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Methods for estimating low-flow statistics for Massachusetts streams

Methods and computer software are described in this report for determining flow duration, low-flow frequency statistics, and August median flows. These low-flow statistics can be estimated for unregulated streams in Massachusetts using different methods depending on whether the location of interest is at a streamgaging station, a low-flow partial-record station, or an ungaged site where no data are available. Low-flow statistics for streamgaging stations can be estimated using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods described in the report. The MOVE.1 mathematical method and a graphical correlation method can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations. The MOVE.1 method is recommended when the relation between measured flows at a partial-record station and daily mean flows at a nearby, hydrologically similar streamgaging station is linear, and the graphical method is recommended when the relation is curved. Equations are presented for computing the variance and equivalent years of record for estimates of low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations when either a single or multiple index stations are used to determine the estimates. The drainage-area ratio method or regression equations can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for ungaged sites where no data are available. The drainage-area ratio method is generally as accurate as or more accurate than regression estimates when the drainage-area ratio for an ungaged site is between 0.3 and 1.5 times the drainage area of the index data-collection site. Regression equations were developed to estimate the natural, long-term 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows; the 7-day, 2-year and the 7-day, 10-year low flows; and the August median flow for ungaged sites in Massachusetts. Streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for 87 to 133 streamgaging stations and low-flow partial-record stations were used to develop the equations. The streamgaging stations had from 2 to 81 years of record, with a mean record length of 37 years. The low-flow partial-record stations had from 8 to 36 streamflow measurements, with a median of 14 measurements. All basin characteristics were determined from digital map data. The basin characteristics that were statistically significant in most of the final regression equations were drainage area, the area of stratified-drift deposits per unit of stream length plus 0.1, mean basin slope, and an indicator variable that was 0 in the eastern region and 1 in the western region of Massachusetts. The equations were developed by use of weighted-least-squares regression analyses, with weights assigned proportional to the years of record and inversely proportional to the variances of the streamflow statistics for the stations. Standard errors of prediction ranged from 70.7 to 17.5 percent for the equations to predict the 7-day, 10-year low flow and 50-percent duration flow, respectively. The equations are not applicable for use in the Southeast Coastal region of the State, or where basin characteristics for the selected ungaged site are outside the ranges of those for the stations used in the regression analyses. A World Wide Web application was developed that provides streamflow statistics for data collection stations from a data base and for ungaged sites by measuring the necessary basin characteristics for the site and solving the regression equations. Output provided by the Web application for ungaged sites includes a map of the drainage-basin boundary determined for the site, the measured basin characteristics, the estimated streamflow statistics, and 90-percent prediction intervals for the estimates. An equation is provided for combining regression and correlation estimates to obtain improved estimates of the streamflow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations. An equation is also provided for combining regression and drainage-area ratio estimates to obtain improved e

Massachusetts↗

Main-channel slopes of selected streams in Iowa for estimation of flood-frequency discharges

This report describes a statewide study conducted to develop main-channel slope (MCS) curves for 138 selected streams in Iowa with drainage areas greater than 100 square miles. MCS values determined from the curves can be used in regression equations for estimating floodfrequency discharges. Multivariable regression equations previously developed for two of the three hydrologic regions defined for Iowa require the measurement of MCS. Main-channel slope is a difficult measurement to obtain for large streams using 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. The curves developed in this report provide a simplified method for determining MCS values for sites located along large streams in Iowa within hydrologic Regions 2 and 3. The curves were developed using MCS values quantified for 2,058 selected sites along 138 selected streams in Iowa. A geographic information system (GIS) technique and 1:24,000-scale topographic data were used to quantify MCS values for the stream sites. The sites were selected at about 5-mile intervals along the streams. River miles were quantified for each stream site using a GIS program. Data points for river-mile and MCS values were plotted and a best-fit curve was developed for each stream. An adjustment was applied to all 138 curves to compensate for differences in MCS values between manual measurements and GIS quantifications. The multivariable equations for Regions 2 and 3 were developed using manual measurements of MCS. A comparison of manual measurements and GIS quantifications of MCS indicates that manual measurements typically produce greater values of MCS compared to GIS quantifications. Median differences between manual measurements and GIS quantifications of MCS are 14.8 and 17.7 percent for Regions 2 and 3, respectively. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood-frequency discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and GIS quantifications indicate that use of GIS values of MCS for Region 3 substantially underestimate flood discharges. Mean and median percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence- interval flood discharges ranged from 5.0 to 5.3 and 4.3 to 4.5 percent, respectively, for Region 2 and ranged from 18.3 to 27.1 and 12.3 to 17.3 percent for Region 3. The MCS curves developed from GIS quantifications were adjusted by 14.8 percent for streams located in Region 2 and by 17.7 percent for streams located in Region 3. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and adjusted-GIS quantifications for Regions 2 and 3 indicate that the flood-discharge estimates are comparable. For Region 2, mean percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence- interval flood discharges ranged between 0.6 and 0.8 percent and median differences were 0.0 percent. For Region 3, mean and median differences ranged between 5.4 to 8.4 and 0.0 to 0.3 percent, respectively. A list of selected stream sites presented with each curve provides information about the sites including river miles, drainage areas, the location of U.S. Geological Survey streamflowgaging stations, and the location of streams crossing hydrologic region boundaries or the Des Moines Lobe landform region boundary. Two examples are presented for determining river-mile and MCS values, and two techniques are presented for computing flood-frequency discharges.

Iowa↗

Availability of ground water near Carmel, Hamilton County, Indiana

A study of the hydraulic characteristics of the unconsolidated glacial deposits near the city of Carmel in central Indiana shows that 21.3 million gallons per day (933 litres per second) of additional water could be withdrawn from the aquifer for an indefinite period of time . This pumpage is approximately 5 million gallons per day (219 litres per second) above the projected water needs of Carmel for 1990. Saturated thickness, transmissivity , and storage coefficient of the outwash aquifer along the White River east of Carmel were determined , using available data supplemented by test drilling. The saturated thickness of the aquifer ranges from 10 to 110 feet (3 to 34 metres); transmissivity ranges from 1 , 000 feet squared per day (93 metres squared per day) to 24,000 feet squared per day (2,230 metres squared per day); and the average storage coefficient is 0 . 11. Seepage from the aquifer into the White River was estimated in November 1974, using data from u.S. Geological Survey gaging stations. Water- level information was obtained from a network of observation wells at that same time. Flow in the unconsolidated glacial deposits near the city of Carmel in central Indiana was simulated by a digital-computer model in a study of hydraulic characteristics of the deposits. The study shows that 21.3 million gallons per day (933 litres per second) of additional water could be withdrawn from the aquifer for an indefinite period of time. This pumpage is approximately 5 million gallons per day (219 1itres per second) above the projected water needs of Carmel for 1990. Saturated thickness, transmissivity, and storage coefficient of the outwash aquifer along the White River east of Carmel were determined, using available data supplemented by test drilling . The saturated thickness of the aquifer ranges f r om 10 to 110 feet 0 to 34 me tres); transmissivity ranges from 1,000 feet squared per day (93 metres squared per day) to 24 ,000 feet squared per day (2 ,230 metres squared per day); and the average storage coefficient is 0.11.

Indiana↗

Integrating environmental DNA results with diverse data sets to improve biosurveillance of river health

Autonomous, robotic environmental (e)DNA samplers now make it possible for biological observations to match the scale and quality of abiotic measurements collected by automated sensor networks. Merging these automated data streams may allow for improved insight into biotic responses to environmental change and stressors. Here, we merged eDNA data collected by robotic samplers installed at three U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages with gridded daily weather data, and daily water quality and quantity data into a cloud-hosted database. The eDNA targets were a rare fish parasite and a more common salmonid fish. We then used computationally expedient Bayesian hierarchical occupancy models to evaluate associations between abiotic conditions and eDNA detections and to simulate how uncertainty in result interpretation changes with the frequency of autonomous robotic eDNA sample collection. We developed scripts to automate data merging, cleaning and analysis steps into a chained-step, workflow. We found that inclusion of abiotic covariates only provided improved insight for the more common salmonid fish since its DNA was more frequently detected. Rare fish parasite DNA was infrequently detected, which caused occupancy parameter estimates and covariate associations to have high uncertainty. Our simulations found that collecting samples at least once per day resulted in more detections and less parameter uncertainty than less frequent sampling. Our occupancy and simulation results together demonstrate the advantages of robotic eDNA samplers and how these samples can be combined with easy to acquire, publicly available data to foster real-time biosurveillance and forecasting.

Idaho, Wyoming, Montana↗

Relations between geological structure and aeromagnetic anomalies in central Nevada

An aeromagnetic survey of a 6000-km 2 area in central Nevada has been complied by the U.S. Geological Survey. An interpretation of the aeromagnetic data is developed to establish relations between near-surface geological features and structure extending to intermediate depths in the crust. A three-dimensional distribution of magnetized material is described which would reproduce approximately the observed aeromagnetic anomalies. Anomaly sources extend from the surface to depths exceeding 15 km and require values of magnetic moment per unit volume averaging more than 2000 × 10 −6 (cgs). Magnetic anomaly lineations were analyzed by two methods. The first involves digital fan filtering and subsequent autocovariance computations. This method is sensitive to amplitude of linear anomalies, and indicated a dominant north-northwest trend with approximately 80 percent of the anomaly trend power in an azimuth range of northwest to northeast. The second method involves preparation of rosettes from measured lengths and azimuths of lineations indicated by noses and flexures on the contoured map. This method is not sensitive to anomaly amplitude. The dominant N. 10°E. trend determined in this way is indicative of the effect of near-surface geological structure on the magnetic field. The dominant north-northwest-trending zone of magnetic anomalies is located along an alinement of windows through the Roberts Mountains thrust fault. This suggests that elongate doming of the Paleozoic sedimentary rocks associated with the thrust may be related to emplacement of magnetic anomaly source material, and implies that this has been a zone of recurring tectonic activity since late Paleozoic time. Analysis of stresses possibly associated with forceful injection of magnetic anomaly sources and possible shear deformation along this north-northwest-trending zone suggests that these factors may have had a secondary influence on azimuths of high-angle faults and dikes.

Nevada↗

A surrogate regression approach for computing continuous loads for the tributary nutrient and sediment monitoring program on the Great Lakes

Water quality (WQ) in many Great Lake tributaries has been degraded (increased nutrient and sediment concentrations) due to changes in their watersheds, resulting in downstream eutrophication. As part of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, specific goals were established for loading of specific constituents (e.g., phosphorus). In 2010, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative was launched to identify problem areas, accelerate restoration efforts, and track their progress. In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey established a monitoring program on 30 tributaries to the lakes, representing ~ 46% of the U.S. draining area and the spectrum of land uses. Discrete measurements of nutrients and suspended sediment, and continuous measurements of flow and WQ surrogates (turbidity, temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved oxygen) are being collected in these tributaries to document their WQ and estimate continuous (5-min) loading. To estimate loadings, two regression models were developed for each constituent for each site: one using continuous flow and a seasonality factor; and one using flow, seasonality, and continuous surrogates. Variables included in the final models for each constituent were chosen from the explanatory variables that worked “best” for all sites. In computing loads, when continuous surrogate data were unavailable for short periods, loads were computed using the flow and seasonality models. Prediction intervals for all loads were calculated using results from both models. These results provide a better understanding of short-term variability and long-term changes in loading affecting the environmental health of the Great Lakes than traditional regression techniques that employ only flow and seasonality parameters.

Great Lake↗

Low-flow frequency and flow duration of selected South Carolina streams in the Pee Dee River basin through March 2007

Part of the mission of the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control and the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources is to protect and preserve South Carolina's water resources. Doing so requires an ongoing understanding of streamflow characteristics of the rivers and streams in South Carolina. A particular need is information concerning the low-flow characteristics of streams; this information is especially important for effectively managing the State's water resources during critical flow periods such as the severe drought that occurred between 1998 and 2002 and the most recent drought that occurred between 2006 and 2009. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, initiated a study to update low-flow statistics at continuous-record streamgaging stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in South Carolina. Under this agreement, the low-flow characteristics at continuous-record streamgaging stations will be updated in a systematic manner during the monitoring and assessment of the eight major basins in South Carolina as defined and grouped according to the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control's Watershed Water Quality Management Strategy. Depending on the length of record available at the continuous-record streamgaging stations, low-flow frequency characteristics are estimated for annual minimum 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day average flows with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years. Low-flow statistics are presented for 18 streamgaging stations in the Pee Dee River basin. In addition, daily flow durations for the 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, 90-, and 95-percent probability of exceedance also are presented for the stations. The low-flow characteristics were computed from records available through March 31, 2007. The last systematic update of low-flow characteristics in South Carolina occurred more than 20 years ago and included data through March 1987. Of the 17 streamgaging stations included in this study, 15 had low-flow characteristics that were published in previous U.S. Geological Survey reports. A comparison of the low-flow characteristic for the minimum average flow for a 7-consecutive-day period with a 10-year recurrence interval from this study with the most recently published values indicated that 10 of the 15 streamgaging stations had values that were within ±25 percent of each other. Nine of the 15 streamgaging stations had negative percentage differences indicating the low-flow statistic had decreased since the previous study, 4 streamgaging stations had positive percent differences indicating that the low-flow statistic had increased since the previous study, and 2 streamgaging stations had a zero percent difference indicating no change since the previous study. The low-flow characteristics are influenced by length of record, hydrologic regime under which the record was collected, techniques used to do the analysis, and other changes that may have occurred in the watershed.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗

Archive of digital chirp subbottom profile data collected during USGS cruise 10BIM04 offshore Cat Island, Mississippi, September 2010

In September of 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), conducted a geophysical survey to investigate the geologic controls on barrier island framework of Cat Island, Miss., as part of a broader USGS study on Barrier Island Mapping (BIM). These surveys were funded through the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program (MsCIP) and the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project as part of the Holocene Coastal Evolution of the Mississippi-Alabama Region Subtask. This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital chirp subbottom data, trackline maps, navigation files, GIS files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal FGDC metadata. Gained (showing a relative increase in signal amplitude) digital images of the seismic profiles are also provided. Refer to the Acronyms page for expansions of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. The USGS Saint Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 10BIM04 tells us the data were collected in 2010 during the fourth field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity identification (ID). All chirp systems use a signal of continuously varying frequency; the EdgeTech SB-512i system used during this survey produces high-resolution, shallow-penetration (typically less than 50 milliseconds (ms)) profile images of sub-seafloor stratigraphy. The towfish contains a transducer that transmits and receives acoustic energy; it was housed within a float system (built at the SPCMSC), which allows the towfish to be towed at a constant depth of 1.07 meters (m) below the sea surface. As transmitted acoustic energy intersects density boundaries, such as the seafloor or sub-surface sediment layers, some energy is reflected back toward the transducer, received, and recorded by a Personal Computer (PC)-based seismic acquisition system. This process is repeated at regular time intervals (for example, 0.125 seconds (s)), and returned energy is recorded for a specific duration (for example, 50 ms). In this way, a two-dimensional (2-D) vertical image of the shallow geologic structure beneath the ship track is produced. Figure 1 displays the acquisition geometry. Refer to table 1 for a summary of acquisition parameters and table 2 for trackline statistics. The archived trace data are in standard Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG Y rev. 0 format (Barry and others, 1975); the first 3,200 bytes of the card image header are in American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) format instead of Extended Binary Coded Decimal Interchange Code (EBCDIC) format. The SEG Y files may be downloaded and processed with commercial or public domain software such as Seismic Unix (SU) (Cohen and Stockwell, 2010). See the How To Download SEG Y Data page for download instructions. The printable profiles provided here are GIF images that were processed and gained using SU software, and they can be viewed from the Profiles page or from links located on the trackline maps; refer to the Software page for links to example SU processing scripts. The SEG Y files are available on the DVD version of this report or on the Web, downloadable via the USGS Coastal and Marine Geoscience Data System (http://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov). The data are also available for viewing using GeoMapApp (http://www.geomapapp.org) and Virtual Ocean (http://www.virtualocean.org) multi-platform open source software.

Mississippi↗

Continuous turbidity data used to compute constituent concentrations in the South Loup River, Nebraska, 2017–18

The South Loup River in central Nebraska has been impaired by bacteria since at least 2004, which has resulted in the river not meeting its intended use as a recreational waterway. As part of a strategy for reducing the bacterial load in the river, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lower Loup Natural Resources District, made continuous estimates of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) and nutrient concentrations during seasonal monitoring at the South Loup River at Saint Michael, Nebraska, during 2017–18. Continuous turbidity data were collected from mid-April through October in 2017 and 2018 and were paired with 35 co-occurring discrete water samples that were analyzed for E. coli , nutrients, and suspended solids. Surrogate models relating the discrete concentrations to the continuous turbidity data were developed using ordinary-least-squares regression and were evaluated for model performance and uncertainty. Although the model assumptions were met for E. coli , the imprecision of the E. coli model was considerably higher than the other constituents, probably because of measurement imprecision and greater sensitivity to environmental factors. Once the models were developed, the turbidity data were used to predict continuous constituent concentrations and corresponding prediction intervals, which were made available online as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. It is expected that results from these models will provide stakeholders with an understanding of constituent concentrations during the 2017–18 monitoring period and the results will also provide a good reference point for any future comparisons.

Nebraska↗

Surface wave site characterization at 27 locations near Boston, Massachusetts, including 2 strong-motion stations

The geotechnical properties of the soils in and around Boston, Massachusetts, have been extensively studied. This is partly due to the importance of the Boston Blue Clay and the extent of landfill in the Boston area. Although New England is not a region that is typically associated with seismic hazards, there have been several historical earthquakes that have caused significant ground shaking (for example, see Street and Lacroix, 1979; Ebel, 1996; Ebel, 2006). The possibility of strong ground shaking, along with heightened vulnerability from unreinforced masonry buildings, motivates further investigation of seismic hazards throughout New England. Important studies that are pertinent to seismic hazards in New England include source-parameter studies (Somerville and others, 1987; Boore and others, 2010), wave-propagation studies (Frankel, 1991; Viegas and others, 2010), empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) for computing ground-motion intensity (Tavakoli and Pezeshk, 2005; Atkinson and Boore, 2006), site-response studies (Hayles and others, 2001; Ebel and Kim, 2006), and liquefaction studies (Brankman and Baise, 2008). The shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles collected for this report are pertinent to the GMPE, site response, and liquefaction aspects of seismic hazards in the greater Boston area. Besides the application of these data for the Boston region, the data may be applicable throughout New England, through correlations with geologic units (similar to Ebel and Kim, 2006) or correlations with topographic slope (Wald and Allen, 2007), because few VS measurements are available in stable tectonic regions. Ebel and Hart (2001) used felt earthquake reports to infer amplification patterns throughout the greater Boston region and noted spatial correspondence with the dominant period and amplification factors obtained from ambient noise (horizontal-to-vertical ratios) by Kummer (1998). Britton (2003) compiled geotechnical borings in the area and produced a microzonation map based on generalized velocity profiles, where the amplifications were computed using Shake (Schnable and others, 1972), along with an assumed input ground motion. The velocities were constrained by only a few local measurements associated with the Central Artery/Tunnel project. The additional VS measurements presented in this report provide a number of benefits. First, these measurements provide improved spatial coverage. Second, the larger sample size provides better constraints on the mean and variance of the VS distribution for each layer, which may be paired with a three-dimensional (3D) model of the stratigraphy to generate one-dimensional (1D) profiles for use in a standard site-response analysis (for example, Britton, 2003). Third, the velocity profiles may also be used, along with a 3D model of the stratigraphy, as input into a 3D simulation of the ground motion to investigate the effects of basin-generated surface waves and the potential focusing of seismic waves. This report begins with a short review of the geology of the study area and the field methods that we used to estimate the velocity profiles. The raw data, processed data, and the interpreted VS profiles are given in appendix 1. Photographs and descriptions of the sites are provided in appendix 2.

Massachusetts↗

Conjoint use of hydraulic head and groundwater age data to detect hydrogeologic barriers

Hydraulic head and groundwater age data are effective in building understanding of groundwater systems. Yet their joint role in detecting and characterising low-permeability geological structures, i.e. hydrogeologic barriers such as faults and dykes, has not been widely studied. Here, numerical flow and transport models, using MODFLOW-NWT and MT3D-USGS, were developed with different hydrogeologic barrier configurations in a hypothetical aquifer. Computed hydraulic head and groundwater age distributions were compared to those without a barrier. The conjoint use of these datasets helps in detecting vertically-oriented barriers. Two forms of recharge were compared: (1) applied across the entire aquifer surface (uniform), and (2) applied to the upstream part of the aquifer (upgradient). The hydraulic head distribution is significantly impacted by a barrier that penetrates the aquifer’s full vertical thickness. This barrier also perturbs the groundwater age distribution when upgradient recharge prevails; however, with uniform recharge, groundwater age is not successful in detecting the barrier. When a barrier is buried, such as by younger sediment, hydraulic head data also do not clearly identify the barrier. Groundwater age data could, on the other hand, prove to be useful if sampled at depth-specific intervals. These results are important for the detection and characterisation of hydrogeologic barriers, which may play a significant role in the compartmentalisation of groundwater flow, spring dynamics, and drawdown and recovery associated with groundwater extraction.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Automated location correction and spot height generation for named summits in the coterminous United States

Spot elevations published on historical U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps were established as needed to enhance information imparted by the quadrangle’s contours. In addition to other features, labels were routinely placed on mountain summits. While some elevations were established through field survey triangulation, many were computed during photogrammetric stereo-compilation. Today, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers have replaced expensive triangulation methods. However, since GNSS measurements require visiting the feature location, a national dataset containing high-accuracy spot elevations has not yet been created. Consequently, modern U.S. Topo maps are devoid of mountain peak or other spot elevations. Still, topographic map users continue to demand the display of spot heights. Therefore, a pilot study was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of automatically generating elevation values at named U.S. summits using available elevation data. The devised method uses an uphill stepping technique to find the most likely highest point in subsequently higher-resolution elevation models. Resulting elevation values are compared to other published sources. Results from 196 summits indicate that values derived from lidar are generally higher, whereas those populated from the one-third arc-second USGS Seamless 3DEP elevation dataset are generally lower. A thorough understanding of these relationships require the evaluation of more points.

International Journal of Digital Earth↗

Dynamic computer model for the metallogenesis and tectonics of the Circum-North Pacific

The digital files on this report consist of a dynamic computer model of the metallogenesis and tectonics of the Circum-North Pacific, and background articles, figures, and maps. The tectonic part of the dynamic computer model is derived from a major analysis of the tectonic evolution of the Circum-North Pacific which is also contained in directory tectevol. The dynamic computer model and associated materials on this CD-ROM are part of a project on the major mineral deposits, metallogenesis, and tectonics of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera. The project provides critical information on bedrock geology and geophysics, tectonics, major metalliferous mineral resources, metallogenic patterns, and crustal origin and evolution of mineralizing systems for this region. The major scientific goals and benefits of the project are to: (1) provide a comprehensive international data base on the mineral resources of the region that is the first, extensive knowledge available in English; (2) provide major new interpretations of the origin and crustal evolution of mineralizing systems and their host rocks, thereby enabling enhanced, broad-scale tectonic reconstructions and interpretations; and (3) promote trade and scientific and technical exchanges between North America and Eastern Asia.

Open-File Report↗

Variability of differences between two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage, including effects of time trends, Lower Arkansas River Basin, southeastern Colorado, 1998-2002

In the mid-1990s, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted rules governing measurement of tributary ground-water pumpage for the Arkansas River Basin. The rules allowed ground-water pumpage to be determined using one of two approaches?power conversion coefficient (PCC) or totalizing flowmeters (TFM). In addition, the rules allowed a PCC to be applied to the electrical power usage up to 4 years in the future to estimate ground-water pumpage. As a result of concerns about potential errors in applying the PCC approach forward in time, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with CDWR and Colorado Water Conservation Board, to evaluate the variability in differences in pumpage between the two approaches, including the effects of time trends. This report compared measured ground-water pumpage using TFMs to computed ground-water pumpage using PCCs by developing statistical models of relations between explanatory variables, such as site, time, and pumping water level, and dependent variables, which are based on discharge, PCC, and pumpage. When differences in pumpage (diffP) were computed using PCC measurements and power consumption for the same year (1998-2002), the median diffP, depending on the year, ranged from +0.1 to -2.9 percent; the median diffP for the entire period was -1.5 percent. However, when diffP was computed using PCC measurements applied to the next year's power consumption, the median diffP was -0.3 percent; and when PCC measurements were applied 2, 3, or 4 years into the future, median diffPs were +1.8 percent for a 2-year forward lag and +5.3 percent for a 4-year forward lag, indicating that pumpage computed with the PCC approach, as generally applied under the ground-water pumpage measurement rules by CDWR, tended to overestimate pumpage as compared to pumpage using TFMs when PCC measurement was applied to future years of measured power consumption. Analyses were done to better understand the causes of the time trend; an estimate of the overall trend with time (uncorrected for pumping water-level changes) yielded a trend of about 2.2 percent per lag year for diffP. A separate analysis that incorporated a surface-water diversion term in the statistical model rendered the time-trend term insignificant, indicating that the time trend in the models served as a surrogate for other variables, some of which reflect underlying hydrologic conditions. A more precise explanation of the potential causes of the time trend was not obtained with the available data. However, the model results with the surface-water diversion term indicate that much of the trend of 2.2 percent per lag year in diffP resulted from applying a PCC to estimate pumpage under hydrologic conditions different from those under which the PCC was measured. Although there is no evidence to conclude that the upward time trend determined in the data for this 5-year period would hold in the future, historical static ground-water levels in the study area generally have exhibited small variations over multidecadal time scales. Therefore, the approximately 2 percent per lag year trend determined in these data is expected to be a reasonable guideline for estimating potential errors in the PCC approach resulting from temporally varying hydrologic conditions between time of PCC measurement and pumpage estimation. Comparisons also were made between total, or aggregated, pumpage for a network of wells as computed by the PCC approach and the TFM approach. For 100 wells and a lag of 4 years between PCC measurement and pumpage estimation, there was a 95-percent probability that the difference between total network pumpage measured by the PCC approach and that measured using a TFM would be between 5.2 and 14.4 percent. These estimates were based on a bias of 2.2 percent per lag year estimated for the period 1998-2002 during which hydrologic conditions were known to have changed. Using the same assumptions, the estimated d

Scientific Investigations Report↗

HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Techniques and Methods↗

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

A two-stage step-wise framework for fast optimization of well placement in coalbed methane reservoirs

Coalbed methane (CBM) has emerged as a clean energy resource in the global energy mix, especially in countries such as Australia, China, India and the USA. The economical and successful development of CBM requires a thorough evaluation and optimization of well placement prior to field-scale exploitation. This paper presents a two-stage, step-wise optimization framework to obtain the optimal placement of wells for large-scale development of CBM reservoirs. In the first stage, an optimal uniform well pattern is obtained by optimizing well pattern description parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Subsequently, the location and status (active/inactive) of each well are perturbed and optimized within the patterns through the integration of the generalized pattern search (GPS) algorithm and a quality map (QM) representing the production potential. This framework was tested in a synthetic anthracite CBM reservoir in the Qinshui basin (with high gas content and low permeability) and a real field high volatile bituminous reservoir in the Illinois basin (with low gas content and high permeability). The results show that: (i) significant variations in the net present value (NPV) exist with respect to different uniform well patterns (even for cases where the total number of wells are identical), the optima of which can be efficiently determined by the PSO within 100 numerical simulation runs; (ii) the optimization of well perturbations by the GPS results in a more noticeable improvement in NPVs for the synthetic (12.3%) than for the real field model (4.6%); (iii) for the low permeable synthetic model with narrow optimal well spacings (320 m × 200 m), the contribution of the optimization of well perturbation to the NPV increment is heavily dependent on the uniform well placement solution; (iv) for the high permeable real field model with large optimal well spacings (1300 m × 1300 m), the initial uniform well placement has a very minor effect on the subsequent well perturbation solutions in terms of NPV; (v) the proposed framework significantly outperforms the conventional well-by-well concatenation procedure in terms of computational efficiency, robustness and optimal criteria set for production potential.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗