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At least 865 records · Page 48Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Resource Assessment Economic Filter (RAEF)—A graphical user interface supporting implementation of simple engineering mine cost analyses of quantitative mineral resource assessment simulations

Economic evaluations of undiscovered mineral resources provide important context in which to consider the results of quantitative mineral resource assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey economic analysis method uses a simple engineering cost model approach developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines that applies mine and mill engineering cost equations to simulated undiscovered deposits. The important characteristics of these deposits are derived from Monte Carlo simulations that combine probabilistic estimates of undiscovered deposits that might occur in a study area and a grade-tonnage model defined for a specific deposit type. This report describes the Resource Assessment Economic Filter (RAEF), a graphical user interface (GUI) tool that applies a set of mine cost equations to the deposits under consideration. RAEF, which is written in the open-source statistical programming language R, is an easy-to-use tool to apply user-defined mine, mill, and study area parameters to simulated deposits. For a given deposit type, it estimates the undiscovered resources that might be economic to extract. In addition, RAEF provides a series of graphical, tabular, and statistical summaries that document the results of the economic filter analysis.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS1994

Evaluation of ground-water flow by particle tracking, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB) began a Basewide Monitoring Program (BMP) in 1992. The purpose of the BMP was to establish a long-term ground-water and surface- water sampling network in order to (1) characterize current ground-water and surface-water quality; (2) describe water-quality changes as water enters, flows across, and exits Base boundaries; (3) conduct statistical analyses of water quality; and (4) estimate the effect of WPAFB on regional water quality. As part of the BMP, the USGS conducted ground-water particle-tracking analyses based on a ground-water-flow model produced during a previous USGS study. This report briefly describes the previous USGS study, the inherent assumptions of particle-tracking analyses, and information on the regional ground-water-flow field as inferred from particle pathlines. Pathlines for particles placed at the Base boundary and particles placed within identified Installation Restoration Program sites are described.

Ohio↗
USGS1986

Local Magnetic Fields, Uplift, Gravity, and Dilational Strain Changes in Southern California

Measurements of regional magnetic field during gravity, strain and leveling surveys near the San Andreas fault at Cajon, Palmdale and Tejon are strongly correlated with changes in gravity, areal strain, and uplift in these regions during the period 1977-1984. This correlation principally depends on data taken during 1978-79 and 1981-82 when episodes of the ‘Palmdale Uplift’ occurred in this general region. Because the inferred relationships between these parameters are in approximate agreement with those obtained from simple deformation models, the preferred explanation appeals to short-term strain episodes independently detected in each data set. Transfer functions from magnetic to strain, gravity, and uplift perturbations, obtained by least-square linear fits to the data, are -0.98nT/ppm, -0.03nT/μGal, and 9.1nT/m respectively. Tectonomagnetic model calculations underestimate the observed changes and those reported previously for dam loading and volcano-magnetic observations. A less likely alternative explanation of the observed data appeals to a common source of meteorologically generated crustal or instrumental noise in the strain, gravity, magnetic, and uplift data.

Journal of Geomagnetism & Geoelectricity↗
USGS2011

Methane hydrates and the future of natural gas

For decades, gas hydrates have been discussed as a potential resource, particularly for countries with limited access to conventional hydrocarbons or a strategic interest in establishing alternative, unconventional gas reserves. Methane has never been produced from gas hydrates at a commercial scale and, barring major changes in the economics of natural gas supply and demand, commercial production at a large scale is considered unlikely to commence within the next 15 years. Given the overall uncertainty still associated with gas hydrates as a potential resource, they have not been included in the EPPA model in MITEI’s Future of Natural Gas report. Still, gas hydrates remain a potentially large methane resource and must necessarily be included in any consideration of the natural gas supply beyond two decades from now.

Report↗
USGS1997

Two-dimensional habitat modeling in the Yellowstone/Upper Missouri River system

This study is being conducted to provide the aquatic biology component of a decision support system being developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. In an attempt to capture the habitat needs of Great Plains fish communities we are looking beyond previous habitat modeling methods. Traditional habitat modeling approaches have relied on one-dimensional hydraulic models and lumped compositional habitat metrics to describe aquatic habitat. A broader range of habitat descriptors is available when both composition and configuration of habitats is considered. Habitat metrics that consider both composition and configuration can be adapted from terrestrial biology. These metrics are most conveniently accessed with spatially explicit descriptors of the physical variables driving habitat composition. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models have advanced to the point that they may provide the spatially explicit description of physical parameters needed to address this problem. This paper reports progress to date on applying two-dimensional hydraulic and habitat models on the Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers and uses examples from the Yellowstone River to illustrate the configurational metrics as a new tool for assessing riverine habitats.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2019

Groundwater flow model for Western Chippewa County–Including analysis of water resources related to industrial sand mining and irrigated agriculture

A groundwater flow model for western Chippewa County, Wisconsin, was developed by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) using the computer program MODFLOW. The model is the result of a five-year groundwater study commissioned by Chippewa County in 2012 to evaluate the effects of industrial sand mining and irrigated agriculture on the county’s water resources. The study incorporates existing data and newly acquired data from fieldwork conducted within the study area. The groundwater model may be useful for future investigations, such as evaluation of proposed high-capacity well sites, development of municipal wellhead protection plans, and studies that seek to further quantify surface water-groundwater relationships. The model conceptualizes the hydrostratigraphy of western Chippewa County as six stacked layers. Each layer is distinct, beginning with unlithified glacial material at the surface, and alternating between sandstones (that act as aquifers) and shale units (that serve as aquitards). The model is bounded below by Precambrian crystalline bedrock and its perimeter was derived from a regional-scale groundwater flow model. The MODFLOW model represented average conditions during 2011–2013 with “steady-state” assumptions, meaning that simulated water levels do not fluctuate seasonally or from year to year. Steady-state models simplify natural variability, making results of scenario simulations easier to interpret and compare while also maximizing effects of stressors because the simulated stress is always applied (not halted after a few months or years). Model calibration used the parameter estimation code (PEST), and calibration targets included heads (groundwater levels) and streamflows. Calibration focused on 2011–2013 because a large amount of head and streamflow data were available for that period. The MODFLOW model explicitly simulates all sources and sinks of water, including groundwater/surface-water interaction with streamflow routing. Model input included estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity and a spatial groundwater recharge distribution developed using a GIS-based soil-water-balance (SWB) model applied to the model area. Groundwater withdrawals were simulated for 269 high-capacity wells across the entire model domain, which includes western Chippewa County and adjacent portions of Dunn, Barron, and Rusk Counties. Collectively, these wells withdrew about 1.14 million gallons per year between 2011 and 2013. Once the model was calibrated, it was applied to two distinct scenarios of increased groundwater withdrawals: one evaluating hydrologic effects of more intensive industrial sand mining and the second evaluating the hydrologic effects of more intensive agricultural irrigation practices. Each scenario was developed with input from Chippewa County and a stakeholder group established expressly for this study. The scenarios were designed to represent reasonable future buildout conditions for both mining and irrigated agriculture. The mining scenario underscores the potential hydrologic effects related to changing land-use practices (i.e., hilltops and farmland becoming sand mines), while the irrigated agriculture scenario illustrates the potential hydrologic effects of intensifying existing land-use practices (i.e., installing new wells to irrigate farm fields). While each scenario evaluated distinctly different conditions, modeling results demonstrated the potential of both scenarios to lower the water table and reduce baseflows in headwater streams within the modeled area. In the case of irrigated agriculture, hydrologic effects were associated directly with groundwater withdrawals. By assuming that irrigation did not decrease, this steady-state simulation represented a sustained future effect. By contrast, hydrologic effects of industrial sand mining were the result of both groundwater withdrawals at mines and land-use changes that effectively reduced recharge to groundwater over distinct phases of active mining. This scenario included a post-mining phase, during which groundwater withdrawals stopped and mined areas were reclaimed to undeveloped prairie grass cover. If reclamation to undeveloped prairie indeed occurs as simulated, long-term increases in the water table and stream baseflows are possible. In this sense, the scenario representing build out of irrigated agriculture led to long-term baseflow declines while the future buildout of industrial sand mining led to declines that dissipated following mine reclamation to undisturbed prairie. Future investigations in similar hydrogeologic settings may find the following insights gleaned from this study useful: ❚❚ The characterization of hydrogeologic properties, delineation of hydrogeologic units, and calibration of groundwater flow models benefited from incorporation of accurate well construction reports, high-quality borehole geophysical logs, and streamflow gaging data. ❚❚ Infiltration testing performed in active mining areas provided evidence that reducing the degree and extent of compaction and enhancing areas designed to retain and infiltrate stormwater runoff could potentially reduce runoff and increase groundwater recharge. ❚❚ Similarly, reclaiming mined areas to prairie grasses would be expected to reduce runoff and increase groundwater recharge by reducing compaction and improving soil structure and vegetation that can slow runoff and enhance infiltration.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Groundwater model of the Harney Basin, southeastern Oregon

Groundwater development, mainly for large-scale irrigation, has increased substantially in the Harney Basin of southeastern Oregon since 2010. Concurrently, some areas of the basin experienced groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet, and some shallow wells have gone dry. The Oregon Water Resources Department has limited new groundwater development in the basin until an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system is available. The groundwater resources report by Gingerich and others (2022, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2021–5103, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215103 ) provides that understanding. This report describes the development of a numerical groundwater-flow model that can be used as a tool to help improve that understanding. The Harney Basin Groundwater Model was developed using the finite-difference groundwater-modeling software U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW 6) and associated Python pre- and post-processing routines. The groundwater model encompasses the entire 5,240-square-mile Harney Basin and adjacent areas and is calibrated to the hydrologic conditions from 1930 to 2018. The model has a uniform grid consisting of 78,064 nearly square cells, each covering 2,005 by 2,007 feet (about 92 acres) and has 10 layers (780,640 total cells) representing the vertical distribution of hydrogeologic units. The results from the calibrated model simulations indicate that groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge since about the mid-1980s, resulting in an estimated net cumulative depletion of groundwater storage (discharge minus recharge) of about 840,000 acre-feet and also indicated declines in groundwater evapotranspiration and spring and stream discharge. Model simulations show as much as 100 feet of groundwater-level decline in some areas and more than 40 feet of decline in widespread areas in recent decades. Model simulations are consistent with field observations of groundwater levels through time.

Oregon↗
USGS2018

Overview and progress of the pallid sturgeon assessment framework redesign process

The Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP) was initiated in 2003, and full implementation began in 2006, to monitor the trend of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) and native fish communities in the Upper and Lower Missouri River Basins. The original PSPAP (v. 1.0) was a catch-effort based monitoring program where population abundance and trend were monitored using a relative index, catch per unit effort. In 2013, the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP), led by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), began a reassessment of science and monitoring approaches to support a new river management plan. The need to redesign the PSPAP was triggered by the recognition that the PSPAP v. 1.0 would not be optimally effective in contributing information needed to make decisions about the pallid sturgeon fundamental management objective—to avoid jeopardizing the continued existence of the pallid sturgeon from USACE actions in the Missouri River—identified in the Missouri River Science and Adaptive Management Plan. The fundamental management objective includes two management subobjectives: (1) increase pallid sturgeon recruitment to age 1 and (2) maintain or increase numbers of pallid sturgeon as an interim measure until sufficient and sustained natural recruitment occurs. These two management subobjectives motivated the development of two fundamental information objectives for PSPAP v. 2.0: (1) to provide information needed to quantify recruitment to age 1 and (2) to quantify pallid sturgeon population abundance and trend. The charge to the authors of this report was to develop an approach to monitoring the pallid sturgeon population in the Missouri River that would contribute information toward gauging overall performance of management actions to achieve the fundamental objectives of the MRRP and to potentially improve understanding of linkages from the management activities to population responses. We used transparent and robust processes to identify alternative monitoring designs that meet the fundamental objectives for managing pallid sturgeon in the MRRP, with a focus on simulation models to evaluate the performance of varying monitoring. This report documents the process of comparing potential alternative monitoring design abilities to provide decision-relevant information for management of the species. The process includes evaluation of information content and attendant uncertainties and considers tradeoffs in types of information valued by stakeholders. The anticipated end product of this process will be synthesized in a decision-support tool that can be used to facilitate learning and iterative revisions of the monitoring roadmap.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

Tomographic Rayleigh-wave group velocities in the Central Valley, California centered on the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta

If shaking from a local or regional earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region were to rupture levees in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta then brackish water from San Francisco Bay would contaminate the water in the Delta: the source of fresh water for about half of California. As a prelude to a full shear-wave velocity model that can be used in computer simulations and further seismic hazard analysis, we report on the use of ambient noise tomography to build a fundamental-mode, Rayleigh-wave group velocity model for the region around the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta in the western Central Valley, California. Recordings from the vertical component of about 31 stations were processed to compute the spatial distribution of Rayleigh wave group velocities. Complex coherency between pairs of stations were stacked over 8 months to more than a year. Dispersion curves were determined from 4 to about 18 seconds. We calculated average group velocities for each period and inverted for deviations from the average for a matrix of cells that covered the study area. Smoothing using the first difference is applied. Cells of the model were about 5.6 km in either dimension. Checkerboard tests of resolution, which is dependent on station density, suggest that the resolving ability of the array is reasonably good within the middle of the array with resolution between 0.2 and 0.4 degrees. Overall, low velocities in the middle of each image reflect the deeper sedimentary syncline in the Central Valley. In detail, the model shows several centers of low velocity that may be associated with gross geologic features such as faulting along the western margin of the Central Valley, oil and gas reservoirs, and large cross cutting features like the Stockton arch. At shorter periods around 5.5s, the model’s western boundary between low and high velocities closely follows regional fault geometry and the edge of a residual isostatic gravity low. In the eastern part of the valley, the boundaries of the low velocity zone and gravity anomaly are better aligned at longer periods (around 10.5s) suggesting that the eastern edge of the gravity low is associated with deeper structure. There is a strong correspondence between a low in gravity near the Kirby Hills fault and low velocities from the ambient noise tomography. At longer periods, higher velocities creep in from the east and narrow the overall dimension defined by the lower velocities. Overall, there is a strong correspondence between the shape and location of low velocities in the Rayleigh wave velocity images, and geological and geophysical features.

California↗
USGS1996

Documentation of model input and output values for the simulation of the ground-water flow system in the Cretaceous-age Coastal Plain aquifers of South Carolina

This report and the attached 3 1/2-inch diskette contain, in compressed format, the data sets for the model of ground-water flow in the Cretaceous-age Coastal Plain aquifers of South Carolina. The data sets can be uncompressed using a program provided with this report. The uncompressed files require approximately 3.7 megabytes of disk space on an IBM-compatible microcomputer1 using the MS-DOS operating system. All files are in American Standard Code for Information Interchange format.

South Carolina↗
USGS2003

Precipitation-Runoff Simulations of Current and Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Methow River Basin, Washington

Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. This report describes the construction and calibration of an enhanced precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and evaluates the model as a predictive tool for assessing the current and natural streamflow conditions. This study builds upon a previous precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and validates the current model using a new, more extensive streamflow data network. The major enhancement was the simulation of current flow conditions with the addition of irrigation diversions, returns, and application. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin and the Modular Modeling System, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, simulated the hydrologic flow. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-2001 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. A sensitivity analysis was completed using nonlinear regression to determine hydrologic parameters pertinent to the modeling results. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow or baseflow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation, were simulated reasonably well yet possessed the most uncertainty. Simulations of annual mean streamflow as a percentage of measured annual mean streamflow for the 10-year calibration period at six of the seven streamflow-gaging stations ranged from -35.2 to +26.2 percent, with 65 percent of the simulated values within 15 percent. One station was intentionally calibrated to over-simulate discharge (simulated discharge greater than measured discharge) in order to compensate for observed channel losses not simulated by the model. Simulation of water years 1960-2001 demonstrated great variability in monthly streamflow statistics. The simulated mean monthly flows for 11 streamflow-gaging stations were an average of 2.5 percent higher for water years 1992-2001 than for the entire simulation period. If water year 2001, an extreme drought year, is omitted, simulated mean monthly flows for the 11 streamflow-gaging stations were an average of 9.0 percent higher than for the entire simulation period. The calibrated model also examined the effects of irrigation-canal seepage on streamflow. Irrigation-canal seepage contributed to streamflow throughout the year, with the greatest effect during the irrigation season. Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. This report describes the construction and calibration of an enhanced precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and evaluates the model as a predictive tool for assessing the current and natural streamflow conditions. This study builds upon a previous precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and validates the current model using a new, more extensive streamflow data network. The major enhancement was the simulation of current flow conditions with the addition of irrigation diversions, returns, and application. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin and the Modular Modeling System, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, simulated the hydrologic flow. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-2001 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. A sensitivity analysis was completed using nonlinear regression to determine hydrologic parameters pertinent to the modeling results. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow or baseflow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Using avian radar to examine relationships among avian activity, bird strikes, and meteorological factors

Radar systems designed to detect avian activity at airfields are useful in understanding factors that influence the risk of bird and aircraft collisions (bird strikes). We used an avian radar system to measure avian activity at Beale Air Force Base, California, USA, during 2008 and 2009. We conducted a 2-part analysis to examine relationships among avian activity, bird strikes, and meteorological and time-dependent factors. We found that avian activity around the airfield was greater at times when bird strikes occurred than on average using a permutation resampling technique. Second, we developed generalized linear mixed models of an avian activity index (AAI). Variation in AAI was first explained by seasons that were based on average migration dates of birds at the study area. We then modeled AAI by those seasons to further explain variation by meteorological factors and daily light levels within a 24- hour period. In general, avian activity increased with decreased temperature, wind, visibility, precipitation, and increased humidity and cloud cover. These effects differed by season. For example, during the spring bird migration period, most avian activity occurred before sunrise at twilight hours on clear days with low winds, whereas during fall migration, substantial activity occurred after sunrise, and birds generally were more active at lower temperatures. We report parameter estimates (i.e., constants and coefficients) averaged across models and a relatively simple calculation for safety officers and wildlife managers to predict AAI and the relative risk of bird strike based on time, date, and meteorological values. We validated model predictability and assessed model fi t. These analyses will be useful for general inference of avian activity and risk assessment efforts. Further investigation and ongoing data collection will refine these inference models and improve our understanding of factors that influence avian activity, which is necessary to inform management decisions aimed at reducing risk of bird strikes.

California↗
USGS2021

Piloting urban ecosystem accounting for the United States

In this study, we develop urban ecosystem accounts in the U.S., using the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EEA) framework. Most ecosystem accounts focus on regional and national scales, which are appropriate for many ecosystem services. However, ecosystems provide substantial services in cities, improving quality of life and contributing to resiliency for substantial parts of the population. Our models estimate energy savings for indoor cooling resulting from heat mitigated by trees and rainfall intercepted by trees. Both models cover major cities in the contiguous U.S. and report the results through physical supply and use tables for multiple accounting periods (2011 and 2016). Using conservative assumptions, urban trees provide substantial heat mitigation (4,098 and 4,229 GWh, valued at $523 and $539 million in 2011 and 2016, respectively) and rainfall interception (2,422 and 2,627 million m 3 , valued at $434 and $425 million for 2011 and 2016, respectively). Interannual differences largely reflect variations in weather patterns. Our work shows how Earth observation data can support urban ecosystem accounting. We provide model code within a public repository to facilitate model runs elsewhere, enabling the SEEA EEA and Earth observation user communities to reuse our models and provide feedback for improvement.

Ecosystem Services↗
USGS2006

Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

South Carolina↗
USGS2017

Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

The 25 April 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake produced strong ground motions across an approximately 250 km by 100 km swath in central Nepal. To assist disaster response activities, we modified an existing earthquake-triggered landslide model based on a Newmark sliding block analysis to estimate the extent and intensity of landsliding and landslide dam hazard. Landslide hazard maps were produced using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital topography, peak ground acceleration (PGA) information from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap program, and assumptions about the regional rock strength based on end-member values from previous studies. The instrumental record of seismicity in Nepal is poor, so PGA estimates were based on empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) constrained by teleseismic data and felt reports. We demonstrate a non-linear dependence of modeled landsliding on aggregate rock strength, where the number of landslides decreases exponentially with increasing rock strength. Model estimates are less sensitive to PGA at steep slopes (> 60°) compared to moderate slopes (30–60°). We compare forward model results to an inventory of landslides triggered by the Gorkha earthquake. We show that moderate rock strength inputs over estimate landsliding in regions beyond the main slip patch, which may in part be related to poorly constrained PGA estimates for this event at far distances from the source area. Directly above the main slip patch, however, the moderate strength model accurately estimates the total number of landslides within the resolution of the model (landslides ≥ 0.0162 km 2 ; observed n = 2214, modeled n = 2987), but the pattern of landsliding differs from observations. This discrepancy is likely due to the unaccounted for effects of variable material strength and local topographic amplification of strong ground motion, as well as other simplifying assumptions about source characteristics and their relationship to landsliding.

Tectonophysics↗
USGS2022

On the use of high-resolution and deep-learning seismic catalogs for short-term earthquake forecasts: Potential benefits and current limitations

Enhanced earthquake catalogs provide detailed images of evolving seismic sequences. Currently, these data sets take some time to be released but will soon become available in real time. Here, we explore whether and how enhanced seismic catalogs feeding into established short-term earthquake forecasting protocols may result in higher predictive skill. We consider three enhanced catalogs for the 2016–2017 Central Italy sequence, featuring a bulk completeness lower by at least two magnitude units compared to the real-time catalog and an improved hypocentral resolution. We use them to inform a set of physical Coulomb Rate-and-State (CRS) and statistical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to forecast the space-time occurrence of M3+ events during the first 6 months of the sequence. We track model performance using standard likelihood-based metrics and compare their skill against the best-performing CRS and ETAS models among those developed with the real-time catalog. We find that while the incorporation of the triggering contributions from new small magnitude detections of the enhanced catalogs is beneficial for both types of forecasts, these models do not significantly outperform their respective near real-time benchmarks. To explore the reasons behind this result, we perform targeted sensitivity tests that show how (a) the typical spatial discretizations of forecast experiments ( 2 km) hamper the ability of models to capture highly localized secondary triggering patterns and (b) differences in earthquake parameters (i.e., magnitude and hypocenters) reported in different catalogs can affect forecast evaluation. These findings will contribute toward improving forecast model design and evaluation strategies for next-generation seismic catalogs.

Journal of Geophysical Research--Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Development of a hydrogeologic visualization model for western Sarpy County, Nebraska

Population in western Sarpy County, Nebraska, has steadily increased over the last several decades and has led to increased groundwater use for domestic purposes. To meet the increase in demand, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District is seeking to use all available sources of groundwater in western Sarpy County. Additionally, elevated groundwater nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen concentrations were detected, indicating the need to better understand the groundwater quality of the area. Although the general geology of the area is understood, the area does not have detailed information on the extent of the various aquifers, particularly the Dakota aquifer. To characterize these aquifers, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District invested in airborne electromagnetic surveys of the area to better understand the subsurface geology. Although these surveys improved understanding of the groundwater systems in the area, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District wanted to integrate the subsurface information with available water-quality and groundwater-level data. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, the Nebraska Natural Resources Commission, and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, assembled geologic, hydrogeologic and nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen information for the selected area into a three-dimensional visualization computer software package called GeoScene3D. The completed GeoScene3D project was assembled to provide a visualization of the groundwater systems and associated water-quality results in Sarpy County and to provide the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District managers with information that can be used to make more informed groundwater resource-planning decisions in the future. This report details the development of a three-dimensional model created within GeoScene3D to visualize the subsurface, particularly the Dakota Sandstone in western Sarpy County.

Nebraska↗
USGS2012

Simulation of an urban ground-water-flow system in the Menomonee Valley, Milwaukee, Wisconsin using analytic element modeling

A single-layer, steady-state analytic element model was constructed to simulate shallow ground-water flow in the Menomonee Valley, an old industrial center southwest of downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Project objectives were to develop an understanding of the shallow ground-water flow system and identify primary receptors of recharge to the valley. The analytic element model simulates flow in a 18.3 m (60 ft) thick layer of estuarine and alluvial sediments and man-made fill that comprises the shallow aquifer across the valley. The thin, laterally extensive nature of the shallow aquifer suggests horizontal-flow predominates, thus the system can appropriately be modeled with the Dupuit-Forchheimer approximation in an analytic element model. The model was calibrated to the measured baseflow increase between two USGS gages on the Menomonee River, 90 head measurements taken in and around the valley during December 1999, and vertical gradients measured at five locations under the river and estuary in the valley. Recent construction of the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewer District Inline Storage System (ISS) in the Silurian dolomite under the Menomonee Valley has locally lowered heads in the dolomite appreciably, below levels caused by historic pumping. The ISS is a regional hydraulic sink which removes water from the bedrock even during dry weather. The potential effect on flow directions in the shallow aquifer of dry-weather infiltration to the ISS was evaluated by adjusting the resistance of the line-sink strings representing the ISS in the model to allow infiltration from 0 to 100% of the reported 9,500 m 3 /d. The best fit to calibration targets was found between 60% (5,700 m 3 /d) and 80% (7,600 m 3 /d) of the reported dry-weather infiltration. At 60% infiltration, 65% of the recharge falling on the valley terminates at the ISS and 35% at the Menomonee River and estuary. At 80% infiltration, 73% of the recharge terminates at the ISS, and 27% at the river and estuary. Model simulations suggest that the ISS has an greater influence on the shallow ground-water flow in the eastern half of valley as compared to the western half. Preliminary three-dimensional simulations using the numerical MODFLOW code show good agreement with the single-layer simulation and supports its use in evaluating the shallow system. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Conference Paper↗