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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Spring resource phenology and timing of songbird migration across the Gulf of Mexico

Migratory songbirds are advancing their arrival to breeding areas in response to climatic warming at temperate latitudes. Less is understood about the impacts of climate changes outside the breeding period. Every spring, millions of migrating songbirds that overwinter in the Caribbean and Central and South America stop to rest and refuel in the first available habitats after crossing the Gulf of Mexico. We used capture data from a long-term banding station (20 years: 1993 to 2012) located on the northern coast of the Gulf to assess the passage timing of 17 species making northward migrations into eastern North America. We further assessed spring resource phenology as measured by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on nonbreeding ranges and en route. We tested the hypotheses that spring passage timing has advanced during the past two decades and that annual variability in passage timing into eastern North America is related to spring resource phenology on stationary nonbreeding ranges and during passage south of the Gulf. Further, we assessed whether annual variability in resource phenology south of the Gulf was a good indicator of the conditions that migrants encountered upon first landfall in eastern North America. We found no trend in migration timing for species that migrate from South America and annual variability in their passage timing was unrelated to environmental conditions in nonbreeding ranges or en route. Species that migrate from Central America and the Caribbean delayed arrival by 2 to 3 days over the 20-year period and arrived later during years when conditions were dryer in nonbreeding ranges and passage areas south of the Gulf. Further, year to year variability in spring resource phenology in nonbreeding ranges and passage areas south of the Gulf were not good indicators of resource phenology upon arrival in eastern North America. Therefore, despite the fact that many migrant species have been arriving increasingly earlier to breeding grounds, the passage timing of 17 species into eastern North America has either not changed or is slightly later, due to drying spring conditions in Central America and the Caribbean. Our results suggest that Nearctic–Neotropical migratory birds adjust the rate of migration primarily within eastern North America and, in light of warmer temperatures in the temperate zone and earlier arrival timing to breeding ranges, species that overwinter in Central America and the Caribbean may be increasing the speed of migration within eastern North America.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2018

Climate change refugia

Climate change is affecting the distribution, abundance, and persistence of species and ecosystems around the world. As natural resource managers are tasked with maintaining and protecting species and ecosystems from the effects of a changing climate, options for minimizing impacts are needed. Options for climate adaptation—the policy and management actions taken to minimize negative effects of climate change—include transition, resilience, and resistance strategies (Millar et al. 2007). Transition or “response” strategies focus on allowing inevitable changes to certain attributes of an ecosystem or species (e.g, species composition or ranges), while maintaining ecosystem function and/or desired ecosystem services.

Report↗

USGS2017

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade -1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade -1 , and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade -1 . Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2012

Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region 1 , 2 , 3 , contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau 1 , 4 , a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia’s high-mountain ranges. We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2022

Taming the temperature: Sagebrush songbirds modulate microclimate via nest-site selection

Understanding species’ responses to temperature via behavior, and the factors affecting the extent of behavioral responses, is a critical and timely endeavor given the rapid pace at which the climate is changing. The young of altricial songbirds are particularly sensitive to temperature, and parents may modulate temperatures at nests via selection of nest sites, albeit to a largely unknown extent. We examined whether sagebrush-obligate songbirds, that reproduce within an open ecosystem with wide temperature fluctuations and span a range of body sizes, selected their nest sites on the basis of temperature. We further investigated whether nest predation risk and ambient conditions modulated temperature-based choices. We placed temperature loggers at nest sites and in unused but available nest niches and nest shrubs along a known predation-risk gradient and used nearby weather stations to determine ambient temperatures. The two smaller-bodied birds, Brewer’s Sparrow ( Spizella breweri ) and Sagebrush Sparrow ( Artemisiospiza nevadensis ), selected nest shrubs and niches that were warmer and less variable relative to unused sites whereas the larger bodied species, Sage Thrashers ( Oreoscoptes montanus ), did not. Brewer’s Sparrows and Sage Thrashers dampened selection for warmer nest sites when temperatures experienced during the nest-site prospecting period were warmer. None of the three species altered nest-site selection with respect to temperature in response to ambient temperature variability or our index of nest predation risk. The microhabitat characteristics that most influenced temperatures at nests varied across species. Our results suggest that songbirds can modulate temperatures at nests to some extent, and such responses can vary depending on the conditions experienced prior to nest initiation. Responses also varied across species, likely reflecting different physiological tolerances. The extent to which breeding birds will be able to continue to proximately influence temperature via nest-site choices likely will depend on the extent and rate of future climatic shifts.

Ornithology↗

USGS2017

Holocene fire occurrence and alluvial responses at the leading edge of pinyon–juniper migration in the Northern Great Basin, USA

Fire and vegetation records at the City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO), south-central Idaho, display the interaction of changing climate, fire and vegetation along the migrating front of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ). Radiocarbon dating of alluvial charcoal reconstructed local fire occurrence and geomorphic response, and fossil woodrat ( Neotoma ) middens revealed pinyon and juniper arrivals. Fire peaks occurred ~ 10,700–9500, 7200–6700, 2400–2000, 850–700, and 550–400 cal yr BP, whereas ~ 9500–7200, 6700–4700 and ~ 1500–1000 cal yr BP are fire-free. Wetter climates and denser vegetation fueled episodic fires and debris flows during the early and late Holocene, whereas drier climates and reduced vegetation caused frequent sheetflooding during the mid-Holocene. Increased fires during the wetter and more variable late Holocene suggest variable climate and adequate fuels augment fires at CIRO. Utah juniper and single-leaf pinyon colonized CIRO by 3800 and 2800 cal yr BP, respectively, though pinyon did not expand broadly until ~ 700 cal yr BP. Increased fire-related deposition coincided with regional droughts and pinyon infilling ~ 850–700 and 550–400 cal yr BP. Early and late Holocene vegetation change probably played a major role in accelerated fire activity, which may be sustained into the future due to pinyon–juniper densification and cheatgrass invasion.

Idaho↗

USGS2013

A model for evaluating effects of climate, water availability, and water management on wetland impoundments--a case study on Bowdoin, Long Lake, and Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuges

Many wetland impoundments managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the northern Great Plains rely on rivers as a primary water source. A large number of these impoundments currently are being stressed from changes in water supplies and quality, and these problems are forecast to worsen because of projected changes to climate and land use. For example, many managed wetlands in arid regions have become degraded owing to the long-term accumulation of salts and increased salinity associated with evapotranspiration. A primary goal of the USFWS is to provide aquatic habitats for a diversity of waterbirds; thus, wetland managers would benefit from a tool that facilitates evaluation of wetland habitat quality in response to current and anticipated impacts of altered hydrology and salt balances caused by factors such as climate change, water availability, and management actions. A spreadsheet model that simulates the overall water and salinity balance (WSB model) of managed wetland impoundments is presented. The WSB model depicts various habitat metrics, such as water depth, salinity, and surface areas (inundated, dry), which can be used to evaluate alternative management actions under various water-availability and climate scenarios. The WSB model uses widely available spreadsheet software, is relatively simple to use, relies on widely available inputs, and is readily adaptable to specific locations. The WSB model was validated using data from three National Wildlife Refuges with direct and indirect connections to water resources associated with rivers, and common data limitations are highlighted. The WSB model also was used to conduct simulations based on hypothetical climate and management scenarios to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating alternative management strategies and climate futures. The WSB model worked well across a range of National Wildlife Refuges and could be a valuable tool for USFWS staff when evaluating system state and management alternatives and establishing long-term goals and objectives.

Bowdoin National Wildlife Refuge;Long Lake Nationa↗

USGS2005

Hydrologic changes in urban streams and their ecological significance

Urban development modifies the production and delivery of runoff to streams and the resulting rate, volume, and timing of streamflow. Given that streamflow demonstrably influences the structure and composition of lotic communities, we have identified four hydrologic changes resulting from urban development that are potentially significant to stream ecosystems: increased frequency of high flows, redistribution of water from base flow to storm flow, increased daily variation in streamflow, and reduction in low flow. Previous investigations of streamflow patterns and biological assemblages provide a scale of ecological significance for each type of streamflow pattern. The scales establish the magnitude of changes in streamflow patterns that could be expected to produce biological responses in streams. Long-term streamflow records from eight streams in urbanizing areas of the United States and five additional reference streams, where land use has been relatively stable, were analyzed to assess if streamflow patterns were modified by urban development to an extent that a biological response could be expected and whether climate patterns could account for equivalent hydrologic variation in the reference streams. Changes in each type of streamflow pattern were evident in some but not all of the urban streams and were nearly absent in the reference streams. Given these results, hydrologic changes are likely significant to urban stream ecosystems, but the significance depends on the stream's physiographic context and spatial and temporal patterns of urban development. In urban streams with substantially altered hydrology, short-term goals for urban stream rehabilitation may be limited because of the difficulty and expense of restoring hydrologic processes in an urban landscape. The ecological benefits of improving physical habitat and water quality may be tempered by persistent effects of altered streamflow. In the end, the hydrologic effects of urban development must be addressed for restoration of urban streams. ?? 2005 by the American Fisheries Society.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗

USGS2018

Leaf to landscape responses of giant sequoia to hotter drought: An introduction and synthesis for the special section

Hotter droughts are becoming more common as climate change progresses, and they may already have caused instances of forest dieback on all forested continents. Learning from hotter droughts, including where on the landscape forests are more or less vulnerable to these events, is critical to help resource managers proactively prepare for the future. As part of our Leaf to Landscape Project, we measured the response of giant sequoia, the world’s largest tree species, to the extreme 2012–2016 hotter drought in California. The project integrated leaf-level physiology measurements, crown-level foliage dieback surveys, and remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC) to shed light on mechanisms and spatial patterns in drought response. Here we summarize initial findings, present a conceptual model of drought response, and discuss management implications; details are presented in the other four articles of the special section on Giant Sequoias and Drought. Giant sequoias exhibited both leaf- and canopy-level responses that were effective in protecting whole-tree hydraulic integrity for the vast majority of individual sequoias. Very few giant sequoias died during the drought compared to other mixed conifer tree species; however, the magnitude of sequoia drought response varied across the landscape. This variability was partially explained by local site characteristics, including variables related to site water balance . We found that low CWC is an indicator of recent foliage dieback, which occurs when stress levels are high enough that leaf-level adjustments alone are insufficient for giant sequoias to maintain hydraulic integrity. CWC or change in CWC may be useful indicators of drought stress that reveal patterns of vulnerability to future hotter droughts. Future work will measure recovery from the drought and strengthen our ability to interpret CWC maps. Our ultimate goal is to produce giant sequoia vulnerability maps to help target management actions, such as reducing other stressors, increasing resistance to hotter drought through prescribed fire or mechanical thinning, and planting sequoias in projected future suitable habitat, which may occur outside current grove distributions. We suggest that managers compare different types of vulnerability assessments and combine vulnerability maps with other sources of information to inform decisions.

California↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic budget and conditions of Permian, Pennsylvanian, and Mississippian aquifers in the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province

In response to challenges to groundwater availability posed by historic land-use practices, expanding development of hydrocarbon resources, and drought, the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program began a regional assessment of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers in 2013 that incorporated a hydrologic landscape approach to estimate all components of the hydrologic system: surface runoff, base flow from groundwater, and interaction with atmospheric water (precipitation and evapotranspiration). This assessment was intended to complement other Federal and State investigations and provide foundational groundwater-related datasets in the Appalachian Plateaus. A regional Soil-Water-Balance model was constructed for a 160,000-square-mile study area that extended to the topographic divide of all streams originating outside but flowing into areas underlain by Appalachian Plateaus aquifers. The model incorporated soil, landscape, and climate variables to estimate an annual water budget for the 32-year period from 1980 to 2011 and was calibrated using base-flow data estimated by hydrograph separation techniques from 20 streamflow gaging stations across the study area. Over this period, an average of 47 inches per year (in/yr) of precipitation fell on Appalachian Plateaus aquifers. Simulations from the regional Soil-Water-Balance model indicate that only 19 percent of the precipitation or an average 9 in/yr recharged aquifers, and 19 percent resulted in surface runoff to streams. The remaining 62 percent, an average of 27 in/yr of water, was returned to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration. Because withdrawals from aquifers due to pumping equated to less than 1 percent of the water budget, differences in predevelopment and postdevelopment regional water budgets of the Appalachian Plateaus were minimal. Storage changes caused by filling of abandoned coal-mine aquifers and long-term differences in aquifer storage resulting from climate fluctuations constitute a small portion of the overall water budget. The percentage of precipitation that results in recharge, runoff, or evapotranspiration from the landscape varies annually by up to a factor of two depending on temporal changes in prevailing climate conditions and spatial changes in basin characteristics, precipitation patterns, and sources of atmospheric moisture over a large study area. A comparison of water-budget estimates from the regional Soil-Water-Balance model for a dry year (1988) and wet year (2004) showed that evapotranspiration accounts for most of the annual differences in precipitation. As a portion of annual precipitation, evapotranspiration ranged from 69 percent (dry year) to 52 percent (wet year), a range four times greater than the 15 percent (dry year) to 18 percent (wet year) range estimated for recharge. Evapotranspiration as a percentage of precipitation peaks during dry periods, whereas base flow and runoff tend to reach minimum values. During wet periods, this relationship is reversed and base flow and runoff as a percentage of precipitation generally peak while evapotranspiration percentages reach minimum values. Annual recharge in the Appalachian Plateaus reaches a maximum at near 20 percent of annual precipitation, regardless of the severity of wet conditions. Hydrograph separation data from 849 streamflow gaging stations in the study area were used to assess trends in streamflow, base flow, surface runoff, and base-flow index, or ratio of base flow to streamflow, in the Appalachian Plateaus for the period from 1930 to 2011. Annual data anomalies for each of the four variables were individually defined as the annual standard deviation from the mean at all 849 streamflow gaging stations. Annual data anomalies confirm the close relation of annual precipitation to both base flow and runoff components of streamflow, and both components increased during the period of analysis. Around 1970, conditions shifted streamflow from values generally below to above long-term means. At a regional scale, increases in base flow account for most of these observed increases in mean annual streamflow. The independence of the base-flow index to annual climate trends indicate that changes in the components of streamflow of the Appalachian Plateaus are probably in response to shifts in seasonal precipitation or widespread land-use practices. A subset of 77 index streamgages, defined as having 60 or more years of complete record between the years 1930 and 2011 with no more than 20 percent missing data, was selected to show spatial patterns of change in the water budget. Data from the index streamgages showed that the overall trends in base flow are dependent upon the period of evaluation. Long-term (1930–2011) increases in base flow were observed throughout the study area. For two shorter periods (1930–1969 and 1970–2011) trends in base flow were largely negative. In general, spatial patterns of change in streamflow, base flow, and runoff were mixed but generally consistent with prevailing climate patterns and land-use changes.

Alabama, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennslyvania, V↗

USGS2019

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

USGS2014

Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations. In this report, we describe and make available a set of 61 georectified aerial images of the Arctic Coastal Plain (taken from 1948 to 2010) that were obtained by the USGS to inform research objectives of the USGS CAE Initiative. Here, we describe the origins, metadata, and public availability of these images that were obtained within four main study areas on the Arctic Coastal Plain: Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Chipp River, the Colville River Delta, and locations along the Dalton Highway Corridor between the Brooks Range and Deadhorse. We also provide general descriptions of observable changes to the geomorphology of landscapes that are apparent by comparing historical and contemporary images. These landscape changes include altered river corridors, lake drying, coastal erosion, and new vegetation communities. All original and georectified images and metadata are available through the USGS Alaska Science Center Portal (search under ‘Project Name’ using title of this report) or by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov .

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

South Dakota↗

USGS2018

Climatically driven changes in primary production propagate through trophic levels

Climate and land‐use change are the major drivers of global biodiversity loss. Their effects are particularly acute for wide‐ranging consumers, but little is known about how these factors interact to affect the abundance of large carnivores and their herbivore prey. We analyzed population densities of a primary and secondary consumer (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus , and mountain lion, Puma concolor ) across a climatic gradient in western North America by combining satellite‐based maps of plant productivity with estimates of animal abundance and foraging area derived from Global Positioning Systems telemetry data (GPS). Mule deer density exhibited a positive, linear relationship with plant productivity ( r 2 = 0.58), varying by a factor of 18 across the climate‐vegetation gradient (range: 38–697 individuals/100 km 2 ). Mountain lion home range size decreased in response to increasing primary productivity and consequent changes in the abundance of their herbivore prey (range: 20–450 km 2 ). This pattern resulted in a strong, positive association between plant productivity and mountain lion density ( r 2 = 0.67). Despite varying densities, the ratio of prey to predator remained constant across the climatic gradient (mean ± SE = 363 ± 29 mule deer/mountain lion), suggesting that the determinacy of the effect of primary productivity on consumer density was conserved across trophic levels. As droughts and longer term climate changes reduce the suitability of marginal habitats, consumer home ranges will expand in order for individuals to meet basic nutritional requirements. These changes portend decreases in the abundance of large‐bodied, wide‐ranging wildlife through climatically driven reductions in carrying capacity, as well as increased human–wildlife interactions stemming from anthropogenic land use and habitat fragmentation.

Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, Mojave Desert↗

USGS2013

Modeling effects of climate change on Yakima River salmonid habitats

We evaluated the potential effects of two climate change scenarios on salmonid habitats in the Yakima River by linking the outputs from a watershed model, a river operations model, a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model, and a geographic information system (GIS). The watershed model produced a discharge time series (hydrograph) in two study reaches under three climate scenarios: a baseline (1981–2005), a 1-°C increase in mean air temperature (plus one scenario), and a 2-°C increase (plus two scenario). A river operations model modified the discharge time series with Yakima River operational rules, a 2D model provided spatially explicit depth and velocity grids for two floodplain reaches, while an expert panel provided habitat criteria for four life stages of coho and fall Chinook salmon. We generated discharge-habitat functions for each salmonid life stage (e.g., spawning, rearing) in main stem and side channels, and habitat time series for baseline, plus one (P1) and plus two (P2) scenarios. The spatial and temporal patterns in salmonid habitats differed by reach, life stage, and climate scenario. Seventy-five percent of the 28 discharge-habitat responses exhibited a decrease in habitat quantity, with the P2 scenario producing the largest changes, followed by P1. Fry and spring/summer rearing habitats were the most sensitive to warming and flow modification for both species. Side channels generally produced more habitat than main stem and were more responsive to flow changes, demonstrating the importance of lateral connectivity in the floodplain. A discharge-habitat sensitivity analysis revealed that proactive management of regulated surface waters (i.e., increasing or decreasing flows) might lessen the impacts of climate change on salmonid habitats.

Washington↗

USGS2013

Temporal and spatial variability of global water balance

An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [R], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) for the past century indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in R. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, R, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in R during 2000 through 2009 have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in R are the result of substantial increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April through September). Additionally, for the 2000 through 2009 period, the latitudinal distribution of P departures appears to co-vary with the mean P departures from 16 climate model projections of the latitudinal response of P to warming, except in the high latitudes. Finally, changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from the long-term means. However, when put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on a global or hemispheric scale.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2010

Quantifying restoration success and recovery in a metal-polluted stream: A 17-year assessment of physicochemical and biological responses

Evaluating the effectiveness of stream restoration is often challenging because of the lack of pre-treatment data, narrow focus on physicochemical measures and insufficient post-restoration monitoring. Even when these fundamental elements are present, quantifying restoration success is difficult because of the challenges associated with distinguishing treatment effects from seasonal variation, episodic events and long-term climatic changes.2. We report results of one of the most comprehensive and continuous records of physical, chemical and biological data available to assess restoration success for a stream ecosystem in North America. Over a 17 year period we measured seasonal and annual changes in metal concentrations, physicochemical characteristics, macroinvertebrate communities, and brown trout Salmo trutta populations in the Arkansas River, a metal-contaminated stream in Colorado, USA.3. Although we observed significant improvements in water quality after treatment, the effectiveness of restoration varied temporally, spatially and among biological response variables. The fastest recovery was observed at stations where restoration eliminated point sources of metal contamination. Recovery of macroinvertebrates was significantly delayed at some stations because of residual sediment contamination and because extreme seasonal and episodic variation in metal concentrations prevented recolonization by sensitive species. Synthesis and applications. Because recovery trajectories after the removal of a stressor are often complex or nonlinear, long-term studies are necessary to assess restoration success within the context of episodic events and changes in regional climate. The observed variation in recovery among chemical and biological endpoints highlights the importance of developing objective criteria to assess restoration success. Although the rapid response of macroinvertebrates to reduced metal concentrations is encouraging, we have previously demonstrated that benthic communities from the Arkansas River remained susceptible to other novel anthropogenic stressors. We suggest that the resistance or resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to novel stressors may be effective indicators of restoration success that can account for the non-additive (e.g. synergistic) nature of compound perturbations. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗