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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Integrated synoptic surveys of the hydrodynamics and water-quality distributions in two Lake Michigan rivermouth mixing zones using an autonomous underwater vehicle and a manned boat

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Monitoring Network for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries, launched a pilot project in 2010 to determine the value of integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouths using autonomous underwater vehicle technology in response to a call for rivermouth research, which includes study domains that envelop both the fluvial and lacustrine boundaries of the rivermouth mixing zone. The pilot project was implemented at two Lake Michigan rivermouths with largely different scales, hydrodynamics, and settings, but employing primarily the same survey techniques and methods. The Milwaukee River Estuary Area of Concern (AOC) survey included measurements in the lower 2 to 3 miles of the Milwaukee, Menomonee, and Kinnickinnic Rivers and inner and outer Milwaukee Harbor. This estuary is situated in downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and is the most populated basin that flows directly into Lake Michigan. In contrast, the Manitowoc rivermouth has a relatively small harbor separating the rivermouth from Lake Michigan, and the Manitowoc River Watershed is primarily agricultural. Both the Milwaukee and Manitowoc rivermouths are unregulated and allow free exchange of water with Lake Michigan. This pilot study of the Milwaukee River Estuary and Manitowoc rivermouth using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) paired with a manned survey boat resulted in high spatial and temporal resolution datasets of basic water-quality parameter distributions and hydrodynamics. The AUV performed well in these environments and was found primarily well-suited for harbor and nearshore surveys of three-dimensional water-quality distributions. Both case studies revealed that the use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and multiparameter sonde (and an optional flow-through water-quality sampling system) was the best option for riverine surveys. To ensure that the most accurate and highest resolution velocity data were collected concurrently with the AUV surveys, the pilot study used a manned boat equipped with an ADCP. Combining the AUV and manned boat datasets resulted in datasets that are essentially continuous from the fluvial through the lacustrine zones of a rivermouth. Whereas the pilot studies were completed during low flows on the tributaries, completion of surveys at higher flows using the same techniques is possible, but the use of the AUV would be limited to areas with relatively low velocities (less than 2 feet per second) such as the harbors and nearshore zones of Lake Michigan. Overall, this pilot study aimed at evaluation of AUV technology for integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouth mixing zones was successful, and the techniques and methods employed in this pilot study should be transferrable to other sites with similar success. The use of the AUV provided significant time savings compared to traditional sampling techniques. For example, the survey of outer Milwaukee Harbor using the AUV required less than 7 hours for approximately 600 profiles compared to the 150 hours it would have taken using traditional methods in a manned boat (a 95 percent reduction in man-hours). The integrated datasets resulting from the AUV and manned survey boat are of high value and present a picture of the mixing and hydrodynamics of these highly dynamic, highly variable rivermouth mixing zones from the relatively well-mixed fluvial environment through the rivermouth to the stratified lacustrine receiving body of Lake Michigan. Such datasets not only allow researchers to understand more about the physical processes occurring in these rivermouths, but they provide high spatial resolution data required for interpretation of relations between disparate point samples and calibration and validation of numerical models.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2013

Effects of Canada goose herbivory on the tidal freshwater wetlands in Anacostia Park, 2009-2011

Herbivory has played a major role in dictating vegetation abundance and species composition at Kingman Marsh in Anacostia Park, Washington, D.C., since restoration of this tidal freshwater wetland was initiated in 2000. The diverse and robust vegetative cover that developed in the first year post-reconstruction experienced significant decimation in the second year, after the protective fencing was removed, and remained suppressed throughout the five-year study period. In June 2009 a herbivory study was initiated to document the impacts of herbivory by resident and nonmigratory Canada geese (Branta canadensis) to vegetation at Kingman Marsh. Sixteen modules consisting of paired fenced plots and unfenced control plots were constructed. Eight of the modules were installed in vegetated portions of the restoration site that had been protected over time by pre-existing fencing, while the remaining eight modules were placed in portions of the site that had not been protected over time and were basically unvegetated at the start of the experiment. Exclosure fencing was sufficiently elevated from the substrate level to allow access to other herbivores such as fish and turtles, while hopefully excluding mature Canada geese. The study was designed with an initial exclosure elevation of 20 cm. This elevation was chosen based on the literature, as adequate to exclude mature Canada geese, while maximizing access to other herbivores such as fish and turtles. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the differences between paired fenced and unfenced control plots for a number of variables including total vegetative cover. Differences in total vegetative cover were not statistically significant for the baseline data collected in June 2009. By contrast, two months after the old protective fencing was removed from the initially-vegetated areas to allow Canada geese access to the unfenced control plots, total vegetative cover had declined dramatically in the initially-vegetated unfenced control plots, and differences between paired fenced and unfenced control plots were statistically significant. These differences have remained steady and significant throughout the remainder of these first three years of the study. Total vegetative cover has followed a somewhat different path in the initially-unvegetated modules, where cover in the fenced plots did not significantly exceed cover in the unfenced control plots until the August 2010 sampling event. In spite of the slow start in the initially-unvegetated modules, differences between paired fenced plots and unfenced control plots have remained significant and even increased significantly over time. This indicates that total vegetative cover in the initially-unvegetated fenced plots and unfenced control plots is continuing to diverge over time as vegetation increases in the protected plots compared to the basically unvegetated unfenced control plots. Total vegetative cover has been composed almost entirely of native species during the first three years of the study, with cover by exotics averaging less than 1% during each sampling event. Species richness did not differ significantly between fenced plots and unfenced control plots during 2009, the first year of the study. Since August 2010, species richness has remained significantly greater in the fenced plots than in the unfenced control plots. These differences have remained relatively steady over time for both the initially-vegetated and initially unvegetated modules. During the study it became apparent that our elevated fence plots were more accessible to mature geese than we had expected. Even after lowering the exclosure fencing to 15 cm in 2010 and 10 cm in 2011, we documented geese inside exclosures in both years. Nonetheless the data indicate that even at 10 cm, we have limited the numbers of mature geese entering the fenced plots, rather than totally preventing their access through low spots in the uneven substrate surface. At an exclosure elevation of 10 cm and with a soft, mucky substrate, we are assuming that non-goose herbivores such as fish and turtles still have free access to the fenced plots. Annual wildrice (Zizania aquatica), known from previous studies to be especially palatable to Canada geese, has seen the greatest impact from partial access to the fenced plots by mature geese, moving from an overwhelming dominant in the initially-vegetated plots to a minor presence there by August 2011. Interestingly, pickerelweed (Pontederia cordata), also known to be highly palatable to Canada geese, has so far shown only minor herbivory in the fenced plots. By August 2011, pickerelweed had actually increased to significantly greater cover levels in the fenced plots compared to the unfenced control plots. In conclusion, the first three years of data document that vegetation exposed to full herbivory by resident and nonmigratory Canada geese for three years in the unfenced control plots showed significantly lower total vegetative cover and species richness compared to the vegetation in the fenced plots, which experienced reduced herbivory by resident and nonmigratory Canada geese. These effects were documented for modules located in both initially-vegetated and initially-unvegetated habitats.

Maryland↗
USGS2003

Geochemistry of the Johnson River, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska

The Johnson River Basin, located in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, drains an area of 96 square miles. A private inholding in the upper part of the basin contains a gold deposit that may be developed in the future. To establish a natural baseline to compare potential effects on water quality if development were to occur, the upper part of the Johnson River Basin was studied from 1999 to 2001 as part of a cooperative study with the National Park Service. Two basic rock types occur within the drainage basin of the study: the Jurassic Talkeetna Formation of interbedded volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks, and the slightly younger plutonic rocks of the Aleutian-Alaska Ranges batholith. The Johnson River gold prospect reflects widespread, secondary mineralization and alteration of the Talkeetna Formation. Metals found at the prospect proper are: arsenic, cadmium, copper, gold, iron, lead, mercury, molybdenum, selenium, silver, and zinc. The Johnson River prospect is located in the East Fork Ore Creek Basin, a 0.5 square mile watershed that is a tributary to the Johnson River. Water quality data from this stream reflect the mineralization of the basin and the highest concentrations of several trace elements and major ions of the water column were found in this stream. Presently, pH in this stream is normal, indicating that there is sufficient buffering capacity. At the Johnson River streamgage, which drains approximately 25 mi2 including the East Fork Ore Creek, concentrations of these constituents are significantly lower, reflecting the runoff from Johnson Glacier and Double Glacier, which account for approximately 75 percent of the total discharge. Streambed concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc from East Fork Ore Creek and its receiving stream, Ore Creek, typically exceed concentrations where sediment dwelling organisms would be affected. Similar to the water column chemistry, concentrations of these elements are lower at the Johnson River streamgage, reflecting the fine sediment input from the glacier streams draining Johnson Glacier and Double Glacier. The amount of organic carbon present in the study area is relatively low and most sites indicate that some degree of toxicity is present even though these basins do not contain mineralized areas. Acid based accounting tests on rock samples in the study area indicate a neutralizing capacity in the Talkeetna Formation rocks. These results should be used with caution because similar tests were not done on rocks from narrow veins or faults that could have acid generating potential. In addition, based on field tests during the study, carbonate-bearing rocks in streambeds are armored by a carbonate-depleted shell and would not readily neutralize acidic water.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1983

Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs a comprehensive method to evaluate the human health and environmental effects of alternative agricultural pest management strategies. This project explored the utility of Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) techniques for meeting this need. The project objectives were to produce models for environmental impact analysis, improve communications, identify research needs and data requirements, and demonstrate a process for resolving conflicts. The project was structured around the construction (in an initial 2 1/2-day workshop) and examination (in a second 2 1/2-day workshop) of a simulation model of a corn agroecosystem. The model conceptualized at the first workshop simulates the effect of corn agrecosystem decisions on crop production, economic returns, and environmental indicators. The model is composed of five interacting submodels: 1) a Production Strategies submodel which makes decisions concerning tillage, planting, fertilizer and pesticide applications, and harvest; 2) a Hydrology/Chemical Transport submodel which represents soil hydrology, erosion, and concentrations of fertilizers and pesticides in the soil, runoff, surface waters, and percolation; 3) a Vegetation submodel which simulates growth of agricultural crops (corns and soybeans) and weeds; 4) a Pests submodel which calculates pest population levels and resulting crop damage; and 5) an Environmental Effects submodel which calculates indicators of potential fish kills, human health effects, and wildlife habitat. The most persistent data gaps encountered in quantifying the model were coefficients to relate environmental consequences to alternative pest management strategies. While the model developed in the project is not yet accurate enough to be used for real-world decisions about the use of pesticides on corn, it does contain the basic structure upon which such a model could be built. More importantly at this stage of development, the project has shown that very complex systems can be modeled in short periods of time and that the process of building such models increases understanding among disciplinary specialists and between diverse institutional interests. This process can be useful to EPA as the agency cooperates with other institutions to meet its responsibilities in less costly ways. Activities at the second 2 1/2-day workshop included a review of the model, incorporation of necessary corrections, simulation of policy scenarios, and examination of techniques to address remaining institutional conflicts. Participants were divided into three groups representing environmental, production or industry, and regulatory interests. Each group developed scenarios that would be most appealing to their particular interest and the scenarios were simulated by the agroecosystem computer model. Negotiators from each of the interest groups decided whether a hypothetical herbicide should be relabeled and if certain restrictions should be imposed on its use. Other participants functioned as experts and consultants on caucus teams. A solution to the hypothetical problem was successfully negotiated. Workshop participants and project staff agreed that the model and processes developed during the project should be used in training students, extension specialists, farmers, researchers, and chemical producers in collaborative problem solving methods. More productive research can be planned, and more realistic models of complex systems can be built in this way. More importantly, greater trust of decisionmakers in computer models, better understanding by technical experts about disciplines other than their own, and improved cooperation between institutional interests can be achieved. This trust, understanding, and cooperation are critical ingredients in solving problems that are too complex to be resolved by independent disciplinary activity and unilateral decision authority.

Report↗
USGS1997

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models for the Willamette River basin, Oregon

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models were constructed and assessed as part of a water-quality study of the Willamette River Basin. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) and was coordinated with the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study of the Willamette River. Routing models are needed to estimate streamflow so that water-quality constituent loads can be calculated from measured concentrations and so that sources, sinks, and downstream changes in those loads can be identified. Runoff models are needed to estimate ungaged-tributary inflows for routing models and to identify flow contributions from different parts of the basin. The runoff and routing models can be run either separately or together to simulate streamflow at various locations and to examine streamflow contributions from overland flow, shallow-subsurface flow, and ground-water flow. The 11,500-square-mile Willamette River Basin was partitioned into 21 major basins and 253 subbasins. For each subbasin, digital data layers of land use, soils, geology, and topography were combined in a geographic information system (GIS) to define hydrologic response units (HRU's), the basic computational unit for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Spatial data layers were also used to calculate noncalibrated PRMS parameter values. Other PRMS parameter values were obtained from 10 nearby calibrated subbasins of representative location and character. About 760 miles of the Willamette River system were partitioned into 4 main-stem networks and 17 major tributary networks for streamflow routing. Data from time-of-travel studies, discharge measurements, and flood analyses were used to develop equations that related stream cross-sectional area to discharge and stream width to discharge. These relations were derived for all 21 stream networks at approximately 3-mile intervals and used in the Diffusion Analogy Flow model (DAFLOW) in streamflow routing. Ten representative runoff models and 11 network-routing models were calibrated for water years 1972-75 and verified for water years 1976-78. These were the periods with the most complete and widespread streamflow record for the Willamette River Basin. Observed and estimated daily precipitation and daily minimum and maximum air temperature were used as input to the runoff models. The resulting coefficient of determination (R2) for the representative runoff models ranged from 0.69 to 0.93 for the calibration period and from 0.63 to 0.92 for the verification period; absolute errors ranged from 18 to 39 percent and from 27 to 51 percent, respectively. Bias error for the runoff modeling ranged from + 13 to -32 percent. Observed daily streamflow data were used as input to the network-routing models where available, and simulated streamflows from runoff model results were used for ungaged areas. Absolute error for the network-routing models ranged from about 21 percent for the Molalla River model, for which 70 percent of the subbasin was ungaged, to about 4 percent for the Willamette main-stem model (Albany to Salem), for which only 9 percent of the subbasin was ungaged. With an input of current streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature data the combined runoff and routing models can provide current estimates of streamflow at almost 500 locations on the main stem and major tributaries of the Willamette River with a high degree of accuracy. Relative contributions of surface runoff, subsurface flow, and ground-water flow can be assessed for 1 to 10 HRU classes in each of 253 subbasins identified for precipitation-runoff modeling. Model outputs were used with a water-quality model to simulate the movement of dye in the Pudding River as an example

Oregon↗
USGS1982

Radioactivity and geochemistry of selected mineral-spring waters in the Western United States; basic data and multivariate statistical analysis

Multivariate statistical analyses were performed on data from 156 mineral-spring sites in nine Western States to analyze relationships among the various parameters measured in the spring waters. Correlation analysis and R-mode factor analysis indicate that three major factors affect water composition in the spring systems studied: (1) duration of water circulation, (2) depth of water circulation, and (3) partial pressure of carbon dioxide. An examination of factor scores indicates that several types of hydrogeologic systems were sampled. Most of the samples are (1) older water from deeper circulating systems having relatively high salinity, high temperature, and low Eh or (2) younger water from shallower circulating systems having relatively low salinity, low temperature, and high Eh. The rest of the samples are from more complex systems. Any of the systems can have a relatively high or low content of dissolved carbonate species, resulting in a low or high pH, respectively. Uranium concentrations are commonly higher in waters of relatively low temperature and high Eh, and radium concentrations are commonly higher in waters having a relatively high carbonate content (low pH) and, secondarily, relatively high salinity. Water samples were collected and (or) measurements were taken at 156 of the 171 mineral-spring sites visited. Various samples were analyzed for radium, uranium, radon, helium, and radium-228 as well as major ions and numerous trace elements. On-site measurements for physical properties including temperature, specific conductance, pH, Eh, and dissolved oxygen were made. All constituents and properties show a wide range of values. Radium concentrations range from less than 0.01 to 300 picocuries per liter; they average 1.48 picocuries per liter and have an anomaly threshold value of 171 picocuries per liter for the samples studied. Uranium concentrations range from less than 0.01 to 120 micrograms per liter and average 0.26 micrograms per liter; they have an anomaly threshold value of 48.1 micrograms per liter. Radon content ranges from less than 10 to 110,000 picocuries per liter, averages 549 picocuries per liter and has an anomaly threshold of 20,400 picocuries per liter. Helium content ranges from -1,300 to +13,000 parts per billion relative to atmospheric helium; it averages +725 parts per billion and has an anomaly threshold of 10,000 parts per billion. Radium-228 concentrations range from less than 2.0 to 33 picocuries per liter; no anomaly threshold was determined owing to the small number of samples. All of the anomaly thresholds may be somewhat high because the sampling was biased toward springs likely to be radioactive. The statistical variance in radium and uranium concentrations unaccounted for by the identified factors testifies to the complexity of some hydrogeologic systems. Unidentified factors related to geologic setting and the presence of uranium-rich rocks in the systems also affect the observed concentrations of the radioactive elements in the water. The association of anomalous radioactivity in several springs with nearby known uranium occurrences indicates that other springs having anomalous radioactivity may also be associated with uranium occurrences as yet undiscovered.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1997

Evaluation of streamflow traveltime and streamflow gains and losses along the lower Purgatoire River, southeastern Colorado, 1984-92

Traveltime and gains and losses within a stream are important basic characteristics of streamflow. The lower Purgatoire River flows more than 160 river miles from Trinidad to the Arkansas River near Las Animas. A better knowledge of streamflow traveltime and streamflow gains and losses along the lower Purgatoire River would enable more informed management decisions about the availability of water supplies for irrigation use in southeastern Colorado. In 1994-95, the U.S.\x11Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Purgatoire River Water Conservancy District and the Arkansas River Compact Administration, evaluated streamflow traveltime and estimated streamflow gains and losses using historical surface-water records. Traveltime analyses were used along the lower Purgatoire River to determine when streamflows would arrive at selected downstream sites. The substantial effects of diversions for irrigation and unmeasured return flows in the most upstream reach of the river prevented the tracking of streamflow through reach\x111. Therefore, the estimation of streamflow traveltime for the 60.6 miles of river downstream from Trinidad could not be made.Hourly streamflow data from 1990 through 1994 were used to estimate traveltimes of more than 30 streamflow events for about 100 miles of the lower Purgatoire River. In the middle reach of the river, the traveltime of streamflow for the 40.1\x11miles ranged from about 11 to about 47\x11hours, and in the lower reach of the river, traveltime for the 58.5 miles ranged from about 6 to about 61 hours.Traveltime in the river reaches generally increased as streamflow decreased, but also varied for a specific streamflow in both reaches. Streamflow gains and losses were estimated using daily streamflow data at the upstream and downstream sites, available tributary inflow data, and daily diversion data. Differences between surface-water inflows and surface-water outflows in a reach determined the quantity of water gained or lost. In the most upstream reach of the river near Trinidad, difficulties in establishing streamflow traveltimes prevented the estimation of streamflow gains or losses. From 1984 through 1992, more than 2,900 daily estimates of streamflow gains or losses were made for the last 100\x11miles of the lower Purgatoire River that indicated daily gains and losses in streamflow were common during all four seasons of the year. Although some large daily streamflow gains and losses were computed, most daily estimates indicated small gains and losses in streamflow. The daily median streamflow gain or loss for the middle reach of the river was close to zero during every season, whereas median values for the lower most reach of the river indicated a daily gain in streamflow during every season.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Water-quality data and trends in the Rapid Creek Basin, South Dakota, 1970–2020

Surface-water-quality data in the Rapid Creek Basin in South Dakota were compiled to assess basic trends in the water quality of Rapid Creek. Spatial and temporal patterns in water quality were described for major ions, sediment, total suspended solids, nutrients, field measurements, bacteria, and select metals for the period of 1970–2020, and a water-quality trend analysis was completed for sites with enough data for selected constituents. Major ions and total suspended solids had higher median concentrations in the lower basin (downstream from the city of Rapid City) relative to the upper and middle basins. Nutrient concentrations were generally low, and increased concentrations were only detected at the sites downstream from the City of Rapid City Water Reclamation Facility. Fecal indicator bacteria ( Escherichia coli and fecal coliform) concentrations were highest downstream from the main urbanized area of Rapid City. Water-quality trends were analyzed for total dissolved solids, specific conductance, calcium, magnesium, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen for the period of 1979–2019. Concentrations for major ions and total dissolved solids typically changed by less than 15 percent. Total dissolved solids concentrations upstream from Rapid City were generally decreasing, whereas concentrations downstream were generally increasing. The flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total dissolved solids at three sites upstream from Rapid City decreased overall by 3–5 percent, and concentrations at two sites downstream from Rapid City increased by at least 7 percent between 1979 and 2019. Trends in specific conductance in the Rapid Creek Basin were mixed with alternating increasing and decreasing trends at many of the sites between 1979 and 2014. Total suspended solids concentrations were observed to be decreasing at two sites analyzed for trends. Concentrations in total phosphorus were observed to be decreasing at every site analyzed for trends between 1989 and 2014. Significant downward trends in total Kjeldahl nitrogen were observed at two sites in the lower Rapid Creek Basin for the trend period of 1999–2019. The decreases in total suspended solids and nutrient concentrations in the Rapid Creek Basin could be related to several processes such as the implementation of a stormwater management plan in Rapid City, improvements to the water reclamation facility downstream from Rapid City, and residual climatic effects.

South Dakota↗
USGS1993

A detailed taxonomy of Upper Cretaceous and lower Tertiary Crassatellidae in the eastern United States: An example of the nature of extinction at the boundary

Current theories on the causes of extinction at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary have been based on previously published data; however, few workers have stopped to ask the question, 'How good is the basic data set?' To test the accuracy of the published record, a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Crassatellidae (Mollusca, Bivalvia) of the Gulf and Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plains of the United States for the Upper Cretaceous and lower Tertiary was conducted. Thirty-eight species names and four generic names are used in publications for the Crassatellidae within the geographic and stratigraphic constraints of this analysis. Fourteen of the 38 species names are represented by statistically valid numbers of specimens and were tested by using canonical discriminant analysis. All 38 names, with the exception of 1 invalid name and 4 names for which no representative specimen could be located, were evaluated qualitatively. The results show that the published fossil record is highly inaccurate. Only 8 valid, recognizable species exist in the Crassatellidae within the limits of this study, 14 names are synonymized, and 11 names are represented by indeterminate molds or poorly preserved specimens. Three of the four genera are well founded; the fourth is based on the juvenile of another genus and therefore synonymized. This detailed taxonomic analysis of the Crassatellidae illustrates that the published fossil record is not reliable. Calculations of evolutionary and paleobiologic significance based on poorly defined, overly split fossil groups, such as the Crassatellidae, are biased in the following ways: Rates of evolution and extinction are higher, Faunal turnover at mass extinctions appears more catastrophic, Species diversity is high, Average species durations are shortened, and Geographic ranges are restricted. The data on the taxonomically standardized Crassatellidae show evolutionary rates one-quarter to one-half that of the published fossil record; faunal change at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary that was not catastrophic; a constant number of species on each side of the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary; a decrease in abundance in the Tertiary; and lower species diversity, longer average species durations, and expanded geographic ranges. Similar detailed taxonomic studies need to be conducted on other groups of organisms to test the patterns illustrated for the Crassatellidae and to determine the extent and direction of the bias in the published fossil record. Answers to our questions about evolutionary change cannot be found in the literature but rather with the fossils themselves. Evolution and extinction occur within small populations of species groups, and it is only through detailed analysis of these groups that we can achieve an understanding of the causes and effects of evolution and extinction.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2013

Digital database of the Holocene tephras of the Mono-Inyo Craters, California

This digital product comprises a collection of age and isopach data for the Holocene tephras of the Mono-Inyo Craters, California. Data on the most recent eruptions from this volcanic chain are relatively comprehensive, getting less so the further back in time. For the most recent eruptions to about 1,500 years ago, tephra beds within separate eruptive sequences have been studied and isopached. Before this, from about 2,000 years ago to about 5,000 years ago, there are insufficient data for isopaching. However, one isolated tephra of about 9,000 years ago was studied and isopached in detail. Regarding ages, there are many tens of radiocarbon ages that have been obtained on the Holocene Mono-Inyo volcanic products. The vast majority of these radiocarbon dates are associated with tephras at locales that can be considered distal (basically where the primary tephra is less than several centimeters (cm) thick). These dates represent carbon that was sequestered perhaps within several hundred years of the eruption but do not represent the ages of separate eruptive pulses. There are two reasons for this. In some cases, it is clear that the dated material is not associated with the eruption products. This is the case in some lake strata where carbon is either not physically close to a given tephra layer or where an age for a tephra layer was obtained by interpolation assuming a sedimentation rate. In other cases, it is not clear that a given tephra layer represents a primary tephra; in such cases the layer could instead be redeposited. At most distal localities (beyond about 5 kilometers (km) from the chain), there was no record made of whether tephra was primary or redeposited, and at these distances where tephra is thin, it is generally redeposited during later events such as fires or thunderstorms. These age data are not appropriate for use in dating the eruptive history of the volcanic chain, and are therefore not included in the present contribution. The carbon age data in the present contribution were obtained by careful consideration of the material being collected. In the best instances, carbon was collected from new growth on plants that were probably killed by an eruption event through burning and burial. Slightly poorer data were collected from burned and buried forest duff that is renewed frequently. Finally, some dates for older Holocene tephra layers at Black Lake, Nevada, downwind of the Mono-Inyo Craters, appear to allow correlation of the layers to proximal occurrences. In cases where these poorer data were collected but yielded ages statistically indistinguishable from better data, the poorer data were included in the analysis. In the most difficult cases, usually the furthest back in time, poorer data that were nevertheless statistically indistinguishable were weighted together to generate the age estimate. There are some known Holocene eruptions from the Mono-Inyo Craters that are not included in this tabulation, as so far a tephra has not been associated with the eruptions. A good example of this is the Java blocks. The Java block eruption, from a vent underlying the northwestern corner of Negit Island in Mono Lake, expelled numerous blocks that were rafted within the lake and that are mostly deposited on the southwestern and northern lakeshore. No tephra that can be correlated to this deposit has been found, and therefore the eruption is not included in this tabulation.

California↗
USGS2014

Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the two metrics of absolute mean error and root mean square error, using measured inputs of water temperature and nutrients. One of the main calibration tools for CE-QUAL-W2 model development was the vertical profile temperature data, available for all three lakes. For all three lakes, the absolute mean error and root mean square error were less than 1.0 degree Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, for the different depth ranges used for vertical profile comparisons. In Lake Carlos, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion. The reverse was true for the other two lakes, Elk Lake and Trout Lake, where the simulated results were slightly better for the hypolimnion than the epilimnion. The model also was used to approximate the location of the thermocline throughout the simulation periods, approximately April to November, in all three lake models. Deviations between the simulated and measured water temperatures in the vertical lake profile commonly were because of an offset in the timing of thermocline shifts rather than the simulated results missing thermocline shifts altogether.

Minnesota↗
USGS2006

Kendall-Theil Robust Line (KTRLine--version 1.0)-A Visual Basic Program for Calculating and Graphing Robust Nonparametric Estimates of Linear-Regression Coefficients Between Two Continuous Variables

The Kendall-Theil Robust Line software (KTRLine-version 1.0) is a Visual Basic program that may be used with the Microsoft Windows operating system to calculate parameters for robust, nonparametric estimates of linear-regression coefficients between two continuous variables. The KTRLine software was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, for use in stochastic data modeling with local, regional, and national hydrologic data sets to develop planning-level estimates of potential effects of highway runoff on the quality of receiving waters. The Kendall-Theil robust line was selected because this robust nonparametric method is resistant to the effects of outliers and nonnormality in residuals that commonly characterize hydrologic data sets. The slope of the line is calculated as the median of all possible pairwise slopes between points. The intercept is calculated so that the line will run through the median of input data. A single-line model or a multisegment model may be specified. The program was developed to provide regression equations with an error component for stochastic data generation because nonparametric multisegment regression tools are not available with the software that is commonly used to develop regression models. The Kendall-Theil robust line is a median line and, therefore, may underestimate total mass, volume, or loads unless the error component or a bias correction factor is incorporated into the estimate. Regression statistics such as the median error, the median absolute deviation, the prediction error sum of squares, the root mean square error, the confidence interval for the slope, and the bias correction factor for median estimates are calculated by use of nonparametric methods. These statistics, however, may be used to formulate estimates of mass, volume, or total loads. The program is used to read a two- or three-column tab-delimited input file with variable names in the first row and data in subsequent rows. The user may choose the columns that contain the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variable. A third column, if present, may contain metadata such as the sample-collection location and date. The program screens the input files and plots the data. The KTRLine software is a graphical tool that facilitates development of regression models by use of graphs of the regression line with data, the regression residuals (with X or Y), and percentile plots of the cumulative frequency of the X variable, Y variable, and the regression residuals. The user may individually transform the independent and dependent variables to reduce heteroscedasticity and to linearize data. The program plots the data and the regression line. The program also prints model specifications and regression statistics to the screen. The user may save and print the regression results. The program can accept data sets that contain up to about 15,000 XY data points, but because the program must sort the array of all pairwise slopes, the program may be perceptibly slow with data sets that contain more than about 1,000 points.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS1974

Seismic hazards and land-use planning

Basic earth-science data are necessary for a realistic assessment of seismic hazards and as a basis for limiting corrective land-use controls only to those areas of greatest hazard. For example, the location, character, and amount of likely displacement and activity of surface faulting can be predicted if detailed geologic maps and seismic data are available and are augmented by field studies at critical localities. Because few structures can withstand displacement of their foundations, they should be located off active fault traces, the distance varying with the character of faulting, the certainty with which fault traces are known, and the importance of the structure. Recreational activities and other nonoccupancy land uses should be considered for fault zone areas where land is under pressure for development; elsewhere, such areas should remain as open space. Two methods of predicting ground shaking effects have applications to land-use decisions: (1) Relative earthquake effects can be related to firmness of the ground and can be used in a gross way to allocate population density in the absence of more sophisticated analyses; and (2) intensity maps, based on, (a) damage from former earthquakes, or (b) a qualitative analyses of geologic units added to a design earthquake, can be helpful both for general and specific plans. Theoretical models are used with caution to predict ground motion for critical structures to be located at specific sites with unique foundation conditions. Fully adequate methods of assessing possible shaking remain to be developed. Where land-use decisions do not reflect likely ground shaking effects, stringent building codes are needed, particularly for important structures. Ground failure (landsliding, ground cracking and lurching, differential settlement, sand boils, and subsidence) commonly results from liquefaction, loss of soil strength, or compaction. Areas suspected of being most likely to fail should not be developed unless detailed site studies can demonstrate the hazard does not exist or can be overcome. Various methods can be used to reduce the high, long-term public costs that follow development of unstable ground. However, areas subject to tectonic deformation generally cannot be predicted nor can effects of such deformation be minimized. Large water waves, such as produced by tsunamis, seiches, and dam failure or overtopping, can be anticipated in many places. Their effects can be lessened by land-use regulations similar to flood-plain zoning, restrictions on location of critical structures, and appropriate warning systems. Many local, state, and federal government agencies, universities, and private consultants may be able to assist planners by advising them of pertinent data and where those data can be obtained. Interpretation of the data for an evaluation of seismic risk commonly requires a team of planners, geologists, and soil and structural engineers.

Circular↗
USGS1947

Major winter and nonwinter floods in selected basins in New York and Pennsylvania

The scientific design of flood-control works is based on an evaluation of the hydrologic factors basic to flood events, particularly how rainfall and snow runoff, soil conditions, and channel influences can combine to produce greater or lesser floods. For this purpose an analysis of the pertinent hydrologic data is needed. The methods of analysis adopted should conform as closely as possible to those already in use and must be adapted to the quality of the available information. Maximum floods in 8 basins in New York and Pennsylvania during the winter and nonwinter months were studied, a total of 21 floods. The most outstanding winter flood of record in the North Atlantic region was that of March 1936. Rainfall plus snow melt in the basins studied ranged between 3.04 and 6.87 inches, and associated volumes of direct runoff from 1.88 to 5.63 inches. Winter floods have a common characteristic in their relation to freezing temperature. The antecedent periods, representing a period of snow accumulation and frost penetration, are below freezing, and the flood itself is contemporaneous with a period of above-freezing temperatures, usually associated with rain, during which the previously accumulated snow is melted. A second common characteristic of major winter floods is their tendency to be associated with widespread causal meteorologic conditions. There was a more complete conversion of rainfall and snow melt into runoff during the winter storms studied than during the wettest nonwinter flood. Snow melt during winter floods ranged from 0.04 to 0.07 inch per degree-day above 32° F. The depth of mean areal rainfall produced by the nonwinter storms studied ranged from 3.05 to 4.96 inches. The maximum 24-hour quantity at single stations was 14 inches, which was measured during the storm of July 1935 in New York. The volume of direct runoff ranged between 1.39 and 3.41 inches. The portion of rainfall that was converted into runoff varied in accordance with the rate of antecedent base flow, expressed in second-feet per square mile, and emphasized the influence of antecedent conditions. The average volume of direct runoff during winter floods was 4.24 inches, and the average during nonwinter floods was 2.44 inches. The latter, however, were more concentrated as to time, tending to compensate for large volume of runoff in winter, so that the crest rates of direct runoff averaged 0.056 inches per hour during the winter and 0.051 inches during the nonwinter period.

New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS1994

High-resolution single-channel seismic reflection surveys of Orange Lake and other selected sites of north central Florida

The potential fluid exchange between lakes of north central Florida and the Floridan aquifer and the process by which exchange occurs is of critical concern to the St. Johns Water Management District. High-resolution seismic tools with relatively new digital technology were utilized in collecting geophysical data from Orange, Kingsley, Lowry and Magnolia Lakes, and the Drayton Island area of St. Johns River. The data collected shows the application of these techniques in understanding the formation of individual lakes, thus aiding in the management of these natural resources by identifying breaches or areas where the confining units are thin or absent between the water bodies and the Floridan aquifer. Orange Lake, the primary focus of the study, is a shallow flooded plain that was formed essentially as an erosional depression in the clayey Hawthorn formation. The primary karstic features identified in the lake were cover subsidence, cover collapse and buried sinkholes structures in various sizes and stages of development. Orange Lake was divided into three areas southeast, southwest, and north-central. Karst features within the southeast area of Orange Lake are mostly cover subsidence sinkholes and associated features. Many of the subsidence features found are grouped together to form larger composite sinkholes, some greater than 400 m in diameter. The size of these composite sinkholes and the number of buried subsidence sinkholes distinguish the southeast area from the others. The potential of lake waters leaking to the aquifer in the southeast area is probably controlled by the permeability of the cover sediments or by fractures that penetrate the lake floor. The lake bottom and subsurface of the north-central areas are relatively subsidence sinkholes that have no cover sediments overlying them, implying that the sinks have been actively subsiding with some seepage into the aquifer from the lake in this area due to the possible presence of the active subsidence and faulting. The largest and most important features in the lake are the collapse sinkholes found along the southwestern shore that provide conduits for exchange between the lake and subsurface aquifer. There are two basic differences between the southwest and other areas of the lake: (1) the features found towards the central part of the lake are smaller in scale (1to 10 m across) and tend to be singular structures compare to the southwest area where features combined to form larger sinkholes (>400 m), and; (2) the southwest area is the only site where collapse dolines were identified. These dolines are located along the southwestern shoreline adjacent to Heagy-Burry Park. The comparison of seismic profiles from the several other selected lake and river sites to the Orange Lake profiles showed that other study areas were constructed of one or two large subsidences or a combination of sinkholes to form one large sinkhole. Aside from the difference in scale the basic characteristics of the subsidence sinkholes were similar.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Estimated water use and availability in the East Narragansett Bay study area, Rhode Island, 1995-99

Water availability became a concern in Rhode Island during a drought in 1999, and further investigation was needed to assess the current demands on the hydrologic system from withdrawals during periods of little to no precipitation. The low ground-water levels and streamflows measured in Rhode Island prompted initiation of a series of studies on water use and availability in each major drainage area in Rhode Island for the period 1995–99. The investigation of the East Narragansett Bay area is the last of these studies. The East Narragansett Bay study area (130.9 square miles) includes small sections of the Ten Mile and Westport River Basins in Rhode Island. The area was divided into three regions (islands and contiguous land areas separated by the bay) within each of which the freshwater water use and availability were assessed. During the study period from 1995 through 1999, three major public water suppliers in the study area withdrew 7.601 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) from ground-water and surface-water reservoirs. The estimated water withdrawals by minor public water suppliers during the study period were 0.063 Mgal/d. Total self-supply domestic, industrial, commercial, and agricultural withdrawals from the study area averaged 1.891 Mgal/d. Total water use in the study area averaged 16.48 Mgal/d, of which about 8.750 Mgal/d was imported from other basins. The average return flow to freshwater within the basin was 2.591 Mgal/d, which included effluent from permitted facilities and septic systems. The average return flow to saltwater (Narragansett Bay) outside of the basin was about 45.21 Mgal/d and included discharges by permitted facilities (wastewater-treatment plants and Rhode Island Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems). The PART program, a computerized hydrographseparation application, was used for the data collected at two selected index stream-gaging stations in the East Narragansett Bay study area to determine water availability on the basis of the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles of the total base flow; the base flow for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario; and the base flow for the Aquatic Base Flow scenario for both stations. Base flows in the study area were lowest in September for the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles. The safe yields determined for the surface-water reservoirs (14.10 Mgal/d) were added to the estimated available ground water (gross yield) in the Southeastern Narragansett and East Narragansett Islands regions to give the total available water. The water availability in the study area at the 50th percentile ranged from 33.18 Mgal/d in September to 94.62 Mgal/d in June, water availability for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario at the 50th percentile ranged from 21.87 Mgal/d in September to 83.03 Mgal/d in June, and water availability for the Aquatic Base Flow scenario at the 50th percentile ranged from 14.10 Mgal/d in August and September to 65.48 Mgal/d in June. Because water withdrawals and use are greater during the summer than at other times of the year, water availability in June, July, August, and September was compared to water withdrawals in the three regions. For the study period, the withdrawals in July were higher than in the other summer months. For the 50th percentile, the ratios of water withdrawn to water available were close to one in August for the estimated basic and Aquatic Base Flow scenarios and in September for the estimated 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario. For the 25th percentile, the ratios were close to one in August for the estimated basic and for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario, and were close to one in July for the estimated Aquatic Base Flow scenario. A long-term water budget was calculated for the East Narragansett Bay study area to identify and assess inflows and outflows by region. The water withdrawals and return flows used in the budget were from 1995 through 1999. Total inflow and outflow were calculated separately for each region. Inflow was assumed to equal outflow; the total water budget was 292.1 Mgal/d for the study area. Precipitation and return flow were 99 and less than 1 percent of the total estimated inflow to the study area, respectively. Evapotranspiration, streamflow, and water withdrawals were 47, 49, and 3 percent of the total outflow from the study area, respectively.

Rhode Island↗
USGS1995

U.S. Geological Survey Subsidence Interest Group conference, Edwards Air Force Base, Antelope Valley, California, November 18-19, 1992; Abstracts and summary

Land subsidence, the loss of surface elevation as a result of the removal of subsurface support, affects every state in the United States. More than 17,000 mi 2 of land in the United States has been lowered by the various processes that produce land subsidence with annual costs from resulting flooding and structural damage that exceed $125 million. It is estimated that an additional $400 million is spent nationwide in attempts to control subsidence. Common causes of land subsidence include the removal of oil, gas, and water from underground reservoirs; dissolution of limestone aquifers (sinkholes); underground mining activities; drainage of organic soils; and hydrocompaction (the initial wetting of dry soils). Overdrafting of aquifers is the major cause of areally extensive land subsidence, and as ground-water pumping increases, land subsidence also will increase. Land subsidence and its effects on engineering structures have been recognized for centuries, but it was not until this century that the processes that produce land subsidence were identified and understood. In 1928, while working with field data from a test of the Dakota Sandstone aquifer, O.E. Meinzer of the U.S. Geological Survey recognized the compressibility of aquifers. Around the same time, Karl Terzaghi, a soil scientist working at Harvard University, developed the one-dimensional consolidation theory that provided a quantitative means of predicting soil compaction resulting from the drainage of compressible soils. Thus, with the recognition of the compressibility of aquifers (Meinzer), and the development of a quantitative means of predicting soil compaction as a consequence of the reduction of intergranular pore pressure (Terzaghi), the theory of aquifer-system compaction was formed. With the widespread availability of electric power in rural areas, and the advent of the deep turbine pump, ground-water withdrawals increased dramatically throughout the country in the 1940's and 1950's. Along with this unprecedented increase in pumpage, substantial amounts of land subsidence were observed in several areas of the United States, most notably in Arizona, California, and Texas. Beginning in 1955, under the direction of Joseph Poland, the Geological Survey began the "Mechanics of Aquifers Project," which focused largely on the processes that resulted in land subsidence due to the withdrawal of ground water. This research team gained international renown as they advanced the scientific understanding of aquifer mechanics and land-subsidence theory. The results of field studies by members of this research group not only verified the validity of the application of Terzaghi's consolidation theory to compressible aquifers, but they also provided definitions, methods of quantification, and confirmation of the interrelation among hydraulic head declines, aquifer-system compaction, and land subsidence. In addition to conducting pioneering research, this group also formed a "center of expertise," providing a focal point within the Geological Survey for the dissemination of technology and scientific understanding in aquifer mechanics. However, when the "Mechanics of Aquifers Project" was phased out in 1984, the focal point for technology transfer no longer existed. Interest among various state and local agencies in land subsidence has persisted, and the Geological Survey has continued to participate in a broad spectrum of cooperative and Federally funded projects in aquifer mechanics and land subsidence. These projects are designed to identify and monitor areas with the potential for land subsidence, to conduct basic research in the processes that control land subsidence and the development of earth fissures, as well as to develop new quantitative tools to predict aquifer-system deformation. In 1989 an ad hoc "Aquifer Mechanics and Subsidence Interest Group" (referred to herein as the "Subsidence Interest Group") was formed

California↗
USGS2002

Crustal structure of the coastal and marine San Francisco Bay region, California

As of the time of this writing, the San Francisco Bay region is home to about 6.8 million people, ranking fifth among population centers in the United States. Most of these people live on the coastal lands along San Francisco Bay, the Sacramento River delta, and the Pacific coast. The region straddles the tectonic boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates and is crossed by several strands of the San Andreas Fault system. These faults, which are stressed by about 4 cm of relative plate motion each year, pose an obvious seismic hazard. We have many ways to study earthquake faults. Where faults break the land surface, we may learn valuable information needed for hazard assessment, such as cumulative offset, slip rate, and earthquake history. However, many of the major faults in the region are partly submerged beneath San Francisco and Monterey Bays. Although this situation poses problems in gathering observational data for hazard assessment, bay-region waterways provide an opportunity to study faultzone structure by using marine subsurface-imaging techniques, which are easier and cheaper than equivalent studies on land. In 1993, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) launched a 5-year project aimed at unearthing the basic science of the submerged San Andreas strike-slip fault system in the San Francisco Bay region with its many interacting strands. Primary project goals were structural, such as to discover how the San Andreas and Hayward Faults are connected or related at depth, to learn how the complex of faults in the San Andreas stepover zone on the Golden Gate platform functions, and to locate previously unknown faults. This volume thus contains mostly structural information about the San Francisco Bay region, much of it gathered through exploratory geophysical experiments. The volume is organized “top down,” from studies in the shallowest crust to the base of the crust. The first three chapters are linked through their use of novel geophysical techniques to study earthquake effects, coseismic slip, and shallow stratigraphy. Kayen and others examine crustal structure at very high resolution and demonstrate the use of ground-penetrating-radar tomography to measure the liquefaction potential of coastal sedimentary deposits. McGann and others use microfossils from drill cores along the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge to determine a more detailed late Pleistocene stratigraphy of San Francisco Bay than was previously available. Geist and Zoback use the historical record of a small local tsunami generated by the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake to model the rupture process of that earthquake. The last four chapters are dedicated to studies of fault related structure of the seismogenic crust in and around the San Andreas Fault system in the San Francisco Bay region. Jachens and others compile an aeromagnetic anomaly map from new high-resolution flights across the bay region. Some of these anomalies mark the positions of offshore faults, and others are offset by faults, providing constraints on cumulative slip. Hart and others concisely summarize the marine seismic data recorded in and around San Francisco Bay, map the coverage, and provide archival information for those interested in acquiring data. The last two chapters present the results of the seismic data that have been analyzed. Bruns and others present their analysis of high-quality intermediate-resolution (~5-km penetration) seismic-reflection data gathered over the complex San Andreas-San Gregorio Fault junction. This junction, which is thought to be where the 1906 San Francisco earthquake originated (see Geist and Zoback, this volume), contains an apparent extensional right stepover in the San Andreas Fault. Finally, Parsons and others review and summarize the results of deep-crustal seismic-reflection experiments and local-earthquake tomographic studies, including previously unpublished data, and provide additional support and discussion for already-published studies. In summary, these studies were carried out in an environment where background information on faults in the San Francisco Bay region was sought. Much of the structural information presented here comes from experiments of a style unlikely to be conducted by the USGS in the near future. Together, the chapters in this volume provide a structural framework for a major part of a complex strike-slip fault system.

California↗