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Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: Pilot-point theory, guidelines, and research directions

Pilot points have been used in geophysics and hydrogeology for at least 30 years as a means to bridge the gap between estimating a parameter value in every cell of a model and subdividing models into a small number of homogeneous zones. Pilot points serve as surrogate parameters at which values are estimated in the inverse-modeling process, and their values are interpolated onto the modeling domain in such a way that heterogeneity can be represented at a much lower computational cost than trying to estimate parameters in every cell of a model. Although the use of pilot points is increasingly common, there are few works documenting the mathematical implications of their use and even fewer sources of guidelines for their implementation in hydrogeologic modeling studies. This report describes the mathematics of pilot-point use, provides guidelines for their use in the parameter-estimation software suite (PEST), and outlines several research directions. Two key attributes for pilot-point definitions are highlighted. First, the difference between the information contained in the every-cell parameter field and the surrogate parameter field created using pilot points should be in the realm of parameters which are not informed by the observed data (the null space). Second, the interpolation scheme for projecting pilot-point values onto model cells ideally should be orthogonal. These attributes are informed by the mathematics and have important ramifications for both the guidelines and suggestions for future research.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of conservation practices in the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed, southwestern Oklahoma

The Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed encompasses about 813 square kilometers of rural farm land in Caddo, Custer, and Washita Counties in southwestern Oklahoma. The Fort Cobb Reservoir and six stream segments were identified on the Oklahoma 1998 303(d) list as not supporting designated beneficial uses because of impairment by nutrients, suspended solids, sedimentation, pesticides, and unknown toxicity. As a result, State and Federal agencies, in collaboration with conservation districts and landowners, started conservation efforts in 2001 to decrease erosion and transport of sediments and nutrients to the reservoir and improve water quality in tributaries. The U.S. Department of Agriculture selected the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed in 2003 as 1 of 14 benchmark watersheds under the Conservation Effectiveness Assessment Project with the objective of quantifying the environmental benefits derived from agricultural conservation programs in reducing inflows of sediments and phosphorus to the reservoir. In November 2004, the Biologic, Geographic, Geologic, and Water Disciplines of the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Agricultural Research Service, Grazinglands Research Laboratory in El Reno, Oklahoma, began an interdisciplinary investigation to produce an integrated publication to complement this program. This publication is a compilation of 10 report chapters describing land uses, soils, geology, climate, and water quality in streams and the reservoir through results of field and remote sensing investigations from 2004 to 2007. The investigations indicated that targeting best-management practices to small intermittent streams draining to the reservoir and to the Cobb Creek subwatershed may effectively augment efforts to improve eutrophic to hypereutrophic conditions that continue to affect the reservoir. The three major streams flowing into the reservoir contribute nutrients causing eutrophication, but minor streams draining cultivated fields near the reservoir appeared to be disproportionate contributors of nutrients. Increasing conservation practices on small streams may have a greater effect in mitigating eutrophication in the reservoir than additional installation of such measures on the larger creeks.

Oklahoma↗

Flood-frequency comparison from 1995 to 2016 and trends in peak streamflow in Arkansas, water years 1930–2016

In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, began a study in Arkansas to investigate possible increasing trends in annual peak streamflow data and the possible resulting increase in the annual exceedance probability flood (AEPF) predictions. Temporal trends of peak streamflow were investigated at 15 selected streamgages on unregulated streams in Arkansas having 30 or more years of peak streamflow data through the 2016 water year. For the period of record at each streamgage, the Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that 14 of the 15 streamgages had no statistically significant peak streamflow trends and 1 streamgage had a statistically significant decreasing peak streamflow trend. Visual examination of the locally estimated scatterplot smoothing technique trend lines of the peak streamflow data indicated a possible increasing peak streamflow trend at 8 of the 15 streamgages since the 1990s. A sequential series analysis of the 1-percent AEPF at each of the 15 selected streamgages was completed by selecting an initial subset of the oldest peak streamflow data from each site to estimate the initial 1-percent AEPF. This initial peak streamflow data subset was subsequently appended with 10-year increments of additional peak streamflow data until the full period of peak streamflow data was analyzed. The maximum increase in the 1-percent AEPF was 113 percent, and the maximum decrease was 31.9 percent. Percentage differences between the AEPFs derived from regional regression equations presented in the 1995 and 2016 Arkansas flood-frequency reports were compared. The average percentage differences for the 74 selected locations indicate that the 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPFs computed using the 2016 regional regression equations were higher by 3.52, 5.10, 8.59, and 13.31 percent, respectively (25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval floods), than the same percentage AEPFs computed using the 1995 regional regression equations. The average percentage differences between the 1995 and 2016 AEPFs for the 10-percent AEPF (10-year recurrence interval flood) resulted in 2016 AEPF predictions being 0.41 percent higher. For the 50- and 20-percent AEPFs (2- and 5-year recurrence interval floods), the 2016 AEPFs were less than the 1995 AEPFs by 2.53 and 0.31 percent, respectively.

Arkansas↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify fecal contamination sources in South Oyster Bay on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering South Oyster Bay, a shallow embayment on the southern shore of Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the bay and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, and surrounding land use where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Analysis revealed that the most substantial source of fecal contamination to South Oyster Bay was stormwater, particularly during the summer months. The highest frequency of fecal coliform detections in source sites were under wet summer conditions, and the highest fecal coliform concentrations were under wet summer conditions at the Cedar Creek near Bay Place and Unqua Lake Culvert sites (more than 16,000 most probable number per 100 milliliters each). The human-associated Bacteroides marker was the most frequently detected microbial source tracking marker in South Oyster Bay (50 percent positive detections). The human marker was detected at least twice in all surface water source and receptor sites, except for the Massapequa Lake East Culvert source site that did not have any positive human marker detections. Canine contamination was prolific at source sites but was associated with low fecal coliform concentrations in the winter months. All detections of the canine-associated Bacteroides marker were in samples collected during the winter season and were associated with fecal coliform concentrations below the reporting limit, indicating that birds are not a persistent source of fecal coliform to South Oyster Bay. The absence of fecal coliform and human markers in groundwater samples collected throughout the larger study area indicates that water from cesspools or septic tanks do not contribute fecal coliform to the bay. Further, microbial source tracking markers were not detected in the sandy sediment collected at Zachs Bay. Based a classification scheme developed to convey the degree of fecal contamination to stakeholders and resource managers, the Cedar Creek near Bay Place and Unqua Lake Culvert sites were identified as locations that contribute substantial fecal contamination to South Oyster Bay.

New York↗

Hydrogeology and water quality of the unconsolidated aquifer system in the lower Fall Creek valley, Tompkins County, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Tompkins County and the Town of Dryden, conducted a hydrogeologic investigation of the lower Fall Creek unconsolidated aquifer system in Tompkins County, New York. This study is part of an ongoing effort to characterize major valley-fill aquifers in the region to support sustainable groundwater management. The lower Fall Creek valley, encompassing the Village of Freeville, the unincorporated communities of Etna, and the hamlets of McLean and Varna, has experienced moderate development and relies heavily on groundwater for residential, agricultural, and commercial use. The study area spans approximately 51 square miles along the boundary of the Allegheny Plateau and North Rim of the Allegheny Plateau physiographic provinces. The aquifer system, composed primarily of glacially derived sand and gravel deposits, includes both unconfined and confined aquifer units. For the approximately 2,300 people who live over the aquifers, groundwater is the sole source of drinking water. In some areas, such as the Village of Freeville, artesian conditions exist, with potentiometric heads exceeding 25 feet above land surface. This report describes the hydrogeologic framework, aquifer distribution, groundwater-flow dynamics, and water quality of the lower Fall Creek aquifer system. Groundwater is generally hard and contains elevated concentrations of redox-sensitive constituents, such as iron and manganese relative to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant levels. Arsenic was not detected above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level during this study but remains a regional concern due to past detections in the study area and nearby aquifers. The findings provide data for local planners and resource managers to use in understanding and protecting this water resource.

New York↗

Estimated water use in Washington, 2005

Water use in the State of Washington has evolved in the past century from meager domestic and stock water needs to the current complex requirements of domestic-water users, large irrigation projects, industrial plants, and numerous other uses such as fish habitat and recreational activities. Since 1950, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has, at 5-year intervals, compiled data on the amount of water used in homes, businesses, industries, and on farms throughout the State. This water-use data, combined with other related USGS information, has facilitated a unique understanding of the effects of human activity on the State's water resources. As water availability continues to emerge as an important issue in the 21st century, the need for consistent, long-term water-use data will increase to support wise use of this essential natural resource. This report presents state and county estimates of the amount of public- and self-supplied water used for domestic, irrigation, livestock, aquaculture, industrial, mining, and thermoelectric power purposes in the State of Washington during 2005. Offstream fresh-water use was estimated to be 5,780 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Domestic water use was estimated to be 648 Mgal/d or 11 percent of the total. Irrigation water use was estimated to be 3,520 Mgal/d, or 61 percent of the total. Industrial fresh-water use was estimated to be 520 Mgal/d, or 9 percent of the total. These three categories accounted for about 81 percent (4,690 Mgal/d) of the total of the estimated offstream freshwater use in Washington during 2005.

Washington↗

Hydrogeologic framework of the Wood River Valley aquifer system, south-central Idaho

The Wood River Valley contains most of the population of Blaine County and the cities of Sun Valley, Ketchum, Hailey, and Bellevue. This mountain valley is underlain by the alluvial Wood River Valley aquifer system, which consists primarily of a single unconfined aquifer that underlies the entire valley, an underlying confined aquifer that is present only in the southernmost valley, and the confining unit that separates them. The entire population of the area depends on groundwater for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells, and rapid population growth since the 1970s has caused concern about the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resource. As part of an ongoing U.S. Geological Survey effort to characterize the groundwater resources of the Wood River Valley, this report describes the hydrogeologic framework of the Wood River Valley aquifer system. Although most of the Wood River Valley aquifer system is composed of Quaternary-age sediments and basalts of the Wood River Valley and its tributaries, older igneous, sedimentary, or metamorphic rocks that underlie these Quaternary deposits also are used for water supply. It is unclear to what extent these rocks are hydraulically connected to the main part of Wood River Valley aquifer system and thus whether they constitute separate aquifers. Paleozoic sedimentary rocks in and near the study area that produce water to wells and springs are the Phi Kappa and Trail Creek Formations (Ordovician and Silurian), the Milligen Formation (Devonian), and the Sun Valley Group including the Wood River Formation (Pennsylvanian-Permian) and the Dollarhide Formation (Permian). These sedimentary rocks are intruded by granitic rocks of the Late Cretaceous Idaho batholith. Eocene Challis Volcanic Group rocks overlie all of the older rocks (except where removed by erosion). Miocene Idavada Volcanics are found in the southern part of the study area. Most of these rocks have been folded, faulted, and metamorphosed to some degree, thus rock types and their relationships vary over distance. Quaternary-age sediment and basalt compose the primary source of groundwater in the Wood River Valley aquifer system. These Quaternary deposits can be divided into three units: a coarse-grained sand and gravel unit, a fine-grained silt and clay unit, and a single basalt unit. The fine- and coarse-grained units were primarily deposited as alluvium derived from glaciation in the surrounding mountains and upper reaches of tributary canyons. The basalt unit is found in the southeastern Bellevue fan area and is composed of two flows of different ages. Most of the groundwater produced from the Wood River Valley aquifer system is from the coarse-grained deposits. The altitude of the pre-Quaternary bedrock surface in the Wood River Valley was compiled from about 1,000 well-driller reports for boreholes drilled to bedrock and about 70 Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) ambient-noise measurements. The bedrock surface generally mimics the land surface by decreasing down tributary canyons and the main valley from north to south; it ranges from more than 6,700 feet in Baker Creek to less than 4,600 feet in the central Bellevue fan. Most of the south-central portion of the Bellevue fan is underlain by an apparent topographically closed area on the bedrock surface that appears to drain to the southwest towards Stanton Crossing. Quaternary sediment thickness ranges from less than a foot on main and tributary valley margins to about 350 feet in the central Bellevue fan. Hydraulic conductivity for 81 wells in the study area was estimated from well-performance tests reported on well-driller reports. Estimated hydraulic conductivity for 79 wells completed in alluvium ranges from 1,900 feet per day (ft/d) along Warm Springs Creek to less than 1 ft/d in upper Croy Canyon. A well completed in bedrock had an estimated hydraulic conductivity value of 10 ft/d, one well completed in basalt had a value of 50 ft/d, and three wells completed in the confined system had values ranging from 32 to 52 ft/d. Subsurface outflow of groundwater from the Wood River Valley aquifer system into the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was estimated to be 4,000 acre-feet per year. Groundwater outflow beneath Stanton Crossing to the Camas Prairie was estimated to be 300 acre-feet per year.

Idaho↗

PONDCALC: A tool to estimate discharge from the Alviso Salt Ponds, California

Former commercial salt ponds in Alviso, California, now are operated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to provide habitat for birds. The USFWS has modified the operation of the ponds to prevent exceedingly high salinity. Ponds that were formerly hydraulically isolated from South San Francisco Bay and adjacent sloughs now are managed as flow-through ponds, and some are allowed to discharge to the Bay and sloughs. This discharge is allowed under a permit issued by the Regional Water Quality Control Board. As a requirement of the permit, the USFWS must estimate the amount of discharge from each discharge pond for the period May through November of each year. To facilitate the accurate estimation of pond discharge, a calculation methodology (hereafter referred to as 'calculator' or PONDCALC) for the discharging Alviso ponds has been developed as a Microsoft Excel file and is presented in this report. The presence of flap gates on one end of the discharge culverts, which allow only outflow from a pond, complicates the hydraulic analysis of flow through the culverts. The equation typically used for culvert flow contains an energy loss coefficient that had to be determined empirically using measured water discharge and head at the discharge structure of one of the ponds. A standard weir-flow equation is included in PONDCALC for discharge calculation in the ponds having weir box structures in addition to culverts. The resulting methodology is applicable only to the five Alviso ponds (A2W, A3W, A7, A14, and A16) that discharge to South San Francisco Bay or adjacent sloughs under the management practices for 2005.

California↗

Methods and Indicators for Assessment of Regional Ground-Water Conditions in the Southwestern United States

Monitoring the status and trends in the availability of the Nation's ground-water supplies is important to scientists, planners, water managers, and the general public. This is especially true in the semiarid to arid southwestern United States where rapid population growth and limited surface-water resources have led to increased use of ground-water supplies and water-level declines of several hundred feet in many aquifers. Individual well observations may only represent aquifer conditions in a limited area, and wells may be screened over single or multiple aquifers, further complicating single-well interpretations. Additionally, changes in ground-water conditions may involve time scales ranging from days to many decades, depending on the timing of recharge, soil and aquifer properties, and depth to the water table. The lack of an easily identifiable ground-water property indicative of current conditions, combined with differing time scales of water-level changes, makes the presentation of ground-water conditions a difficult task, particularly on a regional basis. One approach is to spatially present several indicators of ground-water conditions that address different time scales and attributes of the aquifer systems. This report describes several methods and indicators for presenting differing aspects of ground-water conditions using water-level observations in existing data-sets. The indicators of ground-water conditions developed in this study include areas experiencing water-level decline and water-level rise, recent trends in ground-water levels, and current depth to ground water. The computer programs written to create these indicators of ground-water conditions and display them in an interactive geographic information systems (GIS) format are explained and results illustrated through analyses of ground-water conditions for selected alluvial basins in the Lower Colorado River Basin in Arizona.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeologic characterization of Area B, Fort Detrick, Maryland

Groundwater in the karst groundwater system at Area B of Fort Detrick in Frederick County, Maryland, is contaminated with chlorinated solvents from the past disposal of laboratory wastes. In cooperation with U.S. Army Environmental Command and U.S. Army Garrison Fort Detrick, the U.S. Geological Survey performed a 3-year study to refine the conceptual model of groundwater flow in and around Area B of Fort Detrick at the site- to regional-scale. The investigation was designed to review the geologic setting, assess the temporal variability of the hydrologic system, evaluate the potential for interbasin groundwater flow, determine the degree of vertical connectivity of the aquifer, characterize the sources and timing of groundwater recharge, and identify if dyes from previous tracer tests continue to drain from the aquifer. This study established a continuous hydrologic monitoring network of 12 water level gages, 2 streamgages, a precipitation gage, and in situ fluorometric monitoring. A water budget analysis was performed using hydrologic monitoring data and a soil-water balance model constructed for the study. In this study each individual water budget term is calculated using available data or through modeling, and a water budget residual term is calculated. If the water budget residual term is small relative to the uncertainty of the underlying data, then an additional import or export of water (in other words, interbasin transfer) is not needed to fully describe the hydrologic system. Groundwater and spring samples from 20 locations were collected in a 2019 synoptic geochemical sampling event and analyzed for a suite of analytes that included groundwater age tracer constituents. The karst groundwater system was found to be highly responsive to hydrologic events, with strong water level and stream base flow responses to individual storm events and a historic wet period in 2017 and 2018. The water budget analysis included historic flooding in May 2018, though more typical hydrologic patterns were observed in 2019 and 2020. During most evaluated intervals, the water budget residual was less than the estimated uncertainty on the residual for the two Carroll Creek watersheds, which suggested no substantial net interbasin flow occurs from these watersheds. The watershed difference area, a region that includes Area B, had a significant negative water budget residual, which may be the result of a net interbasin import of groundwater or the result of focused groundwater recharge not simulated by the soil-water balance model. Geochemical analysis and groundwater age dating reveals shallow groundwater (approximately less than [<] 150 feet deep) appears to be relatively young (approximately <30 years) and to be recharged in the vicinity of Area B. In the deep groundwater sampled in this study (approximately greater than [>] 150 feet deep), older groundwater from a differing recharge source, based on stable isotopes and noble gas analyses, is observed and interpreted to represent less direct connectivity to the surface and increased proportions of water recharged to the north and (or) west of Area B. A clustering analysis to reveal groupings within the suite of geochemical data was used to define seven groups. The groupings generally show that wells in similar depths and lateral aquifer positions generally cluster together, with some exceptions. Although limited by suspended sediments, the in situ fluorometric monitoring at springs did not detect any dye leaving the system above the limit of detection for the method. Dye was only detected above the limit of detection in one well, which was used as an injection well during a previous dye tracer test. The results of this study support and refine the conceptual site model of groundwater hydrology at Area B. The geologic and geophysical log review in this study agrees with prior assessments of physical controls on groundwater flow. A literature review of mid-Atlantic karst studies identified similar controls reported in these environments. The additional characterization of hydrologic responsiveness in this study suggests that hydrologic conditions and events are important considerations when interpreting potentiometric surfaces and contaminant trends over time and highlights the importance of continuous hydrologic monitoring. There is evidence to suggest that either intense focused groundwater recharge occurs in the vicinity of Area B or net along-valley groundwater interbasin flow from the upper study watershed enters the lower watershed and discharges to Carroll Creek. Geochemical analyses also suggest that water recharged from Catoctin Mountain and the elevated areas to the north and (or) west of the site may be present in the older and deeper Area B groundwater.

Maryland↗

Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. This work is part of that reexamination. The stationarity assumption is a concern because flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This report summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 5

Many ungulates migrate between distinct summer and winter ranges to take advantage of spatially and temporally variable food sources and avoid threats such as predators and deep snow. In 2018, the U.S. Department of the Interior established Secretarial Order 3362, which provided Federal support to expand existing research efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations by enhancing habitat quality for ungulates across the Western United States. In response to the order, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created the Corridor Mapping Team, which is a collaboration among 11 State agencies, regional and Federal partners, and an expanding number of Tribal wildlife agencies. Together, the Corridor Mapping Team maps ungulate migrations throughout the Western United States and publishes them in the USGS “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series. This report details migrations and seasonal ranges from 36 additional herds and includes 2 herd updates detailed in previous reports. The Corridor Mapping Team has mapped the migrations and seasonal ranges of 218 unique herds for the report series, including this report. The report series serves as a map-based inventory of the ungulate migrations across the Western United States for biologists, managers, policymakers, and conservation practitioners. Building on the previous report volumes in the series, volume 5 additionally describes some of the local and national initiatives that are incorporating the products, tools, and information from this growing USGS report series.

Navajo Nation↗

Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2005 and 2003 to 2005

The High Plains aquifer underlies 111.4 million acres (174,000 square miles) in parts of eight States-Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Water-level declines began in parts of the High Plains aquifer soon after the beginning of extensive ground-water irrigation. This report presents water-level changes in the High Plains aquifer from the time prior to substantial ground-water irrigation development (about 1950) to 2005 and from 2003 to 2005. Water-level changes from predevelopment to 2005 ranged between a rise of 84 feet and a decline of 277 feet. Area-weighted, average water-level change in the aquifer was a decline of 12.8 feet from predevelopment to 2005, a decline of 0.8 foot from 2003 to 2004, and a decline of 0.2 foot from 2004 to 2005. Total water in storage in the aquifer in 2005 was about 2,925 million acre-feet, which was a decline of about 253 million acre-feet (or 9 percent) since predevelopment.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

StreamStats in Oklahoma– Drainage-basin characteristics and peak-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams

The USGS Streamflow Statistics (StreamStats) Program was created to make geographic information systems-based estimation of streamflow statistics easier, faster, and more consistent than previously used manual techniques. The StreamStats user interface is a map-based internet application that allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected U.S. Geological Survey data-collection stations and ungaged sites of interest. The application relies on the data collected at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, computer aided computations of drainage-basin characteristics, and published regression equations for several geographic regions comprising the United States. The StreamStats application interface allows the user to (1) obtain information on features in selected map layers, (2) delineate drainage basins for ungaged sites, (3) download drainage-basin polygons to a shapefile, (4) compute selected basin characteristics for delineated drainage basins, (5) estimate selected streamflow statistics for ungaged points on a stream, (6) print map views, (7) retrieve information for U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, and (8) get help on using StreamStats. StreamStats was designed for national application, with each state, territory, or group of states responsible for creating unique geospatial datasets and regression equations to compute selected streamflow statistics. With the cooperation of the Oklahoma Department of Transportation, StreamStats has been implemented for Oklahoma and is available at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/. The Oklahoma StreamStats application covers 69 processed hydrologic units and most of the state of Oklahoma. Basin characteristics available for computation include contributing drainage area, contributing drainage area that is unregulated by Natural Resources Conservation Service floodwater retarding structures, mean-annual precipitation at the drainage-basin outlet for the period 1961-1990, 10-85 channel slope (slope between points located at 10 percent and 85 percent of the longest flow-path length upstream from the outlet), and percent impervious area. The Oklahoma StreamStats application interacts with the National Streamflow Statistics database, which contains the peak-flow regression equations in a previously published report. Fourteen peak-flow (flood) frequency statistics are available for computation in the Oklahoma StreamStats application. These statistics include the peak flow at 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for rural, unregulated streams; and the peak flow at 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for rural streams that are regulated by Natural Resources Conservation Service floodwater retarding structures. Basin characteristics and streamflow statistics cannot be computed for locations in playa basins (mostly in the Oklahoma Panhandle) and along main stems of the largest river systems in the state, namely the Arkansas, Canadian, Cimarron, Neosho, Red, and Verdigris Rivers, because parts of the drainage areas extend outside of the processed hydrologic units.

Oklahoma↗

Quality of pesticide data for groundwater analyzed for the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, 2013–18

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Project of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) submitted nearly 1,900 samples collected from groundwater sites across the United States in 2013–18 for analysis of 225 pesticide compounds (pesticides and pesticide degradates, hereafter referred to as “pesticides”) by USGS National Water Quality Laboratory schedule 2437 (S2437). For the associated NAWQA study of pesticide occurrence and concentration in groundwater, and for other studies using pesticide results determined by S2437, it is necessary to assess the ability of reported results to meet data-quality requirements that will allow study objectives to be achieved. This assessment of the quality of S2437 results reported in 2013–18 examined data from field and laboratory quality-control samples, along with third-party performance assessment samples, to estimate bias and variability and to identify their potential sources, with an emphasis on implications for the interpretation of pesticide data for groundwater. Results indicate that measurements produced by the S2437 method for most pesticides have bias and variability that would be considered acceptable for many interpretative studies, which could therefore use the results without qualification or censoring. However, the reported data for a subset of pesticides have the potential for unacceptable contamination bias, high or low recovery bias, or high variability as a consequence of method performance and (or) nonlaboratory factors that could preclude their use for certain common objectives or could necessitate adjustment or qualification to meet those objectives. Based on data for laboratory blanks, censoring of some detections for a subset of pesticides reported by the laboratory in environmental samples might be necessary or desirable to avoid an unacceptably high likelihood of a false-positive result caused by laboratory contamination. The 90-percent upper confidence limit for the 95th percentile of laboratory blank concentration equals or exceeds the minimum reported groundwater concentration in at least 1 water year for 28 pesticides. During at least 1 water year, this upper confidence limit exceeds the maximum laboratory detection limit for 17 pesticides and exceeds the maximum laboratory reporting limit for 3 pesticides (ametryn, atrazine, and diazinon). The level of contamination indicated by this upper confidence limit should not substantially affect the suitability of reported environmental concentrations for any compound for comparison with corresponding human-health benchmarks. Despite being subjected to the same laboratory processes as laboratory blanks, field blanks indicated little evidence of contamination bias. This observation could largely be the consequence of data-reporting practices, which utilize detections in laboratory blanks to censor results in associated field samples (including blanks and environmental samples) when relative concentrations indicate that a result could have a substantial contribution from laboratory contamination. Laboratory censoring appears likely to reduce the risk of false-positive results in environmental samples below the level that laboratory blank results alone would imply. Whereas data available for third-party blind blank samples analyzed in 2018 indicate that only propoxur had any false-positive results, data for pesticides that were not spiked into blind spike samples analyzed in 2013–18 indicate that the false-positive rates for 31 pesticides exceeded 1 percent when considering only detections reported at concentrations greater than the maximum detection limit. Although about half of these pesticides lack substantial supporting evidence of contamination bias based on laboratory blank or field blank detections, indicating that spiking issues or degradation of parent compounds within the spiked samples might be a contributing factor to some false-positive results, these results indicate the need to closely examine detections reported for some pesticides in environmental samples analyzed during a similar period for possible contributions from contamination bias. Data for blind spike samples that were spiked at concentrations above the maximum reporting limit indicate that false-negative rates for eight pesticides exceed 10 percent; substantial low bias could affect results reported for these pesticides in environmental samples analyzed during a similar period. Data for laboratory reagent spikes, which measure recovery of pesticides in blank water, show little evidence for unacceptable recovery bias for S2437 pesticides. However, field matrix spikes, which measure recovery of pesticides in environmental matrices, indicate that degradation and (or) matrix effects could result in moderate to substantial low bias for groundwater results for several pesticides. Low bias could cause some reported concentrations to be categorized as being below a benchmark when the actual concentration in groundwater is greater than the benchmark. Occurrence and concentrations in groundwater could be substantially underrepresented for six pesticides with benchmarks (1H-1,2,4-triazole, asulam, bifenthrin, cis-permethrin, fenbutatin oxide, and naled) that have median recoveries between zero and 50 percent in field matrix spikes. Two compounds (didealkylatrazine and 2-hydroxy-6-ethylamino-4-amino-s-triazine) have median recoveries near or greater than 150 percent in field matrix spikes, indicating a substantial high bias. Plots of data for all spike types show clear changes in the typical recovery with time for some pesticides, which would require further examination for evaluation of temporal trends in environmental concentrations. Data for laboratory reagent spikes indicate that nearly all S2437 pesticides have acceptable variability resulting from random measurement error. Only two compounds (fenbutatin oxide and naled) have F-pseudosigma values greater than 30 percent for recovery, which implies the potential for relatively high variability in reported concentrations and could affect comparison of concentrations to benchmarks and determination of whether concentrations for samples collected at separate locations or times are truly different with a specified level of confidence. Data for third-party blind spike samples show relatively high variability for a greater number of pesticides, although these results likely reflect the influence of degradation and (or) differences in the magnitude and variability of concentrations used for blind spikes relative to laboratory reagent spikes. Detailed analysis of variability using field replicate data is possible for only 12 pesticides on S2437; low variability in analyte detection and concentration is indicated for most of these pesticides in groundwater.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluation of the characteristics, discharge, and water quality of selected springs at Fort Irwin National Training Center, San Bernardino County, California

Eight springs and seeps at Fort Irwin National Training Center were described and categorized by their general characteristics, discharge, geophysical properties, and water quality between 2015 and 2017. The data collected establish a modern (2017) baseline of hydrologic conditions at the springs. Two types of springs were identified: (1) precipitation-fed upland springs (Cave, Desert King, Devouge, No Name, and Panther Springs) and (2) groundwater discharge-fed basin springs (Garlic, Bitter, and Jack Springs). Comparison of electrical resistivity tomography data collected at groundwater basin springs from 2015 to 2017 indicated that spring discharge and connection to the underlying groundwater system is highly focused, although the springs themselves appear diffuse and are spread out over a large area. Spring discharge was consistently less than reported by Thompson (1929), except at Garlic Spring where discharges and vegetation have increased in recent years. Multiple discrete flume and seepage meter measurements taken between October 2015 and April 2016 indicated that discharge changed predictably on diurnal and seasonal timescales in response to evapotranspiration. These preliminary results and the lush vegetation noted at some of the springs, particularly at Bitter, Garlic, and Jack Springs, indicated plant evapotranspiration accounts for a substantial part of the discharge from these springs. The quality of water ranges from fresh in precipitation-fed upland springs (Cave, Desert King, Devouge, and Panther Springs) to slightly saline (Garlic and Jack Springs) and moderately saline (Bitter Spring) in groundwater-fed discharge springs. Nitrate concentrations from water at most of the springs were less than 3 milligrams per liter, except for samples from Devouge and Desert King Springs and one sample from Jack Spring. An analysis of delta nitrogen-15 in nitrate (δ 15 N-NO 3 ) and delta oxygen-18 in nitrate (δ 18 O-NO 3 ) indicates high nitrate concentrations in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level at Jack Spring and Desert King Spring resulting from the dissolution of nitrate-bearing caliche deposits; nitrate concentrations at Devouge Spring are a result of algal growth within the spring, and the source of nitrate concentrations in Garlic Spring are consistent with a treated wastewater origin from Langford Valley-Irwin subbasin upgradient. The source of water in upland springs, indicated by values of delta oxygen-18 (δ 18 O) and delta deuterium (δD) are consistent with recharge from winter precipitation. In groundwater basin springs, values of δ 18 O and δD are consistent with groundwater sampled from nearby wells. Summer monsoonal precipitation appears to contribute little water to spring flow. Most springs contain low levels of tritium and appear to be primarily older (pre-1950s) groundwater. Groundwater basin springs with detectable tritium may result from occasional streamflow in nearby washes. These springs could be susceptible to decreases in flow during extended dry periods when the localized recharge may be reduced due to the loss of focused recharge through nearby washes. Groundwater samples from Garlic and Bitter Springs contained arsenic concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level. Groundwater samples from all springs, except Cave, Desert King, and Devouge Springs, exceeded the State of California maximum contaminant level for fluoride. Garlic Spring was the only sampled spring that contained vanadium concentrations that exceeded the State of California notification level. Only a single water sample from Jack Spring contained uranium at a concentration that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level. Many other constituents of concern were analyzed, including those from anthropogenic sources that may be a result of military activities. Most of these constituents were not detected above their respective reporting levels in spring water; only 15 were detected in spring waters. Diesel and gasoline degradants, many of which also occur naturally, were the most commonly detected compounds. Several other organic compounds, primarily solvents or their degradants, were detected in groundwater basin springs. These constituents, in order of decreasing detection frequency, were carbon disulfide; perchlorate; mercury; acetone; methylnaphthalene; toluene; methyl ethyl ketone; cyanide; and styrene; 4-iso-propyl-toluene; isopropylbenzene; methyl salicylate; and phenol. Except for Garlic Spring, which is affected by discharges of treated wastewater, the quality of water from most springs appears to be relatively unaffected by activities at the Fort Irwin National Training Center.

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Potentiometric Surfaces and Changes in Groundwater Levels in Selected Bedrock Aquifers in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, March-August 2008 and 1988-2008

This report depicts potentiometric surfaces and groundwater- level changes in three aquifers that underlie the seven-county Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Approximately 350 groundwater levels were measured in wells from the three aquifers-the Prairie du Chien-Jordan, the Franconia-Ironton-Galesville, and the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifers-in March and August of 2008. The report presents maps, associated data tables, and 22 geographic information system datasets. The maps presented in this report show the potentiometric surfaces in March and August of 2008 for all three aquifers, groundwater-level changes from March to August 2008 for each aquifer, and revised potentiometric-surface contours for the winter of 1988-89 for the Prairie du Chien-Jordan and the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifers, and the estimated long-term (winter of 1988-89 to March 2008) groundwater-level changes for the Prairie du Chien-Jordan and Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifers. This report documents the methods used to construct the maps and provides a context for the period of the measurements. Although withdrawal demand is increasing in the Twin Cities Metropolitan area, particularly in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer, year-to-year changes in withdrawals can be substantial, and the relation between potentiometric surfaces in the major aquifers and year-to-year withdrawals is not well established. The estimated long-term (19-year) groundwater-level changes for the Prairie du Chien-Jordan and Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifers have not been large based on data and maps produced during this study, despite the large seasonal fluctuations shown by the March and August 2008 synoptic measurements.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Global mineral resource assessment: porphyry copper assessment of Mexico: Chapter A in Global mineral resource assessment

Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about distributions of mineral deposits in the Earth&rsquo;s crust. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources in porphyry copper deposits in Mexico was done as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The purpose of the study was to (1) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000; (2) provide a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects; (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within those permissive tracts; and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. The assessment was conducted using a three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993). Delineation of permissive tracts primarily was based on distributions of mapped igneous rocks related to magmatic arcs that formed in tectonic settings associated with subduction boundary zones. Using a GIS, map units were selected from digital geologic maps based on lithology and age to delineate twelve permissive tracts associated with Jurassic, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), and younger Tertiary magmatic arcs. Stream-sediment geochemistry, mapped alteration, regional aeromagnetic data, and exploration history were considered in conjunction with descriptive deposit models and grade and tonnage models to guide estimates. The 12 permissive tracts delineated for this assessment are grouped by age (Jurassic-Early Cretaceous, Laramide (~90 to 34 Ma), Tertiary) and range in size from ~3,000 to 184,000 km 2 . Probabilistic estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits were made for 10 tracts. A qualitative discussion is included for one Jurassic tract that extends into the U.S. from northern Mexico, and a preliminary outline of the northernmost part of a Tertiary tract that continues well to the south of Mexico is included in summary figures for reference. This assessment estimates that 39 undiscovered deposits contain an arithmetic mean estimate of ~144 million metric tons of copper or more in ten tracts for which probabilistic estimates were made, in addition to 21 porphyry copper deposits that contain identified resources of ~52 million metric tons of copper. Approximately 70 percent of the estimated mean undiscovered copper resources are associated with permissive tracts that contain identified resources; the remaining estimated resources are associated with permissive tracts with no reported porphyry copper resources. In addition to copper, the mean expected values of undiscovered byproduct resources predicted by the simulation are ~4 million metric tons of molybdenum, ~48 thousand metric tons of silver, and 4 thousand metric tons of gold. The probability associated with these arithmetic means is on the order of 30 percent. Median expected amounts of metals predicted by the simulations may be ~50 percent lower than mean estimates, and in some cases, zero. For tracts that contain identified resources, the ratios of undiscovered to identified copper resources indicate that: Jurassic-Early Cretaceous tracts MX-J1 and MX-J2 contain fewer estimated undiscovered copper resources (ratios <1) than identified resources; Laramide tract MX-L1 may contain significantly more copper than has been identified; Laramide tract MX-L2, the tract that contains most of the known deposits in Mexico, including the world-class deposits at Cananea and La Caridad, may contain about as much copper, molybdenum, and silver in undiscovered deposits and more gold than has been identified; Tertiary tracts MX-T1 and MX-T2, where no porphyry copper deposits are known, may contain undiscovered deposits; Tertiary tract MX-T3 may contain about three times more copper than has been identified; and Permissive tracts with no known deposits (MX-J3, MX-J5, MX-L3, MX-T1, MX-T2) contain approximately 30 percent of the total estimated undiscovered copper resources. Most porphyry copper exploration in Mexico focused on the exposed northern parts of the Laramide arc. This assessment suggests that the exposed and shallowly buried (<1 km) parts of the Laramide and Tertiary arcs delineated as permissive tracts are more likely to contain undiscovered deposits than are older (Jurassic-Early Cretaceous) arc segments. Interest in gold has prompted exploration of historical precious metal prospects and small mines in Mexico, some of which may represent high-sulfidation epithermal systems overlying or adjacent to porphyry copper systems. This report includes a brief overview of porphyry copper deposits in Mexico, a description of the assessment process used, a summary of results, and appendixes. Appendixes A through K contain summary information for each tract, as follows: location, the geologic feature assessed, the rationale for tract delineation, tables and descriptions of known deposits and significant prospects, exploration history, model selection, rationale for the estimates, assessment results, and references. The accompanying digital map files (shapefiles) provide permissive tract outlines, assessment results, and data for deposits and prospects in a GIS format (appendix L).

Scientific Investigations Report↗