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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources

USGS2016

When winners become losers: Predicted nonlinear responses of arctic birds to increasing woody vegetation

Climate change is facilitating rapid changes in the composition and distribution of vegetation at northern latitudes, raising questions about the responses of wildlife that rely on arctic ecosystems. One widely observed change occurring in arctic tundra ecosystems is an increasing dominance of deciduous shrub vegetation. Our goals were to examine the tolerance of arctic-nesting bird species to existing gradients of vegetation along the boreal forest-tundra ecotone, to predict the abundance of species across different heights and densities of shrubs, and to identify species that will be most or least responsive to ongoing expansion of shrubs in tundra ecosystems. We conducted 1,208 point counts on 12 study blocks from 2012–2014 in northwestern Alaska, using repeated surveys to account for imperfect detection of birds. We considered the importance of shrub height, density of low and tall shrubs (i.e. shrubs >0.5 m tall), percent of ground cover attributed to shrubs (including dwarf shrubs <0.5 m tall), and percent of herbaceous plant cover in predicting bird abundance. Among 17 species considered, only gray-cheeked thrush ( Catharus minimus ) abundance was associated with the highest values of all shrub metrics in its top predictive model. All other species either declined in abundance in response to one or more shrub metrics or reached a threshold where further increases in shrubs did not contribute to greater abundance. In many instances the relationship between avian abundance and shrubs was nonlinear, with predicted abundance peaking at moderate values of the covariate, then declining at high values. In particular, a large number of species were responsive to increasing values of average shrub height with six species having highest abundance at near-zero values of shrub height and abundance of four other species decreasing once heights reached moderate values (≤ 33 cm). Our findings suggest that increases in shrub cover and density will negatively affect abundance of only a few bird species and may potentially be beneficial for many others. As shrub height increases further, however, a considerable number of tundra bird species will likely find habitat increasingly unsuitable.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Experimental warming across a tropical forest canopy height gradient reveals minimal photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation

Tropical forest canopies cycle vast amounts of carbon, yet we still have a limited understanding of how these critical ecosystems will respond to climate warming. We implemented in situ leaf-level + 3°C experimental warming from the understory to the upper canopy of two Puerto Rican tropical tree species, Guarea guidonia and Ocotea sintenisii . After approximately 1 month of continuous warming, we assessed adjustments in photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, stomatal conductance, leaf traits and foliar respiration. Warming did not alter net photosynthetic temperature response for either species; however, the optimum temperature of Ocotea understory leaf photosynthetic electron transport shifted upward. There was no Ocotea respiratory treatment effect, while Guarea respiratory temperature sensitivity ( Q 10 ) was down-regulated in heated leaves. The optimum temperatures for photosynthesis ( T opt ) decreased 3–5°C from understory to the highest canopy position, perhaps due to upper canopy stomatal conductance limitations. Guarea upper canopy T opt was similar to the mean daytime temperatures, while Ocotea canopy leaves often operated above T opt . With minimal acclimation to warmer temperatures in the upper canopy, further warming could put these forests at risk of reduced CO 2 uptake, which could weaken the overall carbon sink strength of this tropical forest.

Plant, Cell, and Environment↗

USGS2024

All tidal wetlands are blue carbon ecosystems

Managing coastal wetlands is one of the most promising activities to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases, and it also contributes to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. One of the options is through blue carbon projects, in which mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrass are managed to increase carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, other tidal wetlands align with the characteristics of blue carbon. These wetlands are called tidal freshwater wetlands in the United States, supratidal wetlands in Australia, transitional forests in Southeast Asia, and estuarine forests in South Africa. They have similar or larger potential for atmospheric carbon sequestration and emission reductions than the currently considered blue carbon ecosystems and have been highly exploited. In the present article, we suggest that all wetlands directly or indirectly influenced by tides should be considered blue carbon. Their protection and restoration through carbon offsets could reduce emissions while providing multiple cobenefits, including biodiversity.

BioScience↗

USGS2015

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2023

Using simulated GEDI waveforms to evaluate the effects of beam sensitivity and terrain slope on GEDI L2A relative height metrics over the Brazilian Amazon Forest

The vertical structure of forests provides important parameters for estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) and it can be measured by LiDAR sensors. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) full-waveform LiDAR sensor collects data systematically over the Earth’s surface from the International Space Station. Since GEDI became operational, it has collected billions of ~25 m diameter footprints. This massive dataset has been used to create higher level gridded and non-grided products. However, GEDI’s ~25 m footprints can be subject to errors associated with effects of geolocation, terrain slope, and beam sensitivity, among others, which are likely transferred to the downstream products. This study aims to (1) evaluate the effect of beam sensitivity and terrain slope on the accuracy of relative heights (RH) of GEDI product L2A version 2 through comparison with discrete-return airborne LiDAR data collected over transects in the Brazilian Amazon Forest biome, (2) assess GEDI’s geolocation uncertainty and investigate its combined effects with beam sensitivity and terrain slope, and (3) re-evaluate beam sensitivity and terrain slope effects on the GEDI L2A RHs using footprints that were geolocation-adjusted through a simple novel approach. The analysis separates GEDI footprints by acquisition time, i.e., daytime, nighttime, and combined (all-data). The discrete-return airborne LiDAR point clouds are used to derive terrain slope within the GEDI footprints, and to simulate GEDI waveforms and derive RHs comparable to the GEDI L2A product. Results indicate that terrain slope only causes significant effects on GEDI data collected during daytime because solar radiation affects waveform signal-to-noise ratio. Beam sensitivity causes significant effects on nighttime and all-data GEDI L2A RHs. If geolocation uncertainty is considered, the effects of beam sensitivity and terrain slope have just minor changes. Geolocation-adjusted data continue showing significant effects on nighttime and all-data RH differences caused by beam sensitivity but produce unbiased results. This study improves the understanding of how beam sensitivity, terrain slope and their combined effect with geolocation uncertainty may affect the GEDI L2A RH collected over the Brazilian Amazon forest during daytime and nighttime.

Brazilian Amazon Forest↗

USGS2017

Functional integrity of freshwater forested wetlands, hydrologic alteration, and climate change

Climate change will challenge managers to balance the freshwater needs of humans and wetlands. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that most regions of the world will be exposed to higher temperatures, CO 2 , and more erratic precipitation, with some regions likely to have alternating episodes of intense flooding and mega-drought. Coastal areas will be exposed to more frequent saltwater inundation as sea levels rise. Local land managers desperately need intra-regional climate information for site-specific planning, management, and restoration activities. Managers will be challenged to deliver freshwater to floodplains during climate change-induced drought, particularly within hydrologically altered and developed landscapes. Assessment of forest health, both by field and remote sensing techniques, will be essential to signal the need for hydrologic remediation. Studies of the utility of the release of freshwater to remediate stressed forested floodplains along the Murray and Mississippi Rivers suggest that brief episodes of freshwater remediation for trees can have positive health benefits for these forests. The challenges of climate change in forests of the developing world will be considered using the Tonle Sap of Cambodia as an example. With little ecological knowledge of the impacts, managing climate change will add to environmental problems already faced in the developing world with new river engineering projects. These emerging approaches to remediate stressed trees will be of utmost importance for managing worldwide floodplain forests with predicted climate changes.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗

USGS2011

The role of surface and subsurface processes in keeping pace with sea level rise in intertidal wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Increases in the elevation of the soil surfaces of mangroves and salt marshes are key to the maintenance of these habitats with accelerating sea level rise. Understanding the processes that give rise to increases in soil surface elevation provides science for management of landscapes for sustainable coastal wetlands. Here, we tested whether the soil surface elevation of mangroves and salt marshes in Moreton Bay is keeping up with local rates of sea level rise (2.358 mm y -1 ) and whether accretion on the soil surface was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise. We found variability in surface elevation gains, with sandy areas in the eastern bay having the highest surface elevation gains in both mangrove and salt marsh (5.9 and 1.9 mm y -1 ) whereas in the muddier western bay rates of surface elevation gain were lower (1.4 and -0.3 mm y -1 in mangrove and salt marsh, respectively). Both sides of the bay had similar rates of surface accretion (~7–9 mm y -1 in the mangrove and 1–3 mm y -1 in the salt marsh), but mangrove soils in the western bay were subsiding at a rate of approximately 8 mm y -1 , possibly due to compaction of organic sediments. Over the study surface elevation increments were sensitive to position in the intertidal zone (higher when lower in the intertidal) and also to variation in mean sea level (higher at high sea level). Although surface accretion was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise in the eastern bay, subsidence largely negated gains made through surface accretion in the western bay indicating a high vulnerability to sea level rise in these forests.

Queensland↗

USGS1999

Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for ( i ) warmer, ( ii ) warmer and 20% wetter, and ( iii ) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2011

Landscape controls on the timing of spring, autumn, and growing season length in mid-Atlantic forests

The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field-based and remote-sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium-resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate-related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf-area trajectories in mid-Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape-scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS1997

Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2007

Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget

We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere. We estimated that the current net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from Alaskan soils are ???3 Tg CH 4/yr. Wet tundra ecosystems are responsible for 75% of the region's net emissions, while dry tundra and upland boreal forests are responsible for 50% and 45% of total consumption over the region, respectively. In response to climate change over the 21st century, our simulations indicated that CH 4 emissions from wet soils would be enhanced more than consumption by dry soils of tundra and boreal forests. As a consequence, we projected that net CH4 emissions will almost double by the end of the century in response to high-latitude warming and associated climate changes. When we placed these CH4 emissions in the context of the projected carbon budget (carbon dioxide [CO2] and CH4) for Alaska at the end of the 21st century, we estimated that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere of 69 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr, that is, a balance between net methane emissions of 131 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr and carbon sequestration of 17 Tg C/yr (62 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr). ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2007

A stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests of the southern Rocky Mountains

Dendroecological techniques were applied to reconstruct stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Fourteen stand-replacing fires were dated to 8 unique fire years (1842–1901) using four lines of evidence at each of 12 sites within the upper Rio Grande Basin. The four lines of evidence were ( i ) quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) inner-ring dates, ( ii ) fire-killed conifer bark-ring dates, ( iii ) tree-ring width changes or other morphological indicators of injury, and ( iv ) fire scars. The annual precision of dating allowed the identification of synchronous stand-replacing fire years among the sites, and co-occurrence with regional surface fire events previously reconstructed from a network of fire scar collections in lower elevation pine forests across the southwestern United States. Nearly all of the synchronous stand-replacing and surface fire years coincided with severe droughts, because climate variability created regional conditions where stand-replacing fires and surface fires burned across ecosystems. Reconstructed stand-replacing fires that predate substantial Anglo-American settlement in this region provide direct evidence that stand-replacing fires were a feature of high-elevation forests before extensive and intensive land-use practices (e.g., logging, railroad, and mining) began in the late 19th century.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2007

Dissolved organic carbon in Alaskan boreal forest: Sources, chemical characteristics, and biodegradability

The fate of terrestrially-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is important to carbon (C) cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic environments, and recent evidence suggests that climate warming is influencing DOC dynamics in northern ecosystems. To understand what determines the fate of terrestrial DOC, it is essential to quantify the chemical nature and potential biodegradability of this DOC. We examined DOC chemical characteristics and biodegradability collected from soil pore waters and dominant vegetation species in four boreal black spruce forest sites in Alaska spanning a range of hydrologic regimes and permafrost extents (Well Drained, Moderately Well Drained, Poorly Drained, and Thermokarst Wetlands). DOC chemistry was characterized using fractionation, UV-Vis absorbance, and fluorescence measurements. Potential biodegradability was assessed by incubating the samples and measuring CO2 production over 1 month. Soil pore water DOC from all sites was dominated by hydrophobic acids and was highly aromatic, whereas the chemical composition of vegetation leachate DOC varied significantly with species. There was no seasonal variability in soil pore water DOC chemical characteristics or biodegradability; however, DOC collected from the Poorly Drained site was significantly less biodegradable than DOC from the other three sites (6% loss vs. 13-15% loss). The biodegradability of vegetation-derived DOC ranged from 10 to 90% loss, and was strongly correlated with hydrophilic DOC content. Vegetation such as Sphagnum moss and feathermosses yielded DOC that was quickly metabolized and respired. In contrast, the DOC leached from vegetation such as black spruce was moderately recalcitrant. Changes in DOC chemical characteristics that occurred during microbial metabolism of DOC were quantified using fractionation and fluorescence. The chemical characteristics and biodegradability of DOC in soil pore waters were most similar to the moderately recalcitrant vegetation leachates, and to the microbially altered DOC from all vegetation leachates.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Is the geographic range of mangrove forests in the conterminous United States really expanding?

Changes in the distribution and abundance of mangrove species within and outside of their historic geographic range can have profound consequences in the provision of ecosystem goods and services they provide. Mangroves in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are believed to be expanding poleward (north) due to decreases in the frequency and severity of extreme cold events, while sea level rise is a factor often implicated in the landward expansion of mangroves locally. We used ~35 years of satellite imagery and in situ observations for CONUS and report that: (i) poleward expansion of mangrove forest is inconclusive, and may have stalled for now, and (ii) landward expansion is actively occurring within the historical northernmost limit. We revealed that the northernmost latitudinal limit of mangrove forests along the east and west coasts of Florida, in addition to Louisiana and Texas has not systematically expanded toward the pole. Mangrove area, however, expanded by 4.3% from 1980 to 2015 within the historic northernmost boundary, with the highest percentage of change in Texas and southern Florida. Several confounding factors such as sea level rise, absence or presence of sub-freezing temperatures, land use change, impoundment/dredging, changing hydrology, fire, storm, sedimentation and erosion, and mangrove planting are responsible for the change. Besides, sea level rise, relatively milder winters and the absence of sub-freezing temperatures in recent decades may be enabling the expansion locally. The results highlight the complex set of forcings acting on the northerly extent of mangroves and emphasize the need for long-term monitoring as this system increases in importance as a means to adapt to rising oceans and mitigate the effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 .

Sensors↗

USGS2019

Landscape evolution of a fluvial sediment-rich Avicennia marina mangrove forest: Insights from seasonal and inter-annual surface-elevation dynamics

Mangrove forests are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise associated with climate warming because they occupy a relatively narrow zone on the mid-to-upper-intertidal flats. The fate of these ecosystems largely depends on their capacity to accrete sediment at a rate sufficient to maintain their elevation relative to sea level. We investigated the role of biophysical processes and feedbacks controlling surface-elevation dynamics in a fluvial sediment-rich Avicennia marina mangrove forest (New Zealand) at seasonal-to-inter-annual timescales (over 9 years) using the Rod Surface Elevation Table method. We found that sediment accretion in the forest was not measurably enhanced by episodic and short-lived storm discharges from rivers nor by elevated sea levels during storms. Critically, the coupling of frequent onshore winds and resulting resuspension of intertidal muds, with the fortnightly cycle of spring tide inundation, controlled sediment delivery and resulting accretion rates of 13 to 47 mm y −1 . In turn, net surface-elevation trends of 0 to 28 mm y −1 were dominated by the physical processes of sediment accretion and shallow subsidence due to seasonal desiccation and resulting compaction of the infrequently inundated forest platform (4 to 16 mm y −1 ). Our data suggest that monthly and seasonal variation in tidally controlled hydroperiod and sediment delivery rather than episodic storm events are important for the maintenance of mangrove elevation within the intertidal zone.

Firth of Thames↗

USGS2021

Understanding grass invasion, fire severity, and Acacia koa regeneration for forest restoration in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park

With invasive grasses increasing wildfire occurrence worldwide, a better understanding of the relationships between native plants, fire, and invasive grass is needed to help restoration plans facilitate ecosystem resilience. Invasive grasses are particularly problematic for altering fire regimes in the tropics, yet in Hawaiʻi, restoration sites are often planted with monocultures of the native tree Acacia koa, which can promote grass growth via nitrogen fixation. This, combined with the difficulty of estimating pre-fire grass cover under thick canopies, complicates attempts to restore Hawaiian ecosystems. We studied the 2018 Keauhou Ranch Fire in Hawaiʻi to investigate three questions: (1) at what level of precision can pre-fire grass cover be accurately estimated from oblique aerial photos? (2) how are post-fire A. koa regeneration densities affected by fire severity? and (3) how are post-fire A. koa regeneration densities affected by pre-fire grass cover and its interaction with fire severity? We collected burn severity and post-fire regeneration data from 30 transects stratified across mid-elevation woodland, montane woodland, and montane shrubland communities. We evaluated visual estimates of pre-fire grass cover from oblique aerial imagery with quantitative in situ data from 60 unburned transects of the same cover types. Pre-fire estimates of grass cover categories were 67% accurate in montane woodland ( n = 9) and 100% accurate in montane shrubland ( n = 11), but only 20% accurate in mid-elevation woodland ( n = 10). In montane woodlands with low pre-fire tree densities, A. koa regeneration densities were higher with increased fire severity, but this trend reversed when pre-fire tree densities were high. We detected no effect of pre-fire grass cover, nor its interaction with fire severity, on A. koa regeneration density. This indicates that restoration through the planting of A. koa may be successful in promoting fire-resilient A. koa forest, although there are potential issues to consider regarding the effects that A. koa ’s grass promotion may have on other species within the ecosystem.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem services. We conclude with an assessment of the role of fire management in an increasingly flammable Southwest.

Arizona;California;New Mexico;Nevada↗

USGS2018

Growth and survival relationships of 71 tree species with nitrogen and sulfur deposition across the conterminous U.S.

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) influences forest demographics and carbon (C) uptake through multiple mechanisms that vary among tree species. Prior studies have estimated the effects of atmospheric N deposition on temperate forests by leveraging forest inventory measurements across regional gradients in deposition. However, in the United States (U.S.), these previous studies were limited in the number of species and the spatial scale of analysis, and did not include sulfur (S) deposition as a potential covariate. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of how tree growth and survival for 71 species vary with N and S deposition across the conterminous U.S. Our analysis of 1,423,455 trees from forest plots inventoried between 2000 and 2016 reveals that the growth and/or survival of the vast majority of species in the analysis (n = 66, or 93%) were significantly affected by atmospheric deposition. Species co-occurred across the conterminous U.S. that had decreasing and increasing relationships between growth (or survival) and N deposition, with just over half of species responding negatively in either growth or survival to increased N deposition somewhere in their range (42 out of 71). Averaged across species and conterminous U.S., however, we found that an increase in deposition above current rates of N deposition would coincide with a small net increase in tree growth (1.7% per Δ kg N ha -1 yr -1 ), and a small net decrease in tree survival (-0.22% per Δ kg N ha -1 yr -1 ), with substantial regional and among-species variation. Adding S as a predictor improved the overall model performance for 70% of the species in the analysis. Our findings have potential to help inform ecosystem management and air pollution policy across the conterminous U.S., and suggest that N and S deposition have likely altered forest demographics in the U.S.

PLoS ONE↗