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Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming: A summary

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Colorado, Wyoming

Surface-water-quality assessment of the upper Illinois River basin in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin; project description

In 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey began a National Water-Quality Assessment program to (1) provide nationally consistent descriptions of the current status of water quality for a large, diverse, and geographically distributed part of the Nation's surface- and ground-water resources; (2) define, where possible, trends in water quality; and (3) identify and describe the relations of both status and trends in water quality to natural factors and the history of land use and land- and waste-management activities. The program is presently in a pilot phase that will test and modify, as necessary, concepts and approaches in preparation for possible full implementation of the program in the future. The upper Illinois River basin is one of four basins selected to test the concepts and approaches of the surface-water-quality element of the national program. The basin drains 10,949 square miles of Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin. Three principal tributaries are the Kankakee and Des Plaines Rivers that join to form the Illinois River and the Fox River. Land use is predominantly agricultural; about 75 percent of the basin is cultivated primarily for production of corn and soybeans. About 13 percent of the basin is urban area, most of which is located in the Chicago metropolitan area. The population of the basin is about 7 million. About 6 million people live in the Des Plaines River basin. Many water-quality issues in the upper Illinois River basin are related to sediment, nutrients, potentially toxic inorganic and organic constituents, and to water-management practices. Occurrence of sediment and the chemical constituents in the rivers and lakes within the basin has the potential to adversely affect the water's suitability for aquatic life, recreation, or, through the consumption of fish, human health. The upper Illinois River basin project consists of five major activities. The first activity--analysis of existing information and preparation of a report that describes recent water-quality conditions and trends--is currently underway. The second activity--fixed-station water-quality sampling at eight stations--began in April 1987 and will last at least 3 years. Water-quality data collected at these stations will be used to determine the frequency of occurrence of constituent concentrations, their annual and seasonal loads, and time trends in concentrations for a selected number of constituents. The third activity will be synoptic water-quality studies. Each study will involve sampling many sites at specific flow conditions and for selected water-quality constituents. Information gained from these studies will supplement informa tion gained from fixed-station sampling. A synoptic study of streambed sediments is tentatively planned for the summer of 1987 to describe the occurrence and distribution of trace elements in the basin. The fourth activity will consist of one or more topical subbasin or river-reach studies. The purpose of such studies is to better define certain water-quality conditions in specific areas and gain an understanding of the processes affecting the observed conditions. The fifth activity is the preparation of reports that will describe results from each of the first four activities. Quality assurance and coordination are being provided at both the national and pilot-project levels. A technical quality-assurance plan that addresses all aspects of sample collection, analysis, and reporting is being prepared at the national level. This plan will be appended as needed at the pilot-project level. A National Coordinating Work Group that functions under the auspices of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data and the Advisory Committee on Water Data for Public Use has been established at the national level. A local liaison committee consisting of representatives from Federal, State, and local agencies has been established to enhance communication and to ensure that the scientific information produced by the

Open-File Report

Monitoring of stage and velocity, for computation of discharge in the Summit Conduit near Summit, Illinois, 2010-2012

Lake Michigan diversion accounting is the process used by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers to quantify the amount of water that is diverted from the Lake Michigan watershed into the Illinois and Mississippi River Basins. A network of streamgages within the Chicago area waterway system monitor tributary river flows and the major river flow on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont as one of the instrumental tools used for Lake Michigan diversion accounting. The mean annual discharges recorded by these streamgages are used as additions or deductions to the mean annual discharge recorded by the main stream gaging station currently used in the Lake Michigan diversion accounting process, which is the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois (station number 05536890). A new stream gaging station, Summit Conduit near Summit, Illinois (station number 414757087490401), was installed on September 23, 2010, for the purpose of monitoring stage, velocity, and discharge through the Summit Conduit for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in accordance with Lake Michigan diversion accounting. Summit Conduit conveys flow from a small part of the lower Des Plaines River watershed underneath the Des Plaines River directly into the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. Because the Summit Conduit discharges into the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal upstream from the stream gaging station at Lemont, Illinois, but does not contain flow diverted from the Lake Michigan watershed, it is considered a flow deduction to the discharge measured by the Lemont stream gaging station in the Lake Michigan diversion accounting process. This report offers a technical summary of the techniques and methods used for the collection and computation of the stage, velocity, and discharge data at the Summit Conduit near Summit, Illinois stream gaging station for the 2011 and 2012 Water Years. The stream gaging station Summit Conduit near Summit, Illinois (station number 414757087490401) is an example of a nonstandard stream gage. Traditional methods of equating stage to discharge historically were not effective. Examples of the nonstandard conditions include the converging tributary flows directly upstream of the gage; the trash rack and walkway near the opening of the conduit introducing turbulence and occasionally entraining air bubbles into the flow; debris within the conduit creating conditions of variable backwater and the constant influx of smaller debris that escapes the trash rack and catches or settles in the conduit and on the equipment. An acoustic Doppler velocity meter was installed to measure stage and velocity to compute discharge. The stage is used to calculate area based the stage-area rating. The index-velocity from the acoustic Doppler velocity meter is applied to the velocity-velocity rating and the product of the two rated values is a rated discharge by the index-velocity method. Nonstandard site conditions prevalent at the Summit Conduit stream gaging station generally are overcome through the index-velocity method. Despite the difficulties in gaging and measurements, improvements continue to be made in data collection, transmission, and measurements. Efforts to improve the site and to improve the ratings continue to improve the quality and quantity of the data available for Lake Michigan diversion accounting.

Illinois

Geology, Water, and Wind in the Lower Helmand Basin, Southern Afghanistan

This report presents an overview of the geology, hydrology, and climate of the lower Helmand Basin, a large, closed, arid basin in southern Afghanistan. The basin is drained by the Helmand River, the only perennial desert stream between the Indus and Tigris-Euphrates Rivers. The Helmand River is the lifeblood of southern Afghanistan and has supported desert civilizations in the Sistan depression for over 6,000 years. The Helmand Basin is a structurally closed basin that began to form during the middle Tertiary as a consequence of the collision of several Gondwanaland fragments. Aeromagnetic studies indicate the basin is 3-5 kilometers deep over basement rocks. Continued subsidence along basin-bounding faults in Iran and Pakistan throughout the Neogene has formed the Sistan depression in the southwest corner of the basin. Lacustrine, eolian, and fluvial deposits are commonly exposed in the basin and were intruded by latest Miocene-middle Quaternary volcanoes, which indicates that depositional environments in the lower Helmand Basin have not substantially changed for nearly 10 million years. Lakes expanded in the Sistan depression during the Quaternary; however, the size and extent of these pluvial lakes are unknown. Climate conditions in the lower Helmand Basin likely mirrored climate changes in the Rajasthan Desert to the east and in Middle Eastern deserts to the west: greater aridity during global episodes of colder temperatures and increased available moisture during episodes of warmer temperatures. Eolian processes are unusually dominant in shaping the landscape in the basin. A strong wind blows for 120 days each summer, scouring dry lakebeds and creating dune fields from annual flood deposits. Nearly one-third of the basin is mantled with active or stabilized dunes. Blowing winds combined with summer temperatures over 50? Celsius and voluminous insect populations hatched from the deltaic wetlands create an environment referred to as the 'most odious place on earth' by 19th century visitors. During dry years, large plumes of dust originating from Sistan are recorded by weather satellites. The Helmand River drains about 40 percent of Afghanistan and receives most of its moisture from melting snow and spring storms. Similar to many desert streams, the Helmand and its main tributary, the Arghandab River, are characterized by large fluctuations in monthly and annual discharges. Water from the Helmand accumulates in several hamuns (shallow lakes) in the Sistan depression. The wetlands surrounding these hamuns are the largest in western Asia and are directly affected by droughts and floods on the Helmand. Average annual discharge on the Helmand is about 6.12 million megaliters (million cubic meters), and the annual discharge varies by a factor of five. In 2005, the region was just beginning to recover from the longest drought (1998-2005) of record back to 1830. Annual peak discharges range from less than 80 cubic meters per second in 1971 to nearly 19,000 cubic meters per second in 1885. Large floods fill each hamun to overflowing to create one large lake that overflows into the normally dry Gaud-i Zirreh basin. The interaction of flooding, active subsidence, and wind erosion causes frequent channel changes on the Helmand delta. A major development effort on the Helmand River was initiated after World War II with substantial aid from the United States. Two dams and several major canals were completed in the 1950s; however, poor drainage conditions on the newly prepared agricultural fields caused extensive waterlogging and salinization. New drains were installed and improved agricultural methods were implemented in the 1970s, and some lands became more productive. Since 1980, Afghanistan has endured almost constant war and civil and political strife. In 2005, the country was on a path to rebuild much of its technical infrastructure. Revitalization of agricultural lands in the lower Helmand Basin and improved managem

Scientific Investigations Report

Efficacy of feral pig removals at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge

We compiled and analyzed data from 1987–2004 on feral pig ( Sus scrofa ) management and monitoring activities at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, a tropical montane rainforest on the island of Hawai`i. These data included annual surveys of feral pig and cattle ( Bos taurus ) activity, the number of feral ungulates removed from closed management units, age and reproductive status from necropsies, and vegetation surveys repeated 4 times over a 16 year period. We found an essentially even sex ratio within the feral pig population and within age classes, although males lived to 60 months while females lived to only 48 months. The pregnancy rate was 23.5%, and lactation rate was 8.3%, regardless of season and age, but lactation peaked in April-June. Reproductive rates also increased with age, peaking at 2–4 years in females. We reconstructed the standing population within a closed unit to examine demographic processes. We estimated that annual removal in excess of approximately 41–43% would be necessary to affect a population decline. We examined annual feral pig activity surveys and found a strong and sustained decline in pig sign after 1997 relative to unmanaged areas. We related the standing population to feral pig activity surveys to build a predictive model of feral pig density, and then applied this model to other management units. We evaluated control methods and found snaring to be more efficient than staff or public hunting. Vegetation monitoring revealed a strong temporal increase in cover of native ferns, and marginally non-significant decreases in cover of bryophytes and exposed soil.

Hawai'i

Fish losses to double-crested cormorant predation in Eastern Lake Ontario, 1992-97

We examined 4,848 regurgitated digestive pellets of double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) over a 6-year period (1992–97) to estimate annual predation on sport and other fishes in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario. We found more than 51,000 fish of 28 species. Using a model that incorporates annual colony nest counts; fledgling production rates; adult, immature, and young-of-year residence times (seasonal); estimates of mean number of fish per pellet and mean fish size; and a fecal pathway correction factor (4.0 percent), we estimate total annual number of fish consumed by cormorants in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario to range from 37 million to 128 million fish for 1993–97. This fish loss equates to an estimated 0.93 million to 3.21 million kg (mean 2.07 million kg) of fish consumed per year, principally alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus , 42.3 percent) and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens , 18.4 percent). Forage fish (alewife, cyprinids, trout-perch [ Percopsis omiscomaycus ], and other minor components) accounted for 65 percent of the diet, and panfish contributed 34 percent of the diet for the 5-year period. Game fish were minor components of the diet, in view of an average estimated annual consumption of 900,000 smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieui , 1.1 percent) and 168,000 salmonines (mostly lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush , 0.2 percent). Cormorant predation on lake trout fingerlings stocked in May 1993 and June 1994 was estimated through the use of coded wire tag recoveries from pellets collected on Little Galloo Island 1 and 4 days after stocking events. We estimated losses of 13.6 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, of the fish stocked for the two events, an average of 11.2 percent. Such losses may be reduced through alteration of existing stocking practices.

Lake Ontario;Little Galloo Island

Estimating mean streamflow in the Duchesne River basin, Utah

Monthly, annual, and long-term mean streamflow were estimated for streams in the Duchesne River basin by use of the monthly measurement method. Monthly measurements were attempted at 44 sites in the basin during the 1971 and 1972 water years. Some measurements could not be made because some sites were not accessible at all times, some of the streams did not have flow at all times, or some of the streams could not be measured during high flow. For those sites at which measurements could not be made, monthly discharge was determined by an alternative method involving the use of daily hydrographs for nearby gaging-station sites. Four of the monthly measurement sites were at discontinued gaging stations, and two others were located so that their total discharge would be approximately the same as that for another discontinued gaging station. A comparison of long-term mean annual discharge determined by the monthly measurement method versus that determined from gaging station records was as follows: Good at three sites (8 percent or less), fair-to-poor at one site (39 percent), and poor at one site (87 percent). At the three sites that showed good comparisons, there was flow at every monthly visit and the sites were above most diversions. The site where comparison was fair-to-poor is affected by upstream diversion; at the site where the comparison was poor, the stream was dry at the time of many of the monthly visits.

Utah

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Biology of larval and metamorphosing sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus, of the 1960 year class in the Big Garlic River, Michigan, Part II, 1966-72

The 1960 year class of sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus , isolated in a tributary of southern Lake Superior continued to yield information on the early life history of the sea lamprey. The larval population persisted and newly metamorphosed individuals were captured from 1966 until the study was terminated in 1972. The average lengths of larvae collected in October (when yearly growth is nearly complete) in successive years from 1966 to 1972 were 111, 113, 112, 114, 121, 128, and 129 mm. The average lengths of transforming lampreys during the same years were 150, 151, 145, 143, 144, 148, and 156 mm. A gradual downstream shift of the population took place. Catches in an inclined-plane trap at the lower end of the study area increased to a peak of 13,244 in the 1968-69 migration year (September 1-August 31), and then steadily decreased. As the number of lampreys decreased in the upper sections and increased in the lower ones, the changes in density were reflected in changes in growth rates. Although the mean length of ammocetes throughout the stream was 111 mm in 1966, it had increased by 1971 to 151 and 143 mm in the upstream sections (IV and V), but to only 115 mm in the densely populated area immediately above the trap. Of a total of 9,889 larvae marked in 1962-68 to study movement and distribution, 2,045 were recovered as larvae and 1,396 as newly transformed adults. Major downstream movements of larvae occurred during high water in April and May, and of transformed lampreys in mid-October through November. Each year about 40% (range, 30-68) of the annual production of transformed lampreys migrated from the Big Garlic River system in one 12-hour period, and 82% by the end of October. The Big Garlic River study proved conclusively that metamorphosis of a single year class occurs over a considerable number of years. Newly metamorphosed individuals were captured in almost steadily increasing numbers from 1965 (age V) to the termination of the study in 1972 (age XII). Many large ammocetes were still present in the study area in 1972, and it can safely be assumed that they would have continued to metamorphose for several more years.

Technical Report

Vascular plant and vertebrate species richness in national parks of the eastern United States

Given the estimates that species diversity is diminishing at 50-100 times the normal rate, it is critical that we be able to evaluate changes in species richness in order to make informed decisions for conserving species diversity. In this study, we examined the potential of vascular plant species richness to be used as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness in the classes of amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Vascular plants, as primary producers, represent the biotic starting point for ecological community structure and are the logical place to start for understanding vertebrate species associations. We used data collected by the United States (US) National Park Service (NPS) on species presence within parks in the eastern US to estimate simple linear regressions between plant species richness and vertebrate richness. Because environmental factors may also influence species diversity, we performed simple linear regressions of species richness versus natural logarithm of park area, park latitude, mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and human population density surrounding the parks. We then combined plant species richness and environmental variables in multiple regressions to determine the variables that remained as significant predictors of vertebrate species richness. As expected, we detected significant relationships between plant species richness and amphibian, bird, and mammal species richness. In some cases, plant species richness was predicted by park area alone. Species richness of mammals was only related to plant species richness. Reptile species richness, on the other hand, was related to plant species richness, park latitude and annual precipitation, while amphibian species richness was related to park latitude, park area, and plant species richness. Thus, plant species richness predicted species richness of different vertebrate groups to varying degrees and should not be used exclusively as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness. Plant species richness should be included with other variables such as area and climate when considering strategies to manage and conserve species in US National Parks. It is not always appropriate to draw conclusions about analyses of taxonomic surrogates from one area to another. Two patterns evident from the linear regressions were the increase in species richness with the increase of park area and with increase of vascular plant species richness. To test whether there were differences in these patterns among networks, we used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Differences among networks were detected only in bird species richness versus plant species richness and for all taxa except mammals for vertebrate species richness versus park area. Some of these results may be due to small sample size among networks, and therefore, low statistical power. Other factors that could have contributed to these results were differences in average park area and habitat heterogeneity among networks, latitudinal gradients, low variation in mean annual precipitation, and different use of vegetation by migratory species. Based on these results we recommend that management of biodiversity be approached from local and site specific criteria rather than applying management directives derived from other regions of the US. It is also recommended that analyses similar to those presented here be conducted for all national parks, once data become available for all networks in the US, to gain a better understanding of how vascular plant species richness, area, and vertebrate species richness are related in the US.

Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/NCR/NCRO/NRT

Managing effects of drought and other water resource challenges in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

This is a Cooperator Report. As such, there is no specific abstract. The physical, ecological, and social environments of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States are extremely diverse. Alaska ranges from the Arctic Ocean and the very cold, dry environments of the North Slope to the cool and very rainy coastal North Pacific region of Southeast Alaska. Most precipitation falls as snow at higher elevations. In Arctic Alaska, average annual temperature is 14.6 F, and average annual precipitation is 11 inches. By contrast, in Southeast Alaska, average annual temperature is 35.8 F, and annual average precipitation is 143 inches. The PNW, defined here as Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, ranges from the Pacific Coast (annual precipitation of 200 inches) to interior semi-arid regions (annual precipitation of 8 inches). Precipitation patterns in the PNW are strongly governed by orographic phenomena, with high, persistent snowpack in the higher mountains (e.g., record annual snowfall of 1,130 in at Mount Baker, Washington in 1999-2000). Ecosystems in the PNW include productive temperate coniferous forests near the Pacific coast and along the (wet) west slope of the Cascade Range, less productive mixed-conifer forest along the (dry) east slope of the Cascades and in interior mountain ranges, and sagebrush-steppe and shrublands at lower elevations in much of the interior and mountain valleys. Large rivers and thousands of smaller tributaries form an extensive network of riparian, wetland, and estuarine systems that provide both critical hydrologic function and biological diversity at broad and fine spatial scales. Although Alaska and the Pacific Northwest differ in important physical, ecological, and social features, the importance of natural resources is evident in both regions. Water is important for wildlife and people. Water provides critical habitat for salmon, which are culturally and economically valuable species. Timber production has declined in recent decades. Recreation has emerged as a major revenue source.

Alaska, Oregon, Washington

Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

Accurate estimates of population size are often crucial to determining status and planning recovery of endangered species. The ability to detect trends in survival and population size over time enables conservation managers to make effective decisions for species and refuge management. During 2004–2007, the translocated population of endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis; also Laysan Duck) was fitted with radio transmitters providing known (―gold standard‖) measures of survival and reproduction. However, as the population grew, statistically rigorous monitoring protocols were needed that were less labor intensive than radio telemetry. A population die-off and alarmingly high number of carcasses (181) were recorded during a botulism epizootic in August–October 2008, which further reinforced the need for effective monitoring protocols since this endangered species is vulnerable to catastrophic population declines. In fall 2008, we initiated a pilot study using standardized surveys with uniquely marked birds to monitor abundance and estimate the population growth rate of the reintroduced Laysan Teal. Since few birds carried marks (leg bands) after the 2008 botulism die-off (only about 15% of the population), and standardized surveys were not yet implemented, the magnitude of the die-off on the population size was unknown. To learn more about this endangered species' status and develop monitoring protocols useful to refuge managers and recovery planners in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we marked (banded) 252 new Laysan Teal for this pilot project. With skilled refuge staff and trained volunteers, we conducted counts of marked, unmarked, and unknown birds during bimonthly surveys from Oct 2008 to Jan 2010. We recorded the identities of marked birds observed, recovered carcasses, and then used the last date a bird was detected alive and the median resight frequency to conclude if a bird was likely to be alive on a given survey date. Using mark-resight data and individual resight frequencies, we produced a series of abundance estimates from surveys that met accuracy criteria and approached ―closed population‖ assumptions. Since only one year of standardized, atoll-wide surveys were conducted, we analyzed data selected from multiple surveys using Lincoln-Petersen (LP) estimates instead of multi-year likelihood estimators. We adjusted surveys to account for unknown birds (e.g., swimming birds), temporary band loss, and described the frequency of double counting. Double counting is an important consideration in the population estimate because we found a maximum of 13% of marked birds were counted multiple times during a survey. These survey protocols allowed us to estimate the species' post-fledging population (combined adults and juveniles), and the methods are comparable to those used on Laysan Island. The Laysan Teal population increased 91% from 247 (95% CI, 233–260) in 2007 to 439–508 in early 2010. There was no change from 2009 to 2010 indicating that there was no population growth, however, our 2010 estimate should be considered preliminary since only one month of 2010 resight data was used. We compared a series of direct counts to their corresponding population estimates during 2008–2009 to evaluate if counts could serve as an unbiased ―index‖ of population abundance. There was a moderate correlation between abundance estimates and total birds counted (r 2 = 0.51) during resight surveys but a low correlation with all-wetland counts (r 2 = 0.02). This indicated that using direct all-wetland counts to predict abundance would result in confidence intervals on the order of ± 200 birds, which is equal to 50% of the estimate. With such large confidence intervals, it would be unlikely to detect annual changes in abundance or determine the magnitude of a catastrophic decline. To improve the Laysan Teal population estimates, we recommend changes to the monitoring protocol. Additional years of data are needed to quantify inter-annual seasonal detection probabilities, which may allow the use of standardized direct counts as an unbiased index of population size. Survey protocols should be enhanced through frequent resights, regular survey intervals, and determining reliable standards to detect catastrophic declines and annual changes in adult abundance. In late 2009 to early 2010, 68% of the population was marked with unique color band combinations. This allowed for potentially accurate adult population estimates and survival estimates without the need to mark new birds in 2010, 2011, and possibly 2012. However, efforts should be made to replace worn or illegible bands so birds can be identified in future surveys. It would be valuable to develop more sophisticated population size and survival models using Program MARK, a state-of-the-art software package which uses likelihood models to analyze mark-recapture data. This would allow for more reliable adult population and survival estimates to compare with the ―source‖ Laysan Teal population on Laysan Island. These models will require additional years of resight data (> 1 year) and, in some cases, an intensive annual effort of marking and recapture. Because data indicate standardized all-wetland counts are a poor index of abundance, monitoring efforts could be improved by expanding resight surveys to include all wetlands, discontinuing the all-wetland counts, and reallocating some of the wetland count effort to collect additional opportunistic resights. Approximately two years of additional bimonthly surveys are needed to validate the direct count as an appropriate index of population abundance. Additional years of individual resight data will allow estimates of adult population size, as specified in recovery criteria, and to track species population dynamics at Midway Atoll.

Technical Report

Using resilience and resistance concepts to manage threats to sagebrush ecosystems, Gunnison sage-grouse, and Greater sage-grouse in their eastern range: A strategic multi-scale approach

This report provides a strategic approach developed by a Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies interagency working group for conservation of sagebrush ecosystems, Greater sage-grouse, and Gunnison sage-grouse. It uses information on (1) factors that influence sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative invasive annual grasses and (2) distribution and relative abundance of sage-grouse populations to address persistent ecosystem threats, such as invasive annual grasses and wildfire, and land use and development threats, such as oil and gas development and cropland conversion, to develop effective management strategies. A sage-grouse habitat matrix links relative resilience and resistance of sagebrush ecosystems with modeled sage-grouse breeding habitat probabilities to help decisionmakers assess risks and determine appropriate management strategies at both landscape and site scales. Areas for targeted management are assessed by overlaying matrix components with Greater sage-grouse Priority Areas for Conservation and Gunnison sage-grouse critical habitat and linkages, breeding bird concentration areas, and specific habitat threats. Decision tools are discussed for determining the suitability of target areas for management and the most appropriate management actions. A similar approach was developed for the Great Basin that was incorporated into the Federal land use plan amendments and served as the basis of a Bureau of Land Management Fire and Invasives Assessment Tool, which was used to prioritize sage-grouse habitat for targeted management activities.

General Technical Report

EMD Gas Hydrates Committee annual report

Global research on the potential commercial viability of gas extraction from gas hydrates is continuing, predominantly in Asia and in the United States, where recent efforts have focused on the exploration and characterization of gas hydrate petroleum systems and conducting controlled production tests of gas hydrate deposits hosted in mostly sand-rich reservoir systems. In 2017, gas hydrate production testing was conducted in marine settings in the offshore of Japan and China. An additional test was conducted in the Shenhu region of the South China Sea in 2020 to further evaluate the effectiveness of various well completion technologies to produce gas from gas hydrates. Late in 2018, a research partnership led by the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory and the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation established a new Alaska North Slope test site for an extended gas hydrate production pilot with the completion of a stratigraphic test well. With the successful completion of the Prudhoe Bay Unit Hydrate-01 stratigraphic test well, planning is now underway for drilling of three additional wells at the Alaska test site, which will include a geoscience data well and two production test wells. In 2019, the Government of India released the results of one of the most comprehensive gas hydrate scientific drilling investigations ever undertaken, the leadership of the Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 reported on the discovery of several significant gas hydrate accumulations that were considered suitable for future gas hydrate production testing. In September of 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey released a new assessment of the technically recoverable gas hydrate resources on the Alaska North Slope. In 2018, the University of Texas at Austin released a comprehensive report describing the operational and initial technical results of the UT-GOM2-1 Hydrate Pressure Coring Expedition, which drilled and partially cored two wells in Green Canyon Block 955 in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The results of these recently complete gas hydrate geologic and production studies have been further reviewed in this AAPG-EMD Gas Hydrate Committee report.

Alaska

Making connections for bird conservation: linking states, provinces & territories to important wintering and breeding grounds

To effectively conserve migratory landbirds, we need to be involved in conservation beyond our political borders. This has been a central tenet of Partners in Flight (PIF) since the initiative began in 1990 with a focus on Nearctic-Neotropical migrants. Implementation of this concept has also been fundamental to the success of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (e.g., NAWMP 2004). Actions by individual states, provinces and territories are key to the success of PIF efforts at the continental scale, and great progress has been made in recent years though various initiatives. Currently, U.S. state Wildlife Action Plans are outlining a vast array of actions to benefit priority species. However, it is also very important to take action in regions that support these same species at the other end of their migratory movements, to ensure effective protection year-round (Rappole et al. 1983, Webster and Marra 2005, Elliott et al. 2005). For instance, conservation action is needed on the wintering grounds for many birds that breed in Canada and the U.S. but spend a large portion of their annual cycle in Mexico, the West Indies, Central and/or South America. In this document we use maps to summarize migratory connections between individual U.S. states, Canadian provinces & territories and the regions that support the same birds at the other end of migration. The maps give a general picture of where birds go, providing a starting point for targeting action. With this information in hand, decision-makers can explore partnerships and mechanism that would help further conservation action outside their bordersa?|

Partners in Flight Technical Series

Chlordane Hazards to Fish, Wildlife, and Invertebrates: A Synoptic Review

Technical chlordane is an organochlorine compound first introduced into the United States in 1947 in a variety of formulations for use as a broad-spectrum pesticide. By 1974, about 9.5 million kilograms of chlordane were produced annually. Concern over the potential carcinogenicity of chlordane has led to sharply curtailed production. Since 1983, chlordane use in the United States has been prohibited, except for control of underground termites. Chlordane is readily absorbed by warmblooded animals through skin, diet, and inhalation, and distributed throughout the body. In general, residues of chlordane and its metabolites are not measurable in tissues 4 to 8 weeks after exposure, although metabolism rates varied significantly between species. Food chain biomagnification is usually low, except in some marine mammals. In most mammals, the metabolite oxychlordane has proven much more toxic and persistent than the parent chemical.

Contaminant Hazard Reviews

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Technical Report

Palila abundance estimates and trends

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2014 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2013 population was estimated at 1,492−2,132 birds (point estimate: 1,799) and the 2014 population was estimated at 1,697−2,508 (point estimate: 2,070). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2014, and there was no difference in their detection probability due to count sequence. This suggests that greater precision in population estimates can be achieved if future surveys include repeat visits. No palila were detected outside the core survey area in 2013 or 2014, suggesting that most if not all palila inhabit the western slope during the survey period. Since 2003, the size of the area containing all annual palila detections do not indicate a significant change among years, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.21). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have fluctuated moderately above the 2011 minimum (CV = 0.18). The average rate of decline during 1998−2014 was 167 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 16-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 68% decline in the population.

Hawai'i