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USGS2012

Physical Climate Forces

Key Findings The coasts of the U.S. are home to many large urban centers and important infrastructure such seaports, airports, transportation routes, oil import and refining facilities, power plants, and military bases. All are vulnerable to varying degrees to impacts of global warming such as sea-level rise, storms, and flooding. High Confidence. Physical observations collected over the past several decades from the land, coasts, oceans, and the atmosphere, as well as environmental indicators, show that warming and some related environmental changes are occurring globally at rates greater than can be expected due to natural processes. These climate-related changes are highly varied, but some are likely due in large part to anthropogenically increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and altered land surface properties. High Confidence. Findings from many independent scientific studies conclude that these changes are consistent with global warming. The primary changes observed are rising sea level and average global air, land, and ocean temperatures; heightening temperature and precipitation extremes in some regions; and increasing levels of oceans acidification and rates of glacier and ice sheet melt. High Confidence. Most coastal landforms, such as barrier islands, deltas, bays, estuaries, wetlands, coral reefs, are highly dynamic and sensitive to even small changes in physical forces and feedbacks such as warming, storms, ocean circulation, waves and currents, flooding, sediment budgets, and sea-level rise. High Confidence. The effects of sea-level rise on coasts vary considerably from region-to-region and over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Land subsidence in certain locations causes relative sea-level rise to exceed global mean sea-level rise. Land uplift such as that found in Alaska and the Northwestern Pacific coast can reduce effects of global mean rise. The effects will be greatest and most immediate on low-relief, low-elevation parts of the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico, mid-Atlantic states, northern Alaska, Hawaii, and island territories and especially on coasts containing deltas, coastal plains, tidal wetlands, bays, estuaries, and coral reefs. Beaches and wetlands on steep cliff coasts and shores backed with seawalls may be unable to move landward or maintain their landform with sea-level rise. Many areas of the coast are especially vulnerable because of the often detrimental effects of development on natural processes. High Confidence. The gradual inundation from recent sea-level rise is evident in many regions such as the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana where high tides regularly flood roads and areas that were previously dry, and in stands of “ghost forests,” in which trees are killed by intrusion of brackish water. High Confidence. Sea level change and storms are dominant driving forces of coastal change as observed in the geologic record of coastal landforms. Increasingly, sea-level rise will become a hazard for coastal regions because of continued global mean sea-level rise, including possibly accelerated rates of rise that increase risk to coastal regions. As the global climate continues to warm and ice sheets melt, coasts will become more dynamic and coastal cities and low-lying areas will be increasingly exposed to erosion, inundation, and flooding. High Confidence. No coordinated, interagency process exists in the U.S. for identifying agreed upon global mean sea-level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, or management, even though this is a critical first step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. High Confidence. Global sea level rose at a rate of 1.7 millimeters/year during the 20th century. The rate has increased to over 3 millimeters/year in the past 20 years and scientific studies suggest high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise 0.2 to 2 meters by the end of this century. Some regions such as Louisiana and the Chesapeake Bay will experience greater relative rise due to factors such as land subsidence, gravitational redistribution of ice-sheet meltwater, ocean circulation changes, and regional ocean thermostatic effects. Other regions undergoing land uplift, such as Alaska, will experience lesser sea-level rise. High Confidence. Variability in the location and time-of-year of storm genesis can influence landfalling storm characteristics, and even small changes can lead to large changes in landfalling location and impact. Although scientists have only low confidence in the sign of projected changes to the coast of storm-related hazards that depend on a combination of factors such as frequency, track, intensity, and storm size, any sea-level rise is virtually certain to exacerbate storm-related hazards. High Confidence. Although sea-level rise and climate change have occurred in the past, the increasing human presence in the coastal zone will make the impacts different for the future. Land use and other human activities often inhibit the natural response of physical processes and adaptation by plants and animals. In some areas, erosion and wetland loss are common because sediment budgets have been reduced, while, in other regions, excess sediment is in-filling harbors, channels, and bays. High Confidence. Observations continue to indicate an ongoing, warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle that will likely result in heavier precipitation events and, combined with sea-level rise and storm surge, an increased flooding severity in some coastal areas, particularly the northeast U.S. Moderate Confidence. Temperature is primarily driving environmental change in the Alaskan coastal zone. Sea ice and permafrost make northern regions particularly susceptible to temperature change. For example, an increase of two degrees Celsius could basically transform much of Alaska from frozen to unfrozen, with extensive implications. Portions of the north and west coast of Alaska are seeing dramatic increases in the rate of coastal erosion and flooding due to sea ice loss and permafrost melting. As a consequence, several coastal communities are planning to relocate to safer locations. Relocation is a difficult decision that is likely to become more common in the future for many coastal regions. High Confidence. Methane is a primary greenhouse gas. Large reserves of methane are bound-up in Alaska’s frozen permafrost. These are susceptible to disturbance and methane release if the Arctic continues to warm. The additional methane released may result in even greater greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. High Confidence.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Primary sources and toxicity of PAHs in Milwaukee-area streambed sediment

High concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in streams can be a significant stressor to aquatic organisms. To understand the likely sources and toxicity of PAHs in Milwaukee-area streams, streambed sediment samples from 40 sites and parking lot dust samples from 6 sites were analyzed for 38 parent PAHs and 25 alkylated PAHs. Diagnostic ratios, profile correlations, principal components analysis, source-receptor modeling, and mass fractions analysis were used to identify potential PAH sources to streambed sediment samples, and land-use analysis was used to relate streambed sediment PAH concentrations to different urban-related land uses. On the basis of this multiple lines-of-evidence approach, coal-tar pavement sealant was indicated as the primary source of PAHs in a majority of streambed sediment samples, contributing an estimated 77% of total PAHs to samples, on average. Comparison to the Probable Effect Concentrations and (or) the Equilibrium Partitioning Sediment Benchmark indicates that 78% of stream sediment samples are likely to cause adverse effects to benthic organisms. Laboratory toxicity tests on a 16-sample subset of the streambed sites using the amphipod Hyalella azteca (28-day) and the midge Chironomus dilutus (10-day) measured significant reductions in one or more biological endpoints, including survival, in 75% of samples, with H. azteca more responsive than C. dilutus .

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Sex‐specific responses in neuroanatomy of hatchling American kestrels in response to embryonic exposure to the flame retardants bis(2‐ethylhexyl)‐2,3,4,5‐tetrabromophthalate and 2‐ethylhexyl‐2,3,4,5‐tetrabromobenzoate

Bis(2‐ethylhexyl)‐2,3,4,5‐tetrabromophthalate (BEH‐TEBP) and 2‐ethylhexyl‐2,3,4,5‐tetrabromobenzoate (EH‐TBB), flame retardant components of FireMaster 550® and 600® have been detected in tissues of wild birds. To address the paucity of information regarding potential impacts of flame retardants on the brain, brain volume regions of hatchling American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) were evaluated following in ovo injection at embryonic day 5 with safflower oil or to 1 of 3 doses of either BEH‐TEBP (13, 64, or 116 μg/g egg) or EH‐TBB (12, 60, or 149 μg/g egg). The doses for both chemicals reflected concentrations reported in wild birds. The volumes of the hippocampus and telencephalon and volumetric differences between left and right hemispheres were measured in hatchlings (embryonic day 28). A sex‐specific effect of BEH‐TEBP on relative hippocampus volume was evident: the hippocampus was significantly enlarged in high‐dose females compared to control females but smaller in low‐dose females than the other females. There was no significant effect of EH‐TBB on hippocampus volume in female kestrel hatchlings or of either chemical in male hatchlings and no effects of these concentrations of EH‐TBB or BEH‐TEBP on telencephalon volume or the level of symmetry between the hemispheres of the brain. In sum, embryonic exposure of female kestrels to these BEH‐TEBP concentrations altered hippocampus volume, having the potential to affect spatial memory relating to ecologically relevant behavior such as prey capture, predator avoidance, and migration.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS1998

Evaluation of microtiter-plate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the analysis of triazine and chloroacetanilide herbicides in rainfall

Triazine and chloroacetanilide concentrations in rainfall samples collected from a 23-state region of the United States were analyzed with microtiter-plate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Thirty-six percent of rainfall samples (2072 out of 5691) were confirmed using gas chro matography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) to evaluate the operating performance of ELISA as a screening test. Comparison of ELISA to GC/MS results showed that the two ELISA methods accurately reported GC/MS results ( m = 1), but with more variability evident with the triazine than with the chloroacetanilide ELISA. Bayes's rule, a standardized method to report the results of screening tests, indicated that the two ELISA methods yielded comparable predictive values (80%), but the triazine ELISA yielded a false-positive rate of 11.8% and the chloroacetanilide ELISA yielded a false-negative rate of 23.1%. The false-positive rate for the triazine ELISA may arise from cross reactivity with an unknown triazine or metabolite. The false-negative rate of the chloroacetanilide ELISA probably resulted from a combination of low sensitivity at the reporting limit of 0.15 μg/L and a distribution characterized by 75% of the samples at or below the reporting limit of 0.15 μg/L.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2014

Mercury in the soil of two contrasting watersheds in the eastern United States

Soil represents the largest store of mercury (Hg) in terrestrial ecosystems, and further study of the factors associated with soil Hg storage is needed to address concerns about the magnitude and persistence of global environmental Hg bioaccumulation. To address this need, we compared total Hg and methyl Hg concentrations and stores in the soil of different landscapes in two watersheds in different geographic settings with similar and relatively high methyl Hg concentrations in surface waters and biota, Fishing Brook, Adirondack Mountains, New York, and McTier Creek, Coastal Plain, South Carolina. Median total Hg concentrations and stores in organic and mineral soil samples were three-fold greater at Fishing Brook than at McTier Creek. Similarly, median methyl Hg concentrations were about two-fold greater in Fishing Brook soil than in McTier Creek soil, but this difference was significant only for mineral soil samples, and methyl Hg stores were not significantly different among these watersheds. In contrast, the methyl Hg/total Hg ratio was significantly greater at McTier Creek suggesting greater climate-driven methylation efficiency in the Coastal Plain soil than that of the Adirondack Mountains. The Adirondack soil had eight-fold greater soil organic matter than that of the Coastal Plain, consistent with greater total Hg stores in the northern soil, but soil organic matter – total Hg relations differed among the sites. A strong linear relation was evident at McTier Creek (r 2 = 0.68; p<0.001), but a linear relation at Fishing Brook was weak (r 2 = 0.13; p<0.001) and highly variable across the soil organic matter content range, suggesting excess Hg binding capacity in the Adirondack soil. These results suggest greater total Hg turnover time in Adirondack soil than that of the Coastal Plain, and that future declines in stream water Hg concentrations driven by declines in atmospheric Hg deposition will be more gradual and prolonged in the Adirondacks.

New York;South Carolina↗

USGS2004

Periphyton and Macroinvertebrate Communities at Five Sites in the San Joaquin River Basin, California, during June and September, 2001

The effects of agriculture, particularly from the use of pesticides, on aquatic ecosystems in the San Joaquin River Basin concern many aquatic resource managers, water quality managers, and water users. A total of five sites were sampled once in June 2001 and once in September 2001 to document the periphyton (attached algae) community, the benthic macroinvertebrate (insects and non-insects) community, and stream habitat conditions. The purposes of the study were to document existing conditions and, to the extent possible, relate the periphyton and macroinvertebrate community condition to environmental conditions. A total of 161 taxa of algae were collected during the study. Samples from the richest targeted habitat, woody debris, included 109 taxa. In both the June and September samples, greater than 95 percent of the taxa collected were diatoms. Cluster analysis and detrended correspondence analysis of sample data showed that Orestimba Creek had a very different periphyton community than the Merced and Tuolumne Rivers. Salt Slough and the San Joaquin River had community compositions that were intermediate between the two extremes. A total of 126 taxa of macroinvertebrates were collected during the study. Samples from woody debris included 59 taxa. The samples included a variety of both insect and non-insect taxa. Cluster analysis and detrended correspondence analysis of sample data showed that Orestimba Creek was very different from the Merced River and Tuolumne River, similar to the results for periphyton. Orestimba Creek was dominated by non-insects, while the Merced and Tuolumne Rivers were dominated by insects. Salt Slough was more similar to Orestimba Creek because of the abundance of non-insects. The San Joaquin River was more similar to the Merced and Tuolumne Rivers. There was no evidence of major differences between June and September samples for either the periphyton or macroinvertebrate communities. Specific conductance (a surrogate for salinity) and several habitat measures were associated with differences in the periphyton and macroinvertebrate communities at the five sites. Additional sampling at more sites over a longer period of time will likely be necessary before the effects of water quality and habitat conditions on aquatic communities are fully understood in the San Joaquin River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Forecasting the distribution of a range-expanding bat reveals future response to climate change and habitat

Many terrestrial vertebrate species are exhibiting geographic distribution changes including poleward range limit shifts in response to increases in regional temperature. Bats are a highly mobile taxa capable of rapid responses to changes in abiotic or biotic conditions. In North America, recent extralimital records of the non-hibernating Lasiurus seminolus (Seminole bat) have been attributed to climate change, however such attributions remain speculative and potentially subject to sampling bias in the form of increased recent sampling efforts at latitudes north of the historical range. We used historical occurrence records and simple environmental variables within a Maxent modeling framework to model the historical distribution of suitable areas for this species. We transferred the model using near current environmental conditions and measured the ability of the model to capture the apparent expansion in distribution using recent extralimital occurrence records. This measure indicated a distribution expansion, largely attributed to increasing minimum temperatures. We used the model to forecast the expansion in distribution of suitable areas at three 20-year intervals and various climate change scenarios and provide extrapolation risk maps for each scenario. Although increasing temperatures may increase potentially occupiable areas, the species is associated with forests and often roosts in Pinus spp. (pines). This suitable habitat is reduced in presence to the northwest of the species’ range, which may constrain the future species expansion despite favorable temperatures. We demonstrated this effect by mapping limiting factors through future climate change scenarios. We discovered a broad shift of effects that constrained the distribution from minimum temperature to a metric of evergreen cover type as time and climate intensity increased. Although uncertainties exist, we predict further expansion of the Seminole bat widely over the next 60 years across the eastern United States where suitable habitat and climate conditions converge. Our results appear consistent with other bat species showing similar range extensions and in turn provide further evidence that bats may serve as bioindicators of global change.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Ind↗

USGS2000

Stress resistance strategy in an arid land shrub: interactions between developmental instability and fractal dimention

This paper investigates allocation of energy to mechanisms that generate and preserve architectural forms (i.e. developmental stability, complexity of branching patterns) and productivity (growth and reproduction) in response to environmental disturbances (i.e. grazing and resource availability). The statistical error in translational symmetry was used to detect random intra-individual variability during development. This can be thought of as a measure of developmental instability caused by stress. Additionally, we use changes in fractal complexity and shoot distribution of branch structures as an alternate indicator of stress. These methods were applied to Anthyllis cytisoides L., a semi-arid environment shrub, to ascertain the effect of grazing and slope exposure on developmental traits in a 2×2 factorial design. The results show that A. cytisoides maintains developmental stability at the expense of productivity. Anthyllis cytisoides was developmentally more stable when grazed and when on south-facing, as opposed to north-facing slopes. On the contrary, shoot length, leaf area, fractal dimension and reproductive-to-vegetative allocation ratio were larger in north- than in south-facing slopes. As a consequence, under extreme xeric conditions, shrub mortality increased in north-facing slopes, especially when not grazed. The removal of transpiring area and the reduction of plant competition favoured developmental stability and survival in grazed plants. Differences between grazed and ungrazed plants were most evident in more mesic (north-facing) areas.

Journal of Fish Diseases↗

USGS2002

Immunological and physiological effects of chronic exposure of Peromyscus leucopus to Aroclor 1254 at a concentration similar to that found at contaminated sites

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are environmental contaminants known to cause adverse health effects to biological systems. Limited data are available on their effects on the immune system of wildlife species. Previously, we found that 4 and 6-week-old white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) born from dams injected with a single dose (300 mg/kg) of Aroclor 1254, had altered immunological, hematological, and biochemical responses. Here, we examined the effect of transplacental lactational and postnatal exposure to Aroclor 1254, at a concentration similar to that found at contaminated sites, on various physiological parameters of 22-week-old white-footed mice. Liver weight and liver somatic index of PCB treated animals were significantly higher, the combined weights of the adrenal glands were significantly lower and EROD and BROD enzyme activity was significantly higher compared to control values. The number of thymocytes of the treated mice was significantly lower than that of the controls; however, thymocytes of treated mice had a higher proliferative response to the mitogen Con A. These alterations were correlated with the PCBs body burdens. Some toxic effects of chronic exposure to PCBs, at levels comparable to exposure found in contaminated sites in the USA, are still evident in adult P. leucopus.

Toxicology↗

USGS2015

Parent–offspring resemblance in colony-specific adult survival of cliff swallows

Survival is a key component of fitness. Species that occupy discrete breeding colonies with different characteristics are often exposed to varying costs and benefits associated with group size or environmental conditions, and survival is an integrative net measure of these effects. We investigated the extent to which survival probability of adult (≥1-year old) cliff swallows ( Petrochelidon pyrrhonota ) occupying different colonies resembled that of their parental cohort and thus whether the natal colony had long-term effects on individuals. Individuals were cross-fostered between colonies soon after hatching and their presence as breeders monitored at colonies in the western Nebraska study area for the subsequent decade. Colony-specific adult survival probabilities of offspring born and reared in the same colony, and those cross-fostered away from their natal colony soon after birth, were positively and significantly related to subsequent adult survival of the parental cohort from the natal colony. This result held when controlling for the effect of natal colony size and the age composition of the parental cohort. In contrast, colony-specific adult survival of offspring cross-fostered to a site was unrelated to that of their foster parent cohort or to the cohort of non-fostered offspring with whom they were reared. Adult survival at a colony varied inversely with fecundity, as measured by mean brood size, providing evidence for a survival–fecundity trade-off in this species. The results suggest some heritable variation in adult survival, likely maintained by negative correlations between fitness components. The study provides additional evidence that colonies represent non-random collections of individuals.

Evolutionary Ecology↗

USGS2014

Variability in seroprevalence of rabies virus neutralizing antibodies and associated factors in a Colorado population of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

In 2001–2005 we sampled permanently marked big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) at summer roosts in buildings at Fort Collins, Colorado, for rabies virus neutralizing antibodies (RVNA). Seroprevalence was higher in adult females (17.9%, n = 2,332) than males (9.4%, n = 128; P = 0.007) or volant juveniles (10.2%, n = 738; P<0.0001). Seroprevalence was lowest in a drought year with local insecticide use and highest in the year with normal conditions, suggesting that environmental stress may suppress RVNA production in big brown bats. Seroprevalence also increased with age of bat, and varied from 6.2 to 26.7% among adult females at five roosts sampled each year for five years. Seroprevalence of adult females at 17 other roosts sampled for 1 to 4 years ranged from 0.0 to 47.1%. Using logistic regression, the only ranking model in our candidate set of explanatory variables for serological status at first sampling included year, day of season, and a year by day of season interaction that varied with relative drought conditions. The presence or absence of antibodies in individual bats showed temporal variability. Year alone provided the best model to explain the likelihood of adult female bats showing a transition to seronegative from a previously seropositive state. Day of the season was the only competitive model to explain the likelihood of a transition from seronegative to seropositive, which increased as the season progressed. We found no rabies viral RNA in oropharyngeal secretions of 261 seropositive bats or in organs of 13 euthanized seropositive bats. Survival of seropositive and seronegative bats did not differ. The presence of RVNA in serum of bats should not be interpreted as evidence for ongoing rabies infection.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Movement behavior in a dominant ungulate underlies successful adjustment to a rapidly changing landscape following megafire

Background Movement plays a key role in allowing animal species to adapt to sudden environmental shifts. Anthropogenic climate and land use change have accelerated the frequency of some of these extreme disturbances, including megafire. These megafires dramatically alter ecosystems and challenge the capacity of several species to adjust to a rapidly changing landscape. Ungulates and their movement behaviors play a central role in the ecosystem functions of fire-prone ecosystems around the world. Previous work has shown behavioral plasticity is an important mechanism underlying whether large ungulates are able to adjust to recent changes in their environments effectively. Ungulates may respond to the immediate effects of megafire by adjusting their movement and behavior, but how these responses persist or change over time following disturbance is poorly understood. Methods We examined how an ecologically dominant ungulate with strong site fidelity, Columbian black-tailed deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ), adjusted its movement and behavior in response to an altered landscape following a megafire. To do so, we collected GPS data from 21 individual female deer over the course of a year to compare changes in home range size over time and used resource selection functions (RSFs) and hidden Markov movement models (HMMs) to assess changes in behavior and habitat selection. Results We found compelling evidence of adaptive capacity across individual deer in response to megafire. Deer avoided exposed and severely burned areas that lack forage and could be riskier for predation immediately following megafire, but they later altered these behaviors to select areas that burned at higher severities, potentially to take advantage of enhanced forage. Conclusions These results suggest that despite their high site fidelity, deer can navigate altered landscapes to track rapid shifts in encounter risk with predators and resource availability. This successful adjustment of movement and behavior following extreme disturbance could help facilitate resilience at broader ecological scales.

California↗

USGS2009

An evaluation of density-dependent and density-independent influences on population growth rates in Weddell seals

Much of the existing literature that evaluates the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors on population dynamics has been called into question in recent years because measurement errors were not properly dealt with in analyses. Using state-space models to account for measurement errors, we evaluated a set of competing models for a 22-year time series of mark-resight estimates of abundance for a breeding population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) studied in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We tested for evidence of direct density dependence in growth rates and evaluated whether equilibrium population size was related to seasonal sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We found strong evidence of negative density dependence in annual growth rates for a population whose estimated size ranged from 438 to 623 females during the study. Based on Bayes factors, a density-dependence-only model was favored over models that also included en! vironmental covariates. According to the favored model, the population had a stationary distribution with a mean of 497 females (SD = 60.5), an expected growth rate of 1.10 (95% credible interval 1.08-1.15) when population size was 441 females, and a rate of 0.90 (95% credible interval 0.87-0.93) for a population of 553 females. A model including effects of SOI did receive some support and indicated a positive relationship between SOI and population size. However, effects of SOI were not large, and including the effect did not greatly reduce our estimate of process variation. We speculate that direct density dependence occurred because rates of adult survival, breeding, and temporary emigration were affected by limitations on per capita food resources and space for parturition and pup-rearing. To improve understanding of the relative roles of various demographic components and their associated vital rates to population growth rate, mark-recapture methods can be applied that incorporate both environmental covariates and the seal abundance estimates that were developed here. An improved understanding of why vital rates change with changing population abundance will only come as we develop a better understanding of the processes affecting marine food resources in the Southern Ocean.

Ecology↗

USGS2021

Fatty acid profiles of feeding and fasting bears: Estimating calibration coefficients, the timeframe of diet estimates, and selective mobilization during hibernation

Accurate information on diet composition is central to understanding and conserving carnivore populations. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) has emerged as a powerful tool for estimating the diets of predators, but ambiguities remain about the timeframe of QFASA estimates and the need to account for species-specific patterns of metabolism. We conducted a series of feeding experiments with four juvenile male brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) to (1) track the timing of changes in adipose tissue composition and QFASA diet estimates in response to a change in diet and (2) quantify the relationship between consumer and diet FA composition (i.e., determine “calibration coefficients”). Bears were fed three compositionally distinct diets for 90–120 days each. Two marine-based diets were intended to approximate the lipid content and composition of the wild diet of polar bears ( U. maritimus ). Bear adipose tissue composition changed quickly in the direction of the diet and showed evidence of stabilization after 60 days. During hibernation, FA profiles were initially stable but diet estimates after 10 weeks were sensitive to calibration coefficients. Calibration coefficients derived from the marine-based diets were broadly similar to each other and to published values from marine-fed mink ( Mustela vison ), which have been used as a model for free-ranging polar bears. For growing bears on a high-fat diet, the temporal window for QFASA estimates was 30–90 days. Although our results reinforce the importance of accurate calibration, the similarities across taxa and diets suggest it may be feasible to develop a generalized QFASA approach for mammalian carnivores.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, ↗

USGS2026

Weathering the ride: Associations of heat, smoke, precipitation, and ozone with bus ridership in Colorado

Weather and climate variability increasingly shape urban travel behavior, yet the short-term temporal dynamics and contextual modifiers of weather-transit relationships remain poorly understood. We analyzed system-wide hourly bus ridership in the Denver metropolitan area from June 2022 through September 2023 using fixed-effects negative binomial distributed lag nonlinear models with lags up to 24 h. Nonlinear exposure-response and lag-response functions were specified for hourly Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and precipitation, with additional indicators for daily ozone exceedance and wildfire smoke. Models adjust for hour-of-day, day-of-week, and month-year fixed effects, with standard errors clustered by day. Stratified analyses assess heterogeneity by time period, season, fare policy, and shelter availability, with interaction evaluated using Wald tests. Cold thermal stress was associated with the largest, most persistent reductions in ridership, with cumulative declines of −15.7% (95% CI: −26.0%, −4.0%) over 0-24 h. Precipitation was associated with sharp but transient reductions concentrated within 3-6 h (−8.4% to −9.8%), with little evidence of longer-term displacement. Heat associations were weaker and context-dependent, with modest short-run increases, but net same-day declines. Associations varied by time of day and season, were attenuated during the free-fare period, and differed by shelter availability. In contrast, ozone exceedance and wildfire smoke exhibited limited and inconsistent associations, with measurable reductions primarily during morning commute during heavier smoke conditions. Overall, transit ridership is more strongly associated with short-term weather exposure, than with ambient air quality. Fare policy and stop-level infrastructure modify these associations, highlighting actionable strategies to enhance transit resilience under increasing climate variability.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Measurement of dissolved organic matter fluorescense in aquatic environments: An interlaboratory comparison

The fluorescent properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) are often studied in order to infer DOM characteristics in aquatic environments, including source, quantity, composition, and behavior. While a potentially powerful technique, a single widely implemented standard method for correcting and presenting fluorescence measurements is lacking, leading to difficulties when comparing data collected by different research groups. This paper reports on a large-scale interlaboratory comparison in which natural samples and well-characterized fluorophores were analyzed in 20 laboratories in the U.S., Europe, and Australia. Shortcomings were evident in several areas, including data quality-assurance, the accuracy of spectral correction factors used to correct EEMs, and the treatment of optically dense samples. Data corrected by participants according to individual laboratory procedures were more variable than when corrected under a standard protocol. Wavelength dependency in measurement precision and accuracy were observed within and between instruments, even in corrected data. In an effort to reduce future occurrences of similar problems, algorithms for correcting and calibrating EEMs are described in detail, and MATLAB scripts for implementing the study's protocol are provided. Combined with the recent expansion of spectral fluorescence standards, this approach will serve to increase the intercomparability of DOM fluorescence studies.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2018

Predicting species-habitat relationships: Does body size matter?

Context. Allometric scaling laws are foundational to structuring processes from cellular to ecosystem levels. The idea that allometric relationships underlie species characteristic selection scales, the spatial scales at which species respond to landscape features, has recently been investigated, however, supporting empirical evidence is scarce. Objectives. Lack of pattern can be explained by inaccurate estimation, low power, confounding factors, or absence of a relationship. In this paper, we evaluate the relationship between body size and species characteristic selection scales after overcoming limitations of previous study designs. Methods. We conducted 1328 avian point counts across the state of Nebraska using the robust sampling design to account for imperfect detection. We used Bayesian latent indicator scale selection with N-mixture models to estimate species’ characteristic selection scales of six habitat features in 86 species. We propagated the uncertainty associated with assigning characteristic scales to a model of the relationship between body size and characteristic spatial scales. Results. Species characteristic scales varied across habitat predictors, and varied in the uncertainty associated with selecting single characteristic scales. After propagating uncertainty our results do not support a relationship between species’ body size and the spatial scales at which they respond to landscape features. Conclusions. As species abundance integrates birth, death, immigration, and emigration processes, each of which are influenced by ecological processes manifesting at various scales, we question whether a general allometric relationship should be expected. Our results suggest that selection may act on responses to specific environmental features, rather than response to spatial scale per se.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2007

Toxicity and hazard of vanadium to mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) and Canada geese (Branta canadensis)

A recent Canada goose ( Branta canadensis ) die-off at a petroleum refinery fly ash pond in Delaware was attributed to vanadium (V) toxicity. Because of the paucity of V toxicity data for wild birds, a series of studies was undertaken using the forms of V believed to have resulted in this incident. In 7-d single oral dose trials with mallard drakes ( Anas platyrhynchos ), the estimated median lethal dose (LD50) for vanadium pentoxide was 113 mg/kg body weight, while the LD50 for sodium metavanadate was 75.5 mg/kg. Sodium metavanadate was found to be even more potent (LD50 = 37.2 mg/kg) in male Canada geese. The most distinctive histopathological lesion of both forms of V was lympho-granulocytic enteritis with hemorrhage into the intestinal lumen. Vanadium accumulation in liver and kidney was proportional to the administered dose, and predictive analyses based on these data suggest that V concentrations of 10 μg/g dry weight (dw) in liver and 25 μg/g dw in kidney are associated with mortality (>90% confidence that exposure is >LD50) in mallards acutely exposed to sodium metavanadate. Chronic exposure to increasing dietary concentrations of sodium metavanadate (38.5 to 2651 ppm) over 67 d resulted in V accumulation in liver and kidney (25.2 and 13.6 μg/g dw, respectively), mild intestinal hemorrhage, blood chemistry changes, and evidence of hepatic oxidative stress in mallards, although some of these responses may have been confounded by food avoidance and weight loss. Dietary exposure of mallards to 250 ppm sodium metavanadate for 4 wk resulted in modest accumulation of V in liver and kidney (<5 μg/g dw) and mild intestinal hemorrhage. Based on these data and other observations, it is unlikely that chronic low-level dietary exposure to V poses a direct lethal hazard to wildlife. However, point sources, such as the V-laden fly ash pond encountered by geese at the petroleum refinery in Delaware, may pose a significant hazard to water birds.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Pa↗