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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
USGS1989

A general method for generating bathymetric data for hydrodynamic computer models

To generate water depth data from randomly distributed bathymetric data for numerical hydrodymamic models, raw input data from field surveys, water depth data digitized from nautical charts, or a combination of the two are sorted to given an ordered data set on which a search algorithm is used to isolate data for interpolation. Water depths at locations required by hydrodynamic models are interpolated from the bathymetric data base using linear or cubic shape functions used in the finite-element method. The bathymetric database organization and preprocessing, the search algorithm used in finding the bounding points for interpolation, the mathematics of the interpolation formulae, and the features of the automatic generation of water depths at hydrodynamic model grid points are included in the analysis. This report includes documentation of two computer programs which are used to: (1) organize the input bathymetric data; and (2) to interpolate depths for hydrodynamic models. An example of computer program operation is drawn from a realistic application to the San Francisco Bay estuarine system. (Author 's abstract)

Open-File Report↗
USGS2000

Proposal and work plan to calibrate and verify a water-quality model to simulate effects of wastewater discharges to the Red River of the North at drought streamflow near Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota

This report presents a proposal for conducting a water-quality modeling study at drought streamflow, a detailed comprehensive plan for collecting the data, and an annual drought-formation monitoring plan. A 30.8 mile reach of the Red River of the North receives treated wastewater from plants at Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota, and streamflow from the Sheyenne River. The water-quality modeling study will evaluate the effects of continuous treated-wastewater discharges to the study reach at drought streamflow. The study will define hydraulic characteristics and reaeration and selected reaction coefficients and will calibrate and verity a model. The study includes collecting synoptic water-quality samples for various types of analyses at a number of sites in the study reach. Dye and gas samples will be collected for traveltime and reaeration measurements. Using the Lagrangian reference frame, synoptic water-quality samples will be collected for analysis of nutrients, chlorophyll a, alkalinity, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Field measurements will be made of specific conductance, pH, air and water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment oxygen demand. Two sets of water-quality data will be collected. One data set will be used to calibrate the model, and the other data set will be used to verity the model. The DAFLOW/BLTM models will be used to evaluate the effects of the treated wastewater on the water quality of the river. The model will simulate specific conductance, temperature, dissolved oxygen, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen (organic, ammonia, nitrite, nitrate), total orthophosphorus, total phosphorus, and phytoplankton as chlorophyll a. The work plan identifies and discusses the work elements needed for accomplishing the data collection for the study. The work elements specify who will provide personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies needed during data collection. The work plan contains instructions for data collection; inventory lists of needed personnel, vehicles, instruments, and supplies; and examples of computations for determining quantities of tracer to be injected into the stream. The work plan also contains an annual drought-formation monitoring plan that includes a 9-month time line that specifies when essential planning actions must occur before actual project start up. Drought streamflows are rare. The annual drought-formation monitoring plan is presented to assist project planning by providing early warning that conditions are favorable to produce drought streamflow. The plan to monitor drought-forming conditions discusses the drought indices to be monitored. To establish a baseline, historic values for some of the drought indices for selected years were reviewed. An annual review of the drought indices is recommended.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

Estimating total human-caused mortality from reported mortality using data from radio-instrumented grizzly bears

Tracking mortality of the Yellowstone grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) is an essential issue of the recovery process. Problem bears removed by agencies are well documented. Deaths of radiocollared bears are known or, in many cases, can be reliably inferred. Additionally, the public reports an unknown proportion of deaths of uncollared bears. Estimating the number of non-agency human-caused mortalities is a necessary element that must be factored into the total annual mortality. Here, we describe a method of estimating the number of such deaths from records of reported human-caused bear mortalities. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model with a non-informative prior distribution for the number of deaths. Estimates of reporting rates developed from deaths of radio-instrumented bears from 1983 to 2000 were used to develop beta prior probability distributions that the public will report a death. Twenty-seven known deaths of radio-instrumented bears occurred during this period with 16 reported. Additionally, fates of 23 radio-instrumented bears were unknown and are considered possible unreported mortalities. We describe 3 ways of using this information to specify prior distributions on the probability a death will be reported by the public. We estimated total deaths of noninstrumented bears in running 3-year periods from 1993 to 2000. Thirty-nine known deaths of non-instrumented bears were reported during this period, ranging from 0 to 7/year. Seven possible mortalities were recorded. We applied the method to both sets of mortality data. Results from this method can be combined with agency removals and deaths of collared bears to produce defensible estimates of total mortality over relevant periods and to incorporate uncertainty when evaluating mortality limits established for the Yellowstone grizzly bear population. Assumptions and limitations of this procedure are discussed.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2010

Revised Subsurface Stratigraphic Framework of the Fort Union and Wasatch Formations, Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana

Described in this report is an updated subsurface stratigraphic framework of the Paleocene Fort Union Formation and Eocene Wasatch Formation in the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming and Montana. This framework is graphically presented in 17 intersecting west-east and north-south cross sections across the basin. Also included are: (1) the dataset and all associated digital files and (2) digital files for all figures and table 1 suitable for large-format printing. The purpose of this U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Report is to provide rapid dissemination and accessibility of the stratigraphic cross sections and related digital data to USGS customers, especially the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM), to facilitate their modeling of the hydrostratigraphy of the PRB. This report contains a brief summary of the coal-bed correlations and database, and is part of a larger ongoing study that will be available in the near future.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

A comparison of three federal datasets for thermoelectric water withdrawals in the United States for 2010

Historically, thermoelectric water withdrawal has been estimated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) water-use compilations. Recently, the USGS developed models for estimating withdrawal at thermoelectric plants to provide estimates independent from plant operator-reported withdrawal data. This article compares three federal datasets of thermoelectric withdrawals for the United States in 2010: one based on the USGS water-use compilation, another based on EIA data, and the third based on USGS model-estimated data. The withdrawal data varied widely. Many plants had three different withdrawal values, and for approximately 54% of the plants the largest withdrawal value was twice the smallest, or larger. The causes of discrepancies among withdrawal estimates included definitional differences, definitional noise, and various nondefinitional causes. The uncertainty in national totals can be characterized by the range among the three datasets, from 5,640 m 3 /s (129 billion gallons per day [bgd]) to 6,954 m 3 /s (158 bgd), or by the aggregate difference between the smallest and largest values at each plant, from 4,014 m 3 /s (92 bgd) to 8,590 m 3 /s (196 bgd). When used to assess the accuracy of reported values, the USGS model estimates identify plants that need to be reviewed.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

Velocity and Density Models Incorporating the Cascadia Subduction Zone for 3D Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations

In support of earthquake hazards and ground motion studies in the Pacific Northwest, three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity (3D Vp and Vs) and density (3D rho) models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone have been developed for the region encompassed from about 40.2°N to 50°N latitude, and from about -122°W to -129°W longitude. The model volume includes elevations from 0 km to 60 km (elevation is opposite of depth in model coordinates). Stephenson and Frankel (2003) presented preliminary ground motion simulations valid up to 0.1 Hz using an earlier version of these models. The version of the model volume described here includes more structural and geophysical detail, particularly in the Puget Lowland as required for scenario earthquake simulations in the development of the Seattle Urban Hazards Maps (Frankel and others, 2007). Olsen and others (in press) used the model volume discussed here to perform a Cascadia simulation up to 0.5 Hz using a Sumatra-Andaman Islands rupture history. As research from the EarthScope Program (http://www.earthscope.org ) is published, a wealth of important detail can be added to these model volumes, particularly to depths of the upper-mantle. However, at the time of development for this model version, no EarthScope-specific results were incorporated. This report is intended to be a reference for colleagues and associates who have used or are planning to use this preliminary model in their research. To this end, it is intended that these models will be considered a beginning template for a community velocity model of the Cascadia region as more data and results become available.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Three-dimensional ground-motion simulations of earthquakes for the Hanford area, Washington

This report describes the results of ground-motion simulations of earthquakes using three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) crustal models conducted for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Hanford facility, Washington, under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) guidelines. The first portion of this report demonstrates that the 3D seismic velocity model for the area produces synthetic seismograms with characteristics (spectral response values, duration) that better match those of the observed recordings of local earthquakes, compared to a 1D model with horizontal layers. The second part of the report compares the response spectra of synthetics from 3D and 1D models for moment magnitude (M) 6.6–6.8 earthquakes on three nearby faults and for a dipping plane wave source meant to approximate regional S-waves from a Cascadia great earthquake. The 1D models are specific to each site used for the PSHA. The use of the 3D model produces spectral response accelerations at periods of 0.5–2.0 seconds as much as a factor of 4.5 greater than those from the 1D models for the crustal fault sources. The spectral accelerations of the 3D synthetics for the Cascadia plane-wave source are as much as a factor of 9 greater than those from the 1D models. The differences between the spectral accelerations for the 3D and 1D models are most pronounced for sites with thicker supra-basalt sediments and for stations with earthquakes on the Rattlesnake Hills fault and for the Cascadia plane-wave source.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

GSFLOW - Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model Based on the Integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005)

The need to assess the effects of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow requires the development of models that couple two or more components of the hydrologic cycle. An integrated hydrologic model called GSFLOW (Ground-water and Surface-water FLOW) was developed to simulate coupled ground-water and surface-water resources. The new model is based on the integration of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW). Additional model components were developed, and existing components were modified, to facilitate integration of the models. Methods were developed to route flow among the PRMS Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) and between the HRUs and the MODFLOW finite-difference cells. This report describes the organization, concepts, design, and mathematical formulation of all GSFLOW model components. An important aspect of the integrated model design is its ability to conserve water mass and to provide comprehensive water budgets for a location of interest. This report includes descriptions of how water budgets are calculated for the integrated model and for individual model components. GSFLOW provides a robust modeling system for simulating flow through the hydrologic cycle, while allowing for future enhancements to incorporate other simulation techniques.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2018

Estimating vegetation biomass and cover across large plots in shrub and grass dominated drylands using terrestrial lidar and machine learning

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has been shown to enable an efficient, precise, and non-destructive inventory of vegetation structure at ranges up to hundreds of meters. We developed a method that leverages TLS collections with machine learning techniques to model and map canopy cover and biomass of several classes of short-stature vegetation across large plots. We collected high-definition TLS scans of 26 1-ha plots in desert grasslands and big sagebrush shrublands in southwest Idaho, USA. We used the Random Forests machine learning algorithm to develop decision tree models predicting the biomass and canopy cover of several vegetation classes from statistical descriptors of the aboveground heights of TLS points. Manual measurements of vegetation characteristics collected within each plot served as training and validation data. Models based on five or fewer TLS descriptors of vegetation heights were developed to predict the canopy cover fraction of shrubs (R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7%), annual grasses (R 2 = 0.70, RMSE = 21%), perennial grasses (R 2 = 0.36, RMSE = 12%), forbs (R 2 = 0.52, RMSE = 6%), bare earth or litter (R 2 = 0.49, RMSE = 19%), and the biomass of shrubs (R 2 = 0.71, RMSE = 175 g) and herbaceous vegetation (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 99 g) (all values reported are out-of-bag). Our models explained much of the variability between predictions and manual measurements, and yet we expect that future applications could produce even better results by reducing some of the methodological sources of error that we encountered. Our work demonstrates how TLS can be used efficiently to extend manual measurement of vegetation characteristics from small to large plots in grasslands and shrublands, with potential application to other similarly structured ecosystems. Our method shows that vegetation structural characteristics can be modeled without classifying and delineating individual plants, a challenging and time-consuming step common in previous methods applying TLS to vegetation inventory. Improving application of TLS to studies of shrub-steppe ecosystems will serve immediate management needs by enhancing vegetation inventories, environmental modeling studies, and the ability to train broader datasets collected from air and space.

Idaho↗
USGS2013

Quantifying wetland–aquifer interactions in a humid subtropical climate region: An integrated approach

Wetlands are widely recognized as sentinels of global climate change. Long-term monitoring data combined with process-based modeling has the potential to shed light on key processes and how they change over time. This paper reports the development and application of a simple water balance model based on long-term climate, soil, vegetation and hydrological dynamics to quantify groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions at the Norman landfill research site in Oklahoma, USA. Our integrated approach involved model evaluation by means of the following independent measurements: (a) groundwater inflow calculation using stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen ( 16 O, 18 O, 1 H, 2 H); (b) seepage flux measurements in the wetland hyporheic sediment; and (c) pan evaporation measurements on land and in the wetland. The integrated approach was useful for identifying the dominant hydrological processes at the site, including recharge and subsurface flows. Simulated recharge compared well with estimates obtained using isotope methods from previous studies and allowed us to identify specific annual signatures of this important process during the period of study (1997–2007). Similarly, observations of groundwater inflow and outflow rates to and from the wetland using seepage meters and isotope methods were found to be in good agreement with simulation results. Results indicate that subsurface flow components in the system are seasonal and readily respond to rainfall events. The wetland water balance is dominated by local groundwater inputs and regional groundwater flow contributes little to the overall water balance.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Comparisons of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) sea-ice projections in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) ecoregions during the 21st century

Climate model projections are commonly used to assess potential impacts of global warming on a breadth of social, economic, and environmental topics. Modeling centers throughout the world coordinate to apply a consistent suite of radiative forcing experiments so that all model outputs can be collectively analyzed and compared. Three generations of model outputs have been produced and made available to the scientific community through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): CMIP3 disseminated during the mid-2000s, CMIP5 during the early-2010s, and CMIP6 during the late-2010s. Twenty-first century sea-ice projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5 models have been used in Bayesian network assessments of how climate change could impact the future persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) throughout their range. In this report, we compare sea-ice projections by CMIP6 models to those of CMIP5 models in each of four polar bear ecoregions over the 21st century. We evaluate differences between the two CMIP generations with respect to other sources of variability that affect uncertainties of the model projections: (1) variability from different models; (2) variability from different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios; and (3) natural (internal) variability in the earth’s climate system. We found that natural variability as well as that attributable to models dominated uncertainties in sea-ice projections in all months and ecoregions during the first half of the 21st century, while emissions scenarios dominated uncertainties during the late 21st century. By comparison, we found only slight differences between the CMIP6 and CMIP5 model projections of sea ice. Applying CMIP6 instead of CMIP5 sea-ice projections to the polar bear Bayesian network model developed in 2016, therefore, would not qualitatively change the population status outcomes published therein.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology↗
USGS1982

Progress report to the Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department, year ending September 30, 1981

The objectives of the cooperative program with the Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department are described. Accomplishments within the program are summarized and reports are listed. The accomplishments include operation of a crest-stage station network, modeling of rainfall-runoff station data, publication of drainage-area reports for all major river basins in Arkansas, floodflow-characteristics reports at proposed bridge sites, furnishing peak-flow and stage information at many sites, and furnishing technical advice and field training to Highway and Transportation Department personnel. Program plans for the 1982 fiscal year are listed and discussed. Other water-resources programs and publications that may be of interest are discussed and all available flood-prone-area maps for Arkansas are listed.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Development and Application of Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Estimating Atrazine Concentration Distributions in Streams

Regression models were developed for predicting atrazine concentration distributions in rivers and streams, using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology. Separate regression equations were derived for each of nine percentiles of the annual distribution of atrazine concentrations and for the annual time-weighted mean atrazine concentration. In addition, seasonal models were developed for two specific periods of the year--the high season, when the highest atrazine concentrations are expected in streams, and the low season, when concentrations are expected to be low or undetectable. Various nationally available watershed parameters were used as explanatory variables, including atrazine use intensity, soil characteristics, hydrologic parameters, climate and weather variables, land use, and agricultural management practices. Concentration data from 112 river and stream stations sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment and National Stream Quality Accounting Network Programs were used for computing the concentration percentiles and mean concentrations used as the response variables in regression models. Tobit regression methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, were used for developing the models because some of the concentration values used for the response variables were censored (reported as less than a detection threshold). Data from 26 stations not used for model development were used for model validation. The annual models accounted for 62 to 77 percent of the variability in concentrations among the 112 model development stations. Atrazine use intensity (the amount of atrazine used in the watershed divided by watershed area) was the most important explanatory variable in all models, but additional watershed parameters significantly increased the amount of variability explained by the models. Predicted concentrations from all 10 models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentrations at most model development and model validation stations. Results for the two sets of seasonal models were similar. Concentration distributions derived from the seasonal-model predictions provided additional information compared to distributions derived from the annual models.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model (AIWUM) version 1.0—An agricultural water-use model developed for the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 1999–2017

Water use is a critical and often uncertain component of quantifying any water budget and securing reliable and sustainable water supplies. Recent water-level declines in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP), especially in the central part of the Mississippi Delta, pose a threat to water sustainability. Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model (AIWUM) 1.0, one of the first national agricultural water-use models that provides water use at the scale of most groundwater models, was developed and compared to other reported and estimated aquaculture and irrigation water-use values within the MAP study area for 1999 through 2017 to improve water-use estimates needed as input to a hydrologic decision-support system in the MAP. Results indicate annual total water-use estimates from 1999 through 2017 ranged from about 5 to 13 billion gallons per day and, on average, a majority of the water use was applied to rice (about 51 percent), followed by soybeans (about 26 percent), and less than (<) 10 percent each was applied to aquaculture, corn, cotton, and other crops. Comparisons indicated that annual total water-use estimates from AIWUM 1.0 were smaller than or comparable to all other sources of water-use data. Although there is disagreement at the monthly timescale in estimates in the Mississippi Delta within each part of the growing season, the annual total water use is comparable between AIWUM 1.0 and the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater model 2.1. Estimates from AIWUM 1.0 could be used in models at all scales (for example, local, regional, national) and could provide a nationally consistent methodology in estimating water use driven by regional crop-specific withdrawal rates.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗
USGS2002

A model project for exploring the role of sustainability science in a citizen-centered, collaborative decision-making process

The role of science in society is evolving as we enter the 21st century. The report, Science — The Endless Frontier (Bush 1990[1945]), outlined a model of national scientific research that served the country for 50 years. The contract between science and society established in that report stipulated that science is essential and that basic research meets national needs (Pielke and Byerly 1998). This stipulation and the abundant — seemingly unlimited and unquestioned — funding for research during the Cold War caused many scientists to come to believe that funding for science was an entitlement independent of societal needs. Implicit in this belief is that science alone can solve society’s problems. We now are learning that many policy issues that involve science involve diverse economic, political, social, and aesthetic values as well, and rarely, if ever, is scientific information alone the basis of public policy (e.g., see Sarewitz 1996a, 1996b; Frodeman 1997). Moreover, resources are increasingly more limited and many in society are questioning the value of public-supported science.

Human Ecology Review↗
USGS1997

Numerical simulation of ground-water flow through glacial deposits and crystalline bedrock in the Mirror Lake area, Grafton County, New Hampshire

This report documents the development of a computer model to simulate steady-state (long-term average) flow of ground water in the vicinity of Mirror Lake, which lies at the eastern end of the Hubbard Brook valley in central New Hampshire. The 10-km2 study area includes Mirror Lake, the three streams that flow into Mirror Lake, Leeman's Brook, Paradise Brook, and parts of Hubbard Brook and the Pemigewasset River. The topography of the area is characterized by steep hillsides and relatively flat valleys. Major hydrogeologic units include glacial deposits, composed of till containing pockets of sand and gravel, and fractured crystalline bedrock, composed of schist intruded by granite, pegmatite, and lamprophyre. Ground water occurs in both the glacial deposits and bedrock. Precipitation and snowmelt infiltrate to the water table on the hillsides, flow downslope through the saturated glacial deposits and fractured bedrock, and discharge to streams and to Mirror Lake. The model domain includes the glacial deposits, the uppermost 150m of bedrock, Mirror Lake, the layer of organic sediments on the lake bottom, and streams and rivers within the study area. A streamflow routing package was included in the model to simulate baseflow in streams and interaction between streams and ground water. Recharge from precipitation is assumed to be areally uniform, and riparian evapotranspiration along stream banks is assumed negligible. The spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity is represented by dividing the model domain into several zones, each having uniform hydraulic properties. Local variations in recharge and hydraulic conductivities are ignored; therefore, the simulation results characterize the general ground-water system, not local details of ground-water movement. The model was calibrated using a nonlinear regression method to match hydraulic heads measured in piezometers and wells, and baseflow in three inlet streams to Mirror Lake. Model calibration indicates that recharge from precipitation to the water table is 26 to 28 cm/year. Hydraulic conductivities are 1.7 x 10-6 to 2.7 x 10-6 m/s for glacial deposits, about 3 x 10-7 m/s for bedrock beneath lower hillsides and valleys, and about 6x10-8 m/s for bedrock beneath upper hillsides and hilltops. Analysis of parameter uncertainty indicates that the above values are well constrained, at least within the context of regression analysis. In the regression, several attributes of the ground-water flow model are assumed perfectly known. The hydraulic conductivity for bedrock beneath upper hillsides and hilltops was determined from few data, and additional data are needed to further confirm this result. Model fit was not improved by introducing a 10-to-1 ration of horizontal-to-vertical anisotropy in the hydraulic conductivity of the glacial deposits, or by varying hydraulic conductivity with depth in the modeled part (uppermost 150m) of the bedrock. The calibrated model was used to delineate the Mirror Lake ground-water basin, defined as the volumes of subsurface through which ground water flows from the water table to Mirror Lake or its inlet streams. Results indicate that Mirror Lake and its inlet streams drain an area of ground-water recharge that is about 1.5 times the area of the surface-water basin. The ground-water basin extends far up the hillside on the northwestern part of the study area. Ground water from this area flows at depth under Norris Brook to discharge into Mirror Lake or its inlet streams. As a result, the Mirror Lake ground-water basin extends beneath the adjacent ground-water basin that drains into Norris Brook. Model simulation indicates that approximately 300,000 m3/year of precipitation recharges the Mirror Lake ground-water basin. About half the recharge enters the basin in areas where the simulated water table lies in glacial deposits; the other half enters the basin in areas where the simulated water table lies in be

New Hampshire↗