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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

Organic substances in produced and formation water from unconventional natural gas extraction in coal and shale

Organic substances in produced and formation water from coalbed methane (CBM) and gas shale plays from across the USA were examined in this study. Disposal of produced waters from gas extraction in coal and shale is an important environmental issue because of the large volumes of water involved and the variable quality of this water. Organic substances in produced water may be environmentally relevant as pollutants, but have been little studied. Results from five CBM plays and two gas shale plays (including the Marcellus Shale) show a myriad of organic chemicals present in the produced and formation water. Organic compound classes present in produced and formation water in CBM plays include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), heterocyclic compounds, alkyl phenols, aromatic amines, alkyl aromatics (alkyl benzenes, alkyl biphenyls), long-chain fatty acids, and aliphatic hydrocarbons. Concentrations of individual compounds range from < 1 to 100 μg/L, but total PAHs (the dominant compound class for most CBM samples) range from 50 to 100 μg/L. Total dissolved organic carbon (TOC) in CBM produced water is generally in the 1–4 mg/L range. Excursions from this general pattern in produced waters from individual wells arise from contaminants introduced by production activities (oils, grease, adhesives, etc.). Organic substances in produced and formation water from gas shale unimpacted by production chemicals have a similar range of compound classes as CBM produced water, and TOC levels of about 8 mg/L. However, produced water from the Marcellus Shale using hydraulic fracturing has TOC levels as high as 5500 mg/L and a range of added organic chemicals including, solvents, biocides, scale inhibitors, and other organic chemicals at levels of 1000 s of μg/L for individual compounds. Levels of these hydraulic fracturing chemicals and TOC decrease rapidly over the first 20 days of water recovery and some level of residual organic contaminants remain up to 250 days after hydraulic fracturing. Although the environmental impacts of the organics in produced water are not well defined, results suggest that care should be exercised in the disposal and release of produced waters containing these organic substances into the environment because of the potential toxicity of many of these substances.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Evaluating aromatization of solid bitumen generated in the presence and absence of water: Implications for solid bitumen reflectance as a thermal proxy

Geological models for petroleum generation suggest thermal conversion of oil-prone sedimentary organic matter in the presence of water promotes increased liquid saturate yield, whereas absence of water causes formation of an aromatic, cross-linked solid bitumen residue. To test the influence of hydrogen from water, organic-rich (22 wt% total organic carbon , TOC) mudrock samples from the Eocene lacustrine Green River Formation Mahogany zone oil shale were pyrolyzed under hydrous and anhydrous conditions in closed system batch reactors at temperatures between 300 and 370 °C for 72 h. Pre- and post-pyrolysis samples were characterized using petrographic approaches including optical microscopy , reflectance, Raman spectroscopy , and scanning electron and transmission electron microscopy to quantify differences in relative appearance, abundance, and composition of solid bitumen newly generated during the pyrolysis experiments. Petrographic analyses were supplemented by geochemical screening measurements (TOC content and programmed temperature pyrolysis). Results show post-hydrous pyrolysis residues contain lower TOC, are comprised of solid bitumen with greater aromaticity , and have textures indicative of lower viscosities, relative to anhydrous residues from the same temperature pyrolysis conditions. These observations suggest solid bitumen forming from thermal conversion of oil-prone sedimentary organic matter under anhydrous conditions may be less aromatic, although more cross-linked, than solid bitumen forming under hydrous conditions at the same time-temperature combination. To explain these results, we suggest that a radical disproportionation mechanism is favored in the presence of hydrogen donated from water, and that this disproportionation promotes aromatization in the solid residue with concomitant expulsion of saturated hydrocarbons.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Assessing environmental influences on gene flow for a migratory ungulate in a fire-prone landscape

Context Migratory species traverse long distances across complex landscape mosaics. Shifts in environmental attributes across space and time could affect movement paths and genetic connectivity of migratory species. Objectives We identified boundaries to genetic connectivity based on population structure and evaluated environmental influences on gene flow in a migratory ungulate. We projected how genetic connectivity might be affected by actual wildfire events. Methods We collected over 168,400 GPS locations for 97 bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) and estimated kinship with 5,140 single nucleotide polymorphisms for 95 individuals. We identified subpopulations and employed machine-learning optimization to evaluate how environmental attributes affect gene flow between them. We projected future genetic connectivity based on recent landscape changes. Results We observed that water bodies and > 70% canopy cover may limit effective dispersal, suggesting that shifts in these landscape attributes, influenced by climate and vegetation management, may affect future gene flow. We also predicted recent wildfire events will change gene flow between three subpopulations, predicting more flow where fire reduced canopy cover at a pinchpoint near a linear lake and less flow where fire was internal to the subpopulation. Conclusions Modifications in canopy cover could be applied to facilitate or impede connectivity and gene flow, depending on management goals. Large, semi-linear lakes could form movement barriers in other bighorn populations. Recent wildfires will likely increase gene flow between semi-isolated subpopulations, with implications for disease management. As wildfire and tree encroachment and densification increase, gene flow between other spatially structured populations in similar landscapes may shift.

British Columbia, Montana↗

Late Holocene lake-level variation in southeastern Lake Superior: Tahquamenon Bay, Michigan

Internal architecture and ages of 71 beach ridges in the Tahquamenon Bay embayment along the southeastern shore of Lake Superior on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan were studied to generate a late Holocene relative lake-level curve. Establishing a long-term framework is important to examine the context of historic events and help predict potential future changes critical for effective water resource management. Ridges in the embayment formed between about 4,200 and 2,100 calendar years before 1950 (cal. yrs. B.P.) and were created and preserved every 28 ± 4.8 years on average. Groups of three to six beach ridges coupled with inflections in the lake-level curve indicate a history of lake levels fluctuations and outlet changes. A rapid lake-level drop (approximately 4 m) from about 4,100 to 3,800 cal. yrs. B.P. was associated with a fall from the Nipissing II high-water-level phase. A change from a gradual fall to a slight rise was associated with an outlet change from Port Huron, Michigan/Sarnia, Ontario to Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan/Ontario. A complete outlet change occurred after the Algoma high-water-level phase (ca. 2,400 cal. yrs. B.P.). Preliminary rates of vertical ground movement calculated from the strandplain are much greater than rates calculated from historical and geologic data. High rates of vertical ground movement could have caused tectonism in the Whitefish Bay area, modifying the strandplain during the past 2,400 years. A tectonic event at or near the Sault outlet also may have been a factor in the outlet change from Port Huron/Sarnia to Sault Ste. Marie.

Michigan↗

A field-trip guide to Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho: Volcanic, hydrothermal, and glacial activity in the region

This field-trip guide was originally prepared for the 7th International Symposium on Water/Rock Interaction (WRI-7) held in July 1992 in Park City, Utah. A large and diversified group of earth scientists and accompanying family members participated in this 3 1/2-day field trip that focused on water/rock interactions over widely ranging temperatures and pressures in the Yellowstone/Grand Teton region. Emphasis was placed on the geochemical and hydrologic characteristics of the thermal waters in the major "geyser basins" of Yellowstone National Park. Information specific to the WRI-7 trip about logistics, lodging, and meals has been deleted from the present guide. The scientific content remains mostly unchanged, except for the addition of a glossary, two illustrations, all photographs, and some text previously presented to the field-trip participants in supplementary materials (see appendix A). Most of the geyser basins in Yellowstone National Park are on a high volcanic plateau at elevations of 2,000 to 2,200 m and are surrounded by much higher mountain ranges. In the middle of summer there generally are cool evenings and early mornings and warm afternoons. Visits to the localities described require short walks, mostly on boardwalks, but some are on what may be wet ground. No long, strenuous climbs are required. Expect brief afternoon thunder showers, particularly at Old Faithful. Please remember that the collecting of any kind of sample in a national park is prohibited except by those who have specific sampling permits issued by the National Park Service. Field-trip participants are asked to leave geologic picks and hammers at home or in their luggage while in Yellowstone National Park.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California↗

Temporal trends and stationarity in annual peak flow and peak-flow timing for selected long-term streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana through water year 2011: Chapter B in Montana StreamStats

A large-scale study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, was done to investigate general patterns in peak-flow temporal trends and stationarity through water year 2011 for 24 long-term streamflow-gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as gaging stations) in Montana. Hereinafter, all years refer to water years; a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. The primary focus of the study was to identify general patterns in peak-flow temporal trends and stationarity that are relevant to application of peak-flow frequency analyses within a statewide gaging-station network. Temporal trends were analyzed for two hydrologic variables: annual peak flow and peak-flow timing. Annual peak flow is the maximum instantaneous discharge, in cubic feet per second, recorded each year a gaging station was operated. Peak-flow timing is the day of the annual peak flow (hereinafter referred to as day of peak), recorded each year a gaging station was operated. Study results provide evidence that annual peak flow for most of the long-term gaging stations can be reasonably considered as stationary for application of peak-flow frequency analyses within a statewide gaging station network. Upward trends in annual peak flow during 1930&ndash;76 generally were stronger than downward trends during 1967&ndash;2011 for most long-term gaging stations. Statistical distributions of annual peak flow generally were similar among three summary time periods (1930&ndash;78, 1979&ndash;2011, and the entire period of record). However, for two low-elevation gaging stations in eastern Montana (Poplar River at international boundary [gaging station 06178000] and Powder River at Moorhead, Montana [gaging station 06324500]), substantial downward trends in annual peak flow during 1967&ndash;2011 were of similar or stronger magnitude than the upward trends during 1930&ndash;76, and the annual-peak-flow medians for 1979&ndash;2011 were substantially lower than the medians for the entire period of record. For peak-flow timing for most long-term gaging stations, differences in trends between 1930&ndash;76 and 1967&ndash;2011 are variable and not particularly strong. Statistical distributions generally are similar among the summary time periods. However, for two high-elevation gaging stations on a Missouri River headwater tributary (Gallatin River near Gallatin Gateway, Montana [gaging station 06043500] and Gallatin River at Logan, Montana [gaging station 06052500]) and for five high-elevation gaging stations in the Yellowstone River Basin (Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs, Montana [gaging station 06191500], Yellowstone River near Livingston, Montana [gaging station 06192500], Clarks Fork Yellowstone River near Belfry, Montana [gaging station 06207500], Clarks Fork Yellowstone River at Edgar, Montana [gaging station 06208500], and Yellowstone River at Billings, Montana [gaging station 06214500]) downward trends in peak-flow timing during 1967&ndash;2011 generally were stronger than upward trends during 1930&ndash;1976, and day-of-peak medians for 1979&ndash;2011 were considerably less than medians for 1930&ndash;78. The downward trends in peak-flow timing for 1967&ndash;2011 indicate that the timing of annual peak flows changed from later in the year to earlier in the year. For the seven high-elevation gaging stations, the mean change during 1967&ndash;2011 was about 13 days (range of 8 to 22 days). For most of the high-elevation gaging stations in the Missouri River headwaters, Yellowstone River Basin, and Columbia River Basin, there was general correspondence between trend patterns for annual peak flow and trend patterns for peak-flow timing; that is, during periods when there were upward trends in annual peak flow, there generally also were upward trends in peak-flow timing. Conversely, during periods when there were downward trends in annual peak flow, there generally also were downward trends in peak-flow timing. The two low-elevation gaging stations in eastern Montana (Poplar River at international boundary [gaging station 06178000] and Powder River at Moorhead, Montana [gaging station 06324500]) had considerable changes in annual-peakflow characteristics after the mid-1970s, which might provide evidence of potential nonstationarity in the peak-flow records. The two low-elevation gaging stations that have potential nonstationarity are located in drainage basins that are strongly affected by agricultural activities that potentially affect the hydrologic regimes. Primary agricultural activities that might alter natural hydrologic conditions include construction of small impoundments (primarily for stock-watering purposes) and irrigation diversions. Temporal variability in these activities might contribute to the potential nonstationarity issues. Changes in climatic characteristics after the mid-1970s also possibly contribute to the potential nonstationarity issues. Lack of considerable indication of potential nonstationarity in annual peak flow for the other long-term gaging stations in this study might indicate that climatic changes have been more pronounced with respect to effects on peak flows in low elevation areas in eastern Montana than in areas represented by the other long-term gaging stations. Another possibility is that climatic changes after the mid-1970s are exacerbated in low-elevation areas where small-impoundment development and potential effects of irrigation diversions might be more extensive.

Montana↗

Paleoecology of the Springfield Coal Member (Desmoinesian, Illinois Basin) near the Leslie Cemetery paleochannel, southwestern Indiana

The Springfield Coal Member (Carbondale Group, Petersburg Formation of Indiana) is split locally in Warrick and Gibson Counties, Indiana, by clastic rocks of the Folsomville Member (Carbondale Group, Petersburg Formation) that represent the Leslie Cemetery paleochannel, part of a large, interconnected paleochannel system in the Springfield coal bed. This study incorporated analysis of miospore and megaspore assemblages, coal petrography, plant compression fossils and conodonts from the coal and clastic split to document changes in the swamp and its vegetation in response to the activity of the Leslie Cemetery paleochannel. Palynological and petrographic data indicate that environmental conditions and vegetation in the lower bench of coal near the Leslie Cemetery paleochannel were similar to those found in profiles through the coal bed at sites near the larger, more extensive Galatia paleochannel. Miospore floras of the high-vitrinite, lower bench of coal were dominated by tree-fern miospores, with those of lycopsids ranking second in abundance; megaspore assemblages were dominated by lycopsid megaspores. Near the contacy between the lower bench of coal and clastic split, medullosan prepollen increases in abundance and fusain bands are more common, which may indicate the occurrence of fire, either within or outside the swamp. Vegetation in the Folsomville Member and upper bench of coal differ markedly from that of the lower bench of coal. Plant megafossils from the Folsomville Member indicate dominance by pteridosperms and/or lycopsids and Folsomville Member miospore assemblages are dominated by lycopsid miospores most typically found in mudstones, including Lycospora torquifer and higher than normal abundances of Granasporites medius . In the transition from clastic rocks of the Folsomville Member to the upper bench of coal, miospores of ‘ecotonal’ lycopsids ( Paralycopodites ) reach their peak abundance, pteridosperms dominate megafossil assemblages and inertinite levels are relatively high. At higher levels of the upper bench of coal, vitrinite levels are higher and miospore assemblages are dominated by lycopsid miospores typical of coal swamps ( Lycospora granulata, L. pusilla ). The presence of conodonts in coalballs in the upper bench of coal and spirorbid worms in the split indicate that the paleoswamp may have received some marine or brackish water influence. Higher than normal salinity levels may explain the vegetational changes observed in the upper bench of coal near the Leslie Cemetery paleochannel.

Indiana↗

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models ( Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004 ). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Ecological Modelling↗

Arsenic in private well water and birth outcomes in the United States

Background Prenatal exposure to drinking water with arsenic concentrations >50 μg/L is associated with adverse birth outcomes, with inconclusive evidence for concentrations ≤50 μg/L. In a collaborative effort by public health experts, hydrologists, and geologists, we used published machine learning model estimates to characterize arsenic concentrations in private wells—federally unregulated for drinking water contaminants—and evaluated associations with birth outcomes throughout the conterminous U.S. Methods Using several machine learning models, including boosted regression trees (BRT) and random forest classification (RFC), developed from measured groundwater arsenic concentrations of ∼20,000 private wells, we characterized the probability that arsenic concentrations occurred within specific ranges in groundwater. Probabilistic model estimates and private well usage data were linked by county to all live birth certificates from 2016 (n = 3.6 million). We evaluated associations with gestational age and term birth weight using mixed-effects models, adjusted for potential confounders and incorporated random intercepts for spatial clustering. Results We generally observed inverse associations with term birth weight. For instance, when using BRT estimates, a 10-percentage point increase in the probability that private well arsenic concentrations exceeded 5 μg/L was associated with a −1.83 g (95% CI: −3.30, −0.38) lower term birth weight after adjusting for covariates. Similarly, a 10-percentage point increase in the probability that private well arsenic concentrations exceeded 10 μg/L was associated with a −2.79 g (95% CI: −4.99, −0.58) lower term birth weight. Associations with gestational age were null. Conclusion In this largest epidemiologic study of arsenic and birth outcomes to date, we did not observe associations of modeled arsenic estimates in private wells with gestational age and found modest inverse associations with term birth weight. Study limitations may have obscured true associations, including measurement error stemming from a lack of individual-level information on primary water sources, water arsenic concentrations, and water consumption patterns.

Environment International↗

An approach to regional wetland digital elevation model development using a differential global positioning system and a custom-built helicopter-based surveying system

Accurate topographic data are critical to restoration science and planning for the Everglades region of South Florida, USA. They are needed to monitor and simulate water level, water depth and hydroperiod and are used in scientific research on hydrologic and biologic processes. Because large wetland environments and data acquisition challenge conventional ground-based and remotely sensed data collection methods, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) adapted a classical data collection instrument to global positioning system (GPS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies. Data acquired with this instrument were processed using geostatistics to yield sub-water level elevation values with centimetre accuracy (±15 cm). The developed database framework, modelling philosophy and metadata protocol allow for continued, collaborative model revision and expansion, given additional elevation or other ancillary data.

Florida↗

Habitat restoration as a means of controlling non-native fish in a Mojave desert Oasis

Non-native fish generally cause native fish decline, and once non-natives are established, control or elimination is usually problematic. Because non-native fish colonization has been greatest in anthropogenically altered habitats, restoring habitat similar to predisturbance conditions may offer a viable means of non-native fish control. In this investigation we identified habitats favoring native over non-native fish in a Mojave Desert oasis (Ash Meadows) and used this information to restore one of its major warm water spring systems (Kings Pool Spring). Prior to restoration, native fishes predominated in warm water (25-32??C) stream and spring-pool habitat, whereas non-natives predominated in cool water (???23??C) spring-pool and marsh/slack water habitat. Native Amargosa pupfish (Cyprinodon nevadensis) and Ash Meadows speckled dace (Rhinichthys osculus nevadensis) inhabited significantly faster mean water column velocities (MWCV) and greater total depth (TD) than non-native Sailfin molly (Poecilia latipinna) and Mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) in warm water stream habitat, and Ash Meadows speckled dace inhabited significantly faster water than non-natives in cool water stream habitat. Modification of the outflow of Kings Pool Spring from marsh to warm water stream, with MWCV, TD, and temperature favoring native fish, changed the fish composition from predominantly non-native Sailfin molly and Mosquitofish to predominantly Ash Meadows pupfish. This result supports the hypothesis that restoring spring systems to a semblance of predisturbance conditions would promote recolonization of native fishes and deter non-native fish invasion and proliferation. ?? 2005 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Nevada↗

Minisparker profiles from Jeffreys Ledge and adjacent areas in the western Gulf of Maine

A total of 250 kilometers of single-channel seismic-reflection data (28 minisparker profiles) were collected in the coastal waters of Massachusetts, north of and immediately south of Cape Ann, and on the western flank of Jeffreys Ledge, western Gulf of Maine, during the September 1978 cruise of the R/V ASTERIAS. The survey was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Massachusetts Cooperative Marine Geologic Program. The seismic systems used included a 1Del Norte minisparker and streamer, an Energy International Streamer, and EPC 3200 and 4100 recorders. Navigational control was established by Radar and Loran-C. The Loran-C navigation data were recorded on a Northstar 6000 system. The purpose of the cruise was to discover the significance and extent of the folded and faulted internal reflections that were first noticed on the esternmost tip of Jeffreys Ledge in line 14 of esternmost tip of Jeffreys Ledge in line 14 of rninisparker data from the 1976 R/V FAY 023 cruise. Sixteen northwest-trending lines were run off Cape Ann to investigate the deformed reflectors, now thought to represent a moraine formed by readvance of continental ice over the last glacial marine Presurnpscot Formation. Lines north and south of Cape Ann were run to locate the offshore extension of the Clinton-Newbury and Bloody Bluff fault systems. The original records can be studied at the U.S. Geological Survey offices at Woods Hole, Mass. Microfilm copies of the records can be purchased only from the National Geophysical and Solar-Terrestrial Data Center, NOAA/EDIS/NGSDC, Code D621, 325 Broadway; Boulder, CO 80303 (303-497-6338)

Open-File Report↗

A climate risk management screening and assessment review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy

Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is usually considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been numerous challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions but also due to insufficient scientific information to inform management decisions. To support the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in the incorporation of Climate Risk Management into their Country Development Cooperation Strategy, we synthesized the best available information on current and future climate change impacts. Climate risks in Madagascar include increasing temperatures, reduced and more variable precipitation, more frequent droughts, more intense cyclones, and rising sea levels. We synthesized the observed and projected impacts of these climatic changes on water resources, agriculture, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, fisheries, and human health. Through interviews with stakeholders in Madagascar, we also discerned ongoing and potential climate adaptation and mitigation activities and information gaps (production, access, exploitation, processing, dissemination of information). The information gathered can be used by USAID, NGOs, and other organizations on how to better incorporate climate risks into development strategies and projects in Madagascar.

Project Summary↗

Factors affecting nutrient trends in major rivers of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Trends in nutrient loads and flow-adjusted concentrations in the major rivers entering Chesapeake Bay were computed on the basis of water-quality data collected between 1985 and 1998 at 29 monitoring stations in the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, York, Patuxent, and Choptank River Basins. Two computer models-the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) and the U.S. Geological Survey's 'Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes' (SPARROW) Model-were used to help explain the major factors affecting the trends. Results from WSM simulations provided information on temporal changes in contributions from major nutrient sources, and results from SPARROW model simulations provided spatial detail on the distribution of nutrient yields in these basins. Additional data on nutrient sources, basin characteristics, implementation of management practices, and ground-water inputs to surface water were analyzed to help explain the trends. The major factors affecting the trends were changes in nutrient sources and natural variations in streamflow. The dominant source of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1985 to 1998 in six of the seven tributary basins to Chesapeake Bay was determined to be agriculture. Because of the predominance of agricultural inputs, changes in agricultural nutrient sources such as manure and fertilizer, combined with decreases in agricultural acreage and implementation of best management practices (BMPs), had the greatest impact on the trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations. Urban acreage and population, however, were noted to be increasing throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and as a result, delivered loads of nutrients from urban areas increased during the study period. Overall, agricultural nutrient management, in combination with load decreases from point sources due to facility upgrades and the phosphate detergent ban, led to downward trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations atmany of the monitoring stations in the watershed. The loads of nutrients, however, were not reduced significantly at most of the monitoring stations. This is due primarily to higher streamflow in the latter years of the monitoring period, which led to higher loading in those years. Results of this study indicate a need for more detailed information on BMP effectiveness under a full range of hydrologic conditions and in different areas of the watershed; an internally consistent fertilizer data set; greater consideration of the effects of watershed processes on nutrient transport; a refinement of current modeling efforts; and an expansion of the non-tidal monitoring network in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

Coastal ocean transport patterns in the central Southern California Bight

In the past decade, several large programs that monitor currents and transport patterns for periods from a few months to a few years were conducted by a consortium of university, federal, state, and municipal agencies in the central Southern California Bight, a heavily urbanized section of the coastal ocean off the west coast of the United States encompassing Santa Monica Bay, San Pedro Bay, and the Palos Verdes shelf. These programs were designed in part to determine how alongshelf and cross-shelf currents move sediments, pollutants, and suspended material through the region. Analysis of the data sets showed that the current patterns in this portion of the Bight have distinct changes in frequency and amplitude with location, in part because the topography of the shelf and upper slope varies rapidly over small spatial scales. However, because the mean, subtidal, and tidal-current patterns in any particular location were reasonably stable with time, one could determine a regional pattern for these current fields in the central Southern California Bight even though measurements at the various locations were obtained at different times. In particular, because the mean near-surface flows over the San Pedro and Palos Verdes shelves are divergent, near-surface waters from the upper slope tend to carry suspended material onto the shelf in the northwestern portion of San Pedro Bay. Water and suspended material are also carried off the shelf by the mean and subtidal flow fields in places where the orientation of the shelf break changes abruptly. The barotropic tidal currents in the central Southern California Bight flow primarily alongshore, but they have pronounced amplitude variations over relatively small changes in alongshelf location that are not totally predicted by numerical tidal models. Nonlinear internal tides and internal bores at tidal frequencies are oriented more across the shelf. They do not have a uniform transport direction, since they move fine sediment from the shelf to the slope in Santa Monica Bay, but carry suspended material from the mid-shelf to the beach in San Pedro Bay. It is clear that there are a large variety of processes that transport sediments and contaminants along and across the shelf in the central Southern California Bight. However, because these processes have a variety of frequencies and relatively small spatial scales, the dominant transport processes tend to be localized and have dissimilar characteristics even in adjacent regions of this small part of the coastal ocean. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗

Flood-inundation maps for Lake Champlain in Vermont and New York

In 2016, digital flood-inundation maps along the shoreline of Lake Champlain in Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont and northern Clinton County in New York were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the International Joint Commission (IJC). This report discusses the creation of updated static digital flood-inundation mapping, in 2018, to include the entire shoreline of Lake Champlain in the United States. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water-surface elevations (stages) at the USGS lake gages on Lake Champlain. As a result of the record setting floods of May 2011 in Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River, the U.S. and Canadian governments requested that the IJC issue a reference for a study to identify how flood forecasting, preparedness, and mitigation could be improved in the Lake Champlain–Richelieu River Basin. The IJC submitted the Lake Champlain–Richelieu River Plan of Study to the governments of Canada and the United States in 2013. The flood-inundation maps in this study are one aspect of the task work outlined in the IJC 2013 Plan of Study. Wind and seiche effects (standing oscillating wave with a long wavelength) that can influence flooding along the Lake Champlain shoreline were not represented. The flood-inundation maps reflect 11 stages for Lake Champlain that are static for the entire area of the lake. Near-real-time stages at the USGS gages on Lake Champlain may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System website at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ ( https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN ) or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ . Updated static flood-inundation boundary extents were created for Lake Champlain in Franklin, Chittenden, Addison, Rutland, and Grand Isle Counties in Vermont and Clinton, Essex, and Washington Counties in New York by using recently acquired (2009, 2012, 2014, and 2015) light detection and ranging (lidar) data. The corresponding flood-inundation maps may be referenced to any of the four active USGS lake gages on Lake Champlain. Of these four active lake gages, USGS lake gage 04295000, Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y.; USGS lake gage 04294500, Lake Champlain at Burlington, Vt.; USGS lake gage 04279085 Lake Champlain north of Whitehall, N.Y.; and USGS lake gage 04294413, Lake Champlain at Port Henry, N.Y., only the Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y., gage also serves as a National Weather Service prediction location. Lake Champlain static flood-inundation map boundary extents corresponding to the May 2011 peak flood stage (103.20 feet [ft], National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 [NGVD 29], as recorded at the USGS Rouses Point lake gage, were compared to the flood-inundation area extents determined from satellite imagery for the May 2011 flood (which incorporated documented high-water marks from the flood of May 2011) and were found to be in good agreement. The May 2011 flood is the highest recorded lake water level (stage) at the Rouses Point, N.Y., and Burlington, Vt., lake gages. Flood stages greater than 101.5 ft (NGVD 29) exceed the “major flood stage” as defined by the National Weather Service for USGS lake gage 04295000. Updated digital elevation models (DEMs) were created from the recent lidar data for Lake Champlain in Vermont and New York. These DEMs were used in determining the flood-inundation boundary and associated depth grids for 11 flood stages at 0.5-ft or 1-ft intervals from 100.0 to 106.0 ft (NGVD 29) as referenced to the USGS lake gages. In addition, the May 2011 flood-inundation area for elevation 103.20 ft (NGVD 29) (102.77 ft, North American Vertical Datum of 1988) was determined from these updated DEMs. The availability of these maps, along with online information regarding current stages at the USGS lake gages and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service at USGS lake gage 04295000, Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, N.Y., will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

New York, Vermont↗

Monitoring marine eruptions

Introduction Submarine volcanoes produce much of the same seismicity and eruptive activity as subaerial volcanoes and can pose hazards to society. Although they can be monitored with similar techniques and methods as described in other chapters of this volume, their submerged location brings unique challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges and provides recommendations for monitoring volcanoes fully or partly in marine environments to meet the capabilities described in other chapters of this volume. The United States and its territories host dozens of submarine volcanoes with most (around 60) in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Approximately 20 of the Northern Mariana Islands submarine volcanoes are known to be hydrothermally active, and 10 have confirmed eruptions since the 1950s (for example, Baker and others, 2008; Tepp and others, 2019a). Nine of those volcanoes were considered by the National Volcanic Threat Assessment (Ewert and others, 2018) to have a combination of eruptive type and summit depth that poses a higher risk of hazardous eruptions, although only one was listed as a moderate (level 3) threat. Other notable submarine volcanoes of interest to the United States that have historically erupted are Axial Seamount off the Washington State coast, Kamaʻehuakanaloa in Hawaiʻi, and Vailuluʻu seamount in American Samoa. All of these, however, have a low risk of hazards because of their depth (greater than 600 meters below sea level) and eruptive type and so are not included in the National Volcanic Threat Assessment. In addition to submarine volcanoes, the submerged flanks of island volcanoes can also be a source of hazardous submarine eruptions—for example, the 1877 eruption of Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, in Kealakekua Bay (Wanless and others, 2006). The most notable submarine eruption in recent times was the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai in Tonga, which was one of the largest eruptions on Earth in the past 100 years. It created a massive volcanic plume, unprecedented shock waves, and far-reaching tsunami (Lynett and others, 2022). Other recent submarine eruptions in the Pacific Ocean Basin have produced subaerial plumes that reached aircraft heights (Carey and others, 2014) and large pumice rafts that can affect marine traffic and harbors (for example, Jutzeler and others, 2014; Kornei, 2019). These examples illustrate the potential hazards of major submarine eruptions. Yet, submarine volcanoes are largely unmonitored, and many eruptions occur that are unnoticed or only identified hours or days afterward. Within U.S. territory, submarine volcanoes in the Northern Mariana Islands have been known to produce eruptive activity that can affect society. Reports from fishermen and other marine vessels in the Northern Mariana Islands have noted underwater explosions, sea-surface discoloration, and bubbling water, all of which are known to be signs of submarine volcanic activity. South Sarigan seamount, located about 160 kilometers (km) north of Saipan, erupted in 2010 from greater than 150 meters below the sea surface, resulting in a gas and ash plume that reached more than 11.9 km into the atmosphere (for example, Searcy, 2013; Embley and others, 2014), high enough to affect international air traffic. Precursory and co-eruptive seismicity was detected on the regional Northern Mariana Islands seismic network (Searcy, 2013) and on global monitoring instruments (Green and others, 2013). Monitoring of submarine volcanoes is best accomplished with marine-based instrumentation, which is also useful for monitoring small island volcanoes that may not have the land area necessary for comprehensive subaerial monitoring. The primary marine-based instrumentation used for submarine volcanoes includes ocean-bottom pressure sensors to assess sea-floor deformation, ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) to detect seismicity, and both moored and ocean-bottom hydrophones to detect submarine explosions. Other sensors offer important monitoring data, such as turbidity, temperature, and chemistry of hydrothermal emissions. Marine-based instruments are typically deployed in campaign-style networks with no real-time telemetry owing to cost considerations and technical limitations. However, when necessary, marine instruments can be operated in real time using cables to transmit data to land-based facilities; other technologies for this purpose are in use or in development, such as acoustic transmission from the instrument to a moored buoy (Matsumoto and others, 2016) and a winch-based system with a satellite antenna that is part of the instrument mooring (Matsumoto and others, 2019). Emerging technologies for marine-based monitoring may be considered as part of a future monitoring plan. These technologies include ocean gliders and floats with on-board hydrophones that have been used to record earthquakes and submarine eruptions (for example, Matsumoto and others, 2013; Sukhovich and others, 2015) and fiber-optic cables that have been used as strainmeters to detect earthquakes (for example, Marra and others, 2018; Lindsey and others, 2019). Land-based instruments and satellites can also provide some capability for monitoring submarine volcanoes, but they provide more limited observations than marine-based instrumentation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗