Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida

Michelle M. Irizarry-Ortiz; John F. Stamm; Carolina Maran; Jayantha Obeysekera

doi:10.3133/sir20225093

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Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida

Michelle M. Irizarry-Ortiz·John F. Stamm·Carolina Maran·Jayantha Obeysekera

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Abstract

Planning stormwater projects requires estimates of current and future extreme precipitation depths for events with specified return periods and durations. In this study, precipitation data from four downscaled climate datasets are used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the period 2050–89 primarily on the basis of Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The four downscaled climate datasets are (1) the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset, (2) the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) dataset, (3) the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset, and (4) the Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting Model (JupiterWRF) dataset. Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from current to future period—were computed for grid cells from the downscaled climate datasets containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods may be used to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the period 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from downscaled climate datasets. Model culling was implemented to select downscaled climate models that best captured observed historical patterns of precipitation extremes in central and south Florida. Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally greater than one and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were higher for the south-central Florida climate region (1.05–1.55 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) than for the south Florida climate region (1–1.4 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) when considering best performing models for both areas, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme precipitation events.

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Source-reported bounding extent: 24.327076540018634° to 28.98892237190413° latitude; -83.111572265625° to -79.43115234375° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Michelle M. Irizarry-Ortiz, John F. Stamm, Carolina Maran, Jayantha Obeysekera. 2022-10-18. Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225093

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