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Dynamics of land-use change and conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States: environmental and economic implications with linkages to rural community well-being

Rural America has changed dramatically over the last century, from having over half the population living in rural settings to only 20 percent residing in a rural area today, and outmigration of younger populations from rural communities remains a constant issue for local governing officials. A declining tax base and concurrent rising costs for maintenance and repair of aging infrastructure add further challenges to policy decisions. Reduced enrollment has caused school closures or mergers. Farm consolidation and technical advances reduced the demand for local labor. On the positive side, however, record-high commodity prices have amplified farm income to new heights. The increased revenues can lead to farmers spending additional money within the local region, while at the same time increased transportation of products has impacted local infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Such dynamics present challenges for municipal leaders charged with promoting economic development and balanced spending, while at the same time maintaining the way of life and rural character that are so important to area residents. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States covers much of the Northern Great Plains, including parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and a small part of Montana, and extends across a broad swath of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The region is defined largely by its rural character but has experienced extensive land conversion over the last century, with agricultural areas replacing native prairie habitat. Additional pressures arise from oil and gas development, global markets for agricultural production, and increased demands for biofuel feedstocks. Record-high commodity prices increase pressure on the native prairie as farmers look for new cropland acres. The volatility of commodity prices has raised fears over the intensity of land conversion to row-crop agriculture, the economic health and resiliency of rural communities, and ultimately, population dynamics and outmigration of younger generations. Land-use pressures are increased by the exponential growth of oil and gas production in the region, where some 8,200 wells are now in production within the Williston Basin of North Dakota, accompanied by increased population pressures on housing and municipal services. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)--a cropland retirement program with close to 4.8 million acres enrolled in the PPR--faces uncertainty in upcoming legislative actions, with a large majority of property enrollments scheduled to expire by 2017. The CRP historically has provided improved habitat conditions, reductions of soil damage through erosion and loss of nutrients, and sequestration of millions of tons of atmospheric carbon. In turn, wildlife-related recreation levels have increased in many parts of the PPR, with money spent in local communities. Contemporary resource-management and rural-development planning increasingly emphasize the need for diversification and integration of resource-extractive industries with nonmarket-based recreational and amenity values that tie into quality of life. Ultimately, each community is unique in its environmental, social, economic, and fiscal endowments. One rural-development policy may work better in one community than another. In addition, rural-development issues such as migration, job growth, and taxes are diverse in themselves. The goal of this report is to qualitatively and quantitatively discuss the economic impacts of land-use decisions in rural areas, particularly in the PPR.

Professional Paper↗

Groundwater availability of the Northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

Executive Summary The Northern High Plains aquifer underlies about 93,000 square miles of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming and is the largest subregion of the nationally important High Plains aquifer. Irrigation, primarily using groundwater, has supported agricultural production since before 1940, resulting in nearly $50 billion in sales in 2012. In 2010, the High Plains aquifer had the largest groundwater withdrawals of any major aquifer system in the United States. Nearly one-half of those withdrawals were from the Northern High Plains aquifer, which has little hydrologic interaction with parts of the aquifer farther south. Land-surface elevation ranges from more than 7,400 feet (ft) near the western edge to less than 1,100 ft near the eastern edge. Major stream primarily flow west to east and include the Big Blue River, Elkhorn River, Loup River, Niobrara River, Republican River and Platte River with its two forks—the North Platte River and South Platte River. Population in the Northern High Plain aquifer area is sparse with only 2 cities having a population greater than 30,000. Droughts across much of the area from 2001 to 2007, combined with recent (2004–18) legislation, have heightened concerns regarding future groundwater availability and highlighted the need for science-based water-resource management. Groundwater models with the capability to provide forecasts of groundwater availability and related stream base flows from the Northern High Plains aquifer were published recently (2016) and were used to analyze groundwater availability. Stream base flows are generally the dominant component of total streamflow in the Northern High Plains aquifer, and total streamflows or shortages thereof define conjunctive management triggers, at least in Nebraska. Groundwater availability was evaluated through comparison of aquifer-scale water budgets compared for periods before and after major groundwater development and across selected future forecasts. Groundwater-level declines and the forecast amount of groundwater in storage in the aquifer also were examined. Major Findings Aquifer losses to irrigation withdrawals increased greatly from 1940 to 2009 and were the largest average 2000–9 outflow (49 percent of total). Basin to basin groundwater flows were not a large part of basin water budgets. Development of irrigated land and associated withdrawals were not uniform across the Northern High Plains aquifer, and different parts of the Northern High Plains aquifer responded differently to agricultural development. For the Northern High Plains aquifer, areas with high recharge and low evapotranspiration had the most streamflow, and most streams only remove water from the aquifer. Results of a baseline future forecast indicated that groundwater levels declined overall, indicating an overdraft of the aquifer when climate was about average and agricultural development was held at the same state as 2009. Results of two human stresses future forecasts indicated that increases of 13 percent or 23 percent in agricultural development, mostly near areas of previous development, caused increases in groundwater pumping of 8 percent or 11 percent, and resulted in continued groundwater-level declines, at rates 0.3 or 0.5 million acre-feet per year larger than the baseline forecast. Results of environmental stresses forecasts (generated from two downscalings of global climate model outputs) compared with the baseline forecast indicated that even though annual precipitation was nearly the same, differences in temperature and a redistribution of precipitation from the spring to the growing season (from about May 1 through September 30), created a large (12–15 percent) decrease in recharge to the aquifer. For the two environmental stresses forecasts, temperature and precipitation were distributed about the same among basins of the Northern High Plains aquifer, but the amounts were different.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

Occurrence and distribution of volatile organic compounds and pesticides in ground water in relation to hydrogeologic characteristics and land use in the Santa Ana basin, southern California

This report presents an evaluation of the occurrence and distribution of VOCs and pesticides in the Santa Ana ground-water basins in relation to two types of explanatory factors: hydrogeologic characteristics and land use. The Santa Ana Basin is subdivided into the San Jacinto, the Inland, and the Coastal ground-water basins. Most wells sampled were deep and used for public supply. Data from regional studies were used to evaluate the occurrence and distribution of pesticides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in relation to hydrogeologic characteristics and land uses that could potentially explain variations between basins. Additional data from special studies (flow path and aquifer susceptibility) were used to evaluate potential factors affecting water quality for individual basins. The hydrogeologic characteristics evaluated in this report were hydrogeologic setting, ground-water age, depth to the top of the well screen (top of well perforations), and proximity to engineered recharge facilities. Urban land use, agricultural land use, and population density were characterized within a 500-meter radius of sampled wells and at the basin scale. Aquifers in the San Jacinto Basin are generally unconfined, and major land-use categories are urban (33 percent), agricultural (37 percent), and undeveloped (25 percent). Recharge is primarily from the overlying landscape, but engineered recharge is locally important in the Hemet area. VOCs and pesticides were detected more frequently in younger ground water (less than 50 years old) than in older ground water, and more frequently in shallower wells than deeper wells; the numbers of VOCs and pesticides detected also were significantly higher in the younger ground water and in the shallower wells. In the Hemet area of the San Jacinto Basin, VOCs and pesticides were detected more frequently in wells proximal to engineered recharge facilities than in distal wells. These patterns illustrate the importance of proximity to sources of recharge in relation to the occurrence and distribution of VOCs and pesticides in ground water. Aquifers in the Inland Basin also are generally unconfined, and the major land-use category is urban (58 percent), with lesser amounts of agricultural (13 percent) and undeveloped (28 percent) land. Recharge is from engineered facilities that utilize local runoff and imported water and from vertical infiltration. VOCs and pesticides were detected more frequently in younger ground water than in older ground water, and more frequently in shallower wells than deeper wells. The number of VOCs detected per well also was significantly higher in the younger ground water and in the shallower wells. Several solvent plumes extending between 5 and 10 kilometers illustrate the large distances that contaminants travel in basins with intensive use of ground water. Aquifers in the Coastal Basin, in contrast to the other basins, are generally confined. Land use in the basin is largely urban (80 percent), with lesser amounts of agricultural (7 percent) and undeveloped (12 percent) land. Recharge is primarily from engineered facilities that utilize water diverted from the Santa Ana River and imported water. Consequently, VOCs and pesticides were detected more frequently in wells proximal to engineered recharge facilities than in distal wells. These compounds were also detected more frequently in the unconfined area than in the confined area of the basin. In the confined area, the numbers of VOCs and pesticides detected per well were not significantly different in wells with shallower and deeper screens. This distribution reflects the dominance of lateral flow and insulation from overlying land use in the confined aquifers of the Coastal Basin. In the unconfined area of the Coastal Basin, the numbers of VOCs and pesticides detected per well were significantly higher in shallower wells than in deeper wells. VOC and pesticide detections were not statist

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of total nitrogen in the upper Connecticut River basin in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts, December 2002–September 2005

A study of total nitrogen concentrations and loads was conducted from December 2002 to September 2005 at 13 river sites in the upper Connecticut River Basin. Ten sites were selected to represent contributions of nitrogen from forested, agricultural, and urban land. Three sites were distributed spatially on the main stem of the Connecticut River to assess the cumulative total nitrogen loads. To further improve the understanding of the sources and concentrations and loads of total nitrogen in the upper Connecticut River Basin, ambient surface water-quality sampling was supplemented with sampling of effluent from 19 municipal and paper mill wastewater-treatment facilities. Mean concentrations of total nitrogen ranged from 0.19 to 2.8 milligrams per liter (mg/L) at river sampling sites. Instantaneous mean loads of total nitrogen ranged from 162 to 58,300 pounds per day (lb/d). Estimated mean annual loads of total nitrogen ranged from 49,100 to 21.6 million pounds per year (lb/yr) with about 30 to 55 percent of the loads being transported during the spring. The estimated mean annual yields of total nitrogen ranged from 1,190 to 7,300 pounds per square mile per year (lb/mi 2 )/yr. Mean concentrations of total nitrogen ranged from 4.4 to 30 mg/L at wastewater-treatment sampling sites. Instantaneous mean loads of total nitrogen from municipal wastewater-treatment facilities ranged from 36 to 1,780 lb/d. Instantaneous mean loads of total nitrogen from paper mill wastewater-treatment facilities ranged from 96 to 160 lb/d. The median concentration of total nitrogen was 0.24 mg/L at forested sites, 0.48 mg/L at agricultural sites, 0.54 mg/L at urban sites, 0.48 mg/L at main-stem sites, and 14 mg/L at wastewater-treatment sites. Concentrations of total nitrogen at forested sites were significantly less than at all other site types (p<0.05). Concentrations of total nitrogen at agricultural, urban, and main stem sites were not significantly different among each other (p>0.05) but were significantly greater (p<0.05) than at forested sites and significantly less than concentrations at wastewater-treatment sites (p<0.05). Total nitrogen concentrations at wastewater-treatment sites were significantly different from all other site types (p<0.05). Annual yields of total nitrogen ranged from 732 to 1,920 (lb/mi 2 )/yr at forested sites; 1,550 to 2,980 (lb/mi 2 )/yr at agricultural sites; 1,280 to 1,860 (lb/mi 2 )/yr at urban sites that were not directly affected by wastewater effluent; 7,090 to 7,770 (lb/mi 2 )/yr at an urban site directly affected by wastewater effluent; and 1,300 to 2,390 (lb/mi 2 )/yr at main-stem sites. In this study, the mean annual load and yield of total nitrogen at the Connecticut River at Wells River, VT, was estimated at 4.47 million lb/yr and 1,690 (lb/mi 2 )/yr, respectively. The mean annual load and yield of total nitrogen at the Connecticut River at North Walpole, NH, was estimated at 9.60 million lb/yr and 1,750 (lb/mi 2 )/yr, respectively. The mean annual load and yield of total nitrogen leaving the upper Connecticut River Basin, as estimated at the Connecticut River at Thompsonville, CT, was 21.6 million lb/yr and 2,230 (lb/mi 2 )/yr, respectively.

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont↗

Simulations of Ground-Water Flow and Residence Time near Woodbury, Connecticut

Water withdrawn for public use from glacial stratified deposits in Woodbury, Connecticut, is a mixture of water from different source areas, each having a characteristic water-quality signature. The physical processes leading to this mixture were explored using a numerical model to simulate steady-state ground-water source areas and residence times for a public water-supply well (PSW-1) in Woodbury. Upland areas contribute water to the well that is primarily from undeveloped and agricultural land. Valley bottoms contribute water to the well that is primarily from developed land. From 1985 to 2002, 6 percent of the contributing recharge area to the well changed from agricultural and undeveloped to developed land. The pattern of recharge areas and land use causes stratification of ground water by residence time and by characteristic water quality, which is related to land use. As land use changes with time, the water-quality signature of developed land moves deeper into the aquifer. Predicted nitrate concentrations decreased from 1985 to 1995 because of the conversion from agricultural land to developed land, but then began to increase after 1995 because of the conversion of undeveloped land to developed land. Total dissolved solids concentrations, on the other hand, increased from 1985 to 2002 because agriculture is associated with lower total dissolved solids concentrations than is developed land. About 40 percent of the water withdrawn from PSW-1 originated as upland recharge before flowing through glacial deposits in the valley. About 44 percent of the water originated as recharge in either fluvial deposits (mean residence time 7 years) or deltaic deposits (mean residence time 4 years). About 16 percent of the water originated as recharge through storm drains with ground-water discharge (often known as 'dry wells'). The residence time for water that originated as recharge in dry wells is 2 to 4 years, and the mean residence time is 3 years. Dry wells are a fast pathway for water to enter the aquifer and provide a significant amount of water to PSW-1; therefore, PSW-1 is more susceptible to contamination in runoff from the commercial area, which enters the dry wells, than to recharge elsewhere in the area. Water withdrawn from a well is a mixture of waters with different residence times, and a single residence time does not fully characterize the susceptibility of the well to recent contamination. The mean simulated flow-weighted residence time in PSW-1 is 6 years, which compares reasonably well with the apparent residence time measured using tritium/helium data of 6 and 7 years (samples for age dating were collected twice from this well). There are at least two modes to the distribution of ages, one mode with residence times less than 5 years and one mode with residence times greater than 5 years. About 34 percent of the ground-water in PSW-1 is younger than 5 years and 56 percent of the water is from 5 to 9 years. The estimated nitrate loading rate from a single-family septic system is 18 grams per day. If each household in the contributing recharge area contributes nitrate at that loading rate to the well PSW-1, each additional septic system in the contributing recharge area is responsible for a 0.045-milligram-per-liter increase in nitrate at PSW-1 at the current pumping rate. Uncertainty in the predicted contributing recharge area can be propagated through the analysis using a Monte Carlo technique. There is a greater degree of certainty in the delineation of the recharge area near the well, and as one moves from the well toward the recharge areas, the uncertainty in the model increases. The area that possibly contributes water to the well using the Monte Carlo model is much larger than the recharge area delineated using the optimal parameter estimates. Within the probabilistic recharge area, the number of septic systems could be twice the number initially estimated.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulations of ground-water flow and particle pathline analysis in the zone of contribution of a public-supply well in Modesto, eastern San Joaquin Valley, California

Shallow ground water in the eastern San Joaquin Valley is affected by high nitrate and uranium concentrations and frequent detections of pesticides and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as a result of ground-water development and intensive agricultural and urban land use. A single public-supply well was selected for intensive study to evaluate the dominant processes affecting the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Modesto area. A network of 23 monitoring wells was installed, and water and sediment samples were collected within the approximate zone of contribution of the public-supply well, to support a detailed analysis of physical and chemical conditions and processes affecting the water chemistry in the well. A three-dimensional, steady-state local ground-water-flow and transport model was developed to evaluate the age of ground water reaching the well and to evaluate the vulnerability of the well to nonpoint source input of nitrate and uranium. Particle tracking was used to compute pathlines and advective travel times in the ground-water flow model. The simulated ages of particles reaching the public-supply well ranged from 9 to 30,000 years, with a median of 54 years. The age of the ground water contributed to the public-supply well increased with depth below the water table. Measured nitrate concentrations, derived primarily from agricultural fertilizer, were highest (17 milligrams per liter) in shallow ground water and decreased with depth to background concentrations of less than 2 milligrams per liter in the deepest wells. Because the movement of water is predominantly downward as a result of ground-water development, and because geochemical conditions are generally oxic, high nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water are expected to continue moving downward without significant attenuation. Simulated long-term nitrate concentrations indicate that concentrations have peaked and will decrease in the public-supply well during the next 100 years because of the low nitrate concentrations in recharge beneath the urban area and the increasing proportion of urban-derived ground water reaching the well. The apparent lag time between peak input concentrations and peak concentrations in the well is about 20 to 30 years. Measured uranium concentrations were also highest (45 micrograms per liter) in shallow ground water, and decreased with depth to background concentrations of about 0.5 microgram per liter. Naturally-occurring uranium adsorbed to aquifer sediments is mobilized by oxygen-rich, high-alkalinity water. Alkalinity increased in shallow ground water in response to agricultural development. As ground-water pumping increased in the 1940s and 1950s, this alkaline water moved downward through the ground-water flow system, mobilizing the uranium adsorbed to aquifer sediments. Ground water with high alkalinity and high uranium concentrations is expected to continue to move deeper in the system, resulting in increased uranium concentrations with depth in ground water. Because alkalinity (and correspondingly uranium) concentrations were high in shallow ground water beneath both the urban and the agricultural land, long-term uranium concentrations in the public-supply well are expected to increase as the proportion of uranium-affected water contributed to the well increases. Assuming that the alkalinity near the water table remains the same, the simulation of long-term alkalinity in the public-supply well indicates that uranium concentrations in the public-supply well will likely approach the maximum contaminant level; however, the time to reach this level is more than 100 years because of the significant proportion of old, unaffected water at depth that is contributed to the public-supply well.

California↗

Trends in pesticide concentrations in corn-belt streams, 1996-2006

Trends in the concentrations of commonly occurring pesticides in the Corn Belt of the United States were assessed, and the performance and application of several statistical methods for trend analysis were evaluated. Trends in the concentrations of 11 pesticides with sufficient data for trend assessment were assessed at up to 31 stream sites for two time periods: 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Pesticides included in the trend analyses were atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, simazine, metribuzin, prometon, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon. The statistical methods applied and compared were (1) a modified version of the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test (SEAKEN), (2) a modified version of the Regional Kendall test, (3) a parametric regression model with seasonal wave (SEAWAVE), and (4) a version of SEAWAVE with adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q). The SEAKEN test is a statistical hypothesis test for detecting monotonic trends in seasonal time-series data such as pesticide concentrations at a particular site. Trends across a region, represented by multiple sites, were evaluated using the regional seasonal Kendall test, which computes a test for an overall trend within a region by computing a score for each season at each site and adding the scores to compute the total for the region. The SEAWAVE model is a parametric regression model specifically designed for analyzing seasonal variability and trends in pesticide concentrations. The SEAWAVE-Q model accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic trends from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. There was broad, general agreement between unadjusted trends (no adjustment for streamflow effects) identified by the SEAKEN and SEAWAVE methods, including the regional seasonal Kendall test. Only about 10 percent of the paired comparisons between SEAKEN and SEAWAVE indicated a difference in the direction of trend, and none of these had differences significant at the 10-percent significance level. This consistency of results supports the validity and robustness of all three approaches as trend analysis tools. The SEAWAVE method is favored, however, because it has less restrictive data requirements, enabling analysis for more site/pesticide combinations, and can incorporate adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q) with substantially fewer measurements than the flow-adjustment procedure used with SEAKEN. Analysis of flow-adjusted trends is preferable to analysis of non-adjusted trends for evaluating potential effects of changes in pesticide use or management practices because flow-adjusted trends account for the influence of flow-related variability. Analysis of flow-adjusted trends by SEAWAVE-Q showed that all of the pesticides assessed, except simazine and acetochlor, were dominated by varying degrees of concentration downtrends in one or both analysis periods. Atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin—all major corn herbicides, as well as prometon and chlorpyrifos, showed more prevalent concentration downtrends during 1996–2002 compared to 2000–2006. Diazinon had no clear trends during 1996–2002, but had predominantly downward trends during 2000–2006. Acetochlor trends were mixed during 1996–2002 and slightly upward during 2000–2006, but most of the trends were not statistically significant. Simazine concentrations trended upward at most sites during both 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Comparison of concentration trends to agricultural-use trends indicated similarity in direction and magnitude for acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin. Concentration downtrends for atrazine, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon were steeper than agricultural-use downtrends at some sites, indicating the possibility that agricultural management practices may have increasingly reduced transport to streams (particularly atrazine) or, for chlorpyrifos and diazinon, that nonagricultural uses declined substantially. Concentration uptrends for simazine generally were steeper than agricultural-use uptrends, indicating the possibility that nonagricultural uses of this herbicide increased during the study period.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Development and Application of Regression Models for Estimating Nutrient Concentrations in Streams of the Conterminous United States, 1992-2001

Data collected for the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment program from 1992-2001 were used to investigate the relations between nutrient concentrations and nutrient sources, hydrology, and basin characteristics. Regression models were developed to estimate annual flow-weighted concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus using explanatory variables derived from currently available national ancillary data. Different total-nitrogen regression models were used for agricultural (25 percent or more of basin area classified as agricultural land use) and nonagricultural basins. Atmospheric, fertilizer, and manure inputs of nitrogen, percent sand in soil, subsurface drainage, overland flow, mean annual precipitation, and percent undeveloped area were significant variables in the agricultural basin total nitrogen model. Significant explanatory variables in the nonagricultural total nitrogen model were total nonpoint-source nitrogen input (sum of nitrogen from manure, fertilizer, and atmospheric deposition), population density, mean annual runoff, and percent base flow. The concentrations of nutrients derived from regression (CONDOR) models were applied to drainage basins associated with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) River Reach File (RF1) to predict flow-weighted mean annual total nitrogen concentrations for the conterminous United States. The majority of stream miles in the Nation have predicted concentrations less than 5 milligrams per liter. Concentrations greater than 5 milligrams per liter were predicted for a broad area extending from Ohio to eastern Nebraska, areas spatially associated with greater application of fertilizer and manure. Probabilities that mean annual total-nitrogen concentrations exceed the USEPA regional nutrient criteria were determined by incorporating model prediction uncertainty. In all nutrient regions where criteria have been established, there is at least a 50 percent probability of exceeding the criteria in more than half of the stream miles. Dividing calibration sites into agricultural and nonagricultural groups did not improve the explanatory capability for total phosphorus models. The group of explanatory variables that yielded the lowest model error for mean annual total phosphorus concentrations includes phosphorus input from manure, population density, amounts of range land and forest land, percent sand in soil, and percent base flow. However, the large unexplained variability and associated model error precluded the use of the total phosphorus model for nationwide extrapolations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Concentrations, and estimated loads and yields of total nitrogen and total phosphorus at selected water-quality monitoring network stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

To evaluate the State’s water quality, the Kentucky Division of Water collects data from a statewide network of primary ambient stream water-quality monitoring stations and flexible, rotating watershed-monitoring stations. This ambient stream water-quality monitoring network program is directed to assess the conditions of surface waters throughout Kentucky. Water samples were collected monthly for the majority of the stations from 1979 to 1998, which represented agricultural, undeveloped (mainly forested), and areas of mixed land use/land cover. In 1998, the number of water samples collected was reduced to a collection frequency of six times per year (every 2 months) every 4 of 5 years, because a new monitoring network was implemented involving a 5-year rotating Basin Management Unit scheme of monitoring. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet–Kentucky Division of Water, to summarize concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus and provide estimates of total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads and yields in 55 selected streams in Kentucky’s ambient stream water-quality monitoring network, which was operated from 1979 through 2004. Streams in predominately agricultural basins had higher concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) than streams in predominately undeveloped (forested) basins. Streams in basins in intensely developed karst areas characterized by caves, springs, sinkholes, and sinking streams had a higher median concentration of TN (1.5 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) than streams in basins with limited or no karst areas (0.63 mg/L). As with TN, median concentrations of TP also were higher in areas of intense karst (0.05 mg/L) than in areas with limited or no karst (0.02 mg/L). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has recommended ecoregional nutrient water-quality criteria as a starting point for States to establish more precise numeric water-quality criteria for nutrients to protect aquatic life and recreational and other uses of rivers and streams. On the basis of the 25 th percentile of concentration data from reference stations aggregated by ecoregion, the USEPA established recommended water-quality criteria for TN and TP in the two Aggregated Ecoregions (IX and XI) in Kentucky waters. The 25 th percentile median values for TN and TP from this study exceeded the USEPA’s recommendations in both aggregated ecoregions in the agricultural and mixed land-use/land-cover basins, and for TN in the undeveloped land-use/land-cover basins in Aggregated Ecoregion XI. However, the 25 th percentile median values for TN (Aggregated Ecoregion IX) and TP in both aggregated ecoregions did not exceed the USEPA’s recommendations in the undeveloped land-use/land-cover basins. Estimated loads and yields of TN and TP varied substantially among the individual stations. Estimated mean annual yields of TN ranged from 0.10 [tons per year per square mile (ton/yr)/mi 2 ] to 7.2 (ton/yr)/mi 2 , and estimated mean annual yields of TP ranged from 0.02 (ton/yr)/mi 2 to 1.4 (ton/yr)/mi 2 . Estimated mean annual yields of TN and TP were generally highest at stations in predominately agricultural basins, and lowest at stations in undeveloped land-use/land-cover basins.

Kentucky↗

Water Quality of the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River and Tributary Streams, New York and Pennsylvania

Water-quality samples were collected from the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River (UPDE) and its tributaries during the period October 1, 2005, to September 30, 2007, to document existing water quality, determine relations between land use and water quality, and identify areas of water-quality concern. A tiered water-quality monitoring framework was used, with the tiers consisting of intensively sampled sites, gradient sites representing the range of land uses present in the basin, and regional stream-survey sites. Median nitrate and total phosphorous concentrations were 1.15 and 0.01 mg/L (milligrams per liter) for three sites on the mainstem Delaware River, 1.27 and 0.009 mg/L for the East Branch Delaware River, 2.04 and 0.01 mg/L for the West Branch Delaware River, and 0.68 and 0.006 mg/L for eight tributaries that represent the range of land uses resent in the basin, respectively. The percentage of agricultural land varied by basin from 0 to 30 percent and the percentage of suburbanization varied from 0 to 17 percent. There was a positive correlation between the percentage of agricultural land use in a basin and observed concentrations of acid neutralizing capacity, calcium, potassium, nitrate, and total dissolved nitrogen, whereas no correlation between the percentage of suburbanization and water quality was detected. Results of stream surveys showed that nitrate concentrations in 55 to 65 percent of the UPDE Basin exceeded the nitrate reference condition and a suggested water-quality guideline for ecological impairment in New York State (0.98 mg/L) during the spring. Many of the affected parts of the basin were more than 90 percent forested and showed signs of episodic acidification, indicating that the long-term effects of acid deposition play a role in the high nitrate levels. Nitrate concentrations in 75 percent of samples collected from agricultural sites exceeded the suggested nitrate water-quality guideline for ecological impairment. Concentrations of nitrate and total phosphorous in samples collected from agricultural sites also were twice and 25 percent higher than those in samples from reference sites, respectively.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Contributing recharge areas, groundwater travel time, and groundwater quality of the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence, Missouri, well field, 1997-2008

The City of Independence, Missouri, operates a well field in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer. Contributing recharge areas (CRA) were last determined for the well field in 1996. Since that time, eight supply wells have been installed in the area north of the Missouri River and well pumpage has changed for the older supply wells. The change in pumping has altered groundwater flow and substantially changed the character of the CRA and groundwater travel times to the supply wells. The U.S Geological Survey, in a cooperative study with the City of Independence, Missouri, simulated steady-state groundwater flow for 2007 well pumpage, average annual river stage, and average annual recharge. Particle-tracking analysis was used to determine the CRA for supply wells and monitoring wells, and the travel time from recharge areas to supply wells, recharge areas to monitoring wells, and monitoring wells to supply wells. The simulated CRA for the well field is elongated in the upstream direction and extends to both sides of the Missouri River. Groundwater flow paths and recharge areas estimated for monitoring wells indicate the origin of water to each monitoring well, the travel time of that water from the recharge area, the flow path from the vicinity of each monitoring well to a supply well, and the travel time from the monitoring well to the supply well. Monitoring wells 14a and 14b have the shortest groundwater travel time from their contributing recharge area of 0.30 years and monitoring well 29a has the longest maximum groundwater travel time from its contributing recharge area of 1,701 years. Monitoring well 22a has the shortest groundwater travel time of 0.5 day to supply well 44 and monitoring well 3b has the longest maximum travel time of 31.91 years to supply well 10. Water-quality samples from the Independence groundwater monitoring well network were collected from 1997 to 2008 by USGS personnel during ongoing annual sampling within the 10-year contributing recharge area (CRA) of the Independence well field. Statistical summaries and the spatial and temporal variability of water quality in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence well field were characterized from analyses of 598 water samples. Water-quality constituent groups include dissolved oxygen and physical properties, nutrients, major ions and trace elements, wastewater indicator compounds, fuel compounds, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), alachlor, and atrazine. The Missouri Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (SMCL) for iron was exceeded in almost all monitoring wells. The Missouri Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for arsenic was exceeded 32 times in samples from monitoring wells. The MCL for barium was exceeded five times in samples from one monitoring well. The SMCL for manganese was exceeded 160 times in samples from all monitoring wells and the combined well-field sample. The most frequently detected wastewater indicator compounds were N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), phenol, caffeine, and metolachlor. The most frequently detected fuel compounds were toluene and benzene. Alachlor was detected in 22 samples and atrazine was detected in 37 samples and the combined well-field sample. The MCL for atrazine was exceeded in one sample from one monitoring well. Samples from monitoring wells with median concentrations of total inorganic nitrogen larger than 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) are located near agricultural land and may indicate that agricultural land practices are the source of nitrogen to groundwater. Largest median values of specific conductance; total inorganic nitrogen; dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, iron, arsenic, manganese, bicarbonate, and sulfate and detections of wastewater indicator compounds generally were in water samples from monitoring wells with CRAs that intersect the south bank of the Missouri River. Zones of higher specific conductance were located just upstream from the Independence well field at south-bank outfalls from wastewater treatment plants, the Blue River, and the south bank of the Missouri River near the closed oil refinery. The long-term presence of these south-bank outfalls and the large specific conductance indicate that the surface water at the south bank of the Missouri River near the Independence well field may have consistently higher dissolved solids and nutrients that can be induced into the aquifer by pumping. Large median concentrations of sodium and chloride from samples from monitoring wells may be the result of road salt use on State Highway 291 or from Mill Creek, which drains the uplands south of the Independence well field. Large median concentrations of arsenic in samples from some monitoring well nests are most likely associated with dissolution of iron and sulfide minerals and fluctuation between oxidizing and reducing conditions. Largest median concentrations for arsenic are in the shallow depth interval where fluctuations between oxidizing and reducing conditions occur. Median concentrations of iron are large in all monitoring wells and are most likely caused by the interaction between fluctuating oxidizing and reducing conditions and siderite and ferric hydroxide. Spatial and temporal trends are not evident from the fuel compounds or total BTEX sample results. Alachlor and atrazine were detected in most monitoring wells and atrazine was detected more often than alachlor. The source of alachlor and atrazine in groundwater near the Independence well field is most likely from nearby agricultural land management practices and (or) the Missouri River. Many of the samples from monitoring wells with alachlor or atrazine detections greater than 10 percent have contributing recharge areas that intersect either agricultural land or the Missouri River bed.

Missouri↗

Trace elements and radon in groundwater across the United States, 1992-2003

Trace-element concentrations in groundwater were evaluated for samples collected between 1992 and 2003 from aquifers across the United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. This study describes the first comprehensive analysis of those data by assessing occurrence (concentrations above analytical reporting levels) and by comparing concentrations to human-health benchmarks (HHBs). Data from 5,183 monitoring and drinking-water wells representing more than 40 principal and other aquifers in humid and dry regions and in various land-use settings were used in the analysis. Trace elements measured include aluminum (Al), antimony (Sb), arsenic (As), barium (Ba), beryllium (Be), boron (B), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), silver (Ag), strontium (Sr), thallium (Tl), uranium (U), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn). Radon (Rn) gas also was measured and is included in the data analysis. Climate influenced the occurrence and distribution of trace elements in groundwater whereby more trace elements occurred and were found at greater concentrations in wells in drier regions of the United States than in humid regions. In particular, the concentrations of As, Ba, B, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Se, Sr, U, V, and Zn were greater in the drier regions, where processes such as chemical evolution, ion complexation, evaporative concentration, and redox (oxidation-reduction) controls act to varying degrees to mobilize these elements. Al, Co, Fe, Pb, and Mn concentrations in groundwater were greater in humid regions of the United States than in dry regions, partly in response to lower groundwater pH and (or) more frequent anoxic conditions. In groundwater from humid regions, concentrations of Cu, Pb, Rn, and Zn were significantly greater in drinking-water wells than in monitoring wells. Samples from drinking-water wells in dry regions had greater concentrations of As, Ba, Pb, Li, Sr, V, and Zn, than samples from monitoring wells. In humid regions, however, concentrations of most trace elements were greater in monitoring wells than in drinking-water wells; the exceptions were Cu, Pb, Zn, and Rn. Cu, Pb, and Zn are common trace elements in pumps and pipes used in the construction of drinking-water wells, and contamination from these sources may have contributed to their concentrations. Al, Sb, Ba, B, Cr, Co, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Se, Sr, and U concentrations were all greater in monitoring wells than in drinking-water wells in humid regions. Groundwater from wells in agricultural settings had greater concentrations of As, Mo, and U than groundwater from wells in urban settings, possibly owing to greater pH in the agricultural wells. Significantly greater concentrations of B, Cr, Se, Ag, Sr, and V also were found in agricultural wells in dry regions. Groundwater from dry-region urban wells had greater concentrations of Co, Fe, Pb, Li, Mn, and specific conductance than groundwater from agricultural wells. The geologic composition of aquifers and aquifer geochemistry are among the major factors affecting trace-element occurrence. Trace-element concentrations in groundwater were characterized in aquifers from eight major groups based on geologic material, including (1) unconsolidated sand and gravel; (2) glacial unconsolidated sand and gravel; (3) semiconsolidated sand; (4) sandstone; (5) sandstone and carbonate rock; (6) carbonate rock; (7) basaltic and other volcanic rock; and (8) crystalline rock. The majority of groundwater samples and the largest percentages of exceedences of HHBs were in the glacial and nonglacial unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers; in these aquifers, As, Mn, and U are the most common trace elements exceeding HHBs. Overall, 19 percent of wells (962 of 5,097) exceeded an HHB for at least one trace element. The trace elements with HHBs included in this summary were Sb, As, Ba, Be, B, Cd, Cr,

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Characterization of major-ion chemistry and nutrients in headwater streams along the Appalachian National Scenic Trail and within adjacent watersheds, Maine to Georgia

An inventory of water-quality data on field parameters, major ions, and nutrients provided a summary of water quality in headwater (first- and second-order) streams within watersheds along the Appalachian National Scenic Trail (Appalachian Trail). Data from 1,817 sampling sites in 831 catchments were used for the water-quality summary. Catchment delineations from NHDPlus were used as the fundamental geographic units for this project. Criteria used to evaluate sampling sites for inclusion were based on selected physical attributes of the catchments adjacent to the Appalachian Trail, including stream elevation, percentage of developed land cover, and percentage of agricultural land cover. The headwater streams of the Appalachian Trail are generally dilute waters, with low pH, low acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), and low concentrations of nutrients. The median pH value was slightly acidic at 6.7; the median specific conductance value was 23.6 microsiemens per centimeter, and the median ANC value was 98.7 milliequivalents per liter (&mu;eq/L). Median concentrations of cations (calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium) were each less than 1.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), and median concentrations of anions (bicarbonate, chloride, fluoride, sulfate, and nitrate) were less than 10 mg/L. Differences in water-quality constituent levels along the Appalachian Trail may be related to elevation, atmospheric deposition, geology, and land cover. Spatial variations were summarized by ecological sections (ecosections) developed by the U.S. Forest Service. Specific conductance, pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate) were all negatively correlated with elevation. The highest elevation ecosections (White Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, and Allegheny Mountains) had the lowest pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions. The lowest elevation ecosections (Lower New England and Hudson Valley) generally had the highest pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions. The geology in discrete portions of these two ecosections was classified as containing carbonate minerals which has likely influenced the chemical character of the streamwater. Specific conductance, pH, ANC, and concentrations of major ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate) were all positively correlated with percentages of developed and agricultural land uses at the lower elevations of the central region of the Appalachian Trail (including the Green-Taconic-Berkshire Mountains, Lower New England, Hudson Valley, and Northern Ridge and Valley ecosections). The distinctly different chemical character of the streams in the central sections of the Appalachian Trail is likely related to the lower elevations, the presence of carbonate minerals in the geology, higher percentages of developed and agricultural land uses, and possibly the higher inputs of sulfate and nitrate from atmospheric deposition. Acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate are important influences on the acid-base chemistry of the surface waters of the Appalachian Trail. Atmospheric deposition estimates are consistently high (more than 18 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for sulfate, and more than 16 kg/ha for nitrate) at both the highest and lowest elevations. However, the lowest elevation (Green-Taconic-Berkshire Mountains, Lower New England, Hudson Valley, Northern Glaciated Allegheny Plateau, and Northern Ridge and Valley ecosections) included the largest spatial area of sustained high estimates of atmospheric deposition. Calcium-bicarbonate was the most frequently calculated water type in the Lower New England and Hudson Valley ecosections. In the northern and southern sections of the Appalachian Trail mix-cation water types were most prevalent and sulfate was the predominate anion. The predominance of the sulfate anion in the surface waters of the northern and southern ecosections likely reflects the influence of sulfate deposition. Although the central portion of the Appalachian Trail has the largest spatial area of high atmospheric acid deposition, the lower ionic strength waters in the northern and southern ecosections of the Appalachian Trail may have been more adversely affected by acid deposition. The low ionic strength of the streams in the White Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, and Allegheny Mountains ecosections makes parts of these regions susceptible to seasonal or event-driven episodic acidification, which can be detrimental to health of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Median catchment ANC values were classified into three groups - acidic, sensitive, and insensitive. The White Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, and Allegheny Mountains ecosections included the highest frequency of catchments classified as acidic or sensitive. More than 56 percent of the catchments from the White Mountains ecosection were classified as sensitive to acidic inputs. In the Blue Ridge ecosection, 1.6 percent of the catchments were classified as acidic, and 38.2 percent of the catchments were classified as sensitive to acidic inputs. In the Allegheny Mountains ecosection, 17.6 percent of the catchments were classified as acidic, and 29.4 percent of the catchments were classified as sensitive to acidic inputs. Median concentrations of nitrogen species were less than 0.4 mg/L, and median concentrations of total phosphorus were less than 0.02 mg/L along the Appalachian Trail. A comparison of median catchment concentrations of nutrients to estimated national background concentrations demonstrated that concentrations along the Appalachian Trail are generally lower. A comparison of median concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) nutrient criteria for the Eastern U.S. ecoregions showed that the concentrations of total nitrogen in the northern section of the Appalachian Trail were generally higher than the USEPA criterion. Similarly, median concentrations of total phosphorus in the southern regions of the Appalachian Trail were approximately twice as high as USEPA criteria. Sections of the Appalachian Trail are adjacent to modest amounts of agricultural and developed land areas. These nonforested land areas may be contributing to the percentage of catchments in which concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus are higher than USEPA nutrient ecoregion criteria.

Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryla↗

Documentation of methods and inventory of irrigation data collected for the 2000 and 2005 U.S. Geological Survey Estimated use of water in the United States, comparison of USGS-compiled irrigation data to other sources, and recommendations for future compilations

Every five years since 1950, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Use Information Program (NWUIP) has compiled water-use information in the United States and published a circular report titled "Estimated use of water in the United States," which includes estimates of water withdrawals by State, sources of water withdrawals (groundwater or surface water), and water-use category (irrigation, public supply, industrial, thermoelectric, and so forth). This report discusses the impact of important considerations when estimating irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals, including estimates of conveyance loss, irrigation-system efficiencies, pasture, horticulture, golf courses, and double cropping. This report also documents the methods and data sources used by the USGS Water Science Centers (WSCs) for estimating irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals reported in the 2000 and 2005 USGS 5-year water-use compilations. For the 2005 USGS water-use compilation, the most common sources used by WSCs for obtaining irrigated crop acreage were the 2002 Census of Agriculture, 2003 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey (FRIS), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), universities, and local and State agencies. In this report, the authors compare USGS-compiled irrigated acreage to Census of Agriculture- and FRIS- reported irrigated acreage. Nationwide irrigated acreage increased from the 1997 to 2007 Census of Agriculture estimates by about 1 percent and from the 1998 to 2008 FRIS estimates by about 9 percent. Conversely, total irrigated acreage decreased from the 2000 to 2005 USGS water-use compilations by about 2 percent. An indirect method for estimating irrigation withdrawals is presented and results are compared to the 2005 USGS-reported irrigation withdrawals for selected States. This method is meant to demonstrate a way to check data reported or received from a third party, if metered data are unavailable. Of the 11 States where this method was applied, 8 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were within 15 percent of what was reported in the 2005 water-use compilation, and 3 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were more than 20 percent of what was reported in 2005. Recommendations for improving estimates of irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals also are presented in this report. Conveyance losses and irrigation-system efficiencies should be considered in order to achieve a more accurate representation of irrigation withdrawals. Better documentation of data sources and methods used can help lead to more consistent information in future irrigation water-use compilations. Finally, a summary of data sources and methods used to estimate irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals for the 2000 and 2005 compilations for each WSC is presented in appendix 1.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater simulation and management models for the upper Klamath Basin, Oregon and California

The upper Klamath Basin encompasses about 8,000 square miles, extending from the Cascade Range east to the Basin and Range geologic province in south-central Oregon and northern California. The geography of the basin is dominated by forested volcanic uplands separated by broad interior basins. Most of the interior basins once held broad shallow lakes and extensive wetlands, but most of these areas have been drained or otherwise modified and are now cultivated. Major parts of the interior basins are managed as wildlife refuges, primarily for migratory waterfowl. The permeable volcanic bedrock of the upper Klamath Basin hosts a substantial regional groundwater system that provides much of the flow to major streams and lakes that, in turn, provide water for wildlife habitat and are the principal source of irrigation water for the basin's agricultural economy. Increased allocation of surface water for endangered species in the past decade has resulted in increased groundwater pumping and growing interest in the use of groundwater for irrigation. The potential effects of increased groundwater pumping on groundwater levels and discharge to springs and streams has caused concern among groundwater users, wildlife and Tribal interests, and State and Federal resource managers. To provide information on the potential impacts of increased groundwater development and to aid in the development of a groundwater management strategy, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Oregon Water Resources Department and the Bureau of Reclamation, has developed a groundwater model that can simulate the response of the hydrologic system to these new stresses. The groundwater model was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW finite-difference modeling code and calibrated using inverse methods to transient conditions from 1989 through 2004 with quarterly stress periods. Groundwater recharge and agricultural and municipal pumping are specified for each stress period. All major streams and most major tributaries for which a substantial part of the flow comes from groundwater discharge are included in the model. Groundwater discharge to agricultural drains, evapotranspiration from aquifers in areas of shallow groundwater, and groundwater flow to and from adjacent basins also are simulated in key areas. The model has the capability to calculate the effects of pumping and other external stresses on groundwater levels, discharge to streams, and other boundary fluxes, such as discharge to drains. Historical data indicate that the groundwater system in the upper Klamath Basin fluctuates in response to decadal climate cycles, with groundwater levels and spring flows rising and declining in response to wet and dry periods. Data also show that groundwater levels fluctuate seasonally and interannually in response to groundwater pumping. The most prominent response is to the marked increase in groundwater pumping starting in 2001. The calibrated model is able to simulate observed decadal-scale climate-driven fluctuations in the groundwater system as well as observed shorter-term pumping-related fluctuations. Example model simulations show that the timing and location of the effects of groundwater pumping vary markedly depending on the pumping location. Pumping from wells close (within a few miles) to groundwater discharge features, such as springs, drains, and certain streams, can affect those features within weeks or months of the onset of pumping, and the impacts can be essentially fully manifested in several years. Simulations indicate that seasonal variations in pumping rates are buffered by the groundwater system, and peak impacts are closer to mean annual pumping rates than to instantaneous rates. Thus, pumping effects are, to a large degree, spread out over the entire year. When pumping locations are distant (more than several miles) from discharge features, the effects take many years or decades to fully impact those features, and much of the pumped water comes from groundwater storage over a broad geographic area even after two decades. Moreover, because the effects are spread out over a broad area, the impacts to individual features are much smaller than in the case of nearby pumping. Simulations show that the discharge features most affected by pumping in the area of the Bureau of Reclamation's Klamath Irrigation Project are agricultural drains, and impacts to other surface-water features are small in comparison. A groundwater management model was developed that uses techniques of constrained optimization along with the groundwater flow model to identify the optimal strategy to meet water user needs while not violating defined constraints on impacts to groundwater levels and streamflows. The coupled groundwater simulation-optimization models were formulated to help identify strategies to meet water demand in the upper Klamath Basin. The models maximize groundwater pumping while simultaneously keeping the detrimental impacts of pumping on groundwater levels and groundwater discharge within prescribed limits. Total groundwater withdrawals were calculated under alternative constraints for drawdown, reductions in groundwater discharge to surface water, and water demand to understand the potential benefits and limitations for groundwater development in the upper Klamath Basin. The simulation-optimization model for the upper Klamath Basin provides an improved understanding of how the groundwater and surface-water system responds to sustained groundwater pumping within the Bureau of Reclamation's Klamath Project. Optimization model results demonstrate that a certain amount of supplemental groundwater pumping can occur without exceeding defined limits on drawdown and stream capture. The results of the different applications of the model demonstrate the importance of identifying constraint limits in order to better define the amount and distribution of groundwater withdrawal that is sustainable.

Oregon;California↗

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contributions to wildlife habitat, management issues, challenges and policy choices--an annotated bibliography

The following bibliography presents brief summaries of documents relevant to Conservation Reserve Program relations to wildlife habitat, habitat management in agriculturally dominated landscapes, and conservation policies potentially affecting wildlife habitats in agricultural ecosystems. Because the literature summaries furnished provide only sweeping overviews, users are urged to obtain and evaluate those papers appearing useful to obtain a more complete understanding of study findings and their implications to conservation in agricultural ecosystems. The bibliography contains references to reports that reach beyond topics that directly relate to the Conservation Reserve Program. Sections addressing grassland management and landowner surveys/opinions, for example, furnish information useful for enhancing development and administration of conservation policies affecting lands beyond those enrolled in conservation programs. Some sections of the bibliography (for example, agricultural conservation policy, economics, soils) are far from inclusive of all relevant material written on the subject. Hopefully, these sections will serve as fundamental introductions to related issues. In a few instances, references may be presented in more than one section of the bibliography. For example, individual papers specifically addressing both non-game and game birds are included in respective sections of the bibliography. Duplication of citations and associated notes has, however, been kept to a minimum.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Surface-water salinity in the Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, water years 1989 through 2007

Elevated levels of dissolved solids in water (salinity) can result in numerous and costly issues for agricultural, industrial, and municipal water users. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-320) authorized planning and construction of salinity-control projects in the Colorado River Basin. One of the first projects was the Lower Gunnison Unit, a project to mitigate salinity in the Lower Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basins. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study to quantify changes in salinity in the Gunnison River Basin. Trends in salinity concentration and load during the period water years (WY) 1989 through 2004 (1989-2004) were determined for 15 selected streamflow-gaging stations in the Gunnison River Basin. Additionally, trends in salinity concentration and load during the period WY1989 through 2007 (1989-2007) were determined for 5 of the 15 sites for which sufficient data were available. Trend results also were used to identify regions in the Lower Gunnison River Basin (downstream from the Gunnison Tunnel) where the largest changes in salinity loads occur. Additional sources of salinity, including residential development (urbanization), changes in land cover, and natural sources, were estimated within the context of the trend results. The trend results and salinity loads estimated from trends testing also were compared to USBR and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) estimates of off-farm and on-farm salinity reduction from salinity-control projects in the basin. Finally, salinity from six additional sites in basins that are not affected by irrigated agriculture or urbanization was monitored from WY 2008 to 2010 to quantify what portion of salinity may be from nonagricultural or natural sources. In the Upper Gunnison area, which refers to Gunnison River Basin above the site located on the Gunnison River below the Gunnison Tunnel, estimated mean annual salinity load was 110,000 tons during WY 1989-2004. Analysis of both study periods (WY 1989-2004 and WY 1989-2007) showed an initial decrease in salinity load with a minimum in 1997. The net change over either study period was only significant during WY 1989-2007. Salinity load significantly decreased at the Gunnison River near Delta by 179,000 tons during WY 1989-2004. Just downstream, the Uncompahgre River enters the Gunnison River where there also was a highly significant decrease in salinity load of 55,500 tons. The site that is located at the mouth of the study area is the Gunnison River near Grand Junction where the decrease was the largest. Salinity loads decreased by 247,000 tons during WY 1989-2004 at this site though the decrease attenuated by 2007 and the net change was a decrease of 207,000 tons. The trend results presented in this study indicate that the effect of urbanization on salinity loads is difficult to discern from the effects of irrigated agriculture and that natural sources contribute a fraction of the total salinity load for the entire basin. Based on the calculated yields and geology, 23-63 percent of the estimated annual salinity load was from natural sources at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction during WY 1989-2007. The largest changes in salinity load occurred at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction as well as the two sites located in Delta: the Gunnison River at Delta and the Uncompahgre River at Delta. Those three sites, especially the two sites at Delta, were the most affected by irrigated agriculture, which was observed in the estimated mean annual loads. Irrigated acreage, especially acreage underlain by Mancos Shale, is the target of salinity-control projects intended to decrease salinity loads. The NRCS and the USBR have done the majority of salinity control work in the Lower Gunnison area of the Gunnison River Basin, and the focus has been in the Uncompahgre River Basin and in portions of the Lower Gunnison River Basin (downstream from the Gunnison Tunnel). According to the estimates from the USBR and NRCS, salinity-control projects may be responsible for a reduction of 117,300 tons of salinity as of 2004 and 142,000 tons as of 2007 at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo. (streamflow-gaging station 09152500). USBR and NRCS estimates account for all but 130,000 tons in 2004 and 65,000 tons in 2007 of salinity load reduction. The additional reduction could be a reduction in natural salt loading to the streams because of land-cover changes during the study period. It is possible also that the USBR and NRCS have underestimated changes in salinity loads as a result of the implementation of salinity-control projects.

Colorado↗

Variability in stream chemistry in relation to urban development and biological condition in seven metropolitan areas of the United States, 1999-2004

Beginning in 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program investigated the effects of urban development on stream ecosystems in nine metropolitan study areas across the United States. In seven of these study areas, stream-chemistry samples were collected every other month for 1 year at 6 to 10 sites. Within a study area, the sites collectively represented a gradient of urban development from minimally to highly developed watersheds, based on the percentage of urban land cover; depending on study area, the land cover before urban development was either forested or agricultural. The stream-chemistry factors measured in the samples were total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chloride, and pesticide toxicity. These data were used to characterize the stream-chemistry factors in four ways (hereafter referred to as characterizations)&mdash;seasonal high-flow value, seasonal low-flow value, the median value (representing a single integrated value of the factor over the year), and the standard deviation of values (representing the variation of the factor over the year). Aquatic macroinvertebrate communities were sampled at each site to infer the biological condition of the stream based on the relative sensitivity of the community to environmental stressors. A Spearman correlation analysis was used to evaluate relations between (1) urban development and each characterization of the stream-chemistry factors and (2) the biological condition of a stream and the different characterizations of chloride and pesticide toxicity. Overall, the study areas where the land cover before urban development was primarily forested had a greater number of moderate and strong relations compared with the study areas where the land cover before urban development was primarily agriculture; this was true when urban development was correlated with the stream-chemistry factors (except chloride) and when chloride and pesticide toxicity was correlated with the biological condition. Except for primarily phosphorus in two study areas, stream-chemistry factors generally increased with urban development, and among the different characterizations, the median value typically indicated the strongest relations. The variation in stream-chemistry factors throughout the year generally increased with urban development, indicating that water quality became less consistent as watersheds were developed. In study areas with high annual snow fall, the variation in chloride concentrations throughout the year was particularly strongly related to urban development, likely a result of road salt applications during the winter. The relations of the biological condition to chloride and pesticide toxicity were calculated irrespective of urban development, but the overall results indicated that the relations were still stronger in the study areas that had been forested before urban development. The weaker relations in the study areas that had been agricultural before urban development were likely the results of biological communities having been degraded from agricultural practices in the watersheds. Collectively, these results indicated that, compared with sampling a stream at a single point in time, sampling at regular intervals during a year may provide a more representative measure of water quality, especially in the areas of high urban development where water quality fluctuated more widely between samples. Furthermore, the use of "integrated" values of stream chemistry factors may be more appropriate when assessing relations to the biological condition of a stream because the taxa composition of a biological community typically reflects the water-quality conditions over time.

Scientific Investigations Report↗