SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Environmental Modeling & Assessment”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Transforming ecosystems: When, where, and how to restore contaminated sites

Chemical contamination has impaired ecosystems, reducing biodiversity and the provisioning of functions and services. This has spurred a movement to restore contaminated ecosystems and develop and implement national and international regulations that require it. Nevertheless, ecological restoration remains a young and rapidly growing discipline and its intersection with toxicology is even more nascent and underdeveloped. Consequently, we provide guidance to scientists and practitioners on when, where, and how to restore contaminated ecosystems. Although restoration has many benefits, it also can be expensive, and in many cases systems can recover without human intervention. Hence, the first question we address is: “When should we restore contaminated ecosystems?” Second, we provide suggestions on what to restore—biodiversity, functions, services, all 3, or something else—and where to restore given expected changes to habitats driven by global climate change. Finally, we provide guidance on how to restore contaminated ecosystems. To do this, we analyze critical aspects of the literature dealing with the ecology of restoring contaminated ecosystems. Additionally, we review approaches for translating the science of restoration to on-the-ground actions, which includes discussions of market incentives and the finances of restoration, stakeholder outreach and governance models for ecosystem restoration, and working with contractors to implement restoration plans. By explicitly considering the mechanisms and strategies that maximize the success of the restoration of contaminated sites, we hope that our synthesis serves to increase and improve collaborations between restoration ecologists and ecotoxicologists and set a roadmap for the restoration of contaminated ecosystems.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2022

Species-specific responses to landscape features shaped genomic structure within Alaska galliformes

Aim Connectivity is vital to the resiliency of populations to environmental change and stochastic events, especially for cold-adapted species as Arctic and alpine tundra habitats retract as the climate warms. We examined the influence of past and current landscapes on genomic connectivity in cold-adapted galliformes as a critical first step to assess the vulnerability of Alaska ptarmigan and grouse to environmental change. We hypothesize that the mosaic of physical features and habitat within Alaska promoted the formation of genetic structure across species. Location Alaska, United States of America. Taxa Ptarmigan and Grouse (Galliformes: Tetraoninae). Methods We collected double digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequence data from six ptarmigan and grouse species ( N = 13–145/species) sampled across multiple ecosystems up to ~10 degrees of latitude. Spatial genomic structure was analysed using methods that reflect different temporal scales: (1) principal components analysis to identify major trends in the distribution of genomic variation; (2) maximum likelihood clustering analyses to test for the presence of multiple genomic groupings; (3) shared co-ancestry analyses to assess contemporary relationships and (4) effective migration surfaces to identify regions that deviate from a null model of isolation by distance. Results Levels of genomic structure varied across species (Φ ST =0.009–0.042). Three general patterns of structure emerged: (1) east-west partition located near the Yukon-Tanana uplands; (2) north-south split coinciding with the Alaska Range and (3) northern group near the Brooks Range. Species-specific patterns were observed; not all landscape features were barriers to gene flow for all ptarmigan and grouse and temporal contrasts were detected at the Brooks Range. Main conclusions Within Alaska galliformes, patterns of genomic structure coincide with physiographic features and highlight the importance of physical and ecological barriers in shaping how genomic diversity is arrayed across the landscape. Lack of concordance in spatial patterns indicates that species behaviour and habitat affinities play key roles in driving the contrasting patterns of genomic structure.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Abiotic and biotic factors related to growth of non-native Walleyes in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho

Objective Growth is one of the primary drivers of fish population dynamics and understanding factors influencing growth is vital to effective management of fish populations. This study investigated potential factors influencing growth of a recently established, non-native population of Walleye Sander vitreus in the Lake Pend Oreille system in northern Idaho. Methods We used relative growth index to describe growth of Walleyes relative to populations across North America. Mixed‐effects modeling was used to relate growth to abiotic (i.e., mean summer water temperature, river inflow) and biotic (i.e., kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka abundance and biomass; opossum shrimp Mysis diluviana density) variables. Models were ranked using Akaike's information criterion corrected for small sample size. Individual variability in growth was related to diet represented by stable isotopes (i.e., δ 15 N, δ 13 C) using linear regression for age‐1, age‐2, age‐3, and age‐5 individuals. Subsequently, for each age‐class, we evaluated differences in δ 15 N and δ 13 C between fast‐growing (i.e., 75th and higher percentiles of growth) and slow‐growing (i.e., 25th and lower percentiles of growth) individuals. Results The relative growth index suggested that Walleye grew fast relative to other populations, particularly those at similar latitudes to the Lake Pend Oreille system. Mixed-effects regression modeling indicated that growth of Walleyes was positively associated with temperature as well as abundance and biomass of kokanee; growth was negatively associated with inflow from the Clark Fork River and Mysis diluviana density. The top model explaining growth of Walleyes contained temperature and abundance of kokanee as environmental variables. The second equally plausible (i.e., within 2 AICc) model contained temperature. Growth of Walleyes varied among individuals. Generally, fast-growing Walleyes had higher δ15N than slow-growing Walleyes. Similarly, δ13C was more depleted in the fast-growing individuals for all age classes, except age 1, suggesting that age-1 individuals used higher proportions of littoral prey items compared to other age classes. Conclusion This study showed that kokanee abundance and temperature appeared to be important factors influencing growth of Walleyes in the Lake Pend Oreille system. Additionally, variability in growth appeared to be related to variability in diet, particularly for age-1 Walleyes. Impact statement Growth of Walleyes has been extensively studied, yet few studies have evaluated growth of Walleyes in novel systems or assessed individual variability in growth. Our research adds to the understanding of individual variability in growth and factors influencing population dynamics of non-native Walleyes.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Groundwater-quality and select quality-control data from the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, January 2017 through December 2019

Groundwater-quality environmental data were collected from 983 wells as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Program and are included in this report. The data were collected from six types of well networks: principal aquifer study networks, which are used to assess the quality of groundwater used for public water supply; land-use study networks, which are used to assess land-use effects on shallow groundwater quality; major aquifer study networks, which are used to assess the quality of groundwater used for domestic supply; enhanced trends networks, which are used to evaluate the time scales during which groundwater quality changes; vertical flow-path study networks, which are used to evaluate changes in groundwater quality from shallow to deeper depths; and modeling support studies, which are used to provide data to support groundwater modeling. Groundwater samples were analyzed for many water-quality indicators and constituents, including major ions, nutrients, trace elements, volatile organic compounds, pesticides, radionuclides, microbiological indicators, and some constituents of special interest (arsenic speciation, hexavalent chromium [chromium (VI)], and perchlorate). These groundwater-quality data, along with data from quality-control samples, are tabulated in this report and in an associated data release. Data for microbiological indicators for samples collected in 2016 are included in the companion data release.

Data Series↗

USGS2016

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy for highly pathogenic avian influenza in wildlife and the environment (2016–2020)

Introduction Through the Science Strategy for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Wildlife and the Environment, the USGS will assess avian influenza (AI) dynamics in an ecological context to inform decisions made by resource managers and policymakers from the local to national level. Through collection of unbiased scientific information on the ecology of AI viruses and wildlife hosts in a changing world, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will enhance the development of AI forecasting tools and ensure this information is integrated with a quality decision process for managing HPAI. The overall goal of this USGS Science Strategy for HPAI in Wildlife and the Environment goes beyond documenting the occurrence and distribution of AI viruses in wild birds. The USGS aims to understand the epidemiological processes and environmental factors that influence HPAI distribution and describe the mechanisms of transmission between wild birds and poultry. USGS scientists developed a conceptual model describing the process linking HPAI dispersal in wild waterfowl to the outbreaks in poultry. This strategy focuses on five long-term science goals, which include: Science Goal 1—Augment the National HPAI Surveillance Plan; Science Goal 2—Determine mechanisms of HPAI disease spread in wildlife and the environment; Science Goal 3—Characterize HPAI viruses circulating in wildlife; Science Goal 4—Understand implications of avian ecology on HPAI spread; and Science Goal 5—Develop HPAI forecasting and decision-making tools. These goals will help define and describe the processes outlined in the conceptual model with the ultimate goal of facilitating biosecurity and minimizing transfer of diseases across the wildlife-poultry interface. The first four science goals are focused on scientific discovery and the fifth goal is application-based. Decision analyses in the fifth goal will guide prioritization of proposed actions in the first four goals.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Review of the transport of selected radionuclides in the interim risk assessment for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Waste Area Group 7 Operable Unit 7-13/14, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requested that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct an independent technical review of the Interim Risk Assessment (IRA) and Contaminant Screening for the Waste Area Group 7 (WAG-7) Remedial Investigation, the draft Addendum to the Work Plan for Operable Unit 7-13/14 WAG-7 comprehensive Remedial Investigation and Feasibility Study (RI/FS), and supporting documents that were prepared by Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies, Inc. The purpose of the technical review was to assess the data and geotechnical approaches that were used to estimate future risks associated with the release of the actinides americium, uranium, neptunium, and plutonium to the Snake River Plain aquifer from wastes buried in pits and trenches at the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA). The SDA is located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex in southeastern Idaho within the boundaries of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Radionuclides have been buried in pits and trenches at the SDA since 1957 and 1952, respectively. Burial of transuranic wastes was discontinued in 1982. The five specific tasks associated with this review were defined in a ?Proposed Scope of Work? prepared by the DOE, and a follow-up workshop held in June 1998. The specific tasks were (1) to review the radionuclide sampling data to determine how reliable and significant are the reported radionuclide detections and how reliable is the ongoing sampling program, (2) to assess the physical and chemical processes that logically can be invoked to explain true detections, (3) to determine if distribution coefficients that were used in the IRA are reliable and if they have been applied properly, (4) to determine if transport model predictions are technically sound, and (5) to identify issues needing resolution to determine technical adequacy of the risk assessment analysis, and what additional work is required to resolve those issues.

Idaho↗

USGS2004

A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized. The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,-1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2020

Use of environmental DNA to detect the invasive aquatic plants Myriophyllum spicatum and Egeria densa in lakes

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis offers a promising tool for rapid and early detection of aquatic plant invasive species, but currently suffers from substantial unknowns that limit its widespread use in monitoring programs. We conducted the first study to test the factors related to eDNA-based detectability of 2 invasive aquatic plants, Egeria densa and Myriophyllum spicatum , over extended periods of time. Specifically, we examined how plant growth stage and abundance relate to detection in semi-natural and natural conditions. We conducted a mesocosm experiment over a 10-wk period to assess changes in eDNA detection as a function of plant growth and changing biomass. We also sampled lakes with varying species abundances and resampled a subset of lakes to test temporal variability in detection. We used multilevel occupancy modeling to determine factors associated with detection and generalized linear mixed effects modeling to assess important predictors of eDNA concentration. In mesocosm experiments, we found that detection was less reliable while plants were actively growing but improved as a function of increasing senescence. Plant abundance in tanks was a poor predictor of detection in water samples. These findings were supported by field sampling, which resulted in higher detections for E. densa during senescence periods and only weak or ambiguous relationships between eDNA and total plant abundance in lakes for both species. Within lakes, proximity to shallow photic zones and discrete plant patches were associated with increased detections and concentrations of eDNA. However, detection at the lake scale (based on 4 sampling stations) was typically successful only at the highest levels of plant abundance. Detection and concentrations of eDNA were consistently lower for M. spicatum than for E. densa in the mesocosm experiment and field sampling, suggesting that overall detectability of aquatic invasive plants varies by species. Our results support sampling during senescence periods to improve detection, but generally low levels of detection and weak relationships with plant abundance indicate that substantial hurdles remains to implement eDNA analysis for early detection of, and rapid response to, aquatic invasive plants.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2011

Integrating estimates of ecosystem services from conservation programs and practices into models for decision makers

Most government agencies involved in land management are seeking consistent approaches to evaluate the effects of specific management actions on ecological processes and concurrent changes on ecosystem services. This is especially true within the context of anthropogenic influences, such as land use and climate change. The Conservation Effects Assessment Project—Wetlands National Component (CEAP–Wetlands) was developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to evaluate effects of conservation practices on ecosystem services including carbon sequestration for climate stability, groundwater recharge, runoff and flood attenuation, water storage, nutrient and contaminant retention, and wildlife habitat. A primary purpose of CEAP–Wetlands is to provide science‐based information in an adaptive monitoring framework for use by the USDA to facilitate policy and management decisions, and to document effects of conservation programs and practices to the federal Office of Management and Budget. Herein, we propose a modeling framework to allow estimation of conservation practice and program effects on various ecosystem services at different temporal and spatial scales. This modeling approach provides the broad view needed by decision‐makers to avoid unintended negative environmental outcomes, and to communicate to society the positive effects of conservation actions on a broad suite of ecosystem services.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

Soil, plant, and terrain effects on natural perchlorate distribution in a desert landscape

Perchlorate (ClO 4 − ) is a contaminant that occurs naturally throughout the world, but little is known about its distribution and interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. The objectives of this Amargosa Desert, Nevada study were to determine (i) the local-scale distribution of shallow-soil (0–30 cm) ClO 4 − with respect to shrub proximity (far and near) in three geomorphic settings (shoulder slope, footslope, and valley floor); (ii) the importance of soil, plant, and terrain variables on the hillslope-distribution of shallow-soil and creosote bush [ Larrea tridentata (Sessé & Moc. ex DC.) Coville] ClO 4 − ; and (iii) atmospheric (wet plus dry, including dust) deposition of ClO 4 − in relation to soil and plant reservoirs and cycling. Soil ClO 4 − ranged from 0.3 to 5.0 μg kg −1 . Within settings, valley floor ClO 4 − was 17× less near shrubs due in part to enhanced leaching, whereas shoulder and footslope values were ∼2× greater near shrubs. Hillslope regression models (soil, R 2 = 0.42; leaf, R 2 = 0.74) identified topographic and soil effects on ClO 4 − deposition, transport, and cycling. Selective plant uptake, bioaccumulation, and soil enrichment were evidenced by leaf ClO 4 − concentrations and Cl − /ClO 4 − molar ratios that were ∼8000× greater and 40× less, respectively, than soil values. Atmospheric deposition ClO 4 − flux was 343 mg ha −1 yr −1 , ∼10× that for published southwestern wet-deposition fluxes. Creosote bush canopy ClO 4 − (1310 mg ha−1) was identified as a previously unrecognized but important and active reservoir. Nitrate δ 18 O analyses of atmospheric deposition and soil supported the leaf-cycled–ClO 4 − input hypothesis. This study provides basic data on ClO 4 − distribution and cycling that are pertinent to the assessment of environmental impacts in desert ecosystems and broadly transferable to anthropogenically contaminated systems.

Nevada↗

USGS2003

Comparison and continuous estimates of fecal coliform and Escherichia coli bacteria in selected Kansas streams, May 1999 through April 2002

The sanitary quality of water and its use as a public-water supply and for recreational activities, such as swimming, wading, boating, and fishing, can be evaluated on the basis of fecal coliform and Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria densities. This report describes the overall sanitary quality of surface water in selected Kansas streams, the relation between fecal coliform and E. coli, the relation between turbidity and bacteria densities, and how continuous bacteria estimates can be used to evaluate the water-quality conditions in selected Kansas streams. Samples for fecal coliform and E. coli were collected at 28 surface-water sites in Kansas. Of the 318 samples collected, 18 percent exceeded the current Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) secondary contact recreational, single-sample criterion for fecal coliform (2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters of water). Of the 219 samples collected during the recreation months (April 1 through October 31), 21 percent exceeded the current (2003) KDHE single-sample fecal coliform criterion for secondary contact rec-reation (2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters of water) and 36 percent exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) recommended single-sample primary contact recreational criterion for E. coli (576 colonies per 100 milliliters of water). Comparisons of fecal coliform and E. coli criteria indicated that more than one-half of the streams sampled could exceed USEPA recommended E. coli criteria more frequently than the current KDHE fecal coliform criteria. In addition, the ratios of E. coli to fecal coliform (EC/FC) were smallest for sites with slightly saline water (specific conductance greater than 1,000 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius), indicating that E. coli may not be a good indicator of sanitary quality for those streams. Enterococci bacteria may provide a more accurate assessment of the potential for swimming-related illnesses in these streams. Ratios of EC/FC and linear regression models were developed for estimating E. coli densities on the basis of measured fecal coliform densities for six individual and six groups of surface-water sites. Regression models developed for the six individual surface-water sites and six groups of sites explain at least 89 percent of the variability in E. coli densities. The EC/FC ratios and regression models are site specific and make it possible to convert historic fecal coliform bacteria data to estimated E. coli densities for the selected sites. The EC/FC ratios can be used to estimate E. coli for any range of historical fecal coliform densities, and in some cases with less error than the regression models. The basin- and statewide regression models explained at least 93 percent of the variance and best represent the sites where a majority of the data used to develop the models were collected (Kansas and Little Arkansas Basins). Comparison of the current (2003) KDHE geometric-mean primary contact criterion for fecal coliform bacteria of 200 col/100 mL to the 2002 USEPA recommended geometric-mean criterion of 126 col/100 mL for E. coli results in an EC/FC ratio of 0.63. The geometric-mean EC/FC ratio for all sites except Rattlesnake Creek (site 21) is 0.77, indicating that considerably more than 63 percent of the fecal coliform is E. coli. This potentially could lead to more exceedances of the recommended E. coli criterion, where the water now meets the current (2003) 200-col/100 mL fecal coliform criterion. In this report, turbidity was found to be a reliable estimator of bacteria densities. Regression models are provided for estimating fecal coliform and E. coli bacteria densities using continuous turbidity measurements. Prediction intervals also are provided to show the uncertainty associated with using the regression models. Eighty percent of all measured sample densities and individual turbidity-based estimates from the regression models were in agreement as exceedi

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Delineating copper accumulation pathways for the freshwater bivalve Corbicula using stable copper isotopes

Delineation of metal uptake routes in aquatic invertebrates is critical for characterizing bioaccumulation dynamics and assessing risks associated with metal exposure. Here we demonstrate that Cu stable isotopic ratios can be manipulated in both exposure media and algae to determine the efflux rate constant ( k e ) and to estimate Cu assimilation efficiency (AE) from ingested food in a freshwater bivalve ( Corbicula fluminea ). The Cu AE in Corbicula fed 65 Cu‐spiked Cryptomonas ozolini was 38%. Copper uptake routes had no significant influence on efflux; k e of 0.004 per day characterized the slowest component of efflux following short‐term exposures to 65 Cu in water or in both food and water. Incorporation of the physiological parameters for dietary and dissolved uptake as well as rate constants of loss into a bioaccumulation model allowed for assessing the relative contribution of water and food as Cu sources. At [ 65 Cu 2+ ] of 6.7 μg/L, Corbicula accumulated twice as much Cu from diet as from water. In most freshwater systems, the dietary pathway is likely to act as the major Cu uptake route for Corbicula . Extrapolation of our laboratory results to the San Francisco Bay—Delta (California, USA) indicated that our biodynamic model and the laboratory‐derived parameters for dietary 65 Cu uptake provided a realistic representation of the processes involved in Cu accumulation by the bivalve Corbicula .

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2020

PFHydro: A new watershed-scale model for post-fire runoff simulation

Runoff increases after wildfires that burn vegetation and create a condition of soil-water repellence (SWR). A new post-fire watershed hydrological model, PFHydro, was created to explicitly simulate vegetation interception and SWR effects for four burn severity categories: high, medium, low severity and unburned. The model was applied to simulate post-fire runoff from the Upper Cache Creek Watershed in California, USA. Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE) was used to assess model performance. The NSE was 0.80 and 0.88 for pre-fire water years (WY) 2000 and 2015, respectively. NSE was 0.88 and 0.93 for WYs 2016 (first year post-fire) and 2017 respectively. The simulated percentage of surface runoff in total runoff of WY 2016 was about six times that of pre-fire WY 2000 and three times that of WY 2015. The modeling results suggest that SWR is an important factor for post-fire runoff generation. The model was successful at simulating SWR behavior.

California↗

USGS2018

Geomorphic identification of physical habitat features in a large, altered river system

Altered flow regimes in streams can significantly affect ecosystems and disturb ecological processes, leading to species loss and extinction. Many river management projects use stream classification and habitat assessment approaches to design practical solutions to reverse or mitigate adverse effects of flow regime alteration on stream systems. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to provide a primary identification of physical habitats in an 80-km long segment of the Canadian River in central Oklahoma. The methodology relied on basic geomorphic Geomorphic identification of physical habitat features in a large, altered river system erial imagery and Lidar data using Geographic Information Systems. Geostatistical tests were implemented to delineate habitat units. This approach based on high resolution data and did not require in-site inspection provided a relatively refined habitat delineation, consistent with visual observations. Future efforts will focus on validation via field surveys and coupling with hydro-sedimentary modeling to provide a tool for environmental flow decisions.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2012

Estimating risks to aquatic life using quantile regression

One of the primary goals of biological assessment is to assess whether contaminants or other stressors limit the ecological potential of running waters. It is important to interpret responses to contaminants relative to other environmental factors, but necessity or convenience limit quantification of all factors that influence ecological potential. In these situations, the concept of limiting factors is useful for data interpretation. We used quantile regression to measure risks to aquatic life exposed to metals by including all regression quantiles (τ = 0.05–0.95, by increments of 0.05), not just the upper limit of density (e.g., 90 th quantile). We measured population densities (individuals/0.1 m 2 ) of 2 mayflies (Rhithrogena spp., Drunella spp.) and a caddisfly (Arctopsyche grandis), aqueous metal mixtures (Cd, Cu, Zn), and other limiting factors (basin area, site elevation, discharge, temperature) at 125 streams in Colorado. We used a model selection procedure to test which factor was most limiting to density. Arctopsyche grandis was limited by other factors, whereas metals limited most quantiles of density for the 2 mayflies. Metals reduced mayfly densities most at sites where other factors were not limiting. Where other factors were limiting, low mayfly densities were observed despite metal concentrations. Metals affected mayfly densities most at quantiles above the mean and not just at the upper limit of density. Risk models developed from quantile regression showed that mayfly densities observed at background metal concentrations are improbable when metal mixtures are at US Environmental Protection Agency criterion continuous concentrations. We conclude that metals limit potential density, not realized average density. The most obvious effects on mayfly populations were at upper quantiles and not mean density. Therefore, we suggest that policy developed from mean-based measures of effects may not be as useful as policy based on the concept of limiting factors.

Colorado↗

USGS2013

The vegetation outlook (VegOut): a new method for predicting vegetation seasonal greenness

The vegetation outlook (VegOut) is a geospatial tool for predicting general vegetation condition patterns across large areas. VegOut predicts a standardized seasonal greenness (SSG) measure, which represents a general indicator of relative vegetation health. VegOut predicts SSG values at multiple time steps (two to six weeks into the future) based on the analysis of "historical patterns" (i.e., patterns at each 1 km grid cell and time of the year) of satellite, climate, and oceanic data over an 18-year period (1989 to 2006). The model underlying VegOut capitalizes on historical climate-vegetation interactions and ocean-climate teleconnections (such as El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, ENSO) expressed over the 18-year data record and also considers several environmental characteristics (e.g., land use/cover type and soils) that influence vegetation's response to weather conditions to produce 1 km maps that depict future general vegetation conditions. VegOut provides regionallevel vegetation monitoring capabilities with local-scale information (e.g., county to sub-county level) that can complement more traditional remote sensing-based approaches that monitor "current" vegetation conditions. In this paper, the VegOut approach is discussed and a case study over the central United States for selected periods of the 2008 growing season is presented to demonstrate the potential of this new tool for assessing and predicting vegetation conditions.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2024

Don’t move a mussel: The role of key environmental drivers and management scale in assessing spatial variation in dreissenid spread risk in the Missouri River Basin

The spread of non-native freshwater mussels in North America is a growing threat that has already resulted in substantial ecological and economic damage to infested areas. A primary vector by which invasive mussels spread is watercraft that are transported over land from an infested waterbody to an uninfested waterbody. Management efforts such as watercraft inspection and detection programs that attempt to intercept infected watercraft can help limit this type of spread, but optimizing the effectiveness of these programs under limited resources is complicated. Studies have looked at developing watercraft inspection and decontamination program strategies that focus on policy-specific objectives such as maximizing the number of infested watercraft interceptions. However, there is limited work that has considered the heterogeneous impact of protection efforts across different regions and waterbodies. Knowledge about this heterogeneity can highlight regions that would benefit the most from protection as well as regions that would require less effort to protect, e.g., areas with naturally unsuitable water quality for dreissenids. To this end, we construct a composite relative risk index (CRR) for watersheds within the Missouri River Basin, a region in the United States on the front line of dreissenid spread. The CRR uses a model that mirrors an expected value model but uses relative indexing as a proxy for the model components. The CRR incorporates a wide array of data sets to account for the direct and indirect damages from a potential infestation along with the risk of an infestation occurring. Our results suggest that the relative priority of a specific watershed—measured through CRR—can depend on whether we consider the entire Missouri River Basin or just the watersheds in the same state. This also indicates substantial state-level heterogeneity in the CRR. Another contribution is that the CRR index includes user-specified weights for certain parameters so that a user can adjust the relative importance of various factors to match their specific context. An accompanying web tool allows users to view the CRR results and adjust multiple parameters to see the resulting impacts on the CCR for watersheds in the Missouri River Basin.

Missouri River Basin↗

USGS2008

An ecological risk assessment of the acute and chronic toxicity of the herbicide picloram to the threatened bull trout (salvelinus confluentus) and the rainbow trout (onchorhyncus mykiss)

We conducted acute and chronic toxicity studies of the effects of picloram acid on the threatened bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) and the standard coldwater surrogate rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Juvenile fish were chronically exposed for 30 days in a proportional flow-through diluter to measured concentrations of 0, 0.30, 0.60, 1.18, 2.37, and 4.75 mg/L picloram. No mortality of either species was observed at the highest concentration. Bull trout were twofold more sensitive to picloram (30-day maximum acceptable toxic concentration of 0.80 mg/L) compared to rainbow trout (30-day maximum acceptable toxic concentration of 1.67 mg/L) based on the endpoint of growth. Picloram was acutely toxic to rainbow trout at 36 mg/L (96-h ALC50). The acute:chronic ratio for rainbow trout exposed to picloram was 22. The chronic toxicity of picloram was compared to modeled and measured environmental exposure concentrations (EECs) using a four-tiered system. The Tier 1, worst-case exposure estimate, based on a direct application of the current maximum use rate (1.1 kg/ha picloram) to a standardized aquatic ecosystem (water body of 1-ha area and 1-m depth), resulted in an EEC of 0.73 mg/L picloram and chronic risk quotients of 0.91 and 0.44 for bull trout and rainbow trout, respectively. Higher-tiered exposure estimates reduced chronic risk quotients 10-fold. Results of this study indicate that picloram, if properly applied according to the manufacturer’s label, poses little risk to the threatened bull trout or rainbow trout in northwestern rangeland environments on either an acute or a chronic basis.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗