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At least 1,423 records · Page 79Linked to original sources

USGS2011

Development of a pan-Arctic monitoring plan for polar bears: Background paper

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), by their very nature, and the extreme, remote environment in which they live, are inherently difficult to study and monitor. Monitoring polar bear populations is both arduous and costly and, to be effective, must be a long-term commitment. There are few jurisdictional governments and management boards with a mandate for polar bear research and management, and many have limited resources. Although population monitoring of polar bears has been a focus to some degree within most jurisdictions around the Arctic, of the 19 subpopulations recognised by the IUCN/Species Survival Commission Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), adequate scientific trend data exist for only three of the subpopulations, fair trend data for five and poor or no trend data for the remaining 11 subpopulations (PBSG 2010a). There are especially critical knowledge gaps for the subpopulations in East Greenland, in the Russian Kara and Laptev seas, and in the Chukchi Sea, which is shared between Russia and the United States. The range covered by these subpopulations represents a third of the total area (approx. 23 million km2) of polar bears’ current range, and more than half if the Arctic Basin is included. If we use popular terms, we know close to nothing about polar bears in this portion of their range. As summer sea-ice extent, and to a lesser degree, spring-time extent, continues to retreat, outpacing model forecasts (Stroeve et al. 2007, Pedersen et al. 2009), polar bears face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing habitats. There is a need to use current and synthesised information across the Arctic, and to develop new methods that will facilitate monitoring to generate new knowledge at a pan-Arctic scale. The circumpolar dimension can be lost when efforts are channelled into regional monitoring. Developing and implementing a plan that harmonises local, regional and global efforts will increase our power to detect and understand important trends for polar bears, with particular emphasis on how climate warming may differentially affect populations and habitats. Current knowledge is inadequate for a comprehensive understanding of the present and future impact of climate warming and its interaction with other stressors. The cumulative effects are unknown (Laidre et al. 2008). An integrated pan-Arctic research and monitoring plan will improve the ability to detect future trends, identify the most vulnerable subpopulations and guide effective conservation. There is a need to direct attention and resources where data are deficient to understand the mechanisms that drive trends, and to facilitate more effective and timely conservation response.

Report↗

USGS2011

Playa-lake sedimentation and organic matter accumulation in an Andean piggyback basin: The recent record from the Cuenca de Pozuelos, NW Argentina

Expansive playa‐lake systems situated in high‐altitude piggyback basins are important and conspicuous components of both modern and ancient cordilleran orogenic systems. Extant playa lakes provide vital habitat for numerous endemic species, whereas sediments from these deposystems may record signals of climate change or develop natural resources over geological time. Laguna de los Pozuelos (North‐west Argentina) provides the opportunity for an actualistic sedimentological and geochemical assessment of a piggyback basin playa lake in an area of critical interest for understanding Quaternary palaeoclimate dynamics. Silty clays and diatom ooze are the dominant playa‐lake centre microfacies, with concentrations of total organic carbon and biogenic silica commonly exceeding 1·5 wt% in this sub‐environment. Elemental and stable isotopic analyses point to a mixed organic matter composition in the playa‐lake centre, with substantial contributions from algae and transported aquatic macrophytes. Bulk sediment and organic mass accumulation rates in the southern playa‐lake centre approach 0.22g cm −2 year −1 and 2.89 mg cm −2 year −1 , respectively, indicating moderately rapid deposition with negligible deflation over historic time. Playa margin facies contain higher percentages of fragmented biogenic carbonate (ostracods and charophytes) and inorganically precipitated aragonite crusts due to seasonal pumping and evaporation of ground water. Organic matter accumulation is limited along these heavily bioturbated wet and dry mud flats. Fluvial–lacustrine transitional environments, which are key waterbird habitats, are either silty terminal splay (northern axis) or sandy deltas (southern axis) containing highly oxidized and partially allochthonous organic matter. Modern analogue data from Laguna de los Pozuelos provide key insights for: (i) environmental reconstructions of ancient lake sequences; and (ii) improving facies models for piggyback basins.

Cuenca de Pozuelos↗

USGS2007

Hydrostratigraphic Framework and Selection and Correlation of Geophysical Log Markers in the Surficial Aquifer System, Palm Beach County, Florida

The surficial aquifer system is the major source of freshwater for public water supply in Palm Beach County, Florida, yet many previous studies of the hydrogeology of this aquifer system have focused only on the eastern one-half to one-third of the county in the more densely populated coastal area (Land and others, 1973; Swayze and others, 1980; Swayze and Miller, 1984; Shine and others, 1989). Population growth in the county has resulted in the westward expansion of urbanized areas into agricultural areas and has created new demands on the water resources of the county. Additionally, interest in surface-water resources of central and western areas of the county has increased. In these areas, plans for additional surface-water storage reservoirs are being made under the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan originally proposed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the South Florida Water Management District (1999), and stormwater treatment areas have been constructed by the South Florida Water Management District. Surface-water and ground-water interactions in the Everglades are thought to be important to water budgets, water quality, and ecology (Harvey and others, 2002). Most of the previous hydrogeologic and ground-water flow simulation studies of the surficial aquifer system have not utilized a hydrostratigraphic framework, in which stratigraphic or sequence stratigraphic units, such as those proposed in Cunningham and others (2001), are delineated in this stratigraphically complex aquifer system. A thick zone of secondary permeability mapped by Swayze and Miller (1984) was not subdivided and was identified as only being within the Anastasia Formation of Pleistocene age. Miller (1987) published 11 geologic sections of the surficial aquifer system, but did not delineate any named stratigraphic units in these sections. This limited interpretation has resulted, in part, from the complex facies changes within rocks and sediments of the surficial aquifer system and the seemingly indistinct and repetitious nature of the most common lithologies, which include sand, shell, sandstone, and limestone. Model construction and layer definition in a simulation of ground-water flow within the surficial aquifer system of Palm Beach County utilized only the boundaries of one or two major hydrogeologic zones, such as the Biscayne aquifer and surficial aquifer system; otherwise layers were defined by average elevations rather than geologic structure or stratigraphy (Shine and others, 1989). Additionally, each major permeable zone layer in the model was assumed to have constant hydraulic conductivity with no allowance for the possibility of discrete (thin) flow zones within the zone. The key to understanding the spatial distribution and hydraulic connectivity of permeable zones in the surficial aquifer system beneath Palm Beach County is the development of a stratigraphic framework based on a consistent method of county-wide correlation. Variability in hydraulic properties in the system needs to be linked to the stratigraphic units delineated in this framework, and proper delineation of the hydrostratigraphic framework should provide a better understanding and simulation of the ground-water flow system. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Florida Water Management District, initiated an investigation to develop a hydrostratigraphic framework for the surficial aquifer system in Palm Beach County.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2016

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2026

Potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin over multiple centuries identified using tree-ring based multi-model streamflow reconstructions

The Missouri River basin (MRB), the largest river basin in the United States, presents major water management challenges due to its complex topology and extensive infrastructure designed to manage high annual flows. Severe hydroclimatic events, particularly floods in 1993, 2011, and 2019, have highlighted vulnerabilities, leading the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to enhance flood risk assessments in 2023. This study focuses on the full MRB, using tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions to extend the Basin's historic streamflow perspective. We developed annual streamflow reconstructions for the Hermann, Missouri streamgage from water years 1360–1900 using K-nearest neighbor and principal component regression methods. These reconstructions incorporate 183 tree-ring chronologies (1360–2020) and modeled natural streamflow (1901–‍2020). Reconstructions were evaluated for consistency using statistical measures and wavelet analysis. Both methods produced similar results, confirming their reliability in reconstructing multi-century streamflows. This novel methodology, guided by wavelet analysis, was developed to identify potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin (LMRB), resulting in the identification of 172 potential flood events from water years 1360–2020, with 126 events common to the two versions of the MRB reconstructions. The reconstructed streamflow records showed an increase in the number of events until the late-18th- or mid-19th-century. These findings provide insights into evolving flood characteristics in the LMRB. The novel methodology developed in this study can be used to identify potential flood events from tree-ring based annual streamflow reconstructions and generally be applicable to other river basins.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wyomin↗

USGS2001

The search for reliable aqueous solubility (Sw) and octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow) data for hydrophobic organic compounds; DDT and DDE as a case study

The accurate determination of an organic contaminant’s physico-chemical properties is essential for predicting its environmental impact and fate. Approximately 700 publications (1944–2001) were reviewed and all known aqueous solubilities (S w ) and octanol-water partition coefficients (K ow ) for the organochlorine pesticide, DDT, and its persistent metabolite, DDE were compiled and examined. Two problems are evident with the available database: 1) egregious errors in reporting data and references, and 2) poor data quality and/or inadequate documentation of procedures. The published literature (particularly the collative literature such as compilation articles and handbooks) is characterized by a preponderance of unnecessary data duplication. Numerous data and citation errors are also present in the literature. The percentage of original S w and K ow data in compilations has decreased with time, and in the most recent publications (1994–97) it composes only 6–26 percent of the reported data. The variability of original DDT/DDE S w and K ow data spans 2–4 orders of magnitude, and there is little indication that the uncertainty in these properties has declined over the last 5 decades. A criteria-based evaluation of DDT/DDE S w and K ow data sources shows that 95–100 percent of the database literature is of poor or unevaluatable quality. The accuracy and reliability of the vast majority of the data are unknown due to inadequate documentation of the methods of determination used by the authors. [For example, estimates of precision have been reported for only 20 percent of experimental S w data and 10 percent of experimental K ow data.] Computational methods for estimating these parameters have been increasingly substituted for direct or indirect experimental determination despite the fact that the data used for model development and validation may be of unknown reliability. Because of the prevalence of errors, the lack of methodological documentation, and unsatisfactory data quality, the reliability of the DDT/ DDE S w and K ow database is questionable. The nature and extent of the errors documented in this study are probably indicative of a more general problem in the literature of hydrophobic organic compounds. Under these circumstances, estimation of critical environmental parameters on the basis of S w and K ow (for example, bioconcentration factors, equilibrium partition coefficients) is inadvisable because it will likely lead to incorrect environmental risk assessments. The current state of the database indicates that much greater efforts are needed to: 1) halt the proliferation of erroneous data and references, 2) initiate a coordinated program to develop improved methods of property determination, 3) establish and maintain consistent reporting requirements for physico-chemical property data, and 4) create a mechanism for archiving reliable data for widespread use in the scientific/regulatory community.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1987

Hydrogeology of stratified-drift aquifers and water quality in the Nashua Regional Planning Commission Area, south-central New Hampshire

The Nashua Regional Planning Commission area in south-central New Hampshire is a 12-community area that is experiencing increases in population and in demands for water supply. The study area is underlain by 129 sq mi (40% of the area) of stratified drift which, where sufficiently saturated and permeable, form the most productive aquifers in the area. Eight towns use the stratified-drift aquifers for municipal water supply. The saturated thickness of stratified drift in the study area ranges from 0 or < 20 ft near aquifer boundaries to more than 100 ft in the Souhegan and Merrimack River valleys. The transmissivity of stratified drift ranges from < 2,000 sq ft/day throughout much of the area to more than 8,000 sq ft/day in the communities of Amherst, Brookline, Hollis, Hudson, Litchfield, Merrimack, Milford, Nashua, and Pelham. Directions of groundwater flow are generally from valley walls to surface waters, which act as drains for the stratified drift aquifers. The estimated total yield of community water-supply systems in the study area (surface and groundwater combined) is 22 mgd (million gallons per day). Analytical modeling indicates that an additional 12 mgd could be obtained from six aquifers located in the communities of Amherst, Litchfield, Merrimack, Milford, and Pelham. Other aquifers in the area, not modeled in the study, could also provide increased amounts of water especially where yields could be augmented by induced recharge of surface water. Groundwater quality in the study area is characterized by naturally elevated levels of iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn). Of 32 wells sampled, 7 exceeded EPA recommended drinking water limits for both Fe and Mn, and 3 wells exceeded the Mn limit only. The average total dissolved solids concentration for 32 samples was 121 mg/L. Groundwater in the area is slightly corrosive; pH 's ranged from 5.0-7.3. Groundwater contamination has been detected at two ' Superfund ' sites in the study area located in Milford and Nashua. At both sites, contamination of groundwater has caused the shutdown of municipal and private water supply wells. The widespread effect of applying highway deicing chemicals on groundwater quality is reflected by sodium (Na) concentrations that average 24 mg/L throughout the study area. At 11 of 32 sites sampled, EPA recommended limits for Na (20 mg/L) was exceeded.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2021

Patch utilization and flower visitations by wild bees in a honey bee-dominated, grassland landscape

Understanding habitat needs and patch utilization of wild and managed bees has been identified as a national research priority in the United States. We used occupancy models to investigate patterns of bee use across 1030 transects spanning a gradient of floral resource abundance and richness and distance from apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States. Estimates of transect use by honey bees were nearly 1.0 during our 3.5-month sampling period, suggesting honey bees were nearly ubiquitous across transects. Wild bees more frequently used transects with higher flower richness and more abundant flowers; however, the effect size of the native flower abundance covariate ( = 3.90 ± 0.65 [1SE]) was four times greater than the non-native flower covariate ( = 0.99 ± 0.17). We found some evidence that wild bee use was lower at transects near commercial apiaries, but the effect size was imprecise ( = 1.4 ± 0.81). Honey bees were more frequently detected during sampling events with more non-native flowers and higher species richness but showed an uncertain relationship with native flower abundance. Of the 4039 honey bee and flower interactions, 85% occurred on non-native flowers, while only 43% of the 738 wild bee observations occurred on non-native flowers. Our study suggests wild bees and honey bees routinely use the same resource patches in the PPR but often visit different flowering plants. The greatest potential for resource overlap between honey bees and wild bees appears to be for non-native flowers in the PPR. Our results are valuable to natural resource managers tasked with supporting habitat for managed and wild pollinators in agroecosystems.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2016

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS1997

1997 flood tracking chart for the Red River of the North basin

The flood tracking chart for the Red River of the North Basin can be used by local citizens and emergency response personnel to determine the latest river stage. By comparing the current stage (water-surface elevation above some datum) and predicted flood crest to the recorded peak stages of previous floods, emergency response personnel and residents can make informed decisions concerning the threat to life and property. The flood tracking chart shows a map of the basin with the location of major real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Click on a station in the map or in the list below the map. Streamflow and stage information for the last 7 days, current stage relative to recorded peak stages, and streamflow for the previous 18 months are provided in graphic form, along with information such as station location and length of record. The National Weather Service has direct access to all information collected by the USGS for use in their forecasting models and routinely broadcasts the forecast information to the news media and on shortwave radio. The radio frequencies are 162.400 MHz (megahertz) in Petersburg, N. Dak., and Detroit Lakes, Minn.; 162.425 MHz in Webster, N. Dak., and Bemidji, Minn.; 162.450 MHz in Roosevelt, Minn.; 162.475 MHz in Grand Forks and Amenia, N. Dak.; and 162.550 MHz in Thief River Falls, Minn. To use the flood tracking chart for a particular property, determine the approximate elevation of the threatened property and the elevation of the gaging station that is closest to the threatened property. For example, most people in Grand Forks, N. Dak., probably will use the Red River of the North at Grand Forks station. Record the flood elevation for the gaging station. Compare the flood elevation to the elevation of the property to immediately know if the property has an impending threat of flooding. One must be cautioned by the fact that the surface of flowing water is not flat but has a slope. Therefore, the water-surface elevation near a threatened property might not be the same as the river stages at the gaging stations. The network of river-gaging stations in the Red River of the North Basin is operated by the USGS in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the Southeast Cass Water Resources District, the Cass County Joint Water Resource District, the Red River Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Watershed Management Board. For more information about USGS programs in North Dakota, contact the District Chief, U.S. Geological Survey, North Dakota District, at (701) 250-7400.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Ensemble species distribution model identifies survey opportunities for at-risk bearded beaksedge (Rhynchospora crinipes) in the southeastern United States

Locating additional occurrences of at-risk species can inform assessments of their status and conservation needs (including potential legal protections). The perennial bearded beaksedge ( Rhynchospora crinipes ) ranges from Mississippi to North Carolina, but known occurrences are limited. Because of the species' apparent rarity, a model to identify areas with suitable habitat conditions for the species will allow conservationists to effectively prioritize and allocate scarce surveying resources. We used known occurrence records, a suite of environmental datasets, and four species distribution modeling techniques (generalized additive, GAM; maximum entropy, MaxEnt; generalized boosted, GBM; and weighted ensemble) to generate maps to inform surveys for R. crinipes . The ensemble approach improved predictive performance (AUC-PR = 0.95) compared to other techniques (individual model AUC-PR ranged from 0.7 to 0.8). We also obtained quantitative insights on the species' habitat relationships, including the likelihood of R. crinipes 's presence near Atlantic white cedar ( Chamaecyparis thyoides ) habitat and floodplains, which is consistent with prior field observations. The ensemble model indicated that 3.6% of the study area could be suitable habitat, but only 0.38% had high suitability. Small stream riparian habitats and Atlantic swamp forests in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia had the highest proportion of suitable areas. Prioritizing surveys in areas with model-indicated high habitat suitability is expected to reveal additional R. crinipes occurrences. We suggest surveying efforts for other at-risk species may benefit from using an ensemble modeling approach to identify and prioritize survey areas and improve ecological knowledge of these species.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Caro↗

USGS1995

Synthesis of natural flows at selected sites in and near the Milk River basin, Montana, 1928-89

Natural monthly streamflows were synthesized for the years 1928-89 at 2 sites in the St. Mary River Basin and 11 sites in the Milk River Basin in north- central Montana. The sites are represented as nodes in a streamflow accounting model being developed by the Bureau of Reclamation for the Milk River Basin. Recorded flows at most sites have been affected by human activities, including reservoir storage and irrigation diversions. The flows at the model nodes were corrected for the effects of these activities to obtain synthesized flows. The synthesized flows at nodes with seasonal and short-term records were extended using a statistical technique. The methods of synthesis varied, depending on upstream activities and information available. Flows at sites in the St. Mary River Basin and at the Milk River at Eastern Crossing of International Boundary pre- viously had been synthesized. The flows at mainstem sites downstream from the Milk River at Eastern Crossing were synthesized by adding synthesized natural runoff from intervening drainage areas to natural flows for Milk River at Eastern Crossing. Natural runoff from intervening drainage areas was estimated by multiplying recorded flows at selected index gaging stations on tributary streams by the ratio of the intervening drainage area to the combined drainage area of the index stations. The recorded flows for Milk River at Western Crossing of International Boundary and for Peoples Creek near Dodson, Montana, were assumed to be natural flows. The synthesized annual flows at the mouth of the Milk River compared favorably with the recorded flows near the mouth when the effects of upstream irrigation were considered.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2003

Influence of transitional volcanic strata on lateral diversion at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Natural hydraulic barriers exist at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential high‐level nuclear waste repository, that have been identified as possible lateral diversions for reducing deep percolation through the waste storage area. Historical development of the conceptual model of lateral diversion has been limited by available field data, but numerical investigations presented the possibility of significant lateral diversion due to the presence of a thin, porous rock layer, the Paintbrush nonwelded tuffs. Analytical analyses of the influence of transitional changes in properties suggest that minimal lateral diversion is likely at Yucca Mountain. Numerical models, to this point, have not accounted for the gradual transition of properties or the existence of multiple layers that could inadvertently influence the simulation of lateral diversion as an artifact of numerical model discretization. Analyses were made of subsurface matric potential measurements, and comparisons were made of surface infiltration estimates with deeper percolation flux calculations using chloride‐mass‐balance calculations and simulations of measured temperature profiles. These analyses suggest that insignificant lateral diversion has occurred above the repository horizon and that water generally moves vertically through the Paintbrush nonwelded tuffs.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2010

Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying climate conditions

The relative impact of a large upstream dam versus in‐reach groundwater pumping on stream temperatures was analyzed for humid, semiarid, and arid conditions with long dry seasons to represent typical climate regions where large dams are present, such as the western United States or eastern Australia. Stream temperatures were simulated using the CE‐QUAL‐W2 water quality model over a 110 km model grid, with the presence or absence of a dam at the top of the reach and pumping in the lower 60 km of the reach. Measured meteorological data from three representative locations were used as model input to simulate the impact of varying climate conditions on streamflow and stream temperature. For each climate condition four hypothetical streamflow scenarios were modeled: (1) natural (no dam or pumping), (2) large upstream dam present, (3) dam with in‐reach pumping, and (4) no dam with pumping, resulting in 12 cases. Dam removal, in the presence or absence of pumping, resulted in significant changes in stream temperature throughout the year for all three climate conditions. From March to August, the presence of a dam caused monthly mean stream temperatures to decrease on average by approximately 3.0°C, 2.5°C, and 2.0°C for the humid, semiarid, and arid conditions, respectively; however, stream temperatures generally increased from September to February. Pumping caused stream temperatures to warm in summer and cool in winter by generally less than 0.5°C because of a smaller pumping‐induced alteration in streamflow relative to the dam. Though the presence or absence of a large dam led to greater changes in stream temperature than the presence or absence of pumping, ephemeral conditions were increased both temporally and spatially because of pumping.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2010

Optimal pump and recharge management model for nitrate removal in the Warren groundwater basin, California

The town of Yucca Valley located in the southwest part of the Mojave Desert in southern California relies on groundwater pumping from the Warren groundwater basin as its sole source of water supply. This significant dependency has resulted in a large imbalance between groundwater pumpage and natural recharge, causing groundwater levels in the basin to decline more than 90 m from the late 1940s to 1994. Consequently, an artificial recharge program proposed by the Hi-Desert Water District, which provides water service to the town of Yucca Valley, was implemented for the purpose of recovering the groundwater levels; however, the rise in groundwater levels has caused nitrate ( NO 3 ) "> ( NO 3 ) (NO3) concentration to increase simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to develop an optimal pump and recharge strategy for a planned conjunctive-use project to remove the high-nitrate concentration while maintaining groundwater levels at desired elevations at specified locations as well as meeting water demand. An optimization/management model is formulated with a linear objective function and nonlinear constraints. The response matrix approach is used to link the optimization model with the simulation model. Because of nonlinearity, the response matrix is updated and iteration is required for convergence. A systematic scheme is also developed for finding a feasible initial policy. Three different scenarios are considered in the management model. The results obtained from each scenario are analyzed and discussed.

California↗

USGS2024

Predicting future grizzly bear habitat use in the Bitterroot Ecosystem under recolonization and reintroduction scenarios

Many conservation actions must be implemented with limited data. This is especially true when planning recovery efforts for extirpated populations, such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) within the Bitterroot Ecosystem (BE), where strategies for reestablishing a resident population are being evaluated. Here, we applied individual-based movement models developed for a nearby grizzly bear population to predict habitat use in and near the BE, under scenarios of natural recolonization, reintroduction, and a combination. All simulations predicted that habitat use by grizzly bears would be higher in the northern half of the study area. Under the natural recolonization scenario, use was concentrated in Montana, but became more uniform across the northern BE in Idaho over time. Use was more concentrated in east-central Idaho under the reintroduction scenario. Assuming that natural recolonization continues even if bears are reintroduced, use remained widespread across the northern half of the BE and surrounding areas. Predicted habitat maps for the natural recolonization scenario aligned well with outlier and GPS collar data available for grizzly bears in the study area, with Spearman rank correlations of ≥0.93 and mean class values of ≥9.1 (where class 10 was the highest relative predicted use; each class 1–10 represented 10% of the landscape). In total, 52.4% of outlier locations and 79% of GPS collar locations were in class 10 in our predicted habitat maps for natural recolonization. Simulated grizzly bears selected habitats over a much larger landscape than the BE itself under all scenarios, including multiple-use and private lands, similar to existing populations that have expanded beyond recovery zones. This highlights the importance of recognizing and planning for the role of private lands in recovery efforts, including understanding resources needed to prevent and respond to human-grizzly bear conflict and maintain public acceptance of grizzly bears over a large landscape.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS1991

Ground-water resources and simulated effects of withdrawals in the Bountiful area, Utah

Ground-water resources in the Bountiful area, Utah, were studied to document changes in ground-water conditions and to simulate the effects of increased ground-water withdrawals and changes in recharge. The aquifer system is in basin-fill deposits and is primarily a confined system with unconfined parts along the mountain front. Recharge to the aquifer system was estimated to range from about 22,000 to 32,000 acre-feet per year during 1947-85. Discharge was estimated to range from 26,000 to 30,000 acre-feet per year during 1947-85. Long-term trends of ground-water levels indicate a steady decline at most observation wells from 1952 to 1962. Importation of surface water for irrigation in 1962 resulted in decreased ground-water withdrawals, causing water levels to rise. Water levels fluctuated from 1962 to 1985, depending on changes in withdrawals and precipitation. A computer model of the aquifer system was constructed and calibrated using water-level data from 1946 and changes in ground-water withdrawals from 1947-86. Simulations of aquifer responses to projected withdrawals were based on a 50-percent increase in the 1981-85 rate of municipal and industrial withdrawals for 20 years using both average and less-than-average recharge rates. The simulations indicated water-level declines between 5 and 50 feet; a decrease in natural discharge to drains, by evapotranspiration, and to Great Salt Lake; and a decrease of ground water in storage after 20 years between 25,000 acre-feet using the average recharge rate, and 70,000 acre-feet using the less-than-average recharge rate.

Utah↗