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Assessing water quality from highway runoff at selected sites in North Carolina with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a cooperative agreement with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) to develop a North Carolina-enhanced variation of the national Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) with available North Carolina-specific streamflow and water-quality data and to demonstrate use of the model by documenting selected simulation scenarios. The USGS developed the national SELDM in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to provide the tools and techniques necessary for performing stormwater-quality simulations. SELDM uses a stochastic mass-balance approach to estimate combinations of flows, concentrations, and loads of stormwater constituents from the site of interest (often a highway catchment; nonhighway areas, such as a large impervious area at a shopping center complex, also can be used) and the basin upstream from the stormwater outfall to assess the risk for adverse effects of runoff. SELDM also can be used to simulate the effectiveness of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality concentration reductions by stormwater best management practices (BMPs), which are designed to help mitigate the effects of runoff on receiving water bodies. Some of the statistical inputs needed for the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM were either calculated or augmented using local or regional data from North Carolina. Streamflow statistics used by SELDM were determined for 266 streamgages across North Carolina on the basis of data available through the 2015 water year. Recession ratio statistics used for triangular hydrographs were also developed for 30 streamgages across the State. The NCDOT identified previous research reports on highway-runoff and BMP studies in North Carolina for review of potential data addition to the national FHWA Highway-Runoff Database (HRDB). Following USGS review of these data, a total of 25,087 event mean concentration values and 1,140 storm events for 39 highway-runoff sites and 195 analytes were uploaded to the national HRDB from six North Carolina highway-runoff research reports and a recent USGS bridge deck runoff study. Using data for 27 streamgages in North Carolina, a total of 57 water-quality transport curves were developed for seven constituents for use in simulating water-quality conditions in the upstream basin. Performance data for three BMPs (bioretention, grass strip or swale, and wetland channel) from NCDOT research data were incorporated into the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM for volume-reduction statistics, including the effectiveness of treating four water-quality constituents (total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate plus nitrite) and turbidity. Simulations using the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM are presented for two hypothetical upstream basins in the Piedmont ecoregion and one hypothetical highway site to demonstrate how simulations can be used to provide risk-based information about potential effects of stormwater runoff on downstream water quality and the potential for mitigating those risks by using BMPs. The first group of simulations explores the stochastic variability in dilution factors (the ratio of the highway runoff to the total downstream stormflow) for a hypothetical Piedmont rural creek having drainage areas ranging from 1 to 100 square miles. The second group of simulations examines dilution factors based on variations in precipitation, streamflow, and recession ratios for two hypothetical Piedmont upstream basins (rural and urban) where the drainage area was held constant at 25 square miles. These simulations indicate the sensitivity of results to variations in each of the three variables. The third group of simulations examines the effects of varied concentrations in the upstream basin on water-quality conditions downstream from the highway crossing. Variations in upstream water-quality conditions for three constituents (suspended sediment concentration, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) are based on water-quality transport curves selected from among the 57 curves developed as part of this study to represent low-, medium-, and high-concentration statistics. Simulations completed for this third group also examine the potential effects of grass swale and bioretention BMP treatment on total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in highway runoff. The BMP performance data from the NCDOT research reports were applied in this group of simulations. The stochastic mass-balance approach used in SELDM analyses and simulations provides a strong tool for engineers and water-resource managers to use in exploring a wide range of possible hydrologic and water-quality inputs and their effects on downstream water quality. The results of this study can not only aid engineers and managers in planning for potential adverse effects of runoff at site-specific locations, they can also help the USGS and other Federal and State agencies with oversight responsibilities in stormwater-quality issues to continue gathering data on potential water-quality effects in receiving streams.

North Carolina↗

The Mussel Watch California pilot study on contaminants of emerging concern (CECs): synthesis and next steps

A multiagency pilot study on mussels ( Mytilus spp.) collected at 68 stations in California revealed that 98% of targeted contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) were infrequently detectable at concentrations ⩽1 ng/g. Selected chemicals found in commercial and consumer products were more frequently detected at mean concentrations up to 470 ng/g dry wt. The number of CECs detected and their concentrations were greatest for stations categorized as urban or influenced by storm water discharge. Exposure to a broader suite of CECs was also characterized by passive sampling devices (PSDs), with estimated water concentrations of hydrophobic compounds correlated with Mytilus concentrations. The results underscore the need for focused CEC monitoring in coastal ecosystems and suggest that PSDs are complementary to bivalves in assessing water quality. Moreover, the partnership established among participating agencies led to increased spatial coverage, an expanded list of analytes and a more efficient use of available resources.

California↗

The influence of sampling interval on the accuracy of trail impact assessment

Trail impact assessment and monitoring (IA&M) programs have been growing in importance and application in recreation resource management at protected areas. Census-based and sampling-based approaches have been developed in such programs, with systematic point sampling being the most common survey design. This paper examines the influence of sampling interval on the accuracy of estimates for selected trail impact problems. A complete census of four impact types on 70 trails in Great Smoky Mountains National Park was utilized as the base data set for the analyses. The census data were resampled at increasing intervals to create a series of simulated point data sets. Estimates of frequency of occurrence and lineal extent for the four impact types were compared with the census data set. The responses of accuracy loss on lineal extent estimates to increasing sampling intervals varied across different impact types, while the responses on frequency of occurrence estimates were consistent, approximating an inverse asymptotic curve. These findings suggest that systematic point sampling may be an appropriate method for estimating the lineal extent but not the frequency of trail impacts. Sample intervals of less than 100 m appear to yield an excellent level of accuracy for the four impact types evaluated. Multiple regression analysis results suggest that appropriate sampling intervals are more likely to be determined by the type of impact in question rather than the length of trail. The census-based trail survey and the resampling-simulation method developed in this study can be a valuable first step in establishing long-term trail IA&M programs, in which an optimal sampling interval range with acceptable accuracy is determined before investing efforts in data collection.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

Comparison of aquatic invertebrate communities in near-shore areas with high or low boating activity

Lakeshore areas provide important habitat for aquatic invertebrates in shallow lakes. However, these zones are prone to anthropogenic disturbances that include shoreline development, urbanization, nutrient inputs, agricultural and(or) recreational use. Among recreational uses, public access sites are often developed to accommodate boaters and facilitate lake access via boat ramps. Although the ‘foot print’ associated with boat ramp structures can be relatively small compared to total shoreline coverage, little is known about the relative effects of boating activity on littoral zones and macroinvertebrate communities. In this study, we assess the relative impact of boating-related activities on aquatic macroinvertebrate communities at high-use (primary) and low-use (secondary) boat ramps on five glacial lakes of eastern South Dakota. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were dominated by few taxa that included Chironomidae, Corixidae, Caenidae, and Amphipoda. Moreover, boat ramp use did not influence abundance or diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates. Habitat, specifically substrate composition, was also similar between primary and secondary boat ramps despite more intense use associated with primary boat ramps. Our results support related findings that aquatic invertebrate assemblages in the Prairie Pothole Region are structured by regional environmental variability (climate, habitat, and water quality) resulting in communities with characteristically low diversity and tolerant taxa. This may explain why small-scale disturbance associated with boating activity has no discernable effect on macroinvertebrate assemblages in glacial lakes of the Prairie Pothole Region.

South Dakota↗

Automated deep learning-based point cloud classification on USGS 3DEP lidar data using transformer

The goal of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is to facilitate the acquisition of nationwide lidar data. Although data meet USGS lidar specifications, some point cloud tiles include noisy and incorrectly classified points. The enhanced accuracy of classified point clouds can improve support for many downstream applications such as hydrologic analysis, urban planning, and forest management. Despite noisy and incorrectly classified points, the current 3DEP classification specifications result in data that can be useful for Digital Terrain Model (DTM) extraction; however, the quality of the classification application can be improved to match state-of-the-art capabilities. Deep Learning (DL)-based approaches have been developed with outstanding performance for point cloud classification. This study will utilize the proven DL technologies to prepare for developing a user-friendly open-source toolkit that would automate classification to refine and enrich the results of existing and future 3DEP data.

Conference Paper↗

Identifying relationships between baseflow geochemistry and land use with synoptic sampling and R-mode factor analysis

The relationship between land use and stream chemistry is often explored through synoptic sampling of rivers at baseflow conditions. However, baseflow chemistry is likely to vary temporally and spatially with land use. The purpose of our study is to examine the usefulness of the synoptic sampling approach for identifying the relationship between complex land use configurations and stream water quality. This study compares biogeochemical data from three synoptic sampling events representing the temporal variability of baseflow chemistry and land use using R - mode factor analysis . Separate R - mode factor analyses of the data from individual sampling events yielded only two consistent factors. Agricultural activity was associated with elevated levels of Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , alkalinity, and frequently K + , SO 2- 4 , and NO - 3 . Urban areas were associated with higher concentrations of Na + , K + , and Cl - . Other retained factors were not consistent among sampling events, and some factors were difficult to interpret in the context of biogeochemical sources and processes. When all data were combined, further associations were revealed such as an inverse relationship between the proportion of wetlands and stream nitrate concentrations. We also found that barren lands were associated with elevated sulfate levels. This research suggests that an individual sampling event is unlikely to characterize adequately the complex processes controlling interactions between land use and stream chemistry. Combining data collected over two years during three synoptic sampling events appears to enhance our ability to understand processes linking stream chemistry and land use.

Michigan↗

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure were developed for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection a method for assessing whether streams are intermittent or perennial at a specific site in Massachusetts by estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at that site. This information could assist the environmental agencies who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line along each side of a perennial stream, with exceptions for some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the observed intermittent or perennial status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (defined as having no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, wastewater discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. This revised equation differs from the equation developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in that it is solely based on visual observations of the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites across Massachusetts and on the evaluation of several additional basin and land-use characteristics as potential explanatory variables in the logistic regression analysis. The revised equation estimated more accurately the intermittent or perennial status of the observed stream sites than the equation from the previous study. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as intermittent or perennial based on visual observation during low-flow periods from late July through early September 2001. The database of intermittent and perennial streams included a total of 351 naturally flowing (no regulation) sites, of which 85 were observed to be intermittent and 266 perennial. Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.04 to 10.96 square miles. Of the 66 stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles, 2 sites were intermittent and 64 sites were perennial. Thus, stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles were assumed to flow perennially, and the database used to develop the logistic regression equation included only those stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles. The database for the equation included 285 stream sites that had drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles, of which 83 sites were intermittent and 202 sites were perennial. Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of four explanatory variables: (1) drainage area (natural logarithm), (2) areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits, (3) areal percentage of forest land, and (4) region of the state (eastern region or western region). Although the equation provides an objective means of determining the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used in its development. The equation is not recommended for (1) losing stream reaches or (2) streams whose ground-water contributing areas do not coincide with their surface-water drainage areas, such as many streams draining the Southeast Coastal Region-the southern part of the South Coastal Basin, the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin, and the entire area of the Cape Cod and the Islands Basins. If the equation were used on a regulated stream site, the estimated intermittent or perennial status would reflect the natural flow conditions for that site. An automated mapping procedure was developed to determine the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites along reaches throughout a basin. The procedure delineates the drainage area boundaries, determines values for the four explanatory variables, and solves the equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at two locations on a headwater (first-order) stream reach-one near its confluence or end point and one near its headwaters or start point. The automated procedure then determines the intermittent or perennial status of the reach on the basis of the calculated probability values and a probability cutpoint (a stream is considered to flow perennially at a cutpoint of 0.56 or greater for this study) for the two locations or continues to loop upstream or downstream between locations less than and greater than the cutpoint of 0.56 to determine the transition point from an intermittent to a perennial stream. If the first-order stream reach is determined to be intermittent, the procedure moves to the next downstream reach and repeats the same process. The automated procedure then moves to the next first-order stream and repeats the process until the entire basin is mapped. A map of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin is provided on a CD-ROM that accompanies this report. The CD-ROM also contains ArcReader 9.0, a freeware product, that allows a user to zoom in and out, set a scale, pan, turn on and off map layers (such as a USGS topographic map), and print a map of the stream site with a scale bar. Maps of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in Massachusetts will provide city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Small reservoir distribution, rate of construction, and uses in the upper and middle Chattahoochee basins of the Georgia Piedmont, USA, 1950-2010

Construction of small reservoirs affects ecosystem processes in numerous ways including fragmenting stream habitat, altering hydrology, and modifying water chemistry. While the upper and middle Chattahoochee River basins within the Southeastern United States Piedmont contain few natural lakes, they have a high density of small reservoirs (more than 7500 small reservoirs in the nearly 12,000 km2 basin). Policymakers and water managers in the region have little information about small reservoir distribution, uses, or the cumulative inundation of land cover caused by small reservoir construction. Examination of aerial photography reveals the spatiotemporal patterns and extent of small reservoir construction from 1950 to 2010. Over that 60 year timeframe, the area inundated by water increased nearly six fold (from 19 reservoirs covering 0.16% of the study area in 1950 to 329 reservoirs covering 0.95% of the study area in 2010). While agricultural practices were associated with reservoir creation from 1950 to 1970, the highest rates of reservoir construction occurred during subsequent suburban development between 1980 and 1990. Land cover adjacent to individual reservoirs transitioned over time through agricultural abandonment, land reforestation, and conversion to development during suburban expansion. The prolific rate of ongoing small reservoir creation, particularly in newly urbanizing regions and developing counties, necessitates additional attention from watershed managers and continued scientific research into cumulative environmental impacts at the watershed scale.

Georgia↗

The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to historical climate variability and atmospheric CO2 in the United States

We use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, Version 4.1) and the land cover data set of the international geosphere-biosphere program to investigate how increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate variability during 1900-1994 affect the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous USA, and how carbon storage has been affected by land-use change. The estimates of TEM indicate that over the past 95 years a combination of increasing atmospheric CO2 with historical temperature and precipitation variability causes a 4.2% (4.3 Pg C) decrease in total carbon storage of potential vegetation in the conterminous US, with vegetation carbon decreasing by 7.2% (3.2 Pg C) and soil organic carbon decreasing by 1.9% (1.1 Pg C). Several dry periods including the 1930s and 1950s are responsible for the loss of carbon storage. Our factorial experiments indicate that precipitation variability alone decreases total carbon storage by 9.5%. Temperature variability alone does not significantly affect carbon storage. The effect of CO2 fertilization alone increases total carbon storage by 4.4%. The effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability are not additive. Interactions among CO2, temperature and precipitation increase total carbon storage by 1.1%. Our study also shows substantial year-to-year variations in net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems due to climate variability. Since the 1960s, we estimate these terrestrial ecosystems have acted primarily as a sink of atmospheric CO2 as a result of wetter weather and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For the 1980s, we estimate the natural terrestrial ecosystems, excluding cropland and urban areas, of the conterminous US have accumulated 78.2 Tg C yr-1 because of the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability. For the conterminous US, we estimate that the conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland and urban areas has caused a 18.2% (17.7 Pg C) reduction in total carbon storage from that estimated for potential vegetation. The carbon sink capacity of natural terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous US is about 69% of that estimated for potential vegetation.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗

Endocrine disrupting alkylphenolic chemicals and other contaminants in wastewater treatment plant effluents, urban streams, and fish in the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi River Regions

Urban streams are an integral part of the municipal water cycle and provide a point of discharge for wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents, allowing additional attenuation through dilution and transformation processes, as well as a conduit for transporting contaminants to downstream water supplies. Domestic and commercial activities dispose of wastes down-the-drain, resulting in wastewater containing complex chemical mixtures that are only partially removed during treatment. A key issue associated with WWTP effluent discharge into streams is the potential to cause endocrine disruption in fish. This study provides a long-term (1999-2009) evaluation of the occurrence of alkylphenolic endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and other contaminants discharged from WWTPs into streams in the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi River Regions (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio). The Greater Metropolitan Chicago Area Waterways, Illinois, were evaluated to determine contaminant concentrations in the major WWTP effluents and receiving streams, and assess the behavior of EDCs from their sources within the sewer collection system, through the major treatment unit processes at a WWTP, to their persistence and transport in the receiving stream. Water samples were analyzed for alkylphenolic EDCs and other contaminants, including 4-nonylphenol (NP), 4-nonylphenolpolyethoxylates (NPEO), 4-nonylphenolethoxycarboxylic acids (NPEC), 4-tert-octylphenol (OP), 4-tert-octylphenolpolyethoxylates (OPEO), bisphenol A, triclosan, ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA), and trace elements. All of the compounds were detected in all of the WWTP effluents, with EDTA and NPEC having the greatest concentrations. The compounds also were detected in the WWTP effluent dominated rivers. Multiple fish species were collected from river and lake sites and analyzed for NP, NPEO, NPEC, OP, and OPEO. Whole-body fish tissue analysis indicated widespread occurrence of alkylphenolic compounds, with the highest concentrations occurring in streams with the greatest WWTP effluent content. Biomarkers of endocrine disruption in the fish indicated long-term exposure to estrogenic chemicals in the wastewater impacted urban waterways.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Identifying candidate reference reaches to assess the physical and biological integrity of wadeable streams in different ecoregions and among stream sizes

Efforts to quantify disturbances to aquatic systems often use landscape-level metrics, presumably linked to ecological integrity, but fewer studies have directly linked ecological integrity to instream habitat, and applied these results to unsampled stream reaches throughout a landscape. We developed a flexible, quantitative approach that characterizes stream impairment across a landscape and identifies least-disturbed stream reaches to serve as benchmarks for high quality physical habitat and ecological integrity. Fish and macroinvertebrate community characteristics, reach-level physical habitat and water quality metrics were summarized in 891 wadeable stream reaches across two ecoregions in Missouri, USA. The influence of reach and water-quality characteristics as well as landscape-level variables on 7 fish and 3 macroinvertebrate community biological indicator metrics was then modeled using boosted regression trees (BRTs). On average, reach-level models explained more variance (25 and 27% in the two ecoregions examined) in biotic metrics than landscape-level models (18% and 20%). Abiotic and biotic associations differed among ecoregions and stream sizes, however, reach-level habitat (e.g., bankfull width/depth ratio, channel incision height) and water quality (e.g., dissolved oxygen, total chlorophyll) were consistently top predictors. At the landscape scale, fish richness in the agriculturally dominated ecoregion increased with decreased fragmentation/flow modification, while invertebrate metrics responded to agricultural disturbances. Invertebrate metrics in the forested ecoregion showed community degradation apparent with crop coverage as low as 8-10% of the riparian zone, while urban impairment was best detected using invertebrate indicators of biotic integrity and measures of fish trophic ecology. Relationships among landscape-scale variables and reach characteristics identified as top predictors in BRTs also highlighted potential mechanistic relationships among landscape, habitat, and measures of ecological integrity. Using the results of the landscape-level models, estimates for overall ecological integrity were predicted for over 28,000 stream reaches throughout Missouri, and a total of 1,423 candidate reference reaches were identified. The objective approach to characterizing stream impairment developed in this study offers specific advantages, including a reach and landscape-level evaluation of human disturbance as well as an inductive, multi-metric determination of ecological integrity.

Missouri↗

The Detroit River: Effects of contaminants and human activities on aquatic plants and animals and their habitats

Despite the extensive urbanization of its watershed, the Detroit River still supports diverse fish and wildlife populations. Conflicting uses of the river for waste disposal, water withdrawals, shipping, recreation, and fishing require innovative management. Chemicals added by man to the Detroit River have adversely affected the health and habitats of the river's plants and animals. In 1985, as part of an Upper Great Lakes Connecting Channels Study sponsored by Environment Canada and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, researchers exposed healthy bacteria, plankton, benthic macroinvertebrates, fish, and birds to Detroit River sediments and sediment porewater. Negative impacts included genetic mutations in bacteria; death of macroinvertebrates; accumulation of contaminants in insects, clams, fish, and ducks; and tumor formation in fish. Field surveys showed areas of the river bottom that were otherwise suitable for habitation by a variety of plants and animals were contaminated with chlorinated hydrocarbons and heavy metals and occupied only by pollution-tolerant worms. Destruction of shoreline wetlands and disposal of sewage and toxic substances in the Detroit River have reduced habitat and conflict with basic biological processes, including the sustained production of fish and wildlife. Current regulations do not adequately control pollution loadings. However, remedial actions are being formulated by the U.S. and Canada to restore degraded benthic habitats and eliminate discharges of toxic contaminants into the Detroit River.

Hydrobiologia↗

Lake water quality: Chapter 4 in A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave

Given the importance of the availability and quality of water in Lake Mead, it has become one of the most intensely sampled and studied bodies of water in the United States. As a result, data are available from sampling stations across the lake (fig. 4-1 and see U.S. Geological Survey Automated Water-Quality Platforms) to provide information on past and current (2012) water-quality conditions and on invasive species that influence—and are affected by—water quality. Water quality in Lakes Mead and Mohave generally exceeds standards set by the State of Nevada to protect water supplies for public uses: drinking water, aquatic ecosystem health, recreation, or agricultural irrigation. In comparison to other reservoirs studied by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for a national lake assessment (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010), Lake Mead is well within the highest or ‘good’ category for recreation and aquatic health (see U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment and Lake Mead for more details). While a small part of the lake, particularly Las Vegas Bay, is locally influenced by runoff from urbanized tributaries such as Las Vegas Wash, contaminant loading in the lake as a whole is low compared to other reservoirs in the nation, which are influenced by runoff from more heavily urbanized watersheds (Rosen and Van Metre, 2010).

Circular↗

Publications of the Western Geologic Mapping Team 1997-1998

The Western Geologic Mapping Team (WGMT) of the U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Division (USGS, GD), conducts geologic mapping and related topical earth-science studies in the western United States. This work is focused on areas where modern geologic maps and associated earth-science data are needed to address key societal and environmental issues such as ground-water quality, potential geologic hazards, and land-use decisions. Areas of primary emphasis currently include southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, the Pacific Northwest, the Las Vegas urban corridor, and selected National Park lands. The team has its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, and maintains smaller field offices at several other locations in the western United States. The results of research conducted by the WGMT are released to the public as a variety of databases, maps, text reports, and abstracts, both through the internal publication system of the USGS and in diverse external publications such as scientific journals and books. This report lists publications of the WGMT released in calendar years 1997 and 1998. Most of the publications listed were authored or coauthored by WGMT staff. However, the list also includes some publications authored by formal non-USGS cooperators with the WGMT, as well as some authored by USGS staff outside the WGMT in cooperation with WGMT projects. Several of the publications listed are available on the World Wide Web; for these, URL addresses are provided. Most of these Web publications are USGS open-file reports that contain large digital databases of geologic map and related information. For these, the bibliographic citation refers specifically to an explanatory pamphlet containing information about the content and accessibility of the database, not to the actual map or related information comprising the database itself.

Open-File Report↗

Differences in human versus lightning fires between urban and rural areas of the boreal forest in interior Alaska

In western North America, the carbon-rich boreal forest is experiencing warmer temperatures, drier conditions and larger and more frequent wildfires. However, the fire regime is also affected by direct human activities through suppression, ignition, and land use changes. Models are important predictive tools for understanding future conditions but they are based on regional generalizations of wildfire behavior and weather that do not adequately account for the complexity of human–fire interactions. To achieve a better understanding of the intensity of human influence on fires in this sparsely populated area and to quantify differences between human and lightning fires, we analyzed fires by both ignition types in regard to human proximity in urban (the Fairbanks subregion) and rural areas of interior Alaska using spatial (Geographic Information Systems) and quantitative analysis methods. We found substantial differences in drivers of wildfire: while increases in fire ignitions and area burned were caused by lightning in rural interior Alaska, in the Fairbanks subregion these increases were due to human fires, especially in the wildland urban interface. Lightning fires are starting earlier and fires are burning longer, which is much more pronounced in the Fairbanks subregion than in rural areas. Human fires differed from lightning fires in several ways: they started closer to settlements and highways, burned for a shorter duration, were concentrated in the Fairbanks subregion, and often occurred outside the brief seasonal window for lightning fires. This study provides important insights that improve our understanding of the direct human influence on recently observed changes in wildfire regime with implications for both fire modeling and fire management.

Alaska↗

Utility of aeromagnetic studies for mapping of potentially active faults in two forearc basins: Puget Sound, Washington, and Cook Inlet, Alaska

High-resolution aeromagnetic surveys over forearc basins can detect faults and folds in weakly magnetized sediments, thus providing geologic constraints on tectonic evolution and improved understanding of seismic hazards in convergent-margin settings. Puget Sound, Washington, and Cook Inlet, Alaska, provide two case histories. In each lowland region, shallow-source magnetic anomalies are related to active folds and/or faults. Mapping these structures is critical for understanding seismic hazards that face the urban regions of Seattle, Washington, and Anchorage, Alaska. Similarities in aeromagnetic anomaly patterns and magnetic stratigraphy between the two regions suggest that we can expect the aeromagnetic method to yield useful structural information that may contribute to earth-hazard and energy resource investigations in other forearc basins.

Alaska, Washington↗

Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California

Study Region We created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region is undergoing a dramatic reorganization of groundwater management under California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). Study Focus Understanding land-use and land-cover change supports long-term sustainable water management. Anthropogenic water demand has depleted groundwater aquifers worldwide, while future water shortages will likely affect land-use change, creating system feedbacks. Our novel participatory approach fused changes in land-use and associated water use from county-scale data to local water agencies’ estimates of total sustainable supply, scaling up local hydro-geologic knowledge from heterogeneous aquifers and diverse management approaches to a regional level. We assessed five stakeholder-driven scenarios with the same historic rates of urban and agricultural land-use change, but different water and land-use management, analyzing how management strategies altered both the spatial pattern of development and subsequent water sustainability from 2001 to 2061. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Transformative strategies using demand-side interventions that coupled water availability to land-use more effectively achieved long-term sustainability than adaptive strategies using supply-side interventions to increase water supplies. Limiting water withdrawals within SGMA regulated basins resulted in leakage of development into unregulated basins, increasing groundwater pumping there. Protecting ecosystems, farmlands, and recharge areas from development reduced leakage into undeveloped basins without negatively affecting water sustainability.

California↗

The weight of cities: Urbanization effects on Earth’s subsurface

Across the world, people increasingly choose to live in cities. By 2050, 70% of Earth's population will live in large urban areas. Upon considering a large city, questions arise such as, how much does that weigh? What are its effects on the landscape? Does it cause measurable subsidence? Here I calculate the weight of San Francisco Bay region urbanization, where 7.75 million people live at, or near the coast. It is difficult to account for everything that is in a city. I assume that most of the weight is buildings and their contents, which allows the use of base outline and height data to approximate their mass, which is cumulatively 1.6·10 12 kg. I build a series of finite element models to study effects of pressure exerted by the weight distribution. Within the elastic realm, I look at compression, flexure, isostatic compensation, stress change, dilatation, and fluid flow changes. Within the nonlinear realm I show example calculations of primary and secondary settlement of soils under load. The combined modeled subsidence from building loads is at least 5–80 mm, with the largest contributions coming from nonlinear settlement and creep in soils. A general result is closing of pore space and redirection of pore fluids. While the calculated subsidence of the Bay Area is relatively small compared with other sources of elevation change such as pumping and recharge of aquifers, all sources of subsidence are concerning given an expected 200–300 mm sea level rise at San Francisco by the year 2050.

AGU Advances↗