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Making Recursive Bayesian inference accessible

Bayesian models provide recursive inference naturally because they can formally reconcile new data and existing scientific information. However, popular use of Bayesian methods often avoids priors that are based on exact posterior distributions resulting from former studies. Two existing Recursive Bayesian methods are: Prior- and Proposal-Recursive Bayes. Prior-Recursive Bayes uses Bayesian updating, fitting models to partitions of data sequentially, and provides a way to accommodate new data as they become available using the posterior from the previous stage as the prior in the new stage based on the latest data. ProposalRecursive Bayes is intended for use with hierarchical Bayesian models and uses a set of transient priors in first stage independent analyses of the data partitions. The second stage of Proposal-Recursive Bayes uses the posteriors from the first stage as proposals in an MCMC algorithm to fit the full model. We combine Prior- and Proposal-Recursive concepts to fit any Bayesian model, and often with computational improvements. We demonstrate our method with two case studies. Our approach has implications for big data, streaming data, and optimal adaptive design situations.

American Statistician↗

Development and application of a mark-recapture model incorporating predicted sex and transitory behaviour

We developed an extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to handle a complex mark-recapture problem in which (a) the sex of birds cannot be determined prior to first moult, but can be predicted on the basis of body measurements, and (b) a significant portion of captured birds appear to be transients (i.e. are captured once but leave the area or otherwise become ' untrappable'). We applied this methodology to a data set of 4184 serins (Serinus serinus) trapped in northeastern Spain during 1985-96, in order to investigate age-, sex-, and time-specific variation in survival rates. Using this approach, we were able to successfully incorporate the majority of ringings of serins. Had we eliminated birds not previously captured (as has been advocated to avoid the problem of transience) we would have reduced our sample sizes by >2000 releases. In addition, we were able to include 1610 releases of birds of unknown (but predicted) sex; these data contributed to the precision of our estimates and the power of statistical tests. We discuss problems with data structure, encoding of the algorithms to compute parameter estimates, model selection, identifiability of parameters, and goodness-of-fit, and make recommendations for the design and analysis of future studies facing similar problems.

Bird Study↗

Risk assessment and screening for potentially invasive fishes

Preventing the introduction of potentially invasive species is becoming more important as this worldwide problem continues to grow. The ability to predict the identity or range of potential invaders could influence regulatory decisions and help to optimally allocate resources to deal with ongoing invasions. One screening tool presented here, using species life history and environmental tolerances to identify potential invaders similar to past invaders, can be used to predict potential invading species. Another screening tool, genetic algorithms, can be used to predict the potential range of an invading species. Use and further development of tools such as these, that are quantitative and relatively transparent, would give managers and other decision makers more information for making better-informed decisions.

New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Resea↗

A case study of green tree frog population size estimation by repeated capture-mark-recapture method with individual tagging: A parametric bootstrap method vs. Jolly-Seber method

This paper deals with estimation of a green tree frog population in an urban setting using repeated capture–mark–recapture (CMR) method over several weeks with an individual tagging system which gives rise to a complicated generalization of the hypergeometric distribution. Based on the maximum likelihood estimation, a parametric bootstrap approach is adopted to obtain interval estimates of the weekly population size which is the main objective of our work. The method is computation-based; and programming intensive to implement the algorithm for re-sampling. This method can be applied to estimate the population size of any species based on repeated CMR method at multiple time points. Further, it has been pointed out that the well-known Jolly–Seber method, which is based on some strong assumptions, produces either unrealistic estimates, or may have situations where its assumptions are not valid for our observed data set.

Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation↗

Water vapour correction of the daily 1 km AVHRR global land dataset: Part I validation and use of the Water Vapour input field

An atmospheric correction algorithm developed for the 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) global land dataset was modified to include a near real-time total column water vapour data input field to account for the natural variability of atmospheric water vapour. The real-time data input field used for this study is the Television and Infrared Observational Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) Pathfinder A global total column water vapour dataset. It was validated prior to its use in the AVHRR atmospheric correction process using two North American AVHRR scenes, namely 13 June and 28 November 1996. The validation results are consistent with those reported by others and entail a comparison between TOVS, radiosonde, experimental sounding, microwave radiometer, and data from a hand-held sunphotometer. The use of this data layer as input to the AVHRR atmospheric correction process is discussed.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

The use of multi-temporal Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for mapping fuels in Yosemite National Park, USA

The objective of this study was to test the applicability of using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from a temporal sequence of six Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes to map fuel models for Yosemite National Park, USA. An unsupervised classification algorithm was used to define 30 unique spectral-temporal classes of NDVI values. A combination of graphical, statistical and visual techniques was used to characterize the 30 classes and identify those that responded similarly and could be combined into fuel models. The final classification of fuel models included six different types: short annual and perennial grasses, tall perennial grasses, medium brush and evergreen hardwoods, short-needled conifers with no heavy fuels, long-needled conifers and deciduous hardwoods, and short-needled conifers with a component of heavy fuels. The NDVI, when analysed over a season of phenologically distinct periods along with ancillary data, can elicit information necessary to distinguish fuel model types. Fuels information derived from remote sensors has proven to be useful for initial classification of fuels and has been applied to fire management situations on the ground.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

A multi-scale segmentation approach to filling gaps in Landsat ETM+ SLC-off images

On 31 May 2003, the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+) Scan Line Corrector (SLC) failed, causing the scanning pattern to exhibit wedge-shaped scan-to-scan gaps. We developed a method that uses coincident spectral data to fill the image gaps. This method uses a multi-scale segment model, derived from a previous Landsat SLC-on image (image acquired prior to the SLC failure), to guide the spectral interpolation across the gaps in SLC-off images (images acquired after the SLC failure). This paper describes the process used to generate the segment model, provides details of the gap-fill algorithm used in deriving the segment-based gap-fill product, and presents the results of the gap-fill process applied to grassland, cropland, and forest landscapes. Our results indicate this product will be useful for a wide variety of applications, including regional-scale studies, general land cover mapping (e.g. forest, urban, and grass), crop-specific mapping and monitoring, and visual assessments. Applications that need to be cautious when using pixels in the gap areas include any applications that require per-pixel accuracy, such as urban characterization or impervious surface mapping, applications that use texture to characterize landscape features, and applications that require accurate measurements of small or narrow landscape features such as roads, farmsteads, and riparian areas.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Small-footprint, waveform-resolving lidar estimation of submerged and sub-canopy topography in coastal environments

The experimental advanced airborne research lidar (EAARL) is an airborne lidar instrument designed to map near-shore submerged topography and adjacent land elevations simultaneously. This study evaluated data acquired by the EAARL system in February 2003 and March 2004 along the margins of Tampa Bay, Florida, USA, to map bare-earth elevations under a variety of vegetation types and submerged topography in shallow, turbid water conditions. A spatial filtering algorithm, known as the iterative random consensus filter (IRCF), was used to extract ground elevations from a point cloud of processed last-surface EAARL returns. Filtered data were compared with acoustic and field measurements acquired in shallow submerged (0-2.5 m water depth) and sub-canopy environments. Root mean square elevation errors (RMSEs) ranged from 10-14 cm for submerged topography to 16-20 cm for sub-canopy topography under a variety of vegetation communities. The effect of lidar sampling angles and global positioning system (GPS) satellite configuration on accuracy was investigated. Results show high RMSEs for data acquired during periods of poor satellite configuration and at large sampling angles along the edges of the lidar scan. The results presented in this study confirm the cross-environment capability of a green-wavelength, waveform-resolving lidar system, making it an ideal tool for mapping coastal environments.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Synergistic use of optical and InSAR data for urban impervious surface mapping: A case study in Hong Kong

A wide range of urban ecosystem studies, including urban hydrology, urban climate, land use planning and watershed resource management, require accurate and up‐to‐date geospatial data of urban impervious surfaces. In this study, the potential of the synergistic use of optical and InSAR data in urban impervious surface mapping at the sub‐pixel level was investigated. A case study in Hong Kong was conducted for this purpose by applying a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm to SPOT 5 multispectral imagery and ERS‐2 SAR data. Validated by reference data derived from high‐resolution colour‐infrared (CIR) aerial photographs, our results show that the addition of InSAR feature information can improve the estimation of impervious surface percentage (ISP) in comparison with using SPOT imagery alone. The improvement is especially notable in separating urban impervious surface from the vacant land/bare ground, which has been a difficult task in ISP modelling with optical remote sensing data. In addition, the results demonstrate the potential to map urban impervious surface by using InSAR data alone. This allows frequent monitoring of world's cities located in cloud‐prone and rainy areas.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Global irrigated area map (GIAM), derived from remote sensing, for the end of the last millennium

A Global Irrigated Area Map (GIAM) has been produced for the end of the last millennium using multiple satellite sensor, secondary, Google Earth and groundtruth data. The data included: (a) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 3-band and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 10 km monthly time-series for 1997-1999, (b) Syste me pour l'Observation de la Terre Vegetation (SPOT VGT) NDVI 1 km monthly time series for 1999, (c) East Anglia University Climate Research Unit (CRU) rainfall 50km monthly time series for 1961-2000, (d) Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation Data Set (GTOPO30) 1 km digital elevation data of the World, (e) Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (JERS-1 SAR) data for the rain forests during two seasons in 1996 and (f) University of Maryland Global Tree Cover 1 km data for 1992-1993. A single mega-file data-cube (MFDC) of the World with 159 layers, akin to hyperspectral data, was composed by re-sampling different data types into a common 1 km resolution. The MFDC was segmented based on elevation, temperature and precipitation zones. Classification was performed on the segments. Quantitative spectral matching techniques (SMTs) used in hyperspectral data analysis were adopted to group class spectra derived from unsupervised classification and match them with ideal or target spectra. A rigorous class identification and labelling process involved the use of: (a) space-time spiral curve (ST-SC) plots, (b) brightness-greenness-wetness (BGW) plots, (c) time series NDVI plots, (d) Google Earth very-high-resolution imagery (VHRI) 'zoom-in views' in over 11 000 locations, (e) groundtruth data broadly sourced from the degree confluence project (3 864 sample locations) and from the GIAM project (1 790 sample locations), (f) high-resolution Landsat-ETM+ Geocover 150m mosaic of the World and (g) secondary data (e.g. national and global land use and land cover data). Mixed classes were resolved based on decision tree algorithms and spatial modelling, and when that did not work, the problem class was used to mask and re-classify the MDFC, and the class identification and labelling protocol repeated. The sub-pixel area (SPA) calculations were performed by multiplying full-pixel areas (FPAs) with irrigated area fractions (IAFs) for every class. A 28 class GIAM was produced and the area statistics reported as: (a) annualized irrigated areas (AIAs), which consider intensity of irrigation (i.e. sum of irrigated areas from different seasons in a year plus continuous year-round irrigation or gross irrigated areas), and (b) total area available for irrigation (TAAI), which does not consider intensity of irrigation (i.e. irrigated areas at any given point of time plus the areas left fallow but 'equipped for irrigation' at the same point of time or net irrigated areas). The AIA of the World at the end of the last millennium was 467 million hectares (Mha), which is sum of the non-overlapping areas of: (a) 252 Mha from season one, (b) 174 Mha from season two and (c) 41 Mha from continuous year-round crops. The TAAI at the end of the last millennium was 399 Mha. The distribution of irrigated areas is highly skewed amongst continents and countries. Asia accounts for 79% (370 Mha) of all AIAs, followed by Europe (7%) and North America (7%). Three continents, South America (4%), Africa (2%) and Australia (1%), have a very low proportion of the global irrigation. The GIAM had an accuracy of 79-91%, with errors of omission not exceeding 21%, and the errors of commission not exceeding 23%. The GIAM statistics were also compared with: (a) the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and University of Frankfurt (UF) derived irrigated areas and (b) national census data for India. The relationships and causes of differences are discussed in detail. The GIAM products are made available through a web portal (http://www.iwmigiam.org). ?? 2009 Taylor & Francis.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

An initial validation of Landsat 5 and 7 derived surface water temperature for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries

The United States Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research Control Act of 2014 identified the need for forecasting and monitoring harmful algal blooms (HAB) in lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries across the nation. Temperature is a driver in HAB forecasting models that affects both HAB growth rates and toxin production. Therefore, temperature data derived from the U.S. Geological Survey Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus thermal band products were validated across 35 lakes and reservoirs, and 24 estuaries. In situ data from the Water Quality Portal (WQP) were used for validation. The WQP serves data collected by state, federal, and tribal groups. Discrete in situ temperature data included measurements at 11,910 U.S. lakes and reservoirs from 1980 through 2015. Landsat temperature measurements could include 170,240 lakes and reservoirs once an operational product is achieved. The Landsat-derived temperature mean absolute error was 1.34°C in lake pixels >180 m from land, 4.89°C at the land-water boundary, and 1.11°C in estuaries based on comparison against discrete surface in situ measurements. This is the first study to quantify Landsat resolvable U.S. lakes and reservoirs, and large-scale validation of an operational satellite provisional temperature climate data record algorithm. Due to the high performance of open water pixels, Landsat satellite data may supplement traditional in situ sampling by providing data for most U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries over consistent seasonal intervals (even with cloud cover) for an extended period of record of more than 35 years.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

The potential role of very high-resolution imagery to characterise lake, wetland and stream systems across the Prairie Pothole Region, United States

Aquatic features critical to watershed hydrology range widely in size from narrow, shallow streams to large, deep lakes. In this study we evaluated wetland, lake, and river systems across the Prairie Pothole Region to explore where pan-sharpened high-resolution (PSHR) imagery, relative to Landsat imagery, could provide additional data on surface water distribution and movement, missed by Landsat. We used the monthly Global Surface Water (GSW) Landsat product as well as surface water derived from Landsat imagery using a matched filtering algorithm (MF Landsat) to help consider how including partially inundated Landsat pixels as water influenced our findings. The PSHR outputs (and MF Landsat) were able to identify ~60–90% more surface water interactions between waterbodies, relative to the GSW Landsat product. However, regardless of Landsat source, by documenting many smaller (<0.2 ha), inundated wetlands, the PSHR outputs modified our interpretation of wetland size distribution across the Prairie Pothole Region.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling for a variety of physiographic and climatic conditions

Problems include: a) definition of the spatial and temporal distribution of model input; b) measurement or estimation of snow accumulation, snowmelt, and runoff process parameters for a range of applications and scales; and c) development of accurate short term and long term snowmelt runoff forecasts. Procedures being investigated to solve these problems include: a) integrating conventional and remote-sensing data to improve estimates of input data; b) developing snowmelt process algorithms which have parameters that are closely related to measurable basin and climatic characteristics; and c) updating model paramters and components using measured data or knowledge of past uncertainty. -from Author

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

Estimating the hatchery fraction of a natural population: a Bayesian approach

There is strong and growing interest in estimating the proportion of hatchery fish that are in a natural population (the hatchery fraction). In a sample of fish from the relevant population, some are observed to be marked, indicating their origin as hatchery fish. The observed proportion of marked fish is usually less than the actual hatchery fraction, since the observed proportion is determined by the proportion originally marked, differential survival (usually lower) of marked fish relative to unmarked hatchery fish, and rates of mark retention and detection. Bayesian methods can work well in a setting such as this, in which empirical data are limited but for which there may be considerable expert judgment regarding these values. We explored a Bayesian estimation of the hatchery fraction using Monte Carlo–Markov chain methods. Based on our findings, we created an interactive Excel tool to implement the algorithm, which we have made available for free.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Landsat TM memory effect characterization and correction

Before radiometric calibration of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data can be done accurately, it is necessary to minimize the effects of artifacts present in the data that originate in the instrument's signal processing path. These artifacts have been observed in downlinked image data since shortly after launch of Landsat 4 and 5. However, no comprehensive work has been done to characterize all the artifacts and develop methods for their correction. In this paper, the most problematic artifact is discussed: memory effect (ME). Characterization of this artifact is presented, including the parameters necessary for its correction. In addition, a correction algorithm is described that removes the artifact from TM imagery. It will be shown that this artifact causes significant radiometry errors, but the effect can be removed in a straightforward manner.

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus radiometric calibration

Landsat-7 is currently being built and tested for launch in 1998. The Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensor for Landsat-7, a derivative of the highly successful Thematic Mapper (TM) sensors on Landsats 4 and 5, and the Landsat-7 ground system are being built to provide enhanced radiometric calibration performance. In addition, regular vicarious calibration campaigns are being planned to provide additional information for calibration of the ETM+ instrument. The primary upgrades to the instrument include the addition of two solar calibrators: the full aperture solar calibrator, a deployable diffuser, and the partial aperture solar calibrator, a passive device that allows the ETM+ to image the sun. The ground processing incorporates for the first time an off-line facility, the Image Assessment System (IAS), to perform calibration, evaluation and analysis. Within the IAS, processing capabilities include radiometric artifact characterization and correction, radiometric calibration from the multiple calibrator sources, inclusion of results from vicarious calibration and statistical trending of calibration data to improve calibration estimation. The Landsat Product Generation System, the portion of the ground system responsible for producing calibrated products, will incorporate the radiometric artifact correction algorithms and will use the calibration information generated by the IAS. This calibration information will also be supplied to ground processing systems throughout the world.

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Overview of South‐east Asia land cover using a NOAA AVHRR one kilometer composite

A cloud free AVHRR composite of South‐East Asia at one kilometer resolution has been produced from 38 selected daily NOAA‐11 AVHRR images. Geometric accuracy of about 1 pixel is achieved using a two‐step rectification algorithm (orbital model and transformation by ground control points). A spatial and spectral enhancement has been performed, the sea masked out and political boundaries included in the final product. This AVHRR composite is particularly useful for a comprehensive overview of land cover at a regional scale. Qualitative comparison between a monthly composite and the existing forest maps highlights the forest cover change and points out the hot spots where the maps have to be updated.

Geocarto International↗

Comparison of imaging flow cytometry and microscopy for freshwater algal bloom detection

Imaging flow cytometry (IFC) is an emerging tool that allows for rapid identification and enumeration of phytoplankton in freshwater systems. However, few studies have assessed the effects of preservation on IFC results or compared live IFC and microscopy results in freshwater systems. Understanding the effects of preservation and differences between IFC and microscopy will improve interpretation of these data and inform strategies to use IFC-based approaches in freshwater systems. Our study objectives were to compare IFC and phase contrast with epifluorescence microscopy as techniques for phytoplankton identification and enumeration, and the effects of sample preservation with an emphasis on taxa forming harmful cyanobacterial blooms (HCBs). During June through October 2020, samples were collected from 2 lakes in the Finger Lakes region of New York. Live and preserved samples were analyzed by laboratory-based IFC, and preserved samples were analyzed by microscopy. The IFC approach captured community dynamics while detecting potential cyanobacterial bloom-forming taxa earlier and at lower abundances than microscopy. Laboratory-based IFC allowed for an intermediate level of taxonomic information when compared to microscopy, gross techniques, such as extracted chlorophyll a or fluorescence sensors, and field-based operation of IFC approaches. The laboratory-based application of IFC in this study allowed receipt of results in 5 d or less, a substantial improvement over microscopy, which can be time-consuming to conduct. However, the laboratory-based IFC approach had some limitations. Imaging flow cytometry-estimated biovolume may be less accurate than microscopy for some taxa because of the algorithms used to calculate biovolume, particularly for chrysophytes and coccoid cyanobacteria. Colonial dissociation during preservation appeared to affect detection of Microcystis by IFC less than for other fragile bloom-forming taxa like chrysophytes. Our study results advance understanding of how IFC may translate to field-based approaches for early harmful algal bloom indicators in freshwater.

Lake and Reservoir Management↗