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Interactions between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics in the response of Alaska ecosystems to fire disturbance

Soil temperature and moisture are important factors that control many ecosystem processes. However, interactions between soil thermal and hydrological processes are not adequately understood in cold regions, where the frozen soil, fire disturbance, and soil drainage play important roles in controlling interactions among these processes. These interactions were investigated with a new ecosystem model framework, the dynamic organic soil version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, that incorporates an efficient and stable numerical scheme for simulating soil thermal and hydrological dynamics within soil profiles that contain a live moss horizon, fibrous and amorphous organic horizons, and mineral soil horizons. The performance of the model was evaluated for a tundra burn site that had both preburn and postburn measurements, two black spruce fire chronosequences (representing space-for-time substitutions in well and intermediately drained conditions), and a poorly drained black spruce site. Although space-for-time substitutions present challenges in model-data comparison, the model demonstrates substantial ability in simulating the dynamics of evapotranspiration, soil temperature, active layer depth, soil moisture, and water table depth in response to both climate variability and fire disturbance. Several differences between model simulations and field measurements identified key challenges for evaluating/improving model performance that include (1) proper representation of discrepancies between air temperature and ground surface temperature; (2) minimization of precipitation biases in the driving data sets; (3) improvement of the measurement accuracy of soil moisture in surface organic horizons; and (4) proper specification of organic horizon depth/properties, and soil thermal conductivity.

Alaska↗

Physical setting: Chapter 1 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

Lisbon Bottom consists of approximately 875 ha of river bottom along the Missouri River in Howard County, Missouri, from approximately river mile (RM) 213 to RM 219. As used in this report, the Lisbon Bottom area also includes the main channel of the Missouri River adjacent to the Lisbon Bottom and portions of the adjacent flood plain in Saline County, Missouri. Before regulation and structuring of the Missouri River, riverine areas like Lisbon Bottom were shifting mosaics of dynamic habitat patches that were created and maintained by hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Flow regulation, navigation structures, and bank-stabilization projects isolated Lisbon Bottom from the river by decreasing the magnitude and frequency with which hydrologic and geomorphic processes could alter habitat characteristics. The flood of 1993 breached agricultural levees around Lisbon Bottom, thereby reestablishing a connection to the Missouri River. Although still affected by flow regulation and the requirement to maintain navigation in the main channel, Lisbon Bottom presents the opportunity to study ecosystem processes and dynamic geomorphology in a setting that more closely mimics the natural riverine system than any other site on the navigable Lower Missouri River. The purpose of this chapter is to describe the physical setting and processes that structure the riverine ecosystem of Lisbon Bottom and similar areas of the Lower Missouri River. The description compiles available information on temporal and spatial changes at the site, including the history of channel changes and hydrology.

Missouri↗

A hydrologic landscapes perspective on groundwater connectivity of depressional wetlands

Research into processes governing the hydrologic connectivity of depressional wetlands has advanced rapidly in recent years. Nevertheless, a need persists for broadly applicable, non-site-specific guidance to facilitate further research. Here, we explicitly use the hydrologic landscapes theoretical framework to develop broadly applicable conceptual knowledge of depressional-wetland hydrologic connectivity. We used a numerical model to simulate the groundwater flow through five generic hydrologic landscapes. Next, we inserted depressional wetlands into the generic landscapes and repeated the modeling exercise. The results strongly characterize groundwater connectivity from uplands to lowlands as being predominantly indirect. Groundwater flowed from uplands and most of it was discharged to the surface at a concave-upward break in slope, possibly continuing as surface water to lowlands. Additionally, we found that groundwater connectivity of the depressional wetlands was primarily determined by the slope of the adjacent water table. However, we identified certain arrangements of landforms that caused the water table to fall sharply and not follow the surface contour. Finally, we synthesize our findings and provide guidance to practitioners and resource managers regarding the management significance of indirect groundwater discharge and the effect of depressional wetland groundwater connectivity on pond permanence and connectivity.

Water↗

Comparison of simulations of land-use specific water demand and irrigation water supply by MF-FMP and IWFM

Two hydrologic models, MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) and the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), are compared with respect to each model’s capabilities of simulating land-use hydrologic processes, surface-water routing, and groundwater flow. Of major concern among the land-use processes was the consumption of water through evaporation and transpiration by plants. The comparison of MF-FMP and IWFM was conducted and completed using a realistic hypothetical case study. Both models simulate the water demand for water-accounting units resulting from evapotranspiration and inefficiency losses and, for irrigated units, the supply from surface-water deliveries and groundwater pumpage. The MF-FMP simulates reductions in evapotranspiration owing to anoxia and wilting, and separately considers land-use-related evaporation and transpiration; IWFM simulates reductions in evapotranspiration related to the depletion of soil moisture. The models simulate inefficiency losses from precipitation and irrigation water applications to runoff and deep percolation differently. MF-FMP calculates the crop irrigation requirement and total farm delivery requirement, and then subtracts inefficiency losses from runoff and deep percolation. In IWFM, inefficiency losses to surface runoff from irrigation and precipitation are computed and subtracted from the total irrigation and precipitation before the crop irrigation requirement is estimated. Inefficiency losses in terms of deep percolation are computed simultaneously with the crop irrigation requirement. The seepage from streamflow routing also is computed differently and can affect certain hydrologic settings and magnitudes ofstreamflow infiltration. MF-FMP assumes steady-state conditions in the root zone; therefore, changes in soil moisture within the root zone are not calculated. IWFM simulates changes in the root zone in both irrigated and non-irrigated natural vegetation. Changes in soil moisture are more significant for non-irrigated natural vegetation areas than in the irrigated areas. Therefore, to facilitate the comparison of models, the changes in soil moisture are only simulated by IWFM for the natural vegetation areas, and soil-moisture parameters in irrigated regions in IWFM were specified at constant values . The IWFM total simulated changes in soil moisture that are related to natural vegetation areas vary from stress period to stress period but are small over the entire two-year period of simulation. In the hypothetical case study, IWFM simulates more evapotranspiration and return flows and less streamflow infiltration than MF-FMP. This causes more simulated surface-water diversions upstream and less simulated water available to downstream farms in IWFM compared to MF-FMP. The evapotranspiration simulated by the two models is well correlated even though the quantity is different. The different approaches used to simulate soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and inefficient losses yield different results for deep percolation and pumpage. In IWFM, deep percolation is a function of soil moisture; therefore, the constant soil-moisture requirement for irrigated regions, assumed for this comparison, results in a constant deep percolation rate. This led to poor correlation with the variable deep percolation rates simulated in MF-FMP, where the deep percolation rate, a fraction of inefficiency losses from precipitation and irrigation, is a function of quasi-steady state infiltration for each soil type and a function of groundwater head. Similarly, the larger simulated evapotranspiration in IWFM is mainly responsible for larger simulated groundwater pumpage demands and related lower groundwater levels in IWFM compared to MF-FMP. Because of the differences in features between MF-FMP and IWFM, the user may find that for certain hydrologic settings one model is better suited than the other. The performance of MF-FMP and IWFM in this particular hypothetical test case, with a fixed framework composed of common initial and boundary conditions and input parameter values, does not necessarily predict the performance of MF-FMP and IWFM in a real-world situation with variable framework and parameter values. These differences may affect the evaluation of policies, projects, or water-balance analysis for some hydrologic settings. Generally, both models are powerful tools that simulate a connected system of aquifer, stream networks, land surface, root zone, and runoff processes. MF-FMP simulated the hypothetical test case in about 4 minutes compared to about 58 minutes for IWFM.

Technical Information Record↗

Hydrological effects of the increased CO 2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

Increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO 2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO 2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO 2 based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO 2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO 2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO 2 concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.

Mississippi River Basin↗

Bridging ecology and geosciences in riverscapes: Implications for process-based restoration

There has been a growing interest in integrating geological and ecological processes for sustainable river management and restoration. Lotic systems are shaped by diverse physical processes, including geology, geomorphology, hydrology, and interactions with terrestrial processes. However, restoration practices often prioritize specific habitats or river forms without fully considering the underlying physical processes that support biological communities and ecosystem functions. In this paper, we synthesize studies that integrally examine geological and ecological processes across different scales and components of riverscapes, including geohydrological processes, which have been less investigated in riverscape studies. We begin by examining processes at broader spatial scales, including river–watershed and river–riparian interactions, and gradually narrow our focus to the dynamics that occur among habitats within river channels, through which we highlight the significance of conceptualizing rivers as dynamic “networks” rather than linear features. Finally, we identify both scientific and practical challenges that can be addressed to bridge the gap between basic-science implications and their implementation in riverscape restorations.

Ecological Research↗

Development of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Determining Environmental Flows for New Jersey Streams

The natural flow regime paradigm and parallel stream ecological concepts and theories have established the benefits of maintaining or restoring the full range of natural hydrologic variation for physiochemical processes, biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian communities. A synthesis of recent advances in hydroecological research coupled with stream classification has resulted in a new process to determine environmental flows and assess hydrologic alteration. This process has national and international applicability. It allows classification of streams into hydrologic stream classes and identification of a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 10 critical sub-components of flow. Three computer programs have been developed for implementing the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP): (1) the Hydrologic Indices Tool (HIT), which calculates 171 ecologically relevant hydrologic indices on the basis of daily-flow and peak-flow stream-gage data; (2) the New Jersey Hydrologic Assessment Tool (NJHAT), which can be used to establish a hydrologic baseline period, provide options for setting baseline environmental-flow standards, and compare past and proposed streamflow alterations; and (3) the New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT), designed for placing unclassified streams into pre-defined stream classes. Biological and multivariate response models including principal-component, cluster, and discriminant-function analyses aided in the development of software and implementation of the HIP for New Jersey. A pilot effort is currently underway by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in which the HIP is being used to evaluate the effects of past and proposed surface-water use, ground-water extraction, and land-use changes on stream ecosystems while determining the most effective way to integrate the process into ongoing regulatory programs. Ultimately, this scientifically defensible process will help to quantify the effects of anthropogenic changes and development on hydrologic variability and help planners and resource managers balance current and future water requirements with ecological needs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Signatures of hydrologic function across the critical zone observatory network

Despite a multitude of small catchment studies, we lack a deep understanding of how variations in critical zone architecture lead to variations in hydrologic states and fluxes. This study characterizes hydrologic dynamics of 15 catchments of the U.S. Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) network where we hypothesized that our understanding of subsurface structure would illuminate patterns of hydrologic partitioning. The CZOs collect data sets that characterize the physical, chemical, and biological architecture of the subsurface, while also monitoring hydrologic fluxes such as streamflow, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For the first time, we collate time series of hydrologic variables across the CZO network and begin the process of examining hydrologic signatures across sites. We find that catchments with low baseflow indices and high runoff sensitivity to storage receive most of their precipitation as rain and contain clay‐rich regolith profiles, prominent argillic horizons, and/or anthropogenic modifications. In contrast, sites with high baseflow indices and low runoff sensitivity to storage receive the majority of precipitation as snow and have more permeable regolith profiles. The seasonal variability of water balance components is a key control on the dynamic range of hydraulically connected water in the critical zone. These findings lead us to posit that water balance partitioning and streamflow hydraulics are linked through the coevolution of critical zone architecture but that much work remains to parse these controls out quantitatively.

Water Resources Research↗

US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY'S NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR PROCESSING AND DISTRIBUTION OF NEAR REAL-TIME HYDROLOGICAL DATA.

The US Geological Survey is utilizing a national network of more than 1000 satellite data-collection stations, four satellite-relay direct-readout ground stations, and more than 50 computers linked together in a private telecommunications network to acquire, process, and distribute hydrological data in near real-time. The four Survey offices operating a satellite direct-readout ground station provide near real-time hydrological data to computers located in other Survey offices through the Survey's Distributed Information System. The computerized distribution system permits automated data processing and distribution to be carried out in a timely manner under the control and operation of the Survey office responsible for the data-collection stations and for the dissemination of hydrological information to the water-data users.

Conference Paper↗

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Evaluation of Pleistocene groundwater flow through fractured tuffs using a U-series disequilibrium approach, Pahute Mesa, Nevada, USA

Groundwater flow through fractured felsic tuffs and lavas at the Nevada National Security Site represents the most likely mechanism for transport of radionuclides away from underground nuclear tests at Pahute Mesa. To help evaluate fracture flow and matrix–water exchange, we have determined U-series isotopic compositions on more than 40 drill core samples from 5 boreholes that represent discrete fracture surfaces, breccia zones, and interiors of unfractured core. The U-series approach relies on the disruption of radioactive secular equilibrium between isotopes in the uranium-series decay chain due to preferential mobilization of 234 U relative to 238 U, and U relative to Th. Samples from discrete fractures were obtained by milling fracture surfaces containing thin secondary mineral coatings of clays, silica, Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides, and zeolite. Intact core interiors and breccia fragments were sampled in bulk. In addition, profiles of rock matrix extending 15 to 44 mm away from several fractures that show evidence of recent flow were analyzed to investigate the extent of fracture/matrix water exchange. Samples of rock matrix have 234 U/ 238 U and 230 Th/ 238 U activity ratios (AR) closest to radioactive secular equilibrium indicating only small amounts of groundwater penetrated unfractured matrix. Greater U mobility was observed in welded-tuff matrix with elevated porosity and in zeolitized bedded tuff. Samples of brecciated core were also in secular equilibrium implying a lack of long-range hydraulic connectivity in these cases. Samples of discrete fracture surfaces typically, but not always, were in radioactive disequilibrium. Many fractures had isotopic compositions plotting near the 230 Th- 234 U 1:1 line indicating a steady-state balance between U input and removal along with radioactive decay. Numerical simulations of U-series isotope evolution indicate that 0.5 to 1 million years are required to reach steady-state compositions. Once attained, disequilibrium 234 U/ 238 U and 230 Th/ 238 U AR values can be maintained indefinitely as long as hydrological and geochemical processes remain stable. Therefore, many Pahute Mesa fractures represent stable hydrologic pathways over million-year timescales. A smaller number of samples have non-steady-state compositions indicating transient conditions in the last several hundred thousand years. In these cases, U mobility is dominated by overall gains rather than losses of U.

Nevada↗

Developing hydro-meteorological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and early warning

Consistent relations between shallow landslide initiation and associated rainfall characteristics remain difficult to identify, due largely to the complex hydrological and geological processes causing slopes to be predisposed to failure and those processes that subsequently trigger failures. Considering the importance of hillslope hydrology for rainfall-induced landsliding, we develop and test a method for identifying hybrid hydro-meteorological thresholds to assess landslide initiation potential. We outline a series of steps for using a landslide inventory in combination with triggering rainfall and antecedent wetness to identify empirical thresholds that can inform landslide early warning systems. The method is semi-automated but remains flexible enough to allow threshold developers to consider data inputs and various performance metrics with different priorities for balancing failed versus false alarms. We demonstrate the utility of our approach for two monitoring sites near Seattle, Washington and in Portland, Oregon, USA, to develop daily bilinear thresholds within a two-dimensional parameter space, which rely on accurate 24 h forecasts, measured recent rainfall and in situ soil saturation. Although there were no prior landslide thresholds for Portland, our new hybrid threshold for the Seattle area outperforms established rainfall-only thresholds for the same region. Introducing subsurface hydrologic monitoring into landslide initiation thresholds has the potential to greatly improve early warning capabilities and help reduce losses.

Oregon, Washington↗

Integrated water flow model and modflow-farm process: A comparison of theory, approaches, and features of two integrated hydrologic models

Effective modeling of conjunctive use of surface and subsurface water resources requires simulation of land use-based root zone and surface flow processes as well as groundwater flows, streamflows, and their interactions. Recently, two computer models developed for this purpose, the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) from the California Department of Water Resources and the MODFLOW with Farm Process (MF-FMP) from the US Geological Survey, have been applied to complex basins such as the Central Valley of California. As both IWFM and MFFMP are publicly available for download and can be applied to other basins, there is a need to objectively compare the main approaches and features used in both models. This paper compares the concepts, as well as the method and simulation features of each hydrologic model pertaining to groundwater, surface water, and landscape processes. The comparison is focused on the integrated simulation of water demand and supply, water use, and the flow between coupled hydrologic processes. The differences in the capabilities and features of these two models could affect the outcome and types of water resource problems that can be simulated.

California Natural Resources Agency↗

Yucaipa valley integrated hydrological model

Introduction The hydrologic system in the Yucaipa Valley watershed (YVW) was simulated using the coupled Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW; Markstrom and others, 2008). This study uses version 2.0 of GSFLOW, which is a combination of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Markstrom and others, 2015), and the Newton-Raphson formulation of the Modular Groundwater-Flow Model (MODFLOW-NWT; hereafter referred to as MODFLOW; Harbaugh, 2005; Niswonger and others, 2011). GSFLOW partitions the hydrologic system into three regions (fig. B1) that are linked by the exchange of unsaturated and saturated groundwater and surface water. The properties and processes within each region influence the flow of both groundwater and surface water into, out of, and within each region. The PRMS component of GSFLOW simulates Region 1, and the MODFLOW component simulates Regions 2 and 3. In the YVW, GSFLOW was applied as the simulation code and is referred to herein as the Yucaipa Integrated Hydrologic Model (YIHM; Alzraiee and others, 2022). In the YIHM, Region 1 includes the plant canopy, snowpack, and the soil zone; Region 2 includes the stream network; and Region 3 includes the subsurface beneath Regions 1 and 2 and consists of both the saturated and unsaturated zones. Soil-moisture conditions and head relations control the flow of both groundwater and surface water between regions. The maximum lateral extents of Regions 1 and 3 were defined using the surface-water drainage divides described in the “Description of Study Area” section of chapter A of this report. The boundaries for Region 2 are the lowest elevation of the streambeds, the stream channel widths, and the horizontal extent of the stream channels in the YVW. Flow across the unsaturated part of Region 3 is assumed to be vertical and does not cross the lateral boundary. To simulate hydrologic processes occurring within the YVW using GSFLOW, a model domain was defined to match the surface watershed such that the domain includes each surficial hydrologic unit coinciding (at least partially) with the Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (hereafter referred to as “Yucaipa subbasin”) as defined in California Bulletin 118 (California Department of Water Resources, 2016). The resulting simulated domain (fig. B2) includes the Yucaipa subbasin and intersects partially with parts of the San Bernardino and San Timoteo groundwater subbasins (fig. B2). The area of the active model domain in YIHM is about 121 square miles (mi2). The developed YIHM can be used to improve understanding of the hydrologic processes in YVW and to simulate future management scenarios with different climatic and anthropogenic changes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Spatial stream network modeling of water temperature within the White River Basin, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

Water temperature is a primary control on the occurrence and distribution of fish and other ectothermic aquatic species. In the Pacific Northwest, cold-water species such as Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) have specific temperature requirements during different life stages that must be met to ensure the viability of their populations. Rivers draining Mount Rainier in western Washington, including the White River along its northern flank, support a number of cold-water fish populations, but the spatial distribution of water temperatures, particularly during late-summer baseflow during August and September, and the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes regulating it are not well constrained. Spatial stream network (SSN) models, which are generalized linear models that incorporate streamwise spatial autocovariance structures, were fit to mean and 7-day average daily maximum water temperature for August and September for the White River Basin. The SSN models were calibrated using water temperature measurements collected in 2010 through 2020. The extent of the models included the White River and its tributaries upstream from its confluence with Silver Creek in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. SSN models incorporated covariates hypothesized to represent the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes that influence water temperature. SSN models were fit to the measured data and compared to generalized linear models that lacked spatial autocovariance structures. Statistically significant covariates within the best-fit models included the proportion of ice cover and forest cover within the basin, mean August air temperature, the proportion of consolidated geologic units, and snow-water equivalent. Statistical models that included spatial autocovariance structures had better predictive performance than those that did not. Additionally, models of mean August and September water temperature had better predictive performance than those of 7-day average daily maximum temperature in August and September. Predictions of the spatial distribution of water temperature were similar between August and September with a general warming in the downstream part of the mainstem White River compared to cooler water temperatures in the high-elevation headwater streams. The proportion of ice cover emerged as an inversely related significant covariate to both mean August and September water temperature because streams that receive glacial meltwater are colder than non-glaciated streams. Water temperatures of the upper White River increased downstream and are attributed to warming of water temperature from accumulated solar radiation and inflow of non-glaciated tributaries. Estimated water temperatures for the upper White River model are 3–4 degrees Celsius (°C) warmer for tributaries, but 1–2 °C cooler for the mainstem compared to the regional-scale model. Differences between the upper White River SSN model and the regional-scale NorWeST model are attributed to the fact that the upper White River SSN included water temperature observations specific to the upper White River, whereas water temperature observations from lower elevation streams and downstream from the Mount Rainer National Park boundary were used in the regional scale model.

Washington↗

Satellite-based water use dynamics using historical Landsat data (1984–2014) in the southwestern United States

Remote sensing-based field-scale evapotranspiration (ET) maps are useful for characterizing water use patterns and assessing crop performance. The relative impact of climate variability and water management decisions are better studied and quantified using historical data that are derived using a set of consistent datasets and methodology. Historical (1984–2014) Landsat-based ET maps were generated for major irrigation districts in California, i.e., Palo Verde and eight other sub-basins in parts of the middle and lower Central Valley. A total of 3396 Landsat images were processed using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model that integrates weather and remotely sensed images to estimate monthly and annual ET within the study sites over the 31 years. Model output evaluation and validation using gridded-flux data and water balance ET approaches indicated relatively good correspondence (R 2 up to 0.88, root mean square error as low as 14 mm/month) between SSEBop ET and validation datasets. In a pairwise comparison, annual variability of agro-hydrologic parameters of actual evapotranspiration ( ET a ), land surface temperature ( T s ), and runoff ( Q ) were found to be more variable than their corresponding climatic counterparts of atmospheric water demand ( ET o ), air temperature ( T a ), and precipitation ( P ), revealing process differences between regional climatic drivers and localized agro-hydrologic responses. However, only T a showed a consistent increase (up to 1.2 K) over study sites during the 31 years, whereas other climate variables such as ET o and P showed a generally neutral trend. This study demonstrates a useful application of “Big Data” science where large volumes of historical Landsat and weather datasets were used to quantify and understand the relative importance of water management and climate variability in crop water use dynamics in regards to the linkages among water management decisions, hydrologic processes and economic transactions. Irrigation district-wide ET a estimates were used to compute historical crop water use volumes and monetary equivalents of water savings for the Palo Verde Irrigation District (PVID). During the peak crop fallowing year in PVID, the water saved reached a maximum of ~ 107,200 acre-feet in 2011 with an estimated monetary payout value of $20.5 million. A significant decreasing trend in actual ET despite an increasing atmospheric demand in PVID highlights the role of management decisions in affecting local hydrologic processes. This study has importance for planning water resource allocation, managing water rights, sustaining agricultural production, and quantifying impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on water resources. With increased computational efficiency, similar studies can be conducted in other parts of the world to help policy and decision makers understand and quantify various aspects of water resources management.

Arizona, California↗

Review of selected features of the natural system model, and suggestions for applications in south Florida

A study was conducted to review selected features of the Natural System Model, version 4.3. The Natural System Model is a regional-scale model that uses recent climatic data and estimates of historic vegetation and topography to simulate pre-canal-drainage hydrologic response in south Florida. Equations used to represent the hydrologic system and the numerical solution of these equations in the model were documented and reviewed. Convergence testing was performed using 1965 input data, and selected other aspects of the model were evaluated. Some conclusions from the evaluation of the Natural System Model include the following observations. Simulations were generally insensitive to the temporal resolution used in the model. However, reduction of the computational cell size from 2-mile by 2-mile to 2/3-mile by 2/3-mile resulted in a decrease in spatial mean ponding depths for October of 0.35 foot for a 3-hour time step. Review of the computer code indicated that there is no limit on the amount of water that can be transferred from the river system to the overland flow system, on the amount of seepage from the river to the ground-water system, on evaporation from the river system, or on evapotranspiration from the overland-flow system. Oscillations of 0.2 foot or less in simulated river stage were identified and attributed to a volume limiting function which is applied in solution of the overland-flow equations. The computation of the resistance coefficient is not consistent with the computation of overland-flow velocity. Ground-water boundary conditions do not always ensure a no-flow condition at the boundary. These inconsistencies had varying degrees of effects on model simulations, and it is likely that simulations longer than 1 year are needed to fully identify effects. However, inconsistencies in model formulations should not be ignored, even if the effects of such errors on model results appear to be small or have not been clearly defined. The Natural System Model can be a very useful tool for estimating pre-drainage hydrologic response in south Florida. The model includes all of the important physical processes needed to simulate a water balance. With a few exceptions, these hydrologic processes are represented in a reasonable manner using empirical, semiempirical, and mechanistic relations. The data sets that have been assembled to represent physical features, and hydrologic and meteorological conditions are quite extensive in their scope. Some suggestions for model application were made. Simulation results from the Natural System Model need to be interpreted on a regional basis, rather than cell by cell. The available evidence suggests that simulated water levels should be interpreted with about a plus or minus 1 foot uncertainty. It is probably not appropriate to use the Natural System Model to estimate pre-drainage discharges (as opposed to hydroperiods and water levels) at a particular location or across a set of adjacent computational cells. All simulated results for computational cells within about 10 miles of the model boundaries have a higher degree of uncertainty than results for the interior of the model domain. It is most appropriate to interpret the Natural System Model simulation results in connection with other available information. Stronger linkages between hydrologic inputs to the Everglades and the ecological response of the system would enhance restoration efforts.

Florida↗

Characterization of and relations among precipitation, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and water-quality data at the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson and Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, Colorado, water years 2016–18

Frequent and prolonged military training maneuvers are an intensive type of land use that may disturb land cover, compact soils, and have lasting effects on adjacent stream hydrology and ecosystems. To better understand the potential effect of military training on hydrologic and environmental processes, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army established hydrologic and water-quality data-collection networks at the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson (AGFC) in 1978 and at the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site (PCMS) in 1982. The purpose of this report is to present precipitation, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and water-quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at the AGFC and PCMS for water years (WYs) 2016–18 and to evaluate those data in relation to long-term data from the AGFC and PCMS. In WYs 2016–18, the U.S. Geological Survey monitored 26 sites on the AGFC and 17 sites on the PCMS for precipitation amount, streamflow, suspended sediment, and (or) water quality. On the AGFC, total annual precipitation in WYs 2016–18 was larger than the long-term mean for all 3 years at Rod and Gun Meteorologic Station at Fort Carson, CO (Rod and Gun). There were statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation at Rod and Gun and Young Hollow Meteorologic Station at Fort Carson, CO (Young Hollow) with slopes of 1.25 and 0.66 inches per year (in/yr), respectively. The precipitation totals for WY 2017 were either the largest on record or in the top three for both sites and at Sullivan Park Meteorologic Station at Fort Carson, CO. On the PCMS, total annual precipitation was larger than the long-term mean in WYs 2016–18 at Brown Sheep Camp Meteorologic Station near Tyrone, CO; CIG Pipeline South Meteorologic Station near Simpson, CO; Bear Springs Hills Meteorologic Station near Houghton, CO (Bear Springs); and Upper Red Rock Canyon Meteorologic Station near Houghton, CO (Upper Red Rock). There were statistically significant upward trends in precipitation at Bear Springs and Upper Red Rock with slopes of 0.16 and 0.19 in/yr, respectively. The precipitation totals for WY 2017 were the largest on record for all sites except for Upper Bent Canyon Meteorological Station near Delhi, CO. Streamflow was calculated at 18 sites on the AGFC and 7 sites on the PCMS in at least 1 of WYs 2016–18. At AGFC, mean annual (or seasonal) streamflow in WYs 2016–18 was less than the long-term mean at 7 sites and greater than the long-term mean at 3 sites. There were statistically significant downward trends in mean annual or seasonal streamflow at Womack Ditch from Little Fountain Creek near Fort Carson, CO, and Ripley Ditch from Little Fountain Creek at Fort Carson, CO, with slopes of −0.036 and −0.028 cubic feet per second per year (ft 3 /s/y), respectively; and a significant upward trend in streamflow at Turkey Creek West Seepage below Teller Reservoir near Stone City, CO, with a slope of less than 0.001 ft 3 /s/y. Unlike for precipitation, the mean annual or seasonal streamflow for WY 2017 was not in the top 3 for any of the 12 sites with measured flow. At the PCMS, mean annual (or seasonal) streamflow was less than the long-term mean streamflow in WYs 2016–18 at the Taylor Arroyo below Rock Crossing near Thatcher, CO, and Bent Canyon Creek at Mouth near Timpas, CO, sites; and in WYs 2016 and 2018 at the Purgatoire River near Thatcher, CO (Purgatoire Thatcher), and Purgatoire River at Rock Crossing near Timpas, CO (Purgatoire Rock Crossing). There were no statistically significant trends in mean annual (or seasonal) streamflow at sites on the PCMS, and unlike for precipitation, the mean streamflow for WY 2017 was not in the top three for any sites except Purgatoire Rock Crossing. In WYs 2016–18, streamflow from sites on the AGFC and PCMS represented only a small fraction of streamflow in Fountain Creek or the Purgatoire River, and changes in streamflow that resulted from military maneuvers on the AGFC and PCMS were not likely to be detected in the downstream receiving waters. Suspended-sediment concentrations, loads, and yields for WYs 2016–18, were analyzed at two sites on the AGFC and five sites on the PCMS. On the AGFC, mean seasonal suspended-sediment concentrations ranged from 3.10 to 155 milligrams per liter (mg/L), mean seasonal suspended-sediment loads ranged from 0.04 to 27.1 tons per day (t/d), and seasonal suspended-sediment yields ranged from 0.28 to 216 tons per season per square mile (t/s/mi 2 ). Suspended-sediment yields at the two AGFC sites in WYs 2016–18 were all less than the long-term means. On the PCMS, mean seasonal suspended-sediment concentrations (at sites with some streamflow during a WY) ranged from 1.12 to 41.8 mg/L, mean suspended-sediment loads ranged from 0.01 to 13.1 t/d, and seasonal suspended-sediment yields ranged from 0.06 to 57.4 t/s/mi 2 . Suspended-sediment yields at the five PCMS sites in WYs 2016–18 were all less than the long-term means. In WYs 2016–18, mean daily suspended-sediment loads at Little Fountain were 1.3, 2.5, and 7.6 percent, respectively, of the mean daily suspended-sediment load at Fountain Creek at Security, Colorado. Likewise, the total of mean daily suspended-sediment loads from the five tributary sites to the Purgatoire River in WYs 2016–18 were about 0.25, 0.17, and 3.2 percent, respectively, of the historical mean daily suspended-sediment load at Purgatoire Thatcher. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the strength and form of the relations between daily total precipitation and daily mean streamflow and between daily mean streamflow and suspended-sediment concentration and load for WYs 2016–18. For the sites on the AGFC and PCMS, there were weak or statistically insignificant positive correlations between precipitation and streamflow at nearby streamgauges, but strong statistically significant positive correlations between streamflow and suspended-sediment concentration and load. The ephemeral nature of the streams, quantity and timing of precipitation, air temperature, seasonal soil-moisture deficits, and effective runoff detention in erosion-control ponds could all contribute to inconsistent conversion of precipitation to streamflow. Water-quality data were analyzed for as many as 43 parameters from 9 samples collected from 3 sites on the AGFC and from 37 samples collected from 4 sites on PCMS during WYs 2016–18. The concentrations of selected water-quality parameters were compared to regulatory standards for aquatic life from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) or aquatic-life criteria from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). There is at least 1 CDPHE standard or EPA criterion for 30 of the 43 water-quality parameters. For all samples from both the AGFC and the PCMS in WYs 2016–18, the concentrations of most water-quality parameters were compliant with the associated standards or criteria. However, there were some exceedances of standards or criteria: 11 samples exceeded the CDPHE recreational class standard for Escherichia coli concentration, 9 samples exceeded the CDPHE chronic unfiltered phosphorus aquatic-life standard, 36 samples exceeded the CDPHE chronic sulfate aquatic-life standard, 5 samples exceeded the EPA criterion for selenium, 7 samples exceeded the EPA criterion for aluminum, 2 samples exceeded the CDPHE chronic standard for iron, and 15 samples exceeded the CDPHE chronic standard for manganese. Identifying potential effects of military training on water quality in adjacent streams on the AGFC and PCMS is difficult due to the ephemeral nature of streamflow, limited number of sampling locations and samples, and limited access to the study areas. At the PCMS, pairs of water-quality samples were collected in March and May 2017 before and after an April–May 2017 military training event. At the Purgatoire Rock Crossing site, streamflow at the time of the May sample was approximately 35 times larger than streamflow for the March sample. The absolute percent differences of concentrations for 27 parameters ranged from −71.7 to 183 percent, and 7 parameters had increases in concentration whereas 22 parameters had no change or decreases in concentrations. The absolute percent differences of loads for 24 parameters ranged from 141 to 198 percent. The generally lower concentrations and higher loads were expected given the higher streamflows at the time of collection of the May compared to the March samples.

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