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Flow-system analysis of the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers in the Rapid City area, South Dakota — Conceptual model

The conceptual model of the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers in the Rapid City area synthesizes the physical geography, hydraulic properties, and ground-water flow components of these important aquifers. The Madison hydrogeologic unit includes the karstic Madison aquifer, which is defined as the upper, more permeable 100 to 200 ft of the Madison Limestone, and the Madison confining unit, which consists of the lower, less permeable part of the Madison Limestone and the Englewood Formation. Overlying the Madison hydrogeologic unit is the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit, which includes the Minnelusa aquifer in the upper, more permeable 200 to 300 ft and the Minnelusa confining unit in the lower, less permeable part. The Madison and Minnelusa hydrogeologic units outcrop in the study area on the eastern flank of the Black Hills where recharge occurs from streamflow losses and areal recharge. The conceptual model describes streamflow recharge, areal recharge, ground-water flow, storage in aquifers and confining units, unsaturated areas, leakage between aquifers, discharge from artesian springs, and regional outflow. Effective transmissivities estimated for the Madison aquifer range from 500 to 20,000 ft 2 /d and for the Minnelusa aquifer from 500 to 10,000 ft 2 /d. Localized anisotropic transmissivity in the Madison aquifer has tensor ratios as high as 45:1. Vertical hydraulic conductivities for the Minnelusa confining unit determined from aquifer tests range from 1.3x10 -3 to 3.0x10 -1 ft/d. The confined storage coefficient of the Madison and Minnelusa hydrogeologic units was estimated as 3x10 -4 ft/d. Specific yield was estimated as 0.09 for the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers and 0.03 for the Madison and Minnelusa confining units. Potentiometric surfaces for the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers have a general easterly gradient of about 70 ft/mi with local variations. Temporal change in hydraulic head in the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers ranged from about 5 to 95 ft in water years 1988-97. The unconfined areas were estimated at about 53 and 36 mi 2 for the Madison and Minnelusa hydrogeologic units, respectively, in contrast to an aquifer analysis area of 629 mi 2 . Dye-tracer tests, stable isotopes, and hydrogeologic features were analyzed conjunctively to estimate generalized ground-water flowpaths in the Madison aquifer and their influences on the Minnelusa aquifer. The western Rapid City area between Boxelder Creek and Spring Creek was characterized as having undergone extensive tectonic activity, greater brecciation in the Minnelusa Formation, large transmissivities, generally upward hydraulic gradients from the Madison aquifer to the Minnelusa aquifer, many karst springs, and converging flowpaths. Water-budget analysis included: (1) a dry-period budget for declining water levels; October 1, 1987, to March 31, 1993; (2) a wet-period budget for rising water levels, April 1, 1993, to September 30, 1997; and (3) a full 10-year period budget for water years 1988-97. By simultaneously balancing these water budgets, initial estimates of recharge, discharge, change in storage, and hydraulic properties were refined. Inflow rates for the 10-year budget included streamflow recharge of about 45 ft 3 /s or 61 percent of the total budget and areal recharge of 22 ft 3 /s or 30 percent. Streamflow recharge to the Madison hydrogeologic unit was about 86 percent of the total streamflow recharge. Outflow for the 10-year budget included springflow of 31 ft 3 /s or 42 percent of the total budget, water use of about 10 ft 3 /s or 14 percent, and regional outflow of 22 ft 3 /s or 30 percent. Ground-water storage increased 9 ft 3 /s during the 10-year period, and net ground-water movement from the Madison to Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit was about 8 ft 3 /s.

South Dakota↗

Terrestrial Ecosystems - Topographic Moisture Potential of the Conterminous United States

As part of an effort to map terrestrial ecosystems, the U.S. Geological Survey has generated topographic moisture potential classes to be used in creating maps depicting standardized, terrestrial ecosystem models for the conterminous United States, using an ecosystems classification developed by NatureServe. A biophysical stratification approach, developed for South America and now being implemented globally, was used to model the ecosystem distributions. Substrate moisture regimes strongly influence the differentiation and distribution of terrestrial ecosystems, and therefore topographic moisture potential is one of the key input layers in this biophysical stratification. The method used to produce these topographic moisture potential classes was based on the derivation of ground moisture potential using a combination of computed topographic characteristics (CTI, slope, and aspect) and mapped National Wetland Inventory (NWI) boundaries. This method does not use climate or soil attributes to calculate relative topographic moisture potential since these characteristics are incorporated into the ecosystem model though other input layers. All of the topographic data used for this assessment were derived from the USGS 30-meter National Elevation Dataset (NED ) including the National Compound Topographic Index (CTI). The CTI index is a topographically derived measure of slope for a raster cell and the contributing area from upstream raster cells, and thus expresses potential for water flow to a point. In other words CTI data are 'a quantification of the position of a site in the local landscape', where the lowest values indicate ridges and the highest values indicate stream channels, lakes and ponds. These CTI values were compared to independent estimates of water accumulation by obtaining geospatial data from a number of sample locations representing two types of NWI boundaries: freshwater emergent wetlands and freshwater forested/shrub wetlands. Where these shorelines (the interface between the NWI wetlands and adjacent land) occurred, the CTI values were extracted and a histogram of their statistical distributions was calculated. Based on an evaluation of these histograms, CTI thresholds were developed to separate periodically saturated or flooded land, mesic uplands (moderately moist), and uplands. After the range of CTI values for these three different substrate moisture regimes was determined, the CTI values were grouped into three initial topographic moisture potential classes. As a final step in the generation of this national data layer, the uplands classification was subdivided into either very dry uplands or dry uplands. Very dry uplands were defined as uplands with relatively steep, south-facing slopes, and identification of this class was based on the slope and aspect datasets derived from the NED. The remaining uplands that did not meet these additional criteria were simply re-classified as dry uplands. The final National Topographic Moisture Potential dataset for the conterminous United States contains four classes: periodically saturated or flooded land (CTI = 18.5), mesic uplands (12 =< CTI < 18.5), dry uplands (CTI < 12), and very dry uplands (CTI < 12, Slope > 24 degrees and 91 degrees =< Aspect =< 314 degrees). This map shows a smoothed and generalized image of the four topographic moisture potential classes. Additional information about this map and any of the data developed for the ecosystems modeling of the conterminous United States is available online at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/ecosystems/.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Simulation of the effects of nearby quarrying operations on ground-water flow at the South Well Field, Franklin County, Ohio

The City of Columbus, Ohio, operates a municipal well field in southern Franklin County that is adjacent to a sand and gravel mining operation. Mining operations have the potential to alter ground-water flowpaths and change the sources of water to pumped wells. Previous ground-water-flow modeling of the area has shown that water pumped from the supply wells is derived from infiltration from nearby rivers and surrounding bedrock. Some of that water flows through existing quarries. Because water quality differs among these sources and is affected by the path along which water flows to the wells, five flow conditions were simulated to evaluate the influence of different mining scenarios on sources of water as related to the size and shape of contributing recharge areas (CRAs) to wells. The first simulation was based on a revision of an existing model by Schalk (1996). The second and third simulations included one in which a 20-foot layer of undisturbed aquifer material within the quarry above the bedrock is left intact, and another in which the 20-foot layer is removed. The fourth and fifth simulations included one in which the 20-foot layer of undisturbed aquifer material is left above the bedrock and the quarry is backfilled with fine- grained sand and silt (a byproduct of the mining operations), and another in which the 20-foot layer is removed before the quarry is backfilled with the fine-grained sand and silt. The results of the five model simulations indicate that the overall volumetric budgets among models change only slightly in response to changing conditions at the quarry. The most significant change is noted in the amount of water that the aquifers gained from constant head and river leakage. This change is due to the way the quarries were simulated and lower heads in the aquifers compared to those in simulations made with earlier models. Previously published model simulations showed that the 5-year CRAs did not extend into the area of the newest sand and gravel quarry. In this study, however, the size and shape of the CRAs differ in response to the addition of two supply wells, and the 5-year CRA for one of these wells intersects the sand and gravel quarry. Particle-tracking analysis indicates that the proportions of water from the principal water sources -- rivers, other quarries (excluding the quarry of interest), and bedrock -- stayed relatively constant among the model simulations. The number of particles that originate in the quarry of interest increased from about 1 percent of the total particles withdrawn through all wells when the 20-foot layer of undisturbed aquifer material was left intact, to 2 percent when the 20-foot layer was removed. In simulations in which the quarry of interest was filled with fine-grained sand and silt, the percentage of particles that travel through or originate in that quarry decreased to less than 1 percent of the total number of particles. Thus, the mining activities at the quarry of interest, combined with increased pumping at the two supply wells have only a small potential to change the overall water quality of water withdrawn from supply wells at the South Well Field.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulation of the Ground-Water Flow System in 1992, and Simulated Effects of Projected Ground-Water Withdrawals in 2020 in the New Jersey Coastal Plain

In 1992, ground-water withdrawals from the unconfined and confined aquifers in the New Jersey Coastal Plain totaled about 300 million gallons per day, and about 70 percent (200 million galllons per day) of this water was pumped from confined aquifers. The withdrawals have created large cones of depression in several Coastal Plain aquifers near populated areas, particularly in Camden and Ocean Counties. The continued decline of water levels in confined aquifers could cause saltwater intrusion, reduction of stream discharge near the outcrop areas of these aquifers, and depletion of the ground-water supply. Because of this, withdrawals from wells located within these critical areas have been reduced in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system, the Englishtown aquifer system, and the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer. A computer-based model that simulates freshwater and saltwater flow was used to simulate transient ground-water flow conditions and the location of the freshwater-saltwater interface during 1989-92 in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. This simulation was used as the baseline for comparison of water levels and flow budgets. Four hypothetical withdrawal scenarios were simulated in which ground-water withdrawals were either increased or decreased. In scenario 1, withdrawals from wells located within critical area 2 in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system were reduced by amounts ranging from 0 to 35 percent of withdrawals prior to 1992. Critical area 2 is mainly located in Camden County, and most of Burlington and Gloucester Counties. With the reductions, water levels recovered about 30 feet in the regional cone of depression centered in Camden County in the Upper Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer and by 20 ft in the Lower and Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers. In scenarios 2 to 4, withdrawals projected for 2020 were input to the model. In scenario 2, withdrawal restrictions within the critical areas were imposed in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system, the Englishtown aquifer system, and the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, but withdrawals were increased outside the critical areas to the projected 2020 demand. With withdrawals restrictions in critical areas, water levels recovered about 20 feet at the center of the regional cone of depression in the Upper Potomac-Raritan Magothy aquifer. Water levels recovered by about 20 feet at the center of a regional cone of depression in the Englishtown aquifer system in Ocean County, and by about 20 feet in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in the same area. In scenario 3, withdrawals were increased to the projected 2020 demand inside and outside the critical areas. As a result, water levels declined as much as 20 feet at the center of a regional cone of depression in the Englishtown aquifer system in Ocean County, and as much as 10 feet in the Wenonah-Mounty Laurel aquifer near this area. The Englishtown aquifer system and the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer are particularly sensitive to increases and decreases in withdrawals because in certain areas the transmissivities of these aquifers are lower than the transmissivities of other confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, and because these aquifers are hydraulically connected. Simulated water levels declined by as much as 10 ft at the center of the regional cone of depression in Atlantic County. In scenario 4, withdrawal amounts were equal to that in scenario 2, except an additional 13.2 million gallons per day was withdrawn from hypothetical wells located outside the critical areas in the Upper Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer, Englishtown aquifer system, and the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer. The additional withdrawals resulted in increased leakage from overlying aquifers to the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and subsequently to the Englishtown aquifer system.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeology and steady-state numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado

The Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin (Lost Creek basin) is an important alluvial aquifer for irrigation, public supply, and domestic water uses in northeastern Colorado. Beginning in 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lost Creek Ground Water Management District and the Colorado Water Conservation Board, collected hydrologic data and constructed a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Lost Creek basin. The model builds upon the work of previous investigators to provide an updated tool for simulating the potential effects of various hydrologic stresses on groundwater flow and evaluating possible aquifer-management strategies. As part of model development, the thickness and extent of regolith sediments in the basin were mapped, and data were collected concerning aquifer recharge beneath native grassland, nonirrigated agricultural fields, irrigated agricultural fields, and ephemeral stream channels. The thickness and extent of regolith in the Lost Creek basin indicate the presence of a 2- to 7-mile-wide buried paleovalley that extends along the Lost Creek basin from south to north, where it joins the alluvial valley of the South Platte River valley. Regolith that fills the paleovalley is as much as about 190 ft thick. Average annual recharge from infiltration of precipitation on native grassland and nonirrigated agricultural fields was estimated by using the chloride mass-balance method to range from 0.1 to 0.6 inch, which represents about 1-4 percent of long-term average precipitation. Average annual recharge from infiltration of ephemeral streamflow was estimated by using apparent downward velocities of chloride peaks to range from 5.7 to 8.2 inches. Average annual recharge beneath irrigated agricultural fields was estimated by using passive-wick lysimeters and a water-balance approach to range from 0 to 11.3 inches, depending on irrigation method, soil type, crop type, and the net quantity of irrigation water applied. Estimated average annual recharge beneath irrigated agricultural fields represents about 0-43 percent of net irrigation. The U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater modeling program, MODFLOW-2000, was used to develop a steady-state groundwater flow model of the Lost Creek basin. Groundwater in the basin is simulated generally to flow from the basin margins toward the center of the basin and northward along the paleovalley. The largest source of inflow to the model occurs from recharge beneath flood- and sprinkler-irrigated agricultural fields (14,510 acre-feet per year [acre-ft/yr]), which represents 39.7 percent of total simulated inflow. Other substantial sources of inflow to the model are recharge from precipitation and stream-channel infiltration in nonirrigated areas (13,810 acre-ft/yr) seepage from Olds Reservoir (4,280 acre-ft/yr), and subsurface inflow from ditches and irrigated fields outside the model domain (2,490 acre-ft/yr), which contribute 37.7, 11.7, and 6.8 percent, respectively, of total inflow. The largest outflow from the model occurs from irrigation well withdrawals (26,760 acre-ft/yr), which represent 73.2 percent of total outflow. Groundwater discharge (6,640 acre-ft/yr) at the downgradient end of the Lost Creek basin represents 18.2 percent of total outflow, and evapotranspiration (3,140 acre-ft/yr) represents about 8.6 percent of total outflow.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A precipitation-runoff model for the analysis of the effects of water withdrawals and land-use change on streamflow in the Usquepaug–Queen River Basin, Rhode Island

The 36.1-square-mile Usquepaug–Queen River Basin in south-central Rhode Island is an important water resource. Streamflow records indicate that withdrawals may have diminished flows enough to affect aquatic habitat. Concern over the effect of withdrawals on streamflow and aquatic habitat prompted the development of a Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model to evaluate the water-management alternatives and land-use change in the basin. Climate, streamflow, and water-use data were collected to support the model development. A logistic-regression equation was developed for long-term simulations to predict the likelihood of irrigation, the primary water use in the basin, from antecedent potential evapotranspiration and precipitation for generating irrigation demands. The HSPF model represented the basin by 13 pervious-area and 2 impervious-area land-use segments and 20 stream reaches. The model was calibrated to the period January 1, 2000 to September 30, 2001, at three continuous streamflow-gaging stations that monitor flow from 10, 54, and 100 percent of the basin drainage area. Hydrographs and flow-duration curves of observed and simulated discharges, along with statistics compiled for various model-fit metrics, indicate a satisfactory model performance. The calibrated HSPF model was modified to evaluate streamflow (1) under no withdrawals to streamflow under current (2000–01) withdrawal conditions under long-term (1960–2001) climatic conditions, (2) under withdrawals by the former Ladd School water-supply wells, and (3) under fully developed land use. The effects of converting from direct-stream withdrawals to ground-water withdrawals were evaluated outside of the HSPF model by use of the STRMDEPL program, which calculates the time delayed response of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow depletion. Simulated effects of current withdrawals relative to no withdrawals indicate about a 20-percent decrease in the lowest mean daily streamflows at the basin outlet, but withdrawals have little effect on flows that are exceeded less than about 90 percent of the time. Tests of alternative model structures to evaluate model uncertainty indicate that the lowest mean daily flows ranged between 3 and 5 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) without withdrawals and 2.2 to 4 ft3/s with withdrawals. Changes in the minimum daily streamflows are more pronounced, however; at the upstream streamflow-gaging station, a minimum daily flow of 0.2 ft3/s was sustained without withdrawals, but simulations with withdrawals indicate that the reach would stop flowing part of a day about 5 percent of the time. The effect on streamflow of potential ground-water withdrawals of 0.20, 0.90, and 1.78 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) at the former Ladd School near the central part of the basin were evaluated. The lowest daily mean flows in model reach 3, the main stem of the Queen River closest to the pumped wells, decreased by about 50 percent for withdrawals of 0.20 Mgal/d (from about 0.4 to 0.2 ft3/s) in comparison to current withdrawals. Reach 3 would occasionally stop flowing during part of the day at the 0.20-Mgal/d withdrawal rate because of diurnal fluctuation in streamflow. The higher withdrawal rates (0.90 and 1.78 Mgal/d) would cause reach 3 to stop flowing about 10 to 20 percent of the time, but the effects of pumping rapidly diminished downstream because of tributary inflows. Simulation results indicate little change in the annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low flows at the 0.20 Mgal/d pumping rate, but at the 1.78 Mgal/d pumping rate, reach 3 stopped flowing for nearly a 7-day period every year and for a 30-day period about every other year. At the 0.90 Mgal/d pumping rate, reach 3 stopped flowing about every other year for a 7-day period and about once every 5 years for a 30-day period. Land-use change was simulated by converting model hydrologic-response units (HRUs) representing undeveloped areas to HRUs representing developed areas on the basis of development suitability and town zoning. About 55 percent of the basin is suitable for development; this area would accommodate about 4,300 new low-density residential homes under current zoning. Increases in storm volume and peak flows, and decreases in base flow, typically associated with urbanization, were not evident in buildout simulations because the effective impervious area was assumed to increase by only 2 percent. Under fully developed conditions, withdrawals from self-supply wells were estimated to reach 1.2 Mgal/d. Potential increases in water withdrawals for a fully developed basin have only a minor impact on the main stem streamflow, but the effects of urbanization could be more pronounced in localized areas where development is concentrated. Streamflow-depletion rates were calculated for varying distances of a pumped irrigation well from a stream. For the irrigation rates and aquifer conditions tested, streamflow depletion, relative to the pumping rate, decreases rapidly as the pumped well was moved away from the stream. Streamflow depletion, relative to the peak withdrawal rate, decreased by about 60, 80, and 90 percent by locating the pumped well 500, 1,000, and 1,500 feet from the stream, respectively.

Rhode Island↗

Geohydrology of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal area, with special reference to the Ocala vicinity

The Cross-Florida Barge Canal route commences at Palatka on the St. Johns River, about 75 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, and extends 110 miles southwestward across Peninsular Florida into deep water in the Gulf of Mexico near Yankeetown. The canal will be equipped with five locks, each 600 feet long and 84 feet wide, and the channel will be a minimum of 12 feet deep and 150 feet wide. From near Ocala northeastward, the canal channel will replace much of the natural channel of the Oklawaha River, and will be excavated into beds of the so-called shallow sand aquifer of Miocene age and younger, which overlies limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Westward from Ocala, most of the canal will be excavated below the potentiometric surface into limestone and dolomite of the Floridan aquifer. Water levels of Rodman, Eureka, and Inglis Pools will be controlled by dams and spillways with the limited exchange of water between the pools and the aquifers. The water levels in the Summit Pools will fluctuate with the natural changes in the ground-water level of the Floridan aquifer, although the stage of the pool will be controlled partly by the stage held in the Eureka Pool. A dynamic inflow-outflow relationship will exist between the Summit Pool and the Floridan aquifer. The Floridan aquifer in the canal area is 1,000 to 1,200 feet thick and consists of limestone and dolomite of middle Eocene Miocene age, including from older to younger, the Lake City, Avon Park, and Ocala limestones plus permeable sandy, dolomitic limestone in the lower part of the Hawthorn Formation. It is possible that most of the flow to the two major springs in the area occurs in the upper 100 feet or so of the aquifer in the Ocala Limestone. The aquifer is underlain by the Oldsmar limestone of early Eocene age and is overlain by sand, clayey sand, clay and shell beds of Miocene through Holocene age, in thickness from a few feet to 300 feet. The permeable beds overlying the Floridan aquifer constitute the shallow aquifer, while the poorly permeable ones act as confining beds where the Floridan aquifer is under artesian conditions. A north-south line drawn separating the head of Silver Springs on the west from the Oklawaha River on the east marks the approximate western limit of a continuous blanket of materials of Miocene-Pliocene(?) age covering the rocks of the Floridan aquifer. East of the line, much of the aquifer is under artesian conditions, particularly in the Oklawaha River valley, although in some areas east of the valley, direct recharge through thick permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) sands occurs. West of the line, only scattered remnants of a once continuous Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover remain. Lack of the cover is a result of erosion on the crest and flank of the Ocala Uplift, a broad northwest-southeast trending anticlinal upwarp, the axis of which is crossed by the canal route in the Dunnellon area. Over most of this area the Floridan aquifer is unconfined and receives direct recharge through a cover of a few tens of feet of sand and clayey sand of Quaternary age. Tensional stresses during the structural evolution of the Ocala Uplift produced an intersecting system of fractures and normal faults in rocks of the Floridan aquifer. The fractures and faults are important controls for orientation of solution channels and, therefore, for development of ground-water circulation patterns. When the system surface streams, which once drained the Barge Canal area, eroded the poorly permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover from the flanks of the Ocala Uplift, surface runoff was reduced and precipitation began to directly infiltrate the underlying limestones. Now only principal streams remain, such as the Oklawaha and Withlacoochee Rivers and a few short tributaries, while one of the most highly developed subsurface drainage systems in the world has evolved in cavernous limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Two of the larger freshwater springs in the world now discharge from the Floridan aquifer in the canal area. Silver Springs near Ocala discharges an average 531 mgd (million gallons per day) down the 4-mile long Silver River, which flows on poorly permeable beds to the Oklawaha River. Rainbow Springs near Dunnellon discharges on average 468 mgd from numerous orifices in the bed of the 5-mile-long Rainbow River, which flows into the Withlacoochee River. The heads of the springs have migrated to their present positions partly because of a tendency of ground-water levels to decline as permeability in the aquifer is increased due to removal of limestone by solution, and because of mechanical erosion of the limestone in the vicinity of the spring heads. Also, points of principal spring discharges have shifted in the past due to changes in ground-water levels in response to changes in sea level. The subsurface drainage system is continuing to evolve today, as evidenced in part by frequent occurrence of new sinkholes and by the presence of significant amounts of calcium bicarbonate in the spring waters. Rodman Pool, at the east end of the canal, is separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable materials. The pool's operating water level will be only a few feet above the potentiometric surface at the downstream end, and at or slightly below the potentiometric surface at the upstream end. Little exchange of water between the Rodman Pool and the Floridan aquifer is expected. Eureka Pool, just upstream from Rodman Pool, will also be separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable beds. However, the stage of the pool will be about 15 feet higher than the natural potentiometric surface at the pool's downstream end, and some seepage into the Floridan aquifer is anticipated through faults and leaky parts of the poorly permeable beds, with a consequent rise in ground-water levels in areas adjacent to the lower end of the pool. Possibilities for particulate contamination of the aquifer will tend to be minimized because of the filtering capacity of the materials through which water must pass to reach the aquifer, although the natural filter will not preclude movement into the aquifer of contaminants which might become dissolved in the pool waters. No significant interchange of water between the pool and the aquifer is expected at the upstream end of the Eureka Pool. Present construction plans indicate an operating stage for Eureka Pool which will range between 38 and 40 feet above mean sea level, although it is possible to dredge the pool deep enough to permit a range in stage of 36 to 40 feet. A backwater effect extending up Silver River from the Eureka Pool is expected to regulate the stage at the head of Silver Springs between 39 and 44 feet above mean sea level if the pool ranges between 36 and 40 feet. If Eureka Pool ranges only between 38 and 40 feet, the range of stage at the head of the springs should be about 41 to 44 feet above mean sea level. From Inglis Lock west, the canal will have direct connection with the Gulf, and canal stage will fluctuate with the Gulf tide. Since the canal stage will be slightly lower than the adjacent ground-water levels along much of the reach, there will be some ground-water inflow to the canal. No significant changes in the existing ground-water regime are expected in the vicinity of Inglis Pool, the first step up in the canal east of the Gulf. Existing ground-water and surface-water levels in the area will not change appreciable, and the natural stage and flow of Rainbow Springs, which will flow by way of Rainbow River into Inglis Pool, should not be affected by canal operations. A possible adverse effect of the canal on the Inglis Pool area could result if sea water is locked up from the Gulf through Inglis Lock. However, the high step of 25 feet at the lock, flushing action of continuous flow from Inglis Pool to the lower reaches of the Withlacoochee River, and use of possible preventive locking procedures should minimize the problem. The potential for adverse effects on the ground-water regime is greatest in the area of the Summit Pool. Through most of the length of the pool, the canal channel will be excavated into limestone of the Floridan aquifer to depths of 12 to 27 feet below the potentiometric surface. Changes that will take place in the ground-water flow system in the Silver Springs drainage area, once the canal is completed, were estimated by flow-net analysis. Variation in aquifer transmissivity was determined by calculating transmissivity in 25 different flow cells surrounding Silver Springs. Transmissivity in the 25 cells averages about 15,600,000 gpd/ft [2,090,000 ft2/day (feet squared)], but transmissivity in the six cells through which the Summit Pool passes ranges from 9,000,000 to 44,000,000 gpd/ft (1,210,000 to 5,900,000 ft2/day). Transmissivity was used to compute static stage of the Summit Pool under given ground-water level conditions. Had the canal existed in May 1968 and had the stage of Eureka Pool been held at 36 feet at the time, the static stage in Summit Pool would have been about 42.1 feet above mean sea level. Thus, a conceptual model of the changes in the potentiometric surface wrought by the finished canal was drawn, and zones of ground-water inflow and outflow were delineated. Most outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer should be limited to one 4-mile-long zone along the north side of the pool, about 5 miles south of Silver Springs. It is estimated that a water volume equivalent to about 8 percent of the daily flow of Silver Springs will enter the Summit Pool each day from the southern one-third of the Silver Springs drainage area. A like amount will reenter the aquifer at the main zone of outflow and move toward Silver Springs at an estimated average velocity of about 200 feet per day, if something close to the natural static stage of the pool is maintained by return pumpage of the lockage losses. At a velocity of 200 feet per day, water from the Summit Pool would discharge at Silver Springs about 140 days later. However, any estimate of velocity in the highly cavernous limestone aquifer in the area should be used with caution, because difficult to measure changes in porosity and thickness of major zones of flow may cause large variations in velocity. If all lockage losses are returned to the Summit Pool by pumping from Eureka Pool, no net loss from the Silver Springs drainage area, except for some evaporation from the water surface in the canal and possible leakage around locks, will result from canal operations. The zone of outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer will be in a natural potentiometric trough, and the zone of inflow will be in a potentiometric ridge area. The equilibrium water level in the pool will tend to be about 1 foot higher than the altitude of the lowest level in the pre-canal potentiometric trough, and about 2 feet lower than the highest level on the pre-canal potentiometric ridge. West of the Silver Springs drainage area just east of Dunnellon Lock, in the area of a local potentiometric high, the water level in the Summit Pool is expected to be about 15 feet below the natural potentiometric surface. In most areas 2 to 3 miles away from the Summit Pool, effects of the canal on the natural potentiometric surface should be slight. The stage of the Summit Pool, judging from the 36-year record for ground-water level changes and the anticipated indirect effect of the controlled stage in Eureka Pool, should have a maximum of about 10.5 feet with a maximum water level of about 51.5 feet above mean sea level and a minimum of about 41.0 feet above mean sea level. Of particular importance in the Summit Pool is an implementation of well planned construction and operational procedures designed to minimize risks of ground-water contamination.

Florida↗

Influence of Locally Derived Recharge on the Water Quality and Temperature of Springs in Hot Springs National Park, Arkansas

The hot springs of Hot Springs National Park consist of a mixture of water from two recharge components: a primary hot-water component and a secondary cold-water component. Widespread distribution of fractures enables mixing of the hot- and cold-water components of flow near the discharge area for the springs. Urbanization in the area near the hot springs of Hot Springs National Park has increased the potential for degradation of the quality of surface-water runoff and locally derived ground-water recharge to the hot springs. Previous studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have indicated that water from some cold-water springs and wells in the vicinity of Hot Springs, Arkansas, showed evidence of contamination and that water from locally derived cold-water recharge might contribute 25 percent of the total flow to the hot springs after storms. Water samples were collected during base-flow conditions at nine hot springs and two cold-water springs in September 2000. Nine hot springs and one cold-water spring were resampled in October 2001 after a storm that resulted in a measurable decrease in water temperature in selected hot springs. Water samples were analyzed for a variety of dissolved chemical constituents (nutrients, major ions, trace elements, pesticides, semivolatile compounds, isotopes, and radiochemicals), physical properties, field measurements, and bacteria. Comparison of analyses of samples collected during base-flow conditions from the springs in 2000 and during a storm event in 2001 with the results from earlier studies dating back to the late 1800's indicates that little change in major, minor, and trace constituent chemistry has occurred and that the water continues to be of excellent quality. Water-quality data show distinguishable differences in water chemistry of the springs during base-flow and stormflow conditions, indicating changing input of cold-water recharge relative to hot-water recharge. Silica, total dissolved solids, strontium, barium, and sulfate show statistically significant differences between the median values of base-flow and stormflow samples. While variations in these constituents do not degrade water quality, the differences do provide evidence of variability in the factors controlling water quality of the hot springs and show that water quality is influenced by the locally derived, cold-water component of flow to the springs. Water temperature was measured continuously (3-minute intervals) between August 2000 and October 2002 at four hot springs. Continuous water-temperature data at the springs provide no indication of persistent long-term change in water temperature through time. Short time-scale water-temperature decreases occur in response to mixing of hot-springs water with locally derived recharge after storm events; the magnitude of these decreases varied inversely with the amount of rainfall. Maximum decreases in water temperature for specific storms had a non-linear relation with the amount of precipitation measured for the events. Response time for water temperature to begin decreasing from baseline temperature as a result of storm recharge was highly variable. Some springs began decreasing from baseline temperature as quickly as 1 hour after the beginning of a storm; one spring had an 8-hour minimum response time to show a storm-related temperature decrease. Water-quality, water-temperature, isotopic, and radiochemical data provide multiple lines of evidence supporting the importance of the contribution of cold-water recharge to hot springs. All the springs sampled indicated some measure of influence from local recharge. Binary mixing models using silica and total dissolved solids indicate that cold-water recharge from stormflow contributes an estimated 10 to 31 percent of the flow of hot springs. Models using water temperature indicate that cold-water recharge from stormflow contributes an estimated 1 to 35 percent of the flow of the various hot springs. Alth

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulation of subsurface storage and recovery of effluent using multiple wells, St Petersburg, Florida

The potential for subsurface storage and recovery, otherwise called aquifer storage and recovery, of effluent in the uppermost producing zone of the Upper Floridan aquifer in St. Petersburg, Florida, was studied by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of St. Petersburg and the Southwest Florida Water Management District. The success of subsurface storage and recovery depends on the recovery efficiency, or the quantity of water, relative to the quantity injected, that can be recovered before the water that is withdrawn fails to meet salinity limits. The viability of this practice will depend upon the ability of the injected zone to receive, store, and discharge the injected fluid. A three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow and solute transport, incorporating available data on aquifer properties and water quality, was developed to evaluate the effects of changing various operational factors on recovery efficiency. The reference case for testing was a base model considered representative of the aquifer system underlying the Southwest St. Petersburg Water Treatment Facility. The base simulation used as a standard for comparison consisted of a single cycle of 90 days of simultaneous injection of effluent in three wells at a rate of 4.0 million gallons per day and then equal rate withdrawal of 4.0 million gallons per day until the pumped water in each well reached a dissolvedsolids concentration of 1,500 milligrams per liter. A recovery efficiency of 14.8 percent was estimated for the base simulation. Ten successive injection and recovery cycles increased recovery efficiency to about 56 percent. Based on model simulations for hypothetical conditions, recovery efficiency (1) increased with successive injection and recovery cycles; (2) increased when the volume of injectant increased; (3) decreased when storage time increased; (4) did not change significantly when the injection rate or recovery rate increased, or when the ratio of recovery rate to injection rate increased, and (5) was not significantly affected by any particular geometric arrangement of wells or by the number of wells when the volume of water injected remained constant. Recovery efficiency from multiple wells was nearly the same as from a single well. Recovery efficiency ranged from about 7 to 56 percent, in several tests. Sensitivity of recovery efficiency to variations in selected parameters such as dissolved-solids concentration of the injection zone, permeability, vertical anisotropy, longitudinal and transverse dispersivities, and effective porosity was tested. Changes in the dissolved-solids concentration of the injection zone produced the greatest change in recovery efficiency. Uniform changes in dispersivity values produced the second greatest change in recovery efficiency. Generally, recovery efficiency increased when the above parameter values were decreased and recovery efficiency decreased when these parameter values were increased. Density difference between native and injected waters was the most important factor affecting recovery efficiency in this study. For the base simulation, sensitivity tests indicated that recovery efficiency increased from about 15 to 78 percent when the dissolved-solids concentration of the native water decreased from about 7,800 to 500 milligrams per liter. Dispersivity is another important factor affecting recovery efficiency. For the base simulation, sensitivity tests indicated that recovery efficiencies from about 9 to 24 percent can be obtained for different dispersivity values. A field determination of dispersivity was not made as part of this study, and values used may not be representative of the actual dispersive characteristics of the aquifer system at the study site. However, dispersivity values tested are within the range of values used in previous studies.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Reactive-transport simulation of phosphorus in the sewage plume at the Massachusetts Military Reservation, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The subsurface transport of phosphorus introduced by the disposal of treated sewage effluent to ground-infiltration disposal beds at the Massachusetts Military Reservation on western Cape Cod was simulated with a three-dimensional reactive-transport model. The simulations were used to estimate the load of phosphorus transported to Ashumet Pond during operation of the sewage-treatment plant from 1936 to 1995 and for 60 years following cessation of sewage disposal. The model accounted for spatial and temporal changes in water discharge from the sewage-treatment plant, ground-water flow, transport of associated chemical constituents, and a set of chemical reactions, including phosphorus sorption on aquifer materials, dissolution and precipitation of iron- and manganese-oxyhydroxide and iron phosphate minerals, organic carbon sorption and decomposition, cation sorption, and irreversible denitrification. The flow and transport in the aquifer were simulated by using parameters consistent with those used in previous flow models of this area of Cape Cod, except that numerical dispersion was much larger than the physical dispersion estimated in previous studies. Sorption parameters were fit to data derived from phosphorus sorption and desorption laboratory column experiments. Rates of organic carbon decomposition were adjusted to match the location of iron concentrations in an anoxic iron zone within the sewage plume. The sensitivity of the simulated load of phosphorus transported to Ashumet Pond was calculated for a variety of processes and input parameters. Model limitations included large uncertainties associated with the loading of the sewage beds, the flow system, and the chemistry and sorption characteristics in the aquifer. The results of current model simulations indicate a small load of phosphorus transported to Ashumet Pond during 1965-85, but this small load was particularly sensitive to model parameters that specify flow conditions and the chemical process by which non-desorbable phosphorus is incorporated in the sediments. The uncertainties were large enough to make it difficult to determine whether loads of phosphorus transported to Ashumet Pond in the 1990s were greater or less than loads during the previous two decades. The model simulations indicate substantial discharge of phosphorus to Ashumet Pond after about 1965. After the period 2000-10 the simulations indicate that the load of phosphorus transported to Ashumet Pond decreases continuously, but the load of phosphorus remains substantial for many decades. The current simulations indicate a peak in phosphorus discharge to Ashumet Pond of about 1,000 kilograms per year during the 1990s; however, comparisons of simulated phosphorus concentrations with measured concentrations in 1993 indicate that the peak in phosphorus load transported to Ashumet Pond may be larger and moving more quickly in the model simulations than in the aquifer. The results of the three-dimensional reactive-transport simulations are consistent with the loading history, experimental laboratory data, and field measurements. The results of the simulations adequately reproduce the spatial distribution of phosphorus concentrations measured in 1993, the magnitude of changes in phosphorus concentration with time in a profile near the disposal beds following cessation of sewage disposal, the observed iron zone in the sewage plume, the approximate flow of treated sewage effluent into Ashumet Valley, and laboratory-column data for phosphorus sorption and desorption.

Massachusetts↗

Preliminary study of the aquifers of the lower Mesilla Valley in Texas and New Mexico by model simulation

The aquifers in the lower Mesilla Valley of Texas and New Mexico provide water for irrigation, industrial use, and municipal supply. At present (1984), the shallow aquifer is used principally for irrigation. The medium-depth aquifer (the top of which is about 160 to 260 feet below land surface) and deep aquifer (about 460 to 680 feet below land surface) are used almost exclusively by the city of El Paso to provide about 28 percent of the city's ground-water withdrawal of about 82,000 acre-feet in 1980; however, a small percentage of the pumpage is from the shallow aquifer. The potential use of the medium-depth and deep aquifers for irrigation, together with a planned increase in pumping by the city, is causing concern on the part of El Paso water planners over the impact of this development on the limited supply from the two aquifers. A three-dimensional digital model of the aquifers was developed to evaluate the responses of water levels to various plans of development, with particular emphasis on the medium-depth and deep aquifers in and near the Canutillo well field. Simulations also were made to show the effect of eliminating seepage from the Rio Grande to the aquifer system. The model simulations indicate that if pumpage by the city of El Paso during 1^76-80 increases to 10,000 acre-feet, per year from the medium-depth aquifer and to 20,000 acre-feet per year from the deep aquifer, and elsewhere in the study area pumping was held constant at the 1975 rate, then additional lowering of water levels in representative observation wells would be as much as 24 feet in the medium-depth aquifer and as much as 52 feet in the deep aquifer. The water levels would decline sharply during the first few months, after which the levels would become nearly stable because the leakage between the aquifers probably is enough to balance the increased pumpage. The model also indicated that lining of the channel of the Rio Grande would result in an additional lowering of water levels in representative observation wells by 10 feet in the medium-depth aquifer and 8 feet in the deep aquifer. The accuracy of water levels simulated by a model is dependent on the accuracy and distribution of input data and how well model boundary conditions approximate actual boundary conditions. Because of a lack of hydro!ogic data (especial ly water-1 evel information) everywhere except the Canutillo wellfield area, because the simulated cone of depression reached two boundaries, and because the model contained an error and several deficiencies as explained in the "Discussion" section, the simulated results need to be interpreted carefully. The authors believe that the simulated results could be used best as a preliminary and conceptual evaluation of the pumping effects at the Canutillo well field, not as a quantitative interpretation. Although the patterns of simulated hydrographs of water-level change in observation wells in the Canutillo field generally may be correct, the amount of change simulated probably is not correct. Because the salinity of water in all three aquifers south of Canutillo is greater than elsewhere in the study area, there is potential for movement of this water northward toward the Canutillo well field if the cone of depression reaches that part of the aquifer system. This potential should be evaluated in future geohydrologic studies of the lower Mesilla Valley.

New Mexico, Texas↗

Stratigraphy and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the St. Francois Confining Unit in the Viburnum Trend and evaluation of the Unit in the Viburnum Trend and exploration areas, southeastern Missouri

The confining ability of the St. Francois confining unit (Derby-Doerun Dolomite and Davis Formation) was evaluated in ten townships (T. 31?35 N. and R. 01?02 W.) along the Viburnum Trend of southeastern Missouri. Vertical hydraulic conductivity data were compared to similar data collected during two previous studies 20 miles south of the Viburnum Trend, in two lead-zinc exploration areas that may be a southern extension of the Viburnum Trend. The surficial Ozark aquifer is the primary source of water for domestic and public-water supplies and major springs in southern Missouri. The St. Francois confining unit lies beneath the Ozark aquifer and impedes the movement of water between the Ozark aquifer and the underlying St. Francois aquifer (composed of the Bonneterre Formation and Lamotte Sandstone). The Bonneterre Formation is the primary host formation for lead-zinc ore deposits of the Viburnum Trend and potential host formation in the exploration areas. For most of the more than 40 years the mines have been in operation along the Viburnum Trend, about 27 million gallons per day were being pumped from the St. Francois aquifer for mine dewatering. Previous studies conducted along the Viburnum Trend have concluded that no large cones of depression have developed in the potentiometric surface of the Ozark aquifer as a result of mining activity. Because of similar geology, stratigraphy, and depositional environment between the Viburnum Trend and the exploration areas, the Viburnum Trend may be used as a pertinent, full-scale model to study and assess how mining may affect the exploration areas. Along the Viburnum Trend, the St. Francois confining unit is a complex series of dolostones, limestones, and shales that generally is 230 to 280 feet thick with a net shale thickness ranging from less than 25 to greater than 100 feet with the thickness increasing toward the west. Vertical hydraulic conductivity values determined from laboratory permeability tests were used to represent the St. Francois confining unit along the Viburnum Trend. The Derby-Doerun Dolomite and Davis Formation are statistically similar, but the Davis Formation would be the more hydraulically restrictive medium. The shale and carbonate values were statistically different. The median vertical hydraulic conductivity value for the shale samples was 62 times less than the carbonate samples. Consequently, the net shale thickness of the confining unit along the Viburnum Trend significantly affects the effective vertical hydraulic conductivity. As the percent of shale increases in a given horizon, the vertical hydraulic conductivity decreases. The range of effective vertical hydraulic conductivity for the confining unit in the Viburnum Trend was estimated to be a minimum of 2 x 10-13 ft/s (foot per second) and a maximum of 3 x 10-12 ft/s. These vertical hydraulic conductivity values are considered small and verify conclusions of previous studies that the confining unit effectively impedes the flow of ground water between the Ozark aquifer and the St. Francois aquifer along the Viburnum Trend. Previously-collected vertical hydraulic conductivity data for the two exploration areas from two earlier studies were combined with the data collected along the Viburnum Trend. The nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis statistical test shows the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the St. Francois confining unit along the Viburnum Trend, and west and east exploration areas are statistically different. The vertical hydraulic conductivity values generally are the largest in the Viburnum Trend and are smallest in the west exploration area. The statistical differences in these values do not appear to be attributed strictly to either the Derby-Doerun Dolomite or Davis Formation, but instead they are caused by the differences in the carbonate vertical hydraulic conductivity values at the three locations. The calculated effective vertical hydraulic conductivity range for the St. Franc

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Movement of the saltwater interface in the surficial aquifer system in response to hydrologic stresses and water-management practices, Broward County, Florida

A study was conducted to evaluate the relation between water-level fluctuations and saltwater intrusion in Broward County, Florida. The objective was achieved through data collection at selected wells in Broward County and through the development of a variable-density ground-water flow model. The numerical model is representative of many locations in Broward County that contain a well field, control structure, canal, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the Atlantic Ocean. The model was used to simulate short-term movement (from tidal fluctuations to monthly changes) and long-term movement (greater than 10 years) of the saltwater interface resulting from changes in rainfall, well-field withdrawals, sea-level rise, and upstream canal stage. The SEAWAT code, which is a combined version of the computer codes, MODFLOW and MT3D, was used to simulate the complex variable-density flow patterns. Model results indicated that the canal, control structure, and sea level have major effects on ground-water flow. For periods greater than 10 years, the upstream canal stage controls the movement and location of the saltwater interface. If upstream canal stage is decreased by 1 foot (0.3048 meter), the saltwater interface takes 50 years to move inland and stabilize. If the upstream canal stage is then increased by 1 foot (0.3048 meter), the saltwater interface takes 90 years to move seaward and stabilize. If sea level rises about 48 centimeters over the next 100 year as predicted, then inland movement of the saltwater interface may cause well-field contamination. For periods less than 10 years, simulation results indicated that a 3-year drought with increased well-field withdrawals probably will not have long-term effects on the position of the saltwater interface in the Biscayne aquifer. The saltwater interface returns to its original position in less than 10 years. Model results, however, indicated that the interface location in the lower part of the surficial aquifer system takes longer than 10 years to recover from a drought. Additionally, rainfall seems to have the greatest effect on saltwater interface movement in areas some distance from canals, but the upstream canal stage has the greatest effect on the movement of the saltwater interface near canals. Field data indicated that saltwater interface movement includes short-term fluctuations caused by tidal fluctuations and long-term seasonal fluctuations. Statistical analyses of daily-averaged data indicated that the saltwater interface moves in response to pumpage, rainfall, and upstream canal stage. In areas near the canal, the saltwater interface is most affected by canal stage because water-management structures control the stage in the upstream part of the canal and allow movement of the saltwater interface. In areas away from the canal, the saltwater interface is most affected by pumpage and rainfall, depending on the location of well fields. Data analyses also revealed that rainfall changes the vertical flow direction in the Biscayne aquifer. Results from the study indicated that upstream canal stage substantially affects the long-term position of the saltwater interface in the surficial aquifer system. The saltwater interface moves faster inland than seaward because of changes in upstream canal stage. For short-term problems, such as drought, the threat of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer does not appear to be severe if the well-field withdrawal is increased; however, this conclusion is based on the assumption that well-field withdrawals will decrease once the drought is over. Sea-level rise may be a potential threat to the water supply in Broward County as the saltwater interface moves inland toward well fields.

Florida↗

Hydrologic change in the St. Louis River Basin from iron mining on the Mesabi Iron Range, northeastern Minnesota

This study compares the results of two regional steady-state U.S. Geological Survey Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow (MODFLOW) models constructed to quantify the hydrologic changes in the St. Louis River Basin from iron mining on the Mesabi Iron Range in northeastern Minnesota. The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated in this study with bands of the Minnesota Chippewa Tribe, and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency to inform management decisions about aquatic resources in the St. Louis River Basin. A model constructed and calibrated to represent average 1995–2015 mining conditions produced regional groundwater heads and flows. A pre-mining scenario model was constructed from this mining model but had the land and bedrock surfaces restored to pre-mining topographies and had modeled mining features (mine pits, tailings basins, waste-rock piles, and mining-disturbed areas) eliminated to represent general pre-mining stratigraphy and hydrogeology. Many of the features important to the hydrology of this mining area (like individual mine pits) are difficult to represent in groundwater models and required the use of modeling tools to indirectly account for their effects. The difference between the results of these two models represents mining’s effects on the hydrology in the Mesabi Iron Range area of the St Louis River Basin. The mining and pre-mining regional models also can provide boundary conditions and initial properties for future local or site-specific groundwater-flow models in the area. Total groundwater flow through the mining model is 171 million cubic feet per day. Areal recharge is the largest source of groundwater (78 and 81 percent of total groundwater flow in the mining and pre-mining scenario models, respectively). Seepage from streams and lakes provides another 17 percent of the total groundwater flow through both models. Water leaves aquifers through seepage to streams (discharge as base flow, 43 percent in both models) and areal seepage to the land surface (surface seepage), for example to wetlands (45 and 49 percent, mining and pre-mining scenario models respectively). Comparison of the results from the mining and pre-mining scenario models shows that iron mining has produced measurable hydrologic changes in the St. Louis River Basin, but that most of those changes and the highest magnitude changes occur near the mining features. Flow changes to and from surface-water bodies like streams and wetlands were analyzed in detail because of their importance in sustaining surface waters and aquatic life. Overall, groundwater flow in the mining model was 3.62 million cubic feet per day (2.2 percent) greater than total pre-mining model groundwater flow. This was caused by an increase in recharge from tailings basins and a decrease in discharge from surface seepage. Groundwater discharge to mine pits was the largest change in groundwater flows between the models (a change representing 2.8 percent of total pre-mining model groundwater flow). Net recharge to groundwater from tailings basins (2.4 percent), net decrease in surface seepage from groundwater (2.7 percent), and net increase in seepage to streams (1.0 percent) were all in this same range of total pre-mining model groundwater flow. Groundwater lost through mine-pit withdrawals was nearly offset by groundwater gained through recharge from tailings basins. However, because losses and gains occurred in different areas, the effect of mining can have more substantial effects on local areas than the model-wide averages represent.

Minnesota↗

Effects of climate and land-use change on thermal springs recharge—A system-based coupled surface-water and groundwater-flow model for Hot Springs National Park, Arkansas

A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework of the Hot Springs anticlinorium beneath Hot Springs National Park, Arkansas, was constructed to represent the complex hydrogeology of the park and surrounding areas to depths exceeding 9,000 feet below ground surface. The framework, composed of 6 rock formations and 1 vertical fault emplaced beneath the thermal springs, was discretized into 19 layers, 429 rows, and 576 columns and incorporated into a 3-dimensional steady-state groundwater-flow model constructed in MODFLOW-2005. Historical daily mean thermal spring flows were simulated for one stress period of approximately 34 years (1980–2014), chosen to represent the period of record for historical climate data used in the quantification of the boundary conditions. The groundwater-flow model was manually calibrated to historical daily mean thermal spring flows of 88,000 cubic feet per day observed over a 12-year period of record (1990–1995 and 1998–2005) at the thermal springs collection system. Calibration was achieved by calculating starting heads and general head boundary conditions from the Bernoulli equation and then adjusting the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities of the rock formations and vertical fault and the hydraulic conductance of head-dependent flux boundaries. The groundwater-flow model was coupled to a surface-water model developed in the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by using PRMS-simulated gravity drainage as a specified flux recharge boundary condition in the groundwater-flow model. Together, the coupled models were used to (1) locate the areas of groundwater recharge to the thermal springs in the discretized hydrogeologic framework by using forward and reverse particle-tracking capabilities of MODPATH, (2) simulate the effects of variable recharge rates on the spring flows at the thermal springs, and (3) assess possible effects of climate and land-use change on the long-term variability of spring flows at the thermal springs. Forward and backward particle-tracking maps indicated that the most prevalent areas of recharge in the discretized hydrogeologic framework used in this study were within about 0.6–0.9 mile of the thermal springs. Forward particle tracking indicated a recharge area southwest of the thermal springs that corresponded to a location where the predominant lithologies are the Arkansas Novaculite, Hot Springs Sandstone, and Bigfork Chert. Backward particle tracking indicated a second localized area of recharge to the northeast of the thermal springs that corresponded to a location where the dominant lithology is the Bigfork Chert. The groundwater-flow model indicated that the most probable recharge formations are the Arkansas Novaculite, Bigfork Chert, and Hot Springs Sandstone. The simulated effects of climate and land-use changes on the variability of the spring-flow rates at the thermal springs generally resulted in reductions of thermal spring flow attributed to urban development and more extreme climates characterized by elevated mean surface air temperatures. The groundwater-flow model predicted a linear relation between the thermal spring discharge and the cumulative recharge volume applied to the hydrogeologic framework, and the positive slope of the predicted relation between recharge and simulated thermal spring flow indicates that more extreme precipitation events that supply more recharge may in fact increase the thermal spring-flow rates.

Arkansas↗

Methods for estimating low-flow characteristics of ungaged streams in selected areas, northern Florida

Methods for estimating low-flow frequency characteristics at ungaged sites were developed for two areas in northern Florida. In the Yellow, Blackwater, Escambia, and Perdido River Basins study area (northwestern Florida), regional regression equations were developed for estimating the 7- and 30-day, 2- and 10-year low-flow characteristic (Q7,2, Q7,10, Q30,2, and Q30,10) by determining values of basin characteristics from digital Geographical Information System (GIS) coverages or hardcopy maps. A GIS, ARC-INFO, was used to quantify basin characteristics that were used in regression equations. Sources of digital data used in this analysis are elevation data, from a digital elevation model, stream length and location data from a digital hydrography coverage, and watershed boundaries digitized from topographic maps. The most accurate regression equations employed a basin characteristic that was based on a simple conceptual model of one- dimensional ground-water flow using Darcy's law. Slightly less accurate equations were obtained using drainage area as the only explanatory variable. The standard error of prediction for the Darcy and drainage area equations of Q7,2 was 65 and 74 percent, respectively; Q7,10, 58 and 62 percent, respectively; Q30,2, 51 and, 54 percent, respectively; and Q30,10, 44 and 51 percent, respectively. In the Santa Fe River Basin study area (northeastern Florida), a flow-routing method was used to estimate low-flow characteristics at ungaged sites from low stream- flow analyses based on records at gaged sites. The use of the flow-routing method is suggested for areas where regression analysis proves unsuccessful, where low-flow characteristics have been defined at a significant number of sites, and where information about the basin characteristics has been thoroughly researched. Low-flow frequency characteristics determined at 40 sites and measurements made during five synoptic runs in 1989-91 were used to develop a flow-routing method. Low-flow frequency characteristics and drainage areas were used to define river profiles for major streams within the Santa Fe River Basin. These river profiles serve as indicators of changes in a stream's low-flow characteristics with respect to change in drainage area. Unit low flows were also determined for each site where low-flow characteristics were determined. Areas of zero flow were defined for Q7,2 and Q7,10 conditions based on measurements made during synoptic runs and from low-flow frequency analyses. The flow-routing method uses the drainage areas to interpolate low-flow values between or near gaged sites on the same stream. Low-flow values are transferred from a gaged site, either upstream or downstream, to the ungaged site. A step-by-step process for flow routing must be made when tributary or other inflow enter a stream. The strength of the flow-routing method is that the values at gaged sites reflect the overall basin characteristics in the vicinity of the gaged sites. However, the accuracy of low-flow estimates may be less in areas of decreasing and increasing flow if sufficient data are not available to assess changing hydraulic and hydrologic conditions.

Florida↗

Simulated Effects of Year 2030 Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow near the Interstate-495 Corridor, Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins, Eastern Massachusetts

Continued population growth and land development for commercial, industrial, and residential uses have created concerns regarding the future supply of potable water and the quantity of ground water discharging to streams in the area of Interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts. Two ground-water models developed in 2002-2004 for the Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins were used to simulate water supply and land-use scenarios relevant for the entire Interstate-495 corridor. Future population growth, water demands, and commercial and residential growth were projected for year 2030 by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. To assess the effects of future development on subbasin streamflows, seven scenarios were simulated by using existing computer-based ground-water-flow models with the data projected for year 2030. The scenarios incorporate three categories of projected 2030 water- and land-use data: (1) 2030 water use, (2) 2030 land use, and (3) a combination of 2030 water use and 2030 land use. Hydrologic, land-use, and water-use data from 1997 through 2001 for the Assabet River Basin study and 1989 through 1998 for the Upper Charles River Basin study were used to represent current conditions - referred to as 'basecase' conditions - in each basin to which each 2030 scenario was compared. The effects of projected 2030 land- and water-use change on streamflows in the Assabet River Basin depended upon the time of year, the hydrologic position of the subbasin in the larger basin, and the relative areas of new commercial and residential development projected for a subbasin. Effects of water use and land use on streamflow were evaluated by comparing average monthly nonstorm streamflow (base flow) for March and September simulated by using the models. The greatest decreases in streamflow (up to 76 percent in one subbasin), compared to the basecase, occurred in September, when streamflows are naturally at their lowest level. By contrast, simulated March streamflows decreased less than 6.5 percent from basecase streamflows in all subbasins for all scenarios. The simulations showed similar effects in the Upper Charles River Basin, but increased water use contributed to decreased simulated streamflow in most subbasins. Simulated changes in March streamflows for 2030 in the Upper Charles River Basin were within +- 6 percent of the basecase for all scenarios and subbasins. Percentage decreases in simulated September streamflows for 2030 were greater than in March but less than the September decreases that resulted for some subbasins in the Assabet River Basin. Only two subbasins of the Upper Charles River Basin had projected decreases greater than 5 percent. In the Mill River subbasin, the decrease was 11 percent, and in the Mine Brook subbasin, 6.6 percent. Changes in water use and wastewater return flow generally were found to have the greatest effect in the summer months when streamflow and aquifer recharge rates are low and water use is high. September increases in main-stem streamflow of both basins were due mainly to increased discharge of treated effluent from wastewater-treatment facilities on the main-stem rivers. In the Assabet River Basin, wastewater-treatment-facility discharge became a smaller proportion of total streamflow with distance downstream. In contrast, wastewater-treatment facility discharge in the Upper Charles River Basin became a greater proportion of streamflow with distance downstream. The effects of sewer-line extension and low-impact development on streamflows in two different subbasins of the Assabet River Basin also were simulated. The result of extending sewer lines with a corresponding decrease in septic-system return flow caused September streamflows to decrease as much as 15 percent in the Fort Pond Brook subbasin. The effect of low-impact development was simulated in the Hop Brook subbasin in areas projected for commercial development. In this simulation, the greater the area where low-i

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Estimation of the effects of land use and groundwater withdrawals on streamflow for the Pomperaug River, Connecticut

A precipitation runoff model for the Pomperaug River watershed, Connecticut was developed to address issues of concern including the effect of development on streamflow and groundwater recharge, and the implications of water withdrawals on streamflow. The model was parameterized using a strategy that requires a minimum of calibration and optimization by establishing basic relations between the parameter value and physical characteristics of individual hydrologic response units (HRUs) that comprise the model. The strategy was devised so that the information needed can be obtained from Geographic Information System and other general databases for Connecticut. Simulation of groundwater recharge enabled evaluation of the temporal and spatial mapping of recharge variation across the watershed and the spatial effects of changes in land cover on base flow and surface runoff. The modeling indicated that over the course of a year, groundwater provides between 60 and 70 percent of flow in the Pomperaug River; the remainder is generated by more rapid flow through the shallow subsurface and runoff from impermeable surfaces and saturated ground. Groundwater is recharged primarily during periods of low evapotranspiration in the winter, spring, and fall. The largest amount of recharge occurs in the spring in response to snowmelt. During floods, the Weekeepeemee and Nonnewaug Rivers (tributaries that form the Pomperaug River) respond rapidly with little flood peak attenuation due to flood-plain storage. In the Pomperaug River, flood-plain storage is more important in attenuating floods; abandoned quarry ponds (O&G ponds) adjacent to the river provide substantial flood storage above specific river stages when flow from the river spills over the banks and fills the ponds. Discharge from the ponds also helps to sustain low flows in the Pomperaug River. Similarly, releases from the Bronson-Lockwood reservoir sustain flow in the Nonnewaug River and tend to offset the effect of groundwater withdrawals from a well field adjacent to the river during periods of natural low flow. The model indicated that under the current zoning, future development could reduce low flows by as much as 10 percent at the 99 percent exceedance level (99 percent of flows are greater than or equal to this flow), but would not substantially increase the highest flows. Simulation of projected and hypothetical development in the watershed shows, depending on how stormwater is managed, that between 10 and 20 percent effective impervious area in an HRU results in streamflow becoming dominated by the surface-runoff component. This shift from a groundwater-dominated system would likely result in substantial changes in water quality and instream habitat characteristics of the river. Base flow to streams in the Pomperaug River watershed is reduced by both increased impervious surface and increased groundwater withdrawals. For the watershed as a whole, increasing groundwater withdrawals have the potential for causing greater overall reductions in flow compared to increased development and impervious surfaces. Additionally, on the basis of groundwater-modeling simulations, the projected increase in development across the watershed and, to a lesser extent the increase in groundwater withdrawals, will increase the number of local losing reaches experiencing dry conditions and the duration of these dry periods. The location of the losing reaches tends to be in areas near the transition from the uplands to the valley bottoms that are filled with coarse glacial stratified deposits. The simulated increase in the duration and extent of localized dry stream reaches is most sensitive to local increase in impervious surface. Conversion of land from forest or developed land cover to pasture or agricultural land increases groundwater recharge and discharge to streams, while at the same time increasing overall streamflow (the opposite effect as increased impervious surface). These resu

Scientific Investigations Report↗