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USGS2026

Assessing the state of hydrologic science in the Upper Klamath Basin—A comprehensive review of data, tools, and models

Water demand in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) from various stakeholders and ecological needs often outstrips available supply, leading to persistent management challenges. This study reviews the state of hydrologic science within the UKB as of 2025—specifically, the tools, data, and models available for assessing five key components of the water system: (1) surface water; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) groundwater; and (5) water use. The UKB water supply is critical for Native American communities, regional agriculture, and federally listed fishes and faces challenges from competing needs, climate variability, and operational/regulatory requirements. We assess existing datasets, regional and national models, and historical studies to understand the available resources and identify gaps that may hinder integrated water assessments and management. Our findings indicate areas where improvements in data collection and model precision could improve the accuracy of water-availability forecasts and support water-management practices. This review can inform near-term forecasting, assist in optimizing water-resource data collection and management strategies, and support regional water-availability assessments of the basin.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Quantifying Chinook Salmon habitat across flow regimes: High resolution modeling in Oregon’s Willamette River basin

The Santiam and McKenzie River basins of western Oregon provide critical habitat for federally listed Upper Willamette River Spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Streamflows in each basin are regulated in part by high-head multi-purpose dams; however, quantitative linkages between regulated streamflows and downstream habitat for juvenile and adult Chinook salmon remain limited. This study integrates high-resolution topo-bathymetric lidar, two-dimensional hydraulic models, and novel detailed sediment distribution models to evaluate habitat across a range of flows for over 400 river km. Results suggest that habitat quantity for two juvenile life stages (fry and parr) differs in response to streamflow; fry habitat appears to be relatively insensitive to streamflow, except in the downstream-most reaches of each river, while parr habitat generally increases from low to moderate flows, yet decreases at higher flows. Spawning habitat is largely inversely related to streamflow and is primarily limited by suitable substrate availability, likely reflecting sediment retention effects of upstream dams. Additionally, streamflow thresholds were identified where redd desiccation risk increases significantly with declining streamflow. These findings provide managers with spatially explicit tools to evaluate flow management tradeoffs during critical rearing and spawning periods and provide insights into habitat dynamics in large, regulated rivers. This work demonstrates how high-resolution modeling can support quantification of habitat at the landscape level.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Quantifying Landsat’s contributions to U.S. agricultural and forestry applications

The Landsat program has provided over 54 years of multispectral imagery, contributing vital information for agricultural and forestry scientific research and operational activities. Freely available Landsat data have enabled scientists to analyze land use patterns, assess ecological impacts, and develop strategies for sustainable management. We explored Landsat’s pivotal role through the lens of the United States Group on Earth Observations 2023 Earth Observation Assessment (EOA). The EOA included comprehensive surveys of more than 2000 federally supported Earth observation data products. We subsequently analyzed how Landsat satellite data and derived products support agricultural and forestry-related priorities compared to other Earth observation inputs. We evaluated both direct and indirect applications of the data, identifying key users across federal agencies and assessing how Landsat data contribute to critical products, services, and objectives. The results indicate that Landsat provides key information to support diverse activities across agriculture and forestry sectors, such as enhancing food supply, improving resilience to disaster and disturbance events, maximizing ecosystem productivity and conservation, and supporting regulatory requirements and decision-making. The Landsat OLI and TIRS sensors ranked 4th and 10th, respectively, out of 1171 Earth observation inputs identified in the study, underscoring their value to agriculture and forestry.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2026

Continental-scale prediction of hydrologic signatures and processes

Understanding how dominant hydrologic processes and their drivers vary across diverse continental-scale landscapes is critical for hydrologic modeling and water management applications. Our research addresses this question by synthesizing large-sample watershed datasets, Caravan and GAGES-II, and developing random forest models to identify patterns in hydrologic function. We assessed dominant processes by examining hydrologic signatures – summary indicators of watershed function derived from hydroclimatic time series and random forest models across 14 146 gauged United States watersheds. The results reveal clear continental-scale gradients in hydrologic processes, including baseflow, overland flow, storage, and water balance losses. Our map of dominant processes highlights, for example, the transition from baseflow to fast responses and back to baseflow along the elevation gradient from the Appalachian spine, through the Piedmont, to the Eastern Coastal Plain; a distinct outer ring around the Great Lakes region; and sharp contrasts between coastal and inland processes in the West. Variable importance analysis from random forest models show that processes in the western U.S. are primarily controlled by climate, whereas in the eastern U.S., soil, geology, and topography play larger roles, with distinct human influences apparent in urban areas. Our approach of estimating dominant processes and their drivers facilitates extending process knowledge from research watersheds to the continental scale, assessing current hydrological understanding, and evaluating hydrological model structures.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Bright spot in eDNA monitoring: Early detection of invasive New Zealand mudsnails (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) prompted effective rapid response for fish hatchery

The New Zealand mudsnail (NZMS; Potamopyrgus antipodarum ) is a widespread aquatic invasive species that is parthenogenic, requiring only a single individual to initiate an infestation. Fish hatcheries–which are critical infrastructure that raise fish to support conservation, recreation, and subsistence fisheries–frequently use local water sources to provide cool water and are especially vulnerable to NZMS invasion from the contamination of water supplies. If an invasion proceeds undetected, hatcheries pose a risk for compounding the spread of NZMS because their operations transfer live organisms and associated water between hatchery facilities and, when stocking, to rivers and lakes. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Alchesay National Fish Hatchery, located on the Fort Apache Indian Reservation in Whiteriver, Arizona, produces trout to stock in Tribal reservoirs, lakes, and rivers across the southwestern U.S. New Zealand mudsnails were first documented in Arizona in 1995, are now widespread in this region, and occur at the confluence of the hatchery's outflow with the North Fork White River. Contamination of water supplies is the principal pathway for NZMS invasion into the hatchery. Here, we describe early detection environmental DNA (eDNA) surveillance efforts for NZMS at Alchesay National Fish Hatchery. Positive eDNA detections initiated a chain of events that ultimately led to four NZMS individuals being discovered and a rapid response eradication effort. Follow-up eDNA sampling and visual observation efforts after the eradication effort have yielded no detections of NZMS eDNA. We credit the success of this case with four key elements: rapid turnaround times, a robust quality assurance scheme, a proactive eDNA sampling design, and established partnerships. To our knowledge, this is the first published case of eDNA monitoring being used for early detection and successful rapid response for complete removal of an invasive species in a fish hatchery.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

Rain interacts with directional wind to cause nest failures within breeding colonies of Western and Clark's Grebes

Western Grebe ( Aechmophorus occidentalis ) and Clark's Grebe ( Aechmophorus clarkii ) populations have declined across their range, and they are species of high conservation concern. Cascade Reservoir in central Idaho supports one of the largest breeding colonies of Aechmophorus grebes in North America (and the largest in Idaho), but few offspring are produced from the colony in most years. Low fecundity and little natal recruitment may be the proximate cause of Aechmophorus grebe population declines, but the ultimate cause of low recruitment is not known. One hypothesis for the low fecundity at Cascade Reservoir (and at other grebe colonies in the region) is that waves on freshwater breeding lakes inundate nests and cause pairs to abandon their nests. We tested that hypothesis by examining whether nest survival was negatively associated with changes in daily water level, daily peak wind speed and daily peak wind direction (i.e. winds that push water into the breeding colony). We also included daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation to evaluate a more general hypothesis that weather events caused nest failures. We used aerial imagery obtained from repeated drone flights to create encounter histories for 3888 Aechmophorus grebe nests to then estimate daily nest survival and evaluate whether daily water level, daily peak wind speed and daily peak wind direction (as predicted by the wind-driven wave hypothesis) were important causes of nest failure relative to other factors that commonly affect daily nest survival in birds. Nesting success was alarmingly low and we found some support for the wave inundation hypothesis; the results suggest that nesting attempts are more likely to fail on days with precipitation combined with winds blowing into the colony. Our results are the first to show that wind and precipitation affect the nest fate of Aechmophorus grebes.

Idaho↗
USGS2026

Assessment of Chinook Salmon smolt survival at offsite release locations in the Sacramento River across wet and dry years

We used acoustic telemetry to estimate survival of tagged release groups, and quantify differences between alternative hatchery release strategies. To assess whether offsite release could increase survival of hatchery fish relative to those released at the hatchery, we compare survival during emigration of hatchery fall Chinook Salmon (FCS, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts released onsite, at Coleman National Fish Hatchery (NFH), to those released at alternative offsite locations downstream in the upper Sacramento River, California. Approximately 300 fish in each release group were implanted with acoustic tags in the 3-year study during 2019, 2021, and 2022. Environmental conditions in the emigration corridor varied between study years, with extended high flows in 2019, whereas drought conditions and a flat hydrograph occurred in 2021 and 2022. Survival across years appeared to reflect environmental conditions, with higher overall survival seen in 2019. Survival differences between release sites generally showed higher cumulative survival to Knights Landing or Chipps Island for the downstream release groups, compared to the onsite releases during 2021 and 2022. This information suggests hatchery releases of FCS from Coleman NFH at downstream release sites may benefit emigration survival during years of drought and sub-optimal in-river conditions, compared to standard onsite releases. Hatchery managers can use information from this study to diversify the portfolio of release strategies, which may be useful to buffer against extreme variations of adult abundance by spreading risks across space and time. Ultimately, offsite releases may be a useful tool for adaptive management of these culturally, ecologically, and economically important salmon populations.

California↗
USGS2026

Differences among runs of Chinook Salmon in routing probability at the Georgiana Slough-Sacramento River junction

The survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) depends on the specific migration route they take through the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Factors such as flow magnitude, flow direction, and distribution of fish across the channel significantly affect the likelihood of their entering routes with lower survival probabilities. Management strategies to mitigate the entry of endangered winter-run and threatened spring-run Chinook Salmon into the interior Delta—particularly through Georgiana Slough—involve flow regulation and the installation of a bioacoustic fish fence. Monitoring the effectiveness of these measures has primarily relied on acoustically-tagged, juvenile, hatchery-reared, late-fall-run Chinook Salmon, which are easier to obtain and can accommodate larger tags compared to other runs. Previous studies explored how flow dynamics affect routing probabilities of late-fall-run Chinook Salmon, but there is a lack of understanding about how routing probabilities vary among runs. We leveraged data from 15 previous studies comprising 3,004 acoustically-tagged fish across all four runs, over a 12-year period, to assess the effects of run on routing probability into Georgiana Slough, while accounting for variation in flow dynamics. We employed logistic regression to model the influence of tidal flow metrics, time of day (day and night), and run type on the probability of juvenile Chinook Salmon being routed into Georgiana Slough. Our analysis revealed that reverse flow during incoming tides influenced the routing probabilities of all runs. An increased proportion of flow into Georgiana Slough, meant an increased probability for all runs to be routed into Georgiana Slough. Late-fall-run Chinook Salmon also showed a greater probability of routing into Georgiana Slough during the night than during the day, whereas the opposite was true for other runs. These differences in routing probability affect our understanding of how management actions intended to reduce routing into Georgiana Slough may differentially affect the four runs of Chinook Salmon in the Sacramento River.

Callifornia↗
USGS2026

Paleocene-Eocene dinoflagellate biostratigraphy in the central Delaware coastal plain

Dinoflagellate cyst palynology and lithostratigraphy from three continuously cored boreholes (Blackbird, Smyrna, and Woodland Beach), supplemented by calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic data, were used to refine the age and correlation of three Paleocene-Eocene formations in northern Delaware: the Vincentown, Manasquan, and Shark River. Lithologic logs reveal significant facies changes in the upper Paleocene Vincentown Formation over a short distance (*9 km) southeastward, transitioning from very permeable glauconite-quartz-shell-rich sands that form the regionally important Rancocas/Aquia aquifer to much less permeable muddy sands and sandy muds. These lithologic changes represent a shift from nearshore, clear, warm-water, carbonate-rich sand shoals to mud-dominated deeper-water, offshore shelfal environments. Dinocyst assemblages including Areoligera gippingensis, Cribroperidinium giuseppei, and Stenodinium meckelfeldensis confirm the Paleogene ages and track these paleoceanographic changes from shallow coastal settings updip to neritic or outer marine settings downdip. The Vincentown Formation is unconformably overlain by the lower Eocene Manasquan Formation, which consists predominantly of silt and clay with relatively consistent lithology across the study area, representing general neritic or open marine conditions. Lithology, dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, and calcareous nannofossil data indicate that the Marlboro Clay and its record of the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) global warming event is absent from the Paleocene-Eocene transition at these sites, with an unconformity marking the boundary between the Vincentown and Manasquan formations. The youngest unit examined, the Eocene Shark River Formation, unconformably overlies the Manasquan Formation and consists of interbedded clayey silts and sands, with dinoflagellate assemblages suggesting a return to coastal or inner neritic settings. Calcareous nannofossil zones recognized from the Woodland Beach core corroborate the depositional ages determined using dinoflagellates throughout the sequence, confirming the chronostratigraphic framework for these important coastal plain units.

Delaware↗
USGS2026

Ecosystem metabolism as an early warning indicator of lake algal blooms

Algal blooms represent ecosystem state shifts that degrade drinking water, restrict recreation, threaten public health, and lower property values. Detecting blooms in advance on management relevant timescales of days to weeks can support proactive intervention. Early warning statistics derived from indicator time series offer a framework for detecting state shifts, but the use of lake metabolic estimates (gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production) in this context has been limited. Here, we modeled lake metabolism using water-quality monitoring data from eight U.S. lakes spanning a trophic gradient to test the hypothesis that metabolic estimates serve as effective early warning indicators of algal blooms. Time series of early warning statistics were analyzed using the conventional Kendall’s tau approach and a complementary threshold-based approach. The threshold-based approach yielded higher bloom detection rates, longer early warning lead times, and fewer false alarms than the Kendall’s tau approach. Across lakes, metabolic metrics detected 86% of blooms, with the strongest early warning signals in oligotrophic, eutrophic, and hypereutrophic systems. However, directly measured water-quality parameters, particularly water temperature and chlorophyll concentration, were the primary early warning indicators of blooms. Overall, these results demonstrate that metabolic estimates can provide early warning signals of bloom development but are secondary to directly measured water-quality parameters, indicating a complementary rather than primary role in early bloom detection.

EarthArXiv↗
USGS2026

Field methods, quality-assurance, and data management plan for water-quality activities and water-level measurements, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

Introduction Water-quality activities and water-level measurements conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Project Office coincide with the USGS mission of evaluating the quantity and quality of the Nation’s water resources. The activities are conducted in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Idaho Operations Office. Results of water-quality and hydraulic head research efforts are presented in various USGS and scientific journal publications (refer to Fisher, 2022). These data are stored internally in the Aquarius Time Series and Aquarius Samples databases and are publicly accessible through National Water Quality Monitoring Council (2025) and U.S. Geological Survey (2025). Data collected from our studies are used by researchers, Federal and State agencies, water management and regulatory organizations, as well as the public. This quality assurance plan (QAP) describes the methods and processes for field methods, data collection, data management, data auditing, and equipment management for both the water-quality and water-level programs at the USGS INL Project Office (hereto referred to as INL Project Office). A comprehensive quality assurance (QA) plan ensures that the processes defined in this document will guide the program staff to collect and publish reliable, useful, and defensible data products for stakeholders. This QAP supersedes previous versions of this document and is intended to complement the Quality Assurance and Data Management (QADM) Plan for the Idaho Water Science Center (IDWSC; Christopher Mebane and Lauren Zinsser, written commun., 2024).

Idaho↗
USGS2026

Drought on the fly: UAS mapping of conifer drought stress

Foliar moisture content (FMC) plays a crucial role in arid, frequent-fire forests by influencing fire behavior, tree survival, and serving as a proxy for tree health. Management actions such as mechanical thinning, flammable fuels reduction, and prescribed fires can act to mitigate wildfire risk and improve forest health by reducing fuel connectivity, diversifying forest structure, and creating canopy gaps. These management actions could be improved by the targeted removal of moisture stressed and potentially more flammable trees during treatments. However, maps of FMC are not widely available at the tree-level, with no existing products to map FMC of western conifers at the stand-level (< 0.25 m). This project focuses on the scalability of laboratory-developed models predicting sapling FMC to develop and assess tree-level FMC in natural forest conditions. Specifically, we tested whether existing FMC models accurately predict individual tree FMC using uncrewed aerial system (UAS) data. While laboratory-developed models did not translate well to field sites, a field-developed model achieved a mean absolute error of 6.5% FMC and 81% of predictions were within 10% FMC of the observed value. In ranking the observed and predicted FMC values, the field model successfully classified trees into FMC categories with up to 85.9% accuracy. This successful classification demonstrates the utility of UAS-based FMC mapping to inform management prescriptions. Integrating UAS-derived FMC monitoring into forest management could enhance forest resilience and adaptive capacity.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Long lives, short futures: Freshwater turtle and tortoise imports to the United States highlight global trade and conservation challenges

Global trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises presents substantial conservation, biosecurity, and regulatory challenges, particularly for long-lived species that are already highly imperiled. While the United States has historically played a key role in supplying the international chelonian trade, investigations into its role as an importer remain limited. We used import data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) between 2000 and 2022 to evaluate the trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises. Over 2.5 million individuals were imported into the United States during this period, comprising 172 species that are likely imported for the pet trade, food, and traditional medicine markets. Reported annual imports for freshwater turtles increased until approximately 2013 and decreased thereafter, whereas reported annual imports for tortoises have remained relatively constant. Two species, Chinese softshell turtles ( Pelodiscus sinensis ) and Horsfield's tortoises ( Testudo horsfieldii ) represent 62.9% of all imports. Imported species were largely classified as Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List, yet the conservation status of a concerning number of species ( n = 45; 26.2%) has not been evaluated. Many imports appear to be sourced from wild populations (28.3% of freshwater turtles, 71.3% of tortoises); however, captive-sourced imports increased significantly over time across both groups. Import volumes raise concerns regarding the sustainability of freshwater turtle and tortoise trade, the potential for invasive species establishment, and disease spread. Our results highlight the need for updated IUCN assessments, verification of trade records, and strengthening of biosecurity screening at U.S. ports of entry.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2026

Potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin over multiple centuries identified using tree-ring based multi-model streamflow reconstructions

The Missouri River basin (MRB), the largest river basin in the United States, presents major water management challenges due to its complex topology and extensive infrastructure designed to manage high annual flows. Severe hydroclimatic events, particularly floods in 1993, 2011, and 2019, have highlighted vulnerabilities, leading the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to enhance flood risk assessments in 2023. This study focuses on the full MRB, using tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions to extend the Basin's historic streamflow perspective. We developed annual streamflow reconstructions for the Hermann, Missouri streamgage from water years 1360–1900 using K-nearest neighbor and principal component regression methods. These reconstructions incorporate 183 tree-ring chronologies (1360–2020) and modeled natural streamflow (1901–‍2020). Reconstructions were evaluated for consistency using statistical measures and wavelet analysis. Both methods produced similar results, confirming their reliability in reconstructing multi-century streamflows. This novel methodology, guided by wavelet analysis, was developed to identify potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin (LMRB), resulting in the identification of 172 potential flood events from water years 1360–2020, with 126 events common to the two versions of the MRB reconstructions. The reconstructed streamflow records showed an increase in the number of events until the late-18th- or mid-19th-century. These findings provide insights into evolving flood characteristics in the LMRB. The novel methodology developed in this study can be used to identify potential flood events from tree-ring based annual streamflow reconstructions and generally be applicable to other river basins.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wyomin↗
USGS2026

Benchmark dataset of historical annual peak floods classified by causal mechanisms for select US river basins

Considering the causal mechanisms of floods can improve estimates of flood recurrence intervals given that certain flood types can be associated with higher magnitude and more damaging floods. However, few verified datasets of flood types are available to validate the semiautomated and automated classification algorithms needed to apply flood-typing across large hydrologically diverse regions. To address this gap, a benchmark dataset of manually classified flood types was compiled for 1,763 annual maximum flood peaks from 18 stream gauges in six different river basins across the conterminous United States from 1851 to 2022. Within each basin, three representative stream gauges were selected for manual flood typing. A flexible classification framework is introduced that facilitates flood typing across hydrologically diverse regions and accommodates unique combinations of weather and antecedent watershed conditions specific to each region. Floods were manually typed by domain experts using multiple lines of evidence to identify a primary surface water input of each flood (rainfall, snowmelt, or both) and, if relevant, associated storm type and secondary causal mechanisms characterizing antecedent watershed conditions. Across all the study basins, 49% of historical annual maximum flood peaks were attributable to rainfall, 28% to snowmelt, 22% to mixed precipitation, and 1% could not be assigned to a mechanism due to missing or incomplete data. The proposed flood-typing schema supports varying levels of flood typing specificity required for mixed population flood-frequency analysis, flood-type-specific design hydrographs, water quality response studies, and additional applications. This detailed, manually determined benchmark dataset serves as a resource that can be used developing and validating automated or machine learning-based algorithms capable of operationalizing expanded flood peak information.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Lessons learned from a hybrid approach to collecting user feedback on coastal science products

Science products play a critical role in assisting environmental decision-makers to manage coastal systems; yet there are challenges to developing products that align with needs of end-users. By combining aspects of usability testing and contextual inquiry methods, we describe a hybrid approach for collecting user feedback, especially applicable within the federal government context. This paper presents results of this hybrid testing approach on two of U.S. Geological Survey’s science products, the Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) and Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA). Both science products synthesize coastal hazard exposure at different geographies and scales. By comparing two science products in different stages of development, we identify common usability issues across both products; the importance of defining a target audience; requested functionalities beyond the products’ scope; and the effect of previous stakeholder engagement on how testers describe technical issues and barriers. Results from user feedback contribute to understanding needs and barriers of coastal decision-makers for science product development. This paper broadens the understanding of environmental decision-makers in the science product development cycle, and how social dimensions can be integrated in project design through iteratively working with end-users and product developers. Further, we present general lessons in usability for development cycles and how these lessons can inform development of actionable science products in coastal management.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2026

Modeling the temperature-mediated link between demography and biomass in ectotherms

Population models can forecast the effects of environmental change, disturbance, and management decisions on populations of interest. Most population models focus on abundance of individuals, but biomass may be a more relevant quantity at the community or ecosystem scale, especially when investigating interaction of multiple stressors and cross-ecosystem energy flows. We developed a stage-structured population model that integrates a temperature-mediated tradeoff between development rate and final body size of invertebrates, allowing projection of both population size and standing stock biomass in ecosystems that experience disturbances. We parameterized the model for four aquatic invertebrate life-history types spanning a range of lifespan and susceptibility to disturbance. We observed several emergent properties typical of invertebrate populations but not explicitly included in the model, including self-organization of cohort structure under seasonal environments, a tradeoff between lifespan duration and rate of post-disturbance population recovery, and chaotic population dynamics under high growth rates. Sensitivity analysis revealed that although elevated mean temperature increased population size, total population biomass remained unchanged or even decreased due to declining individual biomass, which has implications for ecosystem processes under a changing climate. The seasonal timing of disturbance showed a strong interaction with temperature regime, with summer versus winter pulse disturbances affecting biomass and abundance in characteristically different ways. Linking invertebrate abundance and biomass dynamics to abiotic drivers through this time-varying matrix population model reveals how life-history shapes aquatic invertebrate response to shifting seasons, temperatures, and disturbance, which is key to understanding the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2026

Availability of dark daytime refuge may limit mysid abundance in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The zooplankton Mysis diluviana is a major component of the Laurentian Great Lakes food web and has recently declined in abundance in both lakes Michigan and Huron. Drivers of these declines are not well understood. Here, we explore the hypothesis that recent increases in water clarity have contributed to the decline of M. diluviana (mysids) by limiting the availability of daytime dark refuge from visual predators. Using Secchi depth data from 1996 to 2021, we estimate that dark refuge has decreased substantially in lakes Michigan and Huron where mysids have declined, but dark refuge has remained more stable in lakes Ontario and Superior where mysid populations did not decline. Results from a 2021 uncrewed surface vessel hydroacoustic survey and lake-wide, net-based sampling in lakes Michigan and Huron revealed significantly more mysids in areas with dark refuge, such as Lake Michigan’s northern basin. Conversely, Lake Huron contains sparse dark refuge consistent with low mysid densities in that lake. Higher water clarity leading to increased predation may be a primary driver of mysid declines in the Great Lakes.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗