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Open-source gravity reduction workflows for geothermal resource assessment

Potential-field geophysical data such as gravity can enhance understanding of geothermal resources at all stages of the resource life cycle, including assessment, exploration, development, and monitoring, and at multiple scales, from the reservoir scale to regional scale. However, to make gravity data useful for geothermal resource characterization, several processing steps are required to isolate the effects of density variations in the Earth’s crust to enable the identification of structural features associated with geothermal resources. Although this process is well-established, standard computational implementations for processing gravity data that are FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reproduceable) are still lacking. This paper details ongoing efforts at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a standard set of open-source Python tools for gravity data reduction that align with the FAIR principles. This workflow makes use of existing open-source tools for geophysical data processing with the goal of maximizing opportunities for rapid improvements, interoperability, and adaptability to other types of geophysical data.

Conference Paper

ARCHI: A new R package for automated imputation of regionally correlated hydrologic records

Missing data in hydrological records can limit resource assessment, process understanding, and predictive modeling. Here, we present ARCHI (Automated Regional Correlation Analysis for Hydrologic Record Imputation), a new, open-source software package in R designed to aggregate, impute, cluster, and visualize regionally correlated hydrologic records. ARCHI imputes missing data in “target” records by linear regression using more complete “reference” records as predictors. Automated imputation is implemented using a novel, iterative algorithm that allows each site to be considered a target or reference for regression, growing the pool of complete references with each imputed record until viable gap-filling ceases. Users can limit artifacts from spurious correlations by specifying model-acceptance criteria and applying geospatial, correlation, and group-based filters to control reference selection. ARCHI provides additional functions for visualizing results, clustering records with similar correlation structures, evaluating holdout data, and interactive parameterization with an accessible and intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). This methods brief provides an overview of the ARCHI package, modeling guidelines, and benchmarking on two regional groundwater-level datasets from the Central Valley, CA and Long Island, NY. We evaluate ARCHI alongside widely used multivariate imputation software to highlight and contextualize its computational efficiency, imputation accuracy, and model transparency when applied to large, groundwater-level datasets.

California, New York

Monitoring marine eruptions

Introduction Submarine volcanoes produce much of the same seismicity and eruptive activity as subaerial volcanoes and can pose hazards to society. Although they can be monitored with similar techniques and methods as described in other chapters of this volume, their submerged location brings unique challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges and provides recommendations for monitoring volcanoes fully or partly in marine environments to meet the capabilities described in other chapters of this volume. The United States and its territories host dozens of submarine volcanoes with most (around 60) in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Approximately 20 of the Northern Mariana Islands submarine volcanoes are known to be hydrothermally active, and 10 have confirmed eruptions since the 1950s (for example, Baker and others, 2008; Tepp and others, 2019a). Nine of those volcanoes were considered by the National Volcanic Threat Assessment (Ewert and others, 2018) to have a combination of eruptive type and summit depth that poses a higher risk of hazardous eruptions, although only one was listed as a moderate (level 3) threat. Other notable submarine volcanoes of interest to the United States that have historically erupted are Axial Seamount off the Washington State coast, Kamaʻehuakanaloa in Hawaiʻi, and Vailuluʻu seamount in American Samoa. All of these, however, have a low risk of hazards because of their depth (greater than 600 meters below sea level) and eruptive type and so are not included in the National Volcanic Threat Assessment. In addition to submarine volcanoes, the submerged flanks of island volcanoes can also be a source of hazardous submarine eruptions—for example, the 1877 eruption of Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, in Kealakekua Bay (Wanless and others, 2006). The most notable submarine eruption in recent times was the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai in Tonga, which was one of the largest eruptions on Earth in the past 100 years. It created a massive volcanic plume, unprecedented shock waves, and far-reaching tsunami (Lynett and others, 2022). Other recent submarine eruptions in the Pacific Ocean Basin have produced subaerial plumes that reached aircraft heights (Carey and others, 2014) and large pumice rafts that can affect marine traffic and harbors (for example, Jutzeler and others, 2014; Kornei, 2019). These examples illustrate the potential hazards of major submarine eruptions. Yet, submarine volcanoes are largely unmonitored, and many eruptions occur that are unnoticed or only identified hours or days afterward. Within U.S. territory, submarine volcanoes in the Northern Mariana Islands have been known to produce eruptive activity that can affect society. Reports from fishermen and other marine vessels in the Northern Mariana Islands have noted underwater explosions, sea-surface discoloration, and bubbling water, all of which are known to be signs of submarine volcanic activity. South Sarigan seamount, located about 160 kilometers (km) north of Saipan, erupted in 2010 from greater than 150 meters below the sea surface, resulting in a gas and ash plume that reached more than 11.9 km into the atmosphere (for example, Searcy, 2013; Embley and others, 2014), high enough to affect international air traffic. Precursory and co-eruptive seismicity was detected on the regional Northern Mariana Islands seismic network (Searcy, 2013) and on global monitoring instruments (Green and others, 2013). Monitoring of submarine volcanoes is best accomplished with marine-based instrumentation, which is also useful for monitoring small island volcanoes that may not have the land area necessary for comprehensive subaerial monitoring. The primary marine-based instrumentation used for submarine volcanoes includes ocean-bottom pressure sensors to assess sea-floor deformation, ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) to detect seismicity, and both moored and ocean-bottom hydrophones to detect submarine explosions. Other sensors offer important monitoring data, such as turbidity, temperature, and chemistry of hydrothermal emissions. Marine-based instruments are typically deployed in campaign-style networks with no real-time telemetry owing to cost considerations and technical limitations. However, when necessary, marine instruments can be operated in real time using cables to transmit data to land-based facilities; other technologies for this purpose are in use or in development, such as acoustic transmission from the instrument to a moored buoy (Matsumoto and others, 2016) and a winch-based system with a satellite antenna that is part of the instrument mooring (Matsumoto and others, 2019). Emerging technologies for marine-based monitoring may be considered as part of a future monitoring plan. These technologies include ocean gliders and floats with on-board hydrophones that have been used to record earthquakes and submarine eruptions (for example, Matsumoto and others, 2013; Sukhovich and others, 2015) and fiber-optic cables that have been used as strainmeters to detect earthquakes (for example, Marra and others, 2018; Lindsey and others, 2019). Land-based instruments and satellites can also provide some capability for monitoring submarine volcanoes, but they provide more limited observations than marine-based instrumentation.

Scientific Investigations Report

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, middle Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

Historical, future, and potential stream capture from groundwater pumping in the middle Humboldt River Basin (MHRB), Nevada, is estimated using a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model. The model was developed to estimate (1) stream capture, which is the change in flux between the groundwater system and the Humboldt River and tributaries, and (2) change in streamflow, which is the change in streamflow estimated for the Imlay gage on the Humboldt River (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historical stream capture for water years (WYs) 1961–2015 is estimated using recorded and estimated groundwater pumping during that period. Future (predictive) stream capture was based on historical stresses (WYs 1961–2015) using a scenario that simulated non-mine pumping from WY 2015 at a uniform rate for 100 years into the future. Potential stream capture throughout the middle Humboldt River Basin from groundwater pumping during varying durations of time are presented in a series of capture maps. Maps also are presented that show the potential to capture from groundwater evapotranspiration, as well as the storage changes for pumping duration of 100 years. Estimates of historical stream capture from the mainstem Humboldt River during the early 1960s are less than 400 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) when groundwater withdrawals and pumping rates were relatively small compared to more recent times. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, groundwater withdrawals increased and estimated historical stream capture also increased from about 4,000 acre-ft/yr in the late 1980s and early 1990s to as much as 18,800 acre-feet (acre-ft) in WY 1998. In WY 2015, estimated historical stream capture declined to about 13,000 acre-ft because of decreasing groundwater withdrawals and lower streamflow during the drought of WYs 2012–15, resulting in less stream water available for capture. Stream capture was estimated for 100 years into the future based on WY 2015 non-mine pumping rates and mine-dewatering activity through WY 2015. Stream capture is forecast to increase to about 23,000 acre-ft/yr, and streamflow in the Humboldt River could decrease by as much as 19,000 acre-ft/yr. Pumping for mine-dewatering and the associated discharge of that water affects streamflow in the Humboldt River at Imlay, Nevada (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historically, from WYs 1991 to 2015, streamflow was greater at Imlay gage during active mine-dewatering from mine-water discharge operations and increased by as much as 105,000 acre-ft in WY 1998. The increase was attributed mostly to the discharge of groundwater from mine-related dewatering operations directly into the mainstem Humboldt River or its tributaries, with some of this increase associated with return flows from discharge to rapid infiltration basins. Results indicate that streamflow at Imlay gage is expected to decrease by as much as 1,600 acre-ft/yr 30 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. The streamflow reductions at the Imlay gage are expected to then decrease to around 500 acre-ft/yr, 100 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. Potential capture maps were produced for pumping durations of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Capture map results indicate that areas of greater potential stream capture occur adjacent to the Humboldt River and for upstream tributaries areas north of the Humboldt River.

Nevada

Characterizing Meteor Crater impact melts through geochemistry and textural analysis

The U.S. Geological Survey Astrogeology Science Center houses the Meteor Crater sample collection, an assemblage of over 2,500 meters of cuttings from 161 drill holes into Meteor Crater’s rim, flanks, and ejecta blanket. We have utilized this unique collection to study the composition and spatial distribution of impact-generated materials from within the ejecta blanket. Meteor Crater has historically been known to have generated only a relatively small amount of impact melt compared to other terrestrial craters of similar size. A detailed compositional and textural dataset of impact-derived melts from this impact can therefore be a useful asset in improving our understanding of crater formation, and in particular impact melt formation. We have characterized 42 impact-melt particles from Meteor Crater using a scanning electron microscope and an electron microprobe for textural and compositional analysis. We analyzed samples from six drill holes in the ejecta blanket, situated to the northwest, southeast, south, and southwest of the crater (ejecta northeast of the crater is devoid of impact melts). Impact melts were collected from drill cuttings at various depths within the ejecta blanket, ranging from a few centimeters below the surface down to ~6.5 meters. Backscattered electron (BSE) images were acquired for each analyzed impact-melt particle. To characterize the various textures and phases present in each impact melt, we also took many detailed BSE images. Our geochemical analyses include full spectral profiles using energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry and well-calibrated wavelength dispersive spectrometry for a number of phases, including minerals (olivine, pyroxene, and so on), pristine glass, and metallic inclusions. The full dataset is available in ScienceBase as a data release (Gullikson and others, 2024), accessible at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OGAJ8P . Our goal for this Open-File Report is to provide a summary of this immense dataset, details on data collection, descriptions of the different phases observed within impact-melt particles (both geochemically and texturally), and observable trends.

Arizona

Conceptualization and simulation of groundwater flow and groundwater availability in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers in northeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2017

Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations to determine the maximum annual yield for the State’s groundwater basins. The Boone and Roubidoux aquifers (also known as the Springfield Plateau aquifer and Ozark aquifer, respectively) are bedrock aquifers that extend from northeastern Oklahoma into Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. At present (2024), the Oklahoma Water Resources Board has yet to legally issue orders for the final determination of maximum annual yields for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. To support determination of a maxi­mum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey, in coopera­tion with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, developed a hydrogeologic framework, a conceptual groundwater-flow model, and a calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were simulated by using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates (groundwater withdrawal applied equally over the aquifer), (2) quantify the potential effects of projected groundwater withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the poten­tial effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought. For the Boone aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.10, 0.98, and 0.96 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year scenarios, respectively. For the Roubidoux aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.76, 1.34, and 1.25 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year simulations, respectively. For the 50-year scenarios, stream seepage was minimally affected. Over the 10-year drought scenario, groundwater storage in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers decreased by 660,451 acre-feet (6.7 percent) and 508,472 acre-feet (1.0 per­cent), respectively.

Oklahoma

Ultramafic float rocks at Jezero crater (Mars): Excavation of lower crustal rocks or mantle peridotites by impact cratering?

Based on observation and data from meteorites and in situ scientific missions, experiments as well as models, the Martian mantle is assumed to share some compositional and mineralogical affinity with the terrestrial mantle. However, there might be subtle differences like the Martian mantle being more ferroan. Yet, we do not have any direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock to confirm this assumption. NASA’s Perseverance rover found olivine-rich boulder-sized float rocks on the upper Jezero fan (Mars). These boulders have an ultramafic composition and their mineralogy is dominantly composed of Fo 73±3 olivine with high-Mg orthopyroxene, Cr-rich Ti-Fe oxides and minor plagioclase and high-Ca pyroxene. Microtextural and petrological analysis reveals that these minerals crystallized at equilibrium. In addition, these boulders are different from all the bedrocks analyzed by Perseverance along its traverse which are crustal igneous rocks and sediments. Comparing our data to Martian meteorites and available Mars bulk silicate models (BSM), we discuss that these boulders could represent primitive melts and/or lower crustal material, and we specifically hypothesize that they could be mantle peridotites. We propose that these putative mantle rocks could have been excavated by the succession of impacts from the shallow mantle or lower crust in the Isidis region where Jezero crater is located. These olivine-rich boulders could thereby constitute the first direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

Tracking baseflow supply dynamics using SWOT data from small groundwater-dominated lakes

In situ surface-water monitoring strategies are biased towards larger perennial streams and lakes and are generally not designed to track mechanisms of baseflow supply contributed by the dynamic storage of aquifers. Additionally, small (< 1 km 2 ) groundwater-influenced lakes and wetlands globally have little in situ monitoring infrastructure. We explored the utility of remotely sensed Surface Water Ocean Topography Satellite (SWOT) data, collected from 2023 onward, to characterise the seasonal and multi-year water-level trends of groundwater flow-through kettle lakes distributed across the permeable sediments of eastern Massachusetts, USA. This analysis indicated that water levels for kettle lakes with areas down to approximately 0.05 km 2 are resolvable in the study area. Our examination of 17 kettle lakes found that SWOT water-surface elevation data closely tracked groundwater levels in adjacent monitoring wells where available, including the timing of seasonal patterns (highest levels generally in late spring), although there was some variation between years and there was a substantial lag in the timing of high water levels for a lake located downgradient from a 30-m-thick vadose zone. Furthermore, SWOT-observed water-level increases in kettle lakes tracked with baseflow increases in two adjacent groundwater-dominated streams, as would be expected from increased hydraulic gradients. Unlike spectral remote sensing, SWOT data are generally not affected by cloud cover, resulting in a potential for groundwater-dominated lakes to be sentinels of dynamic storage patterns, including identification of baseflow drought lags, which are currently ill-defined hydrological processes. SWOT monitoring of groundwater-influenced surface waters shows potential for augmenting existing monitoring wells and streamgages as continuous monitors of groundwater levels and baseflow supply in permeable terrain.

Massachusetts

Nitrogen deposition weakens soil carbon control of nitrogen dynamics across the contiguous United States

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is unequally distributed across space and time, with inputs to terrestrial ecosystems impacted by industry regulations and variations in human activity. Soil carbon (C) content normally controls the fraction of mineralized N that is nitrified ( ƒ nitrified ), affecting N bioavailability for plants and microbes. However, it is unknown whether N deposition has modified the relationships among soil C, net N mineralization, and net nitrification. To test whether N deposition alters the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, we collected soils from coniferous and deciduous forests, grasslands, and residential yards in 14 regions across the contiguous United States that vary in N deposition rates. We quantified rates of net nitrification and N mineralization, soil chemistry (soil C, N, and pH), and microbial biomass and function (as beta-glucosidase (BG) and N -acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activity) across these regions. Following expectations, soil C was a driver of ƒ nitrified across regions, whereby increasing soil C resulted in a decline in net nitrification and ƒ nitrified . The ƒ nitrified value increased with lower microbial enzymatic investment in N acquisition (increasing BG:NAG ratio) and lower active microbial biomass, providing some evidence that heterotrophic microbial N demand controls the ammonium pool for nitrifiers. However, higher total N deposition increased ƒ nitrified , including for high soil C sites predicted to have low ƒ nitrified , which decreased the role of soil C as a predictor of ƒ nitrified . Notably, the drop in contemporary atmospheric N deposition rates during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic did not weaken the effect of N deposition on relationships between soil C and ƒ nitrified . Our results suggest that N deposition can disrupt the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, with this change potentially explained by weaker microbial competition for N. Therefore, past N inputs and soil C should be used together to predict N dynamics across terrestrial ecosystems.

contiguous United States

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, May 19–26, 2021

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near nine bridges at eight highway crossings of the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, from May 19 to 26, 2021. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches about 1,640 to 1,840 feet (ft) longitudinally and generally extending laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during low to moderate flood-flow conditions. These surveys provided channel geometry and hydraulic conditions at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a low to moderate flood-flow assessment of the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except those on banks or surrounded by riprap. Occasionally, scour holes were minor and difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples. All the bridge sites in this study were previously surveyed and documented in previous studies. Comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of the current (2021) study do not indicate any consistent correlation between channel-bed elevations and streamflow conditions. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 1.59 ft higher to 0.95 ft lower in 2021 than 2017, which corresponds to a gain of 100,200 cubic yards and a loss of 55,800 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 2.74 ft higher to 3.05 ft lower in 2021 than 2013, which corresponds to a gain of 111,500 cubic yards and a loss of 169,200 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 4.52 ft higher to 1.38 ft lower in 2021 than 2011, which corresponds to a gain of 221,100 cubic yards and a loss of 90,300 cubic yards, respectively. The most substantial overall net gain was 221,100 cubic yards between 2011 and 2021 at structures L0550 and A4497 at Jefferson City (site 20). The large net gain likely results from a combination of the mitigation of the scour holes near pier 4 of both bridges and the substantially lower flow in 2021 than in 2011. Alternatively, the most substantial overall net loss was 169,200 cubic yards between 2013 and 2021 at structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), despite comparable streamflows. Pier size, nose shape, and skew to approach flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed at a given pier. Larger and deeper scour holes were present at piers with wide or blunt noses caused by exposed footings or caissons. When a pier was skewed to primary approach flow, the scour hole was generally deeper and larger than at a similar pier without skew; furthermore, the shape of the scour hole near skewed piers in this study generally was longer and deeper on the side with impinging flow. At structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), the scour hole near pier 5 was difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples, whereas the upstream edge of the footing was visible at pier 4, which likely contributes to the larger scour hole near that pier; the top of the footing may blunt the horseshoe vortex at pier 5, but the exposed front of the footing may exacerbate the vortex at pier 4.

Missouri

Deep lithospheric controls on surface deformation and seismicity around the East Anatolian Fault Zone and A3 Triple Junction

The East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) is a plate-bounding strike-slip fault capable of hosting large earthquakes, as demonstrated by the extremely damaging February 2023 M w 7.8 and M w 7.7 mainshocks of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence. Deformation related to this boundary, part of the Anatolia-Arabia-Africa (A 3 ) Triple Junction, is diffuse, as was shown by part of this earthquake sequence occurring on a northern splay of the EAFZ (the Sürgü-Çardak Fault Zone; SCFZ). Controls on surface deformation are commonly linked to stress in the brittle upper crust, but the complex deformation and seismicity patterns in this region may also reflect deeper processes, such as variations in the location and extent of the strong Arabian Plate lithospheric mantle. Seismic tomography indicates that the Arabian Plate underthrusts Anatolia as far north as the SCFZ and extends as far west as the central Adana Basin, coincident with a zone of relatively deep (>30 km) strike-slip seismogenesis that has produced M w >6 earthquakes. By investigating the relationship between deformation since the inception of the EAFZ (ca. 5 Ma), seismic structure, and seismicity, we infer that the SCFZ will become the future SE boundary of the Anatolian Plate as part of the evolving A 3 Triple Junction.

GSA Today

Ground-motion aleatory-variability models for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

I develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability for crustal and subduction-zone (interface and intraslab) earthquakes for seismic hazards analyses in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) from existing suites of ground-motion models (GMMs) and from ground-motion datasets, including a regional PRVI dataset. The aleatory variability models are parameterized using a partially nonergodic partitioning of standard deviation that consists of independently developed between-event ( ), site-to-site ( ), and event-corrected single-station ( ) standard deviation components. The effects of nonlinear site response on aleatory variability are incorporated through additional terms that modify the standard deviation components. Because one goal of this work is to develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability that synthesize the aleatory variability models from GMMs, I make use of the functional forms of the input GMMs. The PRVI dataset contains a limited number of stations with high-quality site metadata and does not contain records from earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.1, so I choose not to develop the aleatory variability models from the regional dataset alone. Instead, the standard deviation components from regional ground-motion data are evaluated against the components derived from GMMs and from available global datasets, and regionalized standard deviation components are incorporated where there is evidence that regional effects exhibit substantial differences. The resulting logic trees for aleatory variability consist of models of and that are consistent with semiempirical GMMs for active crustal and subduction-zone regimes, and two alternative models of , including one model that exhibits site-to-site variability informed by PRVI data, with values that exceed global models. The aleatory variability models may be considered in future hazards assessments in PRVI to simplify the hazard calculations, to incorporate regional ground-motion variability effects, and to enable direct logic-tree weighs of aleatory variability.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

From collision to subduction: Thermal-kinematic inversions constrain plate boundary structure and dip-slip activity in southwestern New Zealand

Constraints on three-dimensional fault system geometry and kinematics are required to understand both long-term tectonics and contemporary seismic hazard. In many cases, these parameters must be inferred from a combination of different data or analyses. Here, we invert low-temperature thermochronological data to quantitatively parameterize both the crustal-scale geometry and late Cenozoic dip-slip activity of the plate boundary system in southwest New Zealand. We find that the modern transpressive plate boundary system has accommodated the bulk of Australian-Pacific Plate convergence since establishment in the middle Miocene-early Pliocene. Shortening has occurred via (a) dextral-reverse slip on the moderate angle, listric central Alpine Fault décollement, and (b) reverse-slip on either the sharply curved, anti-listric northern Puysegur subduction interface or low-angle offshore thrust fault system that splays from the high-angle southern Alpine Fault at depth. We resolve late Cenozoic shortening rates on these structures that are indistinguishable, and interpret these to reflect the transfer of convergent deformation outboard of the predominantly strike-slip southern Alpine Fault. Our work helps elucidate the transition from strain localized oblique continental collision to strain partitioned subduction. We also provide an estimate of the across-strike width of the central-southern Alpine Fault section boundary at seismogenic depths. This is the first quantitative constraint on the geometry of a structural feature inferred to have arrested several major prehistoric earthquakes. This study furthers understanding of fault structure and dip-slip kinematics along the greatest sources of seismic hazard in and offshore of southwest New Zealand.

South Island

Grand Canyon landslide-dam and paleolake triggered by the Meteor Crater impact at 56 ka

This paper hypothesizes that the Meteor Crater impact in Arizona, USA, 56,000 years ago triggered landslides in Grand Canyon that dammed the Colorado River and formed Nankoweap paleolake. This is compatible with shock and earthquake physics for the impact that infer a M5.4 seismic event, attenuated to an effective magnitude of M3.5 at Grand Canyon. Results that support the hypothesis include radiocarbon dating of driftwood and luminescence dating of associated slack-water lake sediments that are preserved in caves up to 60 m above the modern Colorado River. Radiocarbon ages from two locations, including Stanton’s Cave, date the driftwood as 55.25 ± 2.44 ka (n = 4). Sediments associated with the driftwood gave a luminescence age of 56.00 ± 6.39 ka (n = 2). These six Grand Canyon dates, and three published ages for the Meteor Crater impact, show statistically indistinguishable results that support the hypothesis for a geologically instantaneous series of events with a mean age of 55.60 ± 1.30 ka. This work highlights the value of radiocarbon dating near the limits of the technique, integration of multiple dating methods, and seismic and landslide hazards associated with meteorite impacts in regions of extreme topography like Grand Canyon.

Arizona

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in waters associated with oil and gas development in the Denver Basin

Use of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the petroleum industry could be a cause for concern due to the large volumes of produced water (PW) generated during oil and gas extraction, the reuse of these wastes in water-stressed regions, and adverse health outcomes related to PFAS exposures. However, PW PFAS characterization is nearly absent in the literature, and hydraulic fracturing (HF) chemical disclosures often omit the identities of additives as proprietary. Here we evaluate PFAS in PW samples from three petroleum wells in the Denver Basin during their first year of production. Total concentrations of targeted PFAS (Σ 40 PFAS) were < 35 ng/L in PW samples, with short-chain PFAS like perfluorobutanoic acid persisting throughout the sampled duration. Analysis of freshwater inputs for hydraulic fracturing (Σ 40 PFAS ~ 113 ng/L) and mixed fracture fluid (Σ 40 PFAS ~ 69 ng/L) indicated much of the targeted PFAS content was derived from the input water, and not from HF additives, however samples subjected to oxidation indicated the presence of PFAS precursors that would not be detected by targeted analysis. This study highlights that while PFAS content is low in the studied PWs, the potential for redistribution of PFAS in the environment may be a consideration for reuse applications.

Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming

Preface to the focus section on earthquake-induced ground deformation

Ground failure due to earthquake-induced liquefaction, surface fault rupture, and landsliding has caused substantial damage in the past and continues to pose risks to critical infrastructure in the future. The consideration of ground failure is central to engineering analysis and design, ranging from site-specific engineering assessments of ground failure potential to broader regional-scale ground failure assessments of near-real-time earthquake impacts or longer-term portfolio risk. Uncertainties in all aspects of the problem complicate the prediction of earthquake-induced ground failure, including the identification of hazard-susceptible geomaterials, characterizing their spatial extent and physical properties, spatio-temporal variability in groundwater conditions, characterization of earthquake ground motions, assessing ground failure severity, and linking ground failure severity to infrastructure damage and loss.

Seismological Research Letters

Changes in soil erosion caused by wildfire: A conceptual biogeographic model

Soil erosion rates after wildfire are strongly controlled by intrinsic properties such as topography, weather, climate, soil, and vegetation. These landscape and hydroclimatic properties are important in determining post-fire erosion rates; however, their influence on post-fire erosion and their interaction with the intensity of a wildfire remains uncertain. A key limitation in resolving this uncertainty is the lack of conceptual models and frameworks for organising data related to the geomorphic sensitivity of landscapes to wildfire. Our aim is to develop a framework for consolidating understanding of post-fire erosion in the context of hydroclimatic conditions which contribute to system states, for example soil and vegetation properties, and wildfire regime. The framework is developed around a simple conceptual model where the change in erosion due to wildfire is a product of change in runoff generation and sediment supply, which is strongly related to landscape net primary productivity (NPP). We hypothesised that geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire should vary as a unimodal humped relationship across a gradient of NPP, peaking at an intermediate level. To develop this framework and to test the hypothesis, we first review intrinsic soil and vegetation properties related to the supply and transport of sediment from burned and unburned hillslopes. Net primary productivity is systematically related to these intrinsic properties because it integrates many processes involved in soil and vegetation development. Empirical data indicate a trend in the change in surface runoff generation with NPP after wildfire, peaking at an NPP of approximately 15 Mg C ha −1 y −1 . A simple model of fuel availability and soil heating are correlated with a similar “humped” trend in sediment supply. These results are consistent with our conceptual model, which indicates that sediment supply and runoff contribute towards a distinct peak in wildfire effects on erosion at an intermediate level of NPP. We propose that landscapes of intermediate NPP typically have the highest quantity of fuel available to burn, which cause large changes to the soil surface properties. Landscapes at intermediate NPP also tend to produce intrinsic soil and vegetation properties that promote erosion after wildfire. The interplay between these short and long-term landscape characteristics is strongest at intermediate levels of NPP. Our proposed biogeographic model of geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire was supported by erosion data from burned hillslope and zero-order catchments studies from a range fire-prone landscapes in Australia and North America. Our proposed conceptual model will help identify areas most vulnerable to post-fire erosion changes.

Geomorphology