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Results for “Environmental Modeling & Assessment”

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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Polar bears from space: Assessing satellite imagery as a tool to track Arctic wildlife

Development of efficient techniques for monitoring wildlife is a priority in the Arctic, where the impacts of climate change are acute and remoteness and logistical constraints hinder access. We evaluated high resolution satellite imagery as a tool to track the distribution and abundance of polar bears. We examined satellite images of a small island in Foxe Basin, Canada, occupied by a high density of bears during the summer ice-free season. Bears were distinguished from other light-colored spots by comparing images collected on different dates. A sample of ground-truthed points demonstrated that we accurately classified bears. Independent observers reviewed images and a population estimate was obtained using mark- recapture models. This estimate (N: 94; 95% Confidence Interval: 92-105) was remarkably similar to an abundance estimate derived from a line transect aerial survey conducted a few days earlier (N: 102; 95% CI: 69-152). Our findings suggest that satellite imagery is a promising tool for monitoring polar bears on land, with implications for use with other Arctic wildlife. Large scale applications may require development of automated detection processes to expedite review and analysis. Future research should assess the utility of multi-spectral imagery and examine sites with different environmental characteristics.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2011

Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007–2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions.

PLoS Pathogens↗
USGS2013

Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2020

Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol

Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species’ range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares >1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Environmental Evidence↗
USGS2019

Negative frequency-dependent foraging behaviour in a generalist herbivore (Alces alces) and its stabilizing influence on food-web dynamics

1. Resource selection is widely appreciated to be context‐dependent and shaped by both biological and abiotic factors. However, few studies have empirically assessed the extent to which selective foraging behaviour is dynamic and varies in response to environmental conditions for free‐ranging animal populations. 2. Here, we assessed the extent that forage selection fluctuated in response to different environmental conditions for a free‐ranging herbivore, moose (Alces alces), in Isle Royale National Park, over a 10‐year period. More precisely, we assessed how moose selection for coniferous versus deciduous forage in winter varied between geographic regions and in relation to (a) the relative frequency of forage types in the environment (e.g. frequency‐dependent foraging behaviour), (b) moose abundance, (c) predation rate (by grey wolves) and (d) snow depth. These factors are potentially important for their influence on the energetics of foraging. We also built a series of food‐chain models to assess the influence of dynamic foraging strategies on the stability of food webs. 3. Our analysis indicates that moose exhibited negative frequency dependence, by selectively exploiting rare resources. Frequency‐dependent foraging was further mediated by density‐dependent processes, which are likely to be predation, moose abundance or some combination of both. In particular, frequency dependence was weaker in years when predation risk was high (i.e. when the ratio of moose to wolves was relatively low). Selection for conifers was also slightly weaker during deep snow years. 4. The food‐chain analysis indicates that the type of frequency‐dependent foraging strategy exhibited by herbivores had important consequences for the stability of ecological communities. In particular, the dynamic foraging strategy that we observed in the empirical analysis (i.e. negative frequency dependence being mediated by density‐dependent processes) was associated with more stable food web dynamics compared to fixed foraging strategies. 5. The results of this study indicated that forage selection is a complex ecological process, varying in response to both biological (predation and moose density) and abiotic factors (snow depth) and over relatively small spatial scales (between regions). This study also provides a useful framework for assessing the influence of other aspects of foraging behaviour on the stability of food web dynamics.

Michigan↗
USGS2024

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting New Hampshire’s economy

Introduction The topography of New Hampshire ranges from the Coastal Lowlands to the Eastern New England Upland to the White Mountains region. High-quality statewide elevation data are useful in managing this very diverse landscape. For example, the short coastline, including the Great Bay estuary and the Hampton-Seabrook marshes, is of disproportionately high value to New Hampshire’s tourist economy. The vulnerability of the coast to the effects of sea-level rise underscores the need for accurate, high-quality nearshore topographic elevation data and offshore bathymetric data to effectively manage the coast’s valuable resources, which include important fisheries, habitat, and infrastructure. Another important use for accurate elevation data in New Hampshire is in the evaluation of flood hazards and their potential environmental and infrastructure effects. This evaluation includes mapping of inundation and sediment transport, and assessing the associated costs of flooding. Addressing this challenge requires detailed knowledge of both surface topography and inland bathymetry. Other important activities having a substantial economic element and needing accurate elevation data include geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation, urban and regional planning, infrastructure and construction management, and cultural resources preservation and management. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2012

Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling. Final report

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species-specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database. Our approach consists of five main components: 1. A review of the primary scientific literature on statistical modeling of animal group size and avian count data to develop a candidate set of statistical distributions that have been used or may be useful to model seabird counts. 2. Statistical power curves for one-sample, one-tailed Monte Carlo significance tests of differences of observed small-sample means from a specified reference distribution. These curves show the power to detect "hotspots" or "coldspots" of occurrence and abundance at a range of effect sizes, given assumptions which we discuss. 3. A model selection procedure, based on maximum likelihood fits of models in the candidate set, to determine an appropriate statistical distribution to describe counts of a given species in a particular region and season. 4. Using a large database of historical at-sea seabird survey data, we applied this technique to identify appropriate statistical distributions for modeling a variety of species, allowing the distribution to vary by season. For each species and season, we used the selected distribution to calculate and map retrospective statistical power to detect hotspots and coldspots, and map pvalues from Monte Carlo significance tests of hotspots and coldspots, in discrete lease blocks designated by the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). 5. Because our definition of hotspots and coldspots does not explicitly include variability over time, we examine the relationship between the temporal scale of sampling and the proportion of variance captured in time series of key environmental correlates of marine bird abundance, as well as available marine bird abundance time series, and use these analyses to develop recommendations for the temporal distribution of sampling to adequately represent both shortterm and long-term variability. We conclude by presenting a schematic “decision tree” showing how this power analysis approach would fit in a general framework for avian survey design, and discuss implications of model assumptions and results. We discuss avenues for future development of this work, and recommendations for practical implementation in the context of siting and wildlife assessment for offshore renewable energy development projects.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗
USGS2002

Visualization of Flow Alternatives, Lower Missouri River

Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) 'Missouri River Master Water Control Manual' (Master Manual) review has resulted in consideration of many flow alternatives for managing the water in the river (COE, 2001; 1998a). The purpose of this report is to present flow-management alternative model results in a way that can be easily visualized and understood. This report was updated in October 2001 to focus on the specific flow-management alternatives presented by the COE in the 'Master Manual Revised Draft Environmental Impact Statement' (RDEIS; COE, 2001). The original version (February 2000) is available by clicking here. The COE, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), Missouri River states, and Missouri River basin tribes have been participating in discussions concerning water management of the Missouri River mainstem reservoir system (MRMRS), the Missouri River Bank Stabilization and Navigation Project, and the Kansas River reservoir system since 1986. These discussions include general input to the revision of the Master Manual as well as formal consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act. In 2000, the FWS issued a Biological Opinion that prescribed changes to reservoir management on the Missouri River that were believed to be necessary to preclude jeopardy to three endangered species, the pallid sturgeon, piping plover, and interior least tern (USFWS, 2000). The combined Missouri River system is large and complex, including many reservoirs, control structures, and free-flowing reaches extending over a broad region. The ability to assess future impacts of altered management scenarios necessarily involves complex, computational models that attempt to integrate physical, chemical, biological, and economic effects. Graphical visualization of the model output is intended to improve understanding of the differences among flow-management alternatives.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebrask↗
USGS1989

Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2018

Quantifying the visual-sensory landscape qualities that contribute to cultural ecosystem services using social media and LiDAR

Landscapes are increasingly recognized for providing valuable cultural ecosystem services with numer- ous non-material benefits by serving as places of rest, relaxation, and inspiration that ultimately improve overall mental health and physical well-being. Maintaining and enhancing these valuable benefits through targeted management and conservation measures requires understanding the spatial and tem- poral determinants of perceived landscape values. Content contributed through mobile technologies and the web are emerging globally, providing a promising data source for localizing and assessing these land- scape benefits. These georeferenced data offer rich in situ qualitative information through photos and comments that capture valued and special locations across large geographic areas. We present a novel method for mapping and modeling landscape values and perceptions that leverages viewshed analysis of georeferenced social media data. Using a high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) derived digital surface model, we are able to evaluate landscape characteristics associated with the visual- sensory qualities of outdoor recreationalists. Our results show the importance of historical monuments and attractions in addition to specific environmental features which are appreciated by the public. Evaluation of photo-image content highlights the opportunity of including temporally and spatially vari- able visual-sensory qualities in cultural ecosystem services (CES) evaluation like the sights, sounds and smells of wildlife and weather phenomena.

North Carolina↗
USGS2011

The USA National Phenology Network; taking the pulse of our planet

People have tracked phenology for centuries and for the most practical reasons: it helped them know when to hunt and fish, when to plant and harvest crops, and when to navigate waterways. Now phenology is being used as a tool to assess climate change and its effects on both natural and modified ecosystems. How is the timing of events in plant and animal life cycles, like flowering or migration, responding to climate change? And how are those responses, in turn, affecting people and ecosystems? The USA National Phenology Network (the Network) is working to answer these questions for science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and their relationship to environmental change. The Network is a consortium of organizations and individuals that collect, share, and use phenology data, models, and related information to enable scientists, resource managers, and the public to adapt in response to changing climates and environments. In addition, the Network encourages people of all ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology as a way to discover and explore the nature and pace of our dynamic world. The National Coordinating Office (NCO) of the Network is a resource center that facilitates and encourages widespread collection, integration, and sharing of phenology data and related information (for example, meteorological and hydrological data). The NCO develops and promotes standardized methods for field data collection and maintains several online user interfaces for data upload and download, as well as data exploration, visualization, and analysis. The NCO also facilitates basic and applied research related to phenology, the development of decision-support tools for resource managers and planners, and the design of educational and outreach materials

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2013

Review of a model to assess stranding of juvenile salmon by ship wakes along the Lower Columbia River, Oregon and Washington

Long period wake waves from deep draft vessels have been shown to strand small fish, particularly juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tschawytcha, in the lower Columbia River (LCR). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for maintaining the shipping channel in the LCR and recently conducted dredging operations to deepen the shipping channel from an authorized depth of 40 feet(ft) to an authorized depth of 43 ft (in areas where rapid shoaling was expected, dredging operations were used to increase the channel depth to 48 ft). A model was developed to estimate stranding probabilities for juvenile salmon under the 40- and 43-ft channel scenarios, to determine if channel deepening was going to affect wake stranding (Assessment of potential stranding of juvenile salmon by ship wakes along the Lower Columbia River under scenarios of ship traffic and channel depth: Report prepared for the Portland District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, Oregon). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funded the U.S. Geological Survey to review this model. A total of 30 review questions were provided to guide the review process, and these questions are addressed in this report. In general, we determined that the analyses by Pearson (2011) were appropriate given the data available. We did identify two areas where additional information could have been provided: (1) a more thorough description of model diagnostics and model selection would have been useful for the reader to better understand the model framework; and (2) model uncertainty should have been explicitly described and reported in the document. Stranding probability estimates between the 40- and 43-ft channel depths were minimally different under most of the scenarios that were examined by Pearson (2011), and a discussion of the effects of uncertainty given these minimal differences would have been useful. Ultimately, however, a stochastic (or simulation) model would provide the best opportunity to illustrate uncertainty within a given set of model predictions, but such an approach would require a substantial amount of additional data collection. Several review questions focused on the accuracy and precision of the model estimates, but we were unable to address these questions because of the limited data that currently exists regarding wake stranding in the LCR. Additional field studies will be required to validate findings from Pearson (2011), if concerns regarding accuracy and precision remain a priority. Although the Pearson (2011) model provided a useful examination of stranding under pre-construction and post-construction conditions, future research will be required to better understand the effects of wake stranding on juvenile salmonids throughout the entire LCR. If additional information on wake stranding is desired in the future, the following topics may be of interest: (1) spatial examination of wake stranding throughout the entire LCR; (2) additional evaluation of juvenile salmonid behavior and population dynamics; (3) assessing and integrating predicted changes in ship development; and (4) assessing and integrating predicted changes in climate on environmental factors known to cause stranding.

Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2009

Quality characteristics of ground water in the Ozark aquifer of northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma, 2006-07

Because of water quantity and quality concerns within the Ozark aquifer, the State of Kansas in 2004 issued a moratorium on most new appropriations from the aquifer until results were made available from a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Kansas Water Office. The purposes of the study were to develop a regional ground-water flow model and a water-quality assessment of the Ozark aquifer in northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma (study area). In 2006 and 2007, water-quality samples were collected from 40 water-supply wells completed in the Ozark aquifer and spatially distributed throughout the study area. Samples were analyzed for physical properties, dissolved solids and major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and selected isotopes. This report presents the results of the water-quality assessment part of the cooperative study. Water-quality characteristics were evaluated relative to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards. Secondary Drinking-Water Regulations were exceeded for dissolved solids (11 wells), sulfate and chloride (2 wells each), fluoride (3 wells), iron (4 wells), and manganese (2 wells). Maximum Contaminant Levels were exceeded for turbidity (3 wells) and fluoride (1 well). The Maximum Contaminant Level Goal for lead (0 milligrams per liter) was exceeded in water from 12 wells. Analyses of isotopes in water from wells along two 60-mile long ground-water flow paths indicated that water in the Ozark aquifer was at least 60 years old but the upper age limit is uncertain. The source of recharge water for the wells along the flow paths appeared to be of meteoric origin because of isotopic similarity to the established Global Meteoric Water Line and a global precipitation relation. Additionally, analysis of hydrogen-3 (3H) and carbon-14 (14C) indicated that there was possible leakage of younger ground water into the lower part of the Ozark aquifer. This may be caused by cracks or fissures in the confining unit that separates the upper and lower parts of the aquifer, poorly constructed or abandoned wells, or historic mining activities. Analyses of major ions in water from wells along the flow paths indicated a transition from freshwater in the east to saline water in the west. Generally, ground water along flow paths evolved from a calcium magnesium bicarbonate type to a sodium calcium bicarbonate or a sodium calcium chloride bicarbonate type as water moved from recharge areas in Missouri into Kansas. Much of this evolution occurred within the last 20 to 25 miles of the flow paths along a water-quality transition zone near the Kansas-Missouri State line and west. The water quality of the Kansas part of the Ozark aquifer is degraded compared to the Missouri part. Geophysical and well-bore flow information and depth-dependent water-quality samples were collected from a large-capacity (1,900-2,300 gallons per minute) municipal-supply well to evaluate vertical ground-water flow accretion and variability in water-quality characteristics at different levels. Although the 1,050-foot deep supply well had 500 feet of borehole open to the Ozark aquifer, 77 percent of ground-water flow entering the borehole came from two 20-foot thick rock layers above the 1,000-foot level. For the most part, water-quality characteristics changed little from the deepest sample to the well-head sample, and upwelling of saline water from deeper geologic formations below the well was not evident. However, more saline water may be present below the bottom of the well.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2013

Porphyry copper assessment of Europe, exclusive of the Fennoscandian Shield: Chapter K in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated with European geologists to assess resources in porphyry copper deposits in Europe, exclusive of Scandinavia (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland) and Russia. Porphyry copper deposits in Europe are Paleozoic and Late Cretaceous to Miocene in age. A number of the 31 known Phanerozoic deposits contain more than 1 million metric tons of contained copper, including the Majdanpek deposit, Serbia; Assarel, Bulgaria; Skouries, Greece; and Rosia Poeni, Romania. Five geographic areas were delineated as permissive tracts for post-Paleozoic porphyry copper deposits. Two additional tracts were delineated to show the extent of permissive igneous rocks associated with porphyry copper mineralization related to the Paleozoic Caledonian and Variscan orogenies. The tracts are based on mapped and inferred subsurface distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges that define areas where the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the Earth’s surface is possible. These tracts range in area from about 4,000 to 93,000 square kilometers. Although maps at a variety of different scales were used in the assessment, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. The post-Paleozoic deposits in Europe all formed in conjunction with the tectonic evolution of southern Europe as the former Tethyan Ocean closed by convergence of the African and Arabian Plates with Europe, accompanied by accretion of microcontinents to the southern Eurasian Plate and development and demise of magmatic arcs and ocean basins. Many of the deposits formed in extensional or post-collisional settings; these tectonic environments are increasingly being recognized as environments where porphyry copper deposits occur. Probabilistic estimates of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits were made for four Phanerozoic permissive tracts; the other tracts are discussed qualitatively. Assessment participants estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits at different levels of confidence for the four tracts. These estimates were then combined with grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic estimates of amounts of in-place undiscovered resources. Additional resources that may be present in extensions of known deposits were not evaluated. Assessment results are reported in tables and graphs as expected amounts of metal and rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each commodity for each tract. This assessment estimated a mean of 14 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within the four permissive tracts for which estimates were made. On the basis of global grade and tonnage models, mean (arithmetic) estimated resources that could be associated with undiscovered deposits are about 46 million metric tons of copper and about 2,600 metric tons of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver. Reliable reported identified resources for the 27 deposits in the assessed areas total about 44 million metric tons of copper and about 2,300 metric tons of gold. Exploration for gold-rich porphyry systems is ongoing in some parts of historical copper mining districts in central Europe and in northwesternmost (European) Turkey. Political and social conflicts, environmental concerns associated with historical mining, and the global economic situation have had negative effects on exploration, development, and mining in Europe for many years. The assessment includes an overview with summary tables. Detailed descriptions of each tract, including the rationales for delineation and assessment, are given in appendixes A–G. Appendix H describes a geographic information system (GIS) that includes tract boundaries and point locations of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Assessing predation risks for small fish in a large river ecosystem between contrasting habitats and turbidity conditions

This study examined predation risk for juvenile native fish between two riverine shoreline habitats, backwater and debris fan, across three discrete turbidity levels (low, intermediate, high) to understand environmental risks associated with habitat use in a section of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, AZ. Inferences are particularly important to juvenile native fish, including the federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha . This species uses a variety of habitats including backwaters which are often considered important rearing areas. Densities of two likely predators, adult rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and adult humpback chub, were estimated between habitats using binomial mixture models to examine whether higher predator density was associated with patterns of predation risk. Tethering experiments were used to quantify relative predation risk between habitats and turbidity conditions. Under low and intermediate turbidity conditions, debris fan habitat showed higher relative predation risk compared to backwaters. In both habitats the highest predation risk was observed during intermediate turbidity conditions. Density of likely predators did not significantly differ between these habitats. This information can help managers in Grand Canyon weigh flow policy options designed to increase backwater availability or extant turbidity conditions.

Arizona↗
USGS2014

Validating a method for transferring social values of ecosystem services between public lands in the Rocky Mountain region

With growing pressures on ecosystem services, social values attributed to them are increasingly important to land management decisions. Social values, defined here as perceived values the public ascribes to ecosystem services, particularly cultural services, are generally not accounted for through economic markets or considered alongside economic and ecological values in ecosystem service assessments. Social-values data can be elicited through public value and preference surveys; however, limitations prevent them from being regularly collected. These limitations led to our three study objectives: (1) demonstrate an approach for applying benefit transfer, a nonmarket-valuation method, to spatially explicit social values; (2) validate the approach; and (3) identify potential improvements. We applied Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) to survey data for three national forests in Colorado and Wyoming. Social-value maps and models were generated, describing relationships between the maps and various combinations of environmental variables. Models from each forest were used to estimate social-value maps for the other forests via benefit transfer. Model performance was evaluated relative to the locally derived models. Performance varied with the number and type of environmental variables used, as well as differences in the forests' physical and social contexts. Enhanced metadata and better social-context matching could improve model transferability.

Colorado;Wyoming↗
USGS2006

Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa

Early warning systems (EWS) tend to focus on the identification of slow onset disasters such famine and epidemic disease. Since hazardous environmental conditions often precede disastrous outcomes by many months, effective monitoring via satellite and in situ observations can successfully guide mitigation activities. Accurate short term forecasts of NDVI could increase lead times, making early warning earlier. This paper presents a simple empirical model for making 1 to 4 month NDVI projections. These statistical projections are based on parameterized satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) and relative humidity demand (RHD). A quasi-global, 1 month ahead, 1° study demonstrates reasonable accuracies in many semi-arid regions. In Africa, a 0.1° cross-validated skill assessment quantifies the technique's applicability at 1 to 4 month forecast intervals. These results suggest that useful projections can be made over many semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa, with plausible extensions to drought prone areas of Asia, Australia and South America.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2009

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D 2 , +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Conference Paper↗