USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Environmental Evidence”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Climate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin

Species that are primarily seral may form stable (self-sustaining) communities under certain disturbance regimes or environmental conditions, yet such populations may also be particularly vulnerable to ecological change. Aspen (Populus spp.) are generally considered seral throughout the northern hemisphere, including P. tremuloides, the most widely distributed tree species in North America. Recent declines in aspen populations have occurred, especially along drought-sensitive margins of its range and where fire exclusion and herbivory have promoted community transition. However, aspen also forms stable stands, and examination of the mechanisms that influence persistence can offer conservation insights, especially where populations are vulnerable to changing climate or altered disturbance dynamics. We sampled tree age and stand characteristics of isolated aspen forests in the arid Great Basin (USA) to determine if: (1) aspen communities are more fire-dependent and seral or fire-independent and stable; (2) ungulate browsing inhibits aspen stability; and (3) temporal patterns of vegetative reproduction (i.e., ramet establishment or “suckering”) are correlated with climate. Aspen size and age class densities strongly fit negative exponential distributions, whether grouped geographically or by functional type, suggesting landscape-scale persistence. Continuous age distributions and high proportions of recruitment-sized to overstory trees suggest stability at stand-scales, with exceptions including stands with higher browsing pressure. Few stands had evidence of fire, and relationships between dead tree size and variability in live tree size suggest a lack of fire-dependency. Several five-year averaged climate variables and one sea surface temperature index were correlated with aspen ramet establishment densities over time, with strongest relationships occurring ~5 years prior to establishment year, often followed by inverse relationships ~1 year after. Indeed, aspen establishment density for a recent 41-year period was reliably reconstructed using antecedent climate conditions derived from a single drought index. Temporally synchronized aspen ramet establishment across the study region may be due to climate-driven storage of nonstructural carbohydrate reserves in clonal root systems later used for regeneration. Complex regeneration dynamics of these self-sustaining aspen stands, especially sensitivity to climate variability, suggest they may serve as harbingers of ecological change in the arid Great Basin and in other aspen populations near their range margin.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2010

The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2012

Using geochemistry to identify the source of groundwater to Montezuma Well, a natural spring in Central Arizona, USA: Part 2

Montezuma Well is a unique natural spring located in a sinkhole surrounded by travertine. Montezuma Well is managed by the National Park Service, and groundwater development in the area is a potential threat to the water source for Montezuma Well. This research was undertaken to better understand the sources of groundwater to Montezuma Well. Strontium isotopes ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) indicate that groundwater in the recharge area has flowed through surficial basalts with subsequent contact with the underlying Permian aged sandstones and the deeper, karstic, Mississippian Redwall Limestone. The distinctive geochemistry in Montezuma Well and nearby Soda Springs (higher concentrations of alkalinity, As, B, Cl, and Li) is coincident with added carbon dioxide and mantle-sourced He. The geochemistry and isotopic data from Montezuma Well and Soda Springs allow for the separation of groundwater samples into four categories: (1) upgradient, (2) deep groundwater with carbon dioxide, (3) shallow Verde Formation, and (4) mixing zone. δ 18 O and δD values, along with noble gas recharge elevation data, indicate that the higher elevation areas to the north and east of Montezuma Well are the groundwater recharge zones for Montezuma Well and most of the groundwater in this portion of the Verde Valley. Adjusted groundwater age dating using likely 14 C and δ 13 C sources indicate an age for Montezuma Well and Soda Springs groundwaters at 5,400–13,300 years, while shallow groundwater in the Verde Formation appears to be older (18,900). Based on water chemistry and isotopic evidence, groundwater flow to Montezuma Well is consistent with a hydrogeologic framework that indicates groundwater flow by (1) recharge in higher elevation basalts to the north and east of Montezuma Well, (2) movement through the upgradient Permian and Mississippian units, especially the Redwall Limestone, and (3) contact with a basalt dike/fracture system that provides a mechanism for groundwater to flow to the surface. While the exact nature of the groundwater flow connections is still uncertain, the available data indicate that flow to Montezuma Well may be more susceptible to future groundwater development in the Redwall Limestone than from any other geologic unit. Overall, the shallow groundwater in the surrounding Verde Formation appears to be largely disconnected from deeper groundwater flowing to Montezuma Well.

Arizona↗
USGS2011

Far from superficial: microbial diversity associated with the skin and mucus of fish

During horizontal or water-borne infection involving an obligate pathogen (e.g. – Aeromonas salmonicida, cause of furunculosis), the pathogen interacted with and influenced the microbial diversity of the dermal mucus of fish. Prior to infection, the prevalent bacterial flora cultured from juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) included Pseudomonas fluorescens, Comomonas terrigenia, Acinetobacter sp., Moraxella sp., Pseudomonas dimunita, Alcaligenes denitrificans, Pseudomonas pseudoalcaligenes, and Pseudomonas alcaligenes, Serratia liquefaciens, Aeromonas hydrophila, other motile Aeromonas spp., and Corynebacterium aquaticum. After A. salmonicida was initially detected in this population as an external mucus infection, Acinetobacter sp., Moraxella sp., C. terrigenia, P. fluorescens, and P. dimunita, Staphylococcus sp., and A. hydrophila, were also present in appreciable numbers. Within several weeks, however, the A. salmonicida infection amplified and composed 78% of the total flora in the mucus. Only P. dimunita (4%). P. fluorescens (2%), and C. terrigenia (1%) were cultured at that time and more than a third of these fish showed evidence of a systemic A. salmonicida infection within their kidneys. Eight weeks after oral oxytetracycline treatments, A. salmonicida was no longer isolated from the mucus or kidneys of any fish and glucose inert or other oxidative microbes (e.g., P. fluorescens, C. terrigenia, Acinetobacter sp., Moraxella sp.) were beginning to repopulate the external surface of the salmon in increasing frequency. Still present and composing fairly large percentages of the total flora were A. hydrophila, as well as Enterobacter sp., and P. putrefaciens. A normal microbial diversity was re-established as the fish recovered. In another investigation, reduced biological diversity was noted in the dermal mucus among smallmouth bass that were sampled from the Jackson River (Covington, VA). In these fish, A. hydrophila and P. putrefaciens were the two predominant microorganisms composing 49.5% and 31.2% of the total bacterial flora, despite the absence of systemic infection or any other clinical signs of disease. In another instance, P. fluorescens was the sole bacterium associated with the surface of Atlantic salmon eggs regardless of their viability at the eyed stage of development. Collectively, these results indicate that the kinetics and distributions of the surface bacterial flora on aquatic organisms is affected by numerous factors including pathogen invasion, environmental conditions, and fish culture practices.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

A riverscape approach reveals downstream propagation of stream thermal responses to riparian thinning at multiple scales

Hydrological connectivity in river networks influences their response to environmental changes as local effects may extend downstream via flowing water. For example, localized changes in riparian forest conditions can affect stream temperatures, and these effects may propagate downstream. However, studies evaluating stream temperature responses to riparian forest management have not considered cumulative effects across entire watersheds. Improved understanding at these scales is needed because land managers are increasingly required to consider broad-scale consequences of their actions. To address this question, we deployed a high-density network of sensors across watersheds to examine stream temperature responses to experimental thinning of riparian forests. A riverscape approach that combined high-resolution data throughout the study watersheds made it possible to examine local and downstream patterns of stream temperature at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We found that local responses of temperature to thinning varied widely depending on the intensity of thinning treatments. Downstream propagation of local responses extended from 100 m to over 1000 m and depended on the magnitude of the local response. We characterized these responses as a series of waveforms. In the watersheds with more intensive thinning, thermal responses occurred most often as an extended pulse where downstream increases in temperature attenuated gradually at variable distances. Although we observed no evidence of cumulative effects associated with thinning at the downstream extent of stream networks, effects emerged where thinning treatments were closely spaced (<400 m apart) and local warming did not dissipate with downstream distance. In a watershed with less intensive thinning, there was either no response or a localized pulse with no downstream propagation. Collectively, these patterns suggest that riparian forest thinning influenced downstream thermal conditions to varying extents depending on the intensity, scale, and spatial proximity of treatments. We found that a multiscale riverscape approach and conceptual framework based on contrasting waveforms provided a foundation for understanding the cumulative watershed effects of riparian thinning. The approach developed here can be adapted more broadly when evaluating downstream propagation of local changes in river networks and has direct implications for guiding restoration in riparian ecosystems.

California↗
USGS2023

Coproduction and modeling spatial contact networks prevent bias about infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus transmission for Snake River Basin salmonids

Much remains unknown about variation in pathogen transmission across the geographic range of a free-ranging fish or animal species and about the influence of movement (associated with husbandry practices or animal behavior) on pathogen transmission. Salmonid hatcheries are an ideal system in which to study these processes. Salmonid hatcheries are managed for endangered species recovery, supplementation of threatened or at-risk fish stocks, support of fisheries, and ecosystem stability. Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is a rhabdovirus of significant concern to salmon aquaculture. Landscape IHNV transmission dynamics previously had been estimated only for salmonid hatcheries in the Lower Columbia River Basin (LCRB). The objectives of this study were to estimate IHNV transmission dynamics in a unique geographic region, the Snake River Basin (SRB), and to quantitatively estimate the effect of model coproduction on inference because previous assessments of coproduction have been qualitative. In contrast to the LCRB, the SRB has hatchery complexes consisting of a main hatchery and ≥1 satellite facility. Knowledge about hatchery complexes was held by a subset of project researchers but would not have been available to project modelers without coproduction. Project modelers generated and tested multiple versions of Bayesian susceptible-exposedinfected models to realistically represent the SRB and estimate the effect of coproduction. Models estimated the frequency of transmission routes, route-specific infection probabilities, and infection probabilities for combinations of salmonid hosts and IHNV lineages. Model results indicated that in the SRB, avoiding exposure to IHNV-positive adult salmonids is the most important action to prevent juvenile infections. Migrating adult salmonids exposed juvenile cohort-sites most frequently, and the infection probability was greatest following exposure to migrating adults. Without coproduction, the frequency of exposure by migrating adults would have been overestimated by 70 cohort-sites, and the infection probability following exposure to migrating adults would have been underestimated by∼0.09. The coproduced model had less uncertainty in the infection probability if no transmission route could be identified (Bayesian credible interval (BCI) width = 0.12) compared to the model without coproduction (BCI width = 0.34). Evidence for virus lineage MD specialization on steelhead and rainbow trout (both Oncorhynchus mykiss) was apparent without model coproduction. In the SRB, we found a greater probability of virus lineage UC infection in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) compared to in O. mykiss, whereas in the LCRB, UC more clearly exhibited a generalist approach. Coproduction influenced estimates that depended on transmission routes, which operated differently at main hatcheries and satellite sites within hatchery complexes. Hatchery complexes are found outside of the SRB and are not specific to salmonid hatcheries alone. There is great potential for coproduction and modeling spatial contact networks to advance understanding about infectious disease transmission in complex production systems and surrounding free-ranging animal populations.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2016

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise F ST ) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and F ST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and F ST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes ( N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

Columbia River Basin↗
USGS2024

Geological context and significance of the clay-sulfate transition region in Mount Sharp, Gale crater, Mars: An integrated assessment based on orbiter and rover data

On Mars, phyllosilicate (“clay”) minerals are often associated with older terrains, and sulfate minerals are associated with younger terrains, and this dichotomy is taken as evidence that Mars’ surface dried up over time. Therefore, in situ investigation of the Mount Sharp strata in Gale crater, which record a shift from dominantly clay-bearing to sulfate-bearing minerals, as seen in visible−near-infrared orbital reflectance spectra, is a key science objective for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover mission. Here, we present regional (orbiter-based) and in situ (rover-based) evidence for a low-angle erosional unconformity that separates the lacustrine and marginal lacustrine deposits of the Carolyn Shoemaker formation from the dominantly eolian deposits of the lower Mirador formation within the orbitally defined clay-sulfate transition region. The up-section record of wetter (Carolyn Shoemaker formation) to drier (lower Mirador formation) depositional conditions is accompanied by distinct changes in diagenesis. Clay minerals occur preferentially within the Carolyn Shoemaker formation and are absent within the lower members of the Mirador formation. At and above the proposed unconformity, strata are characterized by an increase in diagenetic nodules enriched in X-ray amorphous Mg-sulfate. Early clay formation in the Carolyn Shoemaker formation may have created a hydraulic barrier such that later migrating magnesium- and sulfur-rich fluids accumulated preferentially within the lower members of the Mirador formation. The proposed unconformity may have also acted as a fluid conduit to further promote Mg-sulfate nodule formation at the Carolyn Shoemaker−Mirador formation boundary. These results confirm an association of the clay-sulfate transition with the drying of depositional environments, but they also suggest that at least some orbital sulfate signatures within the region are not time-congruent with the environmental signals extracted from primary sedimentology. Our findings highlight that complex interactions among primary depositional environment, erosion, and diagenesis contribute to the transition in clay-sulfate orbital signatures observed in the stratigraphy of Mount Sharp.

GSA Bulletin↗
USGS2018

Rating stability, and frequency and magnitude of shifts, for streamgages in Virginia through water year 2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, has quantified several measures of rating stability and the frequency and magnitude of changes to ratings through time for 174 real-time continuous streamgages active in Virginia as of September 30, 2013. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted through all available flow measurements for all the streamgages in Virginia’s real-time network as of September 30, 2013, with at least 20 flow measurements with positive flow values. For each measurement with a positive flow value, residuals from the GAM curve were calculated. Time series of these residuals were used to identify major changes to the control (the stream feature or features which control the relation between stage and flow); the measurements in the periods of equilibrium between major changes were assigned to rating families. Of the 127 rating families that were identified as being distinct at sites, documented explanations were found for 67 of them. The most common reasons for the control to change enough to warrant a new rating family are moving the streamgage (28 times), floods (26 times), and construction activities (13 times). Provisional flow data from any streamgage that has recently experienced a major flood, regardless of historical stability, are more uncertain than usual until post-flood evidence emerges that the rating is stable, or if the rating has changed, until it is known to be well defined. A direct comparison between provisional flow data (those data originally displayed on the web in near-real time) and flow data approved for publication following subsequent flow measurements and review could not be made because provisional flow data have not been archived. As a substitute, alternative flow (AltFlow) tables were constructed for periods with complete records of shifts and ratings. Alternate flows consist of $Q$ same , the flow value from the shifted rating table used to compute the daily flow value at the time of the most recent flow measurement that corresponds to the gage height of each day’s daily flow value, and $Q$ prev , the flow value from the shifted rating table in effect at the time of the previous flow measurement that corresponds to the gage height of each day’s daily flow value. Several metrics that summarize AltFlow tables were computed and evaluated; particular importance was given to how well the metrics agreed with the descriptive stability class developed from interviews with hydrographers. Of these stability metrics, at least four were determined to be meaningful and to represent different aspects of control stability that might be relevant to water managers: total root mean square error between log-transformed $Q$ prev and $Q$ same , percentage of days when the difference between $Q$ prev and $Q$ same is greater than (>) $Q$ same , the sum of absolute AltFlow error divided by total flow, and percentage of days with zero difference between $Q$ prev and $Q$ same . Three other meaningful metrics of control stability or provisional flow-data quality were computed: R 2 (coefficient of determination) of GAMs from the flow measurements, percentage of total estimated days, and percentage of estimated days in the winter. Correlations among metrics varied, indicating they responded to different aspects of control stability. Relations among the various stability metrics and quantitative basin and site characteristics were weak. Although quantitative relations between stability metrics and basin and site characteristics were all weak, some common patterns still emerged. Controls and ratings on large streams [>500-square mile (mi 2 ) drainage area] and at high elevations (>1,000 feet) were more likely to be stable than controls and ratings on small streams (less than (<) 100-mi 2 drainage area) and at low elevations (<500 feet). There were exceptions to both generalizations, and streamgages that were intermediate in both characteristics varied widely in stability. Typical timing of record computation changed during water years 1991–2013. From 1991 through 2001, the median number of days between the start date of the shift and the date it was created fluctuated between about 240 and about 300 days and decreased by about 4 months from 2001 to 2002. Only in 2012 and 2013 did one-half of the shifts have a delay of about 60 days between start date and final modification.

Virginia↗
USGS2017

Fidelity of the Sr/Ca proxy in recording ocean temperature in the western Atlantic coral Siderastrea siderea

Massive corals provide a useful archive of environmental variability, but careful testing of geochemical proxies in corals is necessary to validate the relationship between each proxy and environmental parameter throughout the full range of conditions experienced by the recording organisms. Here we use samples from a coral-growth study to test the hypothesis that Sr/Ca in the coral Siderastrea siderea accurately records sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropics (Florida, USA) along 350 km of reef tract. We test calcification rate, measured via buoyant weight, and linear extension (LE) rate, estimated with Alizarin Red-S staining, as predictors of variance in the Sr/Ca records of 39 individual S. siderea corals grown at four outer-reef locations next to in-situ temperature loggers during two, year-long periods. We found that corals with calcification rates < 1.7 mg cm −2 d −1 or < 1.7 mm yr −1 LE returned spuriously high Sr/Ca values, leading to a cold-bias in Sr/Ca-based SST estimates. The threshold-type response curves suggest that extension rate can be used as a quality-control indicator during sample and drill-path selection when using long cores for SST paleoreconstruction. For our corals that passed this quality control step, the Sr/Ca-SST proxy performed well in estimating mean annual temperature across three sites spanning 350 km of the Florida reef tract. However, there was some evidence that extreme temperature stress in 2010 (cold snap) and 2011 (SST above coral-bleaching threshold) may have caused the corals not to record the temperature extremes. Known stress events could be avoided during modern calibrations of paleoproxies.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗
USGS2017

Sulfolobus islandicus meta-populations in Yellowstone National Park hot springs

Abiotic and biotic forces shape the structure and evolution of microbial populations. We investigated forces that shape the spatial and temporal population structure of Sulfolobus islandicus by comparing geochemical and molecular analysis from seven hot springs in five regions sampled over 3 years in Yellowstone National Park. Through deep amplicon sequencing, we uncovered 148 unique alleles at two loci whose relative frequency provides clear evidence for independent populations in different hot springs. Although geography controls regional geochemical composition and population differentiation, temporal changes in population were not explained by corresponding variation in geochemistry. The data suggest that the influence of extinction, bottleneck events and/or selective sweeps within a spring and low migration between springs shape these populations. We suggest that hydrologic events such as storm events and surface snowmelt runoff destabilize smaller hot spring environments with smaller populations and result in high variation in the S. islandicus population over time. Therefore, physical abiotic features such as hot spring size and position in the landscape are important factors shaping the stability and diversity of the S. islandicus meta-population within Yellowstone National Park.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2001

A spatially referenced regression model (SPARROW) for suspended sediment in streams of the Conterminous U.S.

Suspended sediment has long been recognized as an important contaminant affecting water resources. Besides its direct role in determining water clarity, bridge scour and reservoir storage, sediment serves as a vehicle for the transport of many binding contaminants, including nutrients, trace metals, semi-volatile organic compounds, a nd numerous pesticides (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000a). Recent efforts to addr ess water-quality concerns through the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process have iden tified sediment as the single most prevalent cause of impairment in the Nation’s streams a nd rivers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000b). Moreover, sediment has been identified as a medium for the tran sport and sequestration of organic carbon, playing a potentia lly important role in understa nding sources and sinks in the global carbon budget (Stallard, 1998). A comprehensive understanding of sediment fate a nd transport is considered essential to the design and implementation of effective plans for sediment management (Osterkamp and others, 1998, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1990). An exte nsive literature addr essing the problem of quantifying sediment transport has produced a nu mber of methods for estimating its flux (see Cohn, 1995, and Robertson and Roerish, 1999, for us eful surveys). The accuracy of these methods is compromised by uncertainty in the concentration measurements and by the highly episodic nature of sediment movement, particul arly when the methods are applied to smaller basins. However, for annual or decadal flux es timates, the methods are generally reliable if calibrated with extended periods of data (Robertson and Roerish, 1999). A substantial literature also supports the Universal Soil Loss Equation (U SLE) (Soil Conservation Service, 1983), an engineering method for estimating sheet and rill erosion, although the empirical credentials of the USLE have recently been questioned (Tri mble and Crosson, 2000). Conversely, relatively little direct evidence is available concerning the fate of sediment. The common practice of quantifying sediment fate with a sediment deliv ery ratio, estimated from a simple empirical relation with upstream basin area, does not artic ulate the relative importance of individual storage sites within a basin (Wolman, 1977). Rates of sediment deposition in reservoirs and flood plains can be determined from empirical measurement s , but only a limited number of sites have been monitored, and net rates of deposition or loss from other potential sinks and sources is largely unknown (Stallard, 1998). In particular, little is known about how much sediment loss from fields ultimately makes its way to stream channels, and how much sediment is subsequently stored in or lost from th e streambed (Meade and Parker, 1985, Trimble and Crosson, 2000). This paper reports on recent progress made to a ddress empirically the question of sediment fate and transport on a national scale. The model pres ented here is based on the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attr ibutes (SPARROW) methodology, fi rst used to estimate the distribution of nutrients in str eams and rivers of the United Stat es, and subsequently shown to describe land and stream processes affecting the delivery of nutrients (Smith and others, 1997, Alexander and others, 2000, Preston and Brakeb ill, 1999). The model makes use of numerous spatial datasets, available at the national level, to explain long-term sediment water-quality conditions in major streams and rivers throughou t the United States. Sediment sources are identified using sediment erosion rates from the National Resources I nventory (NRI) (Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2000) and apportioned over the landscape according to 30- meter resolution land-use information from th e National Land Cover Data set (NLCD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000a). More than 76,000 reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams (NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engin eers, 1996) are identified as pot ential sediment sinks. Other, non-anthropogenic sources and sinks are identified using soil in formation from the State Soil Survey Geographic (STATSGO) data base (Schwarz and Alexander, 1995) and spatial coverages representing surficial rock t ype and vegetative cover. The SPA RROW model empirically relates these diverse spatial datasets to estimates of long-term, mean annual sediment flux computed from concentration and flow measurements co llected over the period 1985 -95 from more than 400 monitoring stations maintained by the Na tional Stream Quality Accounting Network (Alexander and others, 1998), the National Wa ter Quality Assessment Program, and U.S. Geological Survey District offices (Turcios and Gray, in press). Th e calibrated model is used to estimate sediment flux for over 60,000 stream segments included in the River Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network (Alexander and others, 1999). SPARROW uses statis tical methods to calibrate a simple, structural model of riverine water quality, one that imposes mass ba lance in accounting for changes in contaminant flux. As applied here, the mass-balance approach facilitates the interpretation of model results in terms of physical processes affecting sediment transport, and makes possible the estimation of various rates of sediment generation and loss associated with stream channels and features of the landscape. The statistical approach provides a basi s for assessing the error of these inferred rates and of the error in extrapolated estimates of sediment flux made for streams in the RF1 network. An important implication of the holistic modeling approach adopted in this analysis is that estimates of sediment production and loss ar e based on, and therefore consistent with, measurements of in-stream flux. Other ancillary information, such as direct measurements of long-term sediment storage and release from rese rvoirs (Steffen, 1996), is incorporated into the analysis by specifying additional equations expl aining these ancillary variables. The imposition of cross-equation constraints affords this info rmation a statistically consistent weight in explaining in-stream sediment flux. Thus, the me thodology described here represents a general framework for synthesizing a wide spectrum of available information relevant to the understanding of sediment fate and transport.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2009

Ecological effects of lead mining on Ozark streams: In-situ toxicity to woodland crayfish (Orconectes hylas)

The Viburnum Trend mining district in southeast Missouri, USA is one of the largest producers of lead-zinc ore in the world. Previous stream surveys found evidence of increased metal exposure and reduced population densities of crayfish immediately downstream of mining sites. We conducted an in-situ 28-d exposure to assess toxicity of mining-derived metals to the woodland crayfish (Orconectes hylas). Crayfish survival and biomass were significantly lower at mining sites than at reference and downstream sites. Metal concentrations in water, detritus, macroinvertebrates, fish, and crayfish were significantly higher at mining sites, and were negatively correlated with caged crayfish survival. These results support previous field and laboratory studies that showed mining-derived metals negatively affect O. hylas populations in streams draining the Viburnum Trend, and that in-situ toxicity testing was a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of mining on crayfish populations.

Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety↗
USGS2006

Characterization of the hydrology, water chemistry, and aquatic communities of selected springs in the St. Johns River Water Management District, Florida, 2004

The hydrology, water chemistry, and aquatic communities of Silver Springs, De Leon Spring, Gemini Springs, and Green Spring in the St. Johns River Water Management District, Florida, were studied in 2004 to provide a better understanding of each spring and to compile data of potential use in future water-management decisions. Ground water that discharges from these and other north-central Florida springs originates from the Upper Floridan aquifer of the Floridan aquifer system, a karstic limestone aquifer that extends throughout most of the State's peninsula. This report summarizes data about flow, water chemistry, and aquatic communities, including benthic invertebrates, fishes, algae, and aquatic macrophytes collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, the St. Johns River Water Management District, and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection during 2004, as well as some previously collected data. Differences in water chemistry among these springs reflect local differences in water chemistry in the Upper Floridan aquifer. The three major springs sampled at the Silver Springs group (the Main Spring, Blue Grotto, and the Abyss) have similar proportions of cations and anions but vary in nitrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations. Water from Gemini Springs and Green Spring has higher proportions of sodium and chloride than the Silver Springs group. Water from De Leon Spring also has higher proportions of sodium and chloride than the Silver Springs group but lower proportions of calcium and bicarbonate. Nitrate concentrations have increased over the period of record at all of the springs except Green Spring. Compounds commonly found in wastewater were found in all the springs sampled. The most commonly detected compound was the insect repellant N,N'-diethyl-methyl-toluamide (DEET), which was found in all the springs sampled except De Leon Spring. The pesticide atrazine and its degradate 2-chloro-4-isopropylamino-6-amino-s-triazine (CIAT) were detected in water from the Silver Springs group and in both boils at Gemini Springs. No pesticides were detected in water samples from De Leon Spring and Green Spring. Evidence of denitrification was indicated by the presence of excess nitrogen gas in water samples from most of the springs. Aquatic communities varied among the springs. Large floating mats of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), identified as Lyngbya wollei, were observed in De Leon Spring during all sampling events in 2004. At Gemini Springs, the dominant periphyton was Rhizoclonium sp. Of the three springs sampled for benthic invertebrates, De Leon Spring had the highest overall species richness and most disturbance intolerant species (Florida Index = 4). Green Spring had the lowest species richness of the springs sampled. Based on qualitative comparisons, overall macroinvertebrate species richness seemed to be negatively related to magnesium, potassium, sodium, and specific conductance. Invertebrate abundance was greatest when dissolved oxygen and nitrate were high but phosphorus and potassium concentrations were low. Dipteran abundance seemed to be positively associated with specific conductance and total organic carbon but negatively associated with nitrate-N. Amphipods were the numerically dominant group collected in most (six of nine) collections. Shifts in amphipod abundance of the two species collected (Gammarus sp. and Hyalella azteca) varied by season among the three springs, but there were no trends evident in the variation. Fish populations were relatively species-rich at the Silver Springs group, De Leon Spring, and Gemini Springs, but not at Green Spring. Nonindigenous fish species were observed at all springs except Green Spring.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Effects of wastewater effluent discharge and treatment facility upgrades on environmental and biological conditions of Indian Creek, Johnson County, Kansas, June 2004 through June 2013

Indian Creek is one of the most urban drainage basins in Johnson County, Kansas, and environmental and biological conditions of the creek are affected by contaminants from point and other urban sources. The Johnson County Douglas L. Smith Middle Basin (hereafter referred to as the “Middle Basin”) and Tomahawk Creek Wastewater Treatment Facilities (WWTFs) discharge to Indian Creek. In summer 2010, upgrades were completed to increase capacity and include biological nutrient removal at the Middle Basin facility. There have been no recent infrastructure changes at the Tomahawk Creek facility; however, during 2009, chemically enhanced primary treatment was added to the treatment process for better process settling before disinfection and discharge with the added effect of enhanced phosphorus removal. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Johnson County Wastewater, assessed the effects of wastewater effluent on environmental and biological conditions of Indian Creek by comparing two upstream sites to four sites located downstream from the WWTFs using data collected during June 2004 through June 2013. Environmental conditions were evaluated using previously and newly collected discrete and continuous data and were compared with an assessment of biological community composition and ecosystem function along the upstream-downstream gradient. This study improves the understanding of the effects of wastewater effluent on stream-water and streambed sediment quality, biological community composition, and ecosystem function in urban areas. After the addition of biological nutrient removal to the Middle Basin WWTF in 2010, annual mean total nitrogen concentrations in effluent decreased by 46 percent, but still exceeded the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) wastewater effluent permit concentration goal of 8.0 milligrams per liter (mg/L); however, the NPDES wastewater effluent permit total phosphorus concentration goal of 1.5 mg/L or less was achieved at the Middle Basin WWTF. At the Tomahawk Creek WWTF, after the addition of chemically enhanced primary treatment in 2009, effluent discharges also had total phosphorus concentrations below 1.5 mg/L. After the addition of biological nutrient removal, annual total nitrogen and phosphorus loads from the Middle Basin WWTF decreased by 42 and 54 percent, respectively, even though effluent volume increased by 11 percent. Annual total phosphorus loads from the Tomahawk Creek WWTF after the addition of chemically enhanced primary treatment decreased by 54 percent despite a 33-percent increase in effluent volume. Total nitrogen and phosphorus from the WWTFs contributed between 30 and nearly 100 percent to annual nutrient loads in Indian Creek depending on streamflow conditions. In-stream total nitrogen primarily came from wastewater effluent except during years with the highest streamflows. Most of the in-stream total phosphorus typically came from effluent during dry years and from other urban sources during wet years. During 2010 through 2013, annual mean discharge from the Middle Basin WWTF was about 75 percent of permitted design capacity. Annual nutrient loads likely will increase when the facility is operated at permitted design capacity; however, estimated maximum annual nutrient loads from the Middle Basin WWTF were 27 to 38 percent lower than before capacity upgrades and the addition of biological nutrient removal to treatment processes. Thus, the addition of biological nutrient removal to the Middle Basin wastewater treatment process should reduce overall nutrient loads from the facility even when the facility is operated at permitted design capacity. The effects of wastewater effluent on the water quality of Indian Creek were most evident during below-normal and normal streamflows (about 75 percent of the time) when wastewater effluent represented about 24 percent or more of total streamflow. Wastewater effluent had the most substantial effect on nutrient concentrations in Indian Creek. Total and inorganic nutrient concentrations at the downstream sites during below-normal and normal streamflows were 10 to 100 times higher than at the upstream sites, even after changes in treatment practices at the WWTFs. Median total phosphorus concentrations during below-normal and normal streamflows at a downstream site were 43 percent lower following improvements in wastewater treatment processes. Similar decreases in total nitrogen were not observed, likely because total nitrogen concentrations only decreased in Middle Basin effluent and wastewater contributed a higher percentage to streamflows when nutrient samples were collected during the after-upgrade period. The wastewater effluent discharges to Indian Creek caused changes in stream-water quality that may affect biological community structure and ecosystem processes, including higher concentrations of bioavailable nutrients (nitrate and orthophosphorus) and warmer water temperatures during winter months. Other urban sources of contaminants also caused changes in stream-water quality that may affect biological community structure and ecosystem processes, including higher turbidities downstream from construction areas and higher specific conductance and chloride concentrations during winter months. Chloride concentrations exceeded acute and chronic exposure criteria at all Indian Creek study sites, regardless of wastewater influence, for weeks or months during winter. Streambed sediment chemistry was affected by wastewater (elevated nutrient and organic wastewater-indicator compound concentrations) and other contaminants from urban sources (elevated polyaromatic hydrocarbon concentrations). Overall habitat conditions were suboptimal or marginal at all sites; general decline in habitat conditions along the upstream-downstream gradient likely was caused by the cumulative effects of urbanization with increasing drainage basin size. Wastewater effluent likely affected algal periphyton biomass and community composition, primary production, and community respiration in Indian Creek. Functional stream health, evaluated using a preliminary framework based on primary production and community respiration, was mildly or severely impaired at most downstream sites relative to an urban upstream Indian Creek site. The mechanistic cause of the changes in these biological variables are unclear, though elevated nutrient concentrations were positively correlated with algal biomass, primary production, and community respiration. Macroinvertebrate communities indicated impairment at all sites, and Kansas Department of Health and Environment aquatic life support scores indicated conditions nonsupporting of aquatic life, regardless of wastewater influences. Urban influences, other than wastewater effluent discharge, likely control macroinvertebrate community structure in Indian Creek. Changes in treatment processes at the Middle Basin and Tomahawk Creek WWTFs improved wastewater effluent quality and decreased nutrient loads, but wastewater effluent discharges still had negative effects on the environmental and biological conditions at downstream Indian Creek sites. Wastewater effluent discharge into Indian Creek likely contributed to changes in measures of ecosystem structure (streamflow, water and streambed-sediment chemistry, algal biomass, and algal periphyton community composition) and function (primary production and community respiration) along the upstream-downstream gradient. Wastewater effluent discharges maintained streamflows and increased nutrient concentrations, algal biomass, primary production, and community respiration at the downstream sites. Functional stream health was severely impaired downstream from the Middle Basin WWTF and mildly impaired downstream from the Tomahawk WWTF relative to the urban upstream site. As distance from the Middle Basin WWTF increased, nutrient concentrations, algal biomass, primary production, and community respiration decreased, and functional stream health was no longer impaired 9.5 kilometers downstream from the discharge relative to the urban upstream site. Therefore, although wastewater effluent caused persistent changes in environmental and biological conditions and functional stream health at sites located immediately downstream from WWTF effluent discharges, some recovery to conditions more similar to the urban upstream site occurred within a relatively short distance.

Kansas↗
USGS2013

Exposure and effects of perfluoroalkyl substances in tree swallows nesting in Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA

The exposure and effects of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) were studied at eight locations in Minnesota and Wisconsin between 2007 and 2011 using tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor). Concentrations of PFASs were quantified as were reproductive success end points. The sample egg method was used wherein an egg sample is collected, and the hatching success of the remaining eggs in the nest is assessed. The association between PFAS exposure and reproductive success was assessed by site comparisons, logistic regression analysis, and multistate modeling, a technique not previously used in this context. There was a negative association between concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) in eggs and hatching success. The concentration at which effects became evident (150–200 ng/g wet weight) was far lower than effect levels found in laboratory feeding trials or egg-injection studies of other avian species. This discrepancy was likely because behavioral effects and other extrinsic factors are not accounted for in these laboratory studies and the possibility that tree swallows are unusually sensitive to PFASs. The results from multistate modeling and simple logistic regression analyses were nearly identical. Multistate modeling provides a better method to examine possible effects of additional covariates and assessment of models using Akaike information criteria analyses. There was a credible association between PFOS concentrations in plasma and eggs, so extrapolation between these two commonly sampled tissues can be performed.

Minnesota;Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and identification of protection or rehabilitation sites.

New York↗