Ensemble species distribution model identifies survey opportunities for at-risk bearded beaksedge (Rhynchospora crinipes) in the southeastern United States

C. Ramirez-Reyes; G. Street; Francisco Vilella; T. Jones-Farrand; M. S. Wiggers; K. O. Evans

doi:10.3375/043.041.0108

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Ensemble species distribution model identifies survey opportunities for at-risk bearded beaksedge (Rhynchospora crinipes) in the southeastern United States

C. Ramirez-Reyes·G. Street·Francisco Vilella·T. Jones-Farrand·M. S. Wiggers·K. O. Evans

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Abstract

Locating additional occurrences of at-risk species can inform assessments of their status and conservation needs (including potential legal protections). The perennial bearded beaksedge ( Rhynchospora crinipes ) ranges from Mississippi to North Carolina, but known occurrences are limited. Because of the species' apparent rarity, a model to identify areas with suitable habitat conditions for the species will allow conservationists to effectively prioritize and allocate scarce surveying resources. We used known occurrence records, a suite of environmental datasets, and four species distribution modeling techniques (generalized additive, GAM; maximum entropy, MaxEnt; generalized boosted, GBM; and weighted ensemble) to generate maps to inform surveys for R. crinipes . The ensemble approach improved predictive performance (AUC-PR = 0.95) compared to other techniques (individual model AUC-PR ranged from 0.7 to 0.8). We also obtained quantitative insights on the species' habitat relationships, including the likelihood of R. crinipes 's presence near Atlantic white cedar ( Chamaecyparis thyoides ) habitat and floodplains, which is consistent with prior field observations. The ensemble model indicated that 3.6% of the study area could be suitable habitat, but only 0.38% had high suitability. Small stream riparian habitats and Atlantic swamp forests in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia had the highest proportion of suitable areas. Prioritizing surveys in areas with model-indicated high habitat suitability is expected to reveal additional R. crinipes occurrences. We suggest surveying efforts for other at-risk species may benefit from using an ensemble modeling approach to identify and prioritize survey areas and improve ecological knowledge of these species.

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Natural Areas Journal Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 27.449790329784214° to 36.491973470593685° latitude; -91.14257812499999° to -75.1904296875° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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C. Ramirez-Reyes, G. Street, Francisco Vilella, T. Jones-Farrand, M. S. Wiggers, K. O. Evans. 2021. Ensemble species distribution model identifies survey opportunities for at-risk bearded beaksedge (Rhynchospora crinipes) in the southeastern United States. https://doi.org/10.3375/043.041.0108

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