlier lab measurements, where the potential density in ambient water decreased linearly with elevation, at the DH site it varied quadratically. We have modified our method for estimating intrusion elevation under these conditions and the resulting estimates agree with observations that the majority of the hydrocarbons were found between 800 and 1200 m.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2011

Exchange of Groundwater and Surface-Water Mediated by Permafrost Response to Seasonal and Long Term Air Temperature Variation

Permafrost dynamics impact hydrologic cycle processes by promoting or impeding groundwater and surface water exchange. Under seasonal and decadal air temperature variations, permafrost temperature changes control the exchanges between groundwater and surface water. A coupled heat transport and groundwater flow model, SUTRA, was modified to simulate groundwater flow and heat transport in the subsurface containing permafrost. The northern central Tibet Plateau was used as an example of model application. Modeling results show that in a yearly cycle, groundwater flow occurs in the active layer from May to October. Maximum groundwater discharge to the surface lags the maximum subsurface temperature by two months. Under an increasing air temperature scenario of 3?C per 100 years, over the initial 40-year period, the active layer thickness can increase by three-fold. Annual groundwater discharge to the surface can experience a similar three-fold increase in the same period. An implication of these modeling results is that with increased warming there will be more groundwater flow in the active layer and therefore increased groundwater discharge to rivers. However, this finding only holds if sufficient upgradient water is available to replenish the increased discharge. Otherwise, there will be an overall lowering of the water table in the recharge portion of the catchment.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2011

Constraints on the long‐period moment‐dip tradeoff for the Tohoku earthquake

Since the work of Kanamori and Given (1981), it has been recognized that shallow, pure dip‐slip earthquakes excite long‐period surface waves such that it is difficult to independently constrain the moment ( M 0 ) and the dip ( δ ) of the source mechanism, with only the product M 0 sin(2 δ ) being well constrained. Because of this, it is often assumed that the primary discrepancies between the moments of shallow, thrust earthquakes are due to this moment‐dip tradeoff. In this work, we quantify how severe this moment‐dip tradeoff is depending on the depth of the earthquake, the station distribution, the closeness of the mechanism to pure dip‐slip, and the quality of the data. We find that both long‐period Rayleigh and Love wave modes have moment‐dip resolving power even for shallow events, especially when stations are close to certain azimuths with respect to mechanism strike and when source depth is well determined. We apply these results to USGS W phase inversions of the recent M9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and estimate the likely uncertainties in dip and moment associated with the moment‐ dip tradeoff. After discussing some of the important sources of moment and dip error, we suggest two methods for potentially improving this uncertainty.

Tohoku↗
USGS2011

Quantifying the influence of sea ice on ocean microseism using observations from the Bering Sea, Alaska

Microseism is potentially affected by all processes that alter ocean wave heights. Because strong sea ice prevents large ocean waves from forming, sea ice can therefore significantly affect microseism amplitudes. Here we show that this link between sea ice and microseism is not only a robust one but can be quantified. In particular, we show that 75–90% of the variability in microseism power in the Bering Sea can be predicted using a fairly crude model of microseism damping by sea ice. The success of this simple parameterization suggests that an even stronger link can be established between the mechanical strength of sea ice and microseism power, and that microseism can eventually be used to monitor the strength of sea ice, a quantity that is not as easily observed through other means.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Wave-current interaction in Willapa Bay

This paper describes the importance of wave-current interaction in an inlet-estuary system. The three-dimensional, fully coupled, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system was applied in Willapa Bay (Washington State) from 22 to 29 October 1998 that included a large storm event. To represent the interaction between waves and currents, the vortex-force method was used. Model results were compared with water elevations, currents, and wave measurements obtained by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. In general, a good agreement between field data and computed results was achieved, although some discrepancies were also observed in regard to wave peak directions in the most upstream station. Several numerical experiments that considered different forcing terms were run in order to identify the effects of each wind, tide, and wave-current interaction process. Comparison of the horizontal momentum balances results identified that wave-breaking-induced acceleration is one of the leading terms in the inlet area. The enhancement of the apparent bed roughness caused by waves also affected the values and distribution of the bottom shear stress. The pressure gradient showed significant changes with respect to the pure tidal case. During storm conditions the momentum balance in the inlet shares the characteristics of tidal-dominated and wave-dominated surf zone environments. The changes in the momentum balance caused by waves were manifested both in water level and current variations. The most relevant effect on hydrodynamics was a wave-induced setup in the inner part of the estuary.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

One hundred years of volcano monitoring in Hawaii

In 2012 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), the oldest of five volcano observatories in the United States, is commemorating the 100th anniversary of its founding. HVO's location, on the rim of Kilauea volcano (Figure 1)—one of the most active volcanoes on Earth—has provided an unprecedented opportunity over the past century to study processes associated with active volcanism and develop methods for hazards assessment and mitigation. The scientifically and societally important results that have come from 100 years of HVO's existence are the realization of one man's vision of the best way to protect humanity from natural disasters. That vision was a response to an unusually destructive decade that began the twentieth century, a decade that saw almost 200,000 people killed by the effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2019

Induced seismicity reduces seismic hazard?

Earthquakes caused by human activities have been observed for decades. Often these are related to industrial activities pumping fluids into deep geologic formations, like with wastewater disposal. The simplest theory connecting these processes to earthquakes is straightforward: injection leads to fluid pressure changes that either reduce the strength of preexisting faults or generate new faults. In practice, the conditions that lead to induced earthquakes are not always clear in ways that can be generalized. Kao et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079288) show how the distribution of induced earthquakes in Western Canada relate to natural rates of deformation in the crust. Using these new results, they discuss an intriguing paradox: induced seismicity can cause short-term increases in the seismic hazard that are followed by a period of reduced seismic hazard. Such hazard-reducing scenarios are plausible but hinge upon simplifying assumptions about how the crust stores and releases strain energy in the form of earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Coastal wetland resilience, accelerated sea-level rise, and the importance of timescale

Recent studies have produced conflicting results as to whether coastal wetlands can keep up with present‐day and future sea‐level rise. The stratigraphic record shows that threshold rates for coastal wetland submergence or retreat are lower than what instrumental records suggest, with wetland extent that shrinks considerably under high rates of sea‐level rise. These apparent conflicts can be reconciled by recognizing that many coastal wetlands still possess sufficient elevation capital to cope with sea‐level rise, and that processes like sediment compaction, ponding, and wave erosion require multidecadal or longer timescales to drive wetland loss that is in many cases inevitable.

AGU Advances↗
USGS2020

Step increase in eastern U.S. precipitation linked to Indian Ocean warming

A step increase in annual precipitation over the eastern U.S. in the early 1970’s commenced five decades of invigorated hydroclimate, with ongoing impacts on streamflow and water resources. Despite its far-reaching impacts, the dynamical origin of this change is unknown. Here, analyses of a century of atmospheric and oceanic data trace the dynamics to changes in the Indian Ocean. Spring and fall precipitation explain more than half the annual eastern-U.S. precipitation variance over the century, and changes in fall are predominantly responsible for the step increase. The driving mechanism is emergence of a pan-Pacific atmospheric wave emanating from deep convection over the warming Indian Ocean. Documentation of this fall teleconnection draws attention to projected anthropogenic increases in tropical oceanic heat content, and their potential impacts on hydroclimate of the midlatitudes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Airborne dust plumes lofted by dislodged ice blocks at Russell Crater, Mars

Linear dune gullies on poleward-facing Martian slopes are enigmatic. Formation by CO 2 -ice block or snow cornice falls has been proposed based on optical imagery of bright, high-albedo features inside gully channels. Because these features often resemble patchy frost residue rather than three-dimensional blocks, more evidence is needed to support the ice-block formation mechanism. Satellite imagery captured two simultaneous airborne plumes with in-channel sources at the Russell crater megadune, thrust up, and dispersed outward along the path of linear dune gullies. We use spectral data analyses, climatic analyses of bolometric temperatures, and thermal modeling to further develop the mechanistic framework for linear dune gully development. Basal sublimation and CO 2 gas venting likely cause CO 2 -ice-block detachment and falls from gully alcoves in southern early spring, accompanied by ice-block off-gassing and saltation of sands and coarse silts that are redeposited around gully channels, and lofting of sublimation lag (coarse dust/silt) into airborne plumes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2023

Correction to “The March 1940 superstorm: Geoelectromagnetic hazards and impacts on American communication and power systems”

In Love et al. (2023), 5 estimated geopotentials on long lines for the March 1989 storm are incorrect. This was the result of incorrect calculation of line integrals. This error affects the two paragraphs of Section 11 and Figure 10 of that paper. The most significant impact of this error is that we overestimated the average ratio of the geopotentials measured the long lines during the March 1940 storm to the estimated geopotentials for the March 1989 storm. Instead of being a factor of 9 higher, the average ratio is only 9% higher. This means the inductive geoeffectiveness of the March 1940 storm was comparable to, or just slightly greater than, the geoeffectiveness of the March 1989 storm. Corrected paragraphs and a corrected figure are provided here.

Space Weather↗
USGS2026

Predicting Minnesota lake ice phenology with deep learning, explainable methods, and a physically based benchmark, 1980-2018

Globally, lakes are losing ice cover, but our understanding of the rates and variability of change are biased toward few lakes with long-term records. Recent works have used remote sensing and predictive modeling to supplement the observational record, but these approaches produce large errors when estimating ice phenology for individual lakes. Accurate, lake-specific estimates of ice formation and breakup through time are important for estimating variability in ice loss across heterogenous lakes and for understanding broader implications. This work explores machine learning (ML) approaches for hindcasting ice phenology using observations from 1980 to 2018 across 625 Minnesota lakes, covering 4359 lake-years of record. We used daily weather and static lake attributes to develop 60 neural networks for hindcasting lake ice time series. We considered LSTMs and attention-based transformers of varying size and initial parameters. We found that the largest LSTM performed most accurately on withheld data, and on a test set of unseen years and lakes, it outperformed a state-of-the-art physically based model in daily accuracy (97% vs. 95%), year-level metrics (RMSE for ice formation = 6.9 vs. 13.2 days; ice breakup = 7.5 vs. 12.2 days; ice duration = 9.6 vs. 13.7 days), and estimating loss of ice cover from 1980 to 2018 (observed = 8.4 days, LSTM = 7.2 days, GLM = 3.4 days). This demonstrates that ML can estimate historical lake ice formation and breakup dates within a week of observed phenology across heterogeneous lakes and recreate broad scale trends in ice cover phenology with limited long-term ice records.

Minnesota↗
USGS2011

Magmatic heat and the El Niño cycle

Large submarine lava flows with apparent volumes exceeding 10 km 3 have recently been imaged on the deep ocean floor in various parts of the Pacific by means of GLORIA and SeaMarc side‐looking sonar surveys. Such flows may produce thermal anomalies large enough to perturb the cyclic processes of the ocean and could be a factor in the genesis of El Niño phenomena. We find that known volume rates of mid‐ocean magma production could generate repetitive thermal anomalies as large as 10% of the average El Niño sea surface anomaly at intervals of about 5 years (the mean interval of El Niño events between 1935 and 1984). Likewise, estimated rates of eruption, cooling of lava on the seafloor, and transfer of heat to the near‐surface environment could reasonably produce a thermal anomaly comparable to that associated with El Niño. Larger magmatic events, associated with fluctuations in the total magmatic power and seismicity along the East Pacific Rise, are possible at longer intervals and may explain the extreme size of some El Niño events, such as that of 1982–1983. ©1988. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗