USGS Science⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70158935

Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada

Matthew G. Betts·Susan Shirley·Joan Hagar
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Changes in climate are often assumed result in changes to species’ ranges, with potential impacts on natural system functioning and ecosystem services. ‘Climate envelope models’, which rely on correlations between climate and species distributions, have been used to predict the future of biodiversity under these assumptions. However, other factors including land-cover, dispersal ability and interspecific competition and facilitation may play an important role in driving species distributions and population trends either alone or in combination with climate. In an ongoing project, we used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance to develop climate envelope and land-use models for 161 species in order to provide a multi-species test of the degree to which climate envelope versus land-use models are useful in predicting species distributions and population trends of birds in forest ecosystems of the western U.S. and Canada. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can be used for some species to predict changes through time, and that changes in climate have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America. For other species, models using land-use variables including raw remote-sensing variables may provide the best predictions for abundance change. The results of this research showing the reliability of models across multiple species will aid managers in understanding which species are most vulnerable to changes from climate, land-use change and their interaction.

Explore related subjects

Final ReportReport
90° N90° S · 180° W ← longitude → 180° E
Source-reported bounding extent: 30.145956114275933° to 57.4706888294275° latitude; -135.52124935448506° to -90.86042755476569° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Matthew G. Betts, Susan Shirley, Joan Hagar. 2014. Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70158935

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Future of the Colorado River phase 2: Integrated operation of the Powell/Grand Canyon/Mead segment for water supply, hydropower, and river ecosystems

State and federal agencies are negotiating water-supply agreements that may govern water supply and storage in the Colorado River Basin through 2046. Current operating policies in the Colorado River primarily focus on water supply implications with less focus on the potential effects to other resources. Models that forecast the response of multiple resources over the short- and long-term term to water supply decisions could lead to greater consideration of these resources in future water supply decision making. In this project, we developed a dynamic programming tool to identify potential release decisions that help maximize different management objectives under different scenarios for storing water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell in attempt to inform efforts to consider multiple resources. We ask, “ How can decisions under different reservoir storage scenarios affect river resource management objectives, what are the trade-offs among these objectives, and how can we consider more resources when making water supply decisions? ”.

Colorado River↗
USGS2026

Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north

As environmental conditions change, land managers are increasingly concerned about the potential for new aquatic invasive species to move into their jurisdictions. Because managers may have limited resources, detecting invasive species early is important as prevention is more effective and less costly than ongoing mitigation of established populations. Tools built to assist early detection efforts often use information on pathways of spread (how species move through a landscape) and maps of suitability (where habitat allows a species to live and reproduce). While each is useful, information on pathways or suitability alone provides only a part of the story of invasion risk. To better anticipate the risk of invasive species expanding their ranges into the Northeast U.S., there is a need to improve the way we combine and use pathways and suitability information, especially across large areas (e.g., states, regions). To fill this need, we took a new approach that combines estimates of current and future suitability with a diverse variety of pathways that gives us invasion risk scores for more than 100 freshwater invaders (fishes, plants, and invertebrates) across the Northeast U.S. In this report, we provide an overview of our methodology, results, and a description of the ongoing work to make the data publicly available. This work can be used to aid early detection efforts and associated management activities at state and local levels, including the identification of invasion risk hotspots and ranking of individual species risk to help anticipate and prevent invader establishment.

northeast United States↗