USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Growth”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Flow ecology of invasive suckermouth catfish in urbanized ridge-to-reef systems on O’ahu, Hawai’i

Introduction: The effects of flow regimes on the ability of invasive species to establish and maintain populations in the ridge to reef (R2R) systems common to oceanic islands is not well understood. The hydrology of the relatively short, high-gradient, and flashy R2R streams of oceanic islands may be extremely different from that of the continental watersheds invasive species originate from and thus may exert a stronger influence on their ecology. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of annual variability in flow conditions on the growth and recruitment of invasive armored Suckermouth Catfish Hypostomus c.f. watwata in Hawaiian streams. Methods: Suckermouth Catfish were captured from three streams of the Ala Wai Watershed on O’ahu. We then measured, weighed, and extracted the lapilli from each fish. We used back-calculated lengths at age to estimate the effects of interannual variability in flow on growth and recruitment. Results: Individuals ranged from 0–16 years old and grew rapidly in their first 3 years after which growth slowed substantially. The growth of Suckermouth Catfish was positively influenced by flow conditions indicative of wetter years and more stable flow and negatively influenced by flow conditions indicative of drier years and more variable flows. However, the specific annual flow metrics most strongly influencing growth varied by stream. Similarly, recruitment was positively influenced by higher winter flows with lower daily variability. Discussion: The observed effects of flow on Suckermouth Catfish growth and recruitment suggests that they are not particularly well suited for the flow conditions characteristic to R2R systems and that anthropogenic alterations to the hydrology and physical in-stream habitats may have enabled the species to be more successful on O’ahu than it would have been otherwise.

Hawaii↗
USGS2014

Population viability of Pediocactus brady (Cactaceae) in a changing climate

• Premise of the study: A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi , an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. • Methods: We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λ s ) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λ s , and (2) quantify variability in λ s based on temporal replication of data. • Key results: Overall λ s was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λ s , but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λ s estimates. • Conclusions: Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events.

Arizona↗
USGS2006

Habitat-based adaptive management at Mount Haggin Wildlife Management Area

The 22,743-hectare Mount Haggin Wildlife Management Area was purchased in 1976, in part for moose (Alces alces) winter range. Observed moose populations climbed from a low of 7 in 1976 to a high of 56 in 2000. A 4-step management program was initiated in 2000 consisting of definition of management objective, monitoring to determine if the objective was attained, developing a management strategy, and implementing the strategy. The management objective for browse was defined to be: browsing will not preventyoung plants from attaining their potential stature, their growth being primarily limited by local environmental conditions. Asurvey of Geyer willow (Salix geyeriana) in critical moose habitat indicated that browse plants were 100% intensely browsed, suggesting that browsing could prevent willowheightgrowth. Beginning in 2000, willow trend was monitored annually at 4 sites using an index based on the height of the tallest live stem and the height of the tallest, dead intensely browsed stem (LD Index). Low LD Index values indicated that browsing did prevent height growth. In 2000 moose harvest quotas were increased by 40%; in 2002 harvest quotas were increased an additional 7%. From 2000 to 2002, willow growth increased at all 4 locations. From 2002 to 2004, growth indicators changed relatively little at Sullivan Creek, Deep Creek, and French Creek; at these sites willow condition in 2004 had improved compared to willow condition in 2000. From 2002 to 2004, growth indicators declined markedly at American Creek; in 2004, growth indicators at American Creek were lower compared to measurements made in 2000. The improvement of willow condition at 3 sites was likely due to a combination of reduced moose numbers (due to an increase in harvest) and increased dispersal (due to low snow-cover conditions). Over the study period, the sporting public complained of reduced moose sightability; harvest quotas were lowered substantially in 2003.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

High-resolution sclerochronological analysis of the bivalve mollusk Saxidomus gigantea from Alaska and British Columbia: techniques for revealing environmental archives and archaeological seasonality

The butter clam, Saxidomus gigantea, is one of the most commonly recovered bivalves from archaeological shell middens on the Pacific Coast of North America. This study presents the results of the sclerochronology of modern specimens of S. gigantea, collected monthly from Pender Island (British Columbia), and additional modern specimens from the Dundas Islands (BC) and Mink and Little Takli Islands (Alaska). The methods presented can be used as a template to interpret local environmental conditions and increase the precision of seasonality estimates in shellfish using sclerochronology and oxygen isotope analysis. This method can also identify, with a high degree of accuracy, the date of shell collection to the nearest fortnightly cycle, the time of day the shell was collected and the approximate tidal elevation (i.e., approx. water depth and distance from the shoreline) from which the shell was collected. Life-history traits of S. gigantea were analyzed to understand the timing of growth line formation, the duration of the growing season, the growth rate, and the reliability of annual increments. We also examine the influence of the tidal regime and freshwater mixing in estuarine locations and how these variables can affect both incremental structures and oxygen isotope values. The results of the sclerochronological analysis show that there is a latitudinal trend in shell growth that needs to be considered when using shells for seasonality studies. Oxygen isotope analysis reveals clear annual cycles with the most positive values corresponding to the annual winter growth lines, and the most negative values corresponding to high temperatures during the summer. Intra-annual increment widths demonstrate clear seasonal oscillations with broadest increments in summer and very narrow increments or no growth during the winter months. This study provides new insights into the biology, geochemistry and seasonal growth of S. gigantea, which are crucial for paleoclimate reconstructions and interpreting seasonality patterns of past human collection.

Alaska;British Columbia↗
USGS1989

A 107-year-old coral from Florida Bay: barometer of natural and man- induced catastrophes?

The 107-yr growth history of a massive coral Solenastrea bournoni from Florida Bay was reconstructed with X-ray imagery from a single 4 in. diameter (10 cm) core that penetrated the exact epicenter of the 95.3 cm high colony. Growth increments totalled 952.9 mm, averaging 8.9 mm/yr over the life of the coral. Growth rate trends in the Florida Bay coral were compared to those in a Montastraea annularis of similar age from a nearby patch reef on the Atlantic Ocean side of the Florida Keys. It was concluded that growth rate, at least in these specimens, is a questionable indicator of past hurricanes and freezes. There does appear to be, however, a possible cause-and-effect relationship between major man-induced environmental perturbations and a prolonged reduction in growth rate in each coral's growth record. -from Authors

Bulletin of Marine Science↗
USGS2011

Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American shad

Bioenergetics modeling can be used as a tool to investigate the impact of non-native age-0 American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) on reservoir and estuary food webs. The model can increase our understanding of how these fish influence lower trophic levels as well as predatory fish populations that feed on juvenile salmonids. Bioenergetics modeling can be used to investigate ecological processes, evaluate alternative research hypotheses, provide decision support, and quantitative prediction. Bioenergetics modeling has proven to be extremely useful in fisheries research (Ney et al. 1993,Chips and Wahl 2008, Petersen et al. 2008). If growth and diet parameters are known, the bioenergetics model can be used to quantify the relative amount of zooplankton or insects consumed by age-0 American shad. When linked with spatial and temporal information on fish abundance, model output can guide inferential hypothesis development to demonstrate where the greatest impacts of age-0 American shad might occur. Bioenergetics modeling is particularly useful when research questions involve multiple species and trophic levels (e.g. plankton communities). Bioenergetics models are mass-balance equations where the energy acquired from food is partitioned between maintenance costs, waste products, and growth (Winberg 1956). Specifically, the Wisconsin bioenergetics model (Hanson et al. 1997) is widely used in fisheries science. Researchers have extensively tested, reviewed, and improved on this modeling approach for over 30 years (Petersen et al. 2008). Development of a bioenergetics model for any species requires three key components: 1) determine physiological parameters for the model through laboratory experiments or incorporate data from a closely related species, 2) corroboration of the model with growth and consumption estimates from independent research, and 3) error analysis of model parameters. Wisconsin bioenergetics models have been parameterized for many of the salmonids and predatory fishes encountered in the lower Columbia River (Petersen and Ward 1999). The Wisconsin bioenergetics model has not been developed for American shad, however Limburg (1996) parameterized a simplified bioenergetics growth model for this species. A common application for the Wisconsin bioenergetics model is to estimate the consumption or growth of a fish population under different temperature and feeding scenarios (Ney 1993). One advantage of the bioenergetics approach is that consumption can be estimated without direct field measurements of predation rate (prey·predator -1 · day -1 ; Petersen and Ward 1999). Field estimates of fish consumption are time consuming and costly to determine, and estimates may show wide variance due to environmental and sampling variability. However, the consumption parameters used in a newly developed bioenergetics model must be verified with field and laboratory estimates of consumption (Ney 1993). The objective of this research was to parameterize a Wisconsin bioenergetics model for age-0 American shad using published physiological data on American shad and closely related alosine species. The American shad bioenergetics model will be used as a tool to explore various hypotheses about how age-0 American shad directly and indirectly affect Columbia River salmon through ecological interactions in lower Columbia River food webs. One over-arching focus of the larger research project was to identify potential interactions between age-0 American shad and juvenile salmonids, addressing potential outcomes through bioenergetics modeling scenarios. This report contains two bioenergetics modeling applications to demonstrate how these models can be used to address management questions and direct research effort. The first modeling application uses the American shad bioenergetics model described in this report to explore prey consumption by age-0 American shad (Chapter 1, this report). Dietary data on age-0 American shad and previously published reports on the diet of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Rondorf et al. 1990, USGS unpublished data) suggested there might be considerable dietary overlap between these species in the lower Columbia River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was interested in using the American shad bioenergetics model to explore hypotheses concerning dietary overlap between age-0 American shad and emigrating fall Chinook salmon. The second modeling application uses the fall Chinook salmon bioenergetics model (Koehler et al. 2006) to explore the growth potential of juvenile fall Chinook salmon predating on age-0 American shad in the lower Columbia River. This modeling was based dietary information on a small number of age-0 fall Chinook salmon (n = 13) collected in John Day Reservoir in 1994 - 1996 (unpublished USGS data). Analysis of this dietary data found that these salmonids were feeding primarily on age-0 American shad (> 75% by weight).

Oregon↗
USGS1996

Developing a temporal database of urban development for the Baltimore/Washington region

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are working together as a multiagency, multidisciplinary team in developing a temporal database that documents the growth of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region. This database consists of urban development, principal transportation, shoreline, and population density change. The urban development theme, considered a primary data layer in the study of urban land transformation resulting from human impact on the land, is the focus of this paper. The Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics and Human Impacts Study builds on earlier research efforts that mapped urban land use change for the San Francisco Bay area (Acevedo and Bell, 1994; Bell and others, 1995; Kirtland and others, 1994). In developing a temporal database (Acevedo and others, in press), the team participants hope to provide data that can be used to study patterns of urban growth; assess ecological, environmental, and climatic impacts of urban change; and model and predict future urbanization patterns and impacts (Clarke and others, 1996). Both the San Francisco and Baltimore-Washington regions were selected because of the rapid urban growth and resulting impacts on their ecosystems. The Chesapeake Bay region in particular has undergone extensive environmental agitation due to the hydrologic problems that have arisen from the increase in impermeable surfaces and structures, that is buildings and pavement that physically cover the soil. Because of the inability of water to percolate into the ground, little purification occurs by filtration. Water runs over paved surfaces and quickly washes high levels of toxins directly into the water system. Toxins like gasoline, oil, and fertilizer have dramatically affected the local streams, rivers, and the bay. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. This paper describes the techniques used to map the extent of urban areas for Phase I and does not discuss Phase II in detail because the work is still in progress. In this study, urban development is defined as areas of intensive use, with much of the land covered by structures. The built-up areas are characterized by the existence of a systematic street pattern, and the relative concentration of buildings and associated intensive use areas, such as parking lots. Using this definition, urban development does not refer to political boundaries and may include incorporated or unincorporated areas as well as military reservations. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. To build the urban component of the temporal database, a multidisciplinary team was assembled and a phased approach initiated. Expanding on procedures developed for the San Francisco Regional Study (Bell and others, 1995), the team developed data definitions, a classification scheme, compilation criteria, mapping specifications, guidelines for source materials, and metadata specifications to support development of a logically consistent dataset. Extensive documentation procedures were established to ensure consistency in data collection, and for subsequent application to other regions. Phase II was the implementation of the regional mapping effort. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. The study area for Phase I consisted of an approximate area of 15- by 15-minute segment centered around the city of Baltimore (fig. 1). Phase I was used as a prototype for the technique development and integration that the multiagency collaborative effort would require. The regional study, Phase II, encompassed a 2-degree square centered on Washington, D.C. With more than 7 million people spread across 39 counties, the Baltimore-Washington region is one the Nation's fastest growing metropolitan areas. The two cities are rapidly merging into one.

Maryland↗
USGS1975

Usefulness of LANDSAT data for monitoring plant development and range conditions in California's annual grassland

A network of sampling sites throughout the annual grassland region of California was established to correlate plant growth stages and forage production to climatic and other environmental factors. Plant growth and range conditions were further related to geographic location and seasonal variations. A sequence of LANDSAT data was obtained covering critical periods in the growth cycle. This was analyzed by both photointerpretation and computer aided techniques. Image characteristics and spectral reflectance data were then related to forage production, range condition, range site and changing growth conditions. It was determined that repeat sequences with LANDSAT color composite images do provide a means for monitoring changes in range condition. Spectral radiance data obtained from magnetic tape can be used to determine quantitatively the critical stages in the forage growth cycle. A computer ratioing technique provided a sensitive indicator of changes in growth stages and an indication of the relative differences in forage production between range sites.

California↗
USGS2018

Pre‐fire drought and competition mediate post‐fire conifer mortality in western U.S. National Parks

Tree mortality is an important outcome of many forest fires. Extensive tree injuries from fire may lead directly to mortality, but environmental and biological stressors may also contribute to tree death. However, there is little evidence showing how the combined effects of two common stressors, drought and competition, influence post‐fire mortality. Geographically broad observations of three common western coniferous trees subjected to prescribed fire showed the likelihood of post‐fire mortality was related to intermediate‐term (10 yr) pre‐fire average radial growth, an important component of tree vigor. Path analysis showed that indices of competition and drought stress prior to fire can be described in terms of joint effects on growth, indirectly affecting post‐fire mortality. Our results suggest that the conditions that govern the relationship between growth and mortality in unburned stands may also apply to post‐fire environments. Thus, biotic and abiotic changes that affect growth negatively (e.g., drought stress) or positively (e.g., growth releases following thinning treatments) prior to fire may influence expressed fire severity, independent of fire intensity (e.g., heat flux, residence time). These relationships suggest that tree mortality may increase under stressful climatic or stand conditions even if fire behavior remains constant.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2014

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Changes in behavior are unable to disrupt a trophic cascade involving a specialist herbivore and its food plant

Changes in ecological conditions can induce changes in behavior and demography of wild organisms, which in turn may influence population dynamics. Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nesting in colonies on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska have declined substantially (~50%) since the turn of the century. Pacific black brant are herbivores that rely heavily on Carex subspathacea (Hoppner’s sedge) during growth and development. The availability of C. subspathacea affects gosling growth rates, which subsequently affect pre- and post-fledging survival, as well as size and breeding probability as an adult. We predicted that long-term declines in C. subspathacea have affected gosling growth rates, despite the potential of behavior to buffer changes in food availability during brood rearing. We used Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects models to examine long-term (1987 – 2015) shifts in brant behavior during brood-rearing, forage availability, and gosling growth rates at the Tutakoke River colony. We showed that locomotion behaviors have increased (β = 0.05, 95% CRI 0.032 – 0.068) while resting behaviors have decreased (β = -0.024, 95% CRI -0.041 – -0.007), potentially in response to long-term shifts in forage availability and brood density. Concurrently, gosling growth rates have decreased substantially (β = -0.096, 95% CRI -0.198 – -0.014) despite shifts in behavior, mirroring long-term declines in the abundance of C. subspathacea (β = -0.194, 95% CRI -0.350 – -0.037). These results have important implications for individual fitness and population viability, where shifts in gosling behavior putatively fail to mitigate long-term declines in forage availability.

Article↗
USGS2016

Population-specific life histories contribute to metapopulation viability

Restoration efforts can be improved by understanding how variations in life-history traits occur within populations of the same species living in different environments. This can be done by first understanding the demographic responses of natural occurring populations. Population viability analysis continues to be useful to species management and conservation with sensitivity analysis aiding in the understanding of population dynamics. In this study, using life-table response experiments and elasticity analyses, we investigated how population-specific life-history demographic responses contributed to the metapopulation viability of the Federally threatened Pitcher's thistle ( Cirsium pitcheri ). Specifically, we tested the following hypotheses: (1) Subpopulations occupying different environments within a metapopulation have independent demographic responses and (2) advancing succession results in a shift from a demographic response focused on growth and fecundity to one dominated by stasis. Our results showed that reintroductions had a positive contribution to the metapopulation growth rate as compared to native populations which had a negative contribution. We found no difference in succession on the contribution to metapopulation viability. In addition, we identified distinct population-specific contributions to metapopulation viability and were able to associate specific life-history demographic responses. For example, the positive impact of Miller High Dunes population on the metapopulation growth rate resulted from high growth contributions, whereas increased time of plant in stasis for the State Park Big Blowout population resulted in negative contributions. A greater understanding of how separate populations respond in their corresponding environment may ultimately lead to more effective management strategies aimed at reducing extinction risk. We propose the continued use of sensitivity analyses to evaluate population-specific demographic influences on metapopulation viability. In understanding the underlying causes of the projected extinction probabilities of each population and identifying broad-scale contributions of different populations to the metapopulation, the process of pinpointing target populations is simplified. More detailed analyses can then be applied to the target populations to increase population viability and consequently metapopulation viability. Based on our research, we suggest that the best approach to improve the overall metapopulation viability is to manage the contributions to population growth for each population separately.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2023

Changes in wildfire occurrence and risk to homes from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA

Wildfires and housing development have increased since the 1990s, presenting unique challenges for wildfire management. However, it is unclear how the relative influences of housing growth and changing wildfire occurrence have altered risk to homes, or the potential for wildfire to threaten homes. We used a random forests model to predict burn probability in relation to weather variables at 1-km resolution and monthly intervals from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains ecoregion. We quantified risk by combining the predicted burn probabilities with decadal housing density. We then compared the predicted burn probabilities and risk across the study area with observed values and quantified trends. Finally, we evaluated how housing growth and changes in burn probability influenced risk individually and combined. Fires burned 9055 km 2 and exposed more than 8500 homes from 1990 to 2019. Observed burned area increased 632% from the 1990s to the 2000s, which combined with housing growth, resulted in a 1342% increase in homes exposed. Increases continued in the 2010s but at lower rates; burned area by 65% and exposure by 32%. The random forests model had excellent fit and high correlation with observations (AUC = 0.88 and r = 0.9). Observed values were within the 95% uncertainty interval for all years except 2016 (burned area) and 2000 (exposure). However, our model overpredicted in years with low observed burned area and underpredicted in years with high observed burned area. Overpredictions in risk resulted in lower rates of change in predicted risk compared with change in observed exposure. Increases in risk between the 1990s and 2000s were primarily due to warmer and drier weather conditions and secondarily because of housing growth. However, increases between the 2000s and 2010s were primarily due to housing growth. Our modeling approach identifies spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire potential and risk, which is critical information to guide decision-making. Because the drivers behind risk shift over time, strategies to mitigate risk may need to account for multiple drivers simultaneously.

Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗
USGS1996

Effects of spatial and temporal variation of acid-volatile sulfide on the bioavailability of copper and zinc in freshwater sediments

Variation in concentrations of acid-volatile sulfide (AVS) in sediments from the upper Clark Fork River of Montana, USA, was associated with differences in bioaccumulation of Cu and Zn and growth of larvae of the midge, Chironomus tentans . Growth of midge larvae was significantly greater and bioaccumulation of Cu was significantly less in surface sections (0–3 cm depth) of sediment cores, which had greater concentrations of AVS and lesser ratios of simultaneously extracted metals to AVS (SEM:AVS ratios) than in subsurface sediments (6–9 cm). Concentrations of AVS were significantly less in sediments incubated with oxic overlying water for 9 weeks than in the same sediments incubated under anoxic conditions. Bioaccumulation of Cu differed significantly between incubation treatments, corresponding to differences in concentrations of AVS and SEM:AVS ratios, although midge growth did not. Bioaccumulation of Zn did not differ significantly between depth strata of sediment cores or between incubation treatments. When results from the two sets of bioassays were combined, bioaccumulation of Cu and Zn, but not growth, was significantly correlated with SEM:AVS ratios and other estimates of bioavailable metal fractions in sediments. Growth of midge larvae was significantly correlated with bioaccumulation of Zn, but not Cu, suggesting that Zn was the greater contributor to the toxicity of these sediments. Assessments of the toxicity of metal-contaminated freshwater sediments should consider the effects of spatial and temporal variation in AVS concentrations on metal bioavailability.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2007

Morphometry of the cisco, Leucichthys artedi (Le Sueur), in the lakes of the Northeastern Highlands, Wisconsin

In an earlier study (Hile, 1936) a detailed investigation was presented of the age and growth of the ciscoes of Trout Lake, Musckellunge Lake, Silver Lake, and Clear Lake in northeastern Wisconsin. It was demonstrated that the growth rate of the cisco varies widely from lake to lake within the same geographical area, and that these differences in growth rate show a close correlation with certain environmental conditions. The present study of the morphometry of the cisco populations of these same four lakes may be considered a continuation of the earlier investigation, since emphasis will be places on the problem of the relationship between the growth rate and morphological characteristics of the cisco. Attention will be given also to the existence of fundamental structural differences between year classes of the same population, differences that must be considered the result of variation from one calendar year to another in the environmental conditions at the time of the early growth and development of the cisco.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

Effects of black bear relocation on elk calf recruitment at Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Previous research from 2001 to 2006 on an experimentally released elk ( Cervus elaphus ) population at Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP or Park) indicated that calf recruitment (i.e., calves reaching 1 yr of age per adult female elk) was low (0.306, total SE = 0.090) resulting in low or negative population growth ( λ  = 0.996, 95% CI = 0.945–1.047). Black bear ( Ursus americanus ) predation was the primary calf mortality factor. From 2006 to 2008, we trapped and relocated 49 bears (30 of which were radiocollared) from the primary calving areas in the Park and radiomonitored 67 (28 M:39 F) adult elk and 42 calves to compare vital rates and population growth with the earlier study. A model with annual calf recruitment rate correlating with the number of bears relocated each year was supported (ΔAIC c  = 0.000; β  = 0.070, 95% CI = 0.028–0.112) and a model with annual calf recruitment differing from before to during bear relocation revealed an increase to 0.544 (total SE = 0.098; β  = −1.092, 95% CI = −1.180 to −0.375). Using vital rates and estimates of process standard errors observed during our study, 25-yr simulations maintained a mean positive growth rate in 100% of the stochastic trials with λ averaging 1.118 (95% CI = 1.096–1.140), an increase compared with rates before bear relocation. A life table response experiment revealed that increases in population growth were mostly (67.1%) due to changes in calf recruitment. We speculate that behavioral adaptation of the elk since release also contributed to the observed increases in recruitment and population growth. Our results suggest that managers interested in elk reintroduction within bear range should consider bear relocation as a temporary means of increasing calf recruitment.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗
USGS2014

A test of the compensatory mortality hypothesis in mountain lions: a management experiment in West-Central Montana

Mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) are widely hunted for recreation, population control, and to reduce conflict with humans, but much is still unknown regarding the effects of harvest on mountain lion population dynamics. Whether human hunting mortality on mountain lions is additive or compensatory is debated. Our primary objective was to investigate population effects of harvest on mountain lions. We addressed this objective with a management experiment of 3 years of intensive harvest followed by a 6-year recovery period. In December 2000, after 3 years of hunting, approximately 66% of a single game management unit within the Blackfoot River watershed in Montana was closed to lion hunting, effectively creating a refuge representing approximately 12% (915 km 2 ) of the total study area (7,908 km 2 ). Hunting continued in the remainder of the study area, but harvest levels declined from approximately 9/1,000 km 2 in 2001 to 2/1,000 km 2 in 2006 as a result of the protected area and reduced quotas outside. We radiocollared 117 mountain lions from 1998 to 2006. We recorded known fates for 63 animals, and right-censored the remainder. Although hunting directly reduced survival, parameters such as litter size, birth interval, maternity, age at dispersal, and age of first reproduction were not significantly affected. Sensitivity analysis showed that female survival and maternity were most influential on population growth. Life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) demonstrated the effect of hunting on the population dynamics of mountain lions. In our non-hunted population, reproduction (kitten survival and maternity) accounted for approximately 62% of the variation in growth rate, whereas adult female survival accounted for 30%. Hunting reversed this, increasing the reliance of population growth on adult female survival (45% of the variation in population growth), and away from reproduction (12%). Our research showed that harvest at the levels implemented in this study did not affect population productivity (i.e., maternity), but had an additive effect on mountain lion mortality, and therefore population growth. Through harvest, wildlife managers have the ability to control mountain lion populations.

Montana↗