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USGS2025

Climate change refugia hotspots for priority species: A case study in East Africa

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced with Tanzanian partners the first comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania through extensive consultation, in-person conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts. We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100, using GFDL Earth System and the UK Earth System models. More than half under SSP126 and 79% of focal species under SSP585 lost their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania's conservation prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and montane ecosystems.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2022

Looking ahead, guided by the past: The role of U.S. national parks in amphibian research and conservation

Protected areas like national parks are essential elements of conservation because they limit human influence on the landscape, which protects biodiversity and ecosystem function. The role of national parks in conservation, however, often goes far beyond limiting human influence. The U.S. National Park Service and its system of land units contribute substantively to conservation by providing protected lands where researchers can document trends in species distributions and abundances, examine characteristics important for generating these trends, and identify and implement conservation strategies to preserve biodiversity. We reviewed the contribution of U.S. national parks to amphibian research and conservation and highlight important challenges and findings in several key areas. First, U.S. national parks were instrumental in providing strong support that amphibian declines were real and unlikely to be simply a consequence of habitat loss. Second, research in U.S. national parks provided evidence against certain hypothesized causes of decline, like UV-B radiation, and evidence for others, such as introduced species and disease. However, describing declines and identifying causes contributes to conservation only if it leads to management; importantly, U.S. national parks have implemented many conservation strategies and evaluated their effectiveness in recovering robust amphibian populations. Among these, removal of invasive species, especially fishes; conservation translocations; and habitat creation and enhancement stand out as examples of successful conservation strategies with broad applicability. Successful management for amphibians is additionally complicated by competing mandates and stakeholder interests; for example, past emphasis on increasing visitor enjoyment by introducing fish to formerly fishless lakes had devastating consequences for many amphibians. Other potential conflicts with amphibian conservation include increasing development, increased risk of introductions of disease and exotic species with increased visitation, and road mortality. Decision science and leveraging partnerships have proven to be key components of effective conservation under conflicting mandates in national parks. As resource managers grapple with large-scale drivers that are outside local control, public-private partnerships and adaptive strategies are increasing in importance. U.S. national parks have played an important role in many aspects of identifying and ameliorating the amphibian decline crisis and will continue to be essential for the conservation of amphibians in the future.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2013

Analysis of changes in water-level dynamics at selected sites in the Florida Everglades

The historical modification and regulation of the hydrologic patterns in the Florida Everglades have resulted in changes in the ecosystem of South Florida and the Florida Everglades. Since the 1970s, substantial focus has been given to the restoration of the Everglades ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey through its Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Science and National Water-Quality Assessment Programs has been providing scientific information to resource managers to assist in the Everglades restoration efforts. The current investigation included development of a simple method to identify and quantify changes in historical hydrologic behavior within the Everglades that could be used by researchers to identify responses of ecological communities to those changes. Such information then could be used by resource managers to develop appropriate water-management practices within the Everglades to promote restoration. The identification of changes in historical hydrologic behavior within the Everglades was accomplished by analyzing historical time-series water-level data from selected gages in the Everglades using (1) break-point analysis of cumulative Z-scores to identify hydrologic changes and (2) cumulative water-level frequency distribution curves to evaluate the magnitude of those changes. This analytical technique was applied to six long-term water-level gages in the Florida Everglades. The break-point analysis for the concurrent period of record (1978–2011) identified 10 common periods of changes in hydrologic behavior at the selected gages. The water-level responses at each gage for the 10 periods displayed similarity in fluctuation patterns, highlighting the interconnectedness of the Florida Everglades hydrologic system. While the patterns were similar, the analysis also showed that larger fluctuations in water levels between periods occurred in Water Conservation Areas 2 and 3 in contrast to those in Water Conservation Area 1 and the Everglades National Park. Results from the analysis indicate that the cumulative Z-score curve, in conjunction with cumulative water-level frequency distribution curves, can be a useful tool in identifying and quantifying changes in historical hydrologic behavior within the Everglades. In addition to the analysis, a spreadsheet application was developed to assist in applying these techniques to time-series water-level data at gages within the Everglades and is included with this report.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Ecosystem-engineered infections: Beaver-modified wetlands are associated with conflicting drivers of amphibian pathogen prevalence

Beavers are ecosystem engineers and keystone species that protect freshwater resources and increase biodiversity. Beaver reintroductions are promoted for amphibian conservation, yet their impact on Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen linked with amphibian population declines worldwide, remains unclear. We investigated the abiotic and biotic drivers of Bd prevalence in Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) and western toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) in 20 beaver-modified and 23 non-beaver wetlands in Glacier National Park, USA. We found that beavers increased wetland hydroperiod, which was associated with higher Bd prevalence. However, beavers also reduced wetland canopy cover, which was associated with lower Bd prevalence. Our models also predicted higher Bd prevalence associated with higher adult density of both species of amphibians, although species’ densities were similar in beaver-modified and non-beaver wetlands. These results suggest that beavers have a cumulatively negligible net effect on Bd prevalence owing to their effects on both hydroperiod and canopy cover, which is encouraging for amphibian conservation. Our findings also suggest that decreasing canopy cover may be a potential management option to reduce Bd prevalence. In addition, these findings indicate that beaver-mimicking restoration projects may harm amphibian populations if they increase wetland hydroperiods without reducing canopy cover.

Montana↗

USGS2011

Greater sage-grouse of Grand Teton National Park: where do they roam?

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population declines may be caused by range-wide degradation of sagebrush (woody Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystems. Understanding how greater sage-grouse use the landscape is essential for successful management. We assessed greater sage-grouse habitat selection on a landscape level in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and radio-collared sage-grouse to compare habitat used and the total available landscape. Greater sage-grouse selected mountain big sagebrush (A. tridentata var. vaseyana) communities or mixed mountain big sagebrush–antelope bitterbrush (Purshia tridentata) communities and avoided low-sagebrush (A. arbuscula) dwarf shrubland. In spring and summer, sage-grouse primarily used sagebrush-dominated habitats on the valley floor and did not concentrate in mesic areas later in the summer as is typical of the species. The diversity of habitats used in winter exceeds that reported in the literature. In winter, Jackson Hole greater sage-grouse moved to hills, where they used various communities in proportion to their availability, including tall deciduous shrublands, cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) stands, exposed hillsides, and aspen (P. tremuloides) stands. Because seasonal habitat selection is not necessarily consistent across populations residing in different landscapes, habitat management should be specific to each population and landscape. This sage-grouse population provides an example that may offer insight into other species with seasonal habitat needs.

Grand Teton National Park↗

USGS2019

Exposure and potential effects of pesticides and pharmaceuticals in protected streams of the US National Park Service southeast Region

Globally protected areas offer refugia for a broad range of taxa including threatened and endangered species. The United States National Park Service (NPS) manages public lands to preserve biodiversity, but increasing park visitation and development of surrounding landscapes increase exposure to and effects from bioactive contaminants. The risk (exposure and hazard) to NPS protected-stream ecosystems within the highly urbanized southeast region (SER) from bioactive contaminants was assessed in five systems based on 334 pesticide and pharmaceutical analytes in water and 119 pesticides in sediment. Contaminant mixtures were common across all sampled systems, with approximately 24% of the unique analytes (80/334) detected at least once and 15% (49/334) detected in half of the surface-water samples. Pharmaceuticals were observed more frequently than pesticides, consistent with riparian buffers and concomitant spatial separation from non-point pesticide sources in four of the systems. To extrapolate exposure data to biological effects space, site specific cumulative exposure-activity ratios (ΣEAR) were calculated for detected surface-water contaminants with available ToxCast data; common exceedances of a 0.001 ΣEAR effects-screening threshold raise concerns for molecular toxicity and possible, sub-lethal effects to non-target, aquatic vertebrates. The results illustrate the need for continued management of protected resources to reduce contaminant exposure and preserve habitat quality, including prioritization of conservation practices (riparian buffers) near stream corridors and increased engagement with upstream/up-gradient property owners and municipal wastewater facilities.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, ↗

USGS2021

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado↗

USGS2017

Monitoring eradication of European mouflon sheep from the Kahuku Unit of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

European mouflon ( Ovis gmelini musimon ), the world's smallest wild sheep, have proliferated and degraded fragile native ecosystems in the Hawaiian Islands through browsing, bark stripping, and trampling, including native forests within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO). HAVO resource managers initiated ungulate control efforts in the 469 km 2 Kahuku Unit after it was acquired in 2003. We tracked control effort and used aerial surveys in a 64.7 km 2 area from 2004 to 2017 and more intensive ground surveys and camera-trap monitoring to detect the last remaining animals within a 25.9 km 2 subunit after it was enclosed by fence in 2012. Aerial shooting yielded the most removals per unit effort (3.2 animals/ hour), resulting in 261 animals. However, ground-based methods yielded 4,607 removals overall, 3,038 of which resulted from assistance of volunteers. Ground shooting with dogs, intensive aerial shooting, ground sweeps, and forward-looking infrared (FLIR)-assisted shooting were necessary to find and remove the last remaining mouflon. The Judas technique, baiting, and trapping were not successful in attracting or detecting small numbers of remaining individuals. Effort expended to remove each mouflon increased nearly 15-fold during the last 3 yr of eradication effort from 2013 to 2016. Complementary active and passive monitoring techniques allowed us to track the effectiveness of control effort and reveal locations of small groups to staff. The effort and variety of methods required to eradicate mouflon from an enclosed unit of moderate size illustrates the difficulty of scaling up to entire populations of wild ungulates from unenclosed areas.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2016

Salamander chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ) in the United States—Developing research, monitoring, and management strategies

The recently (2013) identified pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivoran s ( Bsal ), poses a severe threat to the distribution and abundance of salamanders within the United States and Europe. Development of a response strategy for the potential, and likely, invasion of Bsal into the United States is crucial to protect global salamander biodiversity. A formal working group, led by Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins Science Center, and Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, was held at the USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States from June 23 to June 25, 2015, to identify crucial Bsal research and monitoring needs that could inform conservation and management strategies for salamanders in the United States. Key findings of the workshop included the following: (1) the introduction of Bsal into the United States is highly probable, if not inevitable, thus requiring development of immediate short-term and long-term intervention strategies to prevent Bsal establishment and biodiversity decline; (2) management actions targeted towards pathogen containment may be ineffective in reducing the long-term spread of Bsal throughout the United States; and (3) early detection of Bsal through surveillance at key amphibian import locations, among high-risk wild populations, and through analysis of archived samples is necessary for developing management responses. Top research priorities during the preinvasion stage included the following: (1) deployment of qualified diagnostic methods for Bsal and establishment of standardized laboratory practices, (2) assessment of susceptibility for amphibian hosts (including anurans), and (3) development and evaluation of short- and long-term pathogen intervention and management strategies. Several outcomes were achieved during the workshop, including development of an organizational structure with working groups for a Bsal Task Force, creation of an initial influence diagram to aid in identifying effective management actions in the face of uncertainty, and production of a list of potential management actions and key research uncertainties. Additional products under development include a Bsal Strategic Action plan, an emergency response plan, a monitoring and surveillance program, a standardized diagnostic approach, decision models for natural resource agencies, and a reporting database for salamander mortalities. This workshop was the first international meeting to address the threat of Bsal to salamander populations in the United States, with more than 30 participants from U.S. conservation and resource management agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. National Park Service, and Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies) and academic research institutions in Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

Reassessing a troublesome fact of mountain life: Avalanches in Glacier National Park

For the past decade, our U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research team has rummaged through Glacier National Park’s archives looking for records of snow avalanches. Our searches have paid off. We have found photographs that show snow avalanches blocking progress during the annual spring opening of the famed Going-to-the-Sun Road, ranger logs that describe cabins and telephone lines destroyed by avalanches, and superintendents’ reports that recount avalanche accidents that killed employees or visitors. Recently, we have combined these historical sources with field studies to investigate whether snow avalanches in the park may be more cyclical than random and as much an ecological process as a natural hazard. Our ongoing research in Montana has yielded relevant information for park managers elsewhere who deal with avalanche threats to park infrastructure and for ecologists seeking a better understanding of how mountain ecosystems function. Our research has focused on two transportation corridors: the Going-to-the-Sun Road that bisects the center of the park, and John F. Stevens Canyon, at the park’s southwest corner ( fig. 1 ). The Going-to-the-Sun Road is the park’s most visited attraction; deep snow and avalanches force the road’s closure each winter, and in spring, park crews dig it out using bulldozers and other heavy equipment ( fig. 2 ). Springtime avalanches can bury workers or push equipment off the road and over cliffs ( figs. 3a and 3b ), as happened in 1953, when two workers died. Our research started with a study of how interannual variations in snowfall and avalanches affect the road opening. The initial study helped park managers predict and plan for the road opening in spring and respond to the many topical questions from park visitors and locals. More recent studies have focused on determining the conditions that create springtime avalanches, which are a poorly understood aspect of the avalanche phenomenon.

Wyoming↗

USGS2003

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2025

Land-based nutrient flux to a fringing reef: Insights from Ofu Island, American Samoa

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a critical driver of nutrient transport in coral reef ecosystems, shaping water quality, primary productivity, and overall reef health. This study quantifies SGD fluxes and associated nutrient dynamics in two reef flat pools within the Ofu Unit of the National Park of American Samoa: Papaloloa and Fatuana. A multi-method approach integrating unoccupied aerial system-based thermal infrared (UAS-TIR) surveys, radon-based SGD measurements, multichannel electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and discrete water sampling was used to assess SGD rates and nutrient contributions. UAS-TIR imagery revealed cooler sea surface temperatures in both pools, indicative of SGD, with the higher fluxes observed in Papaloloa. Radon measurements revealed a strong inverse correlation between SGD rates and tidal stage, with a more immediate SGD response at Papaloloa due to its highly permeable calcareous sand and gravel substrate. In contrast, a 2–3-hour lag in SGD response at Fatuana suggests discharge from a more inland aquifer that has lower diffusivity. Nutrient concentrations correlated with temperature and salinity, confirming SGD as the dominant nutrient transport mechanism, whereas isotopic analyses indicated inputs from both groundwater and potential anthropogenic sources. Despite lower SGD flux at Fatuana, higher algal cover suggests additional factors influencing algal proliferation, including substrate availability and hydrodynamic conditions. Excess nutrient inputs from SGD may contribute to algal overgrowth, which threatens Ofu’s thermally tolerant corals by increasing competition for space and light. These findings underscore the complexity of SGD-mediated nutrient dynamics in reef environments and emphasize the need for integrated hydrological and ecological assessments to support effective reef conservation and management strategies.

American Samoa, Ofu Island, Olosega Island↗

USGS2023

Effectiveness of a decade of treatments to reduce invasive buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare)

The invasion of nonnative grasses threatens biodiversity and ecosystem function globally through competition with native plant species and increases to wildfire frequency and intensity. Management actions to reduce buffelgrass [ Pennisetum ciliare (L.) Link], an invasive warm-season perennial bunchgrass, are widely implemented, with chemical and mechanical treatments extending over two decades within Saguaro National Park in the Sonoran Desert of North America. We assessed how the effectiveness of treatments to reduce P. ciliare cover spanning from 2011 to 2020 were influenced by stage of invasion, treatment type and intensity, and environmental conditions. An increase in treatment effectiveness was largely explained by high initial cover of P. ciliare , an indicator of a late invasion stage and associated with high treatment intensity. Treatments had potential to be effective in patches as small as 0.3-m 2 P. ciliare canopy per 400-m −2 area (<0.001% canopy cover) across treatment types and environmental gradients. Chemical treatments had higher or equal effectiveness compared with mechanical treatments, and greater reductions in P. ciliare were associated with shorter average years of treatment interruptions, or gaps, and to a lesser degree, total years of treatment. In many cases, P. ciliare was reduced with as little as 2 yr of treatment, but more than 3 average years of treatment gap could result in reduced treatment effectiveness. There was generally higher treatment effectiveness on shallow slopes, north- and east-facing aspects, and on higher elevations within one district of the park. Our findings highlight that resource-intensive treatments in all but the smallest patches of P. ciliare have largely been effective. Further opportunities for improvement include more frequent surveillance, limiting treatment gaps to ≤3 yr in areas of low P. ciliare cover, and comparison of treated with untreated areas.

Arizona↗

USGS2005

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2004

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2004 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The study team continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). A computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was completed in spring 2005. We will use an improved version of this model to verify the accuracy of the rules using known bears and their telemetry locations in test runs. We hope to have this work complete by the end of 2005. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established mortality quotas at 4% of the minimum population estimate derived from female with COY data and no more than 30% of the 4% (1.2%) could be female bears. Simulation modeling (Harris 1984) established sustainable mortality at around 6% of the population. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris. A Wildlife Monograph has been accepted for publication and should be available by summer 2005. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine has been published (Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770). The manuscript on fish consumption rates was also accepted and is published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493-501. Both can be found on the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. We began a new study in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black ( Ursus americanus ) bears. We will employ a new form of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of our first yea r’s field season are summarized in this report. Whitebark pine (WBP) has been identified as one of the import ant fall foods of the Yellowstone grizzly bear. Previous efforts to map the distribution of WBP were for the Cumulative Effects Model. Consequently the only coverage of WBP distribution was for the grizzly bear Recovery Zone. We were successful in getting financial support through the U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program and Interdisciplinary Science Support Activities Project to create an ecosystem-wide map of the distribution of WBP. The results of that project are reported in Appendix A. The study team annually estimates WBP cone production on a series of transects. That information is reported annually in our reports. Concern over the long-term health of WBP prompted us to investigate the usefulness of cone counts as an indirect index of WBP health. Results of this analysis (Appendix B) indicated that cone production is too variable to serve this purpose. Consequently, we partnered with several 2 other agencies and embarked on a program to develop a long-term monitoring program directed specifically at WBP health in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Our team (Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group) was successful in obtaining funds to develop and implement a WBP health monitoring program. Results of our first years work are presented in Appendix C. We also successfully competed for funds in 2005 and will continue to collect information on WBP health. Army cutworm moths ( Euxoa auxiliaris ) are also a very important food for a segment of the GYE grizzly bear population. Hillary Robison, graduate student at University of Nevada, Reno, is nearing completion of her program. In this report, we post her annual work summary, and abstracts of her most recently submitted publications. These include one on the levels of pesticides in cutworm moths and their potential affect on grizzly bears (Appendix D), a spatial analysis to identify army cutworm moth habitat (Appendix E), and the results of a preliminary analysis of pollen grains on the mouth parts of moths (Appendix F) to help identify which plant species are commonly fed upon. Other study team members have also been working on various aspects of grizzly bear science. Study team member Kerry Gunther hosted a workshop on habituated grizzly bears in North America. A copy of the abstract of that report can be found in Appendix G. Additionally, Kerry Gunther and Doug Smith, wolf researcher in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), reported on the interactions between gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) and female grizzly bears with young. They report that of 15 interactions between these 2 carnivores, 8 involve d females with COY. They observed 2 incidents where cubs were killed by wolves at ungulate carcasses (Appendix H). The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a ), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia↗

USGS2013

Science-based management of public lands in southern Nevada

Landmark legislation provides guiding principles for land management planning in southern Nevada and the rest of the United States. Such legislation includes, but is not limited to, the Forest Service Organic Administration Act of 1897 (16 U.S>C. 473-478, 479-482 and 551), National Park Service Organic Act of 1916 (U.S.C. Title 16, Secs. 1-4). Wilderness Act 1964 (P.L.88-577), National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (P.L. 91-190), Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L. 91-205), National Forest Management Act of of 1976 (P.L. 94-588), and Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-579). The acts establishing congressionally designated areas within southern Nevada, such as Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Spring Mountains National Restoration Area, and Desert National Wildlife Refuge, also contain guidelines for the management of these lands. These documents variously require preservation of natural and cultural resource and wilderness character, protection of species, and prevention of undesirable environmental effects from land management actions. These requirements must be met while allowing for multiple "uses" of certain public lands (e.g. recreation, ranching, resources extraction, renewable energy development, etc.) to the degree that they do no threaten preservation, protection, and prevention goals,. many considerations some into play in the development and implementation for land management plans and actions. The planning process requires a balancing act that sometimes pit one need or priority against another. When priorities can trump other needs can prioritized and receive disproportionate consideration. Overall, the management of public lands is a very complicated and sometime contentious process. Science provides an objective way to help weigh quantifiable information and draw conclusions about the effects of past and potential future land management policies, decisions, and actions. When effectively integrated into adaptive management, science-based information can reduce uncertainties, increase knowledge, and improve decision making. However, the specific science information needed for effective management is often lacking or difficult to access or interpret. Science is typically reported in scientific journals as discrete units describing individual studies with other scientists as the primary audience. Translations of these studies an synthesis or multiple studies into formats that can be readily used in land management planning efforts are often lacking. Identifying and articulating the highest priority science and research needs is one of the primary purposes of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http://www.SNAP.gov) Science and Research Team (chapter 1; Turner and others 2009). The SNAP Science and Research Strategy (Strategy) calls for a synthesis report to be written every 5 years summarizing the state of knowledge, information gaps and management implications of scientific information as it relates to the SNAP Strategy goals (Turner and others 2009). This General Technical Report serves as the first SNAP Science and Research Synthesis Report (Synthesis Report) commissioned by the Science and Research Team. The Synthesis Report is mostly based on information form the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and is itself peer reviewed and constitutes a new contribution to the scientific literature. This final chapter addresses Sub-goal 2.3, which is to manage current and future authorized southern Nevada land uses in a manner that balances public need and ecosystem sustainability, and Sub-goal 2.5, which is to promote an effective conservation education and interpretation program to improve the quality of resources and enhance public use and enjoyment of southern Nevada public lands. It summarizes information form the previous chapters on what scientific information is known currently and what remains largely unknown, and it discusses how science can be used to make future management decisions that balances public needs and ecosystem sustainability.

Nevada↗

USGS2007

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2006

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2006 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of- the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). After considerable delays due to programming issues, a computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups was development and tested in 2005 and 2006. Simulations using observations of collared females with COY were randomly sampled to generate datasets of observations of random females with COY. These datasets were then run though the simulations program to test the accuracy of the rules. Data are currently being summarized. This project has been completed and a manuscript was submitted to the Journal of Wildlife Management. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established human-caused mortality quotas. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris (1984). A Wildlife Monographs was published in 2006. Additionally, the study team, in cooperation with several quantitative experts, reassessed how population size is indexed and how sustainable mortality rates are established. A draft report was presented to the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee in spring 2005. It was published as part of the USFWS Delisting Rule (Federal Register Vol. 70, No. 221, Nov. 17, 2005, 69853–69884) and subjected to public comment. This workshop document can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm. During the summer of 2006, a second workshop was held to address public comment and professional peer review. The result of this workshop was a supplement to the 2005 workshop document. This supplement can be found at http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/species/mammals/grizzly/yellowstone.htm under the link Revised Methods to Estimate Population Size and Sustainable Mortality Limits. Results of those estimates are provided in Appendix A. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine was published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770. Results of the mercury studies were also published in the Canadian Journal of Zoology 82:493–501. Copies can be found on the IGBST website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. Based upon this work, we submitted a proposal to analyze all historic tissue samples from grizzly bears in the ecosystem. That proposal was funded and samples have been sent to a lab for isotopic analysis. We hope to have those results in early 2008. Results of DNA hair snaring work conducted on Yellowstone Lake were submitted and published in the Journal Ursus (Haroldson et al. 2005). Results of this study conducted from 1997–2000 showed a decline in fish use by grizzly bears when compared to earlier work conducted by Reinhart (1990) in 1985–1987. As a consequence, the IGBST submitted a proposal to the National Park Service and received 3 years funding to repeat that work. This project began in 2007. There are 2 graduate students and several field technicians working on the program. We completed the final field season in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black bears ( Ursus americanus ). We continue to use GPS technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. Results of the 2006 field season are reported here. We plan to complete the final report in late 2007. We continued to monitor the health of whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in cooperation with the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. A summary of the 2006 monitoring is also presented (Appendix B). The IGBST uses counts of winter-killed ungulates to index spring carcass abundance for grizzly bears. Likewise, we use wier counts and stream surveys to index cutthroat trout abundance. We ask Dr. Steve Cherry, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University-Bozeman, to review the protocols and make recommendations for improving them. That review and recommendations are presented in Appendix C. Finally, the state of Wyoming, following recommendations from the Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee and the IGBST, launched the Bear Wise Community Effort. The focus is to minimize human/bear conflicts, minimize human-caused bear mortalities associated with conflicts, and safeguard the human community. Results of these efforts are detailed in Appendix D. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991 a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, Carlsbad, New Mexico, April 29-May 2, 2014

Karst aquifer systems are present throughout parts of the United States and some of its territories, and have developed in carbonate rocks (primarily limestone and dolomite) that span an interval of time encompassing more than 550 million years. The depositional environments, diagenetic processes, post-depositional tectonic events, and geochemical weathering processes that form karst aquifers are varied and complex, and involve biological, chemical, and physical changes. These factors, combined with the diverse climatic regimes under which karst development in these rocks has taken place, result in the unique dual- or triple-porosity nature of karst aquifers. These complex hydrogeologic systems typically represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport in these terrains. The dissolution of carbonate rocks and the subsequent development of distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs has resulted in the most exceptional karst areas of the United States being designated as national or state parks; commercial caverns and known privately owned caves number in the tens of thousands. Both public and private properties provide access for scientists to study the flow of groundwater in situ. Likewise, the range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than for any other aquifer type. Karst aquifers and landscapes that form in tropical areas, such as the cockpit karst along the north coast of Puerto Rico, differ greatly from karst landforms in more arid climates, such as the Edwards Plateau in west-central Texas or the Guadalupe Mountains near Carlsbad, New Mexico, where hypogenic processes have played a major role in speleogenesis. Many of these public and private lands also contain unique flora and fauna associated with these karst hydrogeologic systems. As a result, numerous federal, state, and local agencies have a strong interest in the study of karst terrains. Many of the major springs and aquifers in the United States have developed in carbonate rocks, such as the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina; the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma; and the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system in west-central Texas. These aquifers, and the springs that discharge from them, serve as major water-supply sources and as unique ecological habitats. Competition for the water resources of karst aquifers is common, and urban development and the lack of attenuation of contaminants in karst areas can impact the ecosystem and water quality of these aquifers. The concept for developing a platform for interaction among scientists within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) working on karst-related studies evolved from the November 1999 National Ground-Water Meeting of the USGS. As a result, the Karst Interest Group (KIG) was formed in 2000. The KIG is a loose-knit, grass-roots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst science. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. Additionally, the KIG encourages collaborative studies between the different mission areas of the USGS as well as other federal and state agencies, and with researchers from academia and institutes. The KIG also encourages younger scientists by participation of students in the poster and oral sessions. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops that are held near nationally important karst areas. To date (2014) six KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The workshops typically include oral and poster sessions on selected karst-related topics and research, as well as field trips to local karst features. Proceedings of the workshops are published by the USGS and are available online at http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/karst/kig . The first KIG workshop was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, February 13–16, 2001, in the vicinity of the large springs and other karst features of the Floridan aquifer system. The second KIG workshop was held August 20–22, 2002, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in proximity to the carbonate aquifers of the northern Shenandoah Valley and highlighted an invited presentation on karst literature by the late Barry F. Beck of P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates. The third KIG workshop was held September 12–15, 2005, in Rapid City, South Dakota, nearby to karst features in evaporites and limestones of the Madison Group in the Black Hills of South Dakota, including Wind Cave National Park and Jewel Cave National Monument. The workshop also included a featured presentation by Thomas Casadevall, Central Region Director, USGS, on the status of earth science at the USGS and evening trips to Jewel Cave led by Mike Wiles, National Park Service (NPS) and Wind Cave led by Rod Horrocks, NPS. The fourth KIG workshop was held May 27–29, 2008, and hosted by the Hoffman Environmental Research Institute and Center for Cave and Karst Studies at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green, Kentucky, near Mammoth Cave National Park and karst features of the Chester Upland and Pennyroyal Plateau. The workshop featured a late-night field trip into Mammoth Cave with Rickard Toomey and Rick Olsen, NPS. The fifth workshop was held April 26–29, 2011, and was a joint meeting of the USGS KIG and University of Arkansas HydroDays, hosted by the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. The workshop featured an outstanding field trip to the unique karst terrain along the Buffalo National River of the southern Ozarks and a keynote presentation on paleokarst in the United States by Art and Peggy Palmer. This sixth and current 2014 KIG workshop is hosted by the National Cave and Karst Research Institute (NCKRI) in Carlsbad, New Mexico, with Director of NCKRI, George Veni, serving as co-chair of the workshop with Eve Kuniansky, USGS. The session planning committee for this sixth workshop includes Van Brahana, USGS retired and University of Arkansas Professor Emeritus; Tom Byl, USGS and Tennessee State University; Zelda Bailey, former Director of NCKRI and retired Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Boulder Laboratory, Colorado; Patrick Tucci, USGS retired; and Mike Bradley, Allan Clark, Geoff Delin, Daniel Doctor, James Kaufmann, Eve Kuniansky, Randy Orndorff, Larry Spangler, and Dave Weary of the USGS. The karst hydrology field trip on Thursday will be led by Lewis Land (NCKRI karst hydrologist) and the optional Friday field trip on the geology of Carlsbad Caverns National Park will be led by George Veni. The keynote speaker is Dr. Penelope Boston, Director of Cave and Karst Studies at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, and Academic Director at NCKRI, who will address the future of karst research. Additionally, there is a featured presentation “Irish karst and its management,” by Caoimhe Hickey, The Geological Survey of Ireland, preceding a panel discussion on “Collaboration During Times of Limited Resources.” The extended abstracts of USGS authors were peer reviewed and approved for publication by the U.S. Geological Survey. Articles submitted by university researchers and other federal and state agencies did not go through the formal USGS peer review and approval process, and therefore may not adhere to our editorial standards or stratigraphic nomenclature and is not research conducted or data collected by the USGS. However, all articles had at a minimum of two peer reviews, and all articles were edited for consistency of appearance in the published Proceedings. The use of trade, firm or product names in any article is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The USGS, Office of Groundwater, provides technical support for the Karst Interest Group website and public availability of the Proceedings from these workshops, and the USGS Groundwater Resources Program funds the publication costs. Finally, the cover illustration is the work of Ann Tihansky, USGS, used since the first KIG workshop in 2000.

Scientific Investigations Report↗