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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Slope failures and timing of turbidity flows north of Puerto Rico

The submerged carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico terminates in a high (3,000–4,000 m) and in places steep (>45°) slope characterized by numerous landslide scarps including two 30–50 km-wide amphitheater-shaped features. The origin of the steep platform edge and the amphitheaters has been attributed to: (1) catastrophic failure, or (2) localized failures and progressive erosion. Determining which of the two mechanisms has shaped the platform edge is critically important in understanding landslide-generated tsunami hazards in the region. Multibeam bathymetry, seismic reflection profiles, and a suite sediment cores from the Puerto Rico Trench and the slope between the trench and the platform edge were used to test these two hypotheses. Deposits within trench axis and at the base of the slope are predominantly composed of sandy carbonate turbidites and pelagic sediment with inter-fingering of chaotic debris units. Regionally-correlated turbidites within the upper 10 m of the trench sediments were dated between ∼25 and 22 kyrs and ∼18–19 kyrs for the penultimate and most recent events, respectively. Deposits on the slope are laterally discontinuous and vary from thin layers of fragmented carbonate platform material to thick pelagic layers. Large debris blocks or lobes are absent within the near-surface deposits at the trench axis and the base of slope basins. Progressive small-scale scalloping and self-erosion of the carbonate platform and underlying stratigraphy appears to be the most likely mechanism for recent development of the amphitheaters. These smaller scale failures may lead to the generation of tsunamis with local, rather than regional, impact.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

Book chapter↗
USGS1994

Role of olivine cumulates in destabilizing the flanks of Hawaiian volcanoes

The south flank of Kilauea Volcano is unstable and has the structure of a huge landslide; it is one of at least 17 enormous catastrophic landslides shed from the Hawaiian Islands. Mechanisms previously proposed for movement of the south flank invoke slip of the volcanic pile over seafloor sediments. Slip on a low friction de??collement alone cannot explain why the thickest and widest sector of the flank moves more rapidly than the rest, or why this section contains a 300 km3 aseismic volume above the seismically defined de??collement. It is proposed that this aseismic volume, adjacent to the caldera in the direction of flank slip, consists of olivine cumulates that creep outward, pushing the south flank seawards. Average primary Kilauea tholeiitic magma contains about 16.5 wt.% MgO compared with an average 10 wt.% MgO for erupted subaerial and submarine basalts. This difference requires fractionation of 17 wt.% (14 vol.%) olivine phenocrysts that accumulate near the base of the magma reservoir where they form cumulates. Submarine-erupted Kilauea lavas contain abundant deformed olivine xenocrysts derived from these cumulates. Deformed dunite formed during the tholeiitic shield stage is also erupted as xenoliths in subsequent alkalic lavas. The deformation structures in olivine xenocrysts suggest that the cumulus olivine was densely packed, probably with as little as 5-10 vol.% intercumulus liquid, before entrainment of the xenocrysts. The olivine cumulates were at magmatic temperatures (>1100??C) when the xenocrysts were entrained. Olivine at 1100??C has a rheology similar to ice, and the olivine cumulates should flow down and away from the summit of the volcano. Flow of the olivine cumulates places constant pressure on the unbuttressed seaward flank, leading to an extensional region that localizes deep intrusions behind the flank; these intrusions add to the seaward push. This mechanism ties the source of gravitational instability to the caldera complex and deep rift systems and, therefore, limits catastrophic sector failure of Hawaiian volcanoes to their active growth phase, when the core of olivine cumulates is still hot enough to flow. ?? 1994 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS1990

The Ninole Basalt - Implications for the structural evolution of Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii

Lava flows of the Ninole Basalt, the oldest rocks exposed on the south side of the island of Hawaii, provide age and compositional constraints on the evolution of Mauna Loa volcano and the southeastward age progression of Hawaiian volcanism. Although the tholeiitic Ninole Basalt differs from historic lavas of Mauna Loa volcano in most major-element contents (e.g., variably lower K, Na, Si; higher Al, Fe, Ti, Ca), REE and other relatively immobile minor elements are similar to historic and prehistoric Mauna Loa lavas, and the present major-element differences are mainly due to incipient weathering in the tropical environment. New K-Ar whole-rock ages, from relatively fresh roadcut samples, suggest that the age of the Ninole Basalt is approximately 0.1-0.2 Ma, although resolution is poor because of low contents of K and radiogenic Ar. Originally considered the remnants of a separate volcano, the Ninole Hills are here interpreted as faulted remnants of the old south flank of Mauna Loa. Deep canyons in the Ninole Hills, eroded after massive landslide failure of flanks of the southwest rift zone, have been preserved from burial by younger lava due to westward migration of the rift zone. Landslide-induced depressurization of the southwest rift zone may also have induced phreatomagmatic eruptions that could have deposited widespread Basaltic ash that overlies the Ninole Basalt. Subaerial presence of the Ninole Basalt documents that the southern part of Hawaii Island had grown to much of its present size above sea level by 0.1-0.2 Ma, and places significant limits on subsequent enlargement of the south flank of Mauna Loa. ?? 1990 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS1987

Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km3 in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50-100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500-1500 km2. Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792. The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km2 at velocities exceeding 100 m s-1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny. Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms-1 and travel tens of kilometers. When not confined by valley walls, avalanches can affect wide areas beyond the volcano's flanks. Tsunamis from debris avalanches at coastal volcanoes have caused more fatalities than have the landslides themselves or associated eruptions. The probable travel distance (L) of avalanches can be estimated by considering the potential vertical drop (H). Data from a catalog of around 200 debris avalanches indicates that the H/L rations for avalanches with volumes of 0.1-1 km3 average 0.13 and range 0.09-0.18; for avalanches exceeding 1 km3, H/L ratios average 0.09 and range 0.5-0.13. Large-scale deformation of the volcanic edefice and intense local seismicity precede many slope failures and can indicate the likely failure direction and orientation of potential lateral blasts. The nature and duration of precursory activity vary widely, and the timing of slope faliure greatly affects the type of associated eruption. Bandai-type eruptions are particularly difficult to anticipate because they typically climax suddenly without precursory eruptions and may be preceded by only short periods of seismicity. ?? 1987 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS1986

Lateral blasts at Mount St. Helens and hazard zonation

Lateral blasts at andesitic and dacitic volcanoes can produce a variety of direct hazards, including ballistic projectiles which can be thrown to distances of at least 10 km and pyroclastic density flows which can travel at high speed to distances of more than 30 km. Indirect effect that may accompany such explosions include wind-borne ash, pyroclastic flows formed by the remobilization of rock debris thrown onto sloping ground, and lahars. Two lateral blasts occurred at a lava dome on the north flank of Mount St. Helens about 1200 years ago; the more energetic of these threw rock debris northeastward across a sector of about 30?? to a distance of at least 10 km. The ballistic debris fell onto an area estimated to be 50 km2, and wind-transported ash and lapilli derived from the lateral-blast cloud fell on an additional lobate area of at least 200 km2. In contrast, the vastly larger lateral blast of May 18, 1980, created a devastating pyroclastic density flow that covered a sector of as much as 180??, reached a maximum distance of 28 km, and within a few minutes directly affected an area of about 550 km2. The May 18 lateral blast resulted from the sudden, landslide-induced depressurization of a dacite cryptodome and the hydrothermal system that surrounded it within the volcano. We propose that lateral-blast hazard assessments for lava domes include an adjoining hazard zone with a radius of at least 10 km. Although a lateral blast can occur on any side of a dome, the sector directly affected by any one blast probably will be less than 180??. Nevertheless, a circular hazard zone centered on the dome is suggested because of the difficulty of predicting the direction of a lateral blast. For the purpose of long-term land-use planning, a hazard assessment for lateral blasts caused by explosions of magma bodies or pressurized hydrothermal systems within a symmetrical volcano could designate a circular potential hazard area with a radius of 35 km centered on the volcano. For short-term hazard assessments, if seismicity and deformation indicate that magma is moving toward the flank of a volcano, it should be recognized that a landslide could lead to the sudden unloading of a magmatic or hydrothermal system and thereby cause a catastrophic lateral blast. A hazard assessment should assume that a lateral blast could directly affect an area at least 180?? wide to a distance of 35 km from the site of the explosion, irrespective of topography. ?? 1986 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2004

Emplacement mechanisms of the South Kona slide complex, Hawaii Island: Sampling and observations by remotely operated vehicle Kaiko

Emplacement of a giant submarine slide complex, offshore of South Kona, Hawaii Island, was investigated in 2001 by visual observation and in-situ sampling on the bench scarp and a megablock, during two dives utilizing the Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) Kaiko and its mother ship R/V Kairei. Topography of the bench scarp and megablocks were defined in 3-D perspective, using high-resolution digital bathymetric data acquired during the cruise. Compositions of 34 rock samples provide constraints on the landslide source regions and emplacement mechanisms. The bench scarp consists mainly of highly fractured, vesiculated, and oxidized a-a lavas that slumped from the subaerial flank of ancestral Mauna Loa. The megablock contains three units: block facies, matrix facies, and draped sediment. The block facies contains hyaloclastite interbedded with massive lava, which slid from the shallow submarine flank of ancestral Mauna Loa, as indicated by glassy groundmass of the hyaloclastite, low oxidation state, and low sulfur content. The matrix facies, which directly overlies the block facies and is similar to a lahar deposit, is thought to have been deposited from the water column immediately after the South Kona slide event. The draped sediment is a thin high-density turbidite layer that may be a distal facies of the Alika-2 debris-avalanche deposit; its composition overlaps with rocks from subaerial Mauna Loa. The deposits generated by the South Kona slide vary from debris avalanche deposit to turbidite. Spatial distribution of the deposits is consistent with deposits related to large landslides adjacent to other Hawaiian volcanoes and the Canary Islands. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2021

Submarine lava deltas of the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano

Hawaiian and other ocean island lava flows that reach the coastline can deposit significant volumes of lava in submarine deltas. The catastrophic collapse of these deltas represents one of the most significant, but least predictable, volcanic hazards at ocean islands. The volume of lava deposited below sea level in delta-forming eruptions and the mechanisms of delta construction and destruction are rarely documented. Here, we report on bathymetric surveys and ROV observations following the Kīlauea 2018 eruption that, along with a comparison to the deltas formed at Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō over the past decade, provide new insight into delta formation. Bathymetric differencing reveals that the 2018 deltas contain more than half of the total volume of lava erupted. In addition, we find that the 2018 deltas are comprised largely of coarse-grained volcanic breccias and intact lava flows, which contrast with those at Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō that contain a large fraction of fine-grained hyaloclastite. We attribute this difference to less efficient fragmentation of the 2018 ‘a‘ā flows leading to fragmentation by collapse rather than hydrovolcanic explosion. We suggest a mechanistic model where the characteristic grain size influences the form and stability of the delta with fine grain size deltas (Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō) experiencing larger landslides with greater run-out supported by increased pore pressure and with coarse grain size deltas (Kīlauea 2018) experiencing smaller landslides that quickly stop as the pore pressure rapidly dissipates. This difference, if validated for other lava deltas, would provide a means to assess potential delta stability in future eruptions.

Hawaii↗
USGS2014

Geoelectrical structure of the central zone of Piton de la Fournaise volcano (Reunion)

A study of the geoelectrical structure of the central part of Piton de la Fournaise volcano (Reunion, Indian Ocean) was made using direct current electrical (DC) and transient electromagnetic soundings (TEM). Piton de la Fournaise is a highly active oceanic basaltic shield and has been active for more than half a million years. Joint interpretation of the DC and TEM data allows us to obtain reliable 1D models of the resistivity distribution. The depth of investigation is of the order of 1.5 km but varies with the resistivity pattern encountered at each sounding. Two-dimensional resistivity cross sections were constructed by interpolation between the soundings of the 1D interpreted models. Conductors with resistivities less than 100 ohm-m are present at depth beneath all of the soundings and are located high in the volcanic edifice at elevations between 2000 and 1200 m. The deepest conductor has a resistivity less than 20 ohm-m for soundings located inside the Enclos and less than 60-100 ohm-m for soundings outside the Enclos. From the resistivity distributions, two zones are distinguished: (a) the central zone of the Enclos; and (b) the outer zone beyond the Enclos. Beneath the highly active summit area, the conductor rises to within a few hundred meters of the surface. This bulge coincides with a 2000-mV self-potential anomaly. Low-resistivity zones are inferred to show the presence of a hydrothermal system where alteration by steam and hot water has lowered the resistivity of the rocks. Farther from the summit, but inside the Enclos the depth to the conductive layers increases to approximately 1 km and is inferred to be a deepening of the hydrothermally altered zone. Outside of the Enclos, the nature of the deep, conductive layers is not established. The observed resistivities suggest the presence of hydrated minerals, which could be found in landslide breccias, in hydrothermally altered zones, or in thick pyroclastic layers. Such formations often create perched water tables. The known occurrence of large eastward-moving landslides in the evolution of Piton de la Fournaise strongly suggests that large volumes of breccias should exist in the interior of the volcano; however, extensive breccia deposits are not observed at the bottom of the deep valleys that incise the volcano to elevations lower than those determined for the top of the conductors. The presence of the center of Piton de la Fournaise beneath the Plaine des Sables area during earlier volcanic stages (ca. 0.5 to 0.150 Ma) may have resulted in broad hydrothermal alteration of this zone. However, this interpretation cannot account for the low resistivities in peripheral zones. It is not presently possible to discriminate between these general interpretations. In addition, the nature of the deep conductors may be different in each zone. Whatever the geologic nature of these conductive layers, their presence indicates a major change of lithology at depth, unexpected for a shield volcano such as Piton de la Fournaise.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2018

ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations

In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide. The probability of occurrence of such earthquake-induced effects is modelled through a set of geospatial susceptibility proxies and peak ground acceleration. The predictive model is tuned to capture the observations from past events and optimised for near-real-time estimates based on USGS-style ShakeMaps routinely produced by the Swiss Seismological Service. Our emphasis is on the use of high-resolution geospatial datasets along with additional local information on ground failure susceptibility. Even if calibrated on historic events with moderate magnitudes, the methodology presented in this paper yields sensible results also for low-magnitude recent events. The model is integrated in the Swiss ShakeMap framework. This study has a high practical relevance to many Swiss ShakeMap stakeholders, especially those managing lifeline systems, and to other global users interested in conducting a similar customisation for their region of interest.

Natural Hazards↗
USGS1985

Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975-1984

Public statements about volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens include factual statements, forecasts, and predictions. A factual statement describes current conditions but does not anticipate future events. A forecast is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity. A prediction is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. A prediction usually covers a shorter time period than a forecast and is generally based dominantly on interpretations and measurements of ongoing processes and secondarily on a projection of past history. The three types of statements grade from one to another, and distinctions are sometimes arbitrary. Forecasts and predictions at Mount St. Helens became increasingly precise from 1975 to 1982. Stratigraphic studies led to a long-range forecast in 1975 of renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, possibly before the end of the century. On the basis of seismic, geodetic and geologic data, general forecasts for a landslide and eruption were issued in April 1980, before the catastrophic blast and landslide on 18 May 1980. All extrusions except two from June 1980 to the end of 1984 were predicted on the basis of integrated geophysical, geochemical, and geologic monitoring. The two extrusions that were not predicted were preceded by explosions that removed a substantial part of the dome, reducing confining pressure and essentially short-circuiting the normal precursors.

Journal of Geodynamics↗
USGS2012

Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: Scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R 2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

Advances in Geophysics↗
USGS2021

Glacier-related outburst floods

Water bodies impounded by glaciers, moraines, and ice jams on rivers can drain suddenly, with disastrous downstream consequences. Lakes can form at the margins of an alpine glacier or ice cap, on its surface, or at its base. Smaller pockets of water may also be present within some glaciers. In all cases, these water bodies might drain by enlarging subglacial tunnels or by mechanical collapse of the glacier dam. Many formerly stable glacier lakes have failed over the past century, in some cases repeatedly, as Earth’s atmosphere has warmed and glaciers thinned and receded. The peak discharge, duration, and volume of a subglacial outburst flood depend mainly on (1) the geometry and rate of development of the tunnel at the base of the glacier and (2) the size and geometry of the impounded water body. Discharge commonly increases exponentially during the outburst, but ends quickly when the lake empties or when the drainage tunnel is plugged by collapse of the tunnel roof or closes due to plastic ice flow. Some glacier outburst floods result from the mechanical collapse of the ice dam. In such cases, the peak flow is achieved rapidly during the collapse. Outburst floods from glacier lakes attenuate due to temporary storage of floodwaters in channels and on valley floors. Many hazardous lakes are dammed by lateral and end moraines that formed in the past two centuries when valley and cirque glaciers retreated from advanced positions reached during the Little Ice Age. Moraine dams are susceptible to failure because they are steep and relatively narrow, because they comprise loose poorly sorted sediment, and because they may contain ice cores or interstitial ice. These dams generally fail by overtopping and incision. The triggering event may be a heavy rainstorm, strong winds, or an ice avalanche or landslide into the lake that generates waves that overtop the dam. Melting of moraine ice cores and piping are other possible failure mechanisms. Outflow from a moraine-dammed lake increases as the breach enlarges and then decreases as the level of the lake falls. The moraine breach may become armored, preventing further incision, or the hydraulic gradient at the breach may decrease to a point that erosion ceases. Outburst floods from glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes typically entrain, transport, and deposit large amounts of sediment. If the channel is steeper than about 0.10-0.15 and contains abundant loose sediment, the flood likely will transform into a debris flow. Such flows may be larger and more destructive than the flood from which they formed. A period of protracted warming is required to trap lakes behind moraines and create conditions that lead to dam failure. The warming also forces glaciers to retreat, prompting ice avalanches, and landslides that have destroyed many moraine dams.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Wildfire and landscape change

Wildfire is a worldwide phenomenon that is expected to increase in extent and severity in the future, due to fuel accumulations, shifting land management practices, and climate change. It immediately affects the landscape by removing vegetation, depositing ash, influencing water-repellent soil formation, and physically weathering boulders and bedrock. These changes typically lead to increased erosion through sheetwash, rilling, dry ravel, and increased mass movement in the form of floods, debris flow, rockfall, and landslides. These process changes bring about landform changes as hillslopes are lowered and stream channels aggrade or incise at increased rates. Furthermore, development of alluvial fans, debris fans, and talus cones are enhanced. The window of disturbance to the landscape caused by wildfire is typically on the order of 3–4 years, with some effects persisting up to 30 years.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions , submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of many of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise; potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Earth Science Reviews↗
USGS2011

Modeling hydrologic and geomorphic hazards across post-fire landscapes using a self-organizing map approach

Few studies attempt to model the range of possible post-fire hydrologic and geomorphic hazards because of the sparseness of data and the coupled, nonlinear, spatial, and temporal relationships among landscape variables. In this study, a type of unsupervised artificial neural network, called a self-organized map (SOM), is trained using data from 540 burned basins in the western United States. The sparsely populated data set includes variables from independent numerical landscape categories (climate, land surface form, geologic texture, and post-fire condition), independent landscape classes (bedrock geology and state), and dependent initiation processes (runoff, landslide, and runoff and landslide combination) and responses (debris flows, floods, and no events). Pattern analysis of the SOM-based component planes is used to identify and interpret relations among the variables. Application of the Davies-Bouldin criteria following k-means clustering of the SOM neurons identified eight conceptual regional models for focusing future research and empirical model development. A split-sample validation on 60 independent basins (not included in the training) indicates that simultaneous predictions of initiation process and response types are at least 78% accurate. As climate shifts from wet to dry conditions, forecasts across the burned landscape reveal a decreasing trend in the total number of debris flow, flood, and runoff events with considerable variability among individual basins. These findings suggest the SOM may be useful in forecasting real-time post-fire hazards, and long-term post-recovery processes and effects of climate change scenarios.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2007

Massive edifice failure at Aleutian arc volcanoes

Along the 450-km-long stretch of the Aleutian volcanic arc from Great Sitkin to Kiska Islands, edifice failure and submarine debris-avalanche deposition have occurred at seven of ten Quaternary volcanic centers. Reconnaissance geologic studies have identified subaerial evidence for large-scale prehistoric collapse events at five of the centers (Great Sitkin, Kanaga, Tanaga, Gareloi, and Segula). Side-scan sonar data collected in the 1980s by GLORIA surveys reveal a hummocky seafloor fabric north of several islands, notably Great Sitkin, Kanaga, Bobrof, Gareloi, Segula, and Kiska, suggestive of landslide debris. Simrad EM300 multibeam sonar data, acquired in 2005, show that these areas consist of discrete large blocks strewn across the seafloor, supporting the landslide interpretation from the GLORIA data. A debris-avalanche deposit north of Kiska Island (177.6° E, 52.1° N) was fully mapped by EM300 multibeam revealing a hummocky surface that extends 40 km from the north flank of the volcano and covers an area of ∼ 380 km 2 . A 24-channel seismic reflection profile across the longitudinal axis of the deposit reveals a several hundred-meter-thick chaotic unit that appears to have incised into well-bedded sediment, with only a few tens of meters of surface relief. Edifice failures include thin-skinned, narrow, Stromboli-style collapse as well as Bezymianny-style collapse accompanied by an explosive eruption, but many of the events appear to have been deep-seated, removing much of an edifice and depositing huge amounts of debris on the sea floor. Based on the absence of large pyroclastic sheets on the islands, this latter type of collapse was not accompanied by large eruptions, and may have been driven by gravity failure instead of magmatic injection. Young volcanoes in the central and western portions of the arc (177° E to 175° W) are located atop the northern edge of the ∼ 4000-m-high Aleutian ridge. The position of the Quaternary stratocones relative to the edge of the Aleutian ridge appears to strongly control their likelihood for, and direction of, past collapse. The ridge's steep drop to the north greatly increases potential runout length for slides that originate at the island chain.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2008

Processes of coastal bluff erosion in weakly lithified sands, Pacifica, California, USA

Coastal bluff erosion and landsliding are currently the major geomorphic processes sculpting much of the marine terrace dominated coastline of northern California. In this study, we identify the spatial and temporal processes responsible for erosion and landsliding in an area of weakly lithified sand coastal bluffs located south of San Francisco, California. Using the results of a five year observational study consisting of site visits, terrestrial lidar scanning, and development of empirical failure indices, we identify the lithologic and process controls that determine the failure mechanism and mode for coastal bluff retreat in this region and present concise descriptions of each process. Bluffs composed of weakly cemented sands (unconfined compressive strength - UCS between 5 and 30??kPa) fail principally due to oversteepening by wave action with maximum slope inclinations on the order of 65 at incipient failure. Periods of significant wave action were identified on the basis of an empirical wave run-up equation, predicting failure when wave run-up exceeds the seasonal average value and the bluff toe elevation. The empirical relationship was verified through recorded observations of failures. Bluffs composed of moderately cemented sands (UCS up to 400??kPa) fail due to precipitation-induced groundwater seepage, which leads to tensile strength reduction and fracture. An empirical rainfall threshold was also developed to predict failure on the basis of a 48-hour cumulative precipitation index but was found to be dependent on a time delay in groundwater seepage in some cases.

Geomorphology↗