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Flushing time variability in a short, low-inflow estuary

Flushing time, the time scale for exchange and mixing between embayed and oceanic waters in an estuary, plays an integral role in determining water quality and aquatic ecosystem health. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of flushing times throughout Morro Bay, a short, low-inflow estuary (LIE) on the California coast, using a calibrated and validated hydrodynamic model (Delft3D). Morro Bay has historically supported an extensive eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) habitat, which declined substantially from 139 to 5.4 ha during 2007–2017. Eelgrass decline motivated the current research into the role of changing bed roughness and oceanic drivers (i.e., tide and sea-level rise) on estuarine hydrodynamics and flushing times. We found that tidal variability exerts the strongest control on flushing times compared to other effects, i.e., bed roughness or sea-level rise. Additionally, we found that increasing sea level and decreasing bed roughness (associated with declining seagrass coverage) yielded higher rates of mixing (lower flushing times). We detected a strong correspondence between areas having shorter flushing times (e.g., near the estuary mouth) and areas occupied by resilient eelgrass populations in Morro Bay. Our findings further indicated that flushing times in short LIEs are particularly sensitive to several factors (e.g., bed roughness, sea level) that are susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance and future climate change.

California

Metabarcoding analysis of meiobenthic biodiversity along the Gulf of Mexico continental shelf

This study explores how diverse the meiobenthic (meiofauna and other benthic micro-eukaryotes) community is throughout the United States Gulf of Mexico (GOM) continental shelf. In late 2010 and 2011, 51 sediment samples were collected along GOM from Texas through Florida at a range of depths (40m–496m). An additional six deep-sea slope sediment cores were collected in December 2010 near the Deepwater Horizon platform (1370–1385m and 1865m). Metabarcoding of the 18S hypervariable V9 region was conducted to assess biodiversity. Within continental shelf samples, there was greater meiobenthic diversity off the Eastern GOM coast in comparison to both Central and Western GOM coast locations. The Eastern GOM coast has known sediment differences from Western GOM sites. These sediment differences along with influences from the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current may account for observed variations in GOM meiobenthic diversity.

Gulf of Mexico

Estuarine salinity extremes: Using the Coastal Salinity Index to quantify the role of droughts, floods, hurricanes, and freshwater flow alteration

In the face of accelerating climate change, advancing understanding of how extreme climatic events influence estuarine salinities can help to inform resource management. Extreme salinities driven by droughts, hurricanes, floods, and freshwater flow alterations can lead to ecological transformations in estuarine ecosystems. Here, we applied the Coastal Salinity Index (CSI; Conrads and Darby 2017) to 22 years (1998–2020) of salinity data in a Louisiana estuary (Barataria Estuary, USA) to elucidate the impacts of extreme events on estuarine salinities. The CSI is an index to quantify salinity patterns at a specific location through long-term averages and deviations from historical average conditions. We calculated and compared CSI values for four stations distributed along an estuarine salinity gradient. We identified 10 events between 1998 and 2020 that produced extreme salinities, including two droughts, four hurricanes, three floods, and one freshwater diversion. The droughts of 2000 and 2006 caused surface water salinities to increase substantially throughout the estuary. The effects of hurricanes were highly variable, with some storms leading to elevated salinities throughout the entire estuary (e.g., Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005), whereas other storms led to elevated salinities for some but not all stations (e.g., Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008 or Hurricane Isaac in 2012). The opening of a freshwater river diversion in 2010 contributed to fresher conditions throughout the estuary and appeared to reduce or eliminate the increases in salinity that normally occur during the summer, although these effects were short-lived. Mississippi River floods in 2008, 2011, and 2019 reduced salinities throughout the estuary, but the effects were most pronounced in the lower estuary compared to the upper estuary. Collectively, our results advance understanding of the influence of extreme events on estuarine salinity regimes. Our analyses also highlight the value of the CSI for identifying periods with extreme salinities (i.e., extreme high or low salinities) via calculations that place salinity levels within and across estuaries within a historical context.

Louisiana

ENSO and NAO linkages to interannual salinity variability in north central Gulf of Mexico estuaries through teleconnections with precipitation

Though the importance of Earth's internal climate modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to regional-scale climate variability is well recognized, the degree to which these oscillations are reflected by spatio-temporal salinity variability over interannual timescales in estuaries is less understood. Here an 11-year continuous salinity monitoring dataset spanning 223 stations across Louisiana's coastal wetlands along the northern Gulf of Mexico is examined with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to identify dominant modes of interannual variability in the salinity field. The first EOF mode accounts for 72% of the variance in the salinity field and captures a domain-wide pattern where salinities vary in-phase through space in response to local precipitation anomalies occurring in the vicinity of the study area. This local precipitation anomaly is positively correlated with ENSO (Nino3.4 index), consistent with the El Niño – wet (La Niña – dry) precipitation teleconnection that is prevalent throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The second EOF mode, which accounts for 13% of the variance in the salinity field, is expressed primarily in the marshes across the lower reaches of the Mississippi River deltaic plain (MRDP). EOF2 is anticorrelated with annual Mississippi River discharge anomaly such that salinities in the lower MRDP decrease as discharge increases, pointing to enhanced advection of fresh river plume waters over the shelf into the estuary via estuary-ocean exchange during years of anomalously high river discharge. Mississippi River discharge anomaly is positively correlated with the NAO at a one-year time lag, through a teleconnection with precipitation throughout much of the central region of the Mississippi River drainage basin. Together, these findings indicate that most of the interannual salinity variability across Louisiana's coastal wetlands can be linked to climate variability through teleconnections with precipitation. Incorporating these dynamics into restoration planning, monitoring, and adaptive management efforts may help constrain background environmental variation and better isolate restoration effects.

Louisiana

Two centuries of southwest Iceland annually-resolved marine temperature reconstructed from Arctica islandica shells

Iceland's exposure to major ocean current pathways of the central North Atlantic makes it a useful location for developing long-term proxy records of past marine climate. Such records provide more detailed understanding of the full range of past variability which is necessary to improve predictions of future changes. We constructed a 225-year (1791–2015 CE) master shell growth chronology from 29 shells of Arctica islandica collected at 100 m water depth in southwest Iceland (Faxaflói). The growth chronology provides a robust age model for shell oxygen isotope (δ 18 O shell ) data produced at annual resolution for 251 years (1765–2015 CE). The temperature reconstruction derived from δ 18 O shell shows coherence with May–October local surface temperature records and sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic region, suggesting it is a useful proxy indicator of water temperature variability at 100 m depth within Faxaflói. Field correlations between the shell-based records and gridded sea surface temperature data reveal strong positive correlations between the 1-year lagged shell growth and temperatures within the subpolar gyre post-1972, suggesting a delayed influence of subpolar gyre dynamics on ecological indicators in southwest Iceland in recent decades. However, the shell growth chronology and δ 18 O shell record generally show relatively weak and insignificant correlations with larger region climate indices including the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, and East Atlantic pattern. Therefore the interannual variations in the newly produced shell-based records appear to reflect more local to regional dynamics around southwest Iceland than large-scale modes of climate variability.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Patterns of marsh surface accretion rates along salinity and hydroperiod gradients between active and inactive coastal deltaic floodplains

High subsidence rates are inherent to coastal deltas worldwide, contributing to rapid rates of relative sea-level rise and compromising the sustainability of coastal wetlands. Different parts of river deltas, however, experience accretion or erosion, depending on the coupling between ecological and morphological processes. Wetland expansion occurs in active deltaic coastal basins that are connected to riverine sedimentation. In contrast, wetland degradation occurs in inactive deltaic coastal basins where river engineering strategies associated with flood control restrict river connectivity. Here, we investigated the relative role of inorganic and organic loading to marsh accretion rates spanning fresh to brackish to saline zones between active and inactive coastal deltaic floodplains of the Mississippi River Delta. Marsh surface accretion rates monitored over 36 months using the feldspar marker horizon technique ranged from 1.24 ± 0.35 cm yr −1 in the freshwater marsh to 2.94 ± 0.51 cm yr −1 in the saline marsh in the inactive coastal basin compared to an opposite trend in the active coastal basin with a low vertical accretion rate in the saline site at 1.12 ± 0.17 cm yr −1 and higher accretion values at the freshwater site (2.14 ± 0.49 cm yr −1 ). Our results suggest that saline marshes have high resilience identified by high vertical accretion rates exceeding those of river-dominated freshwater marshes in active deltaic floodplains. Overall, the marsh surface accretionary patterns detected in this study underscores the relative contribution of organic and inorganic sediments to elevation capital across salinity gradients between active and inactive basins in coastal Louisiana with particular interest to river management and restoration strategies. These findings, however, are applicable to coastal deltaic floodplains elsewhere given the repetition geomorphic forcings (e.g., relative contribution of riverine, tidal and wave power) and coastal typologies worldwide.

Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science

Shifts in marsh erosion, migration, and wave exposure over nearly two centuries of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico

Coastal wetlands are economically important ecosystems, but are at risk to erosion from waves, storms, and sea level rise. However, marshes can persist under rising sea level through vertical accretion and migration into adjacent higher-elevation habitats. We measured rates of marsh shoreline change and migration and compared the results for historical and modern periods in a largely undeveloped and marine-dominated estuary within the Mississippi-Alabama coast of the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean shoreline change rate for the modern (post-1957) period was higher than historical rates (pre-1957) at −1.55 ± 0.11 m yr −1 and -0.84 ± 0.07 m yr −1 , respectively. Shoreline change rates were highest in regions where exposure to wind-driven waves increased due to barrier island migration and land loss. Marsh migration (modern 1.25 ± 0.37 m yr −1 and historical 1.01 ± 0.13 m yr −1 ) occurred at similar rates as shoreline erosion except for the highest erosive shorelines, leading to an overall 15% marsh loss. Upland-to-marsh conversion occurred in forested areas and may have been encouraged by changes in management practices. In the Grand Bay estuary, our data show that marsh migration is not occurring at sufficient rates to compensate for marsh loss, resulting in overall loss in marsh habitat. Overall, migration may allow marsh to persist under rising sea levels but can lead to an overall reduction in forested or freshwater habitats if steep slopes or other barriers prevent their migration.

Alabama, Mississippi

Elevated CO2 enables brackish marsh transgression into freshwater forested wetlands while stimulating CH4 emissions

Wetlands are significant carbon (C) sinks and are expected to promote greater C assimilation as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations rise. However, the fate of C with environmental change along fresh-to-oligohaline wetland transitions is not well understood. We established an ex-situ mesocosm experiment to mimic future elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ( e CO 2 , 720 ppm) versus current (380 ppm), and we exposed four co-occurring coastal wetland communities that naturally transgress (i.e., freshwater forest, mixed forest and marsh, marsh, mudflat) to these concentrations for two years. Overall, wetland communities with marsh plants in monoculture and mixed culture maintained high ecosystem C uptake with e CO 2 versus freshwater forested wetlands or mudflats, likely from superior plant species photosynthetic adjustment versus leaf area increases. e CO 2 promoted greater CO 2 uptake by leaves in all communities except mudflats, while promoting CH 4 efflux from whole ecosystems only when marsh plants were present. e CO 2 is projected to stimulate C gain 2.2-fold for forested wetlands and oligohaline marsh and 2.9-fold for forest-marsh mixture through greater CO 2 uptake. However, this comes at a cost of stimulated CH 4 flux by 1.4-to-1.7-fold in mixed and marsh communities versus reduced CH 4 fluxes with e CO 2 by forest and mudflat communities, perhaps through different oxidation pathways. Freshwater forested wetlands limited greenhouse gas emissions compared with transitional habitats, oligohaline marshes, and mudflats as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations increased. Stimulated C uptake in marshes may not offset higher methane emissions from these systems, potentially facilitating greater warming in a future with elevated atmospheric CO 2 .

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Vulnerability of mangrove resources to sea-level rise on Sanibel Island, Florida, USA

Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) is poised to reshape coastal environments over the coming decades, providing a challenge to land managers who need actionable information. Mangroves have an innate ability to keep pace with some SLR but may drown under the higher rates projected by the end of the century. Understanding local mangrove resilience to SLR requires understanding of historic and contemporary accretion rates, productivity, and forest elevations relative to tidal inundation. We applied the WARMER3 modeling framework to assess future mangrove resilience to SLR and blue carbon storage across the “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island in southwest Florida, USA. We found that Sanibel mangroves are sensitive to the SLR scenario, with projected losses ranging from 19 to 70% by 2100. Across SLR scenarios, projected areal extent was similar until about 2035 and then diverge, coincident with projected acceleration in the rate of SLR. Threshold analysis indicates found that Sanibel mangroves are likely to submerge when rates exceed 6.5 mm yr −1 . Currently, the mangrove forest of our study domain holds an estimated 214,000 Mg of carbon but is likely to decrease as mangroves convert to open water in the second half of this century. For “Ding” Darling, these site-specific projections identify when losses in mangrove resources are most likely, providing a basis to prioritize local management actions and conservation resources.

Florida

Changes in suspended sediment concentration along tidal rivers of the Chesapeake Bay: The tidal freshwater “sediment shadow”

Transport of terrigenic sediment from nontidal watersheds into estuaries has important impacts on coastal habitat quality, pollutant transport, and resilience to sea-level rise. However, relatively little is known about changes in suspended sediment as nontidal rivers encounter tide, transition into tidal rivers through the tidal freshwater zone (TFZ), and enter saline portions of estuaries. The goal of this paper is to identify spatial and temporal patterns in suspended sediment concentration (SS) changes across tidal and salinity gradients over multiple tidal rivers, using a robust monitoring long-term dataset from the Chesapeake Bay. The multiple TFZs in the Chesapeake Bay consistently have a “sediment shadow” shown by a local spatial minimum in SS compared to upstream nontidal and downgradient oligohaline river reaches. Similarly, freshwater inputs from nontidal rivers have diminishing influence on tidal SS temporal dynamics with distance downstream from the head-of-tide. Therefore, little of the contemporary watershed sediment load is likely transported past the TFZ except during extreme floods when some sediment may be delivered to saline portions of the estuary. Tidal freshwater and brackish portions of the estuary have spatially variable trends in SS over time, both increases and decreases. However, the more saline downstream ends of tidal rivers and the mainstem of the Chesapeake Bay have had a consistent average 25% decline in SS over the past decades. In summary, the presence of “sediment shadows” suggests watershed loads of sediment are currently mostly not transported through the TFZ into the saline estuary, and likely generate sediment deficits for tidal freshwater wetlands.

Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania

Waves, watersheds, and sediment in a coral reef embayment: Towards parsimonious models of accumulation and composition

High sedimentation rates can damage coral reef ecosystems. Sedimentation rates are controlled by both sediment loads from watersheds and resuspension by waves and associated circulation patterns, but the outcomes are system specific and difficult to predict. The percent terrigenous (non-organic and non-carbonaceous) material in sediment is also often used as an indicator of watershed influence, but its dynamics are poorly understood. Sediment accumulation rates, particle size, and percent terrigenous were monitored quasi-monthly for one year (March 2014-April 2015) at nine sites in a coral reef-fringed embayment in American Samoa, where an aggregate quarry had increased sediment loads to the coast but mitigation reduced loads during the monitored period. Gross and net sediment accumulation rates were measured using sediment traps and SedPods (pods), respectively. Gross accumulation rates exceeded thresholds for impacts on coral health during at least one collection period at most sites, with more exceedances on the northern reef where water residence times and sediment availability are higher and corals show signs of sediment stress. Percent terrigenous of coarse sediment was higher in the traps and pods compared with the surrounding benthic sediment, indicating that some of the terrigenous sediment was advected through the bay without accumulating on the reef. The 95th percentile of hourly wave energy density ( E 95 ) taken from a global wave model (WaveWatch 3) was the best predictor of gross accumulation rates of both total and carbonate sediment in a log-log regression at most ( n = 6) sites ( R 2 range 0.72-0.92), indicating a strong role of resuspension of benthic sediment. Gross accumulation rates of terrigenous sediment were not correlated with E 95 and only correlated with SSY at the site nearest the stream mouth, indicating that most terrigenous sediment was not from resuspended benthic material but rather from a consistent watershed source. Percent terrigenous decreased with increasing wave energy due to high accumulation rates of carbonates during periods of high wave energy. Detection of the impact of sediment mitigation at the quarry on sediment accumulation was complicated by low wave energy in the period following mitigation. The use of gross accumulation rates and percent terrigenous as indicators of the magnitude and sources of sediment accumulation over time needs to account for wave-induced resuspension, which can be modelled with a simple power function using inputs from a global wave model.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

The use of an analog sclerometer to estimate strength of hard substrates supporting coastal communities

In the marine environment, substrate differences such as ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ bottom result in different ecological communities. It is unclear, however, whether strength of hard bottom affects organism presence. To date, a limitation of many studies on organism-substrate interactions is the inability to measure rock strength in situ for marine substrates. Previous efforts involved measurements of rock compressive strength, which relates to the hardness of the interior rock and does not necessarily reflect how organisms interact with the rock surface. Here we present a method for estimating the surface strength, or friability, of marine rocks in the field. We used an analog sclerometer to scratch the surface of marine rocks at predetermined force levels across 38 intertidal sites. Friability ranged over two orders of magnitude (0.13–12.10 MPa) with significant differences among rock types: mudstone (mean = 0.56 MPa) had the lowest resistance, while granitic rocks (mean = 2.14 MPa) had the highest, consistent with theoretical expectations. Friability measurements indicated expected compressive rock strengths across rock types and captured differences within types (i.e., surface weathering). The sclerometer effectively measured surface rock strength on soft rocks, such as mudstone, and hard rocks, like granite. The ability to measure the strength of surfaces represents a new tool for benthic marine research, enabling investigations of substrate-organism interactions in future studies.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Benthic foraminifers from the continental shelf and slope of the Gulf of Mexico: An indicator of shelf hypoxia

Benthic foraminifers from 74 core-top sediment samples collected primarily from the continental shelf of the Gulf of Mexico were analyzed to determine a microfaunal indicator for shelf hypoxia to be used in future paleoenvironmental studies. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) of 93 species recognized factors/clusters that were similar to previous investigations of the benthic foraminifers, except that both analyses also identified PCA6/CA6 in the area where hypoxic conditions have been observed. Three low-oxygen-tolerant species, Pseudononion atlanticum, Epistominella vitrea, and Buliminella morgani have high factor loadings in PCA6. The cumulative percentage of three species is defined as the PEB (PEB, Pseudononion, Epistominella, Buliminella) index. The highest PEB values observed in the 74 surface sediment samples occur in the zone of recognized hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf. Values of the PEB index are also elevated along the southern Texas coastline, suggesting that this area may experience periodic hypoxia as well. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Nitrogen and phosphorus transport between Fourleague Bay, LA, and the Gulf of Mexico: The role of winter cold fronts and Atchafalaya River discharge

Nutrient fluxes were measured between Fourleague Bay, a shallow Louisiana estuary, and the Gulf of Mexico every 3 h between February 1 and April 30, 1994 to determine how high velocity winds associated with cold fronts and peak Atchafalaya River discharge influenced transport. Net water fluxes were ebb-dominated throughout the study because of wind forcing and high volumes of water entering the northern Bay from the Atchafalaya River. Flushing time of the Bay averaged <8 days; however, more rapid flushing occurred in response to northerly winds with approximately 56% of the volume of the Bay exported to the Gulf in 1 day during the strongest flushing event. Higher nitrate + nitrite (NO2+ NO3), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were indicative of Atchafalaya River input and fluxes were greater when influenced by high velocity northerly winds associated with frontal passage. Net exports of NO2 + NO3, TN, and TP were 43.5, 98.5, and 13.6 g s-1, respectively, for the 89-day study. An average of 10.6 g s-1 of ammonium (NH4) was exported to the Gulf over the study; however, concentrations were lower when associated with riverine influence and wind-driven exports suggesting the importance of biological processes. Phosphate (PO4) fluxes were nearly balanced over the study with fairly stable concentrations indicating a well-buffered system. The results indicate that the high energy subsidy provided by natural pulsing events such as atmospheric cold fronts and seasonal river discharge are efficient mechanisms of nutrient delivery to adjacent wetlands and nearshore coastal ecosystems and are important in maintaining coastal sustainability. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

The fate of wastewater-derived nitrate in the subsurface of the Florida Keys: Key Colony Beach, Florida

Shallow injection is the predominant mode of wastewater disposal for most tourist-oriented facilities and some residential communities in the US Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Concern has been expressed that wastewater nutrients may be escaping from the saline groundwater system into canals and surrounding coastal waters and perhaps to the reef tract 10 km offshore, promoting unwanted algal growth and degradation of water quality. We performed a field study of the fate of wastewater-derived nitrate in the subsurface of a Florida Keys residential community (Key Colony Beach, FL) that uses this disposal method, analyzing samples from 21 monitoring wells and two canal sites. The results indicate that wastewater injection at 18–27 m depth into saline groundwater creates a large buoyant plume that flows quickly (within days) upward to a confining layer 6 m below the surface, and then in a fast flow path toward a canal 200 m to the east within a period of weeks to months. Low-salinity groundwaters along the fast flow path have nitrate concentrations that are not significantly reduced from that of the injected wastewaters (ranging from 400 to 600 μmol kg −1 ). Portions of the low-salinity plume off the main axis of flow have relatively long residence times (>2 months) and have had their nitrate concentrations strongly reduced by a combination of mixing and denitrification. These waters have dissolved N 2 concentrations up to 1.6 times air-saturation values with δ 15 N[N 2 ]=0.5-5‰, δ 15 N[NO 3 - ]=16-26‰, and calculated isotope fractionation factors of about −12±4‰, consistent with denitrification as the predominant nitrate reduction reaction. Estimated rates of denitrification of wastewater in the aquifer are of the order of 4 μmol kg -1 N day -1 or 0.008 day -1 . The data indicate that denitrification reduces the nitrate load of the injected wastewater substantially, but not completely, before it discharges to nearby canals.

Florida

Effect of rising sea level on runoff and groundwater discharge to coastal ecosystems

Rising sea level can cause an increase in surface runoff from coastal areas by raising the watertable and thus increasing the incidence of saturated soil conditions in low-lying areas. As surface runoff increases, less rainfall will infiltrate into the ground and groundwater discharge to the coast will decrease. The link between sea level rise and runoff is critically dependent on the sensitivity of surface runoff to changes in the elevation of the watertable. A significant relation between the two is demonstrated for a coastal watershed on Cape Cod, where it is estimated that a 10 cm rise in the watertable will increase surface runoff by 70% and decrease groundwater discharge by 20%. Effects on near-shore ecosystems include changes in nutrient fluxes and in the salinity of the sediments.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Temporal and spatial variations in suspended matter in continental shelf and slope waters off the north-eastern United States

Seston in waters of Georges Bank originates primarily from biological production and from resuspension of bottom sediments. The concentrations of suspended matter observed on the central shoals are more influenced by storms than by seasonal changes. Winter storms produce highest concentrations of non-combustible material throughout the water column, and summer storms appear to increase biological production by mixing additional nutrients into the photic zone. On the south-east flank of the bank, in water depths between 80 and 200 in, the concentrations of total suspended matter and non-combustible material show little variation compared with the central shoals, and storm effects are far less noticeable. Highest concentrations (>15 mg 1 −1 ) of suspended matter occur in bottom waters south of Nantucket Island after winter storms and appear to be primarily resuspended bottom sediment. Resuspended sediment is also common in near-bottom waters of the south-western Gulf of Maine, and occasionally near the intersection of the shelf/slope water mass front and the bottom. Seasonal variations were observed in the distribution and species composition of phytoplankton. Coccoliths are predominant on the central bank during the winter, but during the spring and summer they are concentrated on the eastern flank at deeper depths.

Georges Bank

Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species ( Skeletonema costatum ) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems—a deep (10–20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process—establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies.

California