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Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Nature Communications↗

Local adaptation to climate has facilitated the global invasion of cheatgrass

Local adaptation may facilitate range expansion during invasions, but the mechanisms promoting destructive invasions remain unclear. Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), native to Eurasia and Africa, has invaded globally, with particularly severe impacts in western North America. We aimed to identify mechanisms and consequences of local adaptation in the North American cheatgrass invasion. We sequenced 307 range-wide genotypes and conducted controlled experiments. We found that diverse lineages invaded North America, where long-distance gene flow is common. Nearly half of North American cheatgrass is comprised of a mosaic of ~19 locally adapted near clonal genotypes, each seemingly very successful in a different part of its range. Additionally, ancestry- and phenotype- environment clines in the native range predicted those in the invaded range, indicating pre-adapted genotypes colonized different regions. Common gardens showed directional selection on flowering time that reversed between warm and cold sites, potentially maintaining clines. In the Great Basin, genomic predictions of strong local adaptation identified sites where cheatgrass is most dominant. Our results indicate that multiple introductions and ongoing migration within the invaded range likely fueled pre-adaptation and subsequent dominance of cheatgrass in western North America. Understanding how environment and gene flow shape invasive adaptation is critical for managing ongoing invasions.

Nature Communications↗

Previous prescribed burns saved thousands of ancient sequoias during historically unprecedented wildfires

Wildfires in California’s Sierra Nevada during 2020–2021 killed giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) at rates unseen for millennia, underscoring the vulnerability of highly fire-adapted trees to ongoing environmental change. Following a century of fire exclusion and fuel accumulation, the effectiveness of prescribed burns in reducing giant sequoia mortality from wildfire remained poorly quantified. Here we estimate mortality outcomes for 26,403 giant sequoias across 19 groves in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks following the Castle (2020) and KNP Complex (2021) wildfires using a Bayesian framework. We map tree mortality using a deep learning classifier integrating 3 m PlanetScope imagery, airborne lidar, and field observations. From an estimated 7,974 sequoia deaths (95% Bayesian credible interval (CI): 7,555–8,430), corresponding to 30.2% mortality (CI: 28.6–31.9%), we find previous prescribed burns (≤10 years prior) reduced mortality odds by 77% (CI: 69–83%), making treated trees nearly four times more likely to survive. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prescribed burns prevented at least 1,888 (CI: 1,487–2,302) deaths, and universal treatment would have saved an additional 3,888 (CI: 3,236–4,580) giant sequoias. These results show that prescribed burns substantially improve survival during extreme wildfires, offering guidance for conserving long-lived, fire-adapted forests under intensifying fire regimes.

California↗

Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States

Atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur pollution increased over much of the United States during the twentieth century from fossil fuel combustion and industrial agriculture. Despite recent declines, nitrogen and sulfur deposition continue to affect many plant communities in the United States, although which species are at risk remains uncertain. We used species composition data from >14,000 survey sites across the contiguous United States to evaluate the association between nitrogen and sulfur deposition and the probability of occurrence for 348 herbaceous species. We found that the probability of occurrence for 70% of species was negatively associated with nitrogen or sulfur deposition somewhere in the contiguous United States (56% for N, 51% for S). Of the species, 15% and 51% potentially decreased at all nitrogen and sulfur deposition rates, respectively, suggesting thresholds below the minimum deposition they receive. Although more species potentially increased than decreased with nitrogen deposition, increasers tended to be introduced and decreasers tended to be higher-value native species. More vulnerable species tended to be shorter with lower tissue nitrogen and magnesium. These relationships constitute predictive equations to estimate critical loads. These results demonstrate that many herbaceous species may be at risk from atmospheric deposition and can inform improvements to air quality policies in the United States and globally.

Contiguous United States↗

Availability of subsurface water-ice resources in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars

Multiple nations and private entities are pushing to make landing humans on Mars a reality. The majority of proposed mission architectures envision ‘living off the land’ by leveraging Martian water-ice deposits for fuel production and other purposes. Fortunately for mission designers, water ice exists on Mars in plentiful volumes. The challenge is isolating accessible ice deposits within regions that optimize other preferred landing-site conditions. Here we present the first results of the Mars Subsurface Water Ice Mapping (SWIM) project, which has the aim of searching for buried ice resources across the mid-latitudes. Through the integration of orbital datasets in concert with new data-processing techniques, the SWIM project assesses the likelihood of ice by quantifying the consistency of multiple, independent data sources with the presence of ice. Concentrating our efforts across the majority of the northern hemisphere, our composite ice-consistency maps indicate that the broad plains of Arcadia and the extensive glacial networks across Deuteronilus Mensae match the greatest number of remote-sensing criteria for accessible ice-rich, subsurface material situated equatorwards of the contemporary ice-stability zone.

Nature Astronomy↗

Drivers of wildfire carbon emissions

Increasing fire frequency and severity may shift boreal forests from carbon sinks to carbon sources and amplify climate warming. Analysis indicates that that fuel characteristics are important drivers of wildfire carbon emissions across a broad range of North America’s boreal forest.

Nature Climate Change↗

Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts

Fossil fuel dependence can be reduced, in part, by renewable energy expansion. Increasingly, renewable energy siting seeks to avoid significant impacts on biodiversity but rarely considers how species ranges will shift under climate change. Here we undertake a systematic literature review on the topic and overlay future renewable energy siting maps with the ranges of two threatened species under future climate scenarios to highlight this potential conflict.

Nature Climate Change↗

Maintaining momentum for collaborative working groups in a post-pandemic world

Scientific progress depends in part on our ability to synthesize heterogeneous data and ideas into new models and paradigms. In environmental sciences, such synthesis has been particularly effective when conducted by collaborative working groups: diverse groups of researchers and practitioners brought together for a concentrated period of collaboration on key questions. Such work is often done at synthesis centres: organizations that promote, fund, organize and host working groups and other collaborative research and training activities 1 . However, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, synthesis centres have had to rapidly adapt to supporting fully virtual working groups; the eight centres we direct supported 68 virtual working groups in the past year. Based on this experience, we conclude — contrary to a recent editorial on conferences published in this journal 2 — that virtual gatherings, while providing a bridge during the pandemic, cannot replace immersive, in-person collaborations. In-person working group meetings involve productive and varied interactions for many hours over consecutive days. We have found that virtual sessions lose effectiveness after a few hours, as participants become fatigued from staring at a screen or juggling local demands. While virtual meetings can work for short, well-delineated tasks, they are less suited for unstructured and free-flowing discussions — and thus struggle to create the social cohesion and trust known to fuel creative breakthroughs during week-long in-person meetings 3 .

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗

Fungal impacts on Earth’s ecosystems

Over the past billion years, the fungal kingdom has diversified to more than two million species, with over 95% still undescribed. Beyond the well-known macroscopic mushrooms and microscopic yeast, fungi are heterotrophs that feed on almost any organic carbon, recycling nutrients through the decay of dead plants and animals and sequestering carbon into Earth’s ecosystems. Human-directed applications of fungi extend from leavened bread, alcoholic beverages and biofuels to pharmaceuticals, including antibiotics and psychoactive compounds. Conversely, fungal infections pose risks to ecosystems ranging from crops to wildlife to humans; these risks are driven, in part, by human and animal movement, and might be accelerating with climate change. Genomic surveys are expanding our knowledge of the true biodiversity of the fungal kingdom, and genome-editing tools make it possible to imagine harnessing these organisms to fuel the bioeconomy. Here, we examine the fungal threats facing civilization and investigate opportunities to use fungi to combat these threats.

Nature↗

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH 4 ) and CO 2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH 4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Scientific Reports↗

Blind testing of shoreline evolution models

Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. In general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999–2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014–2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models’ capability to predict the shoreline position. This was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models.

Scientific Reports↗

Geodetic monitoring of the recent activity and the dome forming eruption at Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia), 2010–2023

Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia) is infamous for the catastrophic eruption of 1985 that destroyed the villages of Armero and Chinchiná. However, this was not the volcano’s first destructive event; similar eruptions also occurred in 1595 and 1845. In 1985, the limited geodetic data available failed to provide a clear warning of the impending eruption. Since then, advancement in geodetic monitoring, now incorporating tilt and satellite geodesy, along with improvements in seismic, geochemical, geological and remote sensing monitoring, have enhanced hazards assessment and mitigated the risk during subsequent eruptions in 1989, 2012, and 2015–2019, as well as during periods of unrest over the last 13 years. Modeling of deformation data over the past 13 years reveals complex interactions between the local, shallow magmatic system beneath Nevado del Ruiz and a deep, regional magmatic system beneath Nevado de Santa Isabel, 9 km southwest of Nevado del Ruiz. Before February 2012, the volcano deflated because of the depressurization of the local shallow reservoir. This same reservoir later fueled ash emissions and gas release (2012–2023), and a dome-forming eruption (2015–2019). In contrast, the inflation observed from 2012 to 2023 is linked to the pressurization of the deep reservoir beneath the Nevado de Santa Isabel.

Nevado del Ruiz↗

Influence of new residential construction varying in housing density on bird species, human tolerance guilds, and communities

Human population growth and changing settlement patterns fuel the development of urban fringe lands worldwide, with implications for biodiversity. We conducted a 12-year study of birds in the fast-developing urban fringe lands of the central Puget Sound region, Washington, USA, to examine the effect of development configuration on birds. We hypothesized that lower-intensity conservation developments, compared to higher-intensity planned community developments, would benefit the overall bird community, as well as native forest birds (avoiders of human development) and avian generalist species (adapters to human development), but that higher-intensity planned community developments would benefit synanthropic species (exploiters of human development). We fit single-species and multi-species occupancy models to test these hypotheses. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found that a greater proportion of the overall community, avoiders, and adapters occupied lower-intensity conservation developments compared to higher-intensity planned community developments. However, we did not detect an effect of development type on the exploiter guild, and we found that species in the exploiter guild are variable in their response to the configuration of suburban developments. We also hypothesized that human tolerance guilds would be a useful predictor of individual species responses to development type. This hypothesis was somewhat supported: we found that, for avoiders, 87% of species in the guild had the same response to development type as the overall guild; for adapters, 63% had the same response as the overall guild, and for exploiters, only 44% had the same response as the overall guild. Our results indicate that the configuration of suburban developments can have a meaningful impact on bird communities, particularly on those species that are most sensitive to any level of development.

Washington↗

Forest cutting and impacts on carbon in the eastern United States

Forest cutting is a major anthropogenic disturbance that affects forest carbon (C) storage and fluxes. Yet its characteristics and impacts on C cycling are poorly understood over large areas. Using recent annualized forest inventory data, we estimated cutting-related loss of live biomass in the eastern United States was 168 Tg C yr −1 from 2002 to 2010 (with C loss per unit forest area of 1.07 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ), which is equivalent to 70% of the total U.S. forest C sink or 11% of the national annual CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion over the same period. We further revealed that specific cutting-related C loss varied with cutting intensities, forest types, stand ages, and geographic locations. Our results provide new insights to the characteristics of forest harvesting activities in the eastern United States and highlight the significance of partial cutting to regional and national carbon budgets.

Scientific Reports↗

Geochemistry and mineralogy of metallurgical slag

Slag is a waste product from the pyrometallurgical processing of natural ores or the recycling of man-made materials. This chapter provides an overview of the geochemical and mineralogical characteristics of different types of slag. A review of the analytical methods used to determine these characteristics is also provided. Ferrous slags include blast furnace, steelmaking, and ferroalloy slags; the compositions of these slags are generally dominated by Ca and Si, some with significant Al, Fe, and/or Mg. Whereas, the composition of non-ferrous slags, mostly from base-metal production, are generally dominated by Fe and Si with significant but lesser amounts of Al and Ca. As for primary mineralogical phases, olivine-group phases, spinels, and glass are common among all types of slag. Other silicates such as melilite, pyroxene, feldspars, and oxides also occur. Sulfides are more common in non-ferrous slags and metals and intermetallic compounds can be found in both base-metal and ferrous slags. Carbonates are generally exclusive of ferrous slags. The chemical composition of slag depends on the furnace feed, fluxes, fuel source, and furnace conditions and efficiency of metal extraction. The chemistry and texture of mineralogical phases found in slag reflect melt composition and cooling rates. Overall, the mineralogy and chemistry of slags will determine its fate as an environmental liability or a valuable resource.

Book chapter↗

History and management of crown-fire ecosystems: A summary and response

Some ecosystems, such as yellow pine forests, have had a long history of frequent surface fires, but because of fire suppression policy, fires have been largely excluded from them during the last century (Covington 2000). Unnatural fuel accumulation in these forests has increased the potential for large, catastrophic crown fires, and re-introduction of prescribed fire is one remedy for this critical fire hazard. But fire ecologists and fire managers need to be cautious in transferring this model to all western ecosystems (Anderson et al. 1999; Gutsell et al. 2001). Although large, catastrophic crown fires are apparently unnatural in yellow pine forests (but cf. Shinneman & Baker 1997 ), this is not so in other western forests and shrub-lands, and widespread prescription burning is not warranted everywhere.

Conservation Biology↗

Practitioners’ perceived risks to biodiversity from renewable energy expansion through 2050

Large-scale (e.g., > 1 megawatt capacity) wind and solar energy (hereafter, LSWS) developments are increasing to aid decarbonization. However, LSWS can also negatively affect biodiversity. Planners and other interested parties’ perceptions about the impact of LSWS on biodiversity will thus affect how trade-offs are managed during planning and buildout. We present a survey of professionals (n=116) working at the intersection of LSWS and biodiversity protection across the United States concerning: (1) perceived environmental impacts from LSWS expansion; and (2) how these impacts compare to other land-use and land-cover change drivers. We find that practitioners perceive LSWS to impact biodiversity negatively but less so than other land-cover change drivers, including fossil fuels and agriculture. This highlights the need for increased attention to the role of practitioners in advancing renewable energy and biodiversity conservation.

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications↗

Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (198696)

The temporal and spatial structure of 332 404 daily fire-start records from the western United States for the period 1986 through 1996 is illustrated using several complimentary visualisation techniques. We supplement maps and time series plots with Hovmo??ller diagrams that reduce the spatial dimensionality of the daily data in order to reveal the underlying space?time structure. The mapped distributions of all lightning- and human-started fires during the 11-year interval show similar first-order patterns that reflect the broad-scale distribution of vegetation across the West and the annual cycle of climate. Lightning-started fires are concentrated in the summer half-year and occur in widespread outbreaks that last a few days and reflect coherent weather-related controls. In contrast, fires started by humans occur throughout the year and tend to be concentrated in regions surrounding large-population centres or intensive-agricultural areas. Although the primary controls of human-started fires are their location relative to burnable fuel and the level of human activity, spatially coherent, weather-related variations in their incidence can also be noted. ?? IAWF 2008.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗