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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS1991

Circum-Pacific seismic potential: 1989-1999

The seismic potential for 96 segments of simple plate boundaries around the circum-Pacific region is presented in terms of the conditional probability for the occurrence of either large or great interplate earthquakes during the next 5, 10, and 20 years (i.e., 1989-1994, 1989-1999 and 1989-2009). This study represents the first probabilistic summary of seismic potential on this scale, and involves the comparison of plate boundary segments that exhibit varying recurrence times, magnitudes, and tectonic regimes. Presenting these data in a probabilistic framework provides a basis for the uniform comparison of seismic hazard between these differing fault segments, as well as accounting for individual variations in recurrence time along a specific fault segment, and uncertainties in the determination of the average recurrence time. The definition of specific segments along simple plate boundaries relies on the mapping of earthquake rupture zones as defined by the aftershock distributions of prior large and great earthquakes, and historic descriptions of felt intensities and damage areas. The 96 segments are chosen to represent areas likely to be ruptured by "characteristic" earthquakes of a specified size or magnitude. The term characteristic implies repeated breakage of a plate boundary segment by large or great earthquakes whose source dimensions are similar from cycle to cycle. This definition does not exclude the possibility that occasionally adjacent characteristic earthquake segments may break together in a single, larger event. Conversely, a segment may also break in a series of smaller ruptures. Estimates of recurrence times and conditional probabilities for characteristic earthquakes along segments of simple plate boundaries are based on 1) the historic and instrumental record of large and great earthquake occurrence; 2) paleoseismic evidence of recurrence from radiometric dating of Holocene features produced by earthquakes; 3) direct calculations of recurrence time from the size of the most recent characteristic event and the long-term rates of plate motion assuming the validity of the time-predictable model for earthquake recurrence; and 4) the application of a lognormal distribution for the recurrence times of large and great earthquakes. Time-dependent estimates of seismic potential are based on a physical model of earthquake occurrence which assumes that the probability for an earthquake is low immediately following the occurrence of a characteristic earthquake and increases with time as the stress on the fault segment recovers the stress drop of the event. This study updates earlier work on seismic gaps by explicitly including both recurrence time information and the temporal proximity to the next event as factors in describing earthquake hazards. Currently, 11 out of 96 regions have a high (i.e., ???50%) probability of recurrence during the next 10 years and are characterized by either fairly short (i.e., less than 30-40 years) recurrence times or long elapsed times relative to the average recurrence time. The majority of these segments are located in the southwest Pacific (Vanuatu, New Guinea, and Tonga). When a longer time window is considered (e.g., 20 years or 1989-2009), 30 out of 96 regions have a high potential. Many of these regions are located near areas of high population density. These determinations do not preclude rupture of other fault segments, with less than a 50% chance in 10 or 20 years, or large and great earthquakes in areas we have not studied in detail. While this study has summarized the seismic potential for a large number of regions around the circum-Pacific, there are still a number of geographic and seismotectonic regions that need to be considered, including Indonesia, the Philippines, New Zealand, and the countries that surround the Caribbean basin. ?? 1991 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1989

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1988

Migration of historical earthquakes in California

Most large earthquakes of magnitude ???6.0 in California during 1852-1987 appear to show a southeast-to-northwest tendency of epicenter migration. This finding is consistent with earlier findings of Savage (1971) for a relatively few large earthquakes along the west coast of North America, and of Wood and Allen (1973) for smaller events along the San Andreas fault in central California. The average speed of migration is approximately 130 km/yr, which is within the range of speeds observed for other major seismic zones in the world. The epicenter migration in California may be the result of some small but broad-scaled episodic strain changes associated with creep waves induced by magma injections at the East Pacific Rise and propagating northwestwardly along a broad transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates at subseismogenic depths as proposed by Savage (1971). ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1975

Stable sliding preceding stick-slip on fault surfaces in granite at high pressure

The distance of stable sliding before sudden slip on fault surfaces in granite decreases rapidly as the confining pressure is increased. At a pressure of 6 kb the amount of stable creep is very small or absent. Two orders of magnitude change in strain rate has no effect on the distance of stable sliding. Our results suggest that in the earth, fault creep should predominate in the shallow crust but in the deep crustal layer most of the stresses are probably relieved by sudden earthquake type of motion. Below the crust high temperature would promote stable-slip so in this region creep would once more predominate.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS1975

Two models for earthquake forerunners

Similar precursory phenomena have been observed before earthquakes in the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, and China. Two quite different physical models are used to explain these phenomena. According to a model developed by US seismologists, the so-called dilatancy diffusion model, the earthquake occurs near maximum stress, following a period of dilatant crack expansion. Diffusion of water in and out of the dilatant volume is required to explain the recovery of seismic velocity before the earthquake. According to a model developed by Soviet scientists growth of cracks is also involved but diffusion of water in and out of the focal region is not required. With this model, the earthquake is assumed to occur during a period of falling stress and recovery of velocity here is due to crack closure as stress relaxes. In general, the dilatancy diffusion model gives a peaked precursor form, whereas the dry model gives a bay form, in which recovery is well under way before the earthquake. A number of field observations should help to distinguish between the two models: study of post-earthquake recovery, time variation of stress and pore pressure in the focal region, the occurrence of pre-existing faults, and any changes in direction of precursory phenomena during the anomalous period.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1975

The nature of surface tilt along 85 km of the San Andreas fault-preliminary results form a 14-instrument array

The continuous monitoring of surface deformation near active faults is clearly necessary for an understanding of elastic strain accumulation and elastic and anelastic strain release associated with earthquakes. Fourteen 2-component tiltmeters have been installed in shallow boreholes along 85 km of the currently most active section of the San Andreas fault in the western United States. These instruments operate at a sensitivity of 10 −8 radians. Five of these tiltmeters, extending along one 35 km section of the fault, have been in operation since June 1973. The results indicate that regional tectonic tilting has occurred before more than ten individual earthquakes or groups of earthquakes with epicenters within ten earthquake source dimensions of one or more instruments. This tilting has a time scale of up to a month depending on earthquake magnitude. The amplitude of these tilts exceeds by almost an order of magnitude that expected from a dislocation model of the source using seismically determined parameters. No indication of rapid or accelerated tilt just prior to these earthquakes has been seen.

California↗
USGS1980

Crustal parameters estimated from P-waves of earthquakes recorded at a small array

The P-arrival times of local and regional earthquakes that are outside of a small network of seismometers can be used to interpret crustal parameters beneath the network by employing the time-term technique. Even when the estimate of the refractor velocity is poorly determined, useful estimates of the station time-terms can be made. The method is applied to a 20 km diameter network of eight seismic stations which was operated near Castaic, California, during the winter of 1972-73. The stations were located in sedimentary basins. Beneath the network, the sedimentary rocks of the basins are known to range from 1 to more than 4 km in thickness. Relative time-terms are estimated from P-waves assumed to be propagated by a refractor in the mid-crust, and again from P-waves propagated by a refractor in the upper basement. For the range of velocities reported by others, the two sets of time-terms are very similar. They suggest that both refractors dip to the southwest, and the geology also indicates that the basement dips in this direction. In addition, the P-wave velocity estimated for the refractor of mid-crustal depths, roughly 6.7 km/sec, agrees with values reported by others. Thus, even in this region of complicated geologic structure, the method appears to give realistic results. ?? 1980 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1977

The stress state near Spanish Peaks, colorado determined from a dike pattern

The radial pattern of syenite and syenodiorite dikes of the Spanish Peaks region is analysed using theories of elasticity and dike emplacement. The three basic components of Ode??'s model for the dike pattern (a pressurized, circular hole; a rigid, planar boundary; and uniform regional stresses) are adopted, but modified to free the regional stresses from the constraint of being orthogonal to the rigid boundary. Dike areal density, the White Peaks intrusion, the strike of the upturned Mesozoic strata, and the contact between these strata and the intensely folded and faulted Paleozoic rocks are used to brient the rigid boundary along a north-south line. The line of dike terminations locates the rigid boundary about 8 km west of West Peak. The location of a circular plug, Goemmer Butte, is chosen as a point of isotropic stress. A map correlating the location of isotropic stress points with regional stress parameters is derived from the theory and used to determine a regional stress orientation (N82E) and a normalized stress magnitude. The stress trajectory map constructed using these parameters mimics the dike pattern exceptionally well. The model indicates that the regional principal stress difference was less than 0.05 times the driving pressure in the West Peak intrusion. The regional stress difference probably did not exced 5 MN/m2. ?? 1977 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1977

Preliminary stress measurements in central California using the hydraulic fracturing technique

Use of the hydraulic fracturing technique for determining in situ stress is reviewed, and stress measurements in wells near the towns of Livermore, San Ardo, and Menlo Park, California are described in detail. In the Livermore well, four measurements at depths between 110 and 155 m indicate that the least principal compressive stress is horizontal and increases from 1.62 to 2.66 MPa. The apparent direction of maximum compression is N 70?? E (??40??). At the San Ardo site the least principal stress is that due to the overburden weight. At depths of 240.2 and 270.7 m the minimum and maximum horizontal stresses are estimated to be 11.4 and 22.5 MPa, and 12.0 (??1.1) and 15.8 (??3.3) MPa, respectively. From an impression of the fracture at 240.2 m, the direction of maximum compression appears to be about N 15?? E. The rock in the Menlo Park well is too highly fractured to yield a reliable measurement of the horizontal stresses. The data indicate, however, that the least principal stress is vertical (due to the overburden weight) to a depth of 250 m. ?? 1977 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1977

Shear and tension hydraulic fractures in low permeability rocks

Laboratory hydrofracture experiments were performed on triaxially stressed specimens of oil shale and low-permeability granite. The results show that either shear or tension fractures could develop depending on the level of differentials stress, even in specimens containing preexisting fractures. With 1 kb of confining pressure and differential stress greater than 2kb, hydraulic fluid diffusion into the specimens reduced the effective confining pressure until failure occurred by shear fracture. Below 2kb of differential stress, tension fractures occurred. These results suggest that hydraulic fracturing in regions of significant tectonic stress may produce shear rather than tension fractures. In this case in situ stress determinations based on presumed tension fractures would lead to erroneous results. ?? 1977 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1977

State of stress in the lithosphere: Inferences from the flow laws of olivine

The experimental flow data for rocks and minerals are reviewed and found to fit a law of the form {Mathematical expression} where {Mathematical expression} This law reduces to the familiar power-law stress dependency at low stress and to an exponential stress dependency at high stress. Using the material flow law parameters for olivine, stress profiles with depth and strain rate are computed for a representative range of temperature distributions in the lithosphere. The results show that the upper 15 to 25 km of the oceanic lithosphere must behave elastically or fail by fracture and that the remainder deforms by exponential law flow at intermediate depths and by power-law flow in the rest. A model computation of the gravitational sliding of a lithospheric plate using olivine rheology exhibits a very sharp decoupling zone which is a consequence of the combined effects of increasing stress and temperature on the flow law, which is a very sensitive function of both. ?? 1977 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1988

Spatial variation of crustal coda Q in California

Coda wave data from California microearthquakes were studied in order to delineate regional fluctuations of apparent crustal attenuation in the band 1.5 to 24 Hz. Apparent attenuation was estimated using a single back scattering model of coda waves. The coda wave data were restricted to ???30 s following the origin time; this insures that crustal effects dominate the results as the backscattered shear waves thought to form the coda would not have had time to penetrate much deeper. Results indicate a strong variation in apparent crustal attenuation at high frequencies between the Franciscan and Salinian regions of central California and the Long Valley area of the Sierra Nevada. Although the coda Q measurements coincide at 1.5 Hz (Qc=100), at 24 Hz there is a factor of four difference between the measurements made in Franciscan (Qc=525) and Long Valley (Qc=2100) with the Salinian midway between (Qc=900). These are extremely large variations compared to measures of seismic velocities of comparable resolution, demonstrating the exceptional sensitivity of the high frequency coda Q measurement to regional geology. In addition, the frequency trend of the results is opposite to that seen in a compilation of coda Q measurements made worldwide by other authors which tend to converge at high and diverge at low frequencies, however, the worldwide results generally were obtained without limiting the coda lengths and probably reflect upper mantle rather than crustal properties. Our results match those expected due to scattering in random media represented by Von Karman autocorrelation functions of orders 1/2 to 1/3. The Von Karman medium of order 1/3 corresponding to the Franciscan coda Q measurement contains greater amounts of high wavenumber fluctuations. This indicates relatively large medium fluctuations with wavelengths on the order of 100 m in the highly deformed crust associated with the Franciscan, however, the influence of scattering on the coda Q measurement is currently a matter of controversy.

California↗
USGS1988

The information content of high-frequency seismograms and the near-surface geologic structure of "hard rock" recording sites

Due to hardware developments in the last decade, the high-frequency end of the frequency band of seismic waves analyzed for source mechanisms has been extended into the audio-frequency range (>20 Hz). In principle, the short wavelengths corresponding to these frequencies can provide information about the details of seismic sources, but in fact, much of the "signal" is the site response of the nearsurface. Several examples of waveform data recorded at "hard rock" sites, which are generally assumed to have a "flat" transfer function, are presented to demonstrate the severe signal distortions, including fmax, produced by near-surface structures. Analysis of the geology of a number of sites indicates that the overall attenuation of high-frequency (>1 Hz) seismic waves is controlled by the whole-path-Q between source and receiver but the presence of distinct fmax site resonance peaks is controlled by the nature of the surface layer and the underlying near-surface structure. Models of vertical decoupling of the surface and nearsurface and horizontal decoupling of adjacent sites on hard rock outcrops are proposed and their behaviour is compared to the observations of hard rock site response. The upper bound to the frequency band of the seismic waves that contain significant source information which can be deconvolved from a site response or an array response is discussed in terms of fmax and the correlation of waveform distortion with the outcrop-scale geologic structure of hard rock sites. It is concluded that although the velocity structures of hard rock sites, unlike those of alluvium sites, allow some audio-frequency seismic energy to propagate to the surface, the resulting signals are a highly distorted, limited subset of the source spectra. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS2003

Volcano seismology

A fundamental goal of volcano seismology is to understand active magmatic systems, to characterize the configuration of such systems, and to determine the extent and evolution of source regions of magmatic energy. Such understanding is critical to our assessment of eruptive behavior and its hazardous impacts. With the emergence of portable broadband seismic instrumentation, availability of digital networks with wide dynamic range, and development of new powerful analysis techniques, rapid progress is being made toward a synthesis of high-quality seismic data to develop a coherent model of eruption mechanics. Examples of recent advances are: (1) high-resolution tomography to image subsurface volcanic structures at scales of a few hundred meters; (2) use of small-aperture seismic antennas to map the spatio-temporal properties of long-period (LP) seismicity; (3) moment tensor inversions of very-long-period (VLP) data to derive the source geometry and mass-transport budget of magmatic fluids; (4) spectral analyses of LP events to determine the acoustic properties of magmatic and associated hydrothermal fluids; and (5) experimental modeling of the source dynamics of volcanic tremor. These promising advances provide new insights into the mechanical properties of volcanic fluids and subvolcanic mass-transport dynamics. As new seismic methods refine our understanding of seismic sources, and geochemical methods better constrain mass balance and magma behavior, we face new challenges in elucidating the physico-chemical processes that cause volcanic unrest and its seismic and gas-discharge manifestations. Much work remains to be done toward a synthesis of seismological, geochemical, and petrological observations into an integrated model of volcanic behavior. Future important goals must include: (1) interpreting the key types of magma movement, degassing and boiling events that produce characteristic seismic phenomena; (2) characterizing multiphase fluids in subvolcanic regimes and determining their physical and chemical properties; and (3) quantitatively understanding multiphase fluid flow behavior under dynamic volcanic conditions. To realize these goals, not only must we learn how to translate seismic observations into quantitative information about fluid dynamics, but we also must determine the underlying physics that governs vesiculation, fragmentation, and the collapse of bubble-rich suspensions to form separate melt and vapor. Refined understanding of such processes—essential for quantitative short-term eruption forecasts—will require multidisciplinary research involving detailed field measurements, laboratory experiments, and numerical modeling.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS2002

Simulations of seismic hazard for the Pacific Northwest of the United States from earthquakes associated with the Cascadia subduction zone

We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS2003

Erosion and sedimentation from the 17 July, 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami

This paper describes erosion and sedimentation associated with the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami. Observed within two months of the tsunami, distinct deposits of a layer averaging 8-cm thick of gray sand rested on a brown muddy soil. In most cases the sand is normally graded, with more coarse sand near the base and fine sand at the top. In some cases the deposit contains rip-up clasts of muddy soil and in some locations it has a mud cap. Detailed measurements of coastal topography, tsunami flow height and direction indicators, and deposit thickness were made in the field, and samples of the deposit were collected for grain-size analysis in the laboratory. Four shore-normal transects were examined in detail to assess the shore-normal and along shore distribution of the tsunami deposit. Near the shoreline, the tsunami eroded approximately 10-25 cm of sand from the beach and berm. The sandy layer deposited by the tsunami began 50-150 m inland from the shoreline and extended across the coastal plain to within about 40 m of the limit of inundation; a total distance of up to 750 m from the beach. As much as 2/3 of the sand in the deposit originated from offshore. Across most of the coastal plain the deposit thickness and mean grain size varied little. In the along-shore direction the deposit thickness varied with the tsunami wave height; both largest near the entrance to Sissano Lagoon.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS2004

Numerical simulations of large earthquakes: Dynamic rupture propagation on heterogeneous faults

Our current conceptions of earthquake rupture dynamics, especially for large earthquakes, require knowledge of the geometry of the faults involved in the rupture, the material properties of the rocks surrounding the faults, the initial state of stress on the faults, and a constitutive formulation that determines when the faults can slip. In numerical simulations each of these factors appears to play a significant role in rupture propagation, at the kilometer length scale. Observational evidence of the earth indicates that at least the first three of the elements, geometry, material, and stress, can vary over many scale dimensions. Future research on earthquake rupture dynamics needs to consider at which length scales these features are significant in affecting rupture propagation. ?? Birkha??user Verlag, Basel, 2004.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
USGS2006

Estimating crustal heterogeneity from double-difference tomography

Seismic velocity parameters in limited, but heterogeneous volumes can be inferred using a double-difference tomographic algorithm, but to obtain meaningful results accuracy must be maintained at every step of the computation. MONTEILLER et al. (2005) have devised a double-difference tomographic algorithm that takes full advantage of the accuracy of cross-spectral time-delays of large correlated event sets. This algorithm performs an accurate computation of theoretical travel-time delays in heterogeneous media and applies a suitable inversion scheme based on optimization theory. When applied to Kilauea Volcano, in Hawaii, the double-difference tomography approach shows significant and coherent changes to the velocity model in the well-resolved volumes beneath the Kilauea caldera and the upper east rift. In this paper, we first compare the results obtained using MONTEILLER et al.'s algorithm with those obtained using the classic travel-time tomographic approach. Then, we evaluated the effect of using data series of different accuracies, such as handpicked arrival-time differences ("picking differences"), on the results produced by double-difference tomographic algorithms. We show that picking differences have a non-Gaussian probability density function (pdf). Using a hyperbolic secant pdf instead of a Gaussian pdf allows improvement of the double-difference tomographic result when using picking difference data. We completed our study by investigating the use of spatially discontinuous time-delay data. ?? Birkha??user Verlag, Basel, 2006.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗