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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Drought-caused delay in nesting of Sonoran Desert birds and its facilitation of parasite- and predator-mediated variation in reproductive success

As our understanding of climate change has increased, so has our awareness of the impacts of these changes on biotic systems. Climate models are nearly unanimous in their predictions for increased drought frequency in southwestern North America, and delays in nest initiation due to drought may influence nesting success and productivity for many Sonoran Desert bird species. In southeastern California and western Arizona in 2004–2009, we found negative correlations for 13 of 13 species between nest initiation date and rainfall accumulation during the preceding 4-month winter rainy season. Nesting was delayed more than 3 weeks for some species during extreme droughts in 2006 and 2007. During 2004–2009, we found a significant negative effect of nest initiation date on nest survival probability (β̂ = −0.031 ± 0.005 SE, P < 0.001) for the four species of greatest sample size. To investigate the role of nesting delay in nesting success and productivity, in 2010 we conducted a manipulative experiment with Black-tailed Gnatcatchers ( Polioptila melanura ; BTGN) and Verdins ( Auriparus flaviceps ; VERD). Following a wet winter, we delayed clutch initiation dates for treatment pairs to match first-egg dates that we observed during droughts in 2006 and 2007. Nest initiation date had a significant negative effect on nest survival of both species (BTGN: β̂ = −1.18 ± 0.27 SE, P < 0.001; VERD: β̂ = −2.33 ± 0.51 SE, P = 0.003). Treatment pairs were unable to overcome the lost period of high productivity in March and early April, and had lower productivity than control pairs over the entire breeding season. As nest predation and Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) parasitism were the most common causes of nest failure, we conclude that the impacts of climate change–caused drought on annual reproductive output in the Sonoran Desert will be further compounded by parasitism and predation for Black-tailed Gnatcatchers and by predation for Verdins.

The Auk↗

USGS2017

Variation in annual clutch phenology of desert tortoises (Gopherus morafkai) in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona

The phenology of egg production and oviposition in organisms affects survival and development of neonates and thus, both offspring and maternal fitness. In addition, in organisms with environmental sex determination, clutch phenology can affect hatchling sex ratios with attendant effects on population demography. The rapid rate of contemporary climate change might disrupt reproductive phenologies that evolved to match environmental conditions. To better understand the response of clutch phenology to annual and long-term changes in climate, we studied a population of Sonoran Desert Tortoises ( Gopherus morafkai ) in Arizona in 1993 and 1997–2005, specifically quantifying three phenophases, including (1) the estimated time of appearance of shelled eggs in females, (2) the estimated time that eggs were last visible in X-radiographs, and (3) the duration of the interval between the first two events. The mean date for appearance of shelled eggs was 6 June, and the mean date they were last visible was 26 June. After controlling for individual female effects, these dates were different among years. The total number of days that eggs were visible across all females within a year differed among years, but the mean duration of time that clutches were visible, after controlling for individual female effects, was similar among years. Three of 18 females exhibited interannual egg retention on 5 occasions from 52 clutches. Although G. morafkai ovulates only one clutch per year, they might oviposit up to two because of interannual egg retention. Most females produced shelled eggs through heat-unit accumulation achieving 8.3 degree days within a 14-d moving average. The ability to vary the timing of egg formation and oviposition might buffer G. morafkai from some of the effects of predicted increases in temperatures, but species-specific information on developmental temperatures and nesting behavior are needed to determine whether or not the species will be able to produce viable clutches of mixed sex ratios in a warmer climate.

Arizona↗

USGS2013

Symposium 9: Rocky Mountain futures: preserving, utilizing, and sustaining Rocky Mountain ecosystems

In 2002 we published Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective (Island Press) to examine the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. We concluded that multiple local activities concerning land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction have altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the “tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions. Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, regional population growth, and some national management policies such as fire suppression.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Hydrogeology and Groundwater Resources of the Coastal Aquifers of Southeastern Massachusetts

The glacially derived aquifer systems of southeastern Massachusetts compose the largest groundwater reservoir in the State. Population increases, land-use changes, and climate change in this area could lead to three primary environmental effects that relate directly to groundwater resources - (1) increases in pumping that could adversely affect environmentally sensitive groundwater-fed surface waters, such as ponds, streams, and wetlands; (2) changes in land use that could affect the quality of water in the aquifer; and (3) changes in precipitation and mean sea level that can affect water levels, streamflow, and the position of the freshwater/saltwater boundary. Therefore, understanding groundwater flow and the factors that can affect it is critical to managing and protecting this vital resource.

Circular↗

USGS2022

Attribution of monotonic trends and change points in peak streamflow across the conterminous United States using a multiple working hypotheses framework, 1941–2015 and 1966–2015

The U.S. Geological Survey has a long history of leading flood-frequency analysis studies. These studies play a critical role in the assessment of risk, protection of lives, and planning and design of flood protection infrastructure. Standard flood-frequency analysis is based on the assumption of stationarity—that is, that the distribution of floods at a given site varies around a particular mean within a particular envelope of variance (and skew) and that these parameters of the underlying statistical distribution representative of the floods do not vary over time. Gradual or abrupt changes in one or more of the distributional parameters are called nonstationarities and violate the underlying assumptions of current U.S. Federal Government guidelines for flood-frequency analysis. Uncertainty exists as to what degree of violations calls for the use of a modified method for flood-frequency analysis and what the modified method(s) should be. When deciding whether to perform nonstationary flood-frequency analysis and choosing a method for such analysis, it is important to understand the causes of the nonstationarity. Gradual or abrupt changes in distributional properties of floods may be the result of numerous factors, such as regulation, diversion, land-use change, or climate change. In the interest of developing a cohesive national approach for better understanding the causes of nonstationarities and incorporating potential or observed changes into flood-frequency estimates, subject-matter experts from the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperators worked together to develop a multiple working hypotheses framework for making attributions and a common vocabulary for making provisions of confidence. Seven regional teams of these experts used ancillary datasets and institutional knowledge to evaluate plausible causes for monotonic trends and change points in annual peak-streamflow data for the conterminous United States that had been identified in an earlier phase of the project. The first chapter of this professional paper describes the development of a list of the potential attributions, presents a literature review of the potential attributions, describes the regional approach, summarizes insights obtained from the attribution process, and suggests future research. The other chapters provide the methods used for attribution in the seven regions—Pacific Northwest, Upper Plains, Midwest, Northeast, Southwest, South-Central, and Southeast—and summarize the regional patterns of nonstationarities.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2016

Sediment load and distribution in the lower Skagit River, Skagit County, Washington

The Skagit River delivers about 40 percent of all fluvial sediment that enters Puget Sound, influencing flood hazards in the Skagit lowlands, critically important estuarine habitat in the delta, and some of the most diverse and productive agriculture in western Washington. A total of 175 measurements of suspended-sediment load, made routinely from 1974 to 1993, and sporadically from 2006 to 2009, were used to develop and evaluate regression models of sediment transport (also known as “sediment-rating curves”) for estimating suspended-sediment load as a function of river discharge. Using a flow-range model and 75 years of daily discharge record (acquired from 1941 to 2015), the mean annual suspended-sediment load for the Skagit River near Mount Vernon, Washington, was estimated to be 2.5 teragrams (Tg, where 1 Tg = 1 million metric tons). The seasonal model indicates that 74 percent of the total annual suspended‑sediment load is delivered to Puget Sound during the winter storm season (from October through March), but also indicates that discharge is a poor surrogate for suspended‑sediment concentration (SSC) during the summer low-flow season. Sediment-rating curves developed for different time periods revealed that the regression model slope of the SSC-discharge relation increased 66 percent between the periods of 1974–76 and 2006–09 when suspended-sediment samples were collected, implying that changes in sediment supply, channel hydraulics, and (or) basin hydrology occurred between the two time intervals. In the relatively wet water year 2007 (October 1, 2006, through September 30, 2007), an automated sampler was used to collect daily samples of suspended sediment from which an annual load of 4.5 Tg was calculated, dominated by a single large flood event that contributed 1.8 Tg, or 40 percent of the total. In comparison, the annual load calculated for water year 2007 using the preferred flow-range model was 4.8 Tg (+6.7 percent), in close agreement with the measured value. Particle size affects sediment transport, fate and distribution across watersheds, and therefore is important for predicting how coastal environments, particularly deltas and beaches, will respond to changes in climate and sea-level. Particle-size analysis of winter storm samples indicated that about one-half of the suspended-sediment load consisted of fines (that is, silt- and clay-sized particles smaller than 0.0625 mm in diameter), and the remainder consisted of mostly fine- to medium-sized sand (0.0625–0.5 mm), whereas bedload during winter storm flows (about 1–3 percent of total sediment load) was predominantly composed of medium to coarse sand (0.25–1 mm). A continuous turbidity record from the Anacortes Water Treatment Plant (water years 1999–2013), used as a surrogate for the concentration of fines ( R 2 = 0.93, p = 4.2E-10, n = 17), confirms that about one-half of the mean annual suspended-sediment load is composed of fines. The distribution of flow through the delta distributaries (that is, the channels into which the main stem splits as it approaches the delta) is dynamic, with twice as much flow through the North Fork of the Skagit River relative to the South Fork during low-flow conditions, and close to equal flows in the two channels during high-flow conditions. Turbidity, monitored at several locations in the lower river in spring 2009, was essentially uniform among sites, indicating that fines are well mixed in the lower Skagit River system (defined as the Skagit River and all its distributaries downstream of the Mount Vernon streamgage). A strong relation ( R 2 = 0.95, p = 3.2E-14, n = 21; linear regression) between the concentration of fines and turbidity measured at various locations in summer 2009 indicates that turbidity is an effective surrogate for the concentration of fines, independent of location in the river, under naturally well-mixed fluvial conditions. This relation is especially useful for monitoring suspended sediment in western Washington rivers that are seasonally dominated by glacier meltwater because glacial melting typically produces suspended-sediment concentrations that are not well correlated with discharge. These results provide a comprehensive set of tools to estimate sediment delivery and delta responses of interest to scientists and resource managers including decision-makers examining options for flood hazard mitigation, estuary restoration, and climate change adaptation.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Hydro-morphological characterization of coral reefs for wave runup prediction

Many coral reef-lined coasts are low-lying with elevations <4 m above mean sea level. Climate-change-driven sea-level rise, coral reef degradation, and changes in storm wave climate will lead to greater occurrence and impacts of wave-driven flooding. This poses a significant threat to their coastal communities. While greatly at risk, the complex hydrodynamics and bathymetry of reef-lined coasts make flood risk assessment and prediction costly and difficult. Here we use a large (>30,000) dataset of measured coral reef topobathymetric cross-shore profiles, statistics, machine learning, and numerical modeling to develop a set of representative cluster profiles (RCPs) that can be used to accurately represent the shoreline hydrodynamics of a large variety of coral reef-lined coasts around the globe. In two stages, the large dataset is reduced by clustering cross-shore profiles based on morphology and hydrodynamic response to typical wind and swell wave conditions. By representing a large variety of coral reef morphologies with a reduced number of RCPs, a computationally feasible number of numerical model simulations can be done to obtain wave runup estimates, including setup at the shoreline and swash separated into infragravity and sea-swell components, of the entire dataset. The predictive capability of the RCPs is tested against 5,000 profiles from the dataset. The wave runup is predicted with a mean error of 9.7–13.1%, depending on the number of cluster profiles used, ranging from 312 to 50. The RCPs identified here can be combined with probabilistic tools that can provide an enhanced prediction given a multivariate wave and water level climate and reef ecology state. Such a tool can be used for climate change impact assessments and studying the effectiveness of reef restoration projects, as well as for the provision of coastal flood predictions in a simplified (global) early warning system.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2020

Mapping forested wetland inundation in the Delmarva Peninsula, USA: Use of deep learning model

The Delmarva Peninsula in the eastern United States is dominated by thousands of small, forested depressional wetlands that are highly sensitive to climate change and climate variability but provide critical ecosystem services. Due to the relatively small size of these depressional wetlands and occurrence under forest canopy cover, it is very challenging to map their inundation status based on existing remote sensing data and traditional classification approaches. In this study, we applied a state-of-the-art deep semantic segmentation network to map forested wetland inundation in the Delmarva region by integrating leaf-off Worldview-3 (WV3) multispectral data with fine resolution light detection and ranging (lidar) intensity and topographic data, including digital elevation model (DEM) and topographic wetness index (TWI). Wetland inundation maps generated from lidar intensity were used for model calibration and validation. The wetland inundation map results were also validated by field polygons and compared to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) geospatial dataset and a random forest output from a previous study. Our results demonstrate that our deep learning model can accurately determine inundation status with an overall accuracy of 95% against field data and high overlap with lidar mapped inundation. The integration of topographic metrics in deep learning model can improve classification accuracy in depressional wetlands. This study highlights the great potential of deep learning models to map wetland inundation through use of high resolution optical and lidar remote sensing datasets.

Maryland↗

USGS2024

Impacts of convective storms on runoff, erosion, and carbon export in a continuous permafrost landscape

Permafrost holds more than twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere, but this large carbon reservoir is vulnerable to thaw and erosion under a rapidly changing Arctic climate. Convective storms are becoming increasingly common during Arctic summers and can amplify runoff and erosion. These extreme events, in concert with active layer deepening, may accelerate carbon loss from the Arctic landscape. However, we lack measurements of carbon fluxes during these events. Rivers are sensitive to physical, chemical, and hydrological perturbations, and thus are excellent systems for studying landscape responses to thunderstorms. We present observations from the Canning River, Alaska, which drains the northern Brooks Range and flows across a continuous permafrost landscape to the Beaufort Sea. During summer 2022 and 2023 field campaigns, we opportunistically monitored river discharge, sediment, and organic carbon fluxes during several thunderstorms. During one notable storm, river discharge nearly doubled from ~130 m3/s to ~240 m3/s, suspended sediment flux increased 70-fold, and the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux increased 90-fold relative to non-storm conditions. Taken together, the river exported ~16 metric tons of POC over one hour of this sustained event, not including the additional flux of woody debris. Furthermore, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux nearly doubled. Although these thunderstorm-driven fluxes are short-lived (hours to days), they play an outsized role in exporting organic carbon from Arctic rivers. Understanding how these extreme events impact river water, sediment, and carbon dynamics will help predict how Arctic climate change will modify the global carbon cycle.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Research strategies for addressing uncertainties

Research Strategies for Addressing Uncertainties builds on descriptions of research needs presented elsewhere in the book; describes current research efforts and the challenges and opportunities to reduce the uncertainties of climate change; explores ways to improve the understanding of changes in climate and hydrology; and emphasizes the use of research to inform decision making.

Book chapter↗

USGS2007

Retrospective analysis of AYK Chinook salmon growth

Harvests of Yukon and Kuskokwim Chinook salmon declined significantly during 1998- 2002 in response to fewer returning salmon. Factors affecting the decline in Chinook salmon abundance are largely unknown. Growth of salmon in freshwater and the ocean is generally thought to influence salmon survival, therefore we examined historical Chinook salmon catch trends and developed growth indices of age-1.3 and age-1.4 Yukon and Kuskokwim Chinook salmon during each year and life stage in freshwater and the ocean, 1964-2004, using measurements of salmon scale growth. Availability of Yukon scales was greater than that of Kuskokwim scales during 1964-2004. Harvests of Yukon and Kuskokwim Chinook salmon rapidly increased in the mid-1970s, then rapidly declined in the late 1990s, apparently in response to the 1976/77 ocean regime shift and the 1997/98 El Nino event. Runs of Nushagak District Chinook salmon (Bristol Bay) also appeared to have been affected by these events in addition to the 1989 regime shift. The rapid responses of Chinook salmon abundance to climate change suggest late life stages were primarily affected, at least initially. Therefore, we searched for Chinook salmon growth patterns that might be related to changes in climate.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Exploitation dynamics of small fish stocks like Arctic cisco

Potential impacts to the Arctic cisco population fall into both demographic and behavioral categories. Possible demographic impacts include stock recruitment effects, limited escapement into marine habitats, and variable age-class reproductive success. Potential behavioral impacts involve migratory patterns, variable life histories, and strategies for seasonal feeding. Arctic cisco stocks are highly susceptible to over-exploitation due to our limited basic knowledge of the highly variable Arctic environment and the role they play in this dynamic ecosystem. Our knowledge of potential demographic changes is very limited, and it is necessary to determine the abundance and recruitment of the hypothesized Mackenzie River source population, the extent of the coastal migratory corridor, growth patterns, and coastal upwelling and mixing effects on population dynamics for this species. Information needed to answer some of the demographic questions includes basic evolutionary history and molecular genetics of Arctic cisco (for instance, are there contributions to the Arctic cisco stock from the Yukon?), what is the effective population size (i.e., breeding population size), and potential links to changes in climate. The basic behavioral questions include migratory and variable life history questions. For instance, the extent of movement back and forth between freshwater and the sea, age-specific differences in food web dynamics, and nearshore brackish and high salinity habitats are topics that should be studied. Life history data should be gathered to understand the variation in age at reproduction, salinity tolerance, scale and duration of the freshwater stage, survival, and adult migration. Both molecular and ecological tools should be integrated to manage the Arctic cisco stock(s), such as understanding global climate changes on patterns of harvest and recruitment, and the genetics of population structure and colonization. Perhaps other populations are contributing to the population within the Colville River other than only the Mackenzie River population. This needs further exploration. By examining otolith microchemistry, unique transitions from freshwater to sea can be identified for these stocks. This may shed light on why some fish arrive at the mouth of the Colville River, while others don’t.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Monitoring and conservation of Japanese Murrelets and related seabirds in Japan

Of the 24 species in the Auk (or Alcidae) family of seabirds living in the northern hemisphere, 22 reside within the North Pacific Ocean. These “penguins of the north” use their small wings to “fly” underwater, some to more than 200 meters, where they catch and eat a variety of small fish and invertebrates. In terms of sheer numbers (>65 million) and food consumption, the Auks dominate seabird communities on our continental shelves and they serve as indicators of the health of our ocean. If Auk populations are not all thriving, then we should be concerned about the status of the oceans, plankton and fish that normally sustain them. A few Auk “tribes” genera) are abundant and widespread (such as Uria murres and Aethia auklets), and some are rare and isolated such as Synthliboramphus murrelets, including the Japanese “Crested” Murrelet). Only 8 species of Auk breed in Japan, including species that have either widespread or isolated populations in the North Pacific. During the past century, most of these Auks have declined dramatically in Japan from many causes, including the introduction of predatory rats and cats to breeding islands, bycatch in fishing nets, alteration of food supplies by fishing and climate change, oil spills, and destruction of seabird nesting habitats. Widespread species such as the Common Murre and Tufted Puffin were once common in Japan but now breed in low numbers at only a few locations. Probably common in the past, small numbers of the widespread Ancient Murrelet were recently re-discovered breeding at Teuri Island, which is also home to the world’s largest colony of Rhinoceros Auklet, another widespread species. Though common throughout the North Pacific, Pigeon Guillemots, breed only in the southern Kuril Islands. Their population status is unknown, but they were never considered common in Japan. In contrast, Spectacled Guillemots are an example of an uncommon and isolated population of Auk. They nest along coasts of the Sea of Okhotsk and Sea of Japan, and populations have declined in recent decades. The Long-billed Murrelet has a similar distribution to Spectacled Guillemot, and once bred in Hokkaido, but populations appear to have been extirpated. The Japanese Murrelet has a very small world population, and breeds at only a few locations in southern Japan and the Republic of Korea. The international community of research and conservation biologists is greatly concerned about the ability of this species—probably the rarest of all Auks in the world— to maintain its population size. Owing to its small size and high metabolic demand, this species is especially vulnerable to any stress that increases its food requirements such as changing fish stocks, disturbance on feeding or wintering grounds, or changing ocean climate. Immediate management actions are needed to preserve Japanese Murrelets and other Auks in Japan, by such means as eradicating rats and cats on breeding islands, altering fishing gear to minimize bycatch, and reducing human disturbance to nesting habitats. More research and monitoring of Auk populations in Japan is needed to track population trends, and further identify factors responsible for declines. Interaction between governments and biologists at regional and international levels will be mutually beneficial as we all strive to conserve precious resources and biodiversity in the northwest Pacific, and particularly the Japanese islands.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada

Changes in climate are often assumed result in changes to species’ ranges, with potential impacts on natural system functioning and ecosystem services. ‘Climate envelope models’, which rely on correlations between climate and species distributions, have been used to predict the future of biodiversity under these assumptions. However, other factors including land-cover, dispersal ability and interspecific competition and facilitation may play an important role in driving species distributions and population trends either alone or in combination with climate. In an ongoing project, we used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance to develop climate envelope and land-use models for 161 species in order to provide a multi-species test of the degree to which climate envelope versus land-use models are useful in predicting species distributions and population trends of birds in forest ecosystems of the western U.S. and Canada. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can be used for some species to predict changes through time, and that changes in climate have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America. For other species, models using land-use variables including raw remote-sensing variables may provide the best predictions for abundance change. The results of this research showing the reliability of models across multiple species will aid managers in understanding which species are most vulnerable to changes from climate, land-use change and their interaction.

Final Report↗

USGS2023

Historical DNA reveals climate adaptation in an endangered songbird

To cope with climate change, species may shift their distributions or adapt in situ to changing environmental conditions. However, clear examples of genetic changes via adaptation are limited. We explore evolutionary responses to climate change in the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) through whole-genome comparisons between historical specimens, collected from 1888 to 1909 near San Diego, California, United States, and contemporary individuals from across the breeding range. Genomic analyses revealed that introgression into San Diego increased adaptive potential over time and shifted genome-wide population structure towards that of neighbouring populations. In contrast, loci linked to climate (dew point temperature and precipitation) shifted away from neighbouring populations and in a direction consistent with adaptation to climate change in southern California. This research highlights the role of admixture in facilitating adaptive shifts through its impact on genome-wide genetic variation and represents one of the few studies to document climate adaptation in a wild population.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2018

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

The American pika is a thermally sensitive, alpine lagomorph species. Recent climate-associated population extirpations and genetic signatures of reduced population sizes range-wide indicate the viability of this species is sensitive to climate change. To test for potential adaptive responses to climate stress, we sampled pikas along two elevational gradients (each ~470 to 1640 m) and employed three outlier detection methods, BAYESCAN, LFMM, and BAYPASS, to scan for genotype-environment associations in samples genotyped at 30,763 SNP loci. We resolved 173 loci with robust evidence of natural selection detected by either two independent analyses or replicated in both transects. A BLASTN search of these outlier loci revealed several genes associated with metabolic function and oxygen transport, indicating natural selection from thermal stress and hypoxia. We also found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from large high-elevation populations and reduced gene flow at outlier loci, a pattern suggesting potential impediments to the upward elevational movement of adaptive alleles in response to contemporary climate change. Finally, we documented evidence of reduced genetic diversity associated the south-facing transect and an increase in corticosterone stress levels associated with inbreeding. This study suggests the American pika is already undergoing climate-associated natural selection at multiple genomic regions. Further analysis is needed to determine if the rate of climate adaptation in the American pika and other thermally sensitive species will be able to keep pace with rapidly changing climate conditions.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Characterizing future streamflows in Massachusetts using stochastic modeling—A pilot study

Communities throughout Massachusetts face the potential effects of climate change, ranging from more extreme rainfall to more pronounced and frequent droughts. Understanding the effects of climate change on hydrology is important to State and community officials to evaluate the potential effects on infrastructure and water systems. To better understand the effects of climate change on hydrology, the U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with Cornell University and Tufts University, conducted a study in cooperation with the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs to develop tools for projecting 21st-century climate and hydrologic characteristics in Massachusetts. A stochastic weather generator was developed to project future climatic characteristics for Massachusetts. The stochastic weather generator estimates daily precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature for 17 warming scenarios (from 0 to 8 degrees Celsius, in 0.5-degree increments). To project future hydrologic characteristics, the stochastic weather generator output data were input to the Precipitation-Watershed Modeling System deterministic watershed model for the Squannacook River watershed, which is the watershed selected as the pilot study location for investigating future hydrologic characteristics. Hydrologic data output from the deterministic watershed model were then input to a stochastic watershed model developed for this study to correct model errors (model errors are often observed in the output from deterministic models at the high- and low-flow extremes). The output from the stochastic watershed model was then used to characterize hydrology for the 17 warming scenarios. For the Squannacook River watershed, the results project more extreme flood and low streamflows under the warming scenarios. Output from the tools allows the characterization of future streamflows for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090, which expands our understanding of 21st-century climatic and hydrologic risk in Massachusetts. These tools could improve Federal, State, and community officials’ ability to mitigate the effects of climate change over the next several decades.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2017

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

South Dakota↗