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Geologic interpretations of seismic data Route 128 (Northern Circumferential Highway) cut, and Hopkins Street grade separation stations 1-18 in Wakefield, Mass.

The completion of a segment of the Northern Circumferential Highway, Route 126, in Wakefield, Mass., requires an underpass bridge at Hopkins Street, Station 5+50. The plan of the project shows approximately 1800 feet if approach cuts between stations 1 and 18. In October 1945 a preliminary seismic study was made of a segment of this cut between stations 6+50 and 13+30. Four profiles were made at this time and a report was submitted by Newton E. Chute and Rev. Daniel Linhan (file report of January 15). This work showed a relatively shallow (in general, 6 to 12 feet in depth) somewhat irregular bedrock surface between stations 6+50 and 13+50. That data indicated that much of this segment of the cut will be in bedrock. In order to obtain more complete data for the preparation of detailed estimates on the amount of bedrock to be excavated for this segment of the cut, and also to obtain sufficient data for the unexplored segment of the cut, 21 additional seismic traverses were made in September 1949. The present report contains only the results obtained from this later work. The work was performed as a part of a cooperative program of the Massachusetts Department of Public Works and the United States Geological Survey.

Massachusetts↗

Geology and hydrology of dam sites on the island of St. Croix, Virgin Islands

The Virgin Islands Corporation plans to build a series of small earth dams along some of the streams on the island of St. Croix, and field studies involving the selection and hydrology of possible sites was carried on by the Geological Survey during the months of August and September 1951. The island of St. Croix is the largest of the three principal islands of the Virgin. Islands group owned by the United States. It is about 21 miles long and 6 miles wide near the center and has an area of about 84 square miles. The northwestern part of the island contains mountains that reach a maximum altitude of 1,165 feet; the eastern half of the island is submountainous, containing some hills 600 to 800 feet in altitude. A coastal lowland area containing a few east-west trending marl and limestone hills characterizes the southwestern part of the island. The streams in the east half of the island and along the northwest coast are relatively short and are dry during most of the year. The streams draining the mountains from the south cross the coastal lowland in narrow and shallow ditches. The southeastward drainage from the eastern part of the mountainous area is diverted by Salt River and enters the sea on the north coast of the island. In the headwaters of some streams there is a small flow of water during most of the year that disappears below the surface upstream from or near the foot of the mountains. During most of the year the streams are essentially dry, flowing only after periods of heavy rainfall. In the coastal lowland near Bethlehem the average annual rainfall is about 46 inches. The east end of the island is relatively dry and the precipitation is estimated to be approximately 20 inches annually; the northwestern end of the island receives the most rainfall, probably more than 50 inches annually. Records show that from 1861 to 1876 there was deficient rainfall and the accumulated departure below normal was about 56 inches (fig. 2). From 1876 to 1920 there were numerous years of above -normal precipitation and the departure curve rose nearly 100 inches, to more than 40 inches above normal. From 1936 to 1950 there has been a more or less continuous decline in rainfall, amounting to a net deficiency of 72 inches, or from 44 inches above to 28 inches below normal. These changes in rainfall have a direct effect on the volume of stream flow an island. There are two general rock types on the island. The Mount Eagle volcanics and the intruded diorite are hard, dense crystalline rocks; the rock's underlying the coastal lowland and belt of hills between Salt River and Christiansted are sedimentary rocks, such as marl, limestone, sand, gravel, and clay. The permeability of the crystalline rocks and of the gray clay and basal conglomerate of the Jealousy formation is low and they are water bearing in few places. The Kingshill formation is composed of light-gray clay and light-yellow marl and included beds of limestone. In places the limestone contains solutional openings that yield water to wells. The alluvial sand, gravel, and clay that unconformably overlie the Kingshill marl include permeable beds that yield relatively large quantities of water to wells in a few places. It is evident from the small stream flow that by far the greatest part of the 46-inch average annual precipitation on the island is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration. There are no records of stream flaw or ground-water flow from the drainage basins, but it is estimated that in some years the amount of water lost through evaporation and transpiration may be more than 90 percent of the total water available. It is proposed that a program be started and continued to collect and evaluate data on the hydrology of the island. The purpose of the dam-building program is to retain on the land a part of the water that formerly flowed to the sea and was of no beneficial use. Owing to the lack of hydrologic data, the maximum number of dams needed is not known; consequently, practically all possible sites on publicly owned land and sites that would benefit those lands were studied. Thus, 3 sites were selected in the valley near Little Grange that is a source of supply to the public-supply well field of Frederiksted; 19 sites were selected on or near property owned by the Virgin Islands Corporation; and 4 sites were selected along the Salt River above the public-supply well field of Christiansted. During most of the year the water table is at or below the beds of the streams; consequently, if permeable rocks underlie a pond or dam it is possible that there may be leakage from the pond to the water table. In general, leakage from dam sites underlain by crystalline rocks of the fount Eagle volcanics or clay of the Kingshill marl will be negligible, but leakage from sites underlain by limestone in the Kingshill marl or sand and gravel of the alluvium may be great. Potential leakage at each site selected is discussed.

Virgin Islands↗

Geologic investigations of proposed power sites at Cooper, Grant, Ptarmigan and Crescent Lakes, Alaska

The Geological Survey, as part of its program of the classification of public lands with respect to mineral and water resources, is currently making a systematic study and evaluation of the potential water power sites in Alaska. This report describes the geologic conditions and their relation to possible plans for the development of water power at Cooper, Grant, Ptarmigan, and Crescent Lakes on the Kenai Peninsula near Seward, Alaska.

Alaska↗

Water resources of Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming

The study described in this report is an appraisal of water resources in Grand Teton National Park where hydrologic data are needed for planning water supplies for public use. Water is used in the park for public-water supplies at National Park Service facilities, for commercial and domestic use at guest ranches and private residences, and for irrigation. Public-water supplies in the park utilize both surface and ground water. Some of the surface-water sources are in areas of heavy use by park visitors. Public-health requirements are that only ground water, if adequate in quantity and quality, should be used for public-water supplies in such areas.

Open-File Report↗

Hydrology of sand-and-gravel aquifer in central and southern Escambia County, Florida

The sand-and-gravel aquifer is the only fresh-water aquifer in the Pensacola area. Problems related to development of the aquifer include maximum safe yield, local contamination, local salt-water intrusion, corrosiveness of the water, areas of high iron concentration, and increasing nitrate concentration. The city of Pensacola is seeking hydrologic information, including water-quality data, to plan for future expansion of the water-supply system. This report summarizes the third year's findings of a 6-year study of the sand-and-gravel aquifer. Although the thickness of the aquifer locally exceeds 1,000 feet (300 metres) most of the clean sand layers are no more than 450 feet (140 metres) below land surface. The highest head is at the north edge of the area; the head is drawn down below sea level in areas of heavy pumping. Ground water moves southward from the northern half of the county to be intercepted near Cantonment. Virtually all ground water discharged south of Cantonment derives from local precipitation. The report contains maps showing concentrations of carbon dioxide, nitrate, and iron in water from the aquifer, potentiometric maps, geohydrologic sections, and lithologic and radioactive logs of test holes.

Florida↗

Irrigation-water quality in the Sulphur Creek basin, Yakima and Benton counties, Washington, April 1976 through March 1977

A water-quality-sampling network was designed for the Sulphur Creek basin to observe the effects of farming practices on irrigation. Sediment and nutrient yield, discharge, and water temperature data were collected during the 1976 irrigation season and the following fall and winter. The suspended-sediment yield of the basin during this period was 2.0 tons per acre of irrigated cropland. Only about 3% of the net outflow of sediment occurred during the nonirrigation season. The yield computed by subbasin ranged from 0.7 to 7 tons per acre, depending mainly on land slope, but a high percentage of orchard land in the subbasins was probably also significant in reducing loads. Nutrient outflows during the study period were 1,180,000 pounds of nitrogen and 120,000 pounds of phosphorous. Nitrate-plus-nitrite represent 70% of the nitrogen outflow in the irrigation season and 84% in the nonirrigation season. The monitoring network was discontinued at the end of the study period, due largely to insufficient farmer participation. Network sensitivity in the control subbasins was inadequate to detect the effects of a planned demonstration program of best management practices. (USGS)

Washington↗

Estimated ground-water availability in the Delaware River basin, 1997-2000

Ground-water availability using a watershed-based approach was estimated for the 147 watersheds that make up the Delaware River Basin. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), supports the DRBC's Water Resources Plan for the Delaware River Basin. Different procedures were used to estimate ground-water availability for the region underlain by fractured rocks in the upper part of the basin and for surficial aquifers in the region underlain by unconsolidated sediments in the lower part of the basin. The methodology is similar to that used for the Delaware River Basin Commission's Ground-Water Protected Area in Pennsylvania. For all watersheds, ground-water availability was equated to average annual base flow. Ground-water availability for the 109 watersheds underlain by fractured rocks in Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania was based on lithology and physiographic province. Lithology was generalized by grouping 183 geologic units into 14 categories on the basis of rock type and physiographic province. Twenty-three index streamflow-gaging stations were selected to represent the 14 categories. A base-flow-recurrence analysis was used to determine the average annual 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year-recurrence intervals for each index station. A GIS analysis used lithology and base flow at the index stations to determine the average annual base flow for the 109 watersheds. Average annual base flow for these watersheds ranged from 0.313 to 0.915 million gallons per day per square mile for the 2-year-recurrence interval to 0.150 to 0.505 million gallons per day per square mile for the 50-year-recurrence interval. Ground-water availability for watersheds underlain by unconsolidated surficial aquifers was based on predominant surficial geology and land use, which were determined from statistical tests to be the most significant controlling factors of base flow. Twenty-one index streamflow-gaging stations were selected to represent the 13 categories of predominant surficial geology and land use for the 38 Coastal Plain watersheds. A base-flow-recurrence analysis was used to determine the average annual 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year-recurrence intervals for each group of predominant surficial geology and land use. Average annual base flow for these watersheds ranged from 0.465 to 1.169 million gallons per day per square mile for the 2-year-recurrence interval to 0.178 to 0.670 million gallons per day per square mile for the 50-year-recurrence interval. Estimated 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year annual base-flow-recurrence interval values for each watershed in the Delaware River Basin are considered to be the quantity of ground water available for each watershed over a range of climatic conditions. The recurrence intervals are considered to be relative indicators of climatic difference; the 2-year-recurrence value represents wetter years, and the 50-year-recurrence value represents drier years. The remaining available ground water in each watershed was determined by subtracting current (1997-2000) ground-water withdrawals and consumptive domestic use and adding water recharged by agricultural irrigation and land application of treated-sewage effluent. Ground-water use ranged from 0 to 60.8 percent of available ground water for the 2-year-recurrence interval; it exceeded 25 percent in four watersheds and 50 percent in two watersheds. Ground-water use ranged from 0 to 75.9 percent of available ground water for the 5-year-recurrence interval; it exceeded 25 percent in five watersheds and 50 percent in three watersheds. Ground-water use ranged from 0 to 84.5 percent of available ground water for the 10-year-recurrence interval; it exceeded 25 percent in seven watersheds and 50 percent in four watersheds. Ground-water use ranged from 0 to 103 percent of available ground water for the 25-year-recurrence interval; it exceeded 25 percent in nine watersheds, 5

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

Simulation of Flood Profiles for Catoma Creek near Montgomery, Alabama, 2008

A one-dimensional step-backwater model was used to simulate flooding conditions for Catoma Creek near Montgomery, Alabama. A peak flow of 50,000 cubic feet per second was computed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the March 1990 flood at the Norman Bridge Road gaging station. Using this estimated peak flow, flood-plain surveys with associated roughness coefficients, and surveyed high-water marks for the March 1990 flood, a flow model was calibrated to closely match the known event. The calibrated model then was used to simulate flooding for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods. The 100-year flood stage for the Alabama River also was computed in the vicinity of the Catoma Creek confluence using observed high-water profiles from the 1979 and 1990 floods and gaging-station data. The results indicate that the 100-year flood profile for Catoma Creek within the 15-mile study reach is about 2.5 feet higher, on average, than the profile published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The maximum and minimum differences are 6.0 feet and 0.8 foot, respectively. All water-surface elevations computed for the 100-year flood are higher than those published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The 100-year flood stage computed for the Alabama River in the vicinity of the Catoma Creek confluence was about 4.5 feet lower than the elevation published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The results of this study provide the community with flood-profile information that can be used for flood-plain mitigation, future development, and safety plans for the city.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Cobalt mineral exploration and supply from 1995 through 2013

The global mining industry has invested a large amount of capital in mineral exploration and development over the past 15 years in an effort to ensure that sufficient resources are available to meet future increases in demand for minerals. Exploration data have been used to identify specific sites where this investment has led to a significant contribution in global mineral supply of cobalt or where a significant increase in cobalt production capacity is anticipated in the next 5 years. This report provides an overview of the cobalt industry, factors affecting mineral supply, and circumstances surrounding the development, or lack thereof, of key mineral properties with the potential to affect mineral supply. Of the 48 sites with an effective production capacity of at least 1,000 metric tons per year of cobalt considered for this study, 3 producing sites underwent significant expansion during the study period, 10 exploration sites commenced production from 1995 through 2008, and 16 sites were expected to begin production by 2013 if planned development schedules are met. Cobalt supply is influenced by economic, environmental, political, and technological factors affecting exploration for and production of copper, nickel, and other metals as well as factors affecting the cobalt industry. Cobalt-rich nickel laterite deposits were discovered and developed in Australia and the South Pacific and improvements in laterite processing technology took place during the 1990s and early in the first decade of the 21st century when mining of copper-cobalt deposits in Congo (Kinshasa) was restricted because of regional conflict and lack of investment in that country's mining sector. There was also increased exploration for and greater importance placed on cobalt as a byproduct of nickel mining in Australia and Canada. The emergence of China as a major refined cobalt producer and consumer since 2007 has changed the pattern of demand for cobalt, particularly from Africa and Australasia. Chinese companies are increasingly becoming involved in copper and cobalt exploration and mining in Congo (Kinshasa) and Zambia as well as nickel, copper, and other mining in Australia and the South Pacific. Between 2009 and 2013, mines with a cumulative capacity of more than 100,000 metric tons per year of cobalt were proposed to come into production if all sites came into production as scheduled. This additional capacity corresponds to 175 percent of the 2008 global refinery production level. About 45 percent of this cobalt would be from primary nickel deposits, about 32 percent from primary copper deposits, and about 21 percent from primary cobalt deposits. By 2013, about 40 percent of new capacity was expected to come from the African Copperbelt; 38 percent, from Australia and the South Pacific countries of Philippines, Indonesia, New Caledonia, and Papua New Guinea; 11 percent, from other African countries; 5 percent, from North America; and 6 percent, from other areas.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida

Planning stormwater projects requires estimates of current and future extreme precipitation depths for events with specified return periods and durations. In this study, precipitation data from four downscaled climate datasets are used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the period 2050–89 primarily on the basis of Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The four downscaled climate datasets are (1) the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset, (2) the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) dataset, (3) the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset, and (4) the Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting Model (JupiterWRF) dataset. Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from current to future period—were computed for grid cells from the downscaled climate datasets containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods may be used to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the period 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from downscaled climate datasets. Model culling was implemented to select downscaled climate models that best captured observed historical patterns of precipitation extremes in central and south Florida. Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally greater than one and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were higher for the south-central Florida climate region (1.05–1.55 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) than for the south Florida climate region (1–1.4 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) when considering best performing models for both areas, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme precipitation events.

Florida↗

Geohydrology of stratified drift and streamflow in the Deerfield River basin, northwestern Massachusetts

This report presents the results of a study of the geohydrology of stratified drift and streamflow in the Deerfield River Basin, northwestern Massachusetts. Detailed hydrologic information is needed to plan for the optimal use of ground-water and surface-water resources and for development of new drinking-water supplies in the basin. Sources and percentage of water available for recharge on an annual basis from October 1993 to September 1994, to the fine-grained stratified-drift in a narrow valley bordered by upland till and bedrock were: (1) direct infiltration of precipitation on the valley (30 percent); (2) tributary loss from an upland brook as it crosses the valley (7 percent); and (3) ground- and surface-water runoff from the uplands (63 percent). Seventy percent of recharge was available from upland sources. Seasonal variation in recharge caused changes in ground-water levels and flow directions. In early spring, the direction of flow is toward the valley axis, but in late summer, the direction of flow is nearly parallel to the valley axis. Field observations and results of a ground-water flow simulation indicated that water available for recharge was greater than actual recharge during the spring snowmelt and during intense precipitation events. In 1994, estimates of water available for recharge were greater than actual recharge by 10 percent in March and by 60 percent in April; actual recharge to the valley on an annual basis from October 1993 to September 1994 was 20 percent less than original estimates. A map showing thickness of stratified drift in the Connecticut Valley Lowlands indicates a deep north-south trending buried valley. Maximum thickness of the stratified drift is 385 feet. Interpretation of a seismic-reflection survey indicates fine-grained stratified drift may be underlain by coarse-grained deposits ranging in thickness from 0 to 150 feet. Hydraulic properties of the stratified drift were calculated from ground-water-level fluctuations induced by river stage changes using a ground-water-flow model for a site adjacent to the Deerfield River. A comparison of measured and simulated heads resulted in a vertical riverbed hydraulic conductivity of 3 feet per day, anisotropic ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity of 40:1, and storage of 0.040 and 0.0002 for the unconfined and confined layers of the stratified drift. Hydraulic diffusivity (transmissivity divided by the unconfined storage) at the site is about 168,000 feet squared per day. Streamflows at times of low flow were determined for 27 sites that drain areas ranging from 0.57 to 15.8 percent stratified drift. Streamflows exceeded between 80 and 99 percent of the time were determined for sites on the unregulated tributaries to the Deerfield River. Streamflows per square mile of drainage area were greatest from sites at the downstream ends of the North River-Colrain and the Deerfield River-Charlemont stratified-drift valleys. Flow-duration curves for three continuous streamflow-gaging stations on the regulated Deerfield River were compared to flow-duration curves for three continuous streamflow-gaging stations on unregulated tributaries to show the effects of dam regulation on streamflow. Flow- duration curves constructed using instantaneous discharges for the three regulated gaging stations have flat sections that correspond to the predominant streamflows when water is being released from storage from the dams.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water-quality reconnaissance of surface inflow to Utah Lake

This report on the quality of the major surface-water inflow to Utah Lake was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights. The purpose of the reconnaissance on which the report is based was to obtain information about (1) the general inorganic chemical characteristics of surface water throughout the drainage basins of the major streams that contribute to Utah Lake, (2) the effects of the natural environment and of present water use on the chemical characteristics, and (3) general characteristics of the sediment discharge of selected streams in the basin. This information will be useful in the operation of present water systems and in planning future water development and use. The reconnaissance of inflow to Utah Lake was limited in scope; it did not include intensive study of the effects of municipal sewage, irrigation, industry, or mining on water quality. The principal objective of the study was a general definition of water-quality characteristics throughout the major drainage areas tributary to Utah Lake. A secondary objective was the definition of specific problem areas or stream reaches in which deterioration in water quality was evident.

Utah↗

Studying wind energy/bird interactions: a guidance document. Metrics and methods for determining or monitoring potential impacts on birds at existing and proposed wind energy sites

In the 1980s little was known about the potential environmental effects associated with large scale wind energy development. Although wind turbines have been used in farming and remote location applications throughout this country for centuries, impacts on birds resulting from these dispersed turbines had not been reported. Thus early wind energy developments were planned, permitted, constructed, and operated with little consideration for the potential effects on birds. In the ensuing years wind plant impacts on birds became a source of concern among a number of stakeholder groups. Based on the studies that have been done to date, significant levels of bird fatalities have been identified at only one major commercial wind energy development in the United States. Research on wind energy/bird interactions has spanned such a wide variety of protocols and vastly different levels of study effort that it is difficult to make comparisons among study findings. As a result there continues to be interest, confusion, and concern over wind energy development's potential impacts on birds. Some hypothesize that technology changes, such as less dense wind farms with larger, slower-moving turbines, will decrease the number of bird fatalities from wind turbines. Others hypothesize that, because the tip speed may be the same or faster, new turbines will not result in decreased bird fatalities but may actually increase bird impacts. Statistically significant data sets from scientifically rigorous studies will be required before either hypothesis can be tested.

Book↗

Ultrahigh resolution topographic mapping of Mars with HiRISE stereo images: Methods and first results

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) arrived at Mars on 10 March 2006 and began its primary science phase in November. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on MRO is the largest, most complex camera ever flown to another planet. Plans call for this scanner to image roughly 1% of Mars by area at a pixel scale of 0.3 m during the next Mars year. Among the thousands of images will be hundreds of stereopairs that will provide an unprecedented three-dimensional view of the Martian surface at meter scale. These stereopairs will provide a tremendous amount of information for focused scientific studies, landing site selection and validation, and the operation of landers and rovers. In this paper, we describe our approach to generating geodetically controlled digital topographic models (DTMs) from such stereopairs, our early results, and plans for future DTM production. Our approach to the photogrammetric processing of HiRISE images follows that which we have previously described for the MOC and the Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC). We use the USGS in-house digital cartographic software ISIS to do initial processing, including ingestion, decompression, and radiometric calibration of the images. "Three-dimensional" photogrammetric processing steps, including control and DTM creation and editing, are performed on a photogrammetric workstation running the commercial software SOCET SET (® BAE Systems). Noteworthy departures from past practice are the use of ISIS 3, the object-oriented successor to the older ISIS 2 system, and pre-processing in ISIS to correct geometric complications of the HiRISE images that cannot be modelled in the SOCET sensor model: multiple CCD detectors in the focal plane, optical distortion around an axis far from the detectors, and (ultimately) the small "jitter" motions of spacecraft pointing that distort the images and hence the DTMs. The first HiRISE stereopair analyzed covered the location of the Opportunity rover near the 750-m crater informally named Victoria in Meridiani Planum. This scene was extremely unfavorable for automated stereomatching, with extensive areas that are almost featureless, extremely steep, or both, but these problems were offset by the high quality of the HiRISE imagery, permitting us to obtain a 1 m/post DTM that required only limited interactive editing. Subsequent mapping of the Spirit rover site and a variety of scientifically interesting sites has proven that the greater surface texture found at most places on Mars leads to even better DTMs with even less editing required. We are currently working to refine and streamline our procedures in order to maximize the number of sites that can be mapped and studied in three dimensions with HiRISE.

Conference Paper↗

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Water Resources Research↗

Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks

Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration , and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal, annual adaptation actions for historic buildings across a 30-year planning horizon, (b) quantify trade-offs between different actions and the timing of adaptation actions under constrained budgets, and (c) estimate the effectiveness of budget allocations on the resource value of historic buildings. Our analysis of the model suggests that: (1) funding allocation thresholds may exist for national parks to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historic buildings under climate change, (2) the quantitative assessment of trade-offs among alternative adaptation actions provides generalizable guidance for decision makers about the dynamics of their managed system, and (3) the OptiPres model can identify cost-efficient approaches to allocate funding to maintain the historical value of buildings vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, the OptiPres model, while not designed as a prescriptive decision tool, allows managers to understand the consequences of proposed adaptation actions. The OptiPres model can guide park managers to make cost-effective climate adaptation decisions for historic buildings more transparently and robustly.

Land Use Policy↗

Spatially explicit models of full-season productivity and implications for landscape management of Golden-winged Warblers in the western Great Lakes Region

The relationship between landscape structure and composition and full-season productivity (FSP) is poorly understood for most birds. For species of high conservation concern, insight into how productivity is related to landscape structure and composition can be used to develop more effective conservation strategies that increase recruitment. We monitored nest productivity and fledgling survival of Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ), a species of high conservation concern, in managed forest landscapes at two sites in northern Minnesota, and one site in southeastern Manitoba, Canada from 2010 to 2012. We used logistic exposure models to identify the influence of landscape structure and composition on nest productivity and fledgling survival. We used the models to predict spatially explicit, FSP across our study sites to identify areas of low relative productivity that could be targeted for management. We then used our models of spatially explicit, FSP to simulate the impact of potential management actions on our study sites with the goal of increasing total population productivity. Unlike previous studies that suggested wetland cover types provide higher quality breeding habitat for Golden-winged Warblers, our models predicted 14% greater productivity in upland cover types. Simulated succession of a 9-ha grassland patch to a shrubby upland suitable for nesting increased the total number of fledglings produced by that patch and adjacent upland shrublands by 30%, despite decreasing individual productivity by 13%. Further simulated succession of the same patch described above into deciduous forest reduced the total number of fledglings produced to independence on a landscape by 18% because of a decrease in the area available for nesting. Simulated reduction in the cumulative length of shrubby edge within a 50-m radius of any location in our landscapes from 0.6 to 0.3 km increased FSP by 5%. Our models demonstrated that the effects of any single management action depended on the context of the surrounding landscape. We conclude that spatially explicit, FSP models that incorporate data from both the nesting and postfledging periods are useful for informing breeding habitat management plans for Golden-winged Warblers and that similar models can benefit management planning for many other species of conservation concern.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

Yellow-Billed Cuckoo Distribution, Abundance, and Habitat Use Along the Lower Colorado and Tributaries, 2006 Annual Report

Executive Summary This 2006 annual report details the first season of a 2-year study documenting western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis) distribution, abundance, and habitat use throughout the Lower Colorado River Multi-Species Conservation Plan boundary area. We conducted cuckoo surveys at 55 sites within 17 areas, between 11 June and 13 September. The 243 visits across all sites yielded 180 yellow-billed cuckoo detections. Cuckoos were detected at 27 of the 55 sites, primarily at the Bill Williams River National Wildlife Refuge AZ sites (n = 117 detections) and the Grand Canyon National Park-Lake Mead National Recreation Area AZ delta sites (n = 29 detections). There were also cuckoos at the Gila River-Colorado River Confluence, AZ (n = 9), Overton Wildlife Management, NV area (n = 7), and Limitrophe Division North, AZ (n = 6); however, at these sites the numbers were much lower and very few of these birds were considered to be paired or breeding. The greatest number of detections (n = 79) occurred during the second survey period (3-23 July). In 2006, we confirmed five breeding events, including one nesting observation and sightings of four juveniles; all confirmed breeding was at the Bill Williams River NWR and Grand Canyon NP-Lake Mead NRA delta sites. The breeding status of most of our detections were unknown, however, we observed 17 adult cuckoos carrying nest material or food and 40 cuckoo detections were detected while counter-calling occurred in same area during repeated surveys. We used playback recordings to survey for western yellow-billed cuckoos. Compared to simple point counts or surveys, this method increases the number of detections of this secretive, elusive species. It has long been suspected that cuckoos have a fairly low response rate, and that the standard survey method of using playback recordings may fail to detect all birds present in an area. In 2006, we found that the majority (72%) of cuckoo detections were solicited through playback at all study sites. The number of solicited detections peaked during the first half of July and then declined as the breeding season progressed, while the number of unsolicited detections (cuckoos heard calling before playback was initiated) remained fairly constant. The majority (64%) of cuckoo detections, solicited or unsolicited, were aural; 27 percent were both heard and seen and nine percent were visual detections only. Cuckoos in areas with the largest populations had the highest rate of vocalizations before playback or after the first broadcast. In contrast, more than half the responses at sites with fewer cuckoos (with < 10 detections per site) first occurred after three or more playback recordings. This type of baseline information will be used to help refine the survey protocol for 2007, and to create hypotheses that can serve as the foundation for a full-scale evaluation and optimization of this survey technique. Our preliminary analysis of vegetation data from occupied and unoccupied sites in 2006 focused on general patterns in the distribution and abundance of woody species. The density and composition of woody riparian vegetation varied considerably among the study areas. Much of the variation in tree density was due to the patterns of abundance of trees in the smallest size class (< 8 cm dbh). The dominant tree species at the cuckoo survey sites were cottonwood, willow, and tamarisk. Tamarisk was the most common tree, due to the abundance of small (< 8 cm dbh) individuals. When occupied and unoccupied sites were compared, occupied sites tended to have higher average canopy cover, attributable to higher average cover of the mid and low canopy. The dominant canopy at occupied sites most often consisted of cottonwood or willow trees. In addition, occupied sites in most areas had lower than average total tree density whereas unoccupied sites were denser than average. When densities of trees in different size classes were com

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