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Results for “Land Use and Land Cover”

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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources
USGS1999

The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to historical climate variability and atmospheric CO2 in the United States

We use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, Version 4.1) and the land cover data set of the international geosphere-biosphere program to investigate how increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate variability during 1900-1994 affect the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous USA, and how carbon storage has been affected by land-use change. The estimates of TEM indicate that over the past 95 years a combination of increasing atmospheric CO2 with historical temperature and precipitation variability causes a 4.2% (4.3 Pg C) decrease in total carbon storage of potential vegetation in the conterminous US, with vegetation carbon decreasing by 7.2% (3.2 Pg C) and soil organic carbon decreasing by 1.9% (1.1 Pg C). Several dry periods including the 1930s and 1950s are responsible for the loss of carbon storage. Our factorial experiments indicate that precipitation variability alone decreases total carbon storage by 9.5%. Temperature variability alone does not significantly affect carbon storage. The effect of CO2 fertilization alone increases total carbon storage by 4.4%. The effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability are not additive. Interactions among CO2, temperature and precipitation increase total carbon storage by 1.1%. Our study also shows substantial year-to-year variations in net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems due to climate variability. Since the 1960s, we estimate these terrestrial ecosystems have acted primarily as a sink of atmospheric CO2 as a result of wetter weather and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For the 1980s, we estimate the natural terrestrial ecosystems, excluding cropland and urban areas, of the conterminous US have accumulated 78.2 Tg C yr-1 because of the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate variability. For the conterminous US, we estimate that the conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland and urban areas has caused a 18.2% (17.7 Pg C) reduction in total carbon storage from that estimated for potential vegetation. The carbon sink capacity of natural terrestrial ecosystems in the conterminous US is about 69% of that estimated for potential vegetation.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗
USGS2015

Implications of climate and land use change

This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.

Book chapter↗
USGS1996

Trends in surface-water quality in Connecticut, 1969-88

Surface-water-quality data from selected monitoring stations in Connecticut were analyzed for trend, using the Seasonal Kendall test, for water years 1969-88, 1975-88, and 1981-88. The number of constituents and stations evaluated varied with the different time periods. The 39 monitoring stations included 26 freshwater streams with associated discharge data, 7 tidally affected streams, 4 harbor stations, and 2 surface impoundments. Flow-adjustment procedures were used where possible to minimize the effects of stream- flow variability on trend results. The drainage area of the monitoring stations includes approximately 5,000 mi 2 covering the State of Connecticut and about 11,000 mi 2 in upstream drainage areas outside of the State. Drainage basin size for the freshwater streams ranges from 4.1 mi 2 to 9,660 mi 2 . Land uses in the drainage basins range from undeveloped forested areas to highly urbanized metropolitan areas. During the period covered by the trend study, the State's population has grown, suburban development has increased, agricultural land use has decreased, and wastewater-treatment practices have improved. Increases in specific conductance and in the concentrations of calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulfate, dissolved solids, and total solids were geographically widespread and numerous during water years 1975-88 and indicate a general increase statewide in dissolved constituents in streamflow, both in urbanized and less developed areas. The effects of increasing urbanization, including municipal and industrial wastewater, septic system leachate, nonpoint runoff, and atmospheric deposition of contaminants, are possible causes for these increases. Decreases in turbidity and in the concentrations of total phosphorus, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria were geographically widespread and numerous during 1975-88. This general decrease in suspended material and bacteria may be attributable to basic improvements in the treatment of municipal and industrial wastewater during the period of record. Decreasing concentrations of total phosphorus may also be related to decreases in agricultural land use and to a decline in the use of detergents containing phosphorus. Detected decreases in total organic carbon and turbidity may have been caused, in part, by changes in sampling or analytical methods. Increases in total nitrogen, total organic nitrogen, and total nitrite-plus- nitrate were geographically widespread and numerous during 1975-88 and appear to indicate effects from both point sources in urbanized basins and nonpoint sources in less developed basins. The number of stations with increasing concentrations of nitrogen constituents was much smaller during 1981-88 than during 1975-88. Decreases in total ammonia nitrogen were detected at 11 stations during 1981-88. Decreases in total ammonia, sometimes paired with increases in total nitrite-plus-nitrate, may result from improvements in wastewater treatment. Increases in the concentration of dissolved oxygen, or dissolved oxygen as a percent of saturation, were geographically widespread and numerous during 1969-88 and 1975-88. Increases were less common during 1981-88. Increases in dissolved oxygen in urbanized basins may be related to major improvements in wastewater treatment during the 1970's and 1980's. The magnitude of the trends detected during 1969-88 may have been affected in part by a change, around 1974, in the model of the instrument used to measure dissolved oxygen in the field. Statewide increases in pH were detected during 1969-88, 1975-88, and 1981-88, in both urbanized and less developed basins. The widespread increases in pH were unexpected, given the relatively acidic quality of precipitation in the region during the study period. Only two decreases in pH were detected, both in relatively undeveloped basins. Increases in pH in urbanized areas may be related to decreasing concentrations of ammonia and to requirements for neutralization of municipal and industrial wastewater.

Connecticut↗
USGS2019

Nutritional status of honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) workers across an agricultural land-use gradient

Land use and habitat quality have emerged as critical factors influencing the health, productivity, and survival of honey bee colonies. However, characterization of the mechanistic relationship between differential land-use conditions and ultimate outcomes for honey bee colonies has been elusive. We assessed the physiological health of individual worker honey bees in colonies stationed across a gradient of agricultural land use to ask whether indicators of nutritional physiology including glycogen, total sugar, lipids, and protein were associated with land-use conditions over the growing season and colony population size the subsequent spring during almond pollination. Across the observed land-use gradient, we found that September lipid levels related to growing-season land use, with honey bees from apiaries surrounded by more favorable land covers such as grassland, pasture, conservation land, and fallow fields having greater lipid reserves. Further, we observed a significant effect of total protein during September on population size of colonies during almond pollination the following February. We demonstrate and discuss the utility of quantifying nutritional biomarkers to infer land-use quality and predict colony population size.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2018

Persistence-based area prioritization for conservation: Applying occupancy and habitat threats and risks analyses

Effective habitat conservation is predicated on maintaining high levels or increasing local persistence probability of the species it purports to protect. Thus, methodological approaches that improve the inferential value of local persistence are of utmost value to guide conservation planning as they inform area selection processes. Herein we used the painted bunting Passerina ciris, a species of conservation interest in North Carolina, as an illustrative case that combined single-season, single-species occupancy analyses and a threats and risk decision support tool to rank five areas of conservation interest in terms of local persistence probability. We used survey data from two seasons (2008–2009) grouped into 21 natal dispersal sampling units and land-cover data from 12 habitat classes to establish the relationship between local occupancy probability and habitat. Occupancy increased most strongly with increasing amount of maritime forest. Projections to year 2050, relative to year 2000, indicated that a potential loss of maritime forest of 200–1,300 ha, depending on the area of interest. Projected loss was lowest at Bald Head Island–Wilmington (2%) and highest at Camp Lejune (27%). Bald Head Island–Wilmington ranked highest in projected local persistence probability (0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.53–0.99), whereas Top Sail–Hammocks Beach Park ranked lowest (0.28; 95% CI = 0.03–0.82). Estimates of local persistence offer decision-makers another criterion to prioritize areas for conservation and help guide efforts aimed at maintaining or enhancing local persistence. These include in situ habitat management, expanding or connecting existing areas of interest. In the future, we recommend the use of multiseason occupancy models, coupled with measures of uncertainty of land-cover projections, to strengthen inferences about local persistence, particularly useful in nonstationary landscapes driven by human activities.

North Carolina↗
USGS2018

Nearshore sediment monitoring for the Stormwater Action Monitoring (SAM) Program, Puget Sound, western Washington

Chemicals such as metals and organics (polychlorinated biphenyl [PCBs], polybrominated diphenyl ethers [PBDEs], polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs], and phthalates) continue to enter Puget Sound, western Washington, from point sources (such as industrial and municipal outfalls) and combined sewer outfalls and non-point sources (such as stormwater runoff). Runoff during storm events has been identified as a major source of contamination entering Puget Sound and has been implicated in the degradation of nearshore habitats and biota. Metals, organic chemicals, and other pollutants are known to accumulate in sediments such as those present along the shoreline of Puget Sound. In addition to chemical contaminants, small plastic particles (known as microplastics), found in marine waters of Puget Sound and suspected of being in aquatic sediments, are a potential concern because they can be ingested by animals and are suspected of transporting sorbed chemicals such as PCBs and metals. The Stormwater Work Group of Puget Sound (SWG) (composed of State and municipal stormwater permittees, and other stakeholders) developed a strategy to address sediment conditions in the nearshore environment of Puget Sound. As part of this strategy, the SWG developed a regional stormwater monitoring strategy designed to inform monitoring requirements in National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) stormwater permits issued by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology). The monitoring program is referred to as the Stormwater Action Monitoring (SAM). The overall focus of the work described in this report is to address one of the goals of SAM, which is to characterize the status, spatial extent, and quality of Puget Sound sediment chemicals in the nearshore urban areas. The nearshore urban areas are defined as areas parallel to established Urban Growth Areas (UGAs) using a spatially balanced probabilistic Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) sampling design. One of the benefits of the GRTS sampling design used for this study is that it allows one to efficiently extrapolate from a relatively small number of sampled nearshore sites to the entire nearshore shoreline within the 2011 defined UGA boundaries of Puget Sound. In addition to characterizing nearshore sediment chemical concentrations, this study also characterized the abundance of microplastics in the nearshore sediment. A total of 41 randomly selected sites were sampled throughout Puget Sound in summer and early autumn of 2016. All sampling sites were located at 6 feet below the Mean Lower Low Water line. The top 2–3 centimeters of sediment were collected using a boat-mounted, pre-cleaned stainless-steel box corer. All chemical samples were sieved to 2 millimeters and placed in appropriate containers for chemical analysis for PCBs, PBDEs, PAHs, phthalates, metals, total organic carbon, and grain size. Pre-sieved sediment samples were stored in glass containers for microplastic analysis. Nearshore sediment chemical concentrations were summarized using numerous statistical approaches to examine the minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations for each of the compounds analyzed and to compare the results to criteria and other nearshore and marine sediment studies. The GRTS sampling design also allowed the authors to assess the percentage of the UGA nearshore environment that did not meet established standards or criteria for each chemical analyzed. Additionally, regression and machine learning statistical analyses were used to examine relations between measured chemical concentrations, and land cover and geologic features at multiple scales within the watersheds adjacent to sampling sites. The influence of marine hydrodynamic factors on nearshore sediment chemical concentrations was statistically evaluated with nonparametric methods by assigning each sampling site to one of five nearshore drift cell types based on its location. The Puget Sound shoreline can be divided into segments, referred to as drift cells, based on the movement of sediment along the shore by waves. Each drift cell type has a unique influence on nearshore sediment transport. The nearshore sediment chemical concentrations for organics and metals generally were low, and in most cases less than Washington State criteria. The concentrations of some PAHs were greater than the criteria, but these exceedances were limited to one or two sites. The results of the probabilistic study design determined that, for the PAHs examined, 96 percent or more of the 1,344 km of shoreline represented by this study had concentrations less than any established criteria. For the remaining organics (PCBs and PBDEs), the probabilistic study design indicates that more than 98 percent of shoreline examined had concentrations less than criteria or proposed standards. For the metals, the results of the study indicate that 100 percent of the nearshore sediment had concentrations less than the criteria. The relations between sediment organic and metal concentrations, and adjacent watershed land cover and the particle size of the samples, were determined to be weakly related. Although weakly related, the particle size of the sediment in a sample typically explained more of the variation in metal concentrations than organics. While the measured watershed attributes adjacent to the sampling sites and sediment size of the samples were weakly related to chemical concentrations, they were significantly related to unique drift cells along the shoreline of Puget Sound known as drift cells. Each drift cell represents a long-term directional transport of sediment from its source to its depositional zone. Sediment chemical concentrations were significantly higher in drift cells with limited sediment movement compared to those with higher sediment transport energy. Microplastics in the nearshore sediment ranged from 0.02 to 0.65 pieces per gram of sediment, with a mean of 0.19 pieces per gram of sediment, and were dominated by small fibers (355–1,000 micrometers). Like chemical concentrations, microplastics concentrations in the nearshore sediment were poorly related to watershed land cover. Although not significantly different, microplastics concentrations generally were higher in the low energy drift cells compared to the high energy drift cells. The results of this study provide a statistically valid status assessment of current nearshore sediment chemical conditions throughout Puget Sound in those areas adjacent to defined UGAs. In addition to the study findings of relatively low concentrations of PCBs, PBDEs, PAHs, phthalates, and metals, the study design provides a statistically valid tool for evaluating changes in these compounds over time if future nearshore sediment assessments are done. Furthermore, the assessment of microplastic abundance represents the first study of its kind that can be used as a benchmark for future evaluations. The results of this study will help inform Ecology in the implementation of monitoring requirements as part of its NPDES stormwater permitting process.

Washington↗
USGS2021

How well do proxy species models inform conservation of surrogate species?

Context Proxy species, which represent suites of organisms with similar habitat requirements, are common in conservation. Landscape Capability (LC) models aim to quantify the spatially-explicit capability of landscapes to support proxy species that represent suites of forest birds. Objectives We evaluated the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NALCC) proxy models of LC and represented species framework across 13 states in the northeastern United States from Virginia to Maine. We validated a suite of questions related to co-occurrence of proxy and represented species with a compilation of independent datasets. Methods We tested proxy species LC models ability to explain represented species’ occurrences, including using multiple proxies together, and benchmarked against empirical data and land cover type classifications. We tested effect of several factors on predictive ability including relative range overlap and ecological and taxonomic dissimilarity between proxy and represented species. Results LC models performed variably, but represented species occurrences were rarely predicted as accurately as proxy species. Models improved predictions over macrohabitat classifications. Using multiple proxies together occasionally improved predictions of represented species. Considerable range overlap was needed for models to be predictive of represented species. Ecological and taxonomic similarity had no effect on predictive ability. LC models worked similarly to using empirical observations, suggesting shortcomings were because of imperfect surrogacy. Conclusions Conservation proxies as representatives of species groups that are associated with macrohabitats are useful, but empirical data are necessary to evaluate proxy species’ effectiveness. Habitat-based models can provide similar predictive ability as empirical observations of proxies and represent a useful tool in conservation planning.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2014

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

A multi-scale segmentation approach to filling gaps in Landsat ETM+ SLC-off images

On 31 May 2003, the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+) Scan Line Corrector (SLC) failed, causing the scanning pattern to exhibit wedge-shaped scan-to-scan gaps. We developed a method that uses coincident spectral data to fill the image gaps. This method uses a multi-scale segment model, derived from a previous Landsat SLC-on image (image acquired prior to the SLC failure), to guide the spectral interpolation across the gaps in SLC-off images (images acquired after the SLC failure). This paper describes the process used to generate the segment model, provides details of the gap-fill algorithm used in deriving the segment-based gap-fill product, and presents the results of the gap-fill process applied to grassland, cropland, and forest landscapes. Our results indicate this product will be useful for a wide variety of applications, including regional-scale studies, general land cover mapping (e.g. forest, urban, and grass), crop-specific mapping and monitoring, and visual assessments. Applications that need to be cautious when using pixels in the gap areas include any applications that require per-pixel accuracy, such as urban characterization or impervious surface mapping, applications that use texture to characterize landscape features, and applications that require accurate measurements of small or narrow landscape features such as roads, farmsteads, and riparian areas.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗
USGS2023

Volcanic aquifers of Hawaiʻi—Contributions to assessing groundwater availability on Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui

The volcanic aquifers of the Hawaiian Islands supply water to 1.46 million residents, diverse industries, and a large component of the U.S. military in the Pacific. Groundwater also supplies fresh water that supports ecosystems in streams and near the coast. Hawaii’s aquifers are remarkably productive given their small size, but the capacity of the islands to store fresh groundwater is limited because each island is surrounded by seawater, and salt water underlies much of the fresh groundwater. The amount of fresh groundwater available for human use from Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers is constrained by the consequences of groundwater withdrawal. Restrictions placed on these consequences can translate to limitations on groundwater availability. Changes in recharge resulting from changes in land cover or climate can alter the effect of withdrawals. This study uses numerical models of the volcanic aquifers of the islands of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui to quantify the consequences of historical and plausible future withdrawals and changes in recharge. The study compares the results of model simulations of multiple scenarios of historical and projected future withdrawal and recharge. Results of the simulations using the groundwater models of the islands of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui have implications for other islands in Hawai‘i. Since the first modern water well was drilled in Hawai‘i in 1879, total groundwater withdrawals on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui have risen to nearly 400 million gallons per day. Model simulations indicate that these withdrawals have caused reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and springs, reductions in groundwater discharge to the ocean, changes in subsurface flow between sectors within an island, lowering of groundwater levels, and rise of the interface between fresh water and salt water in the aquifers. Future increases in withdrawals will increase the severity of the consequences. Changes in recharge can alter the effect of withdrawals—increases in recharge can offset the consequences of withdrawals, whereas decreases in recharge can exacerbate the effects of withdrawals. This study quantifies the consequences of withdrawals for past and plausible future circumstances. The models can be used to test other circumstances. Limits placed on the consequences of withdrawals—such as restrictions to protect stream or coastal ecosystems that rely on groundwater discharge and limitations on water-level decline and rise of the freshwater-saltwater interface to protect the productivity of existing wells—can translate to limits on groundwater availability from Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers. Setting acceptable limits to the consequences of groundwater withdrawal is also a critical part of assessing groundwater availability. Once these limits are set, numerical models can be used to quantify the amount of water that can be withdrawn within those limits and thereby inform management decisions that seek to balance the need to limit the consequences of groundwater withdrawals with the need to develop water for human use.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Predicting the occurrence of chemicals of emerging concern in surface water and sediment across the U.S. portion of the Great Lakes Basin

Chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) are introduced into the aquatic environment via various sources, posing a potential risk to aquatic organisms. Previous studies have identified relationships between the presence of CECs in water and broad-scale watershed characteristics. However, relationships between the presence of CECs and source-related watershed characteristics have not been explored across the Great Lakes basin. Boosted regression tree (BRT) analyses were used to develop predictive models of CEC occurrence in water and sediment throughout 24 U.S. tributaries to the Great Lakes. Models were based on the distribution of both broad-scale and source-related watershed characteristics. Twenty-one upstream watershed characteristics, including land cover, number of permitted point sources, and distance to point sources were used to develop models predicting the probability of CEC occurrence in surface water and bottom sediment. Total accuracy of BRT models ranged from 66% to 94% for both matrices. All 21 watershed characteristics were important predictor variables in at least one surface-water model; twenty were important in at least one bottom-sediment model. Among the model variables, developed land use and distance to point sources were important predictors of the presence of CEC classes in both water and sediment. Although limitations exist, BRT models are one tool available for assessing vulnerability of fisheries and aquatic resources to CEC occurrences.

Great Lakes basin↗
USGS2014

Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada

Changes in climate are often assumed result in changes to species’ ranges, with potential impacts on natural system functioning and ecosystem services. ‘Climate envelope models’, which rely on correlations between climate and species distributions, have been used to predict the future of biodiversity under these assumptions. However, other factors including land-cover, dispersal ability and interspecific competition and facilitation may play an important role in driving species distributions and population trends either alone or in combination with climate. In an ongoing project, we used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance to develop climate envelope and land-use models for 161 species in order to provide a multi-species test of the degree to which climate envelope versus land-use models are useful in predicting species distributions and population trends of birds in forest ecosystems of the western U.S. and Canada. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can be used for some species to predict changes through time, and that changes in climate have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America. For other species, models using land-use variables including raw remote-sensing variables may provide the best predictions for abundance change. The results of this research showing the reliability of models across multiple species will aid managers in understanding which species are most vulnerable to changes from climate, land-use change and their interaction.

Final Report↗
USGS2021

Occurrence, resource use, and demography of the common raven in North America: A research synthesis

We reviewed the scientific literature to inventory existing studies of common raven ( Corvus corax ; raven) ecology in western North America. We conducted an intial literature review between June 2015 and March 2018. Prior to completing our review, we revisited the published literature for any additional relevant studies in July 2021. Our goal was to identify knowledge gaps and to synthesize the current understanding of environmental features that may support raven populations that pose general threats to biodiversity and sensitive species in particular. We focused our review on studies with direct conservation applications related to 3 processes of raven ecology: occurrence, resource use, and demography. We identified covariates that researchers associated with these processes of raven ecology, and we also quantified the geographic distribution of studies. Our review identified 54 studies, with an increasing number of studies published per decade and a geographic bias characterized by more studies conducted in the Mojave and Columbia Plateau ecoregions than elsewhere. Most studies (44) reported on a single ecological process, but 10 studies reported on multiple ecological processes. Results related to raven occurrence appeared 31 times; demographic results appeared 21 times; and resource use was reported 17 times. We also identified 13 explanatory covariates regularly invoked to explain variation in raven ecological processes. Greater attention was given to covariates including vegetation land cover, human settlement, recreation, and linear rights-of-ways than were used to explain variation in ecological processes. Most demographic studies investigated raven reproduction exclusively, but a small number of studies considered raven survival exclusively or in combination with reproduction. Along with a detailed summary of individual studies provided as an appendix, we intend for our findings to serve as a reference and to help identify future research priorities.

Human–Wildlife Interactions↗
USGS2010

Land-Use Analysis and Simulated Effects of Land-Use Change and Aggregate Mining on Groundwater Flow in the South Platte River Valley, Brighton to Fort Lupton, Colorado

Land use in the South Platte River valley between the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, Colo., is undergoing change as urban areas expand, and the extent of aggregate mining in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area is increasing as the demand for aggregate grows in response to urban development. To improve understanding of land-use change and the potential effects of land-use change and aggregate mining on groundwater flow, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, analyzed socioeconomic and land-use trends and constructed a numerical groundwater flow model of the South Platte alluvial aquifer in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area. The numerical groundwater flow model was used to simulate (1) steady-state hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040, (2) transient cumulative hydrologic effects of the potential extent of reclaimed aggregate pits in 2020 and 2040, (3) transient hydrologic effects of actively dewatered aggregate pits, and (4) effects of different hypothetical pit spacings and configurations on groundwater levels. The SLEUTH (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation, and Hillshade) urban-growth modeling program was used to predict the extent of urban area in 2020 and 2040. Wetlands in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area were mapped as part of the study, and mapped wetland locations and areas of riparian herbaceous vegetation previously mapped by the Colorado Division of Wildlife were compared to simulation results to indicate areas where wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation might be affected by groundwater-level changes resulting from land-use change or aggregate mining. Analysis of land-use conditions in 1957, 1977, and 2000 indicated that the general distribution of irrigated land and non-irrigated land remained similar from 1957 to 2000, but both land uses decreased as urban area increased. Urban area increased about 165 percent from 1957 to 1977 and about 56 percent from 1977 to 2000 with most urban growth occurring east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation corridors. Land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 predicted by the SLEUTH modeling program indicated urban growth will continue to develop primarily east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation routes, but substantial urban growth also is predicted south and west of Brighton. Steady-state simulations of the hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 indicated groundwater levels declined less than 2 feet relative to simulated groundwater levels in 2000. Groundwater levels declined most where irrigated land was converted to urban area and least where non-irrigated land was converted to urban area. Simulated groundwater-level declines resulting from land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 are not predicted to substantially affect wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation in the study area because the declines are small and wetlands and riparian herbaceous vegetation generally are not located where simulated declines occur. See Report PDF for unabridged abstract.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

Applied Geography↗
USGS2011

Seasonal habitat use and selection by grizzly bears in Northern British Columbia

We defined patterns of habitat use and selection by female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Besa-Prophet watershed of northern British Columbia. We fitted 13 adult females with Geographic Positioning System (GPS) radio-collars and monitored them between 2001 and 2004. We examined patterns of habitat selection by grizzly bears relative to topographical attributes and 3 potential surrogates of food availability: land-cover class, vegetation biomass or quality (as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and selection value for prey species themselves (moose [Alces alces], elk [Cervus elaphus], woodland caribou [Rangifer tarandus]. Stone's sheep [Ovis dalli stonei]). Although vegetation biomass and quality, and selection values for prey were important in seasonal selection by some individual bears, land-cover class, elevation, aspect, and vegetation diversity most influenced patterns of habitat selection across grizzly bears, which rely on availability of plant foods and encounters with ungulate prey. Grizzly bears as a group avoided conifer stands and areas of low vegetation diversity, and selected for burned land-cover classes and high vegetation diversity across seasons. They also selected mid elevations from what was available within seasonal ranges. Quantifying relative use of different attributes helped place selection patterns within the context of the landscape. Grizzly bears used higher elevations (1,595 ± 31 m SE) in spring and lower elevations (1,436 ± 27 m) in fall; the range of average elevations used among individuals was highest (500 m) during the summer. During all seasons, grizzly bears most frequented aspects with high solar gain. Use was distributed across 10 land-cover classes and depended on season. Management and conservation actions must maintain a diverse habitat matrix distributed across a large elevational gradient to ensure persistence of grizzly bears as levels of human access increase in the northern Rocky Mountains.

Northern British Columbia↗
USGS2015

Estuarine bed-sediment-quality data collected in New Jersey and New York after Hurricane Sandy, 2013

This report describes a reconnaissance study of estuarine bed-sediment quality conducted June–October 2013 in New Jersey and New York after Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 to assess the extent of contamination and the potential long-term human and ecological impacts of the storm. The study, funded through the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 (PL 113-2), was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. In addition to presenting the bed-sediment-quality data, the report describes the study design, documents the methods of sample collection and analysis, and discusses the steps taken to assure the quality of the data. Bed-sediment samples were collected from June to October 2013 from 167 estuarine sites extending from Cape May, New Jersey, to the New York Harbor and the eastern end of Long Island. Each sampling location and study region was characterized by using geographic information to identify potential contaminant sources. Characterizations included land cover, locations and types of businesses (industrial, financial, and others), spills (sewage, chemical, and others), bulk storage facilities, effluent discharges within 2 kilometers of the sampling point, and discharges within inundated and non-inundated regions near the sampling location. Samples were analyzed for particle size, total organic carbon, metals and trace elements, semivolatile organic compounds, wastewater compounds, hormones, and sediment toxicity. Samples were also screened using x-ray fluorescence, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and x-ray diffraction. In addition, bioassays for endocrine disruptors and protein phosphatase 2A inhibition were conducted. The study was designed to provide the data needed to understand the extent and sources of contamination resulting from Hurricane Sandy, to compare the chemistry and toxicity of estuarine bed sediments before and after the storm, and to evaluate the usefulness of rapid screening and bioassay approaches in disaster settings.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS2004

Total mercury and methylmercury in fish fillets, water, and bed sediments from selected streams in the Delaware River basin, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, 1998-2001

Within the Delaware River Basin, fish-tissue samples were analyzed for total mercury (tHg). Water and bed-sediment samples were analyzed for tHg and methylmercury (MeHg), and methylation efficiencies were calculated. This study was part of a National Mercury Pilot Program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The Delaware River Basin was chosen because it is part of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment Program that integrates physical, chemical, and biological sampling efforts to determine status and trends in surface-water and ground-water resources. Of the 35 sites in the study, 31 were sampled for fish. The species sampled at these sites include smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), the target species, and where smallmouth bass could not be collected, brown trout (Salmo trutta), chain pickerel (Esox niger), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), and rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris). There were a total of 32 fish samples; 7 of these exceeded the 0.3 microgram per gram wet-weight mercury (Hg) concentration set for human health by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and 27 of these exceeded the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service criteria of 0.1 microgram per gram wet weight for the protection of fish-eating birds and wildlife. Basinwide analysis of Hg in fish, water, and bed sediment showed tHg concentration in fillets correlated positively with population density, urban land cover, and impervious land surface. Negative correlations included wetland land cover, septic density, elevation, and latitude. Smallmouth bass from the urban sites had a higher median concentration of tHg than fish from agricultural, low intensity-agricultural, or forested sites. Concentrations of tHg and MeHg in water were higher in samples from the more urbanized areas of the basin and were positively correlated with urbanization and negatively correlated with forested land cover. Methylation efficiency of water was negatively correlated with urbanization. Bed-sediment patterns were similar to those observed in water. Concentrations of tHg were higher in samples from the urbanized areas. In the more forested areas, MeHg concentrations were higher than in other land-use areas. Concentrations of tHg in bed sediment were positively correlated with urbanization factors (population, urban land cover, and impervious land surface) and negatively correlated with forested land cover and elevation. Forested land cover and latitude were positively correlated with concentrations of MeHg. The methylation efficiency was higher in samples from the forested areas and was negatively correlated with urbanization. Analyses within land-use groups showed that tHg concentrations in fish fillets from the urban sites were positively correlated with forested land cover and wetland cover. Urbanization factors within the agricultural group were positively correlated with tHg in fish; concentrations of tHg in fish from sites in the low intensity-agricultural group were negatively correlated with urbanization factors. Within the agricultural land-use group, tHg concentrations in water were negatively correlated with septic density, and MeHg concentrations were negatively correlated with elevation. In the forested and low intensity-agricultural groups, MeHg in water was negatively correlated with forested and agricultural land cover. Methylation efficiency in water also was negatively correlated with forested land cover but positively correlated with agricultural land cover. Bed-sediment concentrations of tHg in the forested and low-agricultural groups were positively correlated with agricultural land cover and negatively correlated with forested land cover. Concentrations of MeHg in bed sediment were positively correlated with septic density and drainage area and negatively correlated with forested land cover. Methylation efficiency was negatively correlated with population density, agricultural land cover, and sulfate concentrations in water. An urbanization effect was observed in all three media—fish, water, and bed sediment. Different factors, basinwide and within land-use groups, showed a complex relation. Additional sampling within these land-use groups could help characterize interrelations of Hg in the environment to fish in the Delaware River Basin.

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗