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Sensitivity of wetland saturated hydraulic heads and water budgets to evapotranspiration

The sensitivity of wetland saturated hydraulic heads and water budgets to evapotranspiration (ET) was examined using a simplified hydrologic model and eight representations of ET. Estimates of ET that created the most reliable wetland saturated hydraulic heads and water budgets employed vegetation coefficients to correct potential ET, calculated by the Priestley-Taylor equation, to actual ET. The accuracy of simulated hydraulic heads generally improved by < 1 cm, however, when using the most reliable ET estimates based on vegetation coefficients. An ET estimate that used a regression-defined extinction depth created substantial errors in simulated water budgets. Specifically, the extinction-depth ET overestimated the annual actual ET by about 40 (400 mm). An ET approximation that overestimates actual ET by 400 mm annually applied in a regional hydrologic model over the 5400 km 2 area of Everglades National Park would underestimate the annual volume of water available for ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff to coastal estuaries by 2.3 billion m 3 . For comparison, this underestimation is about two thirds of the mean volume of water in Lake Okeechobee (3.8 billion m 3 ), the largest lake in Florida, and clearly demonstrates unbiased estimates of ET are necessary for reliably simulating wetland water budgets. ?? 2008 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Wetlands↗

Albino mutation rates in red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle L.) as a bioassay of contamination history in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

We assessed the sensitivity of a viviparous estuarine tree species, Rhizophora mangle, to historic sublethal mutagenic stress across a fine spatial scale by comparing the frequency of trees producing albino propagules in historically contaminated (n=4) and uncontaminated (n=11) forests in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA. Data from uncontaminated forests were used to provide estimates of background mutation rates. We also determined whether other fitness parameters were negatively correlated with mutagenic stress (e.g., degree of outcrossing and numbers of reproducing trees km-1). Contaminated sites in Tampa Bay had significantly higher frequencies of trees that were heterozygous for albinism per 1000 total reproducing trees (FHT) than uncontaminated forests (mean ?? SE: 11.4 ?? 4.3 vs 4.3 ?? 0.73, P<0.022). Two sites that were contaminated by oil failed to show elevated FHT, although in the first instance, the mutagenic effects of the oil may have been reduced by several weeks of weathering in open water before coming ashore, and in the second > 25 yrs of subsequent recruitment and tree replacement may have allowed an initial elevation in the FHT to decay. Patterns of FHT were not explained by distance from the bay mouth or the degree of urbanization. However, there was a significant positive relationship between tree size and FHT (r=0.83, P<0.018), which suggests that forests with older or larger trees provide a more lasting record of cumulative mutagenic stress. No other fitness parameters correlated with FHT. There was a difference in FHT between two latitudes, as determined by comparing Tampa Bay with literature values for Puerto Rico. The sensitivity of this bioassay for the effects of mutagens will facilitate future monitoring of contamination events and comparisons of bay-wide recovery in future decades. Development of a database of FHT values for a range of subtropical and tropical estuaries is underway that will provide a baseline against which to compare mutational consequences of global change. ?? 2005, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Wetlands↗

Standardization and application of an index of community integrity for waterbirds in the Chesapeake Bay, USA

In recent decades, there has been increasing interest in the application of ecological indices to assess ecosystem condition in response to anthropogenic activities. An Index of Waterbird Community Integrity was previously developed for the Chesapeake Bay, USA. However, the scoring criteria were not defined well enough to generate scores for new species that were not observed in the original study. The goal of this study was to explicitly define the scoring criteria for the existing index and to develop index scores for all waterbirds of the Chesapeake Bay. The standardized index then was applied to a case study investigating the relationship between waterbird community integrity and shoreline development during late summer and late fall (2012–2014) using an alternative approach to survey methodology, which allowed for greater area coverage compared to the approach used in the original study. Index scores for both seasons were negatively related to percentage of developed shorelines. Providing these updated tools using the detailed scoring system will facilitate future application to new species or development of the index in other estuaries worldwide. This methodology allows for consistent cross-study comparisons and can be combined with other community integrity indices, allowing for more effective estuarine management.

Chesapeake Bay↗

California gull (Larus californicus) space use and timing of movements in relation to landfills and breeding colonies

Expanding gull (Laridae) populations throughout the world have been attributed to the availability of anthropogenic food subsidies. The influence of landfills on California Gull ( Larus californicus ) space use and the timing of their movements was evaluated in San Francisco Bay, California, USA. Using radio telemetry, 108 California Gulls were tracked, > 7,000 locations were recorded, and > 1 million detections were obtained at automated logger systems placed at the two main landfills and three major breeding colonies. Population home range (31-35 km 2 ) and core use areas (2-3 km 2 ) overlapped landfills and colonies, and expanded after breeding. California Gull attendance at landfills (1.6-19.0 km from colonies) increased throughout breeding and post-breeding, whereas attendance at colonies was low during pre-breeding (20%-40% per day), increased during breeding (60%-80% per day), and declined into and during post-breeding (< 20% per day). California Gull attendance at landfills was greatest when garbage was delivered from 06:00 hr in the morning until 18:00 hr at night. In contrast, California Gull attendance at colonies during breeding was greater at night from 20:00 hr to 05:00 hr (50%-70% per hr) than during the day from 06:00 hr to 18:00 hr (30%-40% per hr). Landfills played a predominant role in California Gull space use and the timing of their movements in this highly urbanized estuary.

California↗

Sexing Forster's Terns using morphometric measurements

Forester's Terns (Sterna forsteri), like most seabirds, are monomorphic and are difficult to sex without extensive behavioral observations or genetic sexing. We conducted the first morphological study and discriminant function analysis on Forster's Terns to develop a method to accurately identify their sex in the field. A sample of 84 terns from the San Francisco Bay estuary were captured or collected, measured, and the sex of 40 female and 44 male terns was confirmed by genetic analyses or via necropsy. Male Forster's Terns were larger than females for 7 of 9 morphological measurements, with head-bill length showing the least amount of overlap between the sexes, followed by culmen length and culmen depth at the gonys. Sexual size dimorphism was greatest with retrix R6 length, followed by culmen width, and culmen depth. A discriminant function including only head-bill length accurately sexed 82% of Forster's Terns, whereas a second discriminant function incorporating both head-bill length and culmen depth at the gonys increased sexing accuracy to 87%. When we used a 75% posterior probability or greater of accurately sexing Forster's Terns, we excluded only 18% of the sample that overlapped and accurately sexed 94% of the remaining individuals. Our results indicate that Forster's Terns can be accurately sexed in the field using only 2 morphological measurements.

Waterbirds↗

Scale-dependent habitat selection of nesting Great Egrets and Snowy Egrets

Foraging habitat selection of nesting Great Egrets (Ardea alba) and Snowy Egrets (Egretta thula) was investigated within an estuary with extensive impounded salt marsh habitat. Using a geographic information system, available habitat was partitioned into concentric bands at five, ten, and 15 km radius from nesting colonies to assess the relative effects of habitat composition and distance on habitat selection. Snowy Egrets were more likely than Great Egrets to depart colonies and travel to foraging sites in groups, but both species usually arrived at sites that were occupied by other wading birds. Mean flight distances were 6.2 km (SE = 0.4, N = 28, range 1.8-10.7 km) for Great Egrets and 4.7 km (SE = 0.48, N = 31, range 0.7-12.5 km) for Snowy Egrets. At the broadest spatial scale both species used impounded (mostly salt marsh) and estuarine edge habitat more than expected based on availability while avoiding unimpounded (mostly fresh water wetland) habitat. At more local scales habitat use matched availability. Interpretation of habitat preference differed with the types of habitat that were included and the maximum distance that habitat was considered available. These results illustrate that caution is needed when interpreting the results of habitat preference studies when individuals are constrained in their choice of habitats, such as for central place foragers.

Waterbirds↗

Responses of California Brown Pelicans to disturbances at a large Oregon roost

Numbers of California Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis californicus) along the coast of Oregon and Washington have increased sharply in recent years. We identified East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary as the site of the largest pelican roost within this region. Numbers of pelicans roosting on East Sand Island have increased from less than 100 during 1979-1986 to a high count of 10,852 in 2002. The East Sand Island roost is currently the site of a major non-breeding aggregation of this endangered subspecies. Total numbers of pelicans roosting on East Sand Island increased seasonally from April to September or October, and then declined sharply with the onset of winter storms. Pelicans appeared to forage more during low tides, and return to the roost during high tides; therefore, pelican numbers on the island were positively associated with tide height. Land-based human disturbance was negatively associated with total pelican numbers, whereas water-based human disturbance had no significant effect on total pelican numbers on the island. Natural disturbances, although more frequent than human disturbances, apparently did not influence the total number of pelicans on the island.

Waterbirds↗

Annual survival, site fidelity, and longevity in the eastern coastal population of the Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) based on a 20-year mark-recapture/resighting study

A long-term study of annual survival, longevity, and site fidelity in the eastern coastal population of the Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) during the breeding season was conducted from 1999 through 2018 in the outer coastal plain of the southeastern Atlantic coast of the United States. Painted Buntings were uniquely color-banded from 1999 through 2003 at 40 study sites that were paired at 20 locations from southeastern North Carolina south to northeastern Florida. Survival analysis used capture histories through 2005 for 994 birds banded as hatch-year and 2420 birds banded as post-hatch-year (adults). Annual estimates of apparent survival (1999-2004) averaged 0.71 and 0.66 for adult males and females, respectively, and 0.33 for hatch-year birds. We did not find evidence that survival differed in relation to latitude or extent of human development near study sites, although estimates for adult females were higher for birds banded on sheltered islands compared to the mainland. Expected time in the population, based on estimated survival, was 3.9 and 3.4 years for adult males and females, respectively. The oldest observed birds were a 14-year old male observed in June 2016 at Harris Neck NWR, Georgia, the site at which he had been banded in July 2003 as a second-year bird, and a 13-year old male seen at Ft. George Island, Florida in June 2016, 2 km across a tidal estuary from the site where the bird was banded in August 2003 as hatch-year. The males were sighted at these two sites in 9 and 11 different years, respectively. Overall, 78% (males) and 81% (females) of re-sightings and re-captures of birds banded as adults occurred at the same study site where individuals were banded, compared to 59% (males) and 60% (females) of birds banded as hatch-year. Known mortalities of banded buntings included nine birds trapped for the caged-bird trade. This study shows the potential for high survival and longevity in the eastern coastal population of the Painted Bunting, and given evidence of high site fidelity in the breeding range, the vulnerability of the population to human development along the southeastern U.S. coast as well as to illegal trapping.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology↗

Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica in Alaska: Revisiting population estimates from the staging grounds

Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica baueri breed in Alaska and spend the nonbreeding season primarily in eastern Australia and New Zealand. Long-term declines spurred recent surveys at nonbreeding sites that yielded a revised population estimate of ~126,000 godwits. We conducted aerial surveys for Bar-tailed Godwits in 2018 and 2019 at pre-migratory staging sites in western Alaska. Counts from similar surveys in 1997 accorded with counts of baueri from the nonbreeding range. Instead of relying on observer estimates of flock sizes, we enumerated 97% of our survey totals using digital photography. Our survey results differed markedly between 2018 (39,751) and 2019 (100,926), differences that reflected a relatively late autumn survey period in 2018, when some godwits were likely to have left the area, compared to 2019. In contrast to the 1997 surveys, we found few Bar-tailed Godwits at estuaries on the Alaska Peninsula. However, we counted nearly 93,000 godwits (~92% of survey total) along ~60 km of coast at the Kuskokwim River Delta in 2019, a value constituting nearly three-quarters of the subspecies’ current population estimate. Our survey totals for 2019 were in agreement with contemporaneous counts at austral nonbreeding sites, demonstrating how aerial surveys from Alaska can provide useful insights into counts conducted elsewhere in the subspecies’ range. When combined with measures of reproductive output, estimates of seasonal survival, and dedicated studies of the movement and survival of juvenile godwits, future surveys from Alaska can further contribute to efforts to determine mechanisms of population changes in baueri Bar-tailed Godwits.

Alaska↗

Distribution and abundance of manatees along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico

A review of historical and recent records of manatee ( Trichechus manatus ) sightings along the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico indicates that their numbers have declined in Texas, but increased in Louisiana and Mississippi. This is due to their extirpation in Mexico and dramatic increase along the southern Big Bend coast of northwestern peninsular Florida. The distribution of manatees along the southern Big Bend coast is related to their need for warm water and the distribution of fresh water and submerged aquatic and marine food plants. The spring-fed headwaters of Crystal and Homosassa rivers are important warm water winter refuges; nearly 90% of the same individuals return each winter. The estuaries and grass beds associated with these two rivers and the Suwannee, Withlacoochee, and Chasshowitzka rivers are the principal summer habitats. The Suwannee and Crystal rivers are "high-use" rivers, whereas the other three are "low-use" rivers. Low human-caused mortality, high fecundity, some immigration, and high site fidelity are responsible for the increasing numbers of manatees using the southern Big Bend coast. Since this region of Florida has experienced relatively little development compared with the rest of the state, the best long-term future for this endangered marine mammal in the United States lies along the southern Big Bend coast.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level

Salt marsh ecosystems are maintained by the dominant macrophytes that regulate the elevation of their habitat within a narrow portion of the intertidal zone by accumulating organic matter and trapping inorganic sediment. The long-term stability of these ecosystems is explained by interactions among sea level, land elevation, primary production, and sediment accretion that regulate the elevation of the sediment surface toward an equilibrium with mean sea level. We show here in a salt marsh that this equilibrium is adjusted upward by increased production of the salt marsh macrophyte Spartina alterniflora and downward by an increasing rate of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Adjustments in marsh surface elevation are slow in comparison to interannual anomalies and long-period cycles of sea level, and this lag in sediment elevation results in significant variation in annual primary productivity. We describe a theoretical model that predicts that the system will be stable against changes in relative mean sea level when surface elevation is greater than what is optimal for primary production. When surface elevation is less than optimal, the system will be unstable. The model predicts that there is an optimal rate of RSLR at which the equilibrium elevation and depth of tidal flooding will be optimal for plant growth. However, the optimal rate of RSLR also represents an upper limit because at higher rates of RSLR the plant community cannot sustain an elevation that is within its range of tolerance. For estuaries with high sediment loading, such as those on the southeast coast of the United States, the limiting rate of RSLR was predicted to be at most 1.2 cm/yr, which is 3.5 times greater than the current, long-term rate of RSLR.

South Carolina↗

Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10–100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of <10 organisms with body size >50 μm per m 3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

Ecological Applications↗

Measuring spatial variation in secondary production and food quality using a common consumer approach in Lake Erie

Lake Erie is a large lake straddling the border of the U.S. and Canada that has become increasingly eutrophic in recent years. Eutrophication is particularly focused in the shallow western basin. The western basin of Lake Erie is hydrodynamically similar to a large estuary, with riverine inputs from the Detroit and Maumee Rivers mixing together and creating gradients in chemical and physical conditions. This study was driven by two questions: How does secondary production and food quality for consumers vary across this large mixing zone? and Are there correlations between cyanobacterial abundance and secondary production or food quality for consumers? Measuring spatial and temporal variation in secondary production and food quality is difficult for a variety of logistical reasons, so here a common consumer approach was used. In a common consumer approach, individuals of a single species are raised under similar conditions until placed in the field across environmental gradients of interest. After some period of exposure, the response of that common consumer is measured to provide an index of spatial variation in conditions. Here, a freshwater mussel (Lampsilis siliquoidea) was deployed at 32 locations that spanned habitat types and a gradient in cyanobacterial abundance in the western basin of Lake Erie to measure spatial variation in growth (an index of secondary production) and fatty acid (FA) content (an index of food quality). We found secondary production was highest within the Maumee rivermouth and lowest in the open waters of the lake. Mussel tissues in the Maumee rivermouth also included more eicosapentaenoic and docosapentaenoic fatty acids (EPA and DPA, respectively), but fewer bacterial FAs, suggesting more algae at the base of the food web in the Maumee rivermouth compared to open lake sites. The satellite-derived estimate of cyanobacterial abundance was not correlated to secondary production, but was positively related to EPA and DPA content in the mussels, suggesting more of these important FAs in locations with more cyanobacteria. These results suggest that growth of secondary consumers and the availability of important fatty acids in the western basin are centered on the Maumee rivermouth.

Lake Erie↗

Concentrations and patterns of perfluoroalkyl acids in Georgia, USA surface waters near and distant to a major use source

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) are widespread contaminants emanating from, among other sources, the production/degradation of fluorinated chemicals used in surface repellant applications, such as carpet manufacturing. The goal of the present study was to assess the concentrations of PFAAs, including perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUA), and perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), in surface waters both near a wastewater land application system (LAS) in Dalton (GA, USA), home to North America's largest carpet manufacturing site, and distant to this location (Altamaha River, GA, USA) to understand the fate of PFAAs in freshwater. Levels of PFAAs were high in the Conasauga River (GA, USA) downstream of the LAS (PFOA, 253-1,150 ng/L; PFOS, 192-318 ng/L; PFNA, 202-369 ng/L; PFDA, 30.1-113 ng/L; PFUA, 58.0-99.2 ng/L; PFOSA, 162-283 ng/L) and in streams and ponds in Dalton (PFOA, 49.9-299 ng/L; PFOS, 15.8-120 ng/L), and were among the highest measured at a nonspill or directrelease location. Perfluoroalkyl acids in the Altamaha River were much lower (PFOA, 3.0-3.1 ng/L; PFOS, 2.6-2.7 ng/L), but were a source of PFAAs to Georgia's estuaries. A preliminary hazard assessment indicated that concentrations of PFOS at two sites in the Conasauga River exceeded the threshold effect predicted for birds consuming aquatic organisms that are exposed continuously to the PFOS levels at these sites. Assuming that toxicity for all PFAAs quantified is equal to that of PFOS, the sum total PFAAs at two sites within the Conasauga River exceeded PFOS thresholds for aquatic and avian species, warranting additional research. ?? 2008 SETAC Printed in the USA.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

The Asian clam Corbicula fluminea as a biomonitor of trace element contamination: Accounting for different sources of variation using an hierarchical linear model

In the present study, specimens of the invasive clam, Corbicula fluminea, were collected above and below possible sources of potentially toxic trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn) in the Altamaha River system (Georgia, USA). Bioaccumulation of these elements was quantified, along with environmental (water and sediment) concentrations. Hierarchical linear models were used to account for variability in tissue concentrations related to environmental (site water chemistry and sediment characteristics) and individual (growth metrics) variables while identifying the strongest relations between these variables and trace element accumulation. The present study found significantly elevated concentrations of Cd, Cu, and Hg downstream of the outfall of kaolin-processing facilities, Zn downstream of a tire cording facility, and Cr downstream of both a nuclear power plant and a paper pulp mill. Models of the present study indicated that variation in trace element accumulation was linked to distance upstream from the estuary, dissolved oxygen, percentage of silt and clay in the sediment, elemental concentrations in sediment, shell length, and bivalve condition index. By explicitly modeling environmental variability, the Hierarchical linear modeling procedure allowed the identification of sites showing increased accumulation of trace elements that may have been caused by human activity. Hierarchical linear modeling is a useful tool for accounting for environmental and individual sources of variation in bioaccumulation studies. ?? 2009 SETAC.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Rapid toxicity assessment of sediments from estuarine ecosystems: A new tandem in vitro testing approach

Microtox® and Mutatox® were used to evaluate the acute toxicity and genotoxicity, respectively, of organic sediment extracts from Pensacola Bay and St. Andrew Bay, two estuaries that cover about 273 and 127 km 2 , respectively, along the Gulf coast of Florida, USA. The sensitivity and selectivity of these two bioluminescent toxicity assays were demonstrated in validation studies with over 50 pesticides, genotoxins, and industrial pollutants, both as single compounds and in complex mixtures. The 50% effective concentration (EC50) values of insecticides, petroleum products, and polychlorinated biphenyls determined by Microtox all tended to group around the mean EC50 value of 1.2 (0.8) mg/L. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon sensitivity of Mutatox was in general similar to that reported in the Ames test. Surficial sediment samples were collected, extracted with dichloromethane, evaporated and concentrated under nitrogen, dissolved in dimethyl sulfoxide, assayed for acute toxicity and genotoxicity, and compared with reference sediments. Samples with low EC50 values, and determined to be genotoxic, were detected in Massalina Bayou, Watson Bayou, East Bay, and St. Andrew Bay–East in St. Andrew Bay as well as Bayou Grande, Bayou Chico, and Bayou Texar in Pensacola Bay. An overview of these data sets analyzed by Spearman rank correlation showed a significant correlation between acute toxicity and genotoxicity ( p < 0.05). Microtox and Mutatox in tandem was a sensitive, cost‐effective, and rapid (<24 h) screening tool that identified troublesome areas of pollution and assessed the potential sediment toxicity of lipophilic contaminants in aquatic ecosystems.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Calibrating biomonitors to ecological disturbance: a new technique for explaining metal effects in natural waters

Bioaccumulated toxic metals in tolerant biomonitors are indicators of metal bioavailability and can be calibrated against metal‐specific responses in sensitive species, thus creating a tool for defining dose–response for metals in a field setting. Dose–response curves that define metal toxicity in natural waters are rare. Demonstrating cause and effect under field conditions and integrated chemical measures of metal bioavailability from food and water is problematic. The total bioaccumulated metal concentration in any organism that is a net accumulator of the metal is informative about metal bioavailability summed across exposure routes. However, there is typically no one universal metal concentration that is indicative of toxicity, especially across species, largely because of interspecies differences in detoxification. Stressed organisms are also only present across a narrow range in the dose–response curve, limiting the use of singles species as both biomonitors and bioindicator of stress. Herein we show, in 3 field settings, that bioaccumulated Cu concentrations in a metal‐tolerant, riverine biomonitor (species of the caddisfly genus Hydropsyche spp.) can be calibrated against metal‐specific ecological responses across very wide ranges of contamination. Using the calibrated dose–response, we show that reduced abundance of species and individuals from particularly sensitive mayfly families (heptageniid mayflies) is more than 2‐fold more sensitive to bioavailable Cu than other traditional measures of stress like EPT or total number of benthic macroinvertebrate species. We propose that this field dose‐response curve be tested more widely for general application, and that calibrations against other stress responses be developed for biomonitors from lakes, estuaries, and coastal marine ecosystems.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

High-resolution foraminiferal, isotopic, and trace element records from holocene estuarine deposits of San Francisco Bay, California

A 3.5-m gravity core (DJ6-93SF-6) from San Francisco Bay reveals a complex paleoclimatic history of the region over the last 3870 cal YBP. A polynomial equation based on 11 AMS 14C ages provides an excellent age model for the core, and environmental proxies for water temperature and salinity are derived from various foraminiferal abundances, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, and Mg/Ca ratios. Two foraminiferal associations were identified by Q-mode cluster analysis: a colder-water Elphidium excavatum association and the warmer-water Ammonia beccarii-Elphidium gunteri association. The E. excavatum association dominates the core for all but about 600 years out of the last four millennia. At 3870 cal YBP, water temperatures were warm (13.9??C) and freshwater inflow was reduced compared with today. From 3590 to 2860 cal YBP, temperatures dropped 0.5??C and the climate remained dry. This was followed by a period of pronounced lower ??13C values, indicating that conditions became considerably wetter from 2860 to 2170 cal YBP. During this interval, the temperature oscillated frequently, peaking at 13.9??C at 2710 cal YBP, then dropping shortly thereafter to 12.8??C at 2420 cal YBP. Freshwater inflow gradually decreased between 2170 and 1950 cal YBP with a minimal rise in temperature, then changed quickly to colder and wetter conditions at 1900 cal YBP. Drier conditions then prevailed until 1480 cal YBP with water temperatures fluctuating between 13.1??C and 13.8??C, followed by wetter climate from 1480 to 1320 cal YBP. A significant faunal shift from the E. excavatum association to the A. beccarii-E. gunteri association occurred from 1250 to 650 cal YBP, possibly due to regional warming, decreased oxygen availability, and/or a change in the phyto-plankton community. Associated with this change in faunal composition were warm and dry conditions, representative of the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climatic Anomaly). A climatic shift coincident with the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA I and LIA II) is evident from 650 to 280 cal YBP, with the return of the E. excavatum association and an extreme drop in ??18O values, all indicating increased precipitation and fresh water inflow. This was followed by generally drier conditions to the present, except for a brief wet period around 100 cal YBP, and fairly consistent water temperatures in the middle 13??C, except for a drop to 12.8??C at 200 cal YBP. Two significant faunal changes occur near the top of the core. First, there is the reappearance of the A. beccarii-E. gunteri association, suggesting that, once again, regional warming has taken place, oxygen availability has declined, and/or environmental conditions changed such that diatoms have become a scarce food source. Second, there is the first appearance of the invasive Japanese foraminifera Trochammina hadai Uchio, a species that commonly lives in highly polluted areas and is an indicator of eutrophication in its native estuaries. At the same time, freshwater inflow decreased, which may be explained by global warming during the last 100 years, or more likely due to modern water diversion for agriculture in the central valley of California. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Climate, San Francisco Bay, Holocene, foraminifers, isotopes, trace metals, Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age.

Conference Paper↗