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At least 883 records · Page 49Linked to original sources

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use change and sensitivity to snow and interannual albedo variability

Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm −2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm −2 ) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm −2 ) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

Transient groundwater chemistry near a river: Effects on U(VI) transport in laboratory column experiments

In the 300 Area of a U(VI)-contaminated aquifer at Hanford, Washington, USA, inorganic carbon and major cations, which have large impacts on U(VI) transport, change on an hourly and seasonal basis near the Columbia River. Batch and column experiments were conducted to investigate the factors controlling U(VI) adsorption/desorption by changing chemical conditions over time. Low alkalinity and low Ca concentrations (Columbia River water) enhanced adsorption and reduced aqueous concentrations. Conversely, high alkalinity and high Ca concentrations (Hanford groundwater) reduced adsorption and increased aqueous concentrations of U(VI). An equilibrium surface complexation model calibrated using laboratory batch experiments accounted for the decrease in U(VI) adsorption observed with increasing (bi)carbonate concentrations and other aqueous chemical conditions. In the column experiment, alternating pulses of river and groundwater caused swings in aqueous U(VI) concentration. A multispecies multirate surface complexation reactive transport model simulated most of the major U(VI) changes in two column experiments. The modeling results also indicated that U(VI) transport in the studied sediment could be simulated by using a single kinetic rate without loss of accuracy in the simulations. Moreover, the capability of the model to predict U(VI) transport in Hanford groundwater under transient chemical conditions depends significantly on the knowledge of real-time change of local groundwater chemistry.

Washington↗

Glacial influence on the geochemistry of riverine iron fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and effects of deglaciation

Riverine iron (Fe) derived from glacial weathering is a critical micronutrient source to ecosystems of the Gulf of Alaska (GoA). Here we demonstrate that the source and chemical nature of riverine Fe input to the GoA could change dramatically due to the widespread watershed deglaciation that is underway. We examine Fe size partitioning, speciation, and isotopic composition in tributaries of the Copper River which exemplify a long-term GoA watershed evolution from one strongly influenced by glacial weathering to a boreal-forested watershed. Iron fluxes from glacierized tributaries bear high suspended sediment and colloidal Fe loads of mixed valence silicate species, with low concentrations of dissolved Fe and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Iron isotopic composition is indicative of mechanical weathering as the Fe source. Conversely, Fe fluxes from boreal-forested systems have higher dissolved Fe concentrations corresponding to higher DOC concentrations. Iron colloids and suspended sediment consist of Fe (hydr)oxides and organic complexes. These watersheds have an iron isotopic composition indicative of an internal chemical processing source. We predict that as the GoA watershed evolves due to deglaciation, so will the source, flux, and chemical nature of riverine Fe loads, which could have significant ramifications for Alaskan marine and freshwater ecosystems.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Uplift history of the Sila Massif, southern Italy, deciphered from cosmogenic 10 Be erosion rates and river longitudinal profile analysis

The Sila Massif in the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy) is a key site to study the response of a landscape to rock uplift. Here an uplift rate of ∼1 mm/yr has imparted a deep imprint on the Sila landscape recorded by a high-standing low-relief surface on top of the massif, deeply incised fluvial valleys along its flanks, and flights of marine terraces in the coastal belt. In this framework, we combined river longitudinal profile analysis with hillslope erosion rates calculated by 10 Be content in modern fluvial sediments to reconstruct the long-term uplift history of the massif. Cosmogenic data show a large variation in erosion rates, marking two main domains. The samples collected in the high-standing low-relief surface atop Sila provide low erosion rates (from 0.09 ± 0.01 to 0.13 ± 0.01 mm/yr). Conversely, high values of erosion rate (up to 0.92 ± 0.08 mm/yr) characterize the incised fluvial valleys on the massif flanks. The analyzed river profiles exhibit a wide range of shapes diverging from the commonly accepted equilibrium concave-up form. Generally, the studied river profiles show two or, more frequently, three concave-up segments bounded by knickpoints and characterized by different values of concavity and steepness indices. The wide variation in cosmogenic erosion rates and the non-equilibrated river profiles indicate that the Sila landscape is in a transient state of disequilibrium in response to a strong and unsteady uplift not yet counterbalanced by erosion.

Sila Massif↗

Relationships between Δ 14 C and the molecular quality of dissolved organic carbon in rivers draining to the coast from the conterminous United States

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in natural waters possesses chemical and molecular qualities indicative of its source and age. The apportionment of DOC by age into millennial and decadal pools is necessary to understand the temporal connection between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. We measured Δ 14 C-DOC and chemical composition indices (specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA 254 ), fluorescence index (FI), hydrophobic organic acid fraction (HPOA) content) for 15 large river basins in the conterminous United States. Across all rivers the average proportion of HPOA in DOC correlated strongly with SUVA 254 (r 2 = 0.93 p < 0.001). Individual Δ 14 C-DOC ranged from a low of −92.9‰ (726 y.b.p.) in the Colorado River to 73.4‰ (>Modern) in the Altamaha River for the year 2009. When adjusted by total discharge, these U.S. Rivers export modern carbon at between 34 and 46‰, a signal dominated by the Mississippi River. The variation in Δ 14 C correlates to indices of the aromaticity of the DOC measured by the SUVA 254 (r 2 = 0.87, p < 0.001), and FI (r 2 = 0.6; p < 0.001) as well as differences in annual river discharge (r 2 = 0.46, p < 0.006). SUVA 254 was further correlated to broad scale vegetation phenology estimated from the Enhanced Vegetation Index derived from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). We show that basins with high discharge, high proportions of vegetation cover, and low human population densities export DOC enriched in aromatic material that corresponds to recently fixed atmospheric CO 2 . Conversely old DOC is exported from low discharge watersheds draining arid regions, and watersheds more strongly impacted by humans. The potential influence from fossil carbon from human inputs to aquatic systems may be important and requires more research.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

Juan de Fuca slab geometry and its relation to Wadati-Benioff zone seismicity

A new model of the subducted Juan de Fuca plate beneath western North America allows first-order correlations between the occurrence of Wadati-Benioff zone earthquakes and slab geometry, temperature, and hydration state. The geo-referenced 3D model, constructed from weighted control points, integrates depth information from earthquake locations and regional seismic velocity studies. We use the model to separate earthquakes that occur in the Cascadia forearc from those that occur within the underlying Juan de Fuca plate and thereby reveal previously obscured details regarding the spatial distribution of earthquakes. Seismicity within the slab is most prevalent where the slab is warped beneath northwestern California and western Washington suggesting that slab flexure, in addition to expected metamorphic dehydration processes, promotes earthquake occurrence within the subducted oceanic plate. Earthquake patterns beneath western Vancouver Island are consistent with slab dehydration processes. Conversely, the lack of slab earthquakes beneath western Oregon is consistent with an anhydrous slab. Double-differenced relocated seismicity resolves a double seismic zone within the slab beneath northwestern California that strongly constrains the location of the plate interface and delineates a cluster of seismicity 10 km above the surface that includes the 1992 M7.1 Mendocino earthquake. We infer that this earthquake ruptured a surface within the Cascadia accretionary margin above the Juan de Fuca plate. We further speculate that this earthquake is associated with a detached fragment of former Farallon plate. Other subsurface tectonic elements within the forearc may have the potential to generate similar damaging earthquakes.

British Columbia;California;Oregon;Washington↗

The geomagnetic blitz of September 1941

Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered. Auroras danced across the night sky as voltage surged in power grid lines. A radio blackout interrupted fan enjoyment of a baseball game, while another radio program was interrupted by private phone conversations. Citizens, already on edge, wondered if neon lights were some sort of antiaircraft signal. And far away in the North Atlantic, the illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. These effects raised awareness within the scientific community and among the public of the societal significance of the effects that the Sun and outer space can have on the Earth—what we now call space weather .

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

Spatial and temporal variability of pCO2, carbon fluxes and saturation state on the West Florida Shelf

The West Florida Shelf (WFS) is a source of uncertainty for the Gulf of Mexico carbon budget. Data from the synthesis of approximately 135,000 pCO2 values from over 96 cruises from the WFS show that the shelf waters fluctuate between being a weak source to a weak sink of carbon with the atmosphere. Overall, the shelf acts as a weak source of CO2 at 0.32 ± 1.5 mol m-2 yr-1. Subregions, however, reveal slightly different trends, where surface waters associated with 40 m – 200 m isobaths in the northern and southern WFS are generally weak sinks all year, except for summer when they act as sources of CO2. Conversely, nearshore waters (< 40 m) are a source of CO2 are a source all year round, particularly the southern shallow waters. The pCO2 of seawater has been increasing at a rate of approximately 5.26 µatm yr-1 as compared to atmospheric pCO2 which has increased at a rate of about 1.7 µatm yr-1 from 1996 to 2016. The pCO2 and CO2 flux on the shelf from 1996 - 2016 have increased about 49 µatm, and 1.08 mol m-2, respectively. The WFS is emitting 9.23 Tg C yr-1, with the southern nearshore region emitting the most at 9.01 Tg C yr-1 and the northern region acting as a sink of -1.96 Tg C yr-1.

West Florida shelf↗

Planetary sensor models interoperability using the community sensor model specification

This paper presents the photogrammetric foundations upon which the Community Sensor Model specification depends, describes common coordinate system and reference frame transformations that support conversion between image sensor (charge‐coupled device) coordinates to some arbitrary body coordinate, and describes the U.S. Geological Survey Astrogeology Community Sensor Model implementation ( https://github.com/USGS-Astrogeology/usgscsm ). We present a new image support data specification that provides the position, pointing, timing, and metadata information necessary to properly locate a pixel or observations location on a body and describe a system architecture designed to explicitly identify the responsibilities of software components within a larger pipeline or analytical environment. This paper concludes with a set of experiments that illustrate positional and pointing error in the sensor location and the impact on the computed surface location.

Earth and Space Science↗

Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change

We examine the annual, seasonal, monthly, and diurnal climate responses to the land use change (LUC) in eastern United States and Cuba during four epochs (1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992) with ensemble simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional climate model that includes the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS1e) surface physics package (Dickinson et al., 1993). We derived the land use (LU) data sets by harmonizing a previous reconstruction (Steyaert & Knox, 2008) with updated observations and modeled potential vegetation. The eight‐member ensembles for each epoch were driven with randomly perturbed 1990–2002 atmospheric boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction global reanalysis. LUC induces statistically significant climate responses across all epochs; the largest changes occur between 1850 and 1920 with the widespread conversion of forests in the United States and forests, grassland, and woody wetlands in Cuba to agriculture. The atmospheric feedback from the aggregated grid‐cell responses attributed to physical and biophysical parameters in BATS1e alters the circulation in the lower atmosphere, thereby propagating the LUC regionally. Depending on the season and location, the altered circulation reinforces, attenuates, or has little effect on surface responses. Relative to pre‐settlement (1650), the 1992 LU produces colder mean annual air temperature (−0.09 ± 0.16 °C) and increased precipitation (0.08 ± 0.09 mm day −1 ) over the United States, warmer (0.08 °C) and wetter (0.03 mm day −1 ) conditions over Florida, and warming (0.32 °C) and drying (−0.03 mm day −1 ) over Cuba, indicating that LUC has played a varying role in climate change over the region.

Florida↗

Process-guided deep learning predictions of lake water temperature

The rapid growth of data in water resources has created new opportunities to accelerate knowledge discovery with the use of advanced deep learning tools. Hybrid models that integrate theory with state‐of‐the art empirical techniques have the potential to improve predictions while remaining true to physical laws. This paper evaluates the Process‐Guided Deep Learning (PGDL) hybrid modeling framework with a use‐case of predicting depth‐specific lake water temperatures. The PGDL model has three primary components: a deep learning model with temporal awareness (long short‐term memory recurrence), theory‐based feedback (model penalties for violating conversation of energy), and model pretraining to initialize the network with synthetic data (water temperature predictions from a process‐based model). In situ water temperatures were used to train the PGDL model, a deep learning (DL) model, and a process‐based (PB) model. Model performance was evaluated in various conditions, including when training data were sparse and when predictions were made outside of the range in the training data set. The PGDL model performance (as measured by root‐mean‐square error (RMSE)) was superior to DL and PB for two detailed study lakes, but only when pretraining data included greater variability than the training period. The PGDL model also performed well when extended to 68 lakes, with a median RMSE of 1.65 °C during the test period (DL: 1.78 °C, PB: 2.03 °C; in a small number of lakes PB or DL models were more accurate). This case‐study demonstrates that integrating scientific knowledge into deep learning tools shows promise for improving predictions of many important environmental variables.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Integrated hydrology and operations modeling to evaluate climate change impacts in an agricultural valley irrigated with snowmelt runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of the hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations to water distribution and consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface water and hydrologic river operations model to an irrigated river valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States to evaluate the impacts of climate change on snow-fed agricultural systems that use surface water and groundwater conjunctively. We explicitly represent individual surface water rights within the hydrologic model and allow the integrated code to change river diversions in response to earlier snowmelt runoff and water availability. Historically under-used supplemental groundwater rights are dynamically activated within the model to offset diminished surface water deliveries. The model accounts for feedbacks between the natural hydrology and anthropogenic stresses, which is a first-of-its-kind assessment of the impacts of climate change on individual water rights, and more broadly on river basin operations. Earlier snowmelt decreases annual surface water deliveries to all water rights, not just the junior water rights, owing to a lack of surface water storage in the upper river basin capable of capturing earlier runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access to reservoir storage benefit from earlier runoff flowing past upstream points of diversion prior to the start of the irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate for crop yield) decreases due to spatiotemporal changes in water supply that preferentially impact a subset of growers in the region.

California↗

Atmospheric river storm flooding influences tidal marsh elevation building processes

Disturbances are a key component of ecological processes in coastal ecosystems. Investigating factors that affect tidal marsh accretion and elevation change is important, largely due to accelerating sea-level rise and the ecological and economic value of wetlands. Sediment accumulation rates, elevation change, and flooding were examined at five marshes along a riverine-tidal gradient in the northern San Francisco Bay-Delta, California, USA during an Atmospheric River storm event in 2017 using Surface Elevation Tables (SETs), feldspar marker horizons (MH), and continuous water-level sensors. Our results showed that localized marsh flooding increased during the storm event, but not evenly across sites. Marsh surface elevation increased the most at the tidal freshwater marsh site in response to the storms, with an average surface elevation gain of 45.6 ± 13.1 mm, and the least at a tidal saline marsh with an average surface elevation gain of 4.0 ± 1.2 mm. A marsh located on the large embayment did not exhibit an immediate response to the storm but had a surface elevation gain of 21.5 ± 13.7 mm 6 months after the storm. During the storm period, marsh distance to the bay was the strongest predictor of elevation change, followed by SET-MH elevations. Conversely, during non-storm periods, SET-MH elevation was a relatively strong predictor of elevation change. Atmospheric Rivers appear to be a major factor affecting short-term spatial and temporal variability in flooding and sedimentation rates in tidal marsh systems. Incorporating information about storms into monitoring could increase our understanding of how episodic storms can impact marshes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

Off-fault deformation in regions of complex fault geometries: the 2013, Mw7.7, Baluchistan rupture (Pakistan)

Observations of recent earthquake surface ruptures show that ground deformations include a localized component occurring on faults, and an off-fault component affecting the surrounding medium. This second component is also referred to as off-fault deformation (OFD). The localized component generally occurs on complex networks of faults that connect at depth onto a unique fault plane, whereas OFD consists of distributed fracturing and diffuse deformation of the bulk volume, and occurs over scales of hundreds of meters to kilometers around the faults. High-resolution optical image correlation presents a unique potential to characterize the complexity of the surface displacements, including on-fault displacements and OFDs. In this study, we used sub-pixel correlation of 0.5-m resolution optical images to measure the surface displacement field with a <20 cm accuracy for a 30-km long section of the 2013 M w 7.7 Baluchistan, Pakistan, rupture. Our results document significant variability in the fault displacements, associated with large proportions of OFD in regions of fault geometrical complexity. Conversely, in regions where the fault geometry is simple, surface deformation is entirely accommodated by the primary faults with 0% OFD. When combining the localized deformation on faults with the OFD, we show that the total surface displacement budget is constant along the strike of the rupture, despite strong variations observed in the rupture geometry. Based on this analysis, we propose an idealized scenario of earthquake surface deformation as a function of the rupture geometrical variations.

Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth↗

A model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil carbon following coastal wetland loss applied to a Louisiana salt marsh in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain

The potential for carbon sequestration in coastal wetlands is high due to protection of carbon (C) in flooded soils. However, excessive flooding can result in the conversion of the vegetated wetland to open water. This transition results in the loss of wetland habitat in addition to the potential loss of soil carbon. Thus, in areas experiencing rapid wetland submergence, such as the Mississippi River Delta, coastal wetlands could become a significant source of carbon emissions if land loss is not mitigated. To accurately assess the capacity of wetlands to store (or emit) carbon in dynamic environments, it is critical to understand the fate of soil carbon following the transition from vegetated wetland to open water. We developed a simple soil carbon model representing soil depths to 1 m using the data collected from a Louisiana coastal salt marsh in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain to predict soil carbon density and stock following the transition from a vegetated salt marsh to an open water pond. While immediate effects of ponding on the distribution of carbon within the 1-m soil profile were apparent, there were no effects of ponding on the overall, integrated, carbon stocks 14 years, following wetland submergence. Rather, the model predicts that soil carbon losses in the first meter will be realized over long periods of time (∼200 years) due to changes in the source of carbon (biomass vs. mineral sediment) with minimal losses through mineralization.

Louisiana↗

Future marsh evolution due to tidal changes induced by human adaptation to sea level rise

With sea level rise threatening coastal development, decision-makers are beginning to act by modifying shorelines. Previous research has shown that hardening or softening shorelines may change the tidal range under future sea level rise. Tidal range can also be changed by natural factors. Coastal marshes, which humans increasingly depend on for shoreline protection, are ecologically sensitive to tidal range. Therefore, it is critical to examine how changes in tidal range could influence marsh processes. A marsh accretion model was used to investigate the ecological response of a San Francisco Bay, California, USA marsh to multiple tidal range scenarios and sea level rise from 2010 to 2100. The scenarios include a baseline scenario with no shoreline modifications in the estuary, a shoreline hardening scenario that amplifies the tidal range, and 14 tidal range scenarios as a sensitivity analysis that span tidal amplification and reduction of the baseline scenario. The modeling results expose key tradeoffs to consider when planning for sea level rise. Compared to the baseline, the hardening scenario shows minor differences. However, further tidal amplification prolongs marsh survival but decreases Sarcocornia pacifica cover, an important species for certain threatened wildlife and an effective attenuator of wave energy. Conversely, tidal reduction precipitates marsh drowning but shows gains in Sarcocornia pacifica cover. These mixed impacts of tidal amplification and reduction shown by the model indicate potential tradeoffs in relation to marsh survival, habitat characteristics, and shoreline protection. This study suggests the need for a cross-sectoral, regional approach to sea level rise adaptation.

California↗

Uranium redox and deposition transitions embedded in deep-time geochemical models and mineral chemistry networks

Uranium (U) is an important global energy resource and a redox sensitive trace element that reflects changing environmental conditions and geochemical cycling. The redox evolution of U mineral chemistry can be interrogated to understand the formation and distribution of U deposits and the redox processes involved in U geochemistry throughout Earth history. In this study, geochemical modeling using thermodynamic data, and mineral chemistry network analysis are used to investigate U geochemistry and deposition through time. The number of U 6+ mineral localities surpasses the number of U 4+ mineral localities in the Paleoproterozoic. Moreover, the number of sedimentary U 6+ mineral localities increases earlier in the Phanerozoic than the number of U 4+ sedimentary mineral localities, likely due to the necessity of sufficient sedimentary organic matter to reduce U 6+ –U 4+ . Indeed, modeling calculations indicate that increased oxidative weathering due to surface oxygenation limited U 4+ uraninite (UO 2 ) formation from weathered granite and basalt. Louvain network community detection shows that U 6+ forms minerals with many more shared elements and redox states than U 4+ . The range of weighted Mineral Element Electronegativity Coefficient of Variation (wMEE CV ) values of U 6+ minerals increases through time, particularly during the Phanerozoic. Conversely, the range of wMEE CV values of U 4+ minerals is consistent through time due to the relative abundance of uraninite, coffinite, and brannerite. The late oxidation and formation of U 6+ minerals compared to S 6+ minerals illustrates the importance of the development of land plants, organic matter deposition, and redox-controlled U deposition from ground water in continental sediments during this time-period.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

Reply to comment on "Five decades of observed daily precipitation reveal longer and more variable drought events across much of the western United States"

Paciorek and Wehner raise important questions around our use of the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test on smoothed data for analyzing long-term hydrometeorological trends in Zhang et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl092293 ). We thank them for initiating this important conversation and their gracious cooperation in exploring the issues addressed in their comment. In this reply we confirm the inflation of significant p -values by our choice to smooth, illustrate the relatively minor impacts on the main conclusions of our paper, and add our voices to those of Paciorek and Wehner in highlighting the lack of methodology for hypothesis testing across multiple stations that have spatial structure (i.e., testing for regionally consistent trends).

western United States↗